Charlotte Hornets v Miami Heat — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 24 October 2026 · NBA · 2027

NBA results-only Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 03:45 UTC

Charlotte Hornets

22:00 UTC

Miami Heat

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Charlotte Hornets win

64.2%

Draw

0.0%

Miami Heat win

35.8%

64036

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
nba-normal	64036	120.31–115.17	120-115 0%	50%	0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte Hornets to score 100+	96.1%	94.9%	89.3%	1.06×	1.05
Miami Heat to score 100+	90.9%	90.3%	85.9%	1.05×	1.11
Both sides to score 100+	87.7%	85.0%	77.5%	1.10×	1.18
Charlotte Hornets to score 110+	82.1%	79.2%	67.0%	1.18×	1.26
Miami Heat to score 110+	68.3%	63.8%	60.9%	1.05×	1.57
Charlotte Hornets to score 120+	53.0%	52.4%	36.5%	1.43×	1.91
Miami Heat to score 120+	35.3%	35.9%	29.7%	1.21×	2.78
Charlotte Hornets to score 130+	22.0%	22.0%	12.8%	1.71×	4.55
Miami Heat to score 130+	11.0%	13.8%	10.0%	1.38×	7.25

H1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte Hornets to win H1	57.6%	57.3%	52.8%	1.09×	1.75
Miami Heat to win H1	39.0%	37.8%	44.1%	0.86×	2.64
H1 tied	3.4%	3.9%	3.1%	1.25×	25.86

H1 total 34

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H1 over 105.5	82.0%	83.2%	75.8%	1.10×	1.20
H1 under 129.5	81.9%	83.2%	88.1%	0.94×	1.20
H1 under 131.5	83.5%	82.5%	91.0%	0.91×	1.21
H1 over 107.5	80.9%	82.5%	70.4%	1.17×	1.21
H1 over 109.5	72.9%	74.0%	65.0%	1.14×	1.35
H1 under 125.5	72.8%	74.0%	80.7%	0.92×	1.35
H1 under 127.5	74.7%	73.5%	84.8%	0.87×	1.36
H1 over 111.5	71.4%	73.5%	59.0%	1.25×	1.36
H1 under 124.5	66.8%	67.4%	78.4%	0.86×	1.48
H1 over 112.5	64.9%	63.3%	55.8%	1.13×	1.58
H1 over 114.5	63.1%	62.7%	49.6%	1.26×	1.59
H1 under 122.5	61.1%	62.7%	74.0%	0.85×	1.59
H1 over 116.5	57.2%	58.2%	43.4%	1.34×	1.72
H1 under 120.5	55.1%	58.2%	68.4%	0.85×	1.72
H1 under 119.5	52.0%	52.6%	65.9%	0.80×	1.90
H1 over 118.5	51.1%	52.6%	37.1%	1.42×	1.90
H1 over 117.5	50.1%	52.5%	40.4%	1.30×	1.90
H1 under 117.5	49.9%	47.5%	59.6%	0.80×	2.11
H1 under 118.5	48.9%	47.4%	62.9%	0.75×	2.11
H1 over 119.5	48.0%	47.4%	34.1%	1.39×	2.11
H1 over 120.5	44.9%	41.8%	31.6%	1.32×	2.39
H1 under 116.5	42.8%	41.8%	56.6%	0.74×	2.39
H1 over 122.5	38.9%	37.3%	26.0%	1.43×	2.68
H1 under 114.5	36.9%	37.3%	50.4%	0.74×	2.68
H1 under 112.5	35.1%	36.7%	44.2%	0.83×	2.72
H1 over 124.5	33.2%	32.6%	21.7%	1.51×	3.07
H1 under 111.5	28.6%	26.5%	41.0%	0.65×	3.77
H1 over 127.5	25.3%	26.5%	15.2%	1.75×	3.77
H1 over 125.5	27.2%	26.0%	19.3%	1.35×	3.84
H1 under 109.5	27.1%	26.0%	35.0%	0.74×	3.84
H1 under 107.5	19.1%	17.5%	29.6%	0.59×	5.72
H1 over 131.5	16.5%	17.5%	9.0%	1.93×	5.73
H1 over 129.5	18.1%	16.8%	11.9%	1.41×	5.96
H1 under 105.5	18.0%	16.8%	24.2%	0.69×	5.96

H2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte Hornets to win H2	57.5%	55.0%	51.6%	1.07×	1.82
Miami Heat to win H2	39.1%	41.2%	44.7%	0.92×	2.43
H2 tied	3.4%	3.9%	3.7%	1.06×	25.36

