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Charleston Southern Buccaneers v The Citadel Bulldogs — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 2 December 2026 · NCAAB · 2027

NCAAB results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Charleston Southern Buccaneers win
85.4%
Draw
0.0%
The Citadel Bulldogs win
14.6%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 84.37–73.43 84-73 0% 48% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charleston Southern Buccaneers to score 100+ 6.1% 8.8% 3.4% 2.55× 11.39
The Citadel Bulldogs to score 100+ 0.3% 0.4% 1.1% 0.33× 283.30
The Citadel Bulldogs to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1.95× 283.35
The Citadel Bulldogs to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 12.98× 283.36
The Citadel Bulldogs to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 38.95× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.87× 283.34
Charleston Southern Buccaneers to score 110+ 0.5% 0.4% 0.7% 0.52× 283.26
Charleston Southern Buccaneers to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.87× 283.35
Charleston Southern Buccaneers to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 19.47× 283.36
H1 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charleston Southern Buccaneers to win H1 71.0% 72.9% 57.9% 1.26× 1.37
Charleston Southern Buccaneers to win H1 71.0% 72.9% 57.9% 1.26× 1.37
The Citadel Bulldogs to win H1 25.2% 26.5% 38.2% 0.69× 3.77
The Citadel Bulldogs to win H1 25.2% 26.5% 38.2% 0.69× 3.77
H1 tied 3.8% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.86
H1 tied 3.8% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.86
H1 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 over 62.5 87.3% 87.7% 72.0% 1.22× 1.14
H1 under 86.5 86.8% 87.7% 94.0% 0.93× 1.14
H1 over 66.5 78.5% 77.4% 58.2% 1.33× 1.29
H1 under 82.5 77.7% 77.4% 88.9% 0.87× 1.29
H1 over 66.5 77.8% 77.4% 58.2% 1.33× 1.29
H1 under 82.5 77.0% 77.4% 88.9% 0.87× 1.29
H1 over 69.5 69.1% 67.4% 46.9% 1.44× 1.48
H1 under 79.5 68.2% 67.4% 83.1% 0.81× 1.48
H1 over 69.5 68.5% 67.4% 46.9% 1.44× 1.48
H1 under 79.5 67.6% 67.4% 83.1% 0.81× 1.48
H1 over 71.5 61.9% 62.7% 40.0% 1.57× 1.59
H1 under 77.5 61.0% 62.7% 78.3% 0.80× 1.59
H1 over 71.5 61.6% 62.7% 40.0% 1.57× 1.59
H1 under 77.5 60.6% 62.7% 78.3% 0.80× 1.59
H1 over 73.5 54.4% 52.6% 33.4% 1.58× 1.90
H1 over 73.5 54.2% 52.6% 33.4% 1.58× 1.90
H1 under 75.5 53.4% 52.6% 72.8% 0.72× 1.90
H1 under 75.5 53.3% 52.6% 72.8% 0.72× 1.90
H1 over 74.5 50.5% 52.6% 30.4% 1.73× 1.90
H1 over 74.5 50.5% 52.6% 30.4% 1.73× 1.90
H1 under 74.5 49.5% 47.4% 69.6% 0.68× 2.11
H1 under 74.5 49.5% 47.4% 69.6% 0.68× 2.11
H1 over 75.5 46.6% 47.4% 27.2% 1.74× 2.11
H1 over 75.5 46.7% 47.4% 27.2% 1.74× 2.11
H1 under 73.5 45.6% 47.4% 66.6% 0.71× 2.11
