Atlanta Hawks v Miami Heat — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 28 October 2026 · NBA · 2027

NBA results-only Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 03:45 UTC

Atlanta Hawks

23:00 UTC

Miami Heat

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Atlanta Hawks win

56.3%

Draw

0.0%

Miami Heat win

43.7%

56044

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
nba-normal	56044	123.01–120.78	123-121 0%	48%	0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks to score 100+	97.7%	94.9%	89.3%	1.06×	1.05
Miami Heat to score 100+	96.5%	94.9%	85.9%	1.10×	1.05
Both sides to score 100+	94.4%	90.3%	77.5%	1.17×	1.11
Atlanta Hawks to score 110+	87.3%	85.0%	67.0%	1.27×	1.18
Miami Heat to score 110+	83.1%	79.3%	60.9%	1.30×	1.26
Atlanta Hawks to score 120+	61.8%	61.8%	36.5%	1.69×	1.62
Miami Heat to score 120+	54.2%	52.4%	29.7%	1.77×	1.91
Atlanta Hawks to score 130+	29.3%	27.6%	12.8%	2.15×	3.63
Miami Heat to score 130+	22.8%	22.0%	10.0%	2.21×	4.55

H1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks to win H1	52.3%	51.9%	52.8%	0.98×	1.93
Miami Heat to win H1	44.2%	42.7%	44.1%	0.97×	2.34
H1 tied	3.5%	3.9%	3.1%	1.25×	25.86

H1 total 32

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H1 over 107.5	82.4%	83.2%	70.4%	1.18×	1.20
H1 under 135.5	83.1%	82.5%	94.8%	0.87×	1.21
H1 over 111.5	81.3%	82.5%	59.0%	1.40×	1.21
H1 under 127.5	72.2%	74.0%	84.8%	0.87×	1.35
H1 under 131.5	74.2%	73.5%	91.0%	0.81×	1.36
H1 over 115.5	71.9%	73.5%	46.4%	1.58×	1.36
H1 over 114.5	65.5%	68.0%	49.6%	1.37×	1.47
H1 under 128.5	66.3%	67.4%	86.7%	0.78×	1.48
H1 over 118.5	63.6%	62.7%	37.1%	1.69×	1.59
H1 under 126.5	60.5%	62.7%	82.8%	0.76×	1.59
H1 over 120.5	57.7%	58.2%	31.6%	1.84×	1.72
H1 over 116.5	59.8%	58.2%	43.4%	1.34×	1.72
H1 under 124.5	54.5%	52.6%	78.4%	0.67×	1.90
H1 over 122.5	51.7%	52.6%	26.0%	2.02×	1.90
H1 under 123.5	51.4%	52.6%	76.0%	0.69×	1.90
H1 over 119.5	50.8%	52.5%	34.1%	1.54×	1.90
H1 under 119.5	49.2%	47.5%	65.9%	0.72×	2.11
H1 over 123.5	48.6%	47.4%	24.0%	1.97×	2.11
H1 under 122.5	48.3%	47.4%	74.0%	0.64×	2.11
H1 over 124.5	45.5%	47.4%	21.7%	2.19×	2.11
H1 under 116.5	40.2%	41.8%	56.6%	0.74×	2.39
H1 under 120.5	42.3%	41.8%	68.4%	0.61×	2.39
H1 over 126.5	39.5%	37.3%	17.2%	2.17×	2.68
H1 under 118.5	36.4%	37.3%	62.9%	0.59×	2.68
H1 over 128.5	33.7%	32.6%	13.3%	2.45×	3.07
H1 under 114.5	34.5%	32.0%	50.4%	0.63×	3.13
H1 under 115.5	28.1%	26.5%	53.6%	0.49×	3.77
H1 over 131.5	25.8%	26.5%	9.0%	2.94×	3.77
H1 over 127.5	27.8%	26.0%	15.2%	1.72×	3.84
H1 under 111.5	18.7%	17.5%	41.0%	0.43×	5.72
H1 over 135.5	16.9%	17.5%	5.2%	3.38×	5.73
H1 under 107.5	17.6%	16.8%	29.6%	0.57×	5.96

H2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks to win H2	52.3%	51.2%	51.6%	0.99×	1.95
Miami Heat to win H2	44.2%	43.6%	44.7%	0.97×	2.30
H2 tied	3.5%	3.9%	3.7%	1.06×	25.36