H2 total 40

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H2 over 104.5	82.7%	81.8%	73.9%	1.11×	1.22
H2 under 128.5	82.2%	81.8%	86.3%	0.95×	1.22
H2 under 127.5	82.5%	81.5%	84.9%	0.96×	1.23
H2 over 103.5	81.8%	81.5%	76.2%	1.07×	1.23
H2 under 123.5	73.5%	72.5%	76.9%	0.94×	1.38
H2 over 107.5	72.6%	72.5%	66.2%	1.09×	1.38
H2 over 108.5	73.6%	72.2%	63.8%	1.13×	1.39
H2 under 124.5	72.9%	72.2%	79.1%	0.91×	1.39
H2 over 111.5	65.5%	66.4%	55.3%	1.20×	1.51
H2 under 120.5	65.4%	64.4%	69.3%	0.93×	1.55
H2 over 110.5	64.5%	62.6%	58.1%	1.08×	1.60
H2 under 121.5	64.7%	61.6%	72.0%	0.86×	1.62
H2 under 118.5	59.6%	58.0%	63.6%	0.91×	1.72
H2 over 112.5	58.6%	58.0%	52.6%	1.10×	1.72
H2 over 113.5	59.6%	57.3%	49.9%	1.15×	1.74
H2 under 119.5	58.8%	57.3%	66.4%	0.86×	1.74
H2 over 115.5	53.5%	52.4%	44.6%	1.17×	1.91
H2 under 117.5	52.7%	52.4%	61.1%	0.86×	1.91
H2 over 116.5	50.4%	52.4%	41.9%	1.25×	1.91
H2 over 114.5	52.6%	52.0%	47.5%	1.10×	1.92
H2 under 114.5	47.4%	48.0%	52.5%	0.91×	2.09
H2 under 116.5	49.6%	47.6%	58.1%	0.82×	2.10
H2 over 117.5	47.3%	47.6%	38.9%	1.22×	2.10
H2 under 115.5	46.5%	47.6%	55.4%	0.86×	2.10
H2 over 119.5	41.2%	42.7%	33.6%	1.27×	2.34
H2 under 113.5	40.4%	42.7%	50.1%	0.85×	2.35
H2 under 112.5	41.4%	42.0%	47.4%	0.88×	2.38
H2 over 118.5	40.4%	42.0%	36.4%	1.15×	2.38
H2 over 121.5	35.3%	38.4%	28.0%	1.37×	2.61
H2 under 110.5	35.5%	37.4%	41.9%	0.89×	2.67
H2 over 120.5	34.6%	35.6%	30.7%	1.16×	2.81
H2 under 111.5	34.5%	33.6%	44.7%	0.75×	2.97
H2 over 124.5	27.1%	27.8%	20.9%	1.33×	3.59
H2 under 108.5	26.4%	27.8%	36.2%	0.77×	3.59
H2 under 107.5	27.4%	27.5%	33.8%	0.82×	3.63
H2 over 123.5	26.5%	27.5%	23.1%	1.19×	3.64
H2 under 103.5	18.2%	18.5%	23.8%	0.78×	5.41
H2 over 127.5	17.5%	18.5%	15.1%	1.22×	5.41
H2 over 128.5	17.8%	18.2%	13.7%	1.32×	5.50
H2 under 104.5	17.3%	18.2%	26.1%	0.70×	5.50

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte Hornets leading at half time	57.6%	56.9%	52.8%	1.08×	1.76
Miami Heat leading at half time	39.0%	37.9%	44.1%	0.86×	2.64
Level at half time	3.4%	3.8%	3.1%	1.22×	26.41

