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Bucknell Bison v Iona Gaels — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 21 November 2026 · NCAAW · 2027

NCAAW results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Bucknell Bison win
51.5%
Draw
0.0%
Iona Gaels win
48.5%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 54.10–53.76 54-53 0% 55% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bucknell Bison to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 1.8% 0.20× 283.36
Bucknell Bison to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.64× 283.36
Bucknell Bison to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 2.91× 283.36
Bucknell Bison to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 7.58× 283.36
Iona Gaels to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.71× 283.36
Iona Gaels to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.74× 283.36
Iona Gaels to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 18.95× 283.36
Iona Gaels to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 37.89× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 6.32× 283.36
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bucknell Bison to win H1 48.6% 47.3% 56.4% 0.84× 2.11
Iona Gaels to win H1 46.8% 47.3% 39.9% 1.19× 2.11
H1 tied 4.6% 3.9% 3.7% 1.05× 25.85
H1 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 65.5 90.4% 90.8% 63.9% 1.42× 1.10
H1 over 41.5 88.6% 87.7% 97.5% 0.90× 1.14
H1 under 61.5 81.6% 82.5% 49.8% 1.66× 1.21
H1 over 45.5 77.9% 77.4% 93.5% 0.83× 1.29
H1 under 58.5 72.3% 73.5% 38.6% 1.90× 1.36
H1 over 48.5 67.3% 67.4% 88.8% 0.76× 1.48
H1 under 56.5 65.1% 67.4% 31.8% 2.12× 1.48
H1 over 50.5 59.4% 58.2% 84.5% 0.69× 1.72
H1 under 54.5 57.2% 58.2% 26.0% 2.24× 1.72
H1 under 53.5 53.0% 52.6% 23.2% 2.27× 1.90
H1 over 52.5 51.1% 52.6% 79.6% 0.66× 1.90
H1 under 52.5 48.9% 47.4% 20.4% 2.32× 2.11
H1 over 53.5 47.0% 47.4% 76.8% 0.62× 2.11
H1 over 54.5 42.8% 41.8% 74.0% 0.57× 2.39
H1 under 50.5 40.6% 41.8% 15.5% 2.70× 2.39
H1 over 56.5 34.9% 32.6% 68.2% 0.48× 3.07
H1 under 48.5 32.7% 32.6% 11.2% 2.92× 3.07
H1 over 58.5 27.7% 26.5% 61.4% 0.43× 3.77
H1 under 45.5 22.1% 22.6% 6.5% 3.47× 4.43
H1 over 61.5 18.4% 17.5% 50.2% 0.35× 5.72
H1 under 41.5 11.4% 12.3% 2.5% 4.85× 8.14
H1 over 65.5 9.6% 9.2% 36.1% 0.25× 10.87
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bucknell Bison to win H2 48.7% 47.1% 56.0% 0.84× 2.12
