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Detroit Pistons v Charlotte Hornets — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 28 October 2026 · NBA · 2027

NBA results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Detroit Pistons win
60.4%
Draw
0.0%
Charlotte Hornets win
39.6%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 111.13–107.42 111-107 0% 50% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Detroit Pistons to score 100+ 83.8% 79.3% 89.3% 0.89× 1.26
Charlotte Hornets to score 100+ 74.9% 72.4% 85.9% 0.84× 1.38
Both sides to score 100+ 64.4% 61.9% 77.5% 0.80× 1.62
Detroit Pistons to score 110+ 55.7% 56.3% 67.0% 0.84× 1.78
Charlotte Hornets to score 110+ 42.8% 41.9% 60.9% 0.69× 2.39
Detroit Pistons to score 120+ 24.1% 22.0% 36.5% 0.60× 4.54
Charlotte Hornets to score 120+ 15.0% 17.5% 29.7% 0.59× 5.71
Detroit Pistons to score 130+ 6.0% 8.8% 12.8% 0.68× 11.39
Charlotte Hornets to score 130+ 2.9% 0.4% 10.0% 0.04× 282.78
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Detroit Pistons to win H1 55.0% 57.3% 52.8% 1.08× 1.75
Charlotte Hornets to win H1 41.5% 42.7% 44.1% 0.97× 2.34
H1 tied 3.4% 3.9% 3.1% 1.25× 25.86
H1 total 34
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 over 100.5 82.0% 83.2% 86.8% 0.96× 1.20
H1 under 124.5 81.8% 83.2% 78.4% 1.06× 1.20
H1 under 122.5 82.6% 82.5% 74.0% 1.12× 1.21
H1 over 98.5 81.8% 82.5% 90.0% 0.92× 1.21
H1 over 104.5 73.0% 74.0% 78.3% 0.95× 1.35
H1 under 120.5 72.8% 74.0% 68.4% 1.08× 1.35
H1 under 118.5 73.6% 73.5% 62.9% 1.17× 1.36
H1 over 102.5 72.6% 73.5% 83.0% 0.89× 1.36
H1 under 115.5 65.5% 67.4% 53.6% 1.26× 1.48
H1 under 117.5 64.7% 63.3% 59.6% 1.06× 1.58
H1 over 105.5 64.4% 62.7% 75.8% 0.83× 1.59
H1 under 113.5 59.7% 58.2% 47.6% 1.22× 1.72
H1 over 107.5 58.5% 58.2% 70.4% 0.83× 1.72
H1 under 111.5 53.7% 52.6% 41.0% 1.28× 1.90
H1 over 109.5 52.5% 52.6% 65.0% 0.81× 1.90
H1 under 110.5 50.6% 52.6% 38.1% 1.38× 1.90
H1 over 112.5 50.1% 52.5% 55.8% 0.94× 1.90
H1 under 112.5 49.9% 47.5% 44.2% 1.07× 2.11
H1 over 110.5 49.4% 47.4% 61.9% 0.76× 2.11
H1 under 109.5 47.5% 47.4% 35.0% 1.35× 2.11
H1 over 111.5 46.3% 47.4% 59.0% 0.80× 2.11
H1 under 107.5 41.5% 41.8% 29.6% 1.41× 2.39
H1 over 113.5 40.3% 41.8% 52.4% 0.80× 2.39
H1 under 105.5 35.6% 37.3% 24.2% 1.54× 2.68
H1 over 117.5 35.3% 36.7% 40.4% 0.91× 2.72
H1 over 115.5 34.5% 32.6% 46.4% 0.70× 3.07
H1 under 102.5 27.4% 26.5% 17.0% 1.56× 3.77