Handicap 60

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte Hornets +20.5	96.0%	97.4%	93.1%	1.05×	1.03
Charlotte Hornets +18.5	94.7%	91.1%	91.5%	1.00×	1.10
Charlotte Hornets +16.5	93.0%	91.1%	89.7%	1.02×	1.10
Charlotte Hornets +14.5	91.0%	91.1%	87.0%	1.05×	1.10
Charlotte Hornets +12.5	88.5%	85.9%	83.9%	1.02×	1.16
Charlotte Hornets +10.5	85.6%	85.9%	80.3%	1.07×	1.16
Miami Heat +20.5	85.2%	85.9%	89.1%	0.96×	1.16
Charlotte Hornets +9.5	83.9%	81.1%	78.1%	1.04×	1.23
Charlotte Hornets +8.5	82.2%	81.1%	75.7%	1.07×	1.23
Miami Heat +18.5	81.7%	81.1%	86.4%	0.94×	1.23
Charlotte Hornets +7.5	80.3%	81.1%	73.0%	1.11×	1.23
Charlotte Hornets +6.5	78.3%	76.5%	70.6%	1.08×	1.31
Miami Heat +16.5	77.8%	76.5%	83.5%	0.92×	1.31
Charlotte Hornets +5.5	76.2%	76.5%	68.0%	1.13×	1.31
Charlotte Hornets +4.5	74.0%	71.6%	65.7%	1.09×	1.40
Miami Heat +14.5	73.4%	71.6%	80.1%	0.89×	1.40
Charlotte Hornets +3.5	71.7%	71.6%	63.1%	1.14×	1.40
Charlotte Hornets +2.5	69.3%	66.7%	60.5%	1.10×	1.50
Miami Heat +12.5	68.6%	66.7%	76.0%	0.88×	1.50
Charlotte Hornets +1.5	66.8%	66.7%	57.9%	1.15×	1.50
Miami Heat +10.5	63.5%	61.9%	71.0%	0.87×	1.62
Charlotte Hornets −1.5	61.5%	61.9%	53.7%	1.15×	1.62
Miami Heat +9.5	60.8%	61.9%	68.7%	0.90×	1.62
Charlotte Hornets −2.5	58.7%	57.1%	50.9%	1.12×	1.75
Miami Heat +8.5	58.1%	57.1%	65.9%	0.87×	1.75
Charlotte Hornets −3.5	55.9%	57.1%	48.4%	1.18×	1.75
Miami Heat +7.5	55.3%	57.1%	63.0%	0.91×	1.75
Charlotte Hornets −4.5	53.1%	52.4%	46.0%	1.14×	1.91
Miami Heat +6.5	52.5%	52.4%	60.0%	0.87×	1.91
Charlotte Hornets −5.5	50.3%	52.4%	42.9%	1.22×	1.91
Miami Heat +5.5	49.7%	47.6%	57.1%	0.83×	2.10
Charlotte Hornets −6.5	47.5%	47.6%	40.0%	1.19×	2.10
Miami Heat +4.5	46.9%	47.6%	54.1%	0.88×	2.10
Miami Heat +3.5	44.1%	42.9%	51.6%	0.83×	2.33
Charlotte Hornets −7.5	44.7%	42.9%	37.0%	1.16×	2.33
Miami Heat +2.5	41.3%	42.9%	49.1%	0.88×	2.33
Charlotte Hornets −8.5	41.9%	42.9%	34.1%	1.26×	2.33
Charlotte Hornets −9.5	39.2%	38.1%	31.3%	1.22×	2.63
Miami Heat +1.5	38.5%	38.1%	46.3%	0.82×	2.63
Charlotte Hornets −10.5	36.5%	38.1%	29.0%	1.31×	2.63
Miami Heat −1.5	33.2%	33.3%	42.1%	0.79×	3.01
Charlotte Hornets −12.5	31.4%	33.3%	24.0%	1.38×	3.01
Miami Heat −2.5	30.7%	33.3%	39.5%	0.84×	3.01
Miami Heat −3.5	28.3%	28.4%	36.9%	0.77×	3.53
Charlotte Hornets −14.5	26.6%	28.4%	19.9%	1.43×	3.53
Miami Heat −4.5	26.0%	28.4%	34.3%	0.83×	3.53
Miami Heat −5.5	23.8%	23.5%	32.0%	0.73×	4.25
Miami Heat −6.5	21.7%	23.5%	29.4%	0.80×	4.25
Charlotte Hornets −16.5	22.2%	23.5%	16.5%	1.43×	4.25
Miami Heat −7.5	19.7%	18.9%	27.0%	0.70×	5.29
Charlotte Hornets −18.5	18.3%	18.9%	13.6%	1.39×	5.29
Miami Heat −8.5	17.8%	18.9%	24.3%	0.78×	5.29
Miami Heat −9.5	16.1%	18.9%	21.9%	0.86×	5.30
Miami Heat −10.5	14.4%	14.1%	19.7%	0.72×	7.09
Charlotte Hornets −20.5	14.8%	14.1%	10.9%	1.30×	7.09
Miami Heat −12.5	11.5%	14.1%	16.1%	0.87×	7.09
Miami Heat −14.5	9.0%	8.9%	13.0%	0.68×	11.25
Miami Heat −16.5	7.0%	8.9%	10.3%	0.86×	11.25
Miami Heat −18.5	5.3%	8.9%	8.5%	1.04×	11.25
Miami Heat −20.5	4.0%	2.6%	6.9%	0.37×	38.72

Highest scoring half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	56.8%	52.6%	53.5%	0.98×	1.90
2nd half highest scoring	43.2%	47.4%	46.5%	1.02×	2.11

