Dallas Mavericks v Oklahoma City Thunder — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 29 October 2026 · NBA · 2027

NBA results-only Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 03:45 UTC

Dallas Mavericks

01:30 UTC

Oklahoma City Thunder

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Dallas Mavericks win

15.4%

Draw

0.0%

Oklahoma City Thunder win

84.6%

15085

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
nba-normal	15085	108.92–123.34	109-123 0%	49%	0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Oklahoma City Thunder to score 100+	98.0%	94.9%	85.9%	1.11×	1.05
Oklahoma City Thunder to score 110+	88.4%	85.0%	60.9%	1.40×	1.18
Dallas Mavericks to score 100+	78.5%	77.0%	89.3%	0.86×	1.30
Both sides to score 100+	77.3%	76.9%	77.5%	0.99×	1.30
Oklahoma City Thunder to score 120+	63.4%	61.9%	29.7%	2.09×	1.62
Dallas Mavericks to score 110+	47.5%	47.0%	67.0%	0.70×	2.13
Oklahoma City Thunder to score 130+	30.2%	31.3%	10.0%	3.14×	3.20
Dallas Mavericks to score 120+	18.1%	17.6%	36.5%	0.48×	5.69
Dallas Mavericks to score 130+	4.0%	0.4%	12.8%	0.03×	282.58

H1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Oklahoma City Thunder to win H1	73.0%	73.0%	44.1%	1.65×	1.37
Dallas Mavericks to win H1	24.2%	21.4%	52.8%	0.41×	4.67
H1 tied	2.8%	3.9%	3.1%	1.25×	25.87

H1 total 40

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H1 under 128.5	82.1%	83.2%	86.7%	0.96×	1.20
H1 over 104.5	81.8%	83.2%	78.3%	1.06×	1.20
H1 under 129.5	82.8%	82.5%	88.1%	0.94×	1.21
H1 over 105.5	81.6%	82.5%	75.8%	1.09×	1.21
H1 under 124.5	73.0%	74.0%	78.4%	0.94×	1.35
H1 over 108.5	72.7%	74.0%	67.7%	1.09×	1.35
H1 under 125.5	73.8%	73.5%	80.7%	0.91×	1.36
H1 over 109.5	72.4%	73.5%	65.0%	1.13×	1.36
H1 under 121.5	65.0%	68.0%	71.2%	0.96×	1.47
H1 under 122.5	65.8%	67.4%	74.0%	0.91×	1.48
H1 over 111.5	64.6%	63.3%	59.0%	1.07×	1.58
H1 over 112.5	64.2%	62.7%	55.8%	1.12×	1.59
H1 under 120.5	60.0%	58.2%	68.4%	0.85×	1.72
H1 over 114.5	58.3%	58.2%	49.6%	1.17×	1.72
H1 under 119.5	59.2%	58.2%	65.9%	0.88×	1.72
H1 over 113.5	58.8%	58.2%	52.4%	1.11×	1.72
H1 under 118.5	53.9%	52.6%	62.9%	0.84×	1.90
H1 over 116.5	52.2%	52.6%	43.4%	1.21×	1.90
H1 under 117.5	50.9%	52.6%	59.6%	0.88×	1.90
H1 over 115.5	52.8%	52.5%	46.4%	1.13×	1.90
H1 under 115.5	47.2%	47.5%	53.6%	0.89×	2.11
H1 over 117.5	49.1%	47.4%	40.4%	1.17×	2.11
H1 under 116.5	47.8%	47.4%	56.6%	0.84×	2.11
H1 over 118.5	46.1%	47.4%	37.1%	1.28×	2.11
H1 under 113.5	41.2%	41.8%	47.6%	0.88×	2.39
H1 over 119.5	40.8%	41.8%	34.1%	1.23×	2.39
H1 under 114.5	41.7%	41.8%	50.4%	0.83×	2.39
H1 over 120.5	40.0%	41.8%	31.6%	1.32×	2.39
H1 under 112.5	35.8%	37.3%	44.2%	0.84×	2.68
H1 under 111.5	35.4%	36.7%	41.0%	0.89×	2.72
H1 over 122.5	34.2%	32.6%	26.0%	1.25×	3.07
H1 over 121.5	35.0%	32.0%	28.8%	1.11×	3.13
H1 under 109.5	27.6%	26.5%	35.0%	0.76×	3.77
H1 over 125.5	26.2%	26.5%	19.3%	1.37×	3.77
H1 under 108.5	27.3%	26.0%	32.3%	0.81×	3.84
H1 over 124.5	27.0%	26.0%	21.7%	1.20×	3.84
H1 under 105.5	18.4%	17.5%	24.2%	0.72×	5.72
H1 over 129.5	17.2%	17.5%	11.9%	1.47×	5.73
H1 under 104.5	18.2%	16.8%	21.7%	0.77×	5.96
H1 over 128.5	17.9%	16.8%	13.3%	1.26×	5.96

