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Dayton Flyers v Siena Saints — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 10 November 2026 · NCAAB · 2027

NCAAB results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Dayton Flyers win
83.7%
Draw
0.0%
Siena Saints win
16.3%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 72.78–62.52 73-63 0% 50% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Siena Saints to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 1.1% 0.33× 283.36
Siena Saints to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1.95× 283.36
Siena Saints to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 12.98× 283.36
Siena Saints to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 38.95× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.87× 283.36
Dayton Flyers to score 100+ 0.3% 0.4% 3.4% 0.10× 283.29
Dayton Flyers to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% 0.52× 283.35
Dayton Flyers to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.87× 283.36
Dayton Flyers to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 19.47× 283.36
H1 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dayton Flyers to win H1 69.6% 68.3% 57.9% 1.18× 1.46
Dayton Flyers to win H1 69.5% 68.3% 57.9% 1.18× 1.46
Siena Saints to win H1 26.6% 26.5% 38.2% 0.69× 3.77
Siena Saints to win H1 26.5% 26.5% 38.2% 0.69× 3.77
H1 tied 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.86
H1 tied 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.86
H1 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 76.5 87.9% 87.7% 75.5% 1.16× 1.14
H1 over 52.5 86.5% 87.7% 93.8% 0.94× 1.14
H1 under 72.5 79.4% 77.4% 63.3% 1.22× 1.29
H1 under 72.5 78.6% 77.4% 63.3% 1.22× 1.29
H1 over 56.5 77.2% 77.4% 87.5% 0.89× 1.29
H1 over 56.5 76.4% 77.4% 87.5% 0.89× 1.29
H1 under 69.5 70.1% 73.5% 53.1% 1.38× 1.36
H1 under 69.5 69.5% 67.4% 53.1% 1.27× 1.48
H1 over 59.5 67.3% 67.4% 80.7% 0.84× 1.48
H1 over 59.5 66.8% 67.4% 80.7% 0.84× 1.48
H1 under 67.5 63.0% 62.7% 45.6% 1.38× 1.59
H1 under 67.5 62.6% 62.7% 45.6% 1.38× 1.59
H1 over 61.5 60.0% 58.2% 74.9% 0.78× 1.72
H1 over 61.5 59.7% 58.2% 74.9% 0.78× 1.72
H1 under 65.5 55.5% 58.2% 38.1% 1.53× 1.72
H1 under 65.5 55.3% 58.2% 38.1% 1.53× 1.72
H1 over 63.5 52.3% 52.6% 69.0% 0.76× 1.90
H1 over 63.5 52.2% 52.6% 69.0% 0.76× 1.90
H1 under 64.5 51.6% 52.6% 34.8% 1.52× 1.90
H1 under 64.5 51.5% 52.6% 34.8% 1.52× 1.90
H1 over 64.5 48.4% 47.4% 65.3% 0.73× 2.11
