Dallas Mavericks v Atlanta Hawks — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 17 October 2026 · NBA · 2027

NBA results-only Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 03:45 UTC

Dallas Mavericks

00:00 UTC

Atlanta Hawks

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Dallas Mavericks win

34.3%

Draw

0.0%

Atlanta Hawks win

65.7%

34066

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
nba-normal	34066	116.76–122.45	117-123 0%	49%	0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks to score 100+	97.5%	94.9%	85.9%	1.11×	1.05
Dallas Mavericks to score 100+	92.7%	90.3%	89.3%	1.01×	1.11
Both sides to score 100+	90.7%	90.3%	77.5%	1.16×	1.11
Atlanta Hawks to score 110+	86.7%	85.0%	60.9%	1.40×	1.18
Dallas Mavericks to score 110+	72.8%	72.3%	67.0%	1.08×	1.38
Atlanta Hawks to score 120+	60.2%	61.8%	29.7%	2.08×	1.62
Dallas Mavericks to score 120+	40.5%	41.8%	36.5%	1.14×	2.39
Atlanta Hawks to score 130+	27.6%	27.5%	10.0%	2.76×	3.63
Dallas Mavericks to score 130+	13.9%	13.8%	12.8%	1.08×	7.22

H1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks to win H1	58.6%	57.3%	44.1%	1.30×	1.75
Dallas Mavericks to win H1	38.0%	37.8%	52.8%	0.72×	2.64
H1 tied	3.4%	3.9%	3.1%	1.25×	25.86

H1 total 34

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H1 under 130.5	82.0%	83.2%	89.6%	0.93×	1.20
H1 over 106.5	81.9%	83.2%	73.3%	1.14×	1.20
H1 over 108.5	82.6%	82.5%	67.7%	1.22×	1.21
H1 under 132.5	81.7%	82.5%	92.0%	0.90×	1.21
H1 under 126.5	72.9%	74.0%	82.8%	0.89×	1.35
H1 over 110.5	72.8%	74.0%	61.9%	1.19×	1.35
H1 over 112.5	73.7%	73.5%	55.8%	1.32×	1.36
H1 under 128.5	72.5%	73.5%	86.7%	0.85×	1.36
H1 over 115.5	65.6%	67.4%	46.4%	1.45×	1.48
H1 over 113.5	64.7%	63.3%	52.4%	1.21×	1.58
H1 under 125.5	64.3%	62.7%	80.7%	0.78×	1.59
H1 over 117.5	59.8%	58.2%	40.4%	1.44×	1.72
H1 under 123.5	58.4%	58.2%	76.0%	0.77×	1.72
H1 over 119.5	53.8%	52.6%	34.1%	1.55×	1.90
H1 under 121.5	52.4%	52.6%	71.2%	0.74×	1.90
H1 over 120.5	50.7%	52.6%	31.6%	1.67×	1.90
H1 under 118.5	50.1%	52.5%	62.9%	0.84×	1.90
H1 over 118.5	49.9%	47.5%	37.1%	1.28×	2.11
H1 under 120.5	49.3%	47.4%	68.4%	0.69×	2.11
H1 over 121.5	47.6%	47.4%	28.8%	1.64×	2.11
H1 under 119.5	46.2%	47.4%	65.9%	0.72×	2.11
H1 over 123.5	41.6%	41.8%	24.0%	1.74×	2.39
H1 under 117.5	40.2%	41.8%	59.6%	0.70×	2.39
H1 over 125.5	35.7%	37.3%	19.3%	1.93×	2.68
H1 under 113.5	35.3%	36.7%	47.6%	0.77×	2.72
H1 under 115.5	34.4%	32.6%	53.6%	0.61×	3.07
H1 over 128.5	27.5%	26.5%	13.3%	1.99×	3.77
H1 under 112.5	26.3%	26.5%	44.2%	0.60×	3.77
H1 under 110.5	27.2%	26.0%	38.1%	0.68×	3.84
H1 over 126.5	27.1%	26.0%	17.2%	1.51×	3.84
H1 over 132.5	18.3%	17.5%	8.0%	2.18×	5.72
H1 under 108.5	17.4%	17.5%	32.3%	0.54×	5.73
H1 under 106.5	18.1%	16.8%	26.7%	0.63×	5.96
H1 over 130.5	18.0%	16.8%	10.4%	1.62×	5.96

H2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks to win H2	58.5%	55.0%	44.7%	1.23×	1.82
Dallas Mavericks to win H2	38.1%	41.2%	51.6%	0.80×	2.43
H2 tied	3.4%	3.9%	3.7%	1.06×	25.36

