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Belmont Bruins v Tennessee Lady Volunteers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 17 November 2026 · NCAAW · 2027

NCAAW results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Belmont Bruins win
9.0%
Draw
0.0%
Tennessee Lady Volunteers win
91.0%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 65.01–79.70 65-80 0% 51% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belmont Bruins to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 1.8% 0.20× 283.35
Belmont Bruins to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.64× 283.36
Belmont Bruins to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 2.91× 283.36
Belmont Bruins to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 7.58× 283.36
Tennessee Lady Volunteers to score 100+ 1.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0.72× 283.03
Tennessee Lady Volunteers to score 110+ 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 4.74× 283.34
Tennessee Lady Volunteers to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 18.95× 283.36
Tennessee Lady Volunteers to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 37.89× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 6.32× 283.36
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Lady Volunteers to win H1 77.4% 79.2% 39.9% 1.99× 1.26
Belmont Bruins to win H1 19.3% 16.9% 56.4% 0.30× 5.91
H1 tied 3.3% 3.9% 3.7% 1.05× 25.87
H1 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 81.5 88.8% 87.7% 95.5% 0.92× 1.14
H1 over 57.5 87.4% 87.7% 64.8% 1.35× 1.14
H1 under 77.5 79.5% 77.4% 91.6% 0.85× 1.29
H1 over 61.5 77.3% 77.4% 50.2% 1.54× 1.29
H1 under 74.5 70.2% 73.5% 87.2% 0.84× 1.36
H1 over 64.5 67.5% 67.4% 39.3% 1.72× 1.48
H1 under 72.5 63.0% 62.7% 83.6% 0.75× 1.59
H1 over 66.5 60.1% 62.7% 32.9% 1.91× 1.59
H1 under 70.5 55.4% 58.2% 78.9% 0.74× 1.72
H1 over 68.5 52.4% 52.6% 26.5% 1.99× 1.90
H1 under 69.5 51.5% 52.6% 76.2% 0.69× 1.90
H1 over 69.5 48.5% 47.4% 23.8% 1.99× 2.11
H1 under 68.5 47.6% 47.4% 73.5% 0.64× 2.11
H1 over 70.5 44.6% 41.8% 21.1% 1.98× 2.39
H1 under 66.5 39.9% 37.3% 67.1% 0.56× 2.68
H1 over 72.5 37.0% 37.3% 16.4% 2.27× 2.68
H1 under 64.5 32.5% 32.6% 60.7% 0.54× 3.07
H1 over 74.5 29.8% 26.5% 12.8% 2.07× 3.77
H1 under 61.5 22.7% 22.6% 49.8% 0.45× 4.43
H1 over 77.5 20.5% 22.6% 8.4% 2.69× 4.43
H1 under 57.5 12.6% 12.3% 35.2% 0.35× 8.14
H1 over 81.5 11.2% 12.3% 4.5% 2.74× 8.14
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Lady Volunteers to win H2 78.8% 74.0% 40.6% 1.82× 1.35