H2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Oklahoma City Thunder to win H2	72.7%	67.6%	44.7%	1.51×	1.48
Dallas Mavericks to win H2	24.4%	26.9%	51.6%	0.52×	3.72
H2 tied	2.9%	3.9%	3.7%	1.06×	25.36

H2 total 40

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H2 under 127.5	83.3%	81.8%	84.9%	0.96×	1.22
H2 over 103.5	81.5%	81.8%	76.2%	1.07×	1.22
H2 under 126.5	82.6%	81.5%	83.2%	0.98×	1.23
H2 over 102.5	81.7%	81.5%	78.5%	1.04×	1.23
H2 under 122.5	73.7%	72.5%	74.4%	0.97×	1.38
H2 over 106.5	72.4%	72.5%	68.8%	1.05×	1.38
H2 under 123.5	74.4%	72.2%	76.9%	0.94×	1.39
H2 over 107.5	72.1%	72.2%	66.2%	1.09×	1.39
H2 under 120.5	66.4%	66.4%	69.3%	0.96×	1.51
H2 under 119.5	65.6%	64.4%	66.4%	0.97×	1.55
H2 over 109.5	64.3%	62.6%	60.9%	1.03×	1.60
H2 over 110.5	63.8%	61.6%	58.1%	1.06×	1.62
H2 under 118.5	60.6%	61.6%	63.6%	0.97×	1.62
H2 under 117.5	59.8%	58.0%	61.1%	0.95×	1.72
H2 over 111.5	58.4%	58.0%	55.3%	1.05×	1.72
H2 over 112.5	57.8%	57.3%	52.6%	1.09×	1.74
H2 under 116.5	54.5%	52.4%	58.1%	0.90×	1.91
H2 over 114.5	51.7%	52.4%	47.5%	1.10×	1.91
H2 under 115.5	51.4%	52.4%	55.4%	0.95×	1.91
H2 over 113.5	52.3%	52.0%	49.9%	1.04×	1.92
H2 under 113.5	47.7%	48.0%	50.1%	0.96×	2.09
H2 under 114.5	48.3%	47.6%	52.5%	0.91×	2.10
H2 over 115.5	48.6%	47.6%	44.6%	1.07×	2.10
H2 over 116.5	45.5%	47.6%	41.9%	1.14×	2.10
H2 under 112.5	42.2%	42.7%	47.4%	0.90×	2.34
H2 under 111.5	41.6%	42.0%	44.7%	0.94×	2.38
H2 over 117.5	40.2%	42.0%	38.9%	1.08×	2.38
H2 over 118.5	39.4%	38.4%	36.4%	1.05×	2.61
H2 under 110.5	36.2%	38.4%	41.9%	0.92×	2.61
H2 under 109.5	35.7%	37.4%	39.1%	0.96×	2.67
H2 over 119.5	34.4%	35.6%	33.6%	1.06×	2.81
H2 over 120.5	33.6%	33.6%	30.7%	1.10×	2.97
H2 under 107.5	27.9%	27.8%	33.8%	0.82×	3.59
H2 over 123.5	25.6%	27.8%	23.1%	1.20×	3.59
H2 under 106.5	27.6%	27.5%	31.2%	0.88×	3.63
H2 over 122.5	26.3%	27.5%	25.6%	1.08×	3.64
H2 under 102.5	18.3%	18.5%	21.5%	0.86×	5.41
H2 over 126.5	17.4%	18.5%	16.8%	1.10×	5.41
H2 under 103.5	18.5%	18.2%	23.8%	0.76×	5.50
H2 over 127.5	16.7%	18.2%	15.1%	1.20×	5.50

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Oklahoma City Thunder leading at half time	73.0%	73.5%	44.1%	1.66×	1.36
Dallas Mavericks leading at half time	24.2%	21.0%	52.8%	0.40×	4.77
Level at half time	2.8%	3.8%	3.1%	1.22×	26.42