H2 total 36

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H2 over 108.5	82.9%	81.8%	63.8%	1.28×	1.22
H2 under 132.5	81.9%	81.8%	90.9%	0.90×	1.22
H2 over 105.5	82.2%	81.5%	71.3%	1.14×	1.23
H2 under 129.5	82.1%	81.5%	87.6%	0.93×	1.23
H2 over 109.5	73.1%	72.5%	60.9%	1.19×	1.38
H2 over 112.5	73.9%	72.2%	52.6%	1.37×	1.39
H2 under 128.5	72.6%	72.2%	86.3%	0.84×	1.39
H2 over 115.5	65.8%	66.4%	44.6%	1.49×	1.51
H2 under 122.5	64.9%	62.6%	74.4%	0.84×	1.60
H2 under 125.5	64.4%	61.6%	81.3%	0.76×	1.62
H2 over 114.5	59.2%	58.0%	47.5%	1.22×	1.72
H2 over 117.5	60.0%	57.3%	38.9%	1.47×	1.74
H2 under 123.5	58.5%	57.3%	76.9%	0.75×	1.74
H2 over 119.5	53.9%	52.4%	33.6%	1.56×	1.91
H2 under 121.5	52.3%	52.4%	72.0%	0.73×	1.91
H2 over 120.5	50.8%	52.4%	30.7%	1.71×	1.91
H2 over 116.5	53.1%	52.1%	41.9%	1.24×	1.92
H2 under 118.5	53.0%	52.0%	63.6%	0.82×	1.92
H2 over 118.5	47.0%	48.0%	36.4%	1.32×	2.09
H2 under 116.5	46.9%	48.0%	58.1%	0.83×	2.09
H2 under 120.5	49.2%	47.6%	69.3%	0.69×	2.10
H2 over 121.5	47.7%	47.6%	28.0%	1.70×	2.10
H2 under 119.5	46.1%	47.6%	66.4%	0.72×	2.10
H2 over 123.5	41.5%	42.7%	23.1%	1.84×	2.34
H2 under 117.5	40.0%	42.7%	61.1%	0.70×	2.35
H2 under 114.5	40.8%	42.0%	52.5%	0.80×	2.38
H2 over 125.5	35.6%	38.4%	18.7%	2.05×	2.61
H2 over 122.5	35.1%	37.4%	25.6%	1.46×	2.67
H2 under 115.5	34.2%	33.6%	55.4%	0.61×	2.97
H2 over 128.5	27.4%	27.8%	13.7%	2.03×	3.59
H2 under 112.5	26.1%	27.8%	47.4%	0.59×	3.59
H2 under 109.5	26.9%	27.5%	39.1%	0.70×	3.63
H2 under 105.5	17.8%	18.5%	28.7%	0.65×	5.41
H2 over 129.5	17.9%	18.5%	12.4%	1.49×	5.41
H2 over 132.5	18.1%	18.2%	9.1%	2.00×	5.50
H2 under 108.5	17.1%	18.2%	36.2%	0.50×	5.50

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks leading at half time	52.3%	51.9%	52.8%	0.98×	1.93
Miami Heat leading at half time	44.2%	42.9%	44.1%	0.97×	2.33
Level at half time	3.5%	3.8%	3.1%	1.22×	26.41