H1 under 73.5 45.8% 47.4% 66.6% 0.71× 2.11
H1 over 77.5 39.4% 37.3% 21.7% 1.72× 2.68
H1 under 71.5 38.1% 37.3% 60.0% 0.62× 2.68
H1 over 77.5 39.0% 37.3% 21.7% 1.72× 2.68
H1 under 71.5 38.4% 37.3% 60.0% 0.62× 2.68
H1 over 79.5 32.4% 32.6% 16.9% 1.93× 3.07
H1 under 69.5 30.9% 32.6% 53.1% 0.61× 3.07
H1 over 79.5 31.8% 32.6% 16.9% 1.93× 3.07
H1 under 69.5 31.5% 32.6% 53.1% 0.61× 3.07
H1 over 82.5 22.3% 22.6% 11.1% 2.03× 4.43
H1 under 66.5 22.2% 22.6% 41.8% 0.54× 4.43
H1 over 82.5 23.0% 22.6% 11.1% 2.03× 4.43
H1 under 66.5 21.5% 22.6% 41.8% 0.54× 4.43
H1 over 86.5 13.2% 12.3% 6.0% 2.04× 8.14
H1 under 62.5 12.7% 12.3% 28.0% 0.44× 8.14
H2 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charleston Southern Buccaneers to win H2 72.6% 67.6% 56.9% 1.19× 1.48
Charleston Southern Buccaneers to win H2 72.5% 67.6% 57.5% 1.18× 1.48
The Citadel Bulldogs to win H2 23.9% 26.9% 38.5% 0.70× 3.72
The Citadel Bulldogs to win H2 23.9% 26.9% 38.9% 0.69× 3.72
H2 tied 3.6% 3.9% 4.2% 0.95× 25.36
H2 tied 3.6% 3.9% 4.1% 0.97× 25.36
H2 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 95.5 86.3% 85.2% 90.6% 0.94× 1.17
H2 over 71.5 85.0% 85.2% 68.8% 1.24× 1.17
H2 under 91.5 77.6% 75.8% 88.7% 0.85× 1.32
H2 under 91.5 77.0% 75.8% 85.5% 0.89× 1.32
H2 over 75.5 75.8% 75.8% 53.4% 1.42× 1.32
H2 over 75.5 75.2% 75.8% 56.4% 1.34× 1.32
H2 under 88.5 68.6% 66.4% 83.3% 0.80× 1.51
H2 under 88.5 68.1% 66.4% 79.8% 0.83× 1.51
H2 over 78.5 66.5% 66.4% 43.6% 1.52× 1.51
H2 over 78.5 66.1% 66.4% 47.0% 1.41× 1.51
H2 under 86.5 61.9% 61.6% 79.3% 0.78× 1.62
H2 under 86.5 61.6% 61.6% 75.7% 0.81× 1.62
H2 over 80.5 59.7% 57.3% 37.1% 1.54× 1.74
H2 over 80.5 59.4% 57.3% 40.8% 1.41× 1.74
H2 under 84.5 54.8% 52.4% 74.1% 0.71× 1.91
H2 under 84.5 54.6% 52.4% 70.5% 0.74× 1.91
H2 over 82.5 52.5% 52.4% 31.1% 1.69× 1.91
H2 over 82.5 52.4% 52.4% 34.7% 1.51× 1.91
H2 under 83.5 51.2% 52.4% 71.6% 0.73× 1.91
H2 under 83.5 51.1% 52.4% 68.0% 0.77× 1.91
H2 over 83.5 48.8% 47.6% 28.4% 1.68× 2.10
H2 over 83.5 48.9% 47.6% 32.0% 1.49× 2.10
H2 under 82.5 47.5% 47.6% 68.9% 0.69× 2.10
H2 under 82.5 47.6% 47.6% 65.3% 0.73× 2.10
H2 over 84.5 45.2% 47.6% 25.9% 1.84× 2.10
H2 over 84.5 45.4% 47.6% 29.5% 1.62× 2.10
H2 under 80.5 40.3% 42.7% 62.9% 0.68× 2.35
H2 under 80.5 40.6% 42.7% 59.2% 0.72× 2.35
H2 over 86.5 38.1% 38.4% 20.7% 1.85× 2.61
H2 over 86.5 38.4% 38.4% 24.3% 1.58× 2.61
H2 under 78.5 33.5% 33.6% 56.4% 0.60× 2.97
H2 under 78.5 33.9% 33.6% 53.0% 0.64× 2.97
H2 over 88.5 31.9% 33.6% 20.2% 1.66× 2.97
H2 over 88.5 31.4% 33.6% 16.7% 2.01× 2.97
H2 under 75.5 24.2% 24.2% 46.6% 0.52× 4.13
H2 under 75.5 24.8% 24.2% 43.6% 0.56× 4.13
H2 over 91.5 22.4% 24.2% 11.3% 2.15× 4.13
H2 over 91.5 23.0% 24.2% 14.5% 1.68× 4.13
H2 under 71.5 15.0% 14.8% 31.2% 0.47× 6.76