Handicap 60

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Oklahoma City Thunder +10.5	95.6%	97.4%	71.0%	1.37×	1.03
Oklahoma City Thunder +12.5	96.8%	97.4%	76.0%	1.28×	1.03
Oklahoma City Thunder +14.5	97.7%	97.4%	80.1%	1.22×	1.03
Oklahoma City Thunder +16.5	98.3%	97.4%	83.5%	1.17×	1.03
Oklahoma City Thunder +18.5	98.8%	97.4%	86.4%	1.13×	1.03
Oklahoma City Thunder +20.5	99.2%	97.4%	89.1%	1.09×	1.03
Oklahoma City Thunder +8.5	94.2%	91.1%	65.9%	1.38×	1.10
Oklahoma City Thunder +9.5	95.0%	91.1%	68.7%	1.33×	1.10
Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5	92.4%	91.1%	60.0%	1.52×	1.10
Oklahoma City Thunder +7.5	93.4%	91.1%	63.0%	1.45×	1.10
Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5	90.2%	91.1%	54.1%	1.69×	1.10
Oklahoma City Thunder +5.5	91.4%	91.1%	57.1%	1.60×	1.10
Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5	89.0%	85.9%	51.6%	1.66×	1.16
Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5	87.6%	85.9%	49.1%	1.75×	1.16
Oklahoma City Thunder +1.5	86.2%	85.9%	46.3%	1.85×	1.16
Oklahoma City Thunder −1.5	82.7%	81.1%	42.1%	1.92×	1.23
Oklahoma City Thunder −2.5	80.8%	81.1%	39.5%	2.05×	1.23
Oklahoma City Thunder −3.5	78.8%	76.5%	36.9%	2.07×	1.31
Oklahoma City Thunder −4.5	76.6%	76.5%	34.3%	2.23×	1.31
Oklahoma City Thunder −5.5	74.3%	71.6%	32.0%	2.24×	1.40
Oklahoma City Thunder −6.5	72.0%	71.6%	29.4%	2.44×	1.40
Oklahoma City Thunder −7.5	69.5%	66.7%	27.0%	2.47×	1.50
Oklahoma City Thunder −8.5	67.0%	66.7%	24.3%	2.74×	1.50
Dallas Mavericks +20.5	65.7%	66.7%	93.1%	0.72×	1.50
Oklahoma City Thunder −9.5	64.4%	61.9%	21.9%	2.83×	1.62
Oklahoma City Thunder −10.5	61.7%	61.9%	19.7%	3.14×	1.62
Dallas Mavericks +18.5	60.4%	61.9%	91.5%	0.68×	1.62
Oklahoma City Thunder −12.5	56.2%	57.1%	16.1%	3.53×	1.75
Dallas Mavericks +16.5	54.9%	52.4%	89.7%	0.58×	1.91
Oklahoma City Thunder −14.5	50.6%	52.4%	13.0%	4.03×	1.91
Dallas Mavericks +14.5	49.4%	47.6%	87.0%	0.55×	2.10
Oklahoma City Thunder −16.5	45.1%	47.6%	10.3%	4.61×	2.10
Dallas Mavericks +12.5	43.8%	42.9%	83.9%	0.51×	2.33
Oklahoma City Thunder −18.5	39.6%	38.1%	8.5%	4.47×	2.63
Dallas Mavericks +10.5	38.3%	38.1%	80.3%	0.47×	2.63
Dallas Mavericks +9.5	35.6%	38.1%	78.1%	0.49×	2.63
Oklahoma City Thunder −20.5	34.3%	33.3%	6.9%	4.83×	3.01
Dallas Mavericks +8.5	33.0%	33.3%	75.7%	0.44×	3.01
Dallas Mavericks +7.5	30.5%	33.3%	73.0%	0.46×	3.01
Dallas Mavericks +6.5	28.0%	28.4%	70.6%	0.40×	3.53
Dallas Mavericks +5.5	25.7%	28.4%	68.0%	0.42×	3.53
Dallas Mavericks +4.5	23.4%	23.5%	65.7%	0.36×	4.25
Dallas Mavericks +3.5	21.2%	23.5%	63.1%	0.37×	4.25
Dallas Mavericks +2.5	19.2%	18.9%	60.5%	0.31×	5.29
Dallas Mavericks +1.5	17.3%	18.9%	57.9%	0.33×	5.29
Dallas Mavericks −1.5	13.8%	14.1%	53.7%	0.26×	7.09
Dallas Mavericks −2.5	12.4%	14.1%	50.9%	0.28×	7.09
Dallas Mavericks −3.5	11.0%	14.1%	48.4%	0.29×	7.09
Dallas Mavericks −4.5	9.8%	8.9%	46.0%	0.19×	11.25
Dallas Mavericks −5.5	8.6%	8.9%	42.9%	0.21×	11.25
Dallas Mavericks −6.5	7.6%	8.9%	40.0%	0.22×	11.25
Dallas Mavericks −7.5	6.6%	8.9%	37.0%	0.24×	11.25
Dallas Mavericks −8.5	5.8%	8.9%	34.1%	0.26×	11.25
Dallas Mavericks −9.5	5.0%	8.9%	31.3%	0.28×	11.25
Dallas Mavericks −10.5	4.4%	2.6%	29.0%	0.09×	38.72
Dallas Mavericks −12.5	3.2%	2.6%	24.0%	0.11×	38.73
Dallas Mavericks −14.5	2.3%	2.6%	19.9%	0.13×	38.73
Dallas Mavericks −16.5	1.7%	2.6%	16.5%	0.16×	38.73
Dallas Mavericks −18.5	1.2%	2.6%	13.6%	0.19×	38.74
Dallas Mavericks −20.5	0.8%	2.6%	10.9%	0.24×	38.74

Highest scoring half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	56.8%	52.6%	53.5%	0.98×	1.90
2nd half highest scoring	43.2%	47.4%	46.5%	1.02×	2.11