Handicap 60

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks +18.5	92.1%	91.1%	91.5%	1.00×	1.10
Atlanta Hawks +20.5	94.0%	91.1%	93.1%	0.98×	1.10
Atlanta Hawks +16.5	89.9%	85.9%	89.7%	0.96×	1.16
Miami Heat +20.5	89.3%	85.9%	89.1%	0.96×	1.16
Atlanta Hawks +14.5	87.2%	85.9%	87.0%	0.99×	1.16
Miami Heat +18.5	86.5%	85.9%	86.4%	0.99×	1.16
Atlanta Hawks +12.5	84.1%	81.1%	83.9%	0.97×	1.23
Miami Heat +16.5	83.3%	81.1%	83.5%	0.97×	1.23
Atlanta Hawks +10.5	80.5%	81.1%	80.3%	1.01×	1.23
Miami Heat +14.5	79.6%	76.5%	80.1%	0.95×	1.31
Atlanta Hawks +9.5	78.5%	76.5%	78.1%	0.98×	1.31
Atlanta Hawks +8.5	76.4%	76.5%	75.7%	1.01×	1.31
Miami Heat +12.5	75.4%	76.5%	76.0%	1.01×	1.31
Atlanta Hawks +7.5	74.2%	71.6%	73.0%	0.98×	1.40
Atlanta Hawks +6.5	71.9%	71.6%	70.6%	1.01×	1.40
Miami Heat +10.5	70.8%	71.6%	71.0%	1.01×	1.40
Atlanta Hawks +5.5	69.5%	66.7%	68.0%	0.98×	1.50
Miami Heat +9.5	68.3%	66.7%	68.7%	0.97×	1.50
Atlanta Hawks +4.5	67.0%	66.7%	65.7%	1.02×	1.50
Miami Heat +8.5	65.8%	66.7%	65.9%	1.01×	1.50
Atlanta Hawks +3.5	64.4%	61.9%	63.1%	0.98×	1.62
Miami Heat +7.5	63.2%	61.9%	63.0%	0.98×	1.62
Atlanta Hawks +2.5	61.7%	61.9%	60.5%	1.02×	1.62
Miami Heat +6.5	60.5%	61.9%	60.0%	1.03×	1.62
Atlanta Hawks +1.5	59.0%	57.1%	57.9%	0.99×	1.75
Miami Heat +5.5	57.8%	57.1%	57.1%	1.00×	1.75
Miami Heat +4.5	55.0%	57.1%	54.1%	1.06×	1.75
Atlanta Hawks −1.5	53.5%	52.4%	53.7%	0.98×	1.91
Miami Heat +3.5	52.2%	52.4%	51.6%	1.02×	1.91
Atlanta Hawks −2.5	50.6%	52.4%	50.9%	1.03×	1.91
Miami Heat +2.5	49.4%	47.6%	49.1%	0.97×	2.10
Atlanta Hawks −3.5	47.8%	47.6%	48.4%	0.98×	2.10
Miami Heat +1.5	46.5%	47.6%	46.3%	1.03×	2.10
Atlanta Hawks −4.5	45.0%	42.9%	46.0%	0.93×	2.33
Atlanta Hawks −5.5	42.2%	42.9%	42.9%	1.00×	2.33
Miami Heat −1.5	41.0%	42.9%	42.1%	1.02×	2.33
Atlanta Hawks −6.5	39.5%	38.1%	40.0%	0.95×	2.63
Miami Heat −2.5	38.3%	38.1%	39.5%	0.96×	2.63
Atlanta Hawks −7.5	36.8%	38.1%	37.0%	1.03×	2.63
Miami Heat −3.5	35.6%	38.1%	36.9%	1.03×	2.63
Atlanta Hawks −8.5	34.2%	33.3%	34.1%	0.98×	3.01
Miami Heat −4.5	33.0%	33.3%	34.3%	0.97×	3.01
Atlanta Hawks −9.5	31.7%	33.3%	31.3%	1.06×	3.01
Miami Heat −5.5	30.5%	33.3%	32.0%	1.04×	3.01
Atlanta Hawks −10.5	29.2%	28.4%	29.0%	0.98×	3.53
Miami Heat −6.5	28.1%	28.4%	29.4%	0.96×	3.53
Miami Heat −7.5	25.8%	28.4%	27.0%	1.05×	3.53
Atlanta Hawks −12.5	24.6%	23.5%	24.0%	0.98×	4.25
Miami Heat −8.5	23.6%	23.5%	24.3%	0.97×	4.25
Miami Heat −9.5	21.5%	23.5%	21.9%	1.08×	4.25
Atlanta Hawks −14.5	20.4%	23.5%	19.9%	1.19×	4.25
Miami Heat −10.5	19.5%	18.9%	19.7%	0.96×	5.29
Atlanta Hawks −16.5	16.7%	18.9%	16.5%	1.15×	5.29
Miami Heat −12.5	15.9%	18.9%	16.1%	1.17×	5.30
Atlanta Hawks −18.5	13.5%	14.1%	13.6%	1.04×	7.09
Miami Heat −14.5	12.8%	14.1%	13.0%	1.09×	7.09
Miami Heat −16.5	10.1%	14.1%	10.3%	1.37×	7.09
Atlanta Hawks −20.5	10.7%	14.1%	10.9%	1.30×	7.09
Miami Heat −18.5	7.9%	8.9%	8.5%	1.04×	11.25
Miami Heat −20.5	6.0%	8.9%	6.9%	1.29×	11.25

Highest scoring half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	57.1%	52.6%	53.5%	0.98×	1.90
2nd half highest scoring	43.0%	47.4%	46.5%	1.02×	2.11

Highest scoring quarter 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 highest scoring	28.4%	27.4%	29.2%	0.94×	3.65
Q3 highest scoring	28.2%	27.4%	27.5%	1.00×	3.65
Q2 highest scoring	26.6%	27.4%	26.3%	1.04×	3.65
Q4 highest scoring	16.8%	18.3%	17.0%	1.08×	5.46

HT/FT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks at HT / Atlanta Hawks at FT	40.8%	41.0%	40.8%	1.01×	2.44
Miami Heat at HT / Miami Heat at FT	30.6%	33.2%	30.9%	1.08×	3.01
Miami Heat at HT / Atlanta Hawks at FT	13.6%	12.2%	13.3%	0.92×	8.17
Atlanta Hawks at HT / Miami Heat at FT	11.5%	12.2%	12.0%	1.02×	8.18
Level at HT / Atlanta Hawks at FT	1.9%	2.1%	1.7%	1.22×	47.76
Level at HT / Miami Heat at FT	1.6%	2.1%	1.4%	1.50×	47.76

