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Cornell Big Red v Mercyhurst Lakers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 18 November 2026 · NCAAW · 2027

NCAAW results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Cornell Big Red win
75.7%
Draw
0.0%
Mercyhurst Lakers win
24.3%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 68.47–60.82 69-61 0% 50% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cornell Big Red to score 100+ 0.1% 0.4% 1.8% 0.20× 283.34
Cornell Big Red to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.64× 283.36
Cornell Big Red to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 2.91× 283.36
Cornell Big Red to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 7.58× 283.36
Mercyhurst Lakers to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.72× 283.36
Mercyhurst Lakers to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.74× 283.36
Mercyhurst Lakers to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 18.95× 283.36
Mercyhurst Lakers to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 37.89× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 6.32× 283.36
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cornell Big Red to win H1 64.2% 62.3% 56.4% 1.10× 1.61
Mercyhurst Lakers to win H1 31.7% 33.1% 39.9% 0.83× 3.02
H1 tied 4.1% 3.9% 3.7% 1.05× 25.86
H1 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 74.5 89.4% 87.7% 87.2% 1.01× 1.14
H1 over 50.5 87.1% 87.7% 84.5% 1.04× 1.14
H1 under 70.5 80.3% 82.5% 78.9% 1.05× 1.21
H1 over 54.5 76.7% 77.4% 74.0% 1.05× 1.29
H1 under 67.5 71.1% 73.5% 70.4% 1.04× 1.36
H1 over 57.5 66.7% 67.4% 64.8% 1.04× 1.48
H1 under 65.5 64.0% 62.7% 63.9% 0.98× 1.59
H1 over 59.5 59.2% 58.2% 57.8% 1.01× 1.72
H1 under 63.5 56.4% 58.2% 57.1% 1.02× 1.72
H1 under 62.5 52.5% 52.6% 53.7% 0.98× 1.90
H1 over 61.5 51.4% 52.6% 50.2% 1.05× 1.90
H1 under 61.5 48.6% 47.4% 49.8% 0.95× 2.11
H1 over 62.5 47.5% 47.4% 46.3% 1.02× 2.11
H1 over 63.5 43.6% 41.8% 42.9% 0.97× 2.39
H1 under 59.5 40.8% 41.8% 42.2% 0.99× 2.39
H1 over 65.5 36.0% 37.3% 36.1% 1.03× 2.68
H1 under 57.5 33.3% 32.6% 35.2% 0.93× 3.07
H1 over 67.5 28.9% 26.5% 29.6% 0.90× 3.77
H1 under 54.5 23.3% 22.6% 26.0% 0.87× 4.43
H1 over 70.5 19.7% 17.5% 21.1% 0.83× 5.72
H1 under 50.5 12.9% 12.3% 15.5% 0.80× 8.14
H1 over 74.5 10.6% 12.3% 12.8% 0.96× 8.14
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cornell Big Red to win H2 65.2% 62.7% 56.0% 1.12× 1.59
Mercyhurst Lakers to win H2 30.9% 36.3% 40.6% 0.89× 2.76