H2 over 95.5 13.7% 14.8% 9.4% 1.58× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charleston Southern Buccaneers leading at half time 71.0% 73.4% 57.9% 1.27× 1.36
The Citadel Bulldogs leading at half time 25.2% 26.5% 38.2% 0.69× 3.78
Level at half time 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% 0.97× 26.41
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charleston Southern Buccaneers +16.5 99.5% 97.4% 94.0% 1.04× 1.03
Charleston Southern Buccaneers +18.5 99.7% 97.4% 95.4% 1.02× 1.03
Charleston Southern Buccaneers +20.5 99.8% 97.4% 96.5% 1.01× 1.03
Charleston Southern Buccaneers +7.5 95.6% 97.4% 81.0% 1.20× 1.03
Charleston Southern Buccaneers +8.5 96.4% 97.4% 83.3% 1.17× 1.03
Charleston Southern Buccaneers +9.5 97.1% 97.4% 85.3% 1.14× 1.03
Charleston Southern Buccaneers +10.5 97.7% 97.4% 87.2% 1.12× 1.03
Charleston Southern Buccaneers +12.5 98.5% 97.4% 89.9% 1.08× 1.03
Charleston Southern Buccaneers +14.5 99.1% 97.4% 92.2% 1.06× 1.03
Charleston Southern Buccaneers +6.5 94.7% 91.1% 78.8% 1.16× 1.10
Charleston Southern Buccaneers +4.5 92.3% 91.1% 73.7% 1.24× 1.10
Charleston Southern Buccaneers +5.5 93.6% 91.1% 76.4% 1.19× 1.10
Charleston Southern Buccaneers +3.5 90.9% 91.1% 70.8% 1.29× 1.10
Charleston Southern Buccaneers +2.5 89.2% 85.9% 68.0% 1.26× 1.16
Charleston Southern Buccaneers +1.5 87.4% 85.9% 65.4% 1.31× 1.16
Charleston Southern Buccaneers −1.5 82.9% 81.1% 60.8% 1.33× 1.23
The Citadel Bulldogs +20.5 81.0% 81.1% 86.5% 0.94× 1.23
Charleston Southern Buccaneers −2.5 80.2% 81.1% 57.7% 1.41× 1.23
Charleston Southern Buccaneers −3.5 77.3% 76.5% 54.1% 1.41× 1.31
The Citadel Bulldogs +18.5 75.4% 76.5% 83.9% 0.91× 1.31
Charleston Southern Buccaneers −4.5 74.2% 71.6% 50.7% 1.41× 1.40
Charleston Southern Buccaneers −5.5 70.9% 71.6% 47.0% 1.52× 1.40
The Citadel Bulldogs +16.5 69.1% 66.7% 80.7% 0.83× 1.50
Charleston Southern Buccaneers −6.5 67.5% 66.7% 44.3% 1.51× 1.50
Charleston Southern Buccaneers −7.5 64.0% 61.9% 41.3% 1.50× 1.62
The Citadel Bulldogs +14.5 62.2% 61.9% 77.2% 0.80× 1.62
Charleston Southern Buccaneers −8.5 60.3% 61.9% 38.5% 1.61× 1.62
Charleston Southern Buccaneers −9.5 56.6% 57.1% 35.5% 1.61× 1.75
The Citadel Bulldogs +12.5 54.8% 52.4% 72.4% 0.72× 1.91
Charleston Southern Buccaneers −10.5 52.8% 52.4% 32.6% 1.61× 1.91
The Citadel Bulldogs +10.5 47.2% 47.6% 67.4% 0.71× 2.10
Charleston Southern Buccaneers −12.5 45.2% 47.6% 27.6% 1.72× 2.10
The Citadel Bulldogs +9.5 43.4% 42.9% 64.5% 0.67× 2.33
The Citadel Bulldogs +8.5 39.7% 38.1% 61.5% 0.62× 2.63
Charleston Southern Buccaneers −14.5 37.8% 38.1% 22.8% 1.67× 2.63
The Citadel Bulldogs +7.5 36.0% 38.1% 58.7% 0.65× 2.63
The Citadel Bulldogs +6.5 32.5% 33.3% 55.7% 0.60× 3.01
Charleston Southern Buccaneers −16.5 30.9% 33.3% 19.3% 1.72× 3.01
The Citadel Bulldogs +5.5 29.1% 28.4% 53.0% 0.54× 3.53