Highest scoring quarter 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 highest scoring	28.4%	27.4%	29.2%	0.94×	3.65
Q3 highest scoring	28.1%	27.4%	27.5%	1.00×	3.65
Q2 highest scoring	26.6%	27.4%	26.3%	1.04×	3.65
Q4 highest scoring	17.0%	18.3%	17.0%	1.08×	5.46

HT/FT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte Hornets at HT / Charlotte Hornets at FT	47.7%	46.6%	40.8%	1.14×	2.15
Miami Heat at HT / Miami Heat at FT	24.6%	24.4%	30.9%	0.79×	4.09
Miami Heat at HT / Charlotte Hornets at FT	14.4%	12.2%	13.3%	0.92×	8.17
Charlotte Hornets at HT / Miami Heat at FT	9.9%	8.3%	12.0%	0.69×	12.08
Level at HT / Charlotte Hornets at FT	2.1%	2.1%	1.7%	1.22×	47.76
Level at HT / Miami Heat at FT	1.3%	2.1%	1.4%	1.49×	47.77

Moneyline 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte Hornets to win	64.2%	60.7%	55.7%	1.09×	1.65
Miami Heat to win	35.8%	39.3%	44.3%	0.89×	2.54

Odd/Even 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Total points odd	51.3%	50.5%	51.0%	0.99×	1.98
Miami Heat even	50.0%	50.5%	50.3%	1.00×	1.98
Charlotte Hornets even	50.0%	50.5%	49.7%	1.02×	1.98
Miami Heat odd	50.0%	49.5%	49.7%	1.00×	2.02
Charlotte Hornets odd	50.0%	49.5%	50.3%	0.98×	2.02
Total points even	48.7%	49.5%	49.0%	1.01×	2.02

Overtime 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No overtime	93.3%	94.0%	94.8%	0.99×	1.06
Match to go to overtime	6.7%	6.0%	5.2%	1.16×	16.65

Q1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte Hornets to win Q1	54.0%	52.6%	51.3%	1.03×	1.90
Miami Heat to win Q1	41.3%	42.9%	44.1%	0.97×	2.33
Q1 tied	4.7%	4.2%	4.6%	0.90×	23.94

Q1 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 over 51.5	82.9%	82.8%	76.0%	1.09×	1.21
Q1 under 67.5	82.4%	82.8%	88.8%	0.93×	1.21
Q1 over 54.5	72.5%	72.7%	63.3%	1.15×	1.38
Q1 under 64.5	71.9%	72.7%	80.1%	0.91×	1.38
Q1 over 56.5	64.1%	61.7%	54.6%	1.13×	1.62
Q1 under 62.5	63.5%	61.7%	72.9%	0.85×	1.62
Q1 over 58.5	55.0%	58.6%	44.3%	1.32×	1.71
Q1 under 60.5	54.3%	52.7%	64.5%	0.82×	1.90
Q1 over 59.5	50.4%	52.7%	40.0%	1.32×	1.90
Q1 under 59.5	49.6%	47.3%	60.0%	0.79×	2.11
Q1 over 60.5	45.7%	47.3%	35.5%	1.33×	2.11
Q1 under 58.5	45.0%	41.4%	55.7%	0.74×	2.42
Q1 over 62.5	36.5%	38.3%	27.1%	1.41×	2.61
Q1 under 56.5	35.9%	38.3%	45.4%	0.84×	2.61
Q1 over 64.5	28.1%	27.3%	19.9%	1.37×	3.66
Q1 under 54.5	27.5%	27.3%	36.7%	0.74×	3.66
Q1 over 67.5	17.6%	17.2%	11.2%	1.53×	5.83
Q1 under 51.5	17.1%	17.2%	24.0%	0.71×	5.83

Q2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte Hornets to win Q2	53.9%	51.4%	49.3%	1.04×	1.95
Miami Heat to win Q2	41.4%	43.9%	46.2%	0.95×	2.28
Q2 tied	4.7%	4.4%	4.5%	0.98×	22.88

