Brown Bears v UMBC Retrievers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 21 November 2026 · NCAAW · 2027

NCAAW results-only Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 03:45 UTC

Brown Bears

18:00 UTC

UMBC Retrievers

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Brown Bears win

76.1%

Draw

0.0%

UMBC Retrievers win

23.9%

76024

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
nba-normal	76024	61.55–53.52	62-54 0%	53%	0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brown Bears to score 100+	0.0%	0.4%	1.8%	0.20×	283.36
Brown Bears to score 110+	0.0%	0.4%	0.6%	0.64×	283.36
Brown Bears to score 120+	0.0%	0.4%	0.1%	2.91×	283.36
Brown Bears to score 130+	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	7.58×	283.36
UMBC Retrievers to score 100+	0.0%	0.4%	0.5%	0.71×	283.36
UMBC Retrievers to score 110+	0.0%	0.4%	0.1%	4.74×	283.36
UMBC Retrievers to score 120+	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	18.95×	283.36
UMBC Retrievers to score 130+	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	37.89×	283.36
Both sides to score 100+	0.0%	0.4%	0.1%	6.32×	283.36

H1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brown Bears to win H1	64.1%	62.3%	56.4%	1.10×	1.61
UMBC Retrievers to win H1	31.7%	33.1%	39.9%	0.83×	3.02
H1 tied	4.2%	3.9%	3.7%	1.05×	25.86

H1 total 22

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H1 under 68.5	90.1%	90.8%	73.5%	1.24×	1.10
H1 over 44.5	87.9%	87.7%	94.7%	0.93×	1.14
H1 under 64.5	81.2%	82.5%	60.7%	1.36×	1.21
H1 over 48.5	77.3%	77.4%	88.8%	0.87×	1.29
H1 under 61.5	72.1%	73.5%	49.8%	1.48×	1.36
H1 over 51.5	66.9%	67.4%	82.0%	0.82×	1.48
H1 under 59.5	64.9%	62.7%	42.2%	1.49×	1.59
H1 over 53.5	59.1%	58.2%	76.8%	0.76×	1.72
H1 under 57.5	57.1%	58.2%	35.2%	1.65×	1.72
H1 under 56.5	53.1%	52.6%	31.8%	1.66×	1.90
H1 over 55.5	51.0%	52.6%	71.0%	0.74×	1.90
H1 under 55.5	49.0%	47.4%	29.0%	1.63×	2.11
H1 over 56.5	46.9%	47.4%	68.2%	0.69×	2.11
H1 over 57.5	42.9%	41.8%	64.8%	0.64×	2.39
H1 under 53.5	40.9%	41.8%	23.2%	1.80×	2.39
H1 over 59.5	35.1%	37.3%	57.8%	0.64×	2.68
H1 under 51.5	33.2%	32.6%	18.0%	1.81×	3.07
H1 over 61.5	27.9%	26.5%	50.2%	0.53×	3.77
H1 under 48.5	22.7%	22.6%	11.2%	2.02×	4.43
H1 over 64.5	18.8%	17.5%	39.3%	0.44×	5.72
H1 under 44.5	12.1%	12.3%	5.3%	2.34×	8.14
H1 over 68.5	9.9%	9.2%	26.5%	0.35×	10.86

H2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brown Bears to win H2	65.1%	62.7%	56.0%	1.12×	1.59
UMBC Retrievers to win H2	30.9%	36.3%	40.6%	0.89×	2.76
H2 tied	4.0%	3.9%	3.4%	1.16×	25.35