Iona Gaels to win H2 46.8% 47.1% 40.6% 1.16× 2.12
H2 tied 4.5% 3.9% 3.4% 1.16× 25.35
H2 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 70.5 89.4% 85.2% 57.8% 1.47× 1.17
H2 over 46.5 87.7% 85.2% 97.2% 0.88× 1.17
H2 under 66.5 80.5% 81.8% 44.6% 1.83× 1.22
H2 over 50.5 77.0% 75.8% 94.0% 0.81× 1.32
H2 under 63.5 71.5% 72.2% 34.7% 2.08× 1.39
H2 over 53.5 66.7% 66.4% 89.7% 0.74× 1.51
H2 under 61.5 64.5% 61.6% 28.7% 2.14× 1.62
H2 over 55.5 59.0% 57.3% 86.1% 0.67× 1.74
H2 under 59.5 56.9% 57.3% 23.0% 2.50× 1.74
H2 under 58.5 52.9% 52.4% 20.4% 2.57× 1.91
H2 over 57.5 51.1% 52.4% 82.2% 0.64× 1.91
H2 under 57.5 48.9% 47.6% 17.8% 2.67× 2.10
H2 over 58.5 47.1% 47.6% 79.6% 0.60× 2.10
H2 over 59.5 43.1% 42.7% 77.0% 0.55× 2.34
H2 under 55.5 41.0% 42.7% 13.9% 3.07× 2.35
H2 over 61.5 35.5% 38.4% 71.3% 0.54× 2.61
H2 under 53.5 33.3% 33.6% 10.3% 3.26× 2.97
H2 over 63.5 28.5% 27.8% 65.3% 0.43× 3.59
H2 under 50.5 23.0% 24.2% 6.0% 4.01× 4.13
H2 over 66.5 19.5% 18.2% 55.4% 0.33× 5.50
H2 under 46.5 12.3% 14.8% 2.8% 5.22× 6.76
H2 over 70.5 10.6% 14.8% 42.2% 0.35× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bucknell Bison leading at half time 48.6% 47.2% 56.4% 0.84× 2.12
Iona Gaels leading at half time 46.8% 47.2% 39.9% 1.18× 2.12
Level at half time 4.6% 3.8% 3.7% 1.03× 26.40
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Iona Gaels +18.5 95.9% 97.4% 79.3% 1.23× 1.03
Bucknell Bison +18.5 96.6% 97.4% 91.1% 1.07× 1.03
Iona Gaels +20.5 97.3% 97.4% 82.0% 1.19× 1.03
Bucknell Bison +20.5 97.8% 97.4% 92.7% 1.05× 1.03
Bucknell Bison +16.5 94.7% 91.1% 89.1% 1.02× 1.10
Bucknell Bison +14.5 92.3% 91.1% 86.7% 1.05× 1.10
Iona Gaels +16.5 93.8% 91.1% 75.7% 1.20× 1.10
Iona Gaels +14.5 91.0% 91.1% 72.1% 1.26× 1.10
Bucknell Bison +12.5 89.0% 85.9% 83.8% 1.03× 1.16
Iona Gaels +12.5 87.4% 85.9% 67.9% 1.27× 1.16
Bucknell Bison +10.5 84.8% 81.1% 80.4% 1.01× 1.23
Bucknell Bison +9.5 82.4% 81.1% 78.7% 1.03× 1.23
Iona Gaels +10.5 82.9% 81.1% 63.2% 1.28× 1.23
Iona Gaels +9.5 80.3% 81.1% 60.7% 1.34× 1.23
Bucknell Bison +8.5 79.7% 76.5% 76.5% 1.00× 1.31
Iona Gaels +8.5 77.5% 76.5% 58.0% 1.32× 1.31
Bucknell Bison +7.5 76.8% 76.5% 74.5% 1.03× 1.31
Bucknell Bison +6.5 73.7% 71.6% 72.3% 0.99× 1.40
Iona Gaels +7.5 74.5% 71.6% 55.2% 1.30× 1.40
Iona Gaels +6.5 71.2% 71.6% 52.4% 1.37× 1.40
Bucknell Bison +5.5 70.4% 71.6% 70.1% 1.02× 1.40
Iona Gaels +5.5 67.8% 66.7% 50.3% 1.33× 1.50