Q2 total 32

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q2 over 50.5	82.7%	83.1%	78.1%	1.06×	1.20
Q2 under 66.5	82.1%	83.1%	86.5%	0.96×	1.20
Q2 under 67.5	83.2%	83.0%	88.7%	0.94×	1.21
Q2 over 51.5	81.8%	83.0%	74.2%	1.12×	1.21
Q2 over 53.5	72.4%	73.0%	65.8%	1.11×	1.37
Q2 under 63.5	71.5%	73.0%	77.5%	0.94×	1.37
Q2 under 64.5	73.0%	72.0%	80.9%	0.89×	1.39
Q2 over 54.5	71.2%	72.0%	61.1%	1.18×	1.39
Q2 over 55.5	64.1%	62.0%	56.3%	1.10×	1.61
Q2 under 61.5	63.2%	62.0%	70.4%	0.88×	1.61
Q2 under 62.5	64.7%	60.7%	74.4%	0.82×	1.65
Q2 over 56.5	62.7%	60.7%	51.7%	1.17×	1.65
Q2 under 60.5	55.7%	58.2%	65.7%	0.88×	1.72
Q2 over 57.5	55.1%	57.7%	47.3%	1.22×	1.73
Q2 over 58.5	53.6%	52.7%	42.7%	1.23×	1.90
Q2 under 59.5	51.1%	52.7%	61.9%	0.85×	1.90
Q2 over 59.5	48.9%	47.3%	38.1%	1.24×	2.11
Q2 under 58.5	46.4%	47.3%	57.3%	0.83×	2.11
Q2 under 57.5	44.9%	42.3%	52.7%	0.80×	2.37
Q2 over 60.5	44.3%	41.8%	34.3%	1.22×	2.39
Q2 under 56.5	37.3%	39.3%	48.3%	0.81×	2.55
Q2 over 62.5	35.3%	39.3%	25.6%	1.53×	2.55
Q2 over 61.5	36.8%	38.0%	29.6%	1.28×	2.63
Q2 under 55.5	35.9%	38.0%	43.7%	0.87×	2.63
Q2 under 54.5	28.8%	28.0%	38.9%	0.72×	3.57
Q2 over 64.5	27.0%	28.0%	19.1%	1.46×	3.57
Q2 over 63.5	28.5%	27.0%	22.5%	1.20×	3.71
Q2 under 53.5	27.6%	27.0%	34.2%	0.79×	3.71
Q2 under 51.5	18.2%	17.0%	25.8%	0.66×	5.88
Q2 over 67.5	16.8%	17.0%	11.3%	1.50×	5.88
Q2 over 66.5	17.9%	16.9%	13.5%	1.25×	5.93
Q2 under 50.5	17.3%	16.9%	21.9%	0.77×	5.93

Q3 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte Hornets to win Q3	54.0%	52.7%	50.9%	1.04×	1.90
Miami Heat to win Q3	41.4%	42.3%	44.3%	0.95×	2.37
Q3 tied	4.7%	4.3%	4.9%	0.88×	23.43

Q3 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q3 over 51.5	83.6%	82.3%	76.1%	1.08×	1.22
Q3 under 67.5	82.2%	82.3%	87.0%	0.95×	1.22
Q3 over 54.5	73.3%	71.8%	63.9%	1.12×	1.39
Q3 under 64.5	71.4%	71.8%	79.2%	0.91×	1.39
Q3 over 56.5	65.0%	67.8%	55.0%	1.23×	1.48
Q3 under 62.5	62.9%	61.9%	71.9%	0.86×	1.61
Q3 over 58.5	55.9%	58.4%	45.2%	1.29×	1.71
Q3 under 60.5	53.6%	52.3%	63.5%	0.82×	1.91
Q3 over 59.5	51.1%	52.3%	41.0%	1.28×	1.91
Q3 under 59.5	48.9%	47.7%	59.0%	0.81×	2.10
Q3 over 60.5	46.4%	47.7%	36.5%	1.31×	2.10
Q3 under 58.5	44.1%	41.6%	54.8%	0.76×	2.40
Q3 over 62.5	37.1%	38.1%	28.1%	1.35×	2.63
Q3 under 56.5	35.0%	32.2%	45.0%	0.72×	3.10
Q3 over 64.5	28.6%	28.2%	20.8%	1.35×	3.55
Q3 under 54.5	26.7%	28.2%	36.1%	0.78×	3.55
Q3 over 67.5	17.8%	17.7%	13.0%	1.36×	5.66
Q3 under 51.5	16.4%	17.7%	23.9%	0.74×	5.66

Q4 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte Hornets to win Q4	53.8%	51.4%	48.3%	1.06×	1.94
Miami Heat to win Q4	41.4%	43.1%	46.4%	0.93×	2.32
Q4 tied	4.8%	5.2%	5.3%	0.98×	19.28