H2 total 22

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H2 under 73.5	88.5%	85.2%	67.1%	1.27×	1.17
H2 over 49.5	87.5%	85.2%	95.0%	0.90×	1.17
H2 under 69.5	79.4%	75.8%	54.8%	1.38×	1.32
H2 over 53.5	77.2%	75.8%	89.7%	0.85×	1.32
H2 under 66.5	70.2%	72.2%	44.6%	1.62×	1.39
H2 over 56.5	67.2%	66.4%	84.1%	0.79×	1.51
H2 under 64.5	63.2%	61.6%	37.9%	1.63×	1.62
H2 over 58.5	59.8%	57.3%	79.6%	0.72×	1.74
H2 under 62.5	55.7%	57.3%	31.7%	1.81×	1.74
H2 over 60.5	52.1%	52.4%	74.5%	0.70×	1.91
H2 under 61.5	51.8%	52.4%	28.7%	1.82×	1.91
H2 under 60.5	47.9%	47.6%	25.5%	1.87×	2.10
H2 over 61.5	48.2%	47.6%	71.3%	0.67×	2.10
H2 over 62.5	44.3%	42.7%	68.3%	0.62×	2.34
H2 under 58.5	40.2%	42.7%	20.4%	2.09×	2.35
H2 over 64.5	36.8%	38.4%	62.1%	0.62×	2.61
H2 under 56.5	32.8%	33.6%	15.9%	2.12×	2.97
H2 over 66.5	29.8%	27.8%	55.4%	0.50×	3.59
H2 under 53.5	22.8%	24.2%	10.3%	2.34×	4.13
H2 over 69.5	20.6%	24.2%	45.2%	0.54×	4.13
H2 under 49.5	12.5%	14.8%	5.0%	2.94×	6.76
H2 over 73.5	11.5%	14.8%	32.9%	0.45×	6.76

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brown Bears leading at half time	64.1%	62.5%	56.4%	1.11×	1.60
UMBC Retrievers leading at half time	31.7%	32.7%	39.9%	0.82×	3.06
Level at half time	4.2%	3.8%	3.7%	1.03×	26.40

