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Arizona Wildcats v Vanderbilt Commodores — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 23 November 2026 · NCAAW · 2027

NCAAW results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Arizona Wildcats win
2.1%
Draw
0.0%
Vanderbilt Commodores win
97.9%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 66.33–88.72 66-89 0% 49% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vanderbilt Commodores to score 100+ 12.4% 13.8% 0.5% 28.00× 7.24
Arizona Wildcats to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 1.8% 0.20× 283.35
Arizona Wildcats to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.64× 283.36
Arizona Wildcats to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 2.91× 283.36
Arizona Wildcats to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 7.58× 283.36
Vanderbilt Commodores to score 110+ 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 4.74× 283.11
Vanderbilt Commodores to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 18.95× 283.35
Vanderbilt Commodores to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 37.89× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 6.32× 283.35
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vanderbilt Commodores to win H1 87.8% 88.7% 39.9% 2.22× 1.13
Arizona Wildcats to win H1 10.0% 10.7% 56.4% 0.19× 9.32
H1 tied 2.2% 3.9% 3.7% 1.05× 25.87
H1 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 86.5 88.9% 87.7% 98.1% 0.89× 1.14
H1 over 62.5 87.2% 87.7% 46.3% 1.89× 1.14
H1 under 82.5 79.7% 77.4% 96.2% 0.80× 1.29
H1 over 66.5 77.1% 77.4% 32.9% 2.35× 1.29
H1 under 79.5 70.4% 73.5% 93.9% 0.78× 1.36
H1 over 69.5 67.2% 67.4% 23.8% 2.83× 1.48
H1 under 77.5 63.3% 62.7% 91.6% 0.68× 1.59
H1 over 71.5 59.8% 58.2% 18.6% 3.14× 1.72
H1 under 75.5 55.7% 58.2% 88.8% 0.66× 1.72
H1 over 73.5 52.1% 52.6% 14.4% 3.66× 1.90
H1 under 74.5 51.8% 52.6% 87.2% 0.60× 1.90
H1 under 73.5 47.9% 47.4% 85.6% 0.55× 2.11
H1 over 74.5 48.2% 47.4% 12.8% 3.69× 2.11
H1 over 75.5 44.3% 41.8% 11.2% 3.74× 2.39
H1 under 71.5 40.2% 41.8% 81.4% 0.51× 2.39
H1 over 77.5 36.7% 37.3% 8.4% 4.45× 2.68
H1 under 69.5 32.8% 32.6% 76.2% 0.43× 3.07
H1 over 79.5 29.6% 26.5% 6.1% 4.33× 3.77
H1 under 66.5 22.9% 22.6% 67.1% 0.34× 4.43
H1 over 82.5 20.3% 22.6% 3.8% 5.98× 4.43
H1 under 62.5 12.8% 12.3% 53.7% 0.23× 8.14
H1 over 86.5 11.1% 12.3% 1.9% 6.63× 8.14
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vanderbilt Commodores to win H2 89.2% 84.2% 40.6% 2.08× 1.19
Arizona Wildcats to win H2 8.9% 11.3% 56.0% 0.20× 8.83