Belmont Bruins to win H2 18.1% 20.4% 56.0% 0.36× 4.89
H2 tied 3.0% 3.9% 3.4% 1.16× 25.36
H2 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 over 63.5 87.4% 85.2% 65.3% 1.30× 1.17
H2 under 87.5 86.6% 85.2% 93.2% 0.91× 1.17
H2 over 67.5 77.9% 75.8% 52.1% 1.45× 1.32
H2 under 83.5 76.8% 75.8% 88.9% 0.85× 1.32
H2 over 70.5 68.7% 66.4% 42.2% 1.57× 1.51
H2 under 80.5 67.4% 66.4% 84.0% 0.79× 1.51
H2 over 72.5 61.7% 61.6% 36.0% 1.71× 1.62
H2 under 78.5 60.4% 61.6% 80.1% 0.77× 1.62
H2 over 74.5 54.4% 52.4% 30.1% 1.74× 1.91
H2 under 76.5 53.0% 52.4% 75.6% 0.69× 1.91
H2 over 75.5 50.7% 52.4% 27.0% 1.94× 1.91
H2 under 75.5 49.3% 47.6% 73.0% 0.65× 2.10
H2 over 76.5 47.0% 47.6% 24.4% 1.95× 2.10
H2 under 74.5 45.6% 47.6% 69.9% 0.68× 2.10
H2 over 78.5 39.6% 38.4% 19.9% 1.93× 2.61
H2 under 72.5 38.3% 38.4% 64.1% 0.60× 2.61
H2 over 80.5 32.6% 33.6% 16.0% 2.11× 2.97
H2 under 70.5 31.3% 33.6% 57.8% 0.58× 2.97
H2 over 83.5 23.2% 24.2% 11.1% 2.18× 4.13
H2 under 67.5 22.1% 24.2% 47.9% 0.51× 4.13
H2 over 87.5 13.4% 14.8% 6.8% 2.18× 6.76
H2 under 63.5 12.6% 14.8% 34.7% 0.43× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Lady Volunteers leading at half time 77.4% 79.7% 39.9% 2.00× 1.26
Belmont Bruins leading at half time 19.3% 17.1% 56.4% 0.30× 5.86
Level at half time 3.3% 3.8% 3.7% 1.03× 26.41
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Lady Volunteers +20.5 99.9% 97.4% 82.0% 1.19× 1.03
Tennessee Lady Volunteers +14.5 99.5% 97.4% 72.1% 1.35× 1.03
Tennessee Lady Volunteers +16.5 99.7% 97.4% 75.7% 1.29× 1.03
Tennessee Lady Volunteers +18.5 99.8% 97.4% 79.3% 1.23× 1.03
Tennessee Lady Volunteers +4.5 95.5% 97.4% 47.8% 2.04× 1.03
Tennessee Lady Volunteers +5.5 96.3% 97.4% 50.3% 1.94× 1.03
Tennessee Lady Volunteers +6.5 97.0% 97.4% 52.4% 1.86× 1.03
Tennessee Lady Volunteers +7.5 97.5% 97.4% 55.2% 1.76× 1.03
Tennessee Lady Volunteers +8.5 98.0% 97.4% 58.0% 1.68× 1.03
Tennessee Lady Volunteers +9.5 98.4% 97.4% 60.7% 1.61× 1.03
Tennessee Lady Volunteers +10.5 98.7% 97.4% 63.2% 1.54× 1.03
Tennessee Lady Volunteers +12.5 99.2% 97.4% 67.9% 1.44× 1.03
Tennessee Lady Volunteers +3.5 94.6% 91.1% 45.8% 1.99× 1.10
Tennessee Lady Volunteers +1.5 92.4% 91.1% 41.3% 2.21× 1.10
Tennessee Lady Volunteers +2.5 93.6% 91.1% 43.3% 2.11× 1.10
Tennessee Lady Volunteers −1.5 89.3% 85.9% 38.8% 2.22× 1.16
Tennessee Lady Volunteers −2.5 87.3% 85.9% 36.7% 2.34× 1.16
Tennessee Lady Volunteers −3.5 85.2% 85.9% 34.3% 2.50× 1.16
Tennessee Lady Volunteers −4.5 82.9% 81.1% 32.2% 2.52× 1.23
Tennessee Lady Volunteers −5.5 80.4% 81.1% 29.9% 2.71× 1.23
Tennessee Lady Volunteers −6.5 77.8% 76.5% 27.7% 2.76× 1.31