H2 total 34

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H2 under 130.5	82.5%	81.8%	88.9%	0.92×	1.22
H2 over 106.5	82.4%	81.8%	68.8%	1.19×	1.22
H2 under 128.5	82.6%	81.5%	86.3%	0.95×	1.23
H2 over 104.5	81.7%	81.5%	73.9%	1.10×	1.23
H2 under 124.5	73.6%	72.5%	79.1%	0.92×	1.38
H2 over 108.5	72.5%	72.5%	63.8%	1.14×	1.38
H2 under 126.5	73.3%	72.2%	83.2%	0.87×	1.39
H2 over 110.5	73.2%	72.2%	58.1%	1.24×	1.39
H2 under 123.5	65.2%	66.4%	76.9%	0.86×	1.51
H2 over 113.5	65.0%	66.4%	49.9%	1.33×	1.51
H2 over 111.5	64.3%	62.6%	55.3%	1.13×	1.60
H2 over 115.5	59.1%	57.3%	44.6%	1.29×	1.74
H2 under 121.5	59.3%	57.3%	72.0%	0.80×	1.74
H2 over 117.5	53.0%	52.4%	38.9%	1.34×	1.91
H2 under 119.5	53.2%	52.4%	66.4%	0.79×	1.91
H2 under 118.5	50.1%	52.4%	63.6%	0.82×	1.91
H2 under 116.5	50.7%	52.0%	58.1%	0.90×	1.92
H2 over 116.5	49.3%	48.0%	41.9%	1.14×	2.09
H2 over 118.5	49.9%	47.6%	36.4%	1.31×	2.10
H2 under 117.5	47.0%	47.6%	61.1%	0.78×	2.10
H2 over 119.5	46.8%	47.6%	33.6%	1.42×	2.10
H2 under 115.5	40.9%	42.7%	55.4%	0.77×	2.35
H2 over 121.5	40.7%	42.7%	28.0%	1.52×	2.35
H2 under 111.5	35.7%	37.4%	44.7%	0.84×	2.67
H2 over 123.5	34.8%	33.6%	23.1%	1.45×	2.97
H2 under 113.5	35.0%	33.6%	50.1%	0.67×	2.97
H2 over 126.5	26.7%	27.8%	16.8%	1.66×	3.59
H2 under 110.5	26.8%	27.8%	41.9%	0.66×	3.59
H2 under 108.5	27.5%	27.5%	36.2%	0.76×	3.63
H2 over 124.5	26.4%	27.5%	20.9%	1.32×	3.64
H2 under 104.5	18.3%	18.5%	26.1%	0.71×	5.41
H2 over 128.5	17.4%	18.5%	13.7%	1.34×	5.41
H2 over 130.5	17.5%	18.2%	11.1%	1.64×	5.50
H2 under 106.5	17.6%	18.2%	31.2%	0.58×	5.50

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks leading at half time	58.6%	57.0%	44.1%	1.29×	1.76
Dallas Mavericks leading at half time	38.0%	37.9%	52.8%	0.72×	2.64
Level at half time	3.4%	3.8%	3.1%	1.22×	26.41