Q4 total 32

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q4 under 65.5	83.9%	82.0%	88.4%	0.93×	1.22
Q4 over 49.5	80.3%	82.0%	72.3%	1.13×	1.22
Q4 under 64.5	82.8%	81.9%	86.3%	0.95×	1.22
Q4 over 48.5	81.3%	81.9%	75.5%	1.09×	1.22
Q4 under 61.5	72.6%	72.3%	77.5%	0.93×	1.38
Q4 over 51.5	70.7%	72.3%	64.7%	1.12×	1.38
Q4 under 62.5	74.1%	71.5%	80.4%	0.89×	1.40
Q4 over 52.5	69.4%	67.4%	60.4%	1.12×	1.48
Q4 under 60.5	66.1%	67.4%	74.2%	0.91×	1.48
Q4 under 59.5	64.5%	61.7%	70.2%	0.88×	1.62
Q4 over 53.5	62.4%	61.6%	55.7%	1.11×	1.62
Q4 over 54.5	60.9%	61.4%	51.4%	1.20×	1.63
Q4 under 58.5	57.4%	58.4%	66.2%	0.88×	1.71
Q4 under 57.5	52.8%	52.5%	61.9%	0.85×	1.91
Q4 over 56.5	51.8%	52.5%	42.8%	1.23×	1.91
Q4 over 55.5	53.5%	52.4%	47.1%	1.11×	1.91
Q4 under 55.5	46.5%	47.7%	52.9%	0.90×	2.10
Q4 under 56.5	48.2%	47.5%	57.2%	0.83×	2.11
Q4 over 57.5	47.2%	47.5%	38.1%	1.25×	2.11
Q4 over 58.5	42.6%	41.6%	33.8%	1.23×	2.40
Q4 under 54.5	39.1%	38.6%	48.6%	0.79×	2.59
Q4 under 53.5	37.6%	38.4%	44.3%	0.87×	2.61
Q4 over 59.5	35.5%	38.3%	29.8%	1.29×	2.61
Q4 over 60.5	33.9%	32.6%	25.8%	1.26×	3.07
Q4 under 52.5	30.6%	32.6%	39.6%	0.82×	3.07
Q4 over 62.5	25.9%	28.5%	19.6%	1.45×	3.51
Q4 under 51.5	29.3%	27.7%	35.3%	0.78×	3.61
Q4 over 61.5	27.4%	27.7%	22.5%	1.23×	3.61
Q4 under 48.5	18.7%	18.1%	24.5%	0.74×	5.53
Q4 over 64.5	17.2%	18.1%	13.7%	1.32×	5.53
Q4 under 49.5	19.7%	18.0%	27.7%	0.65×	5.56
Q4 over 65.5	16.1%	18.0%	11.6%	1.55×	5.56