Bucknell Bison +4.5 66.9% 66.7% 67.8% 0.98× 1.50
Iona Gaels +4.5 64.2% 61.9% 47.8% 1.29× 1.62
Bucknell Bison +3.5 63.2% 61.9% 65.7% 0.94× 1.62
Iona Gaels +3.5 60.4% 61.9% 45.8% 1.35× 1.62
Bucknell Bison +2.5 59.4% 57.1% 63.3% 0.90× 1.75
Iona Gaels +2.5 56.5% 57.1% 43.3% 1.32× 1.75
Bucknell Bison +1.5 55.5% 57.1% 61.2% 0.93× 1.75
Iona Gaels +1.5 52.6% 52.4% 41.3% 1.27× 1.91
Bucknell Bison −1.5 47.4% 47.6% 58.7% 0.81× 2.10
Iona Gaels −1.5 44.5% 42.9% 38.8% 1.11× 2.33
Bucknell Bison −2.5 43.5% 42.9% 56.7% 0.76× 2.33
Iona Gaels −2.5 40.6% 42.9% 36.7% 1.17× 2.33
Bucknell Bison −3.5 39.6% 38.1% 54.2% 0.70× 2.63
Iona Gaels −3.5 36.8% 38.1% 34.3% 1.11× 2.63
Bucknell Bison −4.5 35.8% 38.1% 52.2% 0.73× 2.63
Iona Gaels −4.5 33.1% 33.3% 32.2% 1.03× 3.01
Bucknell Bison −5.5 32.2% 33.3% 49.7% 0.67× 3.01
Iona Gaels −5.5 29.6% 28.4% 29.9% 0.95× 3.53
Bucknell Bison −6.5 28.8% 28.4% 47.6% 0.60× 3.53
Iona Gaels −6.5 26.3% 28.4% 27.7% 1.02× 3.53
Bucknell Bison −7.5 25.5% 28.4% 44.8% 0.63× 3.53
Iona Gaels −7.5 23.2% 23.5% 25.5% 0.92× 4.25
Bucknell Bison −8.5 22.5% 23.5% 42.0% 0.56× 4.25
Iona Gaels −8.5 20.3% 23.5% 23.5% 1.00× 4.25
Bucknell Bison −9.5 19.7% 18.9% 39.3% 0.48× 5.29
Iona Gaels −9.5 17.6% 18.9% 21.3% 0.89× 5.29
Bucknell Bison −10.5 17.1% 18.9% 36.8% 0.51× 5.29
Iona Gaels −10.5 15.2% 18.9% 19.6% 0.96× 5.30
Bucknell Bison −12.5 12.6% 14.1% 32.1% 0.44× 7.09
Iona Gaels −12.5 11.0% 14.1% 16.2% 0.87× 7.09
Bucknell Bison −14.5 9.0% 8.9% 27.9% 0.32× 11.25
Iona Gaels −14.5 7.7% 8.9% 13.3% 0.67× 11.25
Bucknell Bison −16.5 6.2% 8.9% 24.3% 0.37× 11.25
Iona Gaels −16.5 5.3% 8.9% 10.9% 0.82× 11.25
Bucknell Bison −18.5 4.1% 2.6% 20.7% 0.12× 38.72
Iona Gaels −18.5 3.4% 2.6% 8.9% 0.29× 38.73
Bucknell Bison −20.5 2.7% 2.6% 18.0% 0.14× 38.73
Iona Gaels −20.5 2.2% 2.6% 7.3% 0.36× 38.73
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 69.0% 71.5% 66.7% 1.07× 1.40
1st half highest scoring 31.0% 28.5% 33.3% 0.85× 3.52
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 highest scoring 33.1% 31.9% 31.2% 1.02× 3.14
Q3 highest scoring 31.4% 31.9% 31.3% 1.02× 3.14
Q1 highest scoring 18.4% 18.3% 19.6% 0.94× 5.46
Q2 highest scoring 17.0% 18.3% 17.9% 1.02× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bucknell Bison at HT / Bucknell Bison at FT 35.1% 37.7% 48.3% 0.78× 2.65
Iona Gaels at HT / Iona Gaels at FT 32.9% 33.2% 30.1% 1.10× 3.01
Iona Gaels at HT / Bucknell Bison at FT 14.0% 12.2% 9.8% 1.25× 8.17