Tennessee Lady Volunteers −7.5 74.9% 71.6% 25.5% 2.81× 1.40
Tennessee Lady Volunteers −8.5 71.9% 71.6% 23.5% 3.04× 1.40
Belmont Bruins +20.5 69.5% 66.7% 92.7% 0.72× 1.50
Tennessee Lady Volunteers −9.5 68.7% 66.7% 21.3% 3.13× 1.50
Tennessee Lady Volunteers −10.5 65.4% 66.7% 19.6% 3.40× 1.50
Belmont Bruins +18.5 62.9% 61.9% 91.1% 0.68× 1.62
Tennessee Lady Volunteers −12.5 58.5% 57.1% 16.2% 3.51× 1.75
Belmont Bruins +16.5 55.9% 57.1% 89.1% 0.64× 1.75
Tennessee Lady Volunteers −14.5 51.3% 52.4% 13.3% 3.95× 1.91
Belmont Bruins +14.5 48.7% 47.6% 86.7% 0.55× 2.10
Tennessee Lady Volunteers −16.5 44.1% 42.9% 10.9% 3.95× 2.33
Belmont Bruins +12.5 41.5% 42.9% 83.8% 0.51× 2.33
Tennessee Lady Volunteers −18.5 37.1% 38.1% 8.9% 4.27× 2.63
Belmont Bruins +10.5 34.6% 33.3% 80.4% 0.41× 3.01
Tennessee Lady Volunteers −20.5 30.5% 33.3% 7.3% 4.57× 3.01
Belmont Bruins +9.5 31.3% 33.3% 78.7% 0.42× 3.01
Belmont Bruins +8.5 28.1% 28.4% 76.5% 0.37× 3.53
Belmont Bruins +7.5 25.1% 28.4% 74.5% 0.38× 3.53
Belmont Bruins +6.5 22.2% 23.5% 72.3% 0.33× 4.25
Belmont Bruins +5.5 19.6% 18.9% 70.1% 0.27× 5.29
Belmont Bruins +4.5 17.1% 18.9% 67.8% 0.28× 5.29
Belmont Bruins +3.5 14.8% 14.1% 65.7% 0.21× 7.09
Belmont Bruins +2.5 12.7% 14.1% 63.3% 0.22× 7.09
Belmont Bruins +1.5 10.7% 14.1% 61.2% 0.23× 7.09
Belmont Bruins −1.5 7.7% 8.9% 58.7% 0.15× 11.25
Belmont Bruins −2.5 6.4% 8.9% 56.7% 0.16× 11.25
Belmont Bruins −3.5 5.4% 8.9% 54.2% 0.16× 11.25
Belmont Bruins −4.5 4.5% 2.6% 52.2% 0.05× 38.72
Belmont Bruins −5.5 3.7% 2.6% 49.7% 0.05× 38.73
Belmont Bruins −6.5 3.0% 2.6% 47.6% 0.05× 38.73
Belmont Bruins −7.5 2.5% 2.6% 44.8% 0.06× 38.73
Belmont Bruins −8.5 2.0% 2.6% 42.0% 0.06× 38.73
Belmont Bruins −9.5 1.6% 2.6% 39.3% 0.07× 38.73
Belmont Bruins −10.5 1.3% 2.6% 36.8% 0.07× 38.74
Belmont Bruins −12.5 0.8% 2.6% 32.1% 0.08× 38.74
Belmont Bruins −20.5 0.1% 2.6% 18.0% 0.14× 38.74
Belmont Bruins −14.5 0.5% 2.6% 27.9% 0.09× 38.74
Belmont Bruins −16.5 0.3% 2.6% 24.3% 0.11× 38.74
Belmont Bruins −18.5 0.2% 2.6% 20.7% 0.12× 38.74
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 74.1% 67.1% 66.7% 1.01× 1.49
1st half highest scoring 25.9% 32.9% 33.3% 0.99× 3.04
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 highest scoring 33.4% 31.9% 31.3% 1.02× 3.14
Q4 highest scoring 35.2% 28.6% 31.2% 0.92× 3.50
Q2 highest scoring 14.9% 18.4% 17.9% 1.03× 5.45
Q1 highest scoring 16.5% 18.3% 19.6% 0.94× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Lady Volunteers at HT / Tennessee Lady Volunteers at FT 74.4% 73.2% 30.1% 2.43× 1.37