H1 over 64.5 48.5% 47.4% 65.3% 0.73× 2.11
H1 under 63.5 47.7% 47.4% 31.0% 1.53× 2.11
H1 under 63.5 47.8% 47.4% 31.0% 1.53× 2.11
H1 over 65.5 44.5% 41.8% 61.9% 0.68× 2.39
H1 over 65.5 44.7% 41.8% 61.9% 0.68× 2.39
H1 under 61.5 40.0% 41.8% 25.1% 1.66× 2.39
H1 under 61.5 40.3% 41.8% 25.1% 1.66× 2.39
H1 over 67.5 37.0% 37.3% 54.4% 0.69× 2.68
H1 over 67.5 37.4% 37.3% 54.4% 0.69× 2.68
H1 under 59.5 33.2% 32.6% 19.3% 1.69× 3.07
H1 under 59.5 32.7% 32.6% 19.3% 1.69× 3.07
H1 over 69.5 30.5% 32.6% 46.9% 0.69× 3.07
H1 over 69.5 29.9% 26.5% 46.9% 0.57× 3.77
H1 under 56.5 23.6% 22.6% 12.5% 1.80× 4.43
H1 under 56.5 22.8% 22.6% 12.5% 1.80× 4.43
H1 over 72.5 21.4% 22.6% 36.7% 0.62× 4.43
H1 over 72.5 20.6% 22.6% 36.7% 0.62× 4.43
H1 under 52.5 13.5% 12.3% 6.2% 1.97× 8.13
H1 over 76.5 12.1% 12.3% 24.5% 0.50× 8.14
H2 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dayton Flyers to win H2 71.1% 67.6% 56.9% 1.19× 1.48
Dayton Flyers to win H2 71.0% 67.6% 57.5% 1.18× 1.48
Siena Saints to win H2 25.3% 31.3% 38.9% 0.80× 3.20
Siena Saints to win H2 25.3% 31.3% 38.5% 0.81× 3.20
H2 tied 3.7% 3.9% 4.2% 0.95× 25.36
H2 tied 3.7% 3.9% 4.1% 0.97× 25.36
H2 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 over 59.5 85.8% 85.2% 93.9% 0.91× 1.17
H2 under 83.5 85.9% 85.2% 68.0% 1.25× 1.17
H2 over 63.5 76.8% 75.8% 87.1% 0.87× 1.32
H2 under 79.5 77.0% 75.8% 59.8% 1.27× 1.32
H2 over 63.5 76.1% 75.8% 88.2% 0.86× 1.32
H2 under 79.5 76.4% 75.8% 56.2% 1.35× 1.32
H2 over 66.5 67.5% 66.4% 80.8% 0.82× 1.51
H2 under 76.5 67.9% 66.4% 49.7% 1.33× 1.51
H2 over 66.5 67.1% 66.4% 82.3% 0.81× 1.51
H2 under 76.5 67.4% 66.4% 46.6% 1.42× 1.51
H2 under 74.5 61.1% 61.6% 43.0% 1.43× 1.62
H2 over 68.5 60.6% 61.6% 75.7% 0.81× 1.62
H2 over 68.5 60.3% 61.6% 77.5% 0.79× 1.62
H2 under 74.5 60.8% 61.6% 40.0% 1.54× 1.62
H2 over 70.5 53.4% 52.4% 69.8% 0.75× 1.91
H2 under 72.5 53.9% 52.4% 36.6% 1.43× 1.91
H2 under 72.5 53.8% 52.4% 34.1% 1.54× 1.91
H2 over 70.5 53.3% 52.4% 71.9% 0.73× 1.91
H2 under 71.5 50.2% 52.4% 33.6% 1.56× 1.91
H2 under 71.5 50.2% 52.4% 31.2% 1.68× 1.91
H2 over 71.5 49.8% 47.6% 66.4% 0.72× 2.10
H2 over 71.5 49.8% 47.6% 68.8% 0.69× 2.10
H2 under 70.5 46.7% 47.6% 28.1% 1.70× 2.10
H2 under 70.5 46.6% 47.6% 30.2% 1.58× 2.10
H2 over 72.5 46.1% 47.6% 63.4% 0.75× 2.10
H2 over 72.5 46.2% 47.6% 65.9% 0.72× 2.10
H2 under 68.5 39.4% 38.4% 24.3% 1.58× 2.61
H2 under 68.5 39.7% 38.4% 22.5% 1.71× 2.61
H2 over 74.5 39.2% 38.4% 60.0% 0.64× 2.61