H2 tied 1.9% 3.9% 3.4% 1.16× 25.37
H2 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 93.5 87.7% 85.2% 97.0% 0.88× 1.17
H2 over 69.5 86.1% 85.2% 45.2% 1.89× 1.17
H2 under 89.5 78.5% 75.8% 94.8% 0.80× 1.32
H2 over 73.5 76.1% 75.8% 32.9% 2.30× 1.32
H2 under 86.5 69.4% 66.4% 92.2% 0.72× 1.51
H2 over 76.5 66.6% 66.4% 24.4% 2.72× 1.51
H2 under 84.5 62.6% 61.6% 90.3% 0.68× 1.62
H2 over 78.5 59.5% 57.3% 19.9% 2.89× 1.74
H2 under 82.5 55.3% 57.3% 87.4% 0.66× 1.74
H2 over 80.5 52.2% 52.4% 16.0% 3.28× 1.91
H2 under 81.5 51.6% 52.4% 85.8% 0.61× 1.91
H2 under 80.5 47.8% 47.6% 84.0% 0.57× 2.10
H2 over 81.5 48.4% 47.6% 14.2% 3.35× 2.10
H2 over 82.5 44.7% 42.7% 12.6% 3.39× 2.34
H2 under 78.5 40.5% 42.7% 80.1% 0.53× 2.35
H2 over 84.5 37.4% 38.4% 9.7% 3.95× 2.61
H2 under 76.5 33.4% 33.6% 75.6% 0.44× 2.97
H2 over 86.5 30.6% 33.6% 7.8% 4.32× 2.97
H2 under 73.5 23.9% 24.2% 67.1% 0.36× 4.13
H2 over 89.5 21.5% 24.2% 5.2% 4.65× 4.13
H2 under 69.5 13.9% 14.8% 54.8% 0.27× 6.76
H2 over 93.5 12.3% 14.8% 3.0% 4.93× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vanderbilt Commodores leading at half time 87.8% 89.4% 39.9% 2.24× 1.12
Arizona Wildcats leading at half time 10.0% 10.2% 56.4% 0.18× 9.79
Level at half time 2.2% 3.8% 3.7% 1.03× 26.43
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vanderbilt Commodores +6.5 99.5% 97.4% 52.4% 1.86× 1.03
Vanderbilt Commodores +7.5 99.6% 97.4% 55.2% 1.76× 1.03
Vanderbilt Commodores +8.5 99.7% 97.4% 58.0% 1.68× 1.03
Vanderbilt Commodores +9.5 99.8% 97.4% 60.7% 1.61× 1.03
Vanderbilt Commodores +10.5 99.8% 97.4% 63.2% 1.54× 1.03
Vanderbilt Commodores +12.5 99.9% 97.4% 67.9% 1.44× 1.03
Vanderbilt Commodores +14.5 99.9% 97.4% 72.1% 1.35× 1.03
Vanderbilt Commodores +16.5 100.0% 97.4% 75.7% 1.29× 1.03
Vanderbilt Commodores +18.5 100.0% 97.4% 79.3% 1.23× 1.03
Vanderbilt Commodores +20.5 100.0% 97.4% 82.0% 1.19× 1.03
Vanderbilt Commodores +1.5 98.3% 97.4% 41.3% 2.36× 1.03
Vanderbilt Commodores −1.5 97.3% 97.4% 38.8% 2.51× 1.03
Vanderbilt Commodores +2.5 98.6% 97.4% 43.3% 2.25× 1.03
Vanderbilt Commodores −2.5 96.6% 97.4% 36.7% 2.66× 1.03
Vanderbilt Commodores +3.5 98.9% 97.4% 45.8% 2.13× 1.03
Vanderbilt Commodores −3.5 95.8% 97.4% 34.3% 2.84× 1.03
Vanderbilt Commodores +4.5 99.2% 97.4% 47.8% 2.04× 1.03
Vanderbilt Commodores +5.5 99.3% 97.4% 50.3% 1.94× 1.03
Vanderbilt Commodores −4.5 94.9% 91.1% 32.2% 2.83× 1.10
Vanderbilt Commodores −5.5 93.8% 91.1% 29.9% 3.05× 1.10
Vanderbilt Commodores −6.5 92.5% 91.1% 27.7% 3.29× 1.10
Vanderbilt Commodores −7.5 91.1% 91.1% 25.5% 3.58× 1.10