Team total 70

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Miami Heat under 125.5	81.2%	80.7%	83.4%	0.97×	1.24
Charlotte Hornets under 130.5	80.4%	80.7%	88.6%	0.91×	1.24
Charlotte Hornets under 128.5	80.0%	78.3%	85.5%	0.92×	1.28
Miami Heat over 104.5	79.7%	78.3%	75.0%	1.04×	1.28
Miami Heat under 124.5	79.6%	78.3%	81.4%	0.96×	1.28
Charlotte Hornets over 108.5	79.1%	78.3%	69.9%	1.12×	1.28
Charlotte Hornets over 110.5	79.8%	75.1%	64.1%	1.17×	1.33
Miami Heat over 105.5	79.4%	75.1%	71.9%	1.05×	1.33
Miami Heat under 121.5	71.8%	71.8%	74.7%	0.96×	1.39
Miami Heat over 107.5	72.0%	71.8%	66.6%	1.08×	1.39
Charlotte Hornets over 111.5	71.4%	71.8%	61.1%	1.18×	1.39
Miami Heat under 122.5	73.6%	70.7%	77.4%	0.91×	1.41
Charlotte Hornets under 127.5	72.6%	70.7%	83.5%	0.85×	1.41
Charlotte Hornets over 113.5	72.0%	70.7%	54.3%	1.30×	1.41
Miami Heat over 108.5	71.3%	70.7%	64.0%	1.11×	1.41
Miami Heat over 109.5	66.1%	66.6%	60.9%	1.09×	1.50
Miami Heat under 119.5	66.0%	66.6%	70.3%	0.95×	1.50
Miami Heat under 120.5	67.8%	66.4%	72.7%	0.91×	1.51
Charlotte Hornets over 115.5	66.0%	66.4%	48.4%	1.37×	1.51
Charlotte Hornets under 125.5	66.7%	66.4%	79.1%	0.84×	1.51
Miami Heat over 110.5	65.2%	66.4%	57.9%	1.15×	1.51
Miami Heat under 118.5	61.4%	61.2%	67.4%	0.91×	1.63
Charlotte Hornets under 123.5	60.4%	61.2%	74.4%	0.82×	1.63
Miami Heat over 111.5	59.9%	57.9%	54.6%	1.06×	1.73
Miami Heat under 117.5	59.7%	57.9%	64.4%	0.90×	1.73
Charlotte Hornets over 117.5	59.7%	57.1%	42.2%	1.35×	1.75
Miami Heat over 112.5	58.7%	57.1%	51.5%	1.11×	1.75
Miami Heat under 116.5	54.8%	52.3%	61.5%	0.85×	1.91
Charlotte Hornets under 121.5	53.7%	52.3%	69.6%	0.75×	1.91
Miami Heat over 114.5	52.0%	52.3%	44.5%	1.18×	1.91
Miami Heat under 115.5	51.4%	52.3%	58.6%	0.89×	1.91
Charlotte Hornets over 119.5	53.0%	52.3%	36.5%	1.43×	1.91
Charlotte Hornets under 120.5	50.4%	52.3%	66.3%	0.79×	1.91
Miami Heat over 113.5	53.4%	52.2%	48.0%	1.09×	1.91
Charlotte Hornets under 118.5	50.5%	52.2%	60.3%	0.87×	1.91
Charlotte Hornets over 118.5	49.5%	47.8%	39.7%	1.20×	2.09
Miami Heat under 113.5	46.6%	47.8%	52.0%	0.92×	2.09
Charlotte Hornets over 120.5	49.6%	47.7%	33.7%	1.42×	2.09
Miami Heat under 114.5	48.0%	47.7%	55.5%	0.86×	2.09
Miami Heat over 115.5	48.6%	47.7%	41.4%	1.15×	2.09
Charlotte Hornets under 119.5	47.0%	47.7%	63.5%	0.75×	2.09
Miami Heat over 116.5	45.2%	47.7%	38.5%	1.24×	2.09
Charlotte Hornets over 121.5	46.3%	47.7%	30.4%	1.57×	2.09
Miami Heat under 112.5	41.3%	42.9%	48.5%	0.88×	2.33
Charlotte Hornets under 117.5	40.3%	42.9%	57.8%	0.74×	2.33
Miami Heat over 117.5	40.3%	42.1%	35.6%	1.18×	2.38
Miami Heat under 111.5	40.1%	42.1%	45.4%	0.93×	2.38
Miami Heat over 118.5	38.6%	38.8%	32.6%	1.19×	2.58
Charlotte Hornets over 123.5	39.6%	38.8%	25.6%	1.52×	2.58
Miami Heat under 110.5	34.8%	33.6%	42.1%	0.80×	2.98
Charlotte Hornets under 115.5	34.0%	33.6%	51.6%	0.65×	2.98
Charlotte Hornets over 125.5	33.3%	33.6%	20.9%	1.61×	2.98
Miami Heat over 120.5	32.2%	33.6%	27.3%	1.23×	2.98
Miami Heat over 119.5	34.0%	33.4%	29.7%	1.13×	2.99
Miami Heat under 109.5	33.9%	33.4%	39.1%	0.86×	2.99
Miami Heat under 108.5	28.7%	29.3%	36.0%	0.81×	3.42
Charlotte Hornets over 127.5	27.4%	29.3%	16.5%	1.78×	3.42
Charlotte Hornets under 113.5	28.0%	29.3%	45.7%	0.64×	3.42
Miami Heat over 122.5	26.4%	29.3%	22.6%	1.29×	3.42
Charlotte Hornets under 111.5	28.6%	28.2%	38.9%	0.72×	3.55
Miami Heat over 121.5	28.2%	28.2%	25.3%	1.11×	3.55
Miami Heat under 107.5	28.0%	28.2%	33.4%	0.84×	3.55
Charlotte Hornets under 110.5	20.2%	24.9%	35.9%	0.69×	4.02
Miami Heat under 105.5	20.6%	24.9%	28.1%	0.88×	4.02
Charlotte Hornets under 108.5	20.9%	21.7%	30.1%	0.72×	4.60
Miami Heat over 124.5	20.4%	21.7%	18.6%	1.17×	4.60
Miami Heat under 104.5	20.3%	21.7%	25.0%	0.87×	4.61
Charlotte Hornets over 128.5	20.0%	21.7%	14.5%	1.50×	4.61
Charlotte Hornets over 130.5	19.6%	19.3%	11.4%	1.69×	5.18
Miami Heat over 125.5	18.8%	19.3%	16.6%	1.16×	5.18