H2 tied 3.9% 3.9% 3.4% 1.16× 25.36
H2 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 80.5 88.5% 85.2% 84.0% 1.01× 1.17
H2 over 56.5 85.7% 85.2% 84.1% 1.01× 1.17
H2 under 76.5 79.5% 75.8% 75.6% 1.00× 1.32
H2 over 60.5 75.4% 75.8% 74.5% 1.02× 1.32
H2 under 73.5 70.6% 72.2% 67.1% 1.08× 1.39
H2 over 63.5 65.6% 66.4% 65.3% 1.02× 1.51
H2 under 71.5 63.9% 61.6% 61.1% 1.01× 1.62
H2 over 65.5 58.4% 57.3% 58.8% 0.98× 1.74
H2 under 69.5 56.6% 57.3% 54.8% 1.05× 1.74
H2 under 68.5 52.9% 52.4% 51.3% 1.02× 1.91
H2 over 67.5 50.9% 52.4% 52.1% 1.00× 1.91
H2 under 67.5 49.1% 47.6% 47.9% 1.00× 2.10
H2 over 68.5 47.1% 47.6% 48.7% 0.98× 2.10
H2 over 69.5 43.4% 42.7% 45.2% 0.94× 2.34
H2 under 65.5 41.6% 42.7% 41.2% 1.03× 2.34
H2 over 71.5 36.1% 38.4% 38.9% 0.99× 2.61
H2 under 63.5 34.4% 33.6% 34.7% 0.97× 2.97
H2 over 73.5 29.4% 27.8% 32.9% 0.85× 3.59
H2 under 60.5 24.6% 24.2% 25.5% 0.95× 4.13
H2 over 76.5 20.5% 24.2% 24.4% 0.99× 4.13
H2 under 56.5 14.3% 14.8% 15.9% 0.93× 6.76
H2 over 80.5 11.5% 14.8% 16.0% 0.93× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cornell Big Red leading at half time 64.2% 62.5% 56.4% 1.11× 1.60
Mercyhurst Lakers leading at half time 31.7% 32.7% 39.9% 0.82× 3.06
Level at half time 4.1% 3.8% 3.7% 1.03× 26.40
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cornell Big Red +20.5 99.4% 97.4% 92.7% 1.05× 1.03
Cornell Big Red +12.5 96.3% 97.4% 83.8% 1.16× 1.03
Cornell Big Red +14.5 97.5% 97.4% 86.7% 1.12× 1.03
Cornell Big Red +16.5 98.4% 97.4% 89.1% 1.09× 1.03
Cornell Big Red +18.5 99.0% 97.4% 91.1% 1.07× 1.03
Cornell Big Red +10.5 94.5% 91.1% 80.4% 1.13× 1.10
Cornell Big Red +8.5 92.2% 91.1% 76.5% 1.19× 1.10
Cornell Big Red +9.5 93.5% 91.1% 78.7% 1.16× 1.10
Cornell Big Red +7.5 90.8% 91.1% 74.5% 1.22× 1.10
Cornell Big Red +6.5 89.2% 85.9% 72.3% 1.19× 1.16
Cornell Big Red +5.5 87.5% 85.9% 70.1% 1.23× 1.16
Mercyhurst Lakers +20.5 87.6% 85.9% 82.0% 1.05× 1.16
Cornell Big Red +4.5 85.5% 85.9% 67.8% 1.27× 1.16
Mercyhurst Lakers +18.5 83.4% 81.1% 79.3% 1.02× 1.23
Cornell Big Red +3.5 83.4% 81.1% 65.7% 1.23× 1.23
Cornell Big Red +2.5 81.0% 81.1% 63.3% 1.28× 1.23
Cornell Big Red +1.5 78.4% 76.5% 61.2% 1.25× 1.31
Mercyhurst Lakers +16.5 78.5% 76.5% 75.7% 1.01× 1.31
Cornell Big Red −1.5 72.6% 71.6% 58.7% 1.22× 1.40
Mercyhurst Lakers +14.5 72.7% 71.6% 72.1% 0.99× 1.40
Cornell Big Red −2.5 69.3% 66.7% 56.7% 1.18× 1.50
Mercyhurst Lakers +12.5 66.3% 66.7% 67.9% 0.98× 1.50
Cornell Big Red −3.5 66.0% 66.7% 54.2% 1.23× 1.50
Cornell Big Red −4.5 62.5% 61.9% 52.2% 1.19× 1.62