Bucknell Bison at HT / Iona Gaels at FT 13.4% 12.2% 8.2% 1.49× 8.17
Level at HT / Bucknell Bison at FT 2.4% 2.1% 1.9% 1.09× 47.75
Level at HT / Iona Gaels at FT 2.3% 2.1% 1.8% 1.20× 47.75
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bucknell Bison to win 51.5% 51.0% 59.9% 0.85× 1.96
Iona Gaels to win 48.5% 49.0% 40.1% 1.22× 2.04
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Total points odd 52.0% 50.5% 51.5% 0.98× 1.98
Bucknell Bison even 50.3% 50.5% 49.4% 1.02× 1.98
Iona Gaels even 50.3% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
Bucknell Bison odd 49.7% 49.5% 50.6% 0.98× 2.02
Iona Gaels odd 49.7% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
Total points even 48.0% 49.5% 48.5% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 93.9% 94.0% 95.6% 0.98× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 6.1% 6.0% 4.4% 1.35× 16.66
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bucknell Bison to win Q1 47.5% 47.6% 54.7% 0.87× 2.10
Iona Gaels to win Q1 46.3% 47.6% 40.4% 1.18× 2.10
Q1 tied 6.2% 5.5% 4.9% 1.11× 18.31
Q1 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 over 18.5 89.3% 87.4% 96.9% 0.90× 1.14
Q1 under 34.5 88.6% 87.4% 68.5% 1.28× 1.14
Q1 over 21.5 78.1% 76.9% 91.5% 0.84× 1.30
Q1 under 31.5 77.3% 76.9% 54.0% 1.42× 1.30
Q1 over 23.5 68.0% 67.6% 85.4% 0.79× 1.48
Q1 under 29.5 67.3% 67.6% 43.1% 1.57× 1.48
Q1 over 25.5 56.4% 58.6% 77.6% 0.76× 1.71
Q1 under 27.5 55.7% 58.6% 32.3% 1.82× 1.71
Q1 over 26.5 50.4% 52.7% 72.9% 0.72× 1.90
Q1 under 26.5 49.6% 47.3% 27.1% 1.75× 2.11
Q1 over 27.5 44.3% 41.4% 67.7% 0.61× 2.42
Q1 under 25.5 43.6% 41.4% 22.4% 1.84× 2.42
Q1 over 29.5 32.7% 32.4% 56.9% 0.57× 3.08
Q1 under 23.5 32.0% 32.4% 14.6% 2.22× 3.08
Q1 over 31.5 22.7% 23.1% 46.0% 0.50× 4.33
Q1 under 21.5 21.9% 23.1% 8.5% 2.73× 4.33
Q1 over 34.5 11.4% 12.6% 31.5% 0.40× 7.95
Q1 under 18.5 10.7% 12.6% 3.1% 4.02× 7.95
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bucknell Bison to win Q2 47.5% 47.0% 52.9% 0.89× 2.13
Iona Gaels to win Q2 46.4% 47.0% 41.5% 1.13× 2.13
Q2 tied 6.1% 6.1% 5.7% 1.07× 16.49
Q2 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 under 34.5 89.3% 87.3% 70.1% 1.25× 1.15
Q2 over 18.5 88.4% 87.3% 96.1% 0.91× 1.15
Q2 under 31.5 78.6% 76.8% 55.7% 1.38× 1.30
Q2 over 21.5 76.8% 76.8% 90.2% 0.85× 1.30
Q2 under 29.5 68.8% 67.4% 44.2% 1.53× 1.49
Q2 over 23.5 66.5% 67.4% 84.6% 0.80× 1.49
Q2 under 27.5 57.3% 58.2% 33.3% 1.75× 1.72