Moneyline 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks to win	56.3%	55.2%	55.7%	0.99×	1.81
Miami Heat to win	43.7%	44.8%	44.3%	1.01×	2.23

Odd/Even 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Total points odd	51.4%	50.5%	51.0%	0.99×	1.98
Atlanta Hawks odd	50.0%	50.5%	50.3%	1.00×	1.98
Miami Heat even	50.0%	50.5%	50.3%	1.00×	1.98
Atlanta Hawks even	50.0%	49.5%	49.7%	1.00×	2.02
Miami Heat odd	50.0%	49.5%	49.7%	1.00×	2.02
Total points even	48.6%	49.5%	49.0%	1.01×	2.02

Overtime 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No overtime	92.9%	94.0%	94.8%	0.99×	1.06
Match to go to overtime	7.1%	6.0%	5.2%	1.16×	16.65

Q1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks to win Q1	50.4%	52.6%	51.3%	1.02×	1.90
Miami Heat to win Q1	44.8%	43.0%	44.1%	0.98×	2.33
Q1 tied	4.8%	4.2%	4.6%	0.90×	23.94

Q1 total 32

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 under 68.5	83.9%	83.2%	90.7%	0.92×	1.20
Q1 over 52.5	81.1%	83.2%	72.4%	1.15×	1.20
Q1 over 53.5	83.2%	82.8%	68.2%	1.21×	1.21
Q1 under 69.5	82.1%	82.8%	92.7%	0.89×	1.21
Q1 under 65.5	73.9%	73.1%	83.2%	0.88×	1.37
Q1 over 55.5	70.2%	73.1%	59.2%	1.24×	1.37
Q1 over 56.5	72.9%	72.7%	54.6%	1.33×	1.38
Q1 under 66.5	71.5%	72.7%	86.1%	0.84×	1.38
Q1 under 63.5	65.8%	69.2%	76.8%	0.90×	1.45
Q1 over 57.5	61.6%	62.3%	49.6%	1.26×	1.61
Q1 over 58.5	64.6%	61.7%	44.3%	1.39×	1.62
Q1 under 64.5	63.0%	61.7%	80.1%	0.77×	1.62
Q1 over 60.5	55.5%	58.6%	35.5%	1.65×	1.71
Q1 over 59.5	52.5%	52.7%	40.0%	1.32×	1.90
Q1 under 62.5	53.9%	52.7%	72.9%	0.72×	1.90
Q1 over 61.5	50.8%	52.7%	31.5%	1.67×	1.90
Q1 under 61.5	49.2%	47.3%	68.5%	0.69×	2.11
Q1 over 62.5	46.1%	47.3%	27.1%	1.75×	2.11
Q1 under 59.5	47.5%	47.3%	60.0%	0.79×	2.11
Q1 under 60.5	44.5%	41.4%	64.5%	0.64×	2.42
Q1 over 64.5	37.0%	38.3%	19.9%	1.92×	2.61
Q1 under 58.5	35.4%	38.3%	55.7%	0.69×	2.61
Q1 under 57.5	38.4%	37.7%	50.4%	0.75×	2.65
Q1 over 63.5	34.2%	30.8%	23.2%	1.33×	3.25
Q1 over 66.5	28.5%	27.3%	13.9%	1.96×	3.66
Q1 under 56.5	27.1%	27.3%	45.4%	0.60×	3.66
Q1 under 55.5	29.8%	26.9%	40.8%	0.66×	3.72
Q1 over 65.5	26.1%	26.9%	16.8%	1.60×	3.72
Q1 over 69.5	17.9%	17.2%	7.3%	2.34×	5.83
Q1 under 53.5	16.8%	17.2%	31.8%	0.54×	5.83
Q1 under 52.5	18.9%	16.8%	27.6%	0.61×	5.95
Q1 over 68.5	16.1%	16.8%	9.3%	1.80×	5.96

Q2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks to win Q2	50.4%	51.3%	49.3%	1.04×	1.95
Miami Heat to win Q2	44.9%	43.9%	46.2%	0.95×	2.28
Q2 tied	4.7%	4.4%	4.5%	0.98×	22.88