Vanderbilt Commodores −8.5 89.6% 85.9% 23.5% 3.65× 1.16
Vanderbilt Commodores −9.5 87.8% 85.9% 21.3% 4.03× 1.16
Vanderbilt Commodores −10.5 85.9% 85.9% 19.6% 4.38× 1.16
Vanderbilt Commodores −12.5 81.4% 81.1% 16.2% 4.99× 1.23
Vanderbilt Commodores −14.5 76.2% 76.5% 13.3% 5.77× 1.31
Vanderbilt Commodores −16.5 70.2% 71.6% 10.9% 6.59× 1.40
Vanderbilt Commodores −18.5 63.8% 61.9% 8.9% 6.94× 1.62
Vanderbilt Commodores −20.5 56.9% 57.1% 7.3% 7.84× 1.75
Arizona Wildcats +20.5 43.1% 42.9% 92.7% 0.46× 2.33
Arizona Wildcats +18.5 36.2% 38.1% 91.1% 0.42× 2.63
Arizona Wildcats +16.5 29.8% 28.4% 89.1% 0.32× 3.53
Arizona Wildcats +14.5 23.8% 23.5% 86.7% 0.27× 4.25
Arizona Wildcats +12.5 18.6% 18.9% 83.8% 0.23× 5.29
Arizona Wildcats +10.5 14.1% 14.1% 80.4% 0.18× 7.09
Arizona Wildcats +9.5 12.2% 14.1% 78.7% 0.18× 7.09
Arizona Wildcats +8.5 10.4% 14.1% 76.5% 0.18× 7.09
Arizona Wildcats +7.5 8.9% 8.9% 74.5% 0.12× 11.25
Arizona Wildcats +5.5 6.2% 8.9% 70.1% 0.13× 11.25
Arizona Wildcats +6.5 7.5% 8.9% 72.3% 0.12× 11.25
Arizona Wildcats +4.5 5.1% 8.9% 67.8% 0.13× 11.25
Arizona Wildcats −1.5 1.7% 2.6% 58.7% 0.04× 38.73
Arizona Wildcats +1.5 2.7% 2.6% 61.2% 0.04× 38.73
Arizona Wildcats −2.5 1.4% 2.6% 56.7% 0.05× 38.73
Arizona Wildcats +2.5 3.4% 2.6% 63.3% 0.04× 38.73
Arizona Wildcats −3.5 1.1% 2.6% 54.2% 0.05× 38.74
Arizona Wildcats +3.5 4.2% 2.6% 65.7% 0.04× 38.72
Arizona Wildcats −4.5 0.8% 2.6% 52.2% 0.05× 38.74
Arizona Wildcats −5.5 0.7% 2.6% 49.7% 0.05× 38.74
Arizona Wildcats −6.5 0.5% 2.6% 47.6% 0.05× 38.74
Arizona Wildcats −7.5 0.4% 2.6% 44.8% 0.06× 38.74
Arizona Wildcats −8.5 0.3% 2.6% 42.0% 0.06× 38.74
Arizona Wildcats −9.5 0.2% 2.6% 39.3% 0.07× 38.74
Arizona Wildcats −10.5 0.2% 2.6% 36.8% 0.07× 38.74
Arizona Wildcats −12.5 0.1% 2.6% 32.1% 0.08× 38.74
Arizona Wildcats −14.5 0.1% 2.6% 27.9% 0.09× 38.74
Arizona Wildcats −16.5 0.0% 2.6% 24.3% 0.11× 38.74
Arizona Wildcats −18.5 0.0% 2.6% 20.7% 0.12× 38.74
Arizona Wildcats −20.5 0.0% 2.6% 18.0% 0.14× 38.74
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 75.6% 71.6% 66.7% 1.07× 1.40
1st half highest scoring 24.4% 28.4% 33.3% 0.85× 3.53
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 highest scoring 34.0% 31.9% 31.3% 1.02× 3.14
Q4 highest scoring 35.8% 28.6% 31.2% 0.92× 3.50
Q2 highest scoring 14.3% 18.3% 17.9% 1.03× 5.46
Q1 highest scoring 15.9% 18.3% 19.6% 0.94× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vanderbilt Commodores at HT / Vanderbilt Commodores at FT 87.1% 89.1% 30.1% 2.96× 1.12
Arizona Wildcats at HT / Vanderbilt Commodores at FT 8.8% 8.3% 8.2% 1.01× 12.08