H2 over 74.5 38.9% 38.4% 57.0% 0.67× 2.61
H2 under 66.5 32.5% 33.6% 19.2% 1.75× 2.97
H2 over 76.5 32.1% 33.6% 50.3% 0.67× 2.97
H2 under 66.5 32.9% 33.6% 17.7% 1.91× 2.97
H2 over 76.5 32.6% 33.6% 53.4% 0.63× 2.97
H2 under 63.5 23.9% 24.2% 11.8% 2.05× 4.13
H2 over 79.5 23.6% 24.2% 43.8% 0.55× 4.13
H2 under 63.5 23.2% 24.2% 12.9% 1.87× 4.13
H2 over 79.5 23.0% 24.2% 40.3% 0.60× 4.13
H2 under 59.5 14.2% 14.8% 6.1% 2.43× 6.76
H2 over 83.5 14.1% 14.8% 32.0% 0.46× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dayton Flyers leading at half time 69.5% 68.5% 57.9% 1.18× 1.46
Siena Saints leading at half time 26.6% 26.5% 38.2% 0.69× 3.78
Level at half time 3.9% 3.8% 3.9% 0.97× 26.41
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dayton Flyers +16.5 99.4% 97.4% 94.0% 1.04× 1.03
Dayton Flyers +18.5 99.6% 97.4% 95.4% 1.02× 1.03
Dayton Flyers +20.5 99.8% 97.4% 96.5% 1.01× 1.03
Dayton Flyers +8.5 95.9% 97.4% 83.3% 1.17× 1.03
Dayton Flyers +9.5 96.6% 97.4% 85.3% 1.14× 1.03
Dayton Flyers +10.5 97.3% 97.4% 87.2% 1.12× 1.03
Dayton Flyers +12.5 98.3% 97.4% 89.9% 1.08× 1.03
Dayton Flyers +14.5 98.9% 97.4% 92.2% 1.06× 1.03
Dayton Flyers +7.5 95.0% 91.1% 81.0% 1.13× 1.10
Dayton Flyers +5.5 92.7% 91.1% 76.4% 1.19× 1.10
Dayton Flyers +6.5 93.9% 91.1% 78.8% 1.16× 1.10
Dayton Flyers +4.5 91.3% 91.1% 73.7% 1.24× 1.10
Dayton Flyers +3.5 89.7% 85.9% 70.8% 1.21× 1.16
Dayton Flyers +2.5 87.9% 85.9% 68.0% 1.26× 1.16
Dayton Flyers +1.5 85.9% 85.9% 65.4% 1.31× 1.16
Siena Saints +20.5 83.0% 81.1% 86.5% 0.94× 1.23
Dayton Flyers −1.5 81.1% 81.1% 60.8% 1.33× 1.23
Dayton Flyers −2.5 78.2% 76.5% 57.7% 1.33× 1.31
Siena Saints +18.5 77.8% 76.5% 83.9% 0.91× 1.31
Dayton Flyers −3.5 75.2% 76.5% 54.1% 1.41× 1.31
Dayton Flyers −4.5 71.9% 71.6% 50.7% 1.41× 1.40
Siena Saints +16.5 71.7% 71.6% 80.7% 0.89× 1.40
Dayton Flyers −5.5 68.5% 66.7% 47.0% 1.42× 1.50
Dayton Flyers −6.5 65.0% 61.9% 44.3% 1.40× 1.62
Siena Saints +14.5 65.0% 61.9% 77.2% 0.80× 1.62
Dayton Flyers −7.5 61.3% 61.9% 41.3% 1.50× 1.62
Dayton Flyers −8.5 57.6% 57.1% 38.5% 1.48× 1.75
Siena Saints +12.5 57.7% 57.1% 72.4% 0.79× 1.75
Dayton Flyers −9.5 53.8% 52.4% 35.5% 1.48× 1.91
Siena Saints +10.5 50.1% 52.4% 67.4% 0.78× 1.91
Dayton Flyers −10.5 49.9% 47.6% 32.6% 1.46× 2.10
Siena Saints +9.5 46.2% 47.6% 64.5% 0.74× 2.10
Siena Saints +8.5 42.4% 42.9% 61.5% 0.70× 2.33
Dayton Flyers −12.5 42.3% 42.9% 27.6% 1.56× 2.33
Siena Saints +7.5 38.7% 38.1% 58.7% 0.65× 2.63