Handicap 60

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brown Bears +20.5	99.5%	97.4%	92.7%	1.05×	1.03
Brown Bears +12.5	96.7%	97.4%	83.8%	1.16×	1.03
Brown Bears +14.5	97.9%	97.4%	86.7%	1.12×	1.03
Brown Bears +16.5	98.7%	97.4%	89.1%	1.09×	1.03
Brown Bears +18.5	99.2%	97.4%	91.1%	1.07×	1.03
Brown Bears +10.5	95.0%	97.4%	80.4%	1.21×	1.03
Brown Bears +8.5	92.8%	91.1%	76.5%	1.19×	1.10
Brown Bears +9.5	94.0%	91.1%	78.7%	1.16×	1.10
Brown Bears +7.5	91.4%	91.1%	74.5%	1.22×	1.10
Brown Bears +6.5	89.8%	85.9%	72.3%	1.19×	1.16
UMBC Retrievers +20.5	88.8%	85.9%	82.0%	1.05×	1.16
Brown Bears +5.5	88.1%	85.9%	70.1%	1.23×	1.16
Brown Bears +4.5	86.1%	85.9%	67.8%	1.27×	1.16
Brown Bears +3.5	83.9%	81.1%	65.7%	1.23×	1.23
UMBC Retrievers +18.5	84.8%	81.1%	79.3%	1.02×	1.23
Brown Bears +2.5	81.5%	81.1%	63.3%	1.28×	1.23
Brown Bears +1.5	78.9%	76.5%	61.2%	1.25×	1.31
UMBC Retrievers +16.5	79.8%	76.5%	75.7%	1.01×	1.31
UMBC Retrievers +14.5	74.0%	71.6%	72.1%	0.99×	1.40
Brown Bears −1.5	72.9%	71.6%	58.7%	1.22×	1.40
Brown Bears −2.5	69.5%	66.7%	56.7%	1.18×	1.50
UMBC Retrievers +12.5	67.5%	66.7%	67.9%	0.98×	1.50
Brown Bears −3.5	66.0%	66.7%	54.2%	1.23×	1.50
Brown Bears −4.5	62.3%	61.9%	52.2%	1.19×	1.62
UMBC Retrievers +10.5	60.3%	61.9%	63.2%	0.98×	1.62
Brown Bears −5.5	58.6%	57.1%	49.7%	1.15×	1.75
UMBC Retrievers +9.5	56.6%	57.1%	60.7%	0.94×	1.75
Brown Bears −6.5	54.8%	52.4%	47.6%	1.10×	1.91
UMBC Retrievers +8.5	52.8%	52.4%	58.0%	0.90×	1.91
Brown Bears −7.5	51.0%	52.4%	44.8%	1.17×	1.91
UMBC Retrievers +7.5	49.0%	47.6%	55.2%	0.86×	2.10
Brown Bears −8.5	47.2%	47.6%	42.0%	1.13×	2.10
UMBC Retrievers +6.5	45.2%	47.6%	52.4%	0.91×	2.10
Brown Bears −9.5	43.4%	42.9%	39.3%	1.09×	2.33
UMBC Retrievers +5.5	41.4%	42.9%	50.3%	0.85×	2.33
Brown Bears −10.5	39.7%	38.1%	36.8%	1.03×	2.63
UMBC Retrievers +4.5	37.7%	38.1%	47.8%	0.80×	2.63
UMBC Retrievers +3.5	34.0%	33.3%	45.8%	0.73×	3.01
Brown Bears −12.5	32.5%	33.3%	32.1%	1.04×	3.01
UMBC Retrievers +2.5	30.5%	33.3%	43.3%	0.77×	3.01
UMBC Retrievers +1.5	27.1%	28.4%	41.3%	0.69×	3.53
Brown Bears −14.5	26.0%	28.4%	27.9%	1.02×	3.53
UMBC Retrievers −1.5	21.1%	23.5%	38.8%	0.61×	4.25
Brown Bears −16.5	20.2%	23.5%	24.3%	0.97×	4.25
UMBC Retrievers −2.5	18.5%	18.9%	36.7%	0.52×	5.29
UMBC Retrievers −3.5	16.1%	18.9%	34.3%	0.55×	5.30
Brown Bears −18.5	15.2%	18.9%	20.7%	0.91×	5.30
UMBC Retrievers −4.5	13.9%	14.1%	32.2%	0.44×	7.09
UMBC Retrievers −5.5	11.9%	14.1%	29.9%	0.47×	7.09
UMBC Retrievers −6.5	10.2%	14.1%	27.7%	0.51×	7.09
Brown Bears −20.5	11.2%	14.1%	18.0%	0.78×	7.09
UMBC Retrievers −7.5	8.6%	8.9%	25.5%	0.35×	11.25
UMBC Retrievers −8.5	7.2%	8.9%	23.5%	0.38×	11.25
UMBC Retrievers −9.5	6.0%	8.9%	21.3%	0.42×	11.25
UMBC Retrievers −10.5	5.0%	2.6%	19.6%	0.13×	38.72
UMBC Retrievers −12.5	3.3%	2.6%	16.2%	0.16×	38.73
UMBC Retrievers −14.5	2.1%	2.6%	13.3%	0.19×	38.73
UMBC Retrievers −16.5	1.3%	2.6%	10.9%	0.24×	38.74
UMBC Retrievers −18.5	0.8%	2.6%	8.9%	0.29×	38.74
UMBC Retrievers −20.5	0.5%	2.6%	7.3%	0.35×	38.74

Highest scoring half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	69.9%	71.6%	66.7%	1.07×	1.40
1st half highest scoring	30.1%	28.4%	33.3%	0.85×	3.52

Highest scoring quarter 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q4 highest scoring	33.5%	31.9%	31.2%	1.02×	3.14
Q3 highest scoring	31.8%	31.9%	31.3%	1.02×	3.14
Q1 highest scoring	18.1%	18.3%	19.6%	0.94×	5.46
Q2 highest scoring	16.6%	18.3%	17.9%	1.02×	5.46

HT/FT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brown Bears at HT / Brown Bears at FT	56.7%	56.8%	48.3%	1.18×	1.76
UMBC Retrievers at HT / Brown Bears at FT	16.4%	15.5%	9.8%	1.58×	6.47
UMBC Retrievers at HT / UMBC Retrievers at FT	15.4%	15.4%	30.1%	0.51×	6.47
Brown Bears at HT / UMBC Retrievers at FT	7.4%	8.3%	8.2%	1.01×	12.09
Level at HT / Brown Bears at FT	3.0%	2.1%	1.9%	1.09×	47.74
Level at HT / UMBC Retrievers at FT	1.2%	2.1%	1.8%	1.20×	47.77