Level at HT / Vanderbilt Commodores at FT 2.0% 2.1% 1.8% 1.20× 47.76
Arizona Wildcats at HT / Arizona Wildcats at FT 1.3% 2.1% 48.3% 0.04× 47.77
Level at HT / Arizona Wildcats at FT 0.1% 2.1% 1.9% 1.09× 47.79
Vanderbilt Commodores at HT / Arizona Wildcats at FT 0.7% 2.1% 9.8% 0.21× 47.78
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vanderbilt Commodores to win 97.9% 97.5% 40.1% 2.43× 1.03
Arizona Wildcats to win 2.1% 2.5% 59.9% 0.04× 39.37
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Arizona Wildcats even 50.0% 50.5% 49.4% 1.02× 1.98
Vanderbilt Commodores even 50.0% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
Total points odd 50.2% 50.5% 51.5% 0.98× 1.98
Arizona Wildcats odd 50.0% 49.5% 50.6% 0.98× 2.02
Vanderbilt Commodores odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
Total points even 49.8% 49.5% 48.5% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 98.3% 97.0% 95.6% 1.02× 1.03
Match to go to overtime 1.7% 3.0% 4.4% 0.67× 33.55
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vanderbilt Commodores to win Q1 77.4% 79.9% 40.4% 1.98× 1.25
Arizona Wildcats to win Q1 18.2% 15.7% 54.7% 0.29× 6.36
Q1 tied 4.4% 4.2% 4.9% 0.85× 23.96
Q1 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 under 45.5 88.9% 87.4% 97.1% 0.90× 1.14
Q1 over 29.5 87.2% 87.4% 56.9% 1.54× 1.14
Q1 under 42.5 78.2% 76.9% 93.6% 0.82× 1.30
Q1 over 32.5 75.6% 76.9% 40.9% 1.88× 1.30
Q1 under 40.5 68.6% 67.6% 89.9% 0.75× 1.48
Q1 over 34.5 65.5% 67.6% 31.5% 2.14× 1.48
Q1 under 38.5 57.5% 58.6% 84.8% 0.69× 1.71
Q1 over 36.5 54.2% 52.7% 22.6% 2.33× 1.90
Q1 under 37.5 51.7% 52.7% 81.6% 0.65× 1.90
Q1 over 37.5 48.3% 47.3% 18.4% 2.57× 2.11
Q1 under 36.5 45.8% 47.3% 77.4% 0.61× 2.11
Q1 over 38.5 42.5% 41.4% 15.2% 2.72× 2.42
Q1 under 34.5 34.5% 32.4% 68.5% 0.47× 3.08
Q1 over 40.5 31.4% 32.4% 10.1% 3.21× 3.08
Q1 under 32.5 24.4% 23.1% 59.1% 0.39× 4.33
Q1 over 42.5 21.8% 23.1% 6.4% 3.62× 4.33
Q1 under 29.5 12.8% 12.6% 43.1% 0.29× 7.95
Q1 over 45.5 11.1% 12.6% 2.9% 4.30× 7.95
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vanderbilt Commodores to win Q2 76.7% 80.7% 41.5% 1.95× 1.24
Arizona Wildcats to win Q2 18.9% 14.7% 52.9% 0.28× 6.81
Q2 tied 4.4% 4.4% 5.7% 0.77× 22.89
Q2 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 under 45.5 89.9% 87.3% 97.5% 0.90× 1.15
Q2 over 29.5 86.0% 87.3% 55.8% 1.56× 1.15
Q2 under 42.5 79.8% 76.8% 94.3% 0.81× 1.30
Q2 over 32.5 73.8% 72.0% 39.2% 1.83× 1.39
Q2 under 40.5 70.6% 72.0% 90.8% 0.79× 1.39
Q2 over 34.5 63.4% 60.7% 29.9% 2.03× 1.65