Mercyhurst Lakers +10.5 59.4% 57.1% 63.2% 0.90× 1.75
Cornell Big Red −5.5 58.9% 57.1% 49.7% 1.15× 1.75
Mercyhurst Lakers +9.5 55.8% 57.1% 60.7% 0.94× 1.75
Cornell Big Red −6.5 55.2% 57.1% 47.6% 1.20× 1.75
Mercyhurst Lakers +8.5 52.1% 52.4% 58.0% 0.90× 1.91
Cornell Big Red −7.5 51.5% 52.4% 44.8% 1.17× 1.91
Mercyhurst Lakers +7.5 48.5% 47.6% 55.2% 0.86× 2.10
Cornell Big Red −8.5 47.9% 47.6% 42.0% 1.13× 2.10
Mercyhurst Lakers +6.5 44.8% 42.9% 52.4% 0.82× 2.33
Cornell Big Red −9.5 44.2% 42.9% 39.3% 1.09× 2.33
Mercyhurst Lakers +5.5 41.1% 42.9% 50.3% 0.85× 2.33
Cornell Big Red −10.5 40.6% 42.9% 36.8% 1.17× 2.33
Mercyhurst Lakers +4.5 37.5% 38.1% 47.8% 0.80× 2.63
Mercyhurst Lakers +3.5 34.1% 33.3% 45.8% 0.73× 3.01
Cornell Big Red −12.5 33.7% 33.3% 32.1% 1.04× 3.01
Mercyhurst Lakers +2.5 30.7% 33.3% 43.3% 0.77× 3.01
Mercyhurst Lakers +1.5 27.4% 28.4% 41.3% 0.69× 3.53
Cornell Big Red −14.5 27.3% 28.4% 27.9% 1.02× 3.53
Mercyhurst Lakers −1.5 21.6% 23.5% 38.8% 0.61× 4.25
Cornell Big Red −16.5 21.5% 23.5% 24.3% 0.97× 4.25
Mercyhurst Lakers −2.5 19.0% 18.9% 36.7% 0.52× 5.29
Mercyhurst Lakers −3.5 16.6% 18.9% 34.3% 0.55× 5.30
Cornell Big Red −18.5 16.6% 18.9% 20.7% 0.91× 5.30
Mercyhurst Lakers −4.5 14.5% 14.1% 32.2% 0.44× 7.09
Mercyhurst Lakers −5.5 12.5% 14.1% 29.9% 0.47× 7.09
Cornell Big Red −20.5 12.4% 14.1% 18.0% 0.78× 7.09
Mercyhurst Lakers −6.5 10.8% 14.1% 27.7% 0.51× 7.09
Mercyhurst Lakers −7.5 9.2% 8.9% 25.5% 0.35× 11.25
Mercyhurst Lakers −8.5 7.8% 8.9% 23.5% 0.38× 11.25
Mercyhurst Lakers −9.5 6.5% 8.9% 21.3% 0.42× 11.25
Mercyhurst Lakers −10.5 5.5% 8.9% 19.6% 0.45× 11.25
Mercyhurst Lakers −12.5 3.7% 2.6% 16.2% 0.16× 38.73
Mercyhurst Lakers −14.5 2.5% 2.6% 13.3% 0.19× 38.73
Mercyhurst Lakers −16.5 1.6% 2.6% 10.9% 0.24× 38.73
Mercyhurst Lakers −18.5 1.0% 2.6% 8.9% 0.29× 38.74
Mercyhurst Lakers −20.5 0.6% 2.6% 7.3% 0.35× 38.74
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 72.0% 67.1% 66.7% 1.01× 1.49
1st half highest scoring 28.0% 32.9% 33.3% 0.99× 3.04
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 highest scoring 34.4% 31.9% 31.2% 1.02× 3.14
Q3 highest scoring 32.6% 31.9% 31.3% 1.02× 3.14
Q1 highest scoring 17.2% 18.3% 19.6% 0.94× 5.46
Q2 highest scoring 15.7% 18.3% 17.9% 1.02× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cornell Big Red at HT / Cornell Big Red at FT 56.8% 56.8% 48.3% 1.18× 1.76
Mercyhurst Lakers at HT / Cornell Big Red at FT 15.9% 15.4% 9.8% 1.58× 6.47
Mercyhurst Lakers at HT / Mercyhurst Lakers at FT 15.7% 15.4% 30.1% 0.51× 6.47