Highest scoring quarter 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 highest scoring	28.3%	27.4%	29.2%	0.94×	3.65
Q3 highest scoring	28.0%	27.4%	27.5%	1.00×	3.65
Q2 highest scoring	26.6%	27.4%	26.3%	1.04×	3.65
Q4 highest scoring	17.1%	18.3%	17.0%	1.08×	5.46

HT/FT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Oklahoma City Thunder at HT / Oklahoma City Thunder at FT	68.2%	68.3%	30.9%	2.21×	1.47
Dallas Mavericks at HT / Oklahoma City Thunder at FT	14.2%	12.2%	12.0%	1.02×	8.17
Dallas Mavericks at HT / Dallas Mavericks at FT	10.0%	8.3%	40.8%	0.20×	12.08
Oklahoma City Thunder at HT / Dallas Mavericks at FT	4.8%	2.1%	13.3%	0.16×	47.71
Level at HT / Oklahoma City Thunder at FT	2.2%	2.1%	1.4%	1.50×	47.75
Level at HT / Dallas Mavericks at FT	0.6%	2.1%	1.7%	1.22×	47.78

Moneyline 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Oklahoma City Thunder to win	84.6%	80.9%	44.3%	1.83×	1.24
Dallas Mavericks to win	15.4%	19.1%	55.7%	0.34×	5.25

Odd/Even 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Dallas Mavericks even	50.0%	50.5%	49.7%	1.02×	1.98
Oklahoma City Thunder odd	50.0%	50.5%	49.7%	1.02×	1.98
Total points odd	50.9%	50.5%	51.0%	0.99×	1.98
Dallas Mavericks odd	50.0%	49.5%	50.3%	0.98×	2.02
Oklahoma City Thunder even	50.0%	49.5%	50.3%	0.98×	2.02
Total points even	49.1%	49.5%	49.0%	1.01×	2.02

Overtime 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No overtime	95.8%	97.0%	94.8%	1.02×	1.03
Match to go to overtime	4.2%	3.0%	5.2%	0.58×	33.38

Q1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Oklahoma City Thunder to win Q1	65.1%	72.2%	44.1%	1.64×	1.39
Dallas Mavericks to win Q1	30.6%	30.3%	51.3%	0.59×	3.30
Q1 tied	4.3%	4.2%	4.6%	0.90×	23.96

Q1 total 32

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 under 66.5	82.9%	83.2%	86.1%	0.97×	1.20
Q1 over 50.5	82.1%	83.2%	79.4%	1.05×	1.20
Q1 under 67.5	84.8%	82.8%	88.8%	0.93×	1.21
Q1 over 51.5	80.4%	82.8%	76.0%	1.09×	1.21
Q1 under 64.5	75.0%	76.9%	80.1%	0.96×	1.30
Q1 under 63.5	72.6%	73.1%	76.8%	0.95×	1.37
Q1 over 53.5	71.5%	73.1%	68.2%	1.07×	1.37
Q1 over 54.5	69.2%	67.6%	63.3%	1.07×	1.48
Q1 under 62.5	67.0%	67.6%	72.9%	0.93×	1.48
Q1 under 61.5	64.3%	62.3%	68.5%	0.91×	1.61
Q1 over 55.5	63.1%	62.3%	59.2%	1.05×	1.61
Q1 over 56.5	60.5%	61.7%	54.6%	1.13×	1.62
Q1 under 60.5	58.1%	58.6%	64.5%	0.91×	1.71
Q1 over 57.5	54.0%	52.7%	49.6%	1.06×	1.90
Q1 under 59.5	53.5%	52.7%	60.0%	0.88×	1.90
Q1 over 58.5	51.2%	52.7%	44.3%	1.19×	1.90
Q1 under 58.5	48.8%	47.3%	55.7%	0.85×	2.11
Q1 over 59.5	46.5%	47.3%	40.0%	1.18×	2.11
Q1 under 57.5	46.0%	47.3%	50.4%	0.94×	2.11
Q1 over 60.5	41.9%	41.4%	35.5%	1.17×	2.42
Q1 under 56.5	39.5%	38.3%	45.4%	0.84×	2.61
Q1 under 55.5	36.9%	37.7%	40.8%	0.92×	2.65
Q1 over 61.5	35.7%	37.7%	31.5%	1.20×	2.65
Q1 over 62.5	33.0%	32.4%	27.1%	1.20×	3.08
Q1 under 54.5	30.8%	32.4%	36.7%	0.88×	3.08
Q1 under 53.5	28.5%	26.9%	31.8%	0.85×	3.72
Q1 over 63.5	27.4%	26.9%	23.2%	1.16×	3.72
Q1 over 64.5	25.0%	23.1%	19.9%	1.16×	4.33
Q1 under 51.5	19.6%	17.2%	24.0%	0.71×	5.82
Q1 over 67.5	15.2%	17.2%	11.2%	1.53×	5.83
Q1 under 50.5	17.9%	16.8%	20.6%	0.82×	5.95
Q1 over 66.5	17.1%	16.8%	13.9%	1.21×	5.95