Handicap 60

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks +20.5	96.4%	97.4%	89.1%	1.09×	1.03
Atlanta Hawks +18.5	95.1%	97.4%	86.4%	1.13×	1.03
Atlanta Hawks +16.5	93.5%	91.1%	83.5%	1.09×	1.10
Atlanta Hawks +14.5	91.6%	91.1%	80.1%	1.14×	1.10
Atlanta Hawks +12.5	89.3%	85.9%	76.0%	1.13×	1.16
Atlanta Hawks +10.5	86.5%	85.9%	71.0%	1.21×	1.16
Atlanta Hawks +9.5	84.9%	81.1%	68.7%	1.18×	1.23
Dallas Mavericks +20.5	84.2%	81.1%	93.1%	0.87×	1.23
Atlanta Hawks +8.5	83.2%	81.1%	65.9%	1.23×	1.23
Atlanta Hawks +7.5	81.4%	81.1%	63.0%	1.29×	1.23
Dallas Mavericks +18.5	80.6%	81.1%	91.5%	0.89×	1.23
Atlanta Hawks +6.5	79.5%	76.5%	60.0%	1.27×	1.31
Atlanta Hawks +5.5	77.4%	76.5%	57.1%	1.34×	1.31
Dallas Mavericks +16.5	76.6%	76.5%	89.7%	0.85×	1.31
Atlanta Hawks +4.5	75.3%	76.5%	54.1%	1.41×	1.31
Atlanta Hawks +3.5	73.0%	71.6%	51.6%	1.39×	1.40
Dallas Mavericks +14.5	72.1%	71.6%	87.0%	0.82×	1.40
Atlanta Hawks +2.5	70.7%	71.6%	49.1%	1.46×	1.40
Atlanta Hawks +1.5	68.2%	66.7%	46.3%	1.44×	1.50
Dallas Mavericks +12.5	67.2%	66.7%	83.9%	0.80×	1.50
Atlanta Hawks −1.5	63.0%	61.9%	42.1%	1.47×	1.62
Dallas Mavericks +10.5	62.0%	61.9%	80.3%	0.77×	1.62
Atlanta Hawks −2.5	60.3%	61.9%	39.5%	1.57×	1.62
Dallas Mavericks +9.5	59.3%	57.1%	78.1%	0.73×	1.75
Atlanta Hawks −3.5	57.5%	57.1%	36.9%	1.55×	1.75
Dallas Mavericks +8.5	56.6%	57.1%	75.7%	0.75×	1.75
Atlanta Hawks −4.5	54.7%	52.4%	34.3%	1.53×	1.91
Dallas Mavericks +7.5	53.8%	52.4%	73.0%	0.72×	1.91
Atlanta Hawks −5.5	51.9%	52.4%	32.0%	1.64×	1.91
Dallas Mavericks +6.5	51.0%	52.4%	70.6%	0.74×	1.91
Atlanta Hawks −6.5	49.0%	47.6%	29.4%	1.62×	2.10
Dallas Mavericks +5.5	48.1%	47.6%	68.0%	0.70×	2.10
Atlanta Hawks −7.5	46.2%	47.6%	27.0%	1.76×	2.10
Dallas Mavericks +4.5	45.3%	47.6%	65.7%	0.72×	2.10
Dallas Mavericks +3.5	42.5%	42.9%	63.1%	0.68×	2.33
Atlanta Hawks −8.5	43.4%	42.9%	24.3%	1.77×	2.33
Atlanta Hawks −9.5	40.7%	42.9%	21.9%	1.96×	2.33
Dallas Mavericks +2.5	39.7%	38.1%	60.5%	0.63×	2.63
Atlanta Hawks −10.5	38.0%	38.1%	19.7%	1.93×	2.63
Dallas Mavericks +1.5	37.0%	38.1%	57.9%	0.66×	2.63
Atlanta Hawks −12.5	32.8%	33.3%	16.1%	2.06×	3.01
Dallas Mavericks −1.5	31.8%	33.3%	53.7%	0.62×	3.01
Dallas Mavericks −2.5	29.3%	28.4%	50.9%	0.56×	3.53
Atlanta Hawks −14.5	27.9%	28.4%	13.0%	2.18×	3.53
Dallas Mavericks −3.5	27.0%	28.4%	48.4%	0.59×	3.53
Dallas Mavericks −4.5	24.7%	23.5%	46.0%	0.51×	4.25
Atlanta Hawks −16.5	23.4%	23.5%	10.3%	2.28×	4.25
Dallas Mavericks −5.5	22.6%	23.5%	42.9%	0.55×	4.25
Dallas Mavericks −6.5	20.5%	23.5%	40.0%	0.59×	4.25
Dallas Mavericks −7.5	18.6%	18.9%	37.0%	0.51×	5.29
Atlanta Hawks −18.5	19.4%	18.9%	8.5%	2.22×	5.29
Dallas Mavericks −8.5	16.8%	18.9%	34.1%	0.55×	5.29
Atlanta Hawks −20.5	15.8%	18.9%	6.9%	2.74×	5.30
Dallas Mavericks −9.5	15.1%	18.9%	31.3%	0.60×	5.30
Dallas Mavericks −10.5	13.5%	14.1%	29.0%	0.49×	7.09
Dallas Mavericks −12.5	10.8%	14.1%	24.0%	0.59×	7.09
Dallas Mavericks −14.5	8.4%	8.9%	19.9%	0.45×	11.25
Dallas Mavericks −16.5	6.5%	8.9%	16.5%	0.54×	11.25
Dallas Mavericks −18.5	4.9%	2.6%	13.6%	0.19×	38.72
Dallas Mavericks −20.5	3.6%	2.6%	10.9%	0.24×	38.73

Highest scoring half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	56.9%	52.6%	53.5%	0.98×	1.90
2nd half highest scoring	43.1%	47.4%	46.5%	1.02×	2.11

Highest scoring quarter 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 highest scoring	28.4%	27.4%	29.2%	0.94×	3.65
Q3 highest scoring	28.1%	27.4%	27.5%	1.00×	3.65
Q2 highest scoring	26.6%	27.4%	26.3%	1.04×	3.65
Q4 highest scoring	16.9%	18.3%	17.0%	1.08×	5.46