Q2 under 38.5 59.7% 58.2% 85.6% 0.68× 1.72
Q2 under 37.5 54.0% 52.7% 82.3% 0.64× 1.90
Q2 over 36.5 51.9% 52.7% 21.3% 2.47× 1.90
Q2 under 36.5 48.1% 47.3% 78.7% 0.60× 2.11
Q2 over 37.5 46.0% 47.3% 17.7% 2.68× 2.11
Q2 over 38.5 40.3% 41.8% 14.4% 2.90× 2.39
Q2 under 34.5 36.6% 39.3% 70.1% 0.56× 2.55
Q2 over 40.5 29.4% 28.0% 9.2% 3.05× 3.57
Q2 under 32.5 26.2% 28.0% 60.8% 0.46× 3.57
Q2 over 42.5 20.2% 23.2% 5.7% 4.09× 4.31
Q2 under 29.5 14.0% 12.7% 44.2% 0.29× 7.89
Q2 over 45.5 10.1% 12.7% 2.5% 5.15× 7.90
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vanderbilt Commodores to win Q3 78.9% 81.6% 41.8% 1.95× 1.23
Arizona Wildcats to win Q3 17.0% 15.1% 53.3% 0.28× 6.64
Q3 tied 4.1% 4.3% 4.9% 0.86× 23.45
Q3 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 over 32.5 87.5% 87.2% 56.1% 1.56× 1.15
Q3 under 48.5 87.4% 87.2% 97.2% 0.90× 1.15
Q3 over 35.5 76.3% 77.3% 40.3% 1.92× 1.29
Q3 under 45.5 76.3% 77.3% 93.8% 0.82× 1.29
Q3 over 37.5 66.7% 67.8% 30.3% 2.24× 1.48
Q3 under 43.5 66.6% 67.8% 90.2% 0.75× 1.48
Q3 over 39.5 55.7% 58.4% 22.1% 2.64× 1.71
Q3 under 41.5 55.7% 58.4% 85.1% 0.69× 1.71
Q3 over 40.5 50.0% 52.3% 18.1% 2.88× 1.91
Q3 under 40.5 50.0% 47.7% 81.9% 0.58× 2.10
Q3 under 39.5 44.3% 41.6% 77.9% 0.53× 2.40
Q3 over 41.5 44.3% 41.6% 14.9% 2.80× 2.40
Q3 under 37.5 33.3% 32.2% 69.7% 0.46× 3.10
Q3 over 43.5 33.4% 32.2% 9.8% 3.28× 3.10
Q3 under 35.5 23.7% 22.7% 59.7% 0.38× 4.40
Q3 over 45.5 23.7% 22.7% 6.2% 3.67× 4.40
Q3 over 48.5 12.6% 12.8% 2.8% 4.50× 7.83
Q3 under 32.5 12.5% 12.8% 43.9% 0.29× 7.83
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vanderbilt Commodores to win Q4 78.5% 71.6% 41.5% 1.72× 1.40
Arizona Wildcats to win Q4 17.5% 22.6% 52.8% 0.43× 4.42
Q4 tied 4.0% 5.2% 5.7% 0.91× 19.30
Q4 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 over 32.5 86.3% 85.6% 55.4% 1.54× 1.17
Q4 under 48.5 85.8% 85.6% 96.3% 0.89× 1.17
Q4 over 35.5 75.4% 76.9% 40.6% 1.89× 1.30
Q4 under 45.5 74.7% 71.5% 92.4% 0.77× 1.40
Q4 over 37.5 66.2% 67.4% 31.2% 2.16× 1.48
Q4 under 43.5 65.4% 67.4% 88.6% 0.76× 1.48
Q4 over 39.5 55.8% 58.4% 23.0% 2.54× 1.71
Q4 under 41.5 55.0% 52.5% 83.6% 0.63× 1.91
Q4 over 40.5 50.4% 52.5% 19.4% 2.71× 1.91
Q4 under 40.5 49.6% 47.5% 80.6% 0.59× 2.11
Q4 over 41.5 45.0% 47.5% 16.4% 2.90× 2.11
Q4 under 39.5 44.2% 41.6% 77.0% 0.54× 2.40
Q4 over 43.5 34.6% 32.6% 11.4% 2.86× 3.07
Q4 under 37.5 33.8% 32.6% 68.8% 0.47× 3.07
Q4 over 45.5 25.3% 28.5% 7.6% 3.73× 3.51
Q4 under 35.5 24.6% 23.1% 59.4% 0.39× 4.33
Q4 over 48.5 14.2% 14.4% 3.7% 3.92× 6.95
Q4 under 32.5 13.7% 14.4% 44.6% 0.32× 6.95