Q2 over 25.5 54.8% 52.7% 76.2% 0.69× 1.90
Q2 under 26.5 51.3% 52.7% 28.4% 1.86× 1.90
Q2 over 26.5 48.7% 47.3% 71.6% 0.66× 2.11
Q2 under 25.5 45.2% 47.3% 23.8% 1.99× 2.11
Q2 over 27.5 42.7% 41.8% 66.7% 0.63× 2.39
Q2 under 23.5 33.5% 32.6% 15.4% 2.12× 3.06
Q2 over 29.5 31.2% 32.6% 55.8% 0.58× 3.06
Q2 under 21.5 23.2% 23.2% 9.8% 2.37× 4.31
Q2 over 31.5 21.4% 23.2% 44.3% 0.52× 4.31
Q2 under 18.5 11.6% 12.7% 3.9% 3.22× 7.89
Q2 over 34.5 10.7% 12.7% 29.9% 0.42× 7.90
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bucknell Bison to win Q3 47.6% 47.6% 53.3% 0.89× 2.10
Iona Gaels to win Q3 46.4% 47.5% 41.8% 1.14× 2.10
Q3 tied 6.0% 5.3% 4.9% 1.07× 18.96
Q3 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 under 37.5 89.8% 87.2% 69.7% 1.25× 1.15
Q3 over 21.5 86.7% 87.2% 95.8% 0.91× 1.15
Q3 under 34.5 79.7% 77.3% 54.6% 1.41× 1.29
Q3 over 24.5 74.5% 71.8% 89.9% 0.80× 1.39
Q3 under 32.5 70.3% 71.8% 43.9% 1.63× 1.39
Q3 over 26.5 64.0% 62.0% 83.8% 0.74× 1.61
Q3 under 30.5 59.4% 58.4% 33.2% 1.76× 1.71
Q3 under 29.5 53.6% 52.3% 28.2% 1.86× 1.91
Q3 over 28.5 52.4% 52.3% 76.4% 0.68× 1.91
Q3 under 28.5 47.6% 47.7% 23.6% 2.02× 2.10
Q3 over 29.5 46.4% 47.7% 71.8% 0.66× 2.10
Q3 over 30.5 40.6% 41.6% 66.8% 0.62× 2.40
Q3 under 26.5 36.0% 38.0% 16.2% 2.35× 2.63
Q3 over 32.5 29.7% 28.2% 56.1% 0.50× 3.55
Q3 under 24.5 25.5% 28.2% 10.1% 2.80× 3.55
Q3 over 34.5 20.3% 22.7% 45.4% 0.50× 4.40
Q3 under 21.5 13.3% 12.8% 4.2% 3.01× 7.83
Q3 over 37.5 10.2% 12.8% 30.3% 0.42× 7.83
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bucknell Bison to win Q4 47.7% 47.6% 52.8% 0.90× 2.10
Iona Gaels to win Q4 46.4% 47.6% 41.5% 1.15× 2.10
Q4 tied 5.9% 5.8% 5.7% 1.02× 17.25
Q4 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 under 37.5 88.3% 85.6% 68.8% 1.24× 1.17
Q4 over 21.5 85.4% 85.6% 95.0% 0.90× 1.17
Q4 under 34.5 78.0% 76.9% 54.4% 1.41× 1.30
Q4 over 24.5 73.5% 71.5% 89.0% 0.80× 1.40
Q4 under 32.5 69.0% 67.4% 44.6% 1.51× 1.48
Q4 over 26.5 63.6% 61.4% 82.6% 0.74× 1.63
Q4 under 30.5 58.5% 58.4% 33.7% 1.73× 1.71
Q4 under 29.5 53.0% 52.5% 29.2% 1.80× 1.91
Q4 over 28.5 52.6% 52.5% 75.1% 0.70× 1.91
Q4 under 28.5 47.4% 47.5% 24.9% 1.91× 2.11
Q4 over 29.5 47.0% 47.5% 70.8% 0.67× 2.11
Q4 over 30.5 41.5% 41.6% 66.3% 0.63× 2.40
Q4 under 26.5 36.5% 38.6% 17.4% 2.22× 2.59
Q4 over 32.5 31.0% 32.6% 55.4% 0.59× 3.07
Q4 under 24.5 26.5% 28.5% 11.0% 2.59× 3.51
Q4 over 34.5 22.0% 23.1% 45.6% 0.51× 4.33