Cornell Big Red at HT / Mercyhurst Lakers at FT 7.4% 8.3% 8.2% 1.01× 12.09
Level at HT / Cornell Big Red at FT 2.9% 2.1% 1.9% 1.09× 47.74
Level at HT / Mercyhurst Lakers at FT 1.2% 2.1% 1.8% 1.20× 47.77
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cornell Big Red to win 75.7% 75.1% 59.9% 1.25× 1.33
Mercyhurst Lakers to win 24.3% 24.9% 40.1% 0.62× 4.01
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Total points odd 51.5% 50.5% 51.5% 0.98× 1.98
Cornell Big Red even 50.0% 50.5% 49.4% 1.02× 1.98
Mercyhurst Lakers even 50.1% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
Cornell Big Red odd 50.0% 49.5% 50.6% 0.98× 2.02
Mercyhurst Lakers odd 49.9% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
Total points even 48.5% 49.5% 48.5% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 94.7% 94.0% 95.6% 0.98× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 5.3% 6.0% 4.4% 1.35× 16.66
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cornell Big Red to win Q1 58.3% 57.3% 54.7% 1.05× 1.75
Mercyhurst Lakers to win Q1 35.9% 38.2% 40.4% 0.95× 2.62
Q1 tied 5.9% 5.5% 4.9% 1.11× 18.32
Q1 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 under 39.5 89.3% 87.4% 87.5% 1.00× 1.14
Q1 over 23.5 87.0% 87.4% 85.4% 1.02× 1.14
Q1 under 36.5 78.8% 76.9% 77.4% 0.99× 1.30
Q1 over 26.5 75.2% 76.9% 72.9% 1.06× 1.30
Q1 under 34.5 69.2% 67.6% 68.5% 0.99× 1.48
Q1 over 28.5 65.0% 67.6% 62.7% 1.08× 1.48
Q1 under 32.5 58.2% 58.6% 59.1% 0.99× 1.71
Q1 over 30.5 53.5% 52.7% 51.2% 1.03× 1.90
Q1 under 31.5 52.4% 52.7% 54.0% 0.98× 1.90
Q1 over 31.5 47.6% 47.3% 46.0% 1.03× 2.11
Q1 under 30.5 46.5% 47.3% 48.8% 0.97× 2.11
Q1 over 32.5 41.8% 41.4% 40.9% 1.01× 2.42
Q1 under 28.5 35.0% 32.4% 37.3% 0.87× 3.08
Q1 over 34.5 30.8% 32.4% 31.5% 1.03× 3.08
Q1 under 26.5 24.8% 23.1% 27.1% 0.85× 4.33
Q1 over 36.5 21.2% 23.1% 22.6% 1.02× 4.33
Q1 under 23.5 13.0% 12.6% 14.6% 0.86× 7.95
Q1 over 39.5 10.7% 12.6% 12.5% 1.00× 7.95
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cornell Big Red to win Q2 58.0% 59.4% 52.9% 1.12× 1.68
Mercyhurst Lakers to win Q2 36.2% 35.7% 41.5% 0.86× 2.80
Q2 tied 5.8% 6.1% 5.7% 1.07× 16.50
Q2 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 under 39.5 90.1% 90.8% 88.4% 1.03× 1.10
Q2 over 23.5 86.0% 87.3% 84.6% 1.03× 1.15
Q2 under 36.5 80.1% 83.0% 78.7% 1.05× 1.21
Q2 over 26.5 73.7% 72.0% 71.6% 1.01× 1.39
Q2 under 34.5 70.9% 72.0% 70.1% 1.03× 1.39
Q2 over 28.5 63.2% 60.7% 61.2% 0.99× 1.65
Q2 under 32.5 60.1% 60.7% 60.8% 1.00× 1.65