The Citadel Bulldogs +4.5 25.8% 28.4% 49.3% 0.57× 3.53
Charleston Southern Buccaneers −18.5 24.6% 23.5% 16.1% 1.46× 4.25
The Citadel Bulldogs +3.5 22.7% 23.5% 45.9% 0.51× 4.25
The Citadel Bulldogs +2.5 19.8% 18.9% 42.3% 0.45× 5.29
Charleston Southern Buccaneers −20.5 19.1% 18.9% 13.5% 1.40× 5.29
The Citadel Bulldogs +1.5 17.1% 18.9% 39.2% 0.48× 5.29
The Citadel Bulldogs −1.5 12.6% 14.1% 34.6% 0.41× 7.09
The Citadel Bulldogs −2.5 10.8% 14.1% 32.0% 0.44× 7.09
The Citadel Bulldogs −3.5 9.1% 8.9% 29.3% 0.30× 11.25
The Citadel Bulldogs −4.5 7.7% 8.9% 26.3% 0.34× 11.25
The Citadel Bulldogs −5.5 6.4% 8.9% 23.6% 0.38× 11.25
The Citadel Bulldogs −6.5 5.3% 8.9% 21.2% 0.42× 11.25
The Citadel Bulldogs −7.5 4.4% 2.6% 19.0% 0.14× 38.72
The Citadel Bulldogs −8.5 3.6% 2.6% 16.7% 0.16× 38.73
The Citadel Bulldogs −9.5 2.9% 2.6% 14.7% 0.18× 38.73
The Citadel Bulldogs −10.5 2.3% 2.6% 12.8% 0.20× 38.73
The Citadel Bulldogs −12.5 1.5% 2.6% 10.1% 0.26× 38.73
The Citadel Bulldogs −14.5 0.9% 2.6% 7.8% 0.33× 38.74
The Citadel Bulldogs −16.5 0.5% 2.6% 6.0% 0.43× 38.74
The Citadel Bulldogs −18.5 0.3% 2.6% 4.6% 0.57× 38.74
The Citadel Bulldogs −20.5 0.2% 2.6% 3.5% 0.75× 38.74
Highest scoring half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 79.2% 71.6% 72.5% 0.99× 1.40
H2 highest scoring 80.7% 71.5% 70.4% 1.02× 1.40
H1 highest scoring 19.3% 28.5% 29.6% 0.96× 3.51
1st half highest scoring 20.8% 28.4% 27.5% 1.03× 3.53
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charleston Southern Buccaneers at HT / Charleston Southern Buccaneers at FT 66.2% 68.2% 48.6% 1.40× 1.47
The Citadel Bulldogs at HT / Charleston Southern Buccaneers at FT 16.1% 15.5% 12.4% 1.25× 6.47
The Citadel Bulldogs at HT / The Citadel Bulldogs at FT 9.1% 8.3% 25.8% 0.32× 12.08
Charleston Southern Buccaneers at HT / The Citadel Bulldogs at FT 4.8% 2.1% 9.3% 0.22× 47.71
Level at HT / Charleston Southern Buccaneers at FT 3.1% 2.1% 2.3% 0.92× 47.74
Level at HT / The Citadel Bulldogs at FT 0.7% 2.1% 1.6% 1.28× 47.78
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charleston Southern Buccaneers to win 85.4% 85.5% 63.2% 1.35× 1.17
The Citadel Bulldogs to win 14.6% 14.5% 36.8% 0.39× 6.89
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
The Citadel Bulldogs even 50.0% 50.5% 50.4% 1.00× 1.98
Total points odd 51.1% 50.5% 51.6% 0.98× 1.98
Charleston Southern Buccaneers even 50.0% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
The Citadel Bulldogs odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.6% 1.00× 2.02
Total points even 48.9% 49.5% 48.4% 1.02× 2.02
Charleston Southern Buccaneers odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 94.2% 94.0% 94.2% 1.00× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 5.8% 6.0% 5.8% 1.04× 16.66