Belmont Bruins at HT / Tennessee Lady Volunteers at FT 13.8% 12.2% 8.2% 1.49× 8.17
Belmont Bruins at HT / Belmont Bruins at FT 5.6% 8.3% 48.3% 0.17× 12.10
Level at HT / Tennessee Lady Volunteers at FT 2.8% 2.1% 1.8% 1.20× 47.74
Tennessee Lady Volunteers at HT / Belmont Bruins at FT 3.0% 2.1% 9.8% 0.21× 47.74
Level at HT / Belmont Bruins at FT 0.5% 2.1% 1.9% 1.09× 47.78
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Lady Volunteers to win 91.0% 90.6% 40.1% 2.26× 1.10
Belmont Bruins to win 9.0% 9.4% 59.9% 0.16× 10.61
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belmont Bruins even 50.0% 50.5% 49.4% 1.02× 1.98
Tennessee Lady Volunteers even 50.0% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
Total points odd 50.8% 50.5% 51.5% 0.98× 1.98
Belmont Bruins odd 50.0% 49.5% 50.6% 0.98× 2.02
Tennessee Lady Volunteers odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
Total points even 49.2% 49.5% 48.5% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 96.5% 97.0% 95.6% 1.02× 1.03
Match to go to overtime 3.5% 3.0% 4.4% 0.67× 33.42
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Lady Volunteers to win Q1 68.1% 72.3% 40.4% 1.79× 1.38
Belmont Bruins to win Q1 26.6% 22.4% 54.7% 0.41× 4.46
Q1 tied 5.3% 5.5% 4.9% 1.11× 18.33
Q1 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 over 26.5 88.8% 87.4% 72.9% 1.20× 1.14
Q1 under 42.5 87.4% 87.4% 93.6% 0.93× 1.14
Q1 over 29.5 78.0% 76.9% 56.9% 1.35× 1.30
Q1 under 39.5 75.8% 76.9% 87.5% 0.88× 1.30
Q1 over 31.5 68.4% 67.6% 46.0% 1.47× 1.48
Q1 under 37.5 65.8% 67.6% 81.6% 0.83× 1.48
Q1 over 33.5 57.3% 58.6% 36.0% 1.63× 1.71
Q1 under 35.5 54.5% 52.7% 73.2% 0.72× 1.90
Q1 over 34.5 51.4% 52.7% 31.5% 1.67× 1.90
Q1 under 34.5 48.6% 47.3% 68.5% 0.69× 2.11
Q1 over 35.5 45.5% 47.3% 26.8% 1.76× 2.11
Q1 under 33.5 42.7% 41.4% 64.0% 0.65× 2.42
Q1 over 37.5 34.2% 32.4% 18.4% 1.76× 3.08
Q1 under 31.5 31.6% 32.4% 54.0% 0.60× 3.08
Q1 over 39.5 24.2% 23.1% 12.5% 1.84× 4.33
Q1 under 29.5 22.0% 23.1% 43.1% 0.54× 4.33
Q1 over 42.5 12.6% 12.6% 6.4% 1.98× 7.95
Q1 under 26.5 11.2% 12.6% 27.1% 0.46× 7.95
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Lady Volunteers to win Q2 67.6% 68.4% 41.5% 1.65× 1.46
Belmont Bruins to win Q2 27.1% 27.7% 52.9% 0.52× 3.61
Q2 tied 5.2% 6.1% 5.7% 1.06× 16.50
Q2 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 under 42.5 88.4% 87.3% 94.3% 0.93× 1.15
Q2 over 26.5 87.8% 87.3% 71.6% 1.22× 1.15
Q2 under 39.5 77.5% 76.8% 88.4% 0.87× 1.30
Q2 over 29.5 76.4% 76.8% 55.8% 1.38× 1.30
Q2 under 37.5 67.7% 67.4% 82.3% 0.82× 1.49
Q2 over 31.5 66.5% 67.4% 44.3% 1.52× 1.49