HT/FT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks at HT / Atlanta Hawks at FT	49.0%	46.6%	30.9%	1.51×	2.15
Dallas Mavericks at HT / Dallas Mavericks at FT	23.5%	24.4%	40.8%	0.60×	4.09
Dallas Mavericks at HT / Atlanta Hawks at FT	14.5%	12.2%	12.0%	1.02×	8.17
Atlanta Hawks at HT / Dallas Mavericks at FT	9.6%	8.3%	13.3%	0.62×	12.08
Level at HT / Atlanta Hawks at FT	2.1%	2.1%	1.4%	1.50×	47.76
Level at HT / Dallas Mavericks at FT	1.3%	2.1%	1.7%	1.22×	47.77

Moneyline 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks to win	65.7%	64.5%	44.3%	1.46×	1.55
Dallas Mavericks to win	34.3%	35.5%	55.7%	0.64×	2.81

Odd/Even 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Dallas Mavericks even	50.0%	50.5%	49.7%	1.02×	1.98
Atlanta Hawks even	50.0%	50.5%	50.3%	1.00×	1.98
Total points odd	51.3%	50.5%	51.0%	0.99×	1.98
Dallas Mavericks odd	50.0%	49.5%	50.3%	0.98×	2.02
Atlanta Hawks odd	50.0%	49.5%	49.7%	1.00×	2.02
Total points even	48.7%	49.5%	49.0%	1.01×	2.02

Overtime 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No overtime	93.4%	94.0%	94.8%	0.99×	1.06
Match to go to overtime	6.6%	6.0%	5.2%	1.16×	16.65

Q1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks to win Q1	54.7%	52.6%	44.1%	1.19×	1.90
Dallas Mavericks to win Q1	40.6%	42.9%	51.3%	0.84×	2.33
Q1 tied	4.7%	4.2%	4.6%	0.90×	23.94

Q1 total 32

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 under 67.5	82.9%	83.2%	88.8%	0.94×	1.20
Q1 over 51.5	82.2%	83.2%	76.0%	1.10×	1.20
Q1 over 52.5	82.7%	82.8%	72.4%	1.14×	1.21
Q1 under 68.5	82.6%	82.8%	90.7%	0.91×	1.21
Q1 under 64.5	72.5%	73.1%	80.1%	0.91×	1.37
Q1 over 54.5	71.6%	73.1%	63.3%	1.16×	1.37
Q1 over 55.5	72.3%	72.7%	59.2%	1.23×	1.38
Q1 under 65.5	72.1%	72.7%	83.2%	0.87×	1.38
Q1 under 62.5	64.2%	62.3%	72.9%	0.85×	1.61
Q1 over 56.5	63.2%	62.3%	54.6%	1.14×	1.61
Q1 over 57.5	63.9%	61.7%	49.6%	1.25×	1.62
Q1 under 63.5	63.7%	61.7%	76.8%	0.80×	1.62
Q1 over 58.5	54.1%	52.7%	44.3%	1.19×	1.90
Q1 over 59.5	54.8%	52.7%	40.0%	1.32×	1.90
Q1 under 61.5	54.6%	52.7%	68.5%	0.77×	1.90
Q1 over 60.5	50.1%	52.7%	35.5%	1.48×	1.90
Q1 under 60.5	49.9%	47.3%	64.5%	0.73×	2.11
Q1 over 61.5	45.4%	47.3%	31.5%	1.50×	2.11
Q1 under 59.5	45.2%	47.3%	60.0%	0.79×	2.11
Q1 under 58.5	45.9%	47.3%	55.7%	0.85×	2.11
Q1 over 63.5	36.3%	38.3%	23.2%	1.65×	2.61
Q1 under 57.5	36.1%	38.3%	50.4%	0.76×	2.61
Q1 under 56.5	36.8%	37.7%	45.4%	0.83×	2.65
Q1 over 62.5	35.8%	37.7%	27.1%	1.39×	2.65
Q1 over 65.5	27.9%	27.3%	16.8%	1.62×	3.66
Q1 under 55.5	27.7%	27.3%	40.8%	0.67×	3.66
Q1 under 54.5	28.4%	26.9%	36.7%	0.73×	3.72
Q1 over 64.5	27.5%	26.9%	19.9%	1.35×	3.72
Q1 over 68.5	17.4%	17.2%	9.3%	1.84×	5.83
Q1 under 52.5	17.3%	17.2%	27.6%	0.62×	5.83
Q1 under 51.5	17.8%	16.8%	24.0%	0.70×	5.95
Q1 over 67.5	17.1%	16.8%	11.2%	1.49×	5.95

Q2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks to win Q2	54.6%	51.4%	46.2%	1.11×	1.95
Dallas Mavericks to win Q2	40.7%	43.9%	49.3%	0.89×	2.28
Q2 tied	4.7%	4.4%	4.5%	0.98×	22.88