H1 over 118.5 26.4% 26.5% 37.1% 0.71× 3.77
H1 over 120.5 27.3% 26.0% 31.6% 0.83× 3.84
H1 under 104.5 27.0% 26.0% 21.7% 1.20× 3.84
H1 under 98.5 18.2% 17.5% 10.0% 1.74× 5.72
H1 over 122.5 17.4% 17.5% 26.0% 0.67× 5.73
H1 over 124.5 18.2% 16.8% 21.7% 0.77× 5.96
H1 under 100.5 18.0% 16.8% 13.2% 1.28× 5.96
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Detroit Pistons to win H2 54.9% 51.2% 51.6% 0.99× 1.95
Charlotte Hornets to win H2 41.6% 43.5% 44.7% 0.97× 2.30
H2 tied 3.5% 3.9% 3.7% 1.06× 25.36
H2 total 34
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 120.5 82.9% 81.8% 69.3% 1.18× 1.22
H2 over 96.5 81.9% 81.8% 89.3% 0.92× 1.22
H2 under 122.5 82.3% 81.5% 74.4% 1.10× 1.23
H2 over 98.5 82.1% 81.5% 86.2% 0.95× 1.23
H2 under 118.5 73.2% 72.5% 63.6% 1.14× 1.38
H2 over 102.5 72.9% 72.5% 78.5% 0.92× 1.38
H2 under 116.5 73.9% 72.2% 58.1% 1.24× 1.39
H2 over 100.5 72.6% 72.2% 82.4% 0.88× 1.39
H2 under 113.5 65.8% 66.4% 50.1% 1.32× 1.51
H2 under 115.5 65.1% 64.4% 55.4% 1.16× 1.55
H2 over 103.5 64.4% 61.6% 76.2% 0.81× 1.62
H2 under 111.5 60.0% 57.3% 44.7% 1.28× 1.74
H2 over 105.5 58.4% 57.3% 71.3% 0.80× 1.74
H2 under 109.5 53.9% 52.4% 39.1% 1.34× 1.91
H2 over 107.5 52.3% 52.4% 66.2% 0.79× 1.91
H2 under 108.5 50.8% 52.4% 36.2% 1.45× 1.91
H2 under 110.5 50.2% 52.0% 41.9% 1.24× 1.92
H2 over 110.5 49.8% 48.0% 58.1% 0.82× 2.09
H2 over 108.5 49.2% 47.6% 63.8% 0.75× 2.10
H2 under 107.5 47.7% 47.6% 33.8% 1.41× 2.10
H2 over 109.5 46.1% 47.6% 60.9% 0.78× 2.10
H2 under 105.5 41.6% 42.7% 28.7% 1.49× 2.34
H2 over 111.5 40.0% 42.7% 55.3% 0.77× 2.35
H2 under 103.5 35.6% 38.4% 23.8% 1.61× 2.61
H2 over 115.5 34.9% 35.6% 44.6% 0.80× 2.81
H2 over 113.5 34.2% 33.6% 49.9% 0.67× 2.97
H2 under 100.5 27.4% 27.8% 17.6% 1.58× 3.59
H2 over 116.5 26.1% 27.8% 41.9% 0.66× 3.59
H2 under 102.5 27.1% 27.5% 21.5% 1.28× 3.63
H2 over 118.5 26.8% 27.5% 36.4% 0.76× 3.63
H2 under 98.5 17.9% 18.5% 13.8% 1.34× 5.41
H2 over 122.5 17.7% 18.5% 25.6% 0.72× 5.41
H2 under 96.5 18.1% 18.2% 10.7% 1.69× 5.50
H2 over 120.5 17.1% 18.2% 30.7% 0.59× 5.50
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Detroit Pistons leading at half time 55.0% 56.9% 52.8% 1.08× 1.76
Charlotte Hornets leading at half time 41.5% 42.8% 44.1% 0.97× 2.34
Level at half time 3.4% 3.8% 3.1% 1.22× 26.41
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Detroit Pistons +20.5 95.1% 97.4% 93.1% 1.05× 1.03
Detroit Pistons +18.5 93.6% 91.1% 91.5% 1.00× 1.10