Total points 46

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 253.5 points	86.4%	85.5%	89.1%	0.96×	1.17
Under 255.5 points	86.2%	85.0%	90.8%	0.94×	1.18
Over 215.5 points	86.1%	85.0%	73.4%	1.16×	1.18
Over 213.5 points	84.9%	81.9%	76.4%	1.07×	1.22
Under 248.5 points	79.7%	78.1%	84.4%	0.93×	1.28
Over 218.5 points	77.8%	78.1%	67.8%	1.15×	1.28
Over 220.5 points	79.2%	75.6%	64.2%	1.18×	1.32
Under 250.5 points	79.3%	75.6%	86.1%	0.88×	1.32
Under 243.5 points	71.5%	71.0%	78.2%	0.91×	1.41
Over 225.5 points	70.6%	70.8%	54.7%	1.29×	1.41
Under 245.5 points	70.7%	70.8%	80.9%	0.88×	1.41
Over 223.5 points	69.1%	66.6%	58.3%	1.14×	1.50
Over 226.5 points	63.3%	61.7%	52.7%	1.17×	1.62
Under 242.5 points	64.8%	61.5%	76.8%	0.80×	1.63
Over 228.5 points	64.8%	61.5%	48.7%	1.26×	1.63
Over 230.5 points	60.7%	61.5%	44.6%	1.38×	1.63
Under 240.5 points	60.7%	61.5%	74.0%	0.83×	1.63
Over 232.5 points	56.5%	56.5%	40.6%	1.39×	1.77
Under 238.5 points	56.5%	56.5%	70.9%	0.80×	1.77
Over 234.5 points	52.2%	52.3%	36.7%	1.43×	1.91
Under 236.5 points	52.2%	52.3%	67.3%	0.78×	1.91
Under 235.5 points	50.1%	52.3%	65.3%	0.80×	1.91
Under 233.5 points	51.4%	52.2%	61.4%	0.85×	1.92
Over 233.5 points	48.6%	47.8%	38.6%	1.24×	2.09
Over 235.5 points	49.9%	47.7%	34.7%	1.37×	2.10
Under 234.5 points	47.8%	47.7%	63.3%	0.75×	2.10
Over 236.5 points	47.8%	47.7%	32.7%	1.46×	2.10
Under 232.5 points	43.5%	43.5%	59.4%	0.73×	2.30
Over 238.5 points	43.5%	43.5%	29.1%	1.49×	2.30
Under 230.5 points	39.3%	38.5%	55.4%	0.70×	2.60
Over 240.5 points	39.3%	38.5%	26.0%	1.48×	2.60
Over 242.5 points	35.2%	38.5%	23.2%	1.66×	2.60
Under 228.5 points	35.2%	38.5%	51.3%	0.75×	2.60
Under 226.5 points	36.7%	38.3%	47.3%	0.81×	2.61
Under 223.5 points	30.9%	33.4%	41.7%	0.80×	3.00
Under 225.5 points	29.4%	29.2%	45.3%	0.64×	3.43
Over 245.5 points	29.3%	29.2%	19.1%	1.52×	3.43
Over 243.5 points	28.5%	29.0%	21.8%	1.33×	3.45
Under 220.5 points	20.8%	24.4%	35.8%	0.68×	4.10
Over 250.5 points	20.7%	24.4%	13.9%	1.76×	4.10
Under 218.5 points	22.2%	21.9%	32.2%	0.68×	4.57
Over 248.5 points	20.3%	21.9%	15.6%	1.41×	4.57
Under 213.5 points	15.1%	18.1%	23.6%	0.77×	5.53
Under 215.5 points	13.9%	15.0%	26.6%	0.56×	6.68
Over 255.5 points	13.8%	15.0%	9.2%	1.63×	6.68
Over 253.5 points	13.6%	14.5%	10.9%	1.34×	6.88

Win both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte Hornets to win both halves	31.0%	31.2%	25.2%	1.24×	3.20
Miami Heat to win both halves	13.2%	14.1%	17.8%	0.79×	7.12

Winning margin 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Charlotte Hornets by 1-5	13.9%	12.3%	12.8%	0.96×	8.11
Charlotte Hornets by 6-10	13.8%	12.3%	13.9%	0.88×	8.11
Miami Heat by 1-5	12.0%	12.3%	12.3%	1.01×	8.11
Charlotte Hornets by 11-15	12.1%	12.3%	10.8%	1.14×	8.11
Miami Heat by 6-10	9.4%	7.5%	12.3%	0.61×	13.40
Charlotte Hornets by 16-20	9.5%	7.5%	7.3%	1.02×	13.40
Charlotte Hornets by 26+	8.2%	7.5%	6.2%	1.21×	13.40
Miami Heat by 11-15	6.5%	7.5%	8.0%	0.93×	13.40
Charlotte Hornets by 21-25	6.6%	7.5%	4.7%	1.58×	13.40
Miami Heat by 16-20	4.0%	2.0%	4.9%	0.42×	49.29
Miami Heat by 21-25	2.2%	2.0%	3.0%	0.67×	49.31
Miami Heat by 26+	1.8%	2.0%	3.9%	0.53×	49.31

Charlotte Hornets v Miami Heat — Prediction, Odds & Stats

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