Q2 total 32

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q2 under 67.5	83.6%	83.1%	88.7%	0.94×	1.20
Q2 over 51.5	81.1%	83.1%	74.2%	1.12×	1.20
Q2 under 68.5	83.4%	83.0%	90.6%	0.92×	1.21
Q2 over 52.5	81.6%	83.0%	70.3%	1.18×	1.21
Q2 under 64.5	73.6%	73.0%	80.9%	0.90×	1.37
Q2 over 54.5	70.3%	73.0%	61.1%	1.20×	1.37
Q2 under 65.5	73.2%	72.0%	83.6%	0.86×	1.39
Q2 over 55.5	70.9%	72.0%	56.3%	1.28×	1.39
Q2 under 62.5	65.4%	67.6%	74.4%	0.91×	1.48
Q2 over 56.5	61.8%	62.0%	51.7%	1.20×	1.61
Q2 under 63.5	65.0%	60.7%	77.5%	0.78×	1.65
Q2 over 57.5	62.4%	60.7%	47.3%	1.28×	1.65
Q2 under 61.5	56.0%	58.2%	70.4%	0.83×	1.72
Q2 over 59.5	53.3%	52.7%	38.1%	1.38×	1.90
Q2 under 60.5	51.4%	52.7%	65.7%	0.80×	1.90
Q2 over 58.5	52.7%	52.2%	42.7%	1.22×	1.92
Q2 under 58.5	47.3%	47.8%	57.3%	0.83×	2.09
Q2 over 60.5	48.6%	47.3%	34.3%	1.38×	2.11
Q2 under 59.5	46.7%	47.3%	61.9%	0.76×	2.11
Q2 over 61.5	44.0%	41.8%	29.6%	1.41×	2.39
Q2 under 57.5	37.6%	39.3%	52.7%	0.75×	2.55
Q2 over 63.5	35.0%	39.3%	22.5%	1.75×	2.55
Q2 under 56.5	38.2%	38.0%	48.3%	0.79×	2.63
Q2 over 62.5	34.6%	32.4%	25.6%	1.26×	3.09
Q2 under 55.5	29.1%	28.0%	43.7%	0.64×	3.57
Q2 over 65.5	26.8%	28.0%	16.4%	1.71×	3.57
Q2 under 54.5	29.7%	27.0%	38.9%	0.69×	3.71
Q2 over 64.5	26.4%	27.0%	19.1%	1.41×	3.71
Q2 under 52.5	18.4%	17.0%	29.7%	0.57×	5.88
Q2 over 68.5	16.6%	17.0%	9.4%	1.80×	5.88
Q2 under 51.5	18.9%	16.9%	25.8%	0.65×	5.93
Q2 over 67.5	16.4%	16.9%	11.3%	1.49×	5.93

Q3 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks to win Q3	54.7%	52.7%	44.3%	1.19×	1.90
Dallas Mavericks to win Q3	40.7%	42.2%	50.9%	0.83×	2.37
Q3 tied	4.7%	4.3%	4.9%	0.88×	23.43

Q3 total 32

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q3 over 52.5	83.5%	82.3%	72.2%	1.14×	1.22
Q3 under 68.5	82.4%	82.3%	89.3%	0.92×	1.22
Q3 over 51.5	82.9%	82.2%	76.1%	1.08×	1.22
Q3 under 67.5	82.6%	82.2%	87.0%	0.94×	1.22
Q3 over 54.5	72.5%	72.5%	63.9%	1.14×	1.38
Q3 under 64.5	72.0%	72.5%	79.2%	0.92×	1.38
Q3 over 55.5	73.1%	71.8%	59.9%	1.20×	1.39
Q3 under 65.5	71.6%	71.8%	82.2%	0.87×	1.39
Q3 over 56.5	64.1%	62.6%	55.0%	1.14×	1.60
Q3 under 62.5	63.6%	62.6%	71.9%	0.87×	1.60
Q3 over 57.5	64.8%	62.0%	50.2%	1.23×	1.61
Q3 under 63.5	63.1%	62.0%	75.9%	0.82×	1.61
Q3 over 59.5	55.6%	58.4%	41.0%	1.42×	1.71
Q3 over 58.5	55.0%	52.6%	45.2%	1.16×	1.90
Q3 under 61.5	53.9%	52.3%	67.7%	0.77×	1.91
Q3 over 60.5	50.9%	52.3%	36.5%	1.43×	1.91
Q3 under 60.5	49.1%	47.7%	63.5%	0.75×	2.10
Q3 over 61.5	46.1%	47.7%	32.3%	1.48×	2.10
Q3 under 58.5	45.0%	47.4%	54.8%	0.86×	2.11
Q3 under 59.5	44.4%	41.6%	59.0%	0.71×	2.40
Q3 over 63.5	36.9%	38.1%	24.1%	1.58×	2.63
Q3 under 57.5	35.2%	38.0%	49.8%	0.76×	2.63
Q3 over 62.5	36.4%	37.4%	28.1%	1.33×	2.67
Q3 under 56.5	35.9%	37.4%	45.0%	0.83×	2.67
Q3 over 65.5	28.4%	28.2%	17.8%	1.58×	3.55
Q3 under 55.5	26.9%	28.2%	40.1%	0.70×	3.55
Q3 over 64.5	28.0%	27.5%	20.8%	1.32×	3.64
Q3 under 54.5	27.5%	27.5%	36.1%	0.76×	3.64
Q3 over 67.5	17.4%	17.8%	13.0%	1.37×	5.62
Q3 under 51.5	17.1%	17.8%	23.9%	0.74×	5.62
Q3 over 68.5	17.6%	17.7%	10.7%	1.65×	5.66
Q3 under 52.5	16.5%	17.7%	27.8%	0.64×	5.66