Q2 under 35.5 56.6% 58.2% 74.6% 0.78× 1.72
Q2 over 33.5 55.2% 58.2% 34.4% 1.69× 1.72
Q2 under 34.5 50.7% 52.7% 70.1% 0.75× 1.90
Q2 over 34.5 49.3% 47.3% 29.9% 1.58× 2.11
Q2 under 33.5 44.8% 41.8% 65.6% 0.64× 2.39
Q2 over 35.5 43.4% 41.8% 25.4% 1.65× 2.39
Q2 under 31.5 33.5% 32.6% 55.7% 0.59× 3.06
Q2 over 37.5 32.3% 32.6% 17.7% 1.85× 3.06
Q2 under 29.5 23.6% 23.2% 44.2% 0.53× 4.31
Q2 over 39.5 22.5% 23.2% 11.6% 2.00× 4.31
Q2 under 26.5 12.2% 12.7% 28.4% 0.45× 7.89
Q2 over 42.5 11.6% 12.7% 5.7% 2.23× 7.89
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Lady Volunteers to win Q3 69.4% 66.8% 41.8% 1.60× 1.50
Belmont Bruins to win Q3 25.6% 28.8% 53.3% 0.54× 3.48
Q3 tied 5.0% 5.3% 4.9% 1.07× 18.98
Q3 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 under 46.5 89.4% 87.2% 95.3% 0.92× 1.15
Q3 over 30.5 85.3% 87.2% 66.8% 1.30× 1.15
Q3 under 43.5 79.3% 77.3% 90.2% 0.86× 1.29
Q3 over 33.5 73.2% 71.8% 50.9% 1.41× 1.39
Q3 under 41.5 70.2% 71.8% 85.1% 0.84× 1.39
Q3 over 35.5 63.0% 61.9% 40.3% 1.54× 1.61
Q3 under 39.5 59.6% 58.4% 77.9% 0.75× 1.71
Q3 under 38.5 53.9% 52.3% 73.9% 0.71× 1.91
Q3 over 37.5 51.8% 52.3% 30.3% 1.73× 1.91
Q3 under 37.5 48.2% 47.7% 69.7% 0.68× 2.10
Q3 over 38.5 46.1% 47.7% 26.1% 1.83× 2.10
Q3 over 39.5 40.4% 41.6% 22.1% 1.88× 2.40
Q3 under 35.5 37.0% 38.1% 59.7% 0.64× 2.63
Q3 over 41.5 29.8% 28.2% 14.9% 1.89× 3.55
Q3 under 33.5 26.8% 28.2% 49.1% 0.57× 3.55
Q3 over 43.5 20.7% 22.7% 9.8% 2.31× 4.40
Q3 under 30.5 14.7% 12.8% 33.2% 0.39× 7.83
Q3 over 46.5 10.7% 12.8% 4.7% 2.73× 7.83
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Lady Volunteers to win Q4 69.0% 60.7% 41.5% 1.46× 1.65
Belmont Bruins to win Q4 26.0% 33.3% 52.8% 0.63× 3.00
Q4 tied 5.0% 5.2% 5.7% 0.91× 19.28
Q4 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 under 46.5 87.8% 85.6% 93.9% 0.91× 1.17
Q4 over 30.5 84.2% 82.0% 66.3% 1.24× 1.22
Q4 under 43.5 77.7% 76.9% 88.6% 0.87× 1.30
Q4 over 33.5 72.4% 71.5% 50.4% 1.42× 1.40
Q4 under 41.5 68.8% 67.4% 83.6% 0.81× 1.48
Q4 over 35.5 62.7% 61.4% 40.6% 1.51× 1.63
Q4 under 39.5 58.7% 58.4% 77.0% 0.76× 1.71
Q4 under 38.5 53.3% 52.5% 73.1% 0.72× 1.91
Q4 over 37.5 52.1% 52.5% 31.2% 1.68× 1.91
Q4 under 37.5 47.9% 47.5% 68.8% 0.69× 2.11
Q4 over 38.5 46.7% 47.5% 26.9% 1.77× 2.11
Q4 over 39.5 41.3% 41.6% 23.0% 1.81× 2.40
Q4 under 35.5 37.3% 38.6% 59.4% 0.65× 2.59
Q4 over 41.5 31.2% 32.6% 16.4% 1.99× 3.07
Q4 under 33.5 27.6% 28.5% 49.6% 0.57× 3.51
Q4 over 43.5 22.3% 23.1% 11.4% 2.02× 4.33
Q4 under 30.5 15.8% 18.0% 33.7% 0.53× 5.56
Q4 over 46.5 12.2% 14.4% 6.1% 2.36× 6.95