Detroit Pistons +16.5 91.6% 91.1% 89.7% 1.02× 1.10
Detroit Pistons +14.5 89.3% 85.9% 87.0% 0.99× 1.16
Charlotte Hornets +20.5 87.3% 85.9% 89.1% 0.96× 1.16
Detroit Pistons +12.5 86.5% 85.9% 83.9% 1.02× 1.16
Charlotte Hornets +18.5 84.2% 81.1% 86.4% 0.94× 1.23
Detroit Pistons +10.5 83.2% 81.1% 80.3% 1.01× 1.23
Detroit Pistons +9.5 81.4% 81.1% 78.1% 1.04× 1.23
Charlotte Hornets +16.5 80.6% 81.1% 83.5% 0.97× 1.23
Detroit Pistons +8.5 79.5% 76.5% 75.7% 1.01× 1.31
Detroit Pistons +7.5 77.4% 76.5% 73.0% 1.05× 1.31
Charlotte Hornets +14.5 76.5% 76.5% 80.1% 0.95× 1.31
Detroit Pistons +6.5 75.3% 76.5% 70.6% 1.08× 1.31
Detroit Pistons +5.5 73.0% 71.6% 68.0% 1.05× 1.40
Charlotte Hornets +12.5 72.0% 71.6% 76.0% 0.94× 1.40
Detroit Pistons +4.5 70.7% 71.6% 65.7% 1.09× 1.40
Detroit Pistons +3.5 68.2% 66.7% 63.1% 1.06× 1.50
Charlotte Hornets +10.5 67.1% 66.7% 71.0% 0.94× 1.50
Detroit Pistons +2.5 65.7% 66.7% 60.5% 1.10× 1.50
Charlotte Hornets +9.5 64.6% 61.9% 68.7% 0.90× 1.62
Detroit Pistons +1.5 63.1% 61.9% 57.9% 1.07× 1.62
Charlotte Hornets +8.5 61.9% 61.9% 65.9% 0.94× 1.62
Charlotte Hornets +7.5 59.2% 57.1% 63.0% 0.91× 1.75
Detroit Pistons −1.5 57.6% 57.1% 53.7% 1.06× 1.75
Charlotte Hornets +6.5 56.5% 57.1% 60.0% 0.95× 1.75
Detroit Pistons −2.5 54.8% 52.4% 50.9% 1.03× 1.91
Charlotte Hornets +5.5 53.7% 52.4% 57.1% 0.92× 1.91
Detroit Pistons −3.5 52.0% 52.4% 48.4% 1.08× 1.91
Charlotte Hornets +4.5 50.9% 52.4% 54.1% 0.97× 1.91
Detroit Pistons −4.5 49.1% 47.6% 46.0% 1.04× 2.10
Charlotte Hornets +3.5 48.0% 47.6% 51.6% 0.92× 2.10
Detroit Pistons −5.5 46.3% 47.6% 42.9% 1.11× 2.10
Charlotte Hornets +2.5 45.2% 47.6% 49.1% 0.97× 2.10
Charlotte Hornets +1.5 42.4% 42.9% 46.3% 0.93× 2.33
Detroit Pistons −6.5 43.5% 42.9% 40.0% 1.07× 2.33
Detroit Pistons −7.5 40.8% 42.9% 37.0% 1.16× 2.33
Detroit Pistons −8.5 38.1% 38.1% 34.1% 1.12× 2.63
Charlotte Hornets −1.5 36.9% 38.1% 42.1% 0.90× 2.63
Detroit Pistons −9.5 35.4% 38.1% 31.3% 1.22× 2.63
Charlotte Hornets −2.5 34.3% 33.3% 39.5% 0.84× 3.01
Detroit Pistons −10.5 32.9% 33.3% 29.0% 1.15× 3.01
Charlotte Hornets −3.5 31.8% 33.3% 36.9% 0.90× 3.01
Charlotte Hornets −4.5 29.3% 28.4% 34.3% 0.83× 3.53
Detroit Pistons −12.5 28.0% 28.4% 24.0% 1.18× 3.53
Charlotte Hornets −5.5 27.0% 28.4% 32.0% 0.89× 3.53
Charlotte Hornets −6.5 24.7% 23.5% 29.4% 0.80× 4.25
Detroit Pistons −14.5 23.5% 23.5% 19.9% 1.19× 4.25
Charlotte Hornets −7.5 22.6% 23.5% 27.0% 0.87× 4.25