Q2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Oklahoma City Thunder to win Q2	64.9%	61.9%	46.2%	1.34×	1.61
Dallas Mavericks to win Q2	30.8%	31.8%	49.3%	0.64×	3.15
Q2 tied	4.3%	4.4%	4.5%	0.98×	22.90

Q2 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q2 under 66.5	82.7%	83.0%	86.5%	0.96×	1.21
Q2 over 50.5	82.4%	83.0%	78.1%	1.06×	1.21
Q2 under 63.5	72.2%	72.0%	77.5%	0.93×	1.39
Q2 over 53.5	71.9%	72.0%	65.8%	1.09×	1.39
Q2 under 61.5	63.9%	60.7%	70.4%	0.86×	1.65
Q2 over 55.5	63.5%	60.7%	56.3%	1.08×	1.65
Q2 under 59.5	54.9%	52.7%	61.9%	0.85×	1.90
Q2 over 57.5	54.5%	52.7%	47.3%	1.11×	1.90
Q2 under 58.5	50.2%	52.7%	57.3%	0.92×	1.90
Q2 over 58.5	49.8%	47.3%	42.7%	1.11×	2.11
Q2 under 57.5	45.5%	47.3%	52.7%	0.90×	2.11
Q2 over 59.5	45.2%	47.3%	38.1%	1.24×	2.11
Q2 under 55.5	36.5%	39.3%	43.7%	0.90×	2.55
Q2 over 61.5	36.1%	39.3%	29.6%	1.33×	2.55
Q2 under 53.5	28.1%	28.0%	34.2%	0.82×	3.57
Q2 over 63.5	27.8%	28.0%	22.5%	1.25×	3.57
Q2 under 50.5	17.6%	17.0%	21.9%	0.78×	5.88
Q2 over 66.5	17.3%	17.0%	13.5%	1.26×	5.88

Q3 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Oklahoma City Thunder to win Q3	64.9%	60.9%	44.3%	1.37×	1.64
Dallas Mavericks to win Q3	30.8%	33.7%	50.9%	0.66×	2.96
Q3 tied	4.3%	4.3%	4.9%	0.88×	23.44

Q3 total 32

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q3 under 67.5	84.6%	82.3%	87.0%	0.95×	1.22
Q3 over 51.5	81.1%	82.3%	76.1%	1.08×	1.22
Q3 over 50.5	82.8%	82.2%	79.7%	1.03×	1.22
Q3 under 66.5	82.7%	82.2%	84.7%	0.97×	1.22
Q3 over 53.5	72.4%	72.5%	68.3%	1.06×	1.38
Q3 under 63.5	72.2%	72.5%	75.9%	0.95×	1.38
Q3 under 64.5	74.6%	71.8%	79.2%	0.91×	1.39
Q3 over 54.5	70.1%	71.8%	63.9%	1.12×	1.39
Q3 under 62.5	66.5%	67.8%	71.9%	0.94×	1.48
Q3 over 55.5	64.0%	62.6%	59.9%	1.05×	1.60
Q3 under 61.5	63.7%	62.6%	67.7%	0.92×	1.60
Q3 over 56.5	61.3%	61.9%	55.0%	1.13×	1.61
Q3 under 60.5	57.4%	58.4%	63.5%	0.92×	1.71
Q3 over 57.5	54.8%	52.6%	50.2%	1.05×	1.90
Q3 under 59.5	52.7%	52.3%	59.0%	0.89×	1.91
Q3 over 58.5	52.0%	52.3%	45.2%	1.16×	1.91
Q3 under 58.5	48.0%	47.7%	54.8%	0.87×	2.10
Q3 over 59.5	47.3%	47.7%	41.0%	1.16×	2.10
Q3 under 57.5	45.2%	47.4%	49.8%	0.95×	2.11
Q3 over 60.5	42.6%	41.6%	36.5%	1.14×	2.40
Q3 under 56.5	38.7%	38.1%	45.0%	0.85×	2.63
Q3 over 61.5	36.3%	37.4%	32.3%	1.16×	2.67
Q3 under 55.5	36.0%	37.4%	40.1%	0.93×	2.67
Q3 over 62.5	33.5%	32.2%	28.1%	1.15×	3.10
Q3 under 54.5	29.9%	28.2%	36.1%	0.78×	3.55
Q3 over 64.5	25.4%	28.2%	20.8%	1.35×	3.55
Q3 over 63.5	27.8%	27.5%	24.1%	1.14×	3.64
Q3 under 53.5	27.6%	27.5%	31.7%	0.87×	3.64
Q3 over 66.5	17.3%	17.8%	15.3%	1.16×	5.62
Q3 under 50.5	17.2%	17.8%	20.3%	0.88×	5.62
Q3 under 51.5	18.9%	17.7%	23.9%	0.74×	5.66
Q3 over 67.5	15.4%	17.7%	13.0%	1.36×	5.66