Moneyline 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brown Bears to win	76.1%	75.1%	59.9%	1.25×	1.33
UMBC Retrievers to win	23.9%	24.9%	40.1%	0.62×	4.01

Odd/Even 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Total points odd	51.5%	50.5%	51.5%	0.98×	1.98
Brown Bears even	50.1%	50.5%	49.4%	1.02×	1.98
UMBC Retrievers even	50.4%	50.5%	50.1%	1.01×	1.98
Brown Bears odd	49.9%	49.5%	50.6%	0.98×	2.02
UMBC Retrievers odd	49.6%	49.5%	49.9%	0.99×	2.02
Total points even	48.5%	49.5%	48.5%	1.02×	2.02

Overtime 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No overtime	94.7%	94.0%	95.6%	0.98×	1.06
Match to go to overtime	5.3%	6.0%	4.4%	1.35×	16.66

Q1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brown Bears to win Q1	58.1%	57.3%	54.7%	1.05×	1.75
UMBC Retrievers to win Q1	36.0%	38.2%	40.4%	0.95×	2.62
Q1 tied	5.9%	5.5%	4.9%	1.11×	18.32

Q1 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 under 36.5	89.8%	87.4%	77.4%	1.13×	1.14
Q1 over 20.5	87.4%	87.4%	93.7%	0.93×	1.14
Q1 under 33.5	79.4%	76.9%	64.0%	1.20×	1.30
Q1 over 23.5	75.4%	76.9%	85.4%	0.90×	1.30
Q1 under 31.5	69.8%	67.6%	54.0%	1.25×	1.48
Q1 over 25.5	65.0%	61.7%	77.6%	0.80×	1.62
Q1 under 29.5	58.7%	58.6%	43.1%	1.36×	1.71
Q1 over 27.5	53.3%	52.7%	67.7%	0.78×	1.90
Q1 under 28.5	52.7%	52.7%	37.3%	1.41×	1.90
Q1 over 28.5	47.3%	47.3%	62.7%	0.76×	2.11
Q1 under 27.5	46.7%	47.3%	32.3%	1.47×	2.11
Q1 over 29.5	41.3%	41.4%	56.9%	0.73×	2.42
Q1 under 25.5	35.0%	38.3%	22.4%	1.71×	2.61
Q1 over 31.5	30.2%	32.4%	46.0%	0.70×	3.08
Q1 under 23.5	24.6%	23.1%	14.6%	1.58×	4.33
Q1 over 33.5	20.6%	23.1%	36.0%	0.64×	4.33
Q1 under 20.5	12.6%	12.6%	6.3%	1.99×	7.95
Q1 over 36.5	10.2%	12.6%	22.6%	0.56×	7.95

Q2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brown Bears to win Q2	57.8%	59.4%	52.9%	1.12×	1.68
UMBC Retrievers to win Q2	36.4%	35.7%	41.5%	0.86×	2.80
Q2 tied	5.8%	6.1%	5.7%	1.07×	16.49

Q2 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q2 under 36.5	90.5%	90.8%	78.7%	1.15×	1.10
Q2 over 20.5	86.4%	87.3%	92.7%	0.94×	1.15
Q2 under 33.5	80.6%	83.0%	65.6%	1.27×	1.21
Q2 over 23.5	74.0%	72.0%	84.6%	0.85×	1.39
Q2 under 31.5	71.3%	72.0%	55.7%	1.29×	1.39
Q2 over 25.5	63.3%	60.7%	76.2%	0.80×	1.65
Q2 under 29.5	60.4%	60.7%	44.2%	1.37×	1.65
Q2 under 28.5	54.5%	52.7%	38.8%	1.36×	1.90
Q2 over 27.5	51.5%	52.7%	66.7%	0.79×	1.90
Q2 under 27.5	48.5%	47.3%	33.3%	1.42×	2.11
Q2 over 28.5	45.5%	47.3%	61.2%	0.77×	2.11
Q2 over 29.5	39.6%	39.3%	55.8%	0.70×	2.55
Q2 under 25.5	36.7%	39.3%	23.8%	1.65×	2.55
Q2 over 31.5	28.7%	28.0%	44.3%	0.63×	3.57
Q2 under 23.5	26.0%	28.0%	15.4%	1.82×	3.57
Q2 over 33.5	19.4%	17.0%	34.4%	0.49×	5.88
Q2 under 20.5	13.6%	12.7%	7.3%	1.74×	7.89
Q2 over 36.5	9.5%	9.2%	21.3%	0.43×	10.83