Q2 total 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q2 over 51.5	83.0%	83.1%	74.2%	1.12×	1.20
Q2 under 67.5	81.7%	83.1%	88.7%	0.94×	1.20
Q2 under 69.5	83.0%	83.0%	92.5%	0.90×	1.21
Q2 over 53.5	82.1%	83.0%	65.8%	1.26×	1.21
Q2 over 54.5	72.8%	73.0%	61.1%	1.20×	1.37
Q2 under 66.5	72.6%	72.0%	86.5%	0.83×	1.39
Q2 over 56.5	71.5%	72.0%	51.7%	1.39×	1.39
Q2 under 64.5	64.3%	60.7%	80.9%	0.75×	1.65
Q2 over 58.5	63.1%	60.7%	42.7%	1.42×	1.65
Q2 under 62.5	55.3%	58.2%	74.4%	0.78×	1.72
Q2 over 60.5	54.0%	52.7%	34.3%	1.54×	1.90
Q2 under 61.5	50.6%	52.7%	70.4%	0.75×	1.90
Q2 over 59.5	51.0%	52.2%	38.1%	1.37×	1.92
Q2 under 59.5	49.0%	47.8%	61.9%	0.77×	2.09
Q2 over 61.5	49.4%	47.3%	29.6%	1.60×	2.11
Q2 under 60.5	46.0%	47.3%	65.7%	0.72×	2.11
Q2 over 62.5	44.7%	41.8%	25.6%	1.63×	2.39
Q2 under 58.5	36.9%	39.3%	57.3%	0.69×	2.55
Q2 over 64.5	35.7%	39.3%	19.1%	2.05×	2.55
Q2 under 56.5	28.5%	28.0%	48.3%	0.58×	3.57
Q2 over 66.5	27.4%	28.0%	13.5%	2.08×	3.57
Q2 under 54.5	27.2%	27.0%	38.9%	0.69×	3.71
Q2 under 53.5	17.9%	17.0%	34.2%	0.50×	5.88
Q2 over 69.5	17.0%	17.0%	7.5%	2.27×	5.88
Q2 over 67.5	18.3%	16.9%	11.3%	1.49×	5.93
Q2 under 51.5	17.0%	16.9%	25.8%	0.65×	5.93

Q3 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks to win Q3	50.4%	52.6%	50.9%	1.04×	1.90
Miami Heat to win Q3	44.9%	42.3%	44.3%	0.95×	2.36
Q3 tied	4.7%	4.3%	4.9%	0.88×	23.43

Q3 total 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q3 under 70.5	84.8%	82.3%	92.9%	0.89×	1.22
Q3 over 54.5	80.9%	82.3%	63.9%	1.29×	1.22
Q3 under 68.5	83.7%	82.2%	89.3%	0.92×	1.22
Q3 over 52.5	81.8%	82.2%	72.2%	1.14×	1.22
Q3 over 55.5	71.0%	72.5%	59.9%	1.21×	1.38
Q3 under 67.5	74.9%	71.8%	87.0%	0.83×	1.39
Q3 over 57.5	69.7%	67.8%	50.2%	1.35×	1.48
Q3 under 65.5	66.8%	67.8%	82.2%	0.82×	1.48
Q3 over 59.5	61.0%	61.9%	41.0%	1.51×	1.61
Q3 under 63.5	57.8%	58.4%	75.9%	0.77×	1.71
Q3 under 60.5	51.4%	52.6%	63.5%	0.83×	1.90
Q3 under 62.5	53.1%	52.3%	71.9%	0.73×	1.91
Q3 over 61.5	51.7%	52.3%	32.3%	1.62×	1.91
Q3 under 61.5	48.3%	47.7%	67.7%	0.70×	2.10
Q3 over 62.5	46.9%	47.7%	28.1%	1.70×	2.10
Q3 over 60.5	48.6%	47.4%	36.5%	1.30×	2.11
Q3 over 63.5	42.2%	41.6%	24.1%	1.73×	2.40
Q3 under 59.5	39.0%	38.1%	59.0%	0.65×	2.63
Q3 over 65.5	33.2%	32.2%	17.8%	1.81×	3.10
Q3 under 57.5	30.3%	32.2%	49.8%	0.65×	3.11
Q3 over 67.5	25.1%	28.2%	13.0%	2.17×	3.55
Q3 under 55.5	29.0%	27.5%	40.1%	0.69×	3.63
Q3 under 52.5	18.2%	17.8%	27.8%	0.64×	5.62
Q3 over 68.5	16.3%	17.8%	10.7%	1.66×	5.63
Q3 under 54.5	19.1%	17.7%	36.1%	0.49×	5.66
Q3 over 70.5	15.2%	17.7%	7.1%	2.48×	5.66

Q4 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks to win Q4	50.3%	51.4%	48.3%	1.06×	1.95
Miami Heat to win Q4	44.9%	43.1%	46.4%	0.93×	2.32
Q4 tied	4.9%	5.2%	5.3%	0.98×	19.28