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
The Citadel Bulldogs under 83.5 85.7% 83.9% 85.3% 0.98× 1.19
Charleston Southern Buccaneers over 74.5 84.8% 80.7% 54.1% 1.49× 1.24
Charleston Southern Buccaneers under 94.5 84.8% 80.7% 93.1% 0.87× 1.24
The Citadel Bulldogs over 63.5 84.9% 80.7% 73.9% 1.09× 1.24
The Citadel Bulldogs under 80.5 77.5% 75.1% 78.8% 0.95× 1.33
Charleston Southern Buccaneers over 77.5 76.4% 75.1% 44.6% 1.68× 1.33
Charleston Southern Buccaneers under 91.5 76.4% 75.1% 89.7% 0.84× 1.33
The Citadel Bulldogs over 66.5 76.3% 75.1% 64.7% 1.16× 1.33
The Citadel Bulldogs under 78.5 70.7% 70.7% 73.7% 0.96× 1.41
Charleston Southern Buccaneers over 79.5 69.7% 66.4% 38.4% 1.73× 1.51
Charleston Southern Buccaneers under 89.5 69.6% 66.4% 86.5% 0.77× 1.51
The Citadel Bulldogs over 68.5 69.3% 66.4% 58.4% 1.14× 1.51
The Citadel Bulldogs under 76.5 63.1% 61.2% 67.9% 0.90× 1.63
Charleston Southern Buccaneers over 81.5 62.2% 61.2% 32.1% 1.91× 1.63
Charleston Southern Buccaneers under 87.5 62.1% 61.2% 82.8% 0.74× 1.63
The Citadel Bulldogs over 70.5 61.6% 61.2% 51.4% 1.19× 1.63
The Citadel Bulldogs under 74.5 55.0% 57.1% 61.7% 0.93× 1.75
Charleston Southern Buccaneers over 83.5 54.2% 52.3% 26.5% 1.97× 1.91
Charleston Southern Buccaneers under 85.5 54.0% 52.3% 78.6% 0.67× 1.91
The Citadel Bulldogs over 72.5 53.4% 52.3% 44.7% 1.17× 1.91
The Citadel Bulldogs under 73.5 50.8% 52.3% 58.3% 0.90× 1.91
Charleston Southern Buccaneers over 84.5 50.1% 52.3% 23.9% 2.19× 1.91
The Citadel Bulldogs over 73.5 49.2% 47.7% 41.7% 1.15× 2.09
Charleston Southern Buccaneers under 84.5 49.9% 47.7% 76.1% 0.63× 2.09
The Citadel Bulldogs under 72.5 46.6% 47.7% 55.3% 0.86× 2.09
Charleston Southern Buccaneers under 83.5 45.8% 47.7% 73.5% 0.65× 2.09
Charleston Southern Buccaneers over 85.5 46.0% 47.7% 21.4% 2.23× 2.09
The Citadel Bulldogs over 74.5 45.0% 42.9% 38.3% 1.12× 2.33
The Citadel Bulldogs under 70.5 38.4% 38.8% 48.7% 0.80× 2.58
The Citadel Bulldogs over 76.5 36.9% 38.8% 32.1% 1.21× 2.58
Charleston Southern Buccaneers under 81.5 37.8% 38.8% 67.9% 0.57× 2.58
Charleston Southern Buccaneers over 87.5 37.9% 38.8% 17.2% 2.26× 2.58
Charleston Southern Buccaneers under 79.5 30.3% 33.6% 61.6% 0.55× 2.98
Charleston Southern Buccaneers over 89.5 30.4% 33.6% 13.5% 2.49× 2.98
The Citadel Bulldogs under 68.5 30.7% 33.6% 41.6% 0.81× 2.98
The Citadel Bulldogs over 78.5 29.3% 29.3% 26.3% 1.11× 3.42
The Citadel Bulldogs over 80.5 22.5% 24.9% 21.2% 1.17× 4.02
Charleston Southern Buccaneers under 77.5 23.6% 24.9% 55.4% 0.45× 4.02
Charleston Southern Buccaneers over 91.5 23.6% 24.9% 10.3% 2.41× 4.02
The Citadel Bulldogs under 66.5 23.7% 24.9% 35.3% 0.71× 4.02
Charleston Southern Buccaneers under 74.5 15.2% 19.3% 45.9% 0.42× 5.18