Charlotte Hornets −8.5 20.5% 23.5% 24.3% 0.97× 4.25
Charlotte Hornets −9.5 18.6% 18.9% 21.9% 0.86× 5.29
Detroit Pistons −16.5 19.4% 18.9% 16.5% 1.15× 5.29
Charlotte Hornets −10.5 16.8% 18.9% 19.7% 0.96× 5.29
Detroit Pistons −18.5 15.8% 18.9% 13.6% 1.39× 5.30
Charlotte Hornets −12.5 13.5% 14.1% 16.1% 0.87× 7.09
Detroit Pistons −20.5 12.7% 14.1% 10.9% 1.30× 7.09
Charlotte Hornets −14.5 10.7% 14.1% 13.0% 1.09× 7.09
Charlotte Hornets −16.5 8.4% 8.9% 10.3% 0.86× 11.25
Charlotte Hornets −18.5 6.5% 8.9% 8.5% 1.04× 11.25
Charlotte Hornets −20.5 4.9% 2.6% 6.9% 0.37× 38.72
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1st half highest scoring 56.4% 52.6% 53.5% 0.98× 1.90
2nd half highest scoring 43.6% 47.4% 46.5% 1.02× 2.11
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 highest scoring 28.2% 27.4% 29.2% 0.94× 3.65
Q3 highest scoring 27.8% 27.4% 27.5% 1.00× 3.65
Q2 highest scoring 26.5% 27.4% 26.3% 1.04× 3.65
Q4 highest scoring 17.5% 18.3% 17.0% 1.08× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Detroit Pistons at HT / Detroit Pistons at FT 44.3% 41.0% 40.8% 1.01× 2.44
Charlotte Hornets at HT / Charlotte Hornets at FT 27.5% 29.6% 30.9% 0.96× 3.38
Charlotte Hornets at HT / Detroit Pistons at FT 14.1% 12.2% 13.3% 0.92× 8.17
Detroit Pistons at HT / Charlotte Hornets at FT 10.7% 12.2% 12.0% 1.02× 8.18
Level at HT / Detroit Pistons at FT 2.0% 2.1% 1.7% 1.22× 47.76
Level at HT / Charlotte Hornets at FT 1.4% 2.1% 1.4% 1.49× 47.77
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Detroit Pistons to win 60.4% 60.6% 55.7% 1.09× 1.65
Charlotte Hornets to win 39.6% 39.4% 44.3% 0.89× 2.54
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Total points odd 51.4% 50.5% 51.0% 0.99× 1.98
Charlotte Hornets even 50.0% 50.5% 50.3% 1.00× 1.98
Detroit Pistons even 50.0% 50.5% 49.7% 1.02× 1.98
Charlotte Hornets odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.7% 1.00× 2.02
Detroit Pistons odd 50.0% 49.5% 50.3% 0.98× 2.02
Total points even 48.6% 49.5% 49.0% 1.01× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 93.1% 94.0% 94.8% 0.99× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 6.9% 6.0% 5.2% 1.16× 16.65
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Detroit Pistons to win Q1 52.2% 52.6% 51.3% 1.02× 1.90
Charlotte Hornets to win Q1 43.0% 42.9% 44.1% 0.97× 2.33
Q1 tied 4.8% 4.2% 4.6% 0.90× 23.94
Q1 total 32