Q2 under 31.5 54.3% 52.7% 55.7% 0.95× 1.90
Q2 over 30.5 51.6% 52.7% 49.9% 1.06× 1.90
Q2 under 30.5 48.4% 47.3% 50.1% 0.95× 2.11
Q2 over 31.5 45.7% 47.3% 44.3% 1.07× 2.11
Q2 over 32.5 39.9% 39.3% 39.2% 1.00× 2.54
Q2 under 28.5 36.8% 39.3% 38.8% 1.01× 2.55
Q2 over 34.5 29.1% 28.0% 29.9% 0.94× 3.57
Q2 under 26.5 26.3% 28.0% 28.4% 0.99× 3.57
Q2 over 36.5 19.9% 17.0% 21.3% 0.80× 5.88
Q2 under 23.5 14.0% 12.7% 15.4% 0.82× 7.89
Q2 over 39.5 9.9% 9.2% 11.6% 0.80× 10.82
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cornell Big Red to win Q3 59.0% 56.8% 53.3% 1.07× 1.76
Mercyhurst Lakers to win Q3 35.3% 38.7% 41.8% 0.93× 2.58
Q3 tied 5.7% 5.3% 4.9% 1.07× 18.97
Q3 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 under 42.5 89.3% 87.2% 87.8% 0.99× 1.15
Q3 over 26.5 85.6% 87.2% 83.8% 1.04× 1.15
Q3 under 39.5 79.2% 77.3% 77.9% 0.99× 1.29
Q3 over 29.5 73.5% 71.8% 71.8% 1.00× 1.39
Q3 under 37.5 70.0% 71.8% 69.7% 1.03× 1.39
Q3 over 31.5 63.2% 62.0% 61.6% 1.01× 1.61
Q3 under 35.5 59.4% 58.4% 59.7% 0.98× 1.71
Q3 under 34.5 53.7% 52.3% 54.6% 0.96× 1.91
Q3 over 33.5 52.0% 52.3% 50.9% 1.03× 1.91
Q3 under 33.5 48.0% 47.7% 49.1% 0.97× 2.10
Q3 over 34.5 46.3% 47.7% 45.4% 1.05× 2.10
Q3 over 35.5 40.6% 41.6% 40.3% 1.03× 2.40
Q3 under 31.5 36.8% 38.1% 38.4% 0.99× 2.63
Q3 over 37.5 30.0% 28.2% 30.3% 0.93× 3.55
Q3 under 29.5 26.5% 28.2% 28.2% 1.00× 3.55
Q3 over 39.5 20.8% 22.7% 22.1% 1.03× 4.40
Q3 under 26.5 14.4% 12.8% 16.2% 0.79× 7.83
Q3 over 42.5 10.7% 12.8% 12.2% 1.05× 7.83
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cornell Big Red to win Q4 58.8% 52.1% 52.8% 0.99× 1.92
Mercyhurst Lakers to win Q4 35.6% 42.4% 41.5% 1.02× 2.36
Q4 tied 5.6% 5.8% 5.7% 1.02× 17.25
Q4 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 under 42.5 87.8% 85.6% 86.2% 0.99× 1.17
Q4 over 26.5 84.4% 82.0% 82.6% 0.99× 1.22
Q4 under 39.5 77.6% 76.9% 77.0% 1.00× 1.30
Q4 over 29.5 72.6% 71.5% 70.8% 1.01× 1.40
Q4 under 37.5 68.7% 67.4% 68.8% 0.98× 1.48
Q4 over 31.5 62.9% 61.4% 61.1% 1.01× 1.63
Q4 under 35.5 58.5% 58.4% 59.4% 0.98× 1.71
Q4 under 34.5 53.2% 52.5% 54.4% 0.96× 1.91
Q4 over 33.5 52.2% 52.5% 50.4% 1.04× 1.91
Q4 under 33.5 47.8% 47.5% 49.6% 0.96× 2.11
Q4 over 34.5 46.8% 47.5% 45.6% 1.04× 2.11
Q4 over 35.5 41.5% 41.6% 40.6% 1.02× 2.40
Q4 under 31.5 37.1% 38.6% 38.9% 0.99× 2.59
Q4 over 37.5 31.3% 32.6% 31.2% 1.04× 3.07
Q4 under 29.5 27.4% 28.5% 29.2% 0.98× 3.51
Q4 over 39.5 22.4% 23.1% 23.0% 1.00× 4.33
Q4 under 26.5 15.6% 18.0% 17.4% 1.04× 5.56
Q4 over 42.5 12.2% 14.4% 13.8% 1.04× 6.95