Q4 under 21.5 14.6% 14.4% 5.0% 2.90× 6.95
Q4 over 37.5 11.7% 14.4% 31.2% 0.46× 6.95
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bucknell Bison over 45.5 87.7% 83.9% 96.0% 0.87× 1.19
Iona Gaels over 45.5 87.3% 83.9% 91.3% 0.92× 1.19
Iona Gaels under 65.5 88.3% 83.9% 59.8% 1.40× 1.19
Bucknell Bison under 65.5 86.9% 83.9% 44.7% 1.88× 1.19
Iona Gaels under 62.5 80.6% 80.7% 51.0% 1.58× 1.24
Bucknell Bison over 48.5 77.9% 75.1% 93.3% 0.80× 1.33
Bucknell Bison under 62.5 78.8% 75.1% 35.7% 2.10× 1.33
Iona Gaels over 48.5 77.1% 75.1% 86.7% 0.87× 1.33
Iona Gaels under 60.5 73.9% 70.7% 44.4% 1.59× 1.41
Bucknell Bison under 60.5 72.0% 70.7% 30.5% 2.32× 1.41
Bucknell Bison over 50.5 70.2% 70.7% 90.8% 0.78× 1.41
Iona Gaels over 50.5 69.1% 66.4% 83.1% 0.80× 1.51
Iona Gaels under 58.5 66.2% 66.4% 37.9% 1.75× 1.51
Bucknell Bison under 58.5 64.3% 61.2% 25.3% 2.42× 1.63
Bucknell Bison over 52.5 61.8% 61.2% 87.7% 0.70× 1.63
Iona Gaels over 52.5 60.3% 61.2% 78.5% 0.78× 1.63
Iona Gaels under 56.5 57.7% 57.1% 32.0% 1.79× 1.75
Bucknell Bison under 56.5 55.8% 57.1% 20.5% 2.79× 1.75
Bucknell Bison over 54.5 53.0% 52.3% 83.8% 0.62× 1.91
Bucknell Bison under 55.5 51.5% 52.3% 18.5% 2.83× 1.91
Iona Gaels over 54.5 51.3% 52.3% 73.5% 0.71× 1.91
Iona Gaels under 55.5 53.3% 52.3% 29.2% 1.79× 1.91
Bucknell Bison under 54.5 47.0% 47.7% 16.2% 2.95× 2.09
Bucknell Bison over 55.5 48.5% 47.7% 81.6% 0.59× 2.09
Iona Gaels under 54.5 48.7% 47.7% 26.5% 1.80× 2.09
Iona Gaels over 55.5 46.7% 47.7% 70.8% 0.67× 2.09
Bucknell Bison over 56.5 44.2% 42.9% 79.5% 0.54× 2.33
Iona Gaels over 56.5 42.3% 42.9% 68.0% 0.63× 2.33
Bucknell Bison under 52.5 38.2% 38.8% 12.3% 3.14× 2.58
Iona Gaels under 52.5 39.7% 38.8% 21.5% 1.80× 2.58
Bucknell Bison over 58.5 35.7% 38.8% 74.7% 0.52× 2.58
Iona Gaels over 58.5 33.8% 33.6% 62.1% 0.54× 2.98
Iona Gaels under 50.5 30.9% 33.6% 16.9% 1.99× 2.98
Bucknell Bison under 50.5 29.8% 29.3% 9.2% 3.19× 3.42
Bucknell Bison over 60.5 28.0% 29.3% 69.5% 0.42× 3.42
Iona Gaels over 60.5 26.1% 29.3% 55.6% 0.53× 3.42
Iona Gaels under 48.5 22.9% 24.9% 13.3% 1.87× 4.02
Bucknell Bison under 48.5 22.1% 24.9% 6.7% 3.74× 4.02
Bucknell Bison over 62.5 21.2% 24.9% 64.3% 0.39× 4.02
Iona Gaels over 62.5 19.4% 19.3% 49.0% 0.39× 5.18
Bucknell Bison over 65.5 13.1% 16.1% 55.3% 0.29× 6.21
Bucknell Bison under 45.5 12.3% 16.1% 4.0% 4.02× 6.21
Iona Gaels under 45.5 12.7% 16.1% 8.7% 1.86× 6.21