Q4 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Oklahoma City Thunder to win Q4	64.6%	57.9%	46.4%	1.25×	1.73
Dallas Mavericks to win Q4	30.9%	37.3%	48.3%	0.77×	2.68
Q4 tied	4.5%	5.2%	5.3%	0.97×	19.29

Q4 total 32

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q4 under 64.5	83.3%	82.0%	86.3%	0.95×	1.22
Q4 over 48.5	81.0%	82.0%	75.5%	1.09×	1.22
Q4 over 47.5	82.7%	81.9%	79.0%	1.04×	1.22
Q4 under 63.5	81.3%	81.9%	83.7%	0.98×	1.22
Q4 over 50.5	72.6%	72.3%	68.5%	1.05×	1.38
Q4 under 60.5	70.8%	72.3%	74.2%	0.97×	1.38
Q4 under 61.5	73.3%	71.5%	77.5%	0.92×	1.40
Q4 over 51.5	70.3%	71.5%	64.7%	1.11×	1.40
Q4 under 59.5	65.2%	67.4%	70.2%	0.96×	1.48
Q4 over 52.5	64.5%	61.7%	60.4%	1.02×	1.62
Q4 under 58.5	62.4%	61.6%	66.2%	0.93×	1.62
Q4 over 53.5	61.8%	61.4%	55.7%	1.10×	1.63
Q4 under 57.5	56.4%	58.4%	61.9%	0.94×	1.71
Q4 over 54.5	55.6%	57.4%	51.4%	1.12×	1.74
Q4 over 55.5	52.8%	52.5%	47.1%	1.11×	1.91
Q4 under 56.5	51.8%	52.5%	57.2%	0.92×	1.91
Q4 over 56.5	48.2%	47.5%	42.8%	1.11×	2.11
Q4 under 55.5	47.2%	47.5%	52.9%	0.90×	2.11
Q4 under 54.5	44.4%	42.6%	48.6%	0.88×	2.35
Q4 over 57.5	43.6%	41.6%	38.1%	1.09×	2.40
Q4 under 53.5	38.2%	38.6%	44.3%	0.87×	2.59
Q4 over 58.5	37.6%	38.4%	33.8%	1.13×	2.61
Q4 under 52.5	35.5%	38.3%	39.6%	0.97×	2.61
Q4 over 59.5	34.8%	32.6%	29.8%	1.09×	3.07
Q4 under 51.5	29.7%	28.5%	35.3%	0.81×	3.51
Q4 over 61.5	26.7%	28.5%	22.5%	1.27×	3.51
Q4 over 60.5	29.2%	27.7%	25.8%	1.08×	3.61
Q4 under 50.5	27.4%	27.7%	31.5%	0.88×	3.61
Q4 over 63.5	18.7%	18.1%	16.3%	1.11×	5.53
Q4 under 47.5	17.3%	18.1%	21.0%	0.86×	5.53
Q4 under 48.5	19.0%	18.0%	24.5%	0.73×	5.56
Q4 over 64.5	16.7%	18.0%	13.7%	1.31×	5.56