Siena Saints +6.5 35.0% 38.1% 55.7% 0.68× 2.63
Dayton Flyers −14.5 35.0% 38.1% 22.8% 1.67× 2.63
Siena Saints +5.5 31.5% 33.3% 53.0% 0.63× 3.01
Siena Saints +4.5 28.1% 28.4% 49.3% 0.57× 3.53
Dayton Flyers −16.5 28.3% 28.4% 19.3% 1.47× 3.53
Siena Saints +3.5 24.8% 23.5% 45.9% 0.51× 4.25
Siena Saints +2.5 21.8% 23.5% 42.3% 0.56× 4.25
Dayton Flyers −18.5 22.2% 23.5% 16.1% 1.46× 4.25
Siena Saints +1.5 18.9% 18.9% 39.2% 0.48× 5.29
Dayton Flyers −20.5 17.0% 18.9% 13.5% 1.40× 5.29
Siena Saints −1.5 14.1% 14.1% 34.6% 0.41× 7.09
Siena Saints −2.5 12.1% 14.1% 32.0% 0.44× 7.09
Siena Saints −3.5 10.3% 14.1% 29.3% 0.48× 7.09
Siena Saints −4.5 8.7% 8.9% 26.3% 0.34× 11.25
Siena Saints −5.5 7.3% 8.9% 23.6% 0.38× 11.25
Siena Saints −6.5 6.1% 8.9% 21.2% 0.42× 11.25
Siena Saints −7.5 5.0% 8.9% 19.0% 0.47× 11.25
Siena Saints −8.5 4.1% 2.6% 16.7% 0.16× 38.72
Siena Saints −9.5 3.4% 2.6% 14.7% 0.18× 38.73
Siena Saints −10.5 2.7% 2.6% 12.8% 0.20× 38.73
Siena Saints −12.5 1.7% 2.6% 10.1% 0.26× 38.73
Siena Saints −14.5 1.1% 2.6% 7.8% 0.33× 38.74
Siena Saints −16.5 0.6% 2.6% 6.0% 0.43× 38.74
Siena Saints −18.5 0.4% 2.6% 4.6% 0.57× 38.74
Siena Saints −20.5 0.2% 2.6% 3.5% 0.75× 38.74
Highest scoring half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 highest scoring 77.4% 71.6% 70.4% 1.02× 1.40
2nd half highest scoring 75.9% 71.6% 72.5% 0.99× 1.40
1st half highest scoring 24.1% 28.4% 27.5% 1.03× 3.53
H1 highest scoring 22.6% 28.4% 29.6% 0.96× 3.53
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dayton Flyers at HT / Dayton Flyers at FT 64.2% 62.3% 48.6% 1.28× 1.60
Siena Saints at HT / Dayton Flyers at FT 16.4% 15.5% 12.4% 1.25× 6.47
Siena Saints at HT / Siena Saints at FT 10.2% 12.2% 25.8% 0.47× 8.18
Dayton Flyers at HT / Siena Saints at FT 5.3% 8.3% 9.3% 0.89× 12.10
Level at HT / Dayton Flyers at FT 3.1% 2.1% 2.3% 0.92× 47.74
Level at HT / Siena Saints at FT 0.8% 2.1% 1.6% 1.28× 47.78
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dayton Flyers to win 83.7% 80.9% 63.2% 1.28× 1.24
Siena Saints to win 16.3% 19.1% 36.8% 0.52× 5.24
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Siena Saints even 50.1% 50.5% 50.4% 1.00× 1.98
Total points odd 51.2% 50.5% 51.6% 0.98× 1.98
Dayton Flyers even 50.0% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
Siena Saints odd 49.9% 49.5% 49.6% 1.00× 2.02
Total points even 48.8% 49.5% 48.4% 1.02× 2.02