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vanderbilt Commodores under 99.5 87.6% 83.9% 99.5% 0.84× 1.19
Arizona Wildcats under 76.5 85.9% 83.9% 75.4% 1.11× 1.19
Arizona Wildcats over 56.5 85.0% 80.7% 79.5% 1.01× 1.24
Vanderbilt Commodores over 79.5 84.2% 80.7% 10.3% 7.81× 1.24
Vanderbilt Commodores under 96.5 79.7% 75.1% 99.2% 0.76× 1.33
Arizona Wildcats over 59.5 76.4% 75.1% 72.2% 1.04× 1.33
Arizona Wildcats under 73.5 77.6% 75.1% 68.5% 1.10× 1.33
Vanderbilt Commodores over 82.5 75.2% 75.1% 7.0% 10.78× 1.33
Vanderbilt Commodores under 94.5 73.1% 70.7% 98.9% 0.71× 1.41
Arizona Wildcats under 71.5 70.8% 70.7% 63.0% 1.12× 1.41
Arizona Wildcats over 61.5 69.4% 66.4% 66.9% 0.99× 1.51
Vanderbilt Commodores over 84.5 67.9% 66.4% 5.3% 12.46× 1.51
Vanderbilt Commodores under 92.5 65.6% 66.4% 98.5% 0.67× 1.51
Arizona Wildcats under 69.5 63.2% 61.2% 57.4% 1.07× 1.63
Arizona Wildcats over 63.5 61.6% 61.2% 61.5% 1.00× 1.63
Vanderbilt Commodores over 86.5 59.8% 57.1% 3.9% 14.56× 1.75
Vanderbilt Commodores under 90.5 57.3% 57.1% 97.8% 0.58× 1.75
Arizona Wildcats under 67.5 55.0% 52.3% 51.3% 1.02× 1.91
Arizona Wildcats over 65.5 53.4% 52.3% 55.3% 0.95× 1.91
Vanderbilt Commodores over 88.5 51.2% 52.3% 2.9% 18.10× 1.91
Vanderbilt Commodores under 89.5 53.1% 52.3% 97.6% 0.54× 1.91
Arizona Wildcats under 66.5 50.8% 52.3% 48.2% 1.09× 1.91
Arizona Wildcats over 66.5 49.2% 47.7% 51.8% 0.92× 2.09
Arizona Wildcats under 65.5 46.6% 47.7% 44.7% 1.07× 2.09
Vanderbilt Commodores under 88.5 48.8% 47.7% 97.1% 0.49× 2.09
Vanderbilt Commodores over 89.5 46.9% 47.7% 2.4% 19.49× 2.09
Arizona Wildcats over 67.5 45.0% 47.7% 48.7% 0.98× 2.09
Vanderbilt Commodores over 90.5 42.7% 42.9% 2.2% 19.94× 2.33
Vanderbilt Commodores under 86.5 40.2% 42.9% 96.1% 0.45× 2.33
Arizona Wildcats under 63.5 38.4% 38.8% 38.5% 1.01× 2.58
Arizona Wildcats over 69.5 36.8% 38.8% 42.6% 0.91× 2.58
Vanderbilt Commodores over 92.5 34.4% 33.6% 1.5% 22.14× 2.98
Vanderbilt Commodores under 84.5 32.1% 33.6% 94.7% 0.36× 2.98
Arizona Wildcats under 61.5 30.6% 33.6% 33.1% 1.02× 2.98
Arizona Wildcats over 71.5 29.2% 29.3% 37.0% 0.79× 3.42
Vanderbilt Commodores over 94.5 26.9% 29.3% 1.1% 27.82× 3.42
Vanderbilt Commodores under 82.5 24.8% 24.9% 93.0% 0.27× 4.02
Arizona Wildcats under 59.5 23.6% 24.9% 27.8% 0.89× 4.02
Arizona Wildcats over 73.5 22.4% 24.9% 31.5% 0.79× 4.02
Vanderbilt Commodores over 96.5 20.3% 24.9% 0.8% 31.80× 4.02
Vanderbilt Commodores under 79.5 15.8% 19.3% 89.7% 0.22× 5.18
Arizona Wildcats under 56.5 15.0% 19.3% 20.5% 0.94× 5.18
Arizona Wildcats over 76.5 14.1% 16.1% 24.6% 0.66× 6.21