Team total 62

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Dallas Mavericks under 119.5	81.9%	80.7%	63.5%	1.27×	1.24
Oklahoma City Thunder over 113.5	80.4%	80.7%	48.0%	1.68×	1.24
Oklahoma City Thunder under 133.5	80.6%	80.7%	94.6%	0.85×	1.24
Oklahoma City Thunder under 129.5	80.3%	80.3%	90.0%	0.89×	1.25
Dallas Mavericks under 121.5	79.8%	78.3%	69.6%	1.13×	1.28
Dallas Mavericks over 101.5	79.5%	78.3%	86.0%	0.91×	1.28
Oklahoma City Thunder over 109.5	79.1%	78.3%	60.9%	1.28×	1.28
Dallas Mavericks over 99.5	78.5%	75.1%	89.3%	0.84×	1.33
Dallas Mavericks under 118.5	72.1%	71.8%	60.3%	1.19×	1.39
Oklahoma City Thunder over 112.5	71.3%	71.8%	51.5%	1.40×	1.39
Dallas Mavericks under 116.5	74.4%	70.7%	54.7%	1.29×	1.41
Oklahoma City Thunder under 130.5	72.7%	70.7%	91.5%	0.77×	1.41
Oklahoma City Thunder over 116.5	72.5%	70.7%	38.5%	1.84×	1.41
Dallas Mavericks over 102.5	70.3%	70.7%	84.2%	0.84×	1.41
Oklahoma City Thunder over 114.5	65.4%	66.6%	44.5%	1.50×	1.50
Dallas Mavericks under 114.5	68.7%	66.4%	48.6%	1.37×	1.51
Oklahoma City Thunder under 128.5	66.7%	66.4%	88.6%	0.75×	1.51
Oklahoma City Thunder over 118.5	66.5%	66.4%	32.6%	2.04×	1.51
Dallas Mavericks over 104.5	64.2%	61.2%	79.8%	0.77×	1.63
Dallas Mavericks under 112.5	62.4%	61.2%	42.3%	1.45×	1.63
Oklahoma City Thunder over 120.5	60.1%	61.2%	27.3%	2.24×	1.63
Oklahoma City Thunder under 126.5	60.2%	61.2%	85.3%	0.72×	1.63
Dallas Mavericks over 106.5	57.7%	57.1%	75.1%	0.76×	1.75
Dallas Mavericks under 110.5	55.8%	57.1%	35.9%	1.59×	1.75
Dallas Mavericks under 109.5	52.5%	52.3%	33.0%	1.58×	1.91
Oklahoma City Thunder over 122.5	53.4%	52.3%	22.6%	2.31×	1.91
Oklahoma City Thunder under 124.5	53.5%	52.3%	81.4%	0.64×	1.91
Oklahoma City Thunder under 123.5	50.1%	52.3%	79.5%	0.66×	1.91
Dallas Mavericks over 108.5	50.9%	52.3%	69.9%	0.75×	1.91
Oklahoma City Thunder under 119.5	50.8%	52.2%	70.3%	0.74×	1.91
Dallas Mavericks under 111.5	50.3%	52.2%	38.9%	1.34×	1.91
Dallas Mavericks over 111.5	49.7%	47.8%	61.1%	0.78×	2.09
Oklahoma City Thunder over 119.5	49.2%	47.8%	29.7%	1.61×	2.09
Oklahoma City Thunder over 123.5	49.9%	47.7%	20.5%	2.33×	2.09
Dallas Mavericks under 108.5	49.1%	47.7%	30.1%	1.58×	2.09
Dallas Mavericks over 109.5	47.5%	47.7%	67.0%	0.71×	2.09
Oklahoma City Thunder under 122.5	46.7%	47.7%	77.4%	0.62×	2.09
Oklahoma City Thunder over 124.5	46.5%	47.7%	18.6%	2.57×	2.09
Dallas Mavericks over 110.5	44.2%	42.9%	64.1%	0.67×	2.33
Dallas Mavericks under 106.5	42.3%	42.9%	24.9%	1.72×	2.33
Oklahoma City Thunder under 120.5	39.9%	38.8%	72.7%	0.53×	2.58
Oklahoma City Thunder over 126.5	39.8%	38.8%	14.7%	2.64×	2.58
Dallas Mavericks over 112.5	37.6%	38.8%	57.7%	0.67×	2.58
Dallas Mavericks under 104.5	35.8%	38.8%	20.2%	1.92×	2.58
Oklahoma City Thunder over 128.5	33.3%	33.6%	11.5%	2.94×	2.98
Oklahoma City Thunder under 118.5	33.5%	33.6%	67.4%	0.50×	2.98
Dallas Mavericks over 114.5	31.3%	33.6%	51.4%	0.65×	2.98
Oklahoma City Thunder under 114.5	34.6%	33.4%	55.5%	0.60×	2.99
Dallas Mavericks under 102.5	29.7%	29.3%	15.8%	1.85×	3.42
Oklahoma City Thunder over 130.5	27.3%	29.3%	8.5%	3.45×	3.42
Oklahoma City Thunder under 116.5	27.5%	29.3%	61.5%	0.48×	3.42
Dallas Mavericks over 116.5	25.6%	29.3%	45.3%	0.65×	3.42
Oklahoma City Thunder under 112.5	28.7%	28.2%	48.5%	0.58×	3.55
Dallas Mavericks over 118.5	27.9%	28.2%	39.7%	0.71×	3.55
Dallas Mavericks under 99.5	21.5%	24.9%	10.7%	2.31×	4.02
Oklahoma City Thunder under 109.5	20.9%	21.7%	39.1%	0.56×	4.60
Dallas Mavericks under 101.5	20.5%	21.7%	14.0%	1.55×	4.60
Dallas Mavericks over 121.5	20.2%	21.7%	30.4%	0.71×	4.61
Oklahoma City Thunder over 129.5	19.7%	19.7%	10.0%	1.98×	5.07
Oklahoma City Thunder under 113.5	19.6%	19.3%	52.0%	0.37×	5.18
Oklahoma City Thunder over 133.5	19.4%	19.3%	5.4%	3.57×	5.18
Dallas Mavericks over 119.5	18.1%	19.3%	36.5%	0.53×	5.18