Dayton Flyers odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 93.9% 94.0% 94.2% 1.00× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 6.1% 6.0% 5.8% 1.04× 16.66
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dayton Flyers under 83.5 86.1% 83.9% 73.5% 1.14× 1.19
Siena Saints over 52.5 85.7% 83.9% 95.0% 0.88× 1.19
Siena Saints under 72.5 85.4% 83.9% 55.3% 1.52× 1.19
Dayton Flyers over 63.5 83.6% 80.7% 85.4% 0.95× 1.24
Dayton Flyers under 80.5 78.0% 75.1% 64.9% 1.16× 1.33
Siena Saints over 55.5 77.2% 75.1% 91.3% 0.82× 1.33
Siena Saints under 69.5 77.0% 75.1% 45.2% 1.66× 1.33
Dayton Flyers over 66.5 74.9% 70.7% 78.7% 0.90× 1.41
Dayton Flyers under 78.5 71.5% 70.7% 58.4% 1.21× 1.41
Siena Saints over 57.5 70.2% 70.7% 88.1% 0.80× 1.41
Siena Saints under 67.5 70.2% 70.7% 38.4% 1.84× 1.41
Dayton Flyers over 68.5 67.9% 66.4% 72.7% 0.91× 1.51
Dayton Flyers under 76.5 64.1% 61.2% 52.3% 1.17× 1.63
Siena Saints over 59.5 62.4% 61.2% 84.5% 0.72× 1.63
Siena Saints under 65.5 62.5% 61.2% 32.2% 1.90× 1.63
Dayton Flyers over 70.5 60.2% 61.2% 66.7% 0.92× 1.63
Dayton Flyers under 74.5 56.1% 57.1% 45.9% 1.24× 1.75
Siena Saints over 61.5 54.2% 52.3% 79.3% 0.66× 1.91
Siena Saints under 63.5 54.3% 52.3% 26.1% 2.00× 1.91
Dayton Flyers over 72.5 52.1% 52.3% 60.8% 0.86× 1.91
Dayton Flyers under 73.5 52.1% 52.3% 42.6% 1.23× 1.91
Siena Saints under 62.5 50.1% 52.3% 23.4% 2.23× 1.91
Siena Saints over 62.5 49.9% 47.7% 76.6% 0.62× 2.09
Dayton Flyers under 72.5 47.9% 47.7% 39.2% 1.22× 2.09
Dayton Flyers over 73.5 47.9% 47.7% 57.4% 0.83× 2.09
Siena Saints under 61.5 45.8% 47.7% 20.7% 2.31× 2.09
Siena Saints over 63.5 45.7% 47.7% 73.9% 0.65× 2.09
Dayton Flyers over 74.5 43.9% 42.9% 54.1% 0.79× 2.33
Dayton Flyers under 70.5 39.8% 38.8% 33.3% 1.16× 2.58
Siena Saints under 59.5 37.6% 38.8% 15.5% 2.50× 2.58
Siena Saints over 65.5 37.5% 38.8% 67.8% 0.57× 2.58
Dayton Flyers over 76.5 35.9% 38.8% 47.7% 0.81× 2.58
Dayton Flyers under 68.5 32.1% 33.6% 27.3% 1.23× 2.98
Dayton Flyers over 78.5 28.5% 29.3% 41.6% 0.70× 3.42
Siena Saints under 57.5 29.8% 29.3% 11.9% 2.45× 3.42
Siena Saints over 67.5 29.8% 29.3% 61.6% 0.48× 3.42
Dayton Flyers under 66.5 25.1% 29.3% 21.3% 1.37× 3.42
Siena Saints under 55.5 22.8% 24.9% 8.7% 2.86× 4.02
Siena Saints over 69.5 23.0% 24.9% 54.8% 0.45× 4.02
Dayton Flyers over 80.5 22.0% 24.9% 35.1% 0.71× 4.02
Dayton Flyers under 63.5 16.4% 19.3% 14.6% 1.32× 5.18
Siena Saints under 52.5 14.3% 16.1% 5.0% 3.23× 6.21
Siena Saints over 72.5 14.6% 16.1% 44.7% 0.36× 6.21