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mercyhurst Lakers under 71.5 87.5% 83.9% 76.1% 1.10× 1.19
Cornell Big Red over 58.5 85.7% 83.9% 74.7% 1.12× 1.19
Cornell Big Red under 78.5 84.9% 80.7% 79.4% 1.02× 1.24
Mercyhurst Lakers over 51.5 84.9% 80.7% 81.0% 1.00× 1.24
Mercyhurst Lakers under 68.5 79.6% 75.1% 68.6% 1.10× 1.33
Cornell Big Red over 61.5 77.5% 75.1% 66.9% 1.12× 1.33
Cornell Big Red under 75.5 76.3% 75.1% 73.2% 1.03× 1.33
Mercyhurst Lakers over 54.5 75.6% 75.1% 73.5% 1.02× 1.33
Mercyhurst Lakers under 66.5 73.0% 70.7% 62.7% 1.13× 1.41
Cornell Big Red over 63.5 70.7% 70.7% 61.5% 1.15× 1.41
Cornell Big Red under 73.5 69.3% 66.4% 68.5% 0.97× 1.51
Mercyhurst Lakers over 56.5 68.2% 66.4% 68.0% 0.98× 1.51
Mercyhurst Lakers under 64.5 65.4% 66.4% 56.9% 1.17× 1.51
Cornell Big Red over 65.5 63.1% 61.2% 55.3% 1.11× 1.63
Cornell Big Red under 71.5 61.6% 61.2% 63.0% 0.97× 1.63
Mercyhurst Lakers over 58.5 60.0% 61.2% 62.1% 0.98× 1.63
Mercyhurst Lakers under 62.5 57.2% 57.1% 51.0% 1.12× 1.75
Cornell Big Red over 67.5 55.0% 57.1% 48.7% 1.17× 1.75
Cornell Big Red under 69.5 53.4% 52.3% 57.4% 0.91× 1.91
Mercyhurst Lakers over 60.5 51.4% 52.3% 55.6% 0.94× 1.91
Mercyhurst Lakers under 61.5 52.9% 52.3% 47.9% 1.09× 1.91
Cornell Big Red over 68.5 50.8% 52.3% 45.6% 1.15× 1.91
Cornell Big Red under 68.5 49.2% 47.7% 54.4% 0.88× 2.09
Cornell Big Red over 69.5 46.6% 47.7% 42.6% 1.12× 2.09
Mercyhurst Lakers under 60.5 48.6% 47.7% 44.4% 1.08× 2.09
Mercyhurst Lakers over 61.5 47.1% 47.7% 52.1% 0.92× 2.09
Cornell Big Red under 67.5 45.0% 42.9% 51.3% 0.84× 2.33
Mercyhurst Lakers over 62.5 42.8% 42.9% 49.0% 0.87× 2.33
Mercyhurst Lakers under 58.5 40.0% 38.8% 37.9% 1.03× 2.58
Cornell Big Red over 71.5 38.4% 38.8% 37.0% 1.05× 2.58
Cornell Big Red under 65.5 36.9% 38.8% 44.7% 0.87× 2.58
Mercyhurst Lakers over 64.5 34.6% 33.6% 43.2% 0.78× 2.98
Mercyhurst Lakers under 56.5 31.8% 33.6% 32.0% 1.05× 2.98
Cornell Big Red over 73.5 30.7% 33.6% 31.5% 1.07× 2.98
Cornell Big Red under 63.5 29.3% 29.3% 38.5% 0.76× 3.42
Mercyhurst Lakers over 66.5 27.0% 29.3% 37.3% 0.79× 3.42
Mercyhurst Lakers under 54.5 24.4% 24.9% 26.5% 0.94× 4.02
Cornell Big Red under 61.5 22.5% 24.9% 33.1% 0.75× 4.02
Cornell Big Red over 75.5 23.7% 24.9% 26.8% 0.93× 4.02
Mercyhurst Lakers over 68.5 20.4% 24.9% 31.4% 0.79× 4.02
Cornell Big Red over 78.5 15.1% 19.3% 20.6% 0.94× 5.18
Mercyhurst Lakers under 51.5 15.1% 19.3% 19.0% 1.01× 5.18
Cornell Big Red under 58.5 14.3% 16.1% 25.3% 0.64× 6.21