Q4 total 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q4 under 67.5	83.9%	82.0%	91.7%	0.89×	1.22
Q4 over 51.5	80.3%	82.0%	64.7%	1.27×	1.22
Q4 under 65.5	82.6%	81.9%	88.4%	0.93×	1.22
Q4 over 49.5	81.5%	81.9%	72.3%	1.13×	1.22
Q4 over 52.5	71.0%	72.3%	60.4%	1.20×	1.38
Q4 under 64.5	74.1%	71.5%	86.3%	0.83×	1.40
Q4 over 54.5	69.4%	67.4%	51.4%	1.31×	1.48
Q4 under 62.5	66.1%	67.4%	80.4%	0.84×	1.48
Q4 over 56.5	60.9%	61.4%	42.8%	1.44×	1.63
Q4 under 60.5	57.3%	58.4%	74.2%	0.79×	1.71
Q4 under 59.5	52.8%	52.5%	70.2%	0.75×	1.91
Q4 over 58.5	51.8%	52.5%	33.8%	1.55×	1.91
Q4 under 57.5	50.8%	52.3%	61.9%	0.85×	1.91
Q4 over 57.5	49.2%	47.7%	38.1%	1.25×	2.10
Q4 under 58.5	48.2%	47.5%	66.2%	0.72×	2.11
Q4 over 59.5	47.2%	47.5%	29.8%	1.60×	2.11
Q4 over 60.5	42.7%	41.6%	25.8%	1.62×	2.40
Q4 under 56.5	39.1%	38.6%	57.2%	0.67×	2.59
Q4 over 62.5	33.9%	32.6%	19.6%	1.66×	3.07
Q4 under 54.5	30.6%	32.6%	48.6%	0.67×	3.07
Q4 over 64.5	25.9%	28.5%	13.7%	2.08×	3.51
Q4 under 52.5	29.0%	27.7%	39.6%	0.70×	3.61
Q4 under 49.5	18.5%	18.1%	27.7%	0.65×	5.53
Q4 over 65.5	17.4%	18.1%	11.6%	1.56×	5.53
Q4 under 51.5	19.7%	18.0%	35.3%	0.51×	5.56
Q4 over 67.5	16.1%	18.0%	8.3%	2.16×	5.56