Q3 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brown Bears to win Q3	58.8%	56.8%	53.3%	1.07×	1.76
UMBC Retrievers to win Q3	35.5%	38.8%	41.8%	0.93×	2.58
Q3 tied	5.7%	5.3%	4.9%	1.07×	18.97

Q3 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q3 over 22.5	88.3%	87.2%	94.1%	0.93×	1.15
Q3 under 38.5	87.8%	87.2%	73.9%	1.18×	1.15
Q3 over 25.5	77.1%	77.3%	86.9%	0.89×	1.29
Q3 under 35.5	76.7%	77.3%	59.7%	1.30×	1.29
Q3 over 27.5	67.2%	67.8%	80.0%	0.85×	1.48
Q3 under 33.5	66.9%	67.8%	49.1%	1.38×	1.48
Q3 over 29.5	56.0%	58.4%	71.8%	0.81×	1.71
Q3 under 31.5	55.7%	58.4%	38.4%	1.52×	1.71
Q3 over 30.5	50.1%	52.3%	66.8%	0.78×	1.91
Q3 under 30.5	49.9%	47.7%	33.2%	1.44×	2.10
Q3 over 31.5	44.3%	41.6%	61.6%	0.68×	2.40
Q3 under 29.5	44.0%	41.6%	28.2%	1.48×	2.40
Q3 under 27.5	32.8%	32.2%	20.0%	1.61×	3.10
Q3 over 33.5	33.1%	32.2%	50.9%	0.63×	3.10
Q3 under 25.5	22.9%	22.7%	13.1%	1.74×	4.40
Q3 over 35.5	23.3%	22.7%	40.3%	0.56×	4.40
Q3 over 38.5	12.2%	12.8%	26.1%	0.49×	7.83
Q3 under 22.5	11.7%	12.8%	5.9%	2.18×	7.83

Q4 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brown Bears to win Q4	58.6%	52.1%	52.8%	0.99×	1.92
UMBC Retrievers to win Q4	35.7%	42.4%	41.5%	1.02×	2.36
Q4 tied	5.6%	5.8%	5.7%	1.02×	17.25

Q4 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q4 over 22.5	87.0%	85.6%	93.3%	0.92×	1.17
Q4 under 38.5	86.3%	85.6%	73.1%	1.17×	1.17
Q4 over 25.5	76.0%	76.9%	86.1%	0.89×	1.30
Q4 under 35.5	75.2%	76.9%	59.4%	1.29×	1.30
Q4 over 27.5	66.6%	67.4%	78.9%	0.85×	1.48
Q4 under 33.5	65.7%	67.4%	49.6%	1.36×	1.48
Q4 over 29.5	56.0%	58.4%	70.8%	0.82×	1.71
Q4 under 31.5	55.1%	58.4%	38.9%	1.50×	1.71
Q4 over 30.5	50.4%	52.5%	66.3%	0.79×	1.91
Q4 under 30.5	49.6%	47.5%	33.7%	1.41×	2.11
Q4 over 31.5	44.9%	41.6%	61.1%	0.68×	2.40
Q4 under 29.5	44.0%	41.6%	29.2%	1.43×	2.40
Q4 over 33.5	34.3%	32.6%	50.4%	0.65×	3.07
Q4 under 27.5	33.4%	32.6%	21.1%	1.54×	3.07
Q4 over 35.5	24.8%	23.1%	40.6%	0.57×	4.33
Q4 under 25.5	24.0%	23.1%	13.9%	1.66×	4.33
Q4 over 38.5	13.7%	14.4%	26.9%	0.53×	6.95
Q4 under 22.5	13.0%	14.4%	6.7%	2.13×	6.95