Iona Gaels over 65.5 11.7% 16.1% 40.2% 0.40× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 91.5 points 94.2% 88.8% 98.9% 0.90× 1.13
Under 131.5 points 93.3% 88.8% 53.9% 1.65× 1.13
Under 126.5 points 87.6% 85.0% 42.6% 1.99× 1.18
Over 96.5 points 86.3% 85.0% 97.4% 0.87× 1.18
Under 121.5 points 79.2% 75.6% 32.3% 2.34× 1.32
Over 101.5 points 74.6% 70.8% 94.8% 0.75× 1.41
Under 118.5 points 72.7% 70.8% 26.4% 2.68× 1.41
Under 116.5 points 67.8% 65.9% 22.8% 2.89× 1.52
Over 104.5 points 66.5% 65.9% 92.9% 0.71× 1.52
Under 114.5 points 62.5% 61.5% 19.6% 3.14× 1.63
Over 106.5 points 60.7% 61.5% 91.0% 0.68× 1.63
Under 112.5 points 56.9% 56.5% 16.4% 3.45× 1.77
Over 108.5 points 54.8% 52.3% 88.9% 0.59× 1.91
Under 111.5 points 54.1% 52.3% 14.9% 3.50× 1.91
Under 110.5 points 51.1% 52.3% 13.6% 3.86× 1.91
Over 110.5 points 48.9% 47.7% 86.4% 0.55× 2.10
Over 111.5 points 45.9% 47.7% 85.1% 0.56× 2.10
Under 108.5 points 45.2% 47.7% 11.1% 4.30× 2.10
Over 112.5 points 43.1% 43.5% 83.6% 0.52× 2.30
Under 106.5 points 39.3% 38.5% 9.0% 4.29× 2.60
Over 114.5 points 37.5% 38.5% 80.4% 0.48× 2.60
Under 104.5 points 33.5% 34.1% 7.1% 4.78× 2.93
Over 116.5 points 32.2% 34.1% 77.2% 0.44× 2.93
Over 118.5 points 27.4% 29.2% 73.6% 0.40× 3.43
Under 101.5 points 25.4% 29.2% 5.2% 5.63× 3.43
Over 121.5 points 20.8% 24.4% 67.7% 0.36× 4.10
Under 96.5 points 13.7% 15.0% 2.6% 5.76× 6.68
Over 126.5 points 12.4% 15.0% 57.4% 0.26× 6.69
Over 131.5 points 6.7% 11.2% 46.1% 0.24× 8.97
Under 91.5 points 5.8% 11.2% 1.1% 9.81× 8.97
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bucknell Bison to win both halves 19.6% 18.9% 36.0% 0.52× 5.30
Iona Gaels to win both halves 17.9% 18.9% 20.4% 0.93× 5.30
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Bucknell Bison by 1-5 19.3% 16.8% 10.2% 1.64× 5.97
Iona Gaels by 1-5 18.9% 16.8% 10.2% 1.65× 5.97
Bucknell Bison by 6-10 15.1% 16.8% 12.9% 1.30× 5.97
Iona Gaels by 6-10 14.4% 12.3% 10.3% 1.20× 8.11
Bucknell Bison by 11-15 9.6% 7.5% 10.8% 0.69× 13.40
Iona Gaels by 11-15 8.8% 7.5% 7.6% 0.98× 13.40
Bucknell Bison by 16-20 4.8% 2.0% 8.0% 0.25× 49.29
Iona Gaels by 16-20 4.2% 2.0% 4.8% 0.43× 49.29
Bucknell Bison by 21-25 1.9% 2.0% 5.4% 0.38× 49.31
Iona Gaels by 21-25 1.6% 2.0% 2.7% 0.76× 49.31
Bucknell Bison by 26+ 0.8% 2.0% 12.6% 0.16× 49.32
Iona Gaels by 26+ 0.6% 2.0% 4.6% 0.44× 49.32
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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