Q4 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks to win Q4	54.5%	51.4%	46.4%	1.11×	1.94
Dallas Mavericks to win Q4	40.7%	43.1%	48.3%	0.89×	2.32
Q4 tied	4.8%	5.2%	5.3%	0.98×	19.28

Q4 total 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q4 under 66.5	84.2%	82.0%	90.4%	0.91×	1.22
Q4 over 48.5	82.7%	81.9%	75.5%	1.09×	1.22
Q4 under 64.5	81.4%	81.9%	86.3%	0.95×	1.22
Q4 over 50.5	80.0%	76.9%	68.5%	1.12×	1.30
Q4 over 51.5	72.5%	72.3%	64.7%	1.12×	1.38
Q4 under 63.5	74.5%	71.5%	83.7%	0.85×	1.40
Q4 over 53.5	69.0%	67.4%	55.7%	1.21×	1.48
Q4 under 61.5	66.5%	67.4%	77.5%	0.87×	1.48
Q4 over 55.5	60.4%	61.4%	47.1%	1.30×	1.63
Q4 under 59.5	57.8%	58.4%	70.2%	0.83×	1.71
Q4 under 58.5	53.3%	52.5%	66.2%	0.79×	1.91
Q4 over 57.5	51.3%	52.5%	38.1%	1.38×	1.91
Q4 over 56.5	51.0%	52.3%	42.8%	1.22×	1.91
Q4 under 56.5	49.0%	47.7%	57.2%	0.83×	2.10
Q4 under 57.5	48.7%	47.5%	61.9%	0.77×	2.11
Q4 over 58.5	46.7%	47.5%	33.8%	1.41×	2.11
Q4 over 59.5	42.2%	41.6%	29.8%	1.40×	2.40
Q4 under 55.5	39.6%	38.6%	52.9%	0.73×	2.59
Q4 over 61.5	33.5%	32.6%	22.5%	1.45×	3.07
Q4 under 53.5	31.0%	32.6%	44.3%	0.73×	3.07
Q4 over 63.5	25.5%	28.5%	16.3%	1.75×	3.51
Q4 under 51.5	27.5%	27.7%	35.3%	0.78×	3.61
Q4 under 50.5	20.0%	23.1%	31.5%	0.73×	4.33
Q4 over 64.5	18.6%	18.1%	13.7%	1.32×	5.53
Q4 under 48.5	17.3%	18.1%	24.5%	0.74×	5.53
Q4 over 66.5	15.8%	18.0%	9.6%	1.88×	5.56