Dayton Flyers over 83.5 13.9% 16.1% 26.5% 0.61× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 115.5 points 89.9% 85.0% 96.3% 0.88× 1.18
Under 155.5 points 89.5% 85.0% 68.1% 1.25× 1.18
Over 120.5 points 82.9% 80.6% 93.1% 0.87× 1.24
Under 150.5 points 82.7% 80.6% 58.4% 1.38× 1.24
Over 125.5 points 73.6% 70.8% 88.0% 0.81× 1.41
Under 145.5 points 73.6% 70.8% 48.2% 1.47× 1.41
Over 128.5 points 67.0% 65.9% 84.5% 0.78× 1.52
Under 142.5 points 67.0% 65.9% 41.7% 1.58× 1.52
Over 130.5 points 62.3% 61.5% 81.5% 0.75× 1.63
Under 140.5 points 62.4% 61.5% 37.2% 1.65× 1.63
Over 132.5 points 57.5% 56.5% 78.3% 0.72× 1.77
Under 138.5 points 57.5% 56.5% 33.0% 1.71× 1.77
Over 134.5 points 52.5% 52.3% 74.7% 0.70× 1.91
Under 136.5 points 52.5% 52.3% 28.9% 1.81× 1.91
Under 135.5 points 50.1% 52.3% 27.1% 1.93× 1.91
Over 135.5 points 49.9% 47.7% 72.9% 0.65× 2.10
Under 134.5 points 47.5% 47.7% 25.3% 1.88× 2.10
Over 136.5 points 47.5% 47.7% 71.1% 0.67× 2.10
Under 132.5 points 42.5% 43.5% 21.7% 2.01× 2.30
Over 138.5 points 42.5% 43.5% 67.0% 0.65× 2.30
Under 130.5 points 37.7% 38.5% 18.5% 2.08× 2.60
Over 140.5 points 37.6% 38.5% 62.8% 0.61× 2.60
Under 128.5 points 33.0% 34.1% 15.5% 2.21× 2.93
Over 142.5 points 33.0% 34.1% 58.3% 0.58× 2.93
Under 125.5 points 26.4% 29.2% 12.0% 2.43× 3.43
Over 145.5 points 26.4% 29.2% 51.8% 0.56× 3.43
Over 150.5 points 17.3% 19.4% 41.6% 0.47× 5.15
Under 120.5 points 17.1% 19.4% 7.0% 2.80× 5.15
Over 155.5 points 10.5% 15.0% 31.9% 0.47× 6.69
Under 115.5 points 10.1% 15.0% 3.7% 4.04× 6.69
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dayton Flyers to win both halves 46.5% 45.8% 33.2% 1.38× 2.18
Siena Saints to win both halves 4.3% 3.0% 14.5% 0.20× 33.57
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dayton Flyers by 6-10 18.6% 16.8% 14.4% 1.16× 5.97
Dayton Flyers by 11-15 18.4% 16.8% 11.6% 1.45× 5.97
Dayton Flyers by 1-5 15.2% 16.8% 16.2% 1.03× 5.97
Dayton Flyers by 16-20 14.6% 12.3% 7.6% 1.62× 8.11
Dayton Flyers by 21-25 9.4% 7.5% 5.6% 1.34× 13.40
Siena Saints by 1-5 9.0% 7.5% 13.2% 0.57× 13.40
Dayton Flyers by 26+ 7.6% 7.5% 7.9% 0.94× 13.40
Siena Saints by 6-10 4.6% 2.0% 10.8% 0.19× 49.29
Siena Saints by 11-15 1.9% 2.0% 6.1% 0.34× 49.31
Siena Saints by 16-20 0.6% 2.0% 3.3% 0.61× 49.32
Siena Saints by 21-25 0.2% 2.0% 1.9% 1.06× 49.33
Siena Saints by 26+ 0.0% 2.0% 1.6% 1.30× 49.33
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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