Vanderbilt Commodores over 99.5 12.4% 16.1% 0.5% 32.60× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 175.5 points 91.2% 88.8% 98.6% 0.90× 1.13
Over 135.5 points 90.4% 88.8% 37.6% 2.36× 1.13
Under 170.5 points 84.6% 80.6% 97.7% 0.82× 1.24
Over 140.5 points 83.4% 80.6% 28.2% 2.85× 1.24
Under 165.5 points 75.5% 75.6% 96.3% 0.79× 1.32
Over 145.5 points 73.8% 70.8% 20.5% 3.46× 1.41
Under 162.5 points 68.8% 65.9% 95.0% 0.69× 1.52
Over 148.5 points 66.9% 65.9% 16.3% 4.04× 1.52
Under 160.5 points 64.0% 61.5% 93.9% 0.65× 1.63
Over 150.5 points 62.0% 61.5% 13.9% 4.41× 1.63
Under 158.5 points 58.9% 56.5% 92.7% 0.61× 1.77
Over 152.5 points 56.8% 56.5% 11.9% 4.75× 1.77
Under 156.5 points 53.7% 52.3% 91.3% 0.57× 1.91
Over 154.5 points 51.6% 52.3% 10.2% 5.15× 1.91
Under 155.5 points 51.1% 52.3% 90.7% 0.58× 1.91
Over 155.5 points 48.9% 47.7% 9.3% 5.13× 2.10
Under 154.5 points 48.4% 47.7% 89.8% 0.53× 2.10
Over 156.5 points 46.3% 47.7% 8.7% 5.50× 2.10
Under 152.5 points 43.2% 43.5% 88.1% 0.49× 2.30
Over 158.5 points 41.1% 43.5% 7.3% 5.96× 2.30
Under 150.5 points 38.0% 38.5% 86.1% 0.45× 2.60
Over 160.5 points 36.0% 38.5% 6.1% 6.32× 2.60
Under 148.5 points 33.1% 34.1% 83.7% 0.41× 2.93
Over 162.5 points 31.2% 34.1% 5.0% 6.78× 2.93
Under 145.5 points 26.2% 29.2% 79.5% 0.37× 3.43
Over 165.5 points 24.5% 24.4% 3.7% 6.58× 4.10
Under 140.5 points 16.6% 19.4% 71.8% 0.27× 5.15
Over 170.5 points 15.4% 19.4% 2.3% 8.38× 5.15
Under 135.5 points 9.6% 11.2% 62.4% 0.18× 8.96
Over 175.5 points 8.8% 11.2% 1.4% 8.20× 8.96
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vanderbilt Commodores to win both halves 77.6% 77.1% 20.4% 3.79× 1.30
Arizona Wildcats to win both halves 0.4% 3.0% 36.0% 0.08× 33.82
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Vanderbilt Commodores by 26+ 39.2% 40.1% 4.6% 8.70× 2.49
Vanderbilt Commodores by 21-25 17.7% 16.8% 2.7% 6.27× 5.97
Vanderbilt Commodores by 16-20 16.4% 16.8% 4.8% 3.53× 5.97
Vanderbilt Commodores by 11-15 12.6% 12.3% 7.6% 1.62× 8.11
Vanderbilt Commodores by 6-10 7.9% 7.5% 10.3% 0.72× 13.40
Vanderbilt Commodores by 1-5 4.1% 2.0% 10.2% 0.20× 49.29
Arizona Wildcats by 1-5 1.4% 2.0% 10.2% 0.20× 49.32
Arizona Wildcats by 6-10 0.5% 2.0% 12.9% 0.16× 49.32
Arizona Wildcats by 11-15 0.1% 2.0% 10.8% 0.19× 49.33
Arizona Wildcats by 16-20 0.0% 2.0% 8.0% 0.25× 49.33
Arizona Wildcats by 21-25 0.0% 2.0% 5.4% 0.38× 49.33
Arizona Wildcats by 26+ 0.0% 2.0% 12.6% 0.16× 49.33
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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