Team total 54

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks over 112.5	80.4%	80.7%	51.5%	1.57×	1.24
Atlanta Hawks under 132.5	80.3%	80.7%	93.6%	0.86×	1.24
Dallas Mavericks over 106.5	80.5%	80.7%	75.1%	1.07×	1.24
Atlanta Hawks over 108.5	79.7%	78.3%	64.0%	1.22×	1.28
Atlanta Hawks under 128.5	79.6%	78.3%	88.6%	0.88×	1.28
Dallas Mavericks under 126.5	79.7%	75.1%	81.5%	0.92×	1.33
Atlanta Hawks over 111.5	71.9%	71.8%	54.6%	1.32×	1.39
Atlanta Hawks under 129.5	72.4%	70.7%	90.0%	0.79×	1.41
Dallas Mavericks over 109.5	72.8%	70.7%	67.0%	1.06×	1.41
Dallas Mavericks under 123.5	71.8%	70.7%	74.4%	0.95×	1.41
Atlanta Hawks over 115.5	72.6%	70.7%	41.4%	1.71×	1.41
Atlanta Hawks over 113.5	66.1%	66.6%	48.0%	1.39×	1.50
Atlanta Hawks under 127.5	66.4%	66.4%	86.9%	0.76×	1.51
Dallas Mavericks over 111.5	66.9%	66.4%	61.1%	1.09×	1.51
Dallas Mavericks under 121.5	65.9%	66.4%	69.6%	0.95×	1.51
Atlanta Hawks over 117.5	66.6%	66.4%	35.6%	1.86×	1.51
Dallas Mavericks over 113.5	60.5%	61.2%	54.3%	1.13×	1.63
Atlanta Hawks over 119.5	60.2%	61.2%	29.7%	2.06×	1.63
Atlanta Hawks under 125.5	60.0%	57.1%	83.4%	0.69×	1.75
Dallas Mavericks under 119.5	59.5%	57.1%	63.5%	0.90×	1.75
Dallas Mavericks over 115.5	53.9%	52.3%	48.4%	1.08×	1.91
Dallas Mavericks under 117.5	52.8%	52.3%	57.8%	0.90×	1.91
Atlanta Hawks over 121.5	53.5%	52.3%	25.3%	2.07×	1.91
Atlanta Hawks under 123.5	53.3%	52.3%	79.5%	0.66×	1.91
Atlanta Hawks over 122.5	50.1%	52.3%	22.6%	2.31×	1.91
Dallas Mavericks over 116.5	50.5%	52.3%	45.3%	1.15×	1.91
Atlanta Hawks over 118.5	50.1%	52.2%	32.6%	1.60×	1.91
Atlanta Hawks under 118.5	49.9%	47.8%	67.4%	0.71×	2.09
Atlanta Hawks under 122.5	49.9%	47.7%	77.4%	0.62×	2.09
Dallas Mavericks under 116.5	49.5%	47.7%	54.7%	0.87×	2.09
Dallas Mavericks over 117.5	47.2%	47.7%	42.2%	1.13×	2.09
Atlanta Hawks under 121.5	46.5%	47.7%	74.7%	0.64×	2.09
Atlanta Hawks over 123.5	46.7%	47.7%	20.5%	2.33×	2.09
Dallas Mavericks under 115.5	46.1%	47.7%	51.6%	0.93×	2.09
Dallas Mavericks over 119.5	40.5%	42.9%	36.5%	1.17×	2.33
Atlanta Hawks over 125.5	40.0%	42.9%	16.6%	2.58×	2.33
Atlanta Hawks under 119.5	39.8%	38.8%	70.3%	0.55×	2.58
Dallas Mavericks under 113.5	39.5%	38.8%	45.7%	0.85×	2.58
Atlanta Hawks over 127.5	33.6%	33.6%	13.1%	2.56×	2.98
Dallas Mavericks under 111.5	33.1%	33.6%	38.9%	0.86×	2.98
Dallas Mavericks over 121.5	34.1%	33.6%	30.4%	1.10×	2.98
Atlanta Hawks under 117.5	33.4%	33.6%	64.4%	0.52×	2.98
Atlanta Hawks under 113.5	33.9%	33.4%	52.0%	0.64×	2.99
Atlanta Hawks over 129.5	27.6%	29.3%	10.0%	2.94×	3.42
Dallas Mavericks under 109.5	27.2%	29.3%	33.0%	0.89×	3.42
Dallas Mavericks over 123.5	28.2%	29.3%	25.6%	1.14×	3.42
Atlanta Hawks under 115.5	27.4%	29.3%	58.6%	0.50×	3.42
Atlanta Hawks under 111.5	28.1%	28.2%	45.4%	0.62×	3.55
Dallas Mavericks over 126.5	20.3%	24.9%	18.5%	1.35×	4.02
Atlanta Hawks over 128.5	20.4%	21.7%	11.5%	1.90×	4.60
Atlanta Hawks under 108.5	20.3%	21.7%	36.0%	0.60×	4.60
Atlanta Hawks under 112.5	19.6%	19.3%	48.5%	0.40×	5.18
Atlanta Hawks over 132.5	19.7%	19.3%	6.4%	3.03×	5.18
Dallas Mavericks under 106.5	19.5%	19.3%	24.9%	0.78×	5.18