Team total 68

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks under 133.5	81.1%	80.7%	92.3%	0.87×	1.24
Miami Heat over 110.5	80.9%	80.7%	57.9%	1.39×	1.24
Miami Heat over 107.5	80.0%	80.3%	66.6%	1.21×	1.25
Atlanta Hawks over 109.5	79.8%	78.3%	67.0%	1.17×	1.28
Atlanta Hawks under 129.5	79.3%	78.3%	87.2%	0.90×	1.28
Miami Heat under 130.5	79.7%	75.1%	91.5%	0.82×	1.33
Atlanta Hawks over 113.5	79.0%	75.1%	54.3%	1.38×	1.33
Atlanta Hawks over 112.5	72.1%	71.8%	57.7%	1.24×	1.39
Miami Heat under 124.5	71.4%	71.8%	81.4%	0.88×	1.39
Atlanta Hawks under 130.5	73.5%	70.7%	88.6%	0.80×	1.41
Miami Heat over 113.5	73.1%	70.7%	48.0%	1.47×	1.41
Miami Heat under 127.5	71.8%	70.7%	86.9%	0.81×	1.41
Atlanta Hawks over 116.5	71.0%	70.7%	45.3%	1.56×	1.41
Miami Heat over 112.5	66.5%	66.6%	51.5%	1.29×	1.50
Atlanta Hawks over 114.5	66.3%	66.6%	51.4%	1.30×	1.50
Miami Heat under 122.5	65.6%	66.6%	77.4%	0.86×	1.50
Atlanta Hawks under 128.5	67.7%	66.4%	85.5%	0.78×	1.51
Miami Heat over 115.5	67.2%	66.4%	41.4%	1.60×	1.51
Miami Heat under 125.5	65.7%	66.4%	83.4%	0.80×	1.51
Atlanta Hawks over 118.5	64.9%	61.2%	39.7%	1.54×	1.63
Atlanta Hawks under 126.5	61.5%	61.2%	81.5%	0.75×	1.63
Miami Heat over 117.5	60.9%	61.2%	35.6%	1.72×	1.63
Miami Heat over 114.5	60.3%	61.2%	44.5%	1.38×	1.64
Miami Heat under 123.5	59.3%	57.1%	79.5%	0.72×	1.75
Atlanta Hawks over 120.5	58.5%	57.1%	33.7%	1.70×	1.75
Miami Heat over 119.5	54.2%	52.3%	29.7%	1.76×	1.91
Atlanta Hawks under 124.5	54.9%	52.3%	76.8%	0.68×	1.91
Atlanta Hawks under 123.5	51.5%	52.3%	74.4%	0.70×	1.91
Miami Heat under 121.5	52.6%	52.3%	74.7%	0.70×	1.91
Atlanta Hawks over 122.5	51.8%	52.3%	28.2%	1.85×	1.91
Miami Heat over 120.5	50.8%	52.3%	27.3%	1.91×	1.91
Miami Heat over 116.5	53.8%	52.2%	38.5%	1.36×	1.91
Miami Heat under 118.5	52.8%	52.2%	67.4%	0.78×	1.91
Atlanta Hawks over 119.5	50.4%	52.2%	36.5%	1.43×	1.91
Atlanta Hawks under 119.5	49.6%	47.8%	63.5%	0.75×	2.09
Miami Heat over 118.5	47.2%	47.8%	32.6%	1.46×	2.09
Miami Heat under 116.5	46.2%	47.8%	61.5%	0.78×	2.09
Miami Heat under 120.5	49.2%	47.7%	72.7%	0.66×	2.09
Atlanta Hawks over 123.5	48.5%	47.7%	25.6%	1.87×	2.09
Miami Heat over 121.5	47.4%	47.7%	25.3%	1.89×	2.09
Atlanta Hawks under 122.5	48.2%	47.7%	71.8%	0.66×	2.09
Miami Heat under 119.5	45.8%	47.7%	70.3%	0.68×	2.09
Atlanta Hawks over 124.5	45.1%	47.7%	23.2%	2.06×	2.09
Atlanta Hawks under 120.5	41.5%	42.9%	66.3%	0.65×	2.33
Miami Heat over 123.5	40.7%	42.9%	20.5%	2.09×	2.33
Miami Heat under 114.5	39.7%	38.8%	55.5%	0.70×	2.58
Atlanta Hawks over 126.5	38.5%	38.8%	18.5%	2.10×	2.58
Miami Heat under 117.5	39.1%	38.8%	64.4%	0.60×	2.58
Atlanta Hawks under 118.5	35.1%	38.8%	60.3%	0.64×	2.58
Miami Heat over 125.5	34.3%	33.6%	16.6%	2.02×	2.98
Atlanta Hawks over 128.5	32.3%	33.6%	14.5%	2.32×	2.98
Miami Heat under 115.5	32.8%	33.6%	58.6%	0.57×	2.98
Miami Heat over 122.5	34.4%	33.4%	22.6%	1.48×	2.99
Atlanta Hawks under 114.5	33.7%	33.4%	48.6%	0.69×	2.99
Miami Heat under 112.5	33.5%	33.4%	48.5%	0.69×	2.99
Atlanta Hawks under 116.5	29.0%	29.3%	54.7%	0.53×	3.42
Miami Heat over 127.5	28.2%	29.3%	13.1%	2.23×	3.42
Atlanta Hawks over 130.5	26.5%	29.3%	11.4%	2.57×	3.42
Miami Heat under 113.5	26.9%	29.3%	52.0%	0.56×	3.42
Miami Heat over 124.5	28.6%	28.2%	18.6%	1.52×	3.55
Atlanta Hawks under 112.5	27.9%	28.2%	42.3%	0.67×	3.55
Atlanta Hawks under 113.5	21.0%	24.9%	45.7%	0.54×	4.02
Miami Heat over 130.5	20.3%	24.9%	8.5%	2.93×	4.02
Atlanta Hawks over 129.5	20.7%	21.7%	12.8%	1.69×	4.60
Atlanta Hawks under 109.5	20.2%	21.7%	33.0%	0.66×	4.61
Miami Heat under 107.5	20.0%	19.7%	33.4%	0.59×	5.07
Miami Heat under 110.5	19.1%	19.3%	42.1%	0.46×	5.18
Atlanta Hawks over 133.5	18.9%	19.3%	7.7%	2.49×	5.18