Team total 44

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
UMBC Retrievers over 44.5	89.2%	83.9%	92.5%	0.91×	1.19
UMBC Retrievers under 64.5	87.4%	83.9%	56.9%	1.48×	1.19
Brown Bears under 72.5	86.4%	83.9%	65.7%	1.28×	1.19
Brown Bears over 52.5	85.1%	83.9%	87.7%	0.96×	1.19
Brown Bears under 69.5	78.2%	75.1%	57.4%	1.31×	1.33
UMBC Retrievers over 47.5	79.2%	75.1%	88.4%	0.85×	1.33
UMBC Retrievers under 61.5	79.3%	75.1%	47.9%	1.57×	1.33
Brown Bears over 55.5	76.3%	75.1%	81.6%	0.92×	1.33
UMBC Retrievers under 59.5	72.4%	70.7%	41.2%	1.72×	1.41
Brown Bears under 67.5	71.4%	70.7%	51.3%	1.38×	1.41
UMBC Retrievers over 49.5	71.2%	70.7%	85.1%	0.83×	1.41
Brown Bears over 57.5	69.1%	66.4%	77.2%	0.86×	1.51
Brown Bears under 65.5	63.8%	61.2%	44.7%	1.37×	1.63
UMBC Retrievers under 57.5	64.5%	61.2%	34.9%	1.76×	1.63
UMBC Retrievers over 51.5	62.5%	61.2%	81.0%	0.76×	1.63
Brown Bears over 59.5	61.3%	61.2%	72.2%	0.85×	1.63
Brown Bears under 63.5	55.6%	57.1%	38.5%	1.48×	1.75
UMBC Retrievers under 55.5	55.8%	57.1%	29.2%	1.95×	1.75
Brown Bears over 61.5	52.9%	52.3%	66.9%	0.78×	1.91
Brown Bears under 62.5	51.4%	52.3%	35.7%	1.46×	1.91
UMBC Retrievers over 53.5	53.3%	52.3%	76.3%	0.69×	1.91
UMBC Retrievers under 54.5	51.3%	52.3%	26.5%	1.97×	1.91
Brown Bears under 61.5	47.1%	47.7%	33.1%	1.44×	2.09
Brown Bears over 62.5	48.6%	47.7%	64.3%	0.74×	2.09
UMBC Retrievers under 53.5	46.7%	47.7%	23.7%	2.01×	2.09
UMBC Retrievers over 54.5	48.7%	47.7%	73.5%	0.65×	2.09
Brown Bears over 63.5	44.4%	42.9%	61.5%	0.70×	2.33
UMBC Retrievers over 55.5	44.2%	42.9%	70.8%	0.61×	2.33
Brown Bears under 59.5	38.7%	38.8%	27.8%	1.39×	2.58
UMBC Retrievers under 51.5	37.5%	38.8%	19.0%	2.04×	2.58
Brown Bears over 65.5	36.2%	38.8%	55.3%	0.70×	2.58
UMBC Retrievers over 57.5	35.5%	38.8%	65.1%	0.60×	2.58
Brown Bears under 57.5	30.9%	33.6%	22.8%	1.47×	2.98
Brown Bears over 67.5	28.6%	29.3%	48.7%	0.60×	3.42
UMBC Retrievers under 49.5	28.8%	29.3%	14.9%	1.96×	3.42
UMBC Retrievers over 59.5	27.6%	29.3%	58.8%	0.50×	3.42
Brown Bears under 55.5	23.7%	24.9%	18.5%	1.35×	4.02
Brown Bears over 69.5	21.8%	24.9%	42.6%	0.58×	4.02
UMBC Retrievers under 47.5	20.8%	24.9%	11.6%	2.14×	4.02
UMBC Retrievers over 61.5	20.7%	24.9%	52.1%	0.48×	4.02
Brown Bears under 52.5	14.9%	16.1%	12.3%	1.30×	6.21
Brown Bears over 72.5	13.6%	16.1%	34.3%	0.47×	6.21
UMBC Retrievers over 64.5	12.6%	16.1%	43.2%	0.37×	6.21
UMBC Retrievers under 44.5	10.8%	16.1%	7.5%	2.15×	6.21