Total points 44

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 214.5 points	86.0%	85.5%	75.1%	1.14×	1.17
Under 259.5 points	86.5%	85.0%	93.6%	0.91×	1.18
Over 219.5 points	85.8%	85.0%	66.1%	1.29×	1.18
Under 254.5 points	79.7%	75.6%	89.9%	0.84×	1.32
Over 224.5 points	78.8%	75.6%	56.5%	1.34×	1.32
Under 249.5 points	71.2%	70.8%	85.3%	0.83×	1.41
Over 229.5 points	70.1%	70.8%	46.7%	1.52×	1.41
Under 246.5 points	65.4%	65.9%	82.0%	0.80×	1.52
Over 227.5 points	65.0%	61.8%	50.6%	1.22×	1.62
Under 241.5 points	64.1%	61.8%	75.5%	0.82×	1.62
Over 232.5 points	64.3%	61.5%	40.6%	1.51×	1.63
Under 244.5 points	61.3%	61.5%	79.5%	0.77×	1.63
Over 234.5 points	60.1%	61.5%	36.7%	1.68×	1.63
Under 242.5 points	57.1%	56.5%	76.8%	0.74×	1.77
Over 236.5 points	55.9%	56.5%	32.7%	1.73×	1.77
Over 231.5 points	56.8%	56.0%	42.6%	1.31×	1.79
Under 237.5 points	55.9%	56.0%	69.3%	0.81×	1.79
Under 240.5 points	52.8%	52.3%	74.0%	0.71×	1.91
Over 238.5 points	51.6%	52.3%	29.1%	1.80×	1.91
Under 239.5 points	50.7%	52.3%	72.5%	0.72×	1.91
Over 233.5 points	52.6%	52.2%	38.6%	1.35×	1.92
Under 235.5 points	51.6%	52.2%	65.3%	0.80×	1.92
Over 235.5 points	48.4%	47.8%	34.7%	1.37×	2.09
Under 233.5 points	47.4%	47.8%	61.4%	0.78×	2.09
Over 239.5 points	49.3%	47.7%	27.5%	1.73×	2.10
Over 240.5 points	47.2%	47.7%	26.0%	1.84×	2.10
Under 238.5 points	48.4%	47.7%	70.9%	0.67×	2.10
Over 237.5 points	44.1%	44.0%	30.7%	1.43×	2.27
Under 231.5 points	43.2%	44.0%	57.4%	0.77×	2.27
Under 236.5 points	44.1%	43.5%	67.3%	0.65×	2.30
Over 242.5 points	42.9%	43.5%	23.2%	1.88×	2.30
Under 234.5 points	39.9%	38.5%	63.3%	0.61×	2.60
Over 244.5 points	38.7%	38.5%	20.5%	1.88×	2.60
Under 232.5 points	35.7%	38.5%	59.4%	0.65×	2.60
Over 241.5 points	35.9%	38.2%	24.5%	1.56×	2.62
Under 227.5 points	35.0%	38.2%	49.4%	0.77×	2.62
Over 246.5 points	34.6%	34.1%	18.0%	1.90×	2.93
Under 229.5 points	29.9%	29.2%	53.3%	0.55×	3.43
Over 249.5 points	28.8%	29.2%	14.7%	1.99×	3.43
Under 224.5 points	21.2%	24.4%	43.5%	0.56×	4.10
Over 254.5 points	20.3%	24.4%	10.1%	2.42×	4.10
Under 219.5 points	14.2%	15.0%	33.9%	0.44×	6.68
Over 259.5 points	13.5%	15.0%	6.4%	2.35×	6.68
Under 214.5 points	14.0%	14.5%	24.9%	0.58×	6.88

Win both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks to win both halves	32.1%	31.2%	17.8%	1.75×	3.20
Dallas Mavericks to win both halves	12.5%	14.0%	25.2%	0.56×	7.12

Winning margin 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta Hawks by 1-5	13.8%	12.3%	12.3%	1.01×	8.11
Atlanta Hawks by 6-10	13.9%	12.3%	12.3%	1.00×	8.11
Dallas Mavericks by 1-5	11.8%	12.3%	12.8%	0.96×	8.11
Atlanta Hawks by 11-15	12.4%	12.3%	8.0%	1.54×	8.11
Atlanta Hawks by 16-20	9.8%	7.5%	4.9%	1.53×	13.40
Dallas Mavericks by 6-10	9.0%	7.5%	13.9%	0.54×	13.40
Atlanta Hawks by 26+	8.8%	7.5%	3.9%	1.93×	13.40
Atlanta Hawks by 21-25	6.9%	7.5%	3.0%	2.45×	13.40
Dallas Mavericks by 11-15	6.2%	7.5%	10.8%	0.69×	13.40
Dallas Mavericks by 16-20	3.7%	2.0%	7.3%	0.28×	49.30
Dallas Mavericks by 21-25	2.0%	2.0%	4.7%	0.43×	49.31
Dallas Mavericks by 26+	1.6%	2.0%	6.2%	0.33×	49.31

Dallas Mavericks v Atlanta Hawks — Prediction, Odds & Stats

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