Total points 52

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 257.5 points	86.0%	85.5%	92.3%	0.93×	1.17
Over 217.5 points	85.4%	85.5%	69.6%	1.23×	1.17
Under 264.5 points	87.0%	85.0%	96.1%	0.88×	1.18
Over 224.5 points	85.3%	85.0%	56.5%	1.50×	1.18
Under 259.5 points	80.4%	80.6%	93.6%	0.86×	1.24
Under 252.5 points	79.1%	78.1%	88.1%	0.89×	1.28
Over 222.5 points	78.4%	78.1%	60.4%	1.29×	1.28
Over 229.5 points	78.1%	75.6%	46.7%	1.62×	1.32
Under 254.5 points	72.0%	70.8%	89.9%	0.79×	1.41
Over 227.5 points	69.8%	66.6%	50.6%	1.32×	1.50
Over 234.5 points	69.3%	65.9%	36.7%	1.80×	1.52
Under 251.5 points	66.3%	65.9%	87.2%	0.76×	1.52
Over 230.5 points	64.1%	61.8%	44.6%	1.38×	1.62
Under 242.5 points	60.9%	61.7%	76.8%	0.80×	1.62
Over 232.5 points	60.0%	61.7%	40.6%	1.52×	1.62
Over 237.5 points	63.3%	61.5%	30.7%	2.00×	1.63
Under 249.5 points	62.2%	61.5%	85.3%	0.72×	1.63
Over 239.5 points	59.2%	56.5%	27.5%	2.06×	1.77
Under 247.5 points	58.0%	56.5%	83.3%	0.68×	1.77
Under 240.5 points	56.8%	56.0%	74.0%	0.76×	1.79
Over 241.5 points	54.9%	52.3%	24.5%	2.14×	1.91
Under 245.5 points	53.7%	52.3%	80.9%	0.65×	1.91
Under 244.5 points	51.5%	52.3%	79.5%	0.66×	1.91
Over 243.5 points	50.6%	52.3%	21.8%	2.40×	1.91
Under 238.5 points	52.6%	52.2%	70.9%	0.74×	1.92
Over 236.5 points	51.7%	52.2%	32.7%	1.60×	1.92
Under 236.5 points	48.3%	47.8%	67.3%	0.71×	2.09
Over 238.5 points	47.4%	47.8%	29.1%	1.64×	2.09
Under 243.5 points	49.4%	47.7%	78.2%	0.61×	2.10
Over 244.5 points	48.5%	47.7%	20.5%	2.33×	2.10
Over 245.5 points	46.3%	47.7%	19.1%	2.49×	2.10
Under 241.5 points	45.1%	47.7%	75.5%	0.63×	2.10
Over 240.5 points	43.2%	44.0%	26.0%	1.69×	2.27
Over 247.5 points	42.0%	43.5%	16.7%	2.60×	2.30
Under 239.5 points	40.8%	43.5%	72.5%	0.60×	2.30
Over 249.5 points	37.8%	38.5%	14.7%	2.63×	2.60
Under 237.5 points	36.7%	38.5%	69.3%	0.56×	2.60
Under 232.5 points	40.0%	38.3%	59.4%	0.64×	2.61
Over 242.5 points	39.1%	38.3%	23.2%	1.65×	2.61
Under 230.5 points	35.9%	38.2%	55.4%	0.69×	2.62
Over 251.5 points	33.7%	34.1%	12.8%	2.66×	2.93
Under 234.5 points	30.7%	34.1%	63.3%	0.54×	2.93
Under 227.5 points	30.2%	33.4%	49.4%	0.68×	3.00
Over 254.5 points	28.0%	29.2%	10.1%	2.90×	3.43
Under 229.5 points	21.9%	24.4%	53.3%	0.46×	4.10
Under 222.5 points	21.6%	21.9%	39.6%	0.55×	4.57
Over 252.5 points	20.9%	21.9%	11.9%	1.84×	4.57
Over 259.5 points	19.6%	19.4%	6.4%	3.05×	5.15
Under 224.5 points	14.7%	15.0%	43.5%	0.34×	6.68
Over 264.5 points	13.0%	15.0%	3.9%	3.84×	6.69
Under 217.5 points	14.6%	14.5%	30.4%	0.48×	6.88
Over 257.5 points	14.0%	14.5%	7.7%	1.88×	6.88

Win both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks to win both halves	25.2%	27.2%	25.2%	1.08×	3.68
Miami Heat to win both halves	17.4%	18.9%	17.8%	1.06×	5.30

Winning margin 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks by 1-5	14.1%	12.3%	12.8%	0.96×	8.11
Miami Heat by 1-5	13.2%	12.3%	12.3%	1.01×	8.11
Atlanta Hawks by 6-10	13.0%	12.3%	13.9%	0.88×	8.11
Miami Heat by 6-10	11.0%	12.3%	12.3%	1.00×	8.11
Atlanta Hawks by 11-15	10.7%	12.3%	10.8%	1.14×	8.11
Miami Heat by 11-15	8.2%	7.5%	8.0%	0.93×	13.40
Atlanta Hawks by 16-20	7.8%	7.5%	7.3%	1.02×	13.40
Miami Heat by 16-20	5.4%	7.5%	4.9%	1.53×	13.40
Atlanta Hawks by 21-25	5.1%	7.5%	4.7%	1.58×	13.41
Atlanta Hawks by 26+	5.6%	7.5%	6.2%	1.21×	13.40
Miami Heat by 21-25	3.1%	2.0%	3.0%	0.67×	49.30
Miami Heat by 26+	2.9%	2.0%	3.9%	0.53×	49.30

Atlanta Hawks v Miami Heat — Prediction, Odds & Stats

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