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Lady Volunteers under 90.5 87.5% 83.9% 97.8% 0.86× 1.19
Belmont Bruins under 75.5 86.7% 83.9% 73.2% 1.15× 1.19
Belmont Bruins over 55.5 84.2% 80.7% 81.6% 0.99× 1.24
Tennessee Lady Volunteers over 70.5 84.4% 80.7% 26.3% 3.07× 1.24
Tennessee Lady Volunteers under 87.5 79.6% 75.1% 96.6% 0.78× 1.33
Belmont Bruins under 72.5 78.8% 75.1% 65.7% 1.14× 1.33
Belmont Bruins over 58.5 75.2% 75.1% 74.7% 1.01× 1.33
Tennessee Lady Volunteers over 73.5 75.4% 75.1% 19.8% 3.79× 1.33
Belmont Bruins under 70.5 72.2% 70.7% 60.3% 1.17× 1.41
Tennessee Lady Volunteers under 85.5 73.0% 70.7% 95.5% 0.74× 1.41
Belmont Bruins over 60.5 68.0% 66.4% 69.5% 0.96× 1.51
Tennessee Lady Volunteers over 75.5 68.1% 66.4% 15.9% 4.18× 1.51
Tennessee Lady Volunteers under 83.5 65.4% 66.4% 93.9% 0.71× 1.51
Belmont Bruins under 68.5 64.7% 61.2% 54.4% 1.12× 1.63
Belmont Bruins over 62.5 60.1% 61.2% 64.3% 0.95× 1.63
Tennessee Lady Volunteers over 77.5 60.0% 61.2% 12.8% 4.78× 1.63
Tennessee Lady Volunteers under 81.5 57.1% 57.1% 92.0% 0.62× 1.75
Belmont Bruins under 66.5 56.6% 57.1% 48.2% 1.19× 1.75
Belmont Bruins over 64.5 51.8% 52.3% 58.4% 0.89× 1.91
Belmont Bruins under 65.5 52.4% 52.3% 44.7% 1.17× 1.91
Tennessee Lady Volunteers over 79.5 51.5% 52.3% 10.3% 5.05× 1.91
Tennessee Lady Volunteers under 80.5 52.8% 52.3% 91.0% 0.57× 1.91
Belmont Bruins under 64.5 48.2% 47.7% 41.6% 1.15× 2.09
Belmont Bruins over 65.5 47.6% 47.7% 55.3% 0.86× 2.09
Tennessee Lady Volunteers under 79.5 48.5% 47.7% 89.7% 0.53× 2.09
Tennessee Lady Volunteers over 80.5 47.2% 47.7% 9.0% 5.30× 2.09
Belmont Bruins over 66.5 43.4% 42.9% 51.8% 0.83× 2.33
Tennessee Lady Volunteers over 81.5 42.9% 42.9% 8.0% 5.34× 2.33
Belmont Bruins under 62.5 39.9% 38.8% 35.7% 1.09× 2.58
Tennessee Lady Volunteers under 77.5 40.0% 38.8% 87.2% 0.45× 2.58
Belmont Bruins over 68.5 35.3% 38.8% 45.6% 0.85× 2.58
Tennessee Lady Volunteers over 83.5 34.6% 33.6% 6.1% 5.55× 2.98
Belmont Bruins under 60.5 32.0% 33.6% 30.5% 1.10× 2.98
Tennessee Lady Volunteers under 75.5 31.9% 33.6% 84.1% 0.40× 2.98
Belmont Bruins over 70.5 27.8% 29.3% 39.7% 0.74× 3.42
Tennessee Lady Volunteers over 85.5 27.0% 29.3% 4.5% 6.48× 3.42
Belmont Bruins under 58.5 24.8% 24.9% 25.3% 0.98× 4.02
Tennessee Lady Volunteers under 73.5 24.6% 24.9% 80.2% 0.31× 4.02
Belmont Bruins over 72.5 21.3% 24.9% 34.3% 0.72× 4.02
Tennessee Lady Volunteers over 87.5 20.4% 24.9% 3.4% 7.42× 4.02
Belmont Bruins under 55.5 15.8% 19.3% 18.5% 1.05× 5.18
Tennessee Lady Volunteers under 70.5 15.6% 19.3% 73.7% 0.26× 5.18