Total points 30

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 97.5 points	92.8%	88.8%	96.9%	0.92×	1.13
Under 137.5 points	92.6%	88.8%	66.2%	1.34×	1.13
Under 132.5 points	86.5%	85.0%	56.0%	1.52×	1.18
Over 102.5 points	85.2%	85.0%	94.3%	0.90×	1.18
Under 127.5 points	77.8%	75.6%	44.9%	1.69×	1.32
Over 107.5 points	74.4%	70.8%	90.2%	0.79×	1.41
Under 124.5 points	71.2%	70.8%	38.5%	1.84×	1.41
Over 110.5 points	66.8%	65.9%	86.4%	0.76×	1.52
Under 122.5 points	66.3%	65.9%	34.4%	1.91×	1.52
Over 112.5 points	61.3%	61.5%	83.6%	0.74×	1.63
Under 120.5 points	61.1%	61.5%	30.2%	2.04×	1.63
Over 114.5 points	55.7%	56.5%	80.4%	0.70×	1.77
Under 118.5 points	55.6%	56.5%	26.4%	2.14×	1.77
Under 117.5 points	52.9%	52.3%	24.7%	2.12×	1.91
Over 116.5 points	50.0%	52.3%	77.2%	0.68×	1.91
Under 116.5 points	50.0%	47.7%	22.8%	2.09×	2.10
Over 117.5 points	47.1%	47.7%	75.3%	0.63×	2.10
Under 114.5 points	44.3%	43.5%	19.6%	2.22×	2.30
Over 118.5 points	44.4%	43.5%	73.6%	0.59×	2.30
Under 112.5 points	38.7%	38.5%	16.4%	2.35×	2.60
Over 120.5 points	38.9%	38.5%	69.8%	0.55×	2.60
Over 122.5 points	33.7%	34.1%	65.6%	0.52×	2.93
Under 110.5 points	33.2%	34.1%	13.6%	2.52×	2.93
Over 124.5 points	28.8%	29.2%	61.5%	0.47×	3.43
Under 107.5 points	25.6%	29.2%	9.8%	2.97×	3.43
Over 127.5 points	22.2%	24.4%	55.1%	0.44×	4.10
Under 102.5 points	14.8%	15.0%	5.7%	2.61×	6.68
Over 132.5 points	13.5%	15.0%	44.0%	0.34×	6.69
Over 137.5 points	7.4%	11.2%	33.8%	0.33×	8.97
Under 97.5 points	7.2%	11.2%	3.1%	3.64×	8.97

Win both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brown Bears to win both halves	38.6%	36.3%	36.0%	1.01×	2.75
UMBC Retrievers to win both halves	7.1%	8.8%	20.4%	0.43×	11.32

Winning margin 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brown Bears by 6-10	18.9%	16.8%	12.9%	1.30×	5.97
Brown Bears by 1-5	17.5%	16.8%	10.2%	1.64×	5.97
Brown Bears by 11-15	16.7%	16.8%	10.8%	1.55×	5.97
UMBC Retrievers by 1-5	12.0%	12.3%	10.2%	1.21×	8.11
Brown Bears by 16-20	11.8%	12.3%	8.0%	1.53×	8.11
UMBC Retrievers by 6-10	7.0%	7.5%	10.3%	0.72×	13.40
Brown Bears by 21-25	6.7%	7.5%	5.4%	1.39×	13.40
Brown Bears by 26+	4.4%	2.0%	12.6%	0.16×	49.29
UMBC Retrievers by 11-15	3.3%	2.0%	7.6%	0.27×	49.30
UMBC Retrievers by 16-20	1.2%	2.0%	4.8%	0.43×	49.32
UMBC Retrievers by 21-25	0.4%	2.0%	2.7%	0.76×	49.32
UMBC Retrievers by 26+	0.1%	2.0%	4.6%	0.44×	49.33

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