Mercyhurst Lakers over 71.5 12.5% 16.1% 23.9% 0.67× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 109.5 points 91.5% 88.8% 87.6% 1.01× 1.13
Under 149.5 points 90.9% 88.8% 84.9% 1.05× 1.13
Over 114.5 points 84.7% 80.6% 80.4% 1.00× 1.24
Under 144.5 points 84.1% 80.6% 78.1% 1.03× 1.24
Over 119.5 points 75.0% 75.6% 71.6% 1.06× 1.32
Under 139.5 points 74.8% 70.8% 69.9% 1.01× 1.41
Over 122.5 points 68.2% 65.9% 65.6% 1.00× 1.52
Under 136.5 points 67.9% 65.9% 64.2% 1.03× 1.52
Over 124.5 points 63.3% 61.5% 61.5% 1.00× 1.63
Under 134.5 points 63.0% 61.5% 60.2% 1.02× 1.63
Over 126.5 points 58.1% 56.5% 57.4% 0.99× 1.77
Under 132.5 points 57.9% 56.5% 56.0% 1.01× 1.77
Over 128.5 points 52.8% 52.3% 52.8% 0.99× 1.91
Under 130.5 points 52.6% 52.3% 51.7% 1.01× 1.91
Over 129.5 points 50.0% 52.3% 50.5% 1.04× 1.91
Under 129.5 points 50.0% 47.7% 49.5% 0.96× 2.10
Under 128.5 points 47.2% 47.7% 47.2% 1.01× 2.10
Over 130.5 points 47.4% 47.7% 48.3% 0.99× 2.10
Under 126.5 points 41.9% 43.5% 42.6% 1.02× 2.30
Over 132.5 points 42.2% 43.5% 44.0% 0.99× 2.30
Over 134.5 points 37.0% 38.5% 39.8% 0.97× 2.60
Under 124.5 points 36.7% 38.5% 38.5% 1.00× 2.60
Under 122.5 points 31.8% 34.1% 34.4% 0.99× 2.93
Over 136.5 points 32.1% 34.1% 35.8% 0.95× 2.93
Over 139.5 points 25.2% 29.2% 30.1% 0.97× 3.43
Under 119.5 points 25.0% 24.4% 28.4% 0.86× 4.10
Over 144.5 points 15.9% 19.4% 21.9% 0.89× 5.15
Under 114.5 points 15.3% 19.4% 19.6% 0.99× 5.15
Over 149.5 points 9.1% 11.2% 15.1% 0.74× 8.96
Under 109.5 points 8.5% 11.2% 12.4% 0.90× 8.96
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cornell Big Red to win both halves 39.2% 36.3% 36.0% 1.01× 2.75
Mercyhurst Lakers to win both halves 7.5% 8.8% 20.4% 0.43× 11.32
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cornell Big Red by 6-10 18.3% 16.8% 12.9% 1.30× 5.97
Cornell Big Red by 1-5 16.8% 16.8% 10.2% 1.64× 5.97
Cornell Big Red by 11-15 16.3% 16.8% 10.8% 1.55× 5.97
Mercyhurst Lakers by 1-5 11.8% 12.3% 10.2% 1.21× 8.11
Cornell Big Red by 16-20 11.9% 12.3% 8.0% 1.53× 8.11
Mercyhurst Lakers by 6-10 7.1% 7.5% 10.3% 0.72× 13.40
Cornell Big Red by 21-25 7.1% 7.5% 5.4% 1.39× 13.40
Cornell Big Red by 26+ 5.3% 7.5% 12.6% 0.59× 13.40
Mercyhurst Lakers by 11-15 3.5% 2.0% 7.6% 0.27× 49.30
Mercyhurst Lakers by 16-20 1.4% 2.0% 4.8% 0.43× 49.32
Mercyhurst Lakers by 21-25 0.5% 2.0% 2.7% 0.76× 49.32
Mercyhurst Lakers by 26+ 0.2% 2.0% 4.6% 0.44× 49.33
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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