Belmont Bruins over 75.5 13.3% 16.1% 26.8% 0.60× 6.21
Tennessee Lady Volunteers over 90.5 12.5% 16.1% 2.2% 7.48× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 165.5 points 91.6% 88.8% 96.3% 0.92× 1.13
Over 125.5 points 90.1% 88.8% 59.5% 1.49× 1.13
Under 160.5 points 85.2% 85.0% 93.9% 0.91× 1.18
Over 130.5 points 83.0% 80.6% 48.3% 1.67× 1.24
Under 155.5 points 76.2% 75.6% 90.7% 0.83× 1.32
Over 135.5 points 73.2% 70.8% 37.6% 1.88× 1.41
Under 152.5 points 69.6% 65.9% 88.1% 0.75× 1.52
Over 138.5 points 66.2% 65.9% 32.1% 2.05× 1.52
Under 150.5 points 64.8% 61.5% 86.1% 0.71× 1.63
Over 140.5 points 61.2% 61.5% 28.2% 2.18× 1.63
Under 148.5 points 59.8% 56.5% 83.7% 0.68× 1.77
Over 142.5 points 56.0% 56.5% 24.9% 2.27× 1.77
Under 146.5 points 54.5% 52.3% 80.9% 0.65× 1.91
Under 145.5 points 51.9% 52.3% 79.5% 0.66× 1.91
Over 144.5 points 50.8% 52.3% 21.9% 2.39× 1.91
Under 144.5 points 49.2% 47.7% 78.1% 0.61× 2.10
Over 145.5 points 48.1% 47.7% 20.5% 2.33× 2.10
Over 146.5 points 45.5% 47.7% 19.1% 2.50× 2.10
Under 142.5 points 44.0% 43.5% 75.1% 0.58× 2.30
Over 148.5 points 40.2% 43.5% 16.3% 2.66× 2.30
Under 140.5 points 38.8% 38.5% 71.8% 0.54× 2.60
Over 150.5 points 35.2% 38.5% 13.9% 2.76× 2.60
Under 138.5 points 33.8% 34.1% 67.9% 0.50× 2.93
Over 152.5 points 30.4% 34.1% 11.9% 2.87× 2.93
Under 135.5 points 26.9% 29.2% 62.4% 0.47× 3.43
Over 155.5 points 23.8% 24.4% 9.3% 2.62× 4.10
Under 130.5 points 17.0% 19.4% 51.7% 0.38× 5.15
Over 160.5 points 14.8% 15.0% 6.1% 2.46× 6.68
Under 125.5 points 9.9% 11.2% 40.5% 0.28× 8.96
Over 165.5 points 8.4% 11.2% 3.7% 3.01× 8.96
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Lady Volunteers to win both halves 59.4% 57.8% 20.4% 2.84× 1.73
Belmont Bruins to win both halves 2.2% 3.0% 36.0% 0.08× 33.71
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Lady Volunteers by 11-15 17.7% 16.8% 7.6% 2.20× 5.97
Tennessee Lady Volunteers by 16-20 17.2% 16.8% 4.8% 3.53× 5.97
Tennessee Lady Volunteers by 26+ 16.8% 16.8% 4.6% 3.63× 5.97
Tennessee Lady Volunteers by 6-10 15.1% 16.8% 10.3% 1.63× 5.97
Tennessee Lady Volunteers by 21-25 13.7% 12.3% 2.7% 4.61× 8.11
Tennessee Lady Volunteers by 1-5 10.5% 12.3% 10.2% 1.21× 8.11
Belmont Bruins by 1-5 5.3% 7.5% 10.2% 0.73× 13.40
Belmont Bruins by 6-10 2.4% 2.0% 12.9% 0.16× 49.31
Belmont Bruins by 11-15 0.9% 2.0% 10.8% 0.19× 49.32
Belmont Bruins by 16-20 0.3% 2.0% 8.0% 0.25× 49.33
Belmont Bruins by 21-25 0.1% 2.0% 5.4% 0.38× 49.33
Belmont Bruins by 26+ 0.0% 2.0% 12.6% 0.16× 49.33
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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