Charleston Southern Buccaneers over 94.5 15.2% 19.3% 6.9% 2.81× 5.18
The Citadel Bulldogs under 63.5 15.1% 19.3% 26.1% 0.74× 5.18
The Citadel Bulldogs over 83.5 14.3% 16.1% 14.7% 1.10× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 178.5 points 90.2% 88.8% 94.2% 0.94× 1.13
Over 138.5 points 88.6% 85.0% 67.0% 1.27× 1.18
Under 173.5 points 83.6% 80.6% 91.2% 0.88× 1.24
Over 143.5 points 81.4% 80.6% 56.3% 1.43× 1.24
Under 168.5 points 74.7% 70.8% 86.7% 0.82× 1.41
Over 148.5 points 72.0% 70.8% 45.7% 1.55× 1.41
Under 165.5 points 68.5% 65.9% 83.4% 0.79× 1.52
Over 151.5 points 65.3% 65.9% 39.4% 1.67× 1.52
Under 163.5 points 63.9% 61.5% 80.9% 0.76× 1.63
Over 153.5 points 60.6% 61.5% 35.4% 1.74× 1.63
Under 161.5 points 59.1% 56.5% 77.9% 0.73× 1.77
Over 155.5 points 55.7% 56.5% 31.9% 1.77× 1.77
Under 159.5 points 54.2% 52.3% 75.0% 0.70× 1.91
Under 158.5 points 51.7% 52.3% 73.3% 0.71× 1.91
Over 157.5 points 50.8% 52.3% 28.4% 1.84× 1.91
Under 157.5 points 49.2% 47.7% 71.6% 0.67× 2.10
Over 158.5 points 48.3% 47.7% 26.7% 1.78× 2.10
Over 159.5 points 45.8% 47.7% 25.0% 1.91× 2.10
Under 155.5 points 44.3% 43.5% 68.1% 0.64× 2.30
Over 161.5 points 40.9% 43.5% 22.1% 1.97× 2.30
Under 153.5 points 39.4% 38.5% 64.6% 0.60× 2.60
Over 163.5 points 36.1% 38.5% 19.1% 2.02× 2.60
Under 151.5 points 34.7% 34.1% 60.6% 0.56× 2.93
Over 165.5 points 31.5% 34.1% 16.6% 2.05× 2.93
Under 148.5 points 28.0% 29.2% 54.3% 0.54× 3.43
Over 168.5 points 25.3% 29.2% 13.3% 2.19× 3.43
Under 143.5 points 18.6% 19.4% 43.7% 0.44× 5.15
Over 173.5 points 16.4% 19.4% 8.8% 2.20× 5.15
Under 138.5 points 11.4% 15.0% 33.0% 0.45× 6.69
Over 178.5 points 9.8% 11.2% 5.8% 1.92× 8.96
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charleston Southern Buccaneers to win both halves 48.7% 45.9% 33.2% 1.38× 2.18
The Citadel Bulldogs to win both halves 3.8% 3.0% 14.5% 0.20× 33.61
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charleston Southern Buccaneers by 6-10 18.2% 16.8% 14.4% 1.16× 5.97
Charleston Southern Buccaneers by 11-15 18.5% 16.8% 11.6% 1.45× 5.97
Charleston Southern Buccaneers by 16-20 15.2% 16.8% 7.6% 2.20× 5.97
Charleston Southern Buccaneers by 1-5 14.4% 12.3% 16.2% 0.76× 8.11
Charleston Southern Buccaneers by 21-25 10.1% 12.3% 5.6% 2.22× 8.11
The Citadel Bulldogs by 1-5 8.2% 7.5% 13.2% 0.57× 13.40
Charleston Southern Buccaneers by 26+ 8.9% 7.5% 7.9% 0.94× 13.40
The Citadel Bulldogs by 6-10 4.1% 2.0% 10.8% 0.19× 49.29
The Citadel Bulldogs by 11-15 1.6% 2.0% 6.1% 0.34× 49.31
The Citadel Bulldogs by 16-20 0.5% 2.0% 3.3% 0.61× 49.32
The Citadel Bulldogs by 21-25 0.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.06× 49.33
The Citadel Bulldogs by 26+ 0.0% 2.0% 1.6% 1.30× 49.33
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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