Total points 46

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 210.5 points	85.9%	85.5%	81.4%	1.05×	1.17
Under 250.5 points	85.4%	85.5%	86.1%	0.99×	1.17
Under 252.5 points	86.4%	85.0%	88.1%	0.97×	1.18
Over 212.5 points	85.9%	85.0%	77.8%	1.09×	1.18
Over 215.5 points	79.1%	78.1%	73.4%	1.06×	1.28
Under 245.5 points	78.5%	78.1%	80.9%	0.97×	1.28
Under 247.5 points	79.7%	75.6%	83.3%	0.91×	1.32
Over 217.5 points	78.9%	75.6%	69.6%	1.09×	1.32
Over 220.5 points	70.7%	71.0%	64.2%	1.11×	1.41
Under 242.5 points	71.1%	70.8%	76.8%	0.92×	1.41
Over 222.5 points	70.2%	70.8%	60.4%	1.17×	1.41
Under 240.5 points	69.9%	66.6%	74.0%	0.90×	1.50
Under 239.5 points	65.3%	65.9%	72.5%	0.91×	1.52
Over 223.5 points	64.9%	61.8%	58.3%	1.06×	1.62
Over 225.5 points	64.3%	61.5%	54.7%	1.12×	1.63
Under 237.5 points	61.2%	61.5%	69.3%	0.89×	1.63
Over 227.5 points	60.2%	61.5%	50.6%	1.21×	1.63
Under 235.5 points	57.0%	56.5%	65.3%	0.87×	1.77
Over 229.5 points	55.9%	56.5%	46.7%	1.21×	1.77
Over 231.5 points	51.6%	52.3%	42.6%	1.23×	1.91
Under 233.5 points	52.7%	52.3%	61.4%	0.85×	1.91
Under 232.5 points	50.5%	52.3%	59.4%	0.88×	1.91
Over 230.5 points	50.4%	52.2%	44.6%	1.17×	1.92
Under 230.5 points	49.6%	47.8%	55.4%	0.86×	2.09
Over 232.5 points	49.5%	47.7%	40.6%	1.17×	2.10
Under 231.5 points	48.4%	47.7%	57.4%	0.83×	2.10
Over 233.5 points	47.3%	47.7%	38.6%	1.23×	2.10
Under 229.5 points	44.1%	43.5%	53.3%	0.82×	2.30
Over 235.5 points	43.0%	43.5%	34.7%	1.25×	2.30
Under 227.5 points	39.8%	38.5%	49.4%	0.78×	2.60
Over 237.5 points	38.8%	38.5%	30.7%	1.25×	2.60
Under 225.5 points	35.7%	38.5%	45.3%	0.85×	2.60
Under 223.5 points	35.1%	38.2%	41.7%	0.92×	2.62
Over 239.5 points	34.7%	34.1%	27.5%	1.24×	2.93
Over 240.5 points	30.1%	33.4%	26.0%	1.29×	3.00
Under 222.5 points	29.8%	29.2%	39.6%	0.74×	3.43
Over 242.5 points	28.9%	29.2%	23.2%	1.26×	3.43
Under 220.5 points	29.3%	29.0%	35.8%	0.81×	3.45
Under 217.5 points	21.1%	24.4%	30.4%	0.80×	4.10
Over 247.5 points	20.3%	24.4%	16.7%	1.46×	4.10
Over 245.5 points	21.5%	21.9%	19.1%	1.14×	4.57
Under 215.5 points	20.9%	21.9%	26.6%	0.82×	4.57
Under 212.5 points	14.1%	15.0%	22.2%	0.67×	6.68
Over 252.5 points	13.6%	15.0%	11.9%	1.26×	6.68
Over 250.5 points	14.6%	14.5%	13.9%	1.05×	6.88
Under 210.5 points	14.1%	14.5%	18.6%	0.78×	6.88

Win both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Oklahoma City Thunder to win both halves	51.5%	50.4%	17.8%	2.82×	1.99
Dallas Mavericks to win both halves	4.5%	3.0%	25.2%	0.12×	33.56

Winning margin 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Oklahoma City Thunder by 26+	22.6%	24.0%	3.9%	6.22×	4.17
Oklahoma City Thunder by 11-15	13.9%	12.3%	8.0%	1.54×	8.11
Oklahoma City Thunder by 16-20	13.5%	12.3%	4.9%	2.54×	8.11
Oklahoma City Thunder by 6-10	12.6%	12.3%	12.3%	1.00×	8.11
Oklahoma City Thunder by 21-25	11.7%	12.3%	3.0%	4.05×	8.11
Oklahoma City Thunder by 1-5	10.2%	12.3%	12.3%	1.01×	8.11
Dallas Mavericks by 1-5	6.8%	7.5%	12.8%	0.58×	13.40
Dallas Mavericks by 6-10	4.3%	2.0%	13.9%	0.15×	49.29
Dallas Mavericks by 11-15	2.4%	2.0%	10.8%	0.19×	49.31
Dallas Mavericks by 16-20	1.2%	2.0%	7.3%	0.28×	49.32
Dallas Mavericks by 21-25	0.5%	2.0%	4.7%	0.43×	49.32
Dallas Mavericks by 26+	0.3%	2.0%	6.2%	0.33×	49.33

Dallas Mavericks v Oklahoma City Thunder — Prediction, Odds & Stats

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