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 under 64.5 82.8% 83.2% 80.1% 1.04× 1.20
Q1 over 48.5 82.3% 83.2% 85.6% 0.97× 1.20
Q1 under 63.5 83.3% 82.8% 76.8% 1.08× 1.21
Q1 over 47.5 82.1% 82.8% 88.2% 0.94× 1.21
Q1 under 61.5 72.4% 73.1% 68.5% 1.07× 1.37
Q1 over 51.5 71.7% 73.1% 76.0% 0.96× 1.37
Q1 under 60.5 73.0% 72.7% 64.5% 1.13× 1.38
Q1 over 50.5 71.4% 72.7% 79.4% 0.92× 1.38
Q1 under 59.5 64.1% 62.3% 60.0% 1.04× 1.61
Q1 over 53.5 63.4% 62.3% 68.2% 0.91× 1.61
Q1 under 58.5 64.7% 61.7% 55.7% 1.11× 1.62
Q1 over 52.5 62.9% 61.7% 72.4% 0.85× 1.62
Q1 under 57.5 55.0% 59.2% 50.4% 1.17× 1.69
Q1 under 56.5 55.6% 58.6% 45.4% 1.29× 1.71
Q1 over 54.5 53.7% 52.7% 63.3% 0.83× 1.90
Q1 under 55.5 51.0% 52.7% 40.8% 1.29× 1.90
Q1 over 55.5 49.0% 47.3% 59.2% 0.80× 2.11
Q1 under 54.5 46.3% 47.3% 36.7% 1.29× 2.11
Q1 over 56.5 44.4% 41.4% 54.6% 0.76× 2.42
Q1 over 57.5 45.0% 40.8% 49.6% 0.82× 2.45
Q1 under 52.5 37.1% 38.3% 27.6% 1.39× 2.61
Q1 over 58.5 35.3% 38.3% 44.3% 0.86× 2.61
Q1 under 53.5 36.6% 37.7% 31.8% 1.19× 2.65
Q1 over 59.5 35.9% 37.7% 40.0% 0.94× 2.65
Q1 under 50.5 28.6% 27.3% 20.6% 1.33× 3.66
Q1 over 60.5 27.0% 27.3% 35.5% 0.77× 3.66
Q1 under 51.5 28.3% 26.9% 24.0% 1.12× 3.72
Q1 over 61.5 27.6% 26.9% 31.5% 0.85× 3.72
Q1 under 47.5 17.9% 17.2% 11.8% 1.46× 5.83
Q1 over 63.5 16.7% 17.2% 23.2% 0.74× 5.83
Q1 under 48.5 17.7% 16.8% 14.4% 1.16× 5.95
Q1 over 64.5 17.2% 16.8% 19.9% 0.84× 5.95
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Detroit Pistons to win Q2 52.2% 51.4% 49.3% 1.04× 1.95
Charlotte Hornets to win Q2 43.1% 43.9% 46.2% 0.95× 2.28
Q2 tied 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% 0.98× 22.88
Q2 total 32
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 under 64.5 83.5% 83.1% 80.9% 1.03× 1.20
Q2 over 48.5 81.2% 83.1% 84.7% 0.98× 1.20
Q2 under 63.5 84.0% 83.0% 77.5% 1.07× 1.21
Q2 over 47.5 81.0% 83.0% 87.2% 0.95× 1.21
Q2 under 61.5 73.4% 73.0% 70.4% 1.04× 1.37
Q2 over 51.5 70.5% 73.0% 74.2% 0.98× 1.37
Q2 under 60.5 74.0% 72.0% 65.7% 1.10× 1.39
Q2 over 50.5 70.1% 72.0% 78.1% 0.92× 1.39
Q2 under 59.5 65.3% 67.6% 61.9% 1.09× 1.48
Q2 under 58.5 65.9% 67.4% 57.3% 1.17× 1.49
Q2 over 53.5 62.0% 62.0% 65.8% 0.94× 1.61
Q2 over 52.5 61.5% 60.7% 70.3% 0.86× 1.65
Q2 under 56.5 56.9% 58.2% 48.3% 1.20× 1.72
Q2 under 57.5 56.3% 57.8% 52.7% 1.10× 1.73
Q2 over 54.5 52.4% 52.7% 61.1% 0.86× 1.90
Q2 under 55.5 52.3% 52.7% 43.7% 1.21× 1.90
Q2 over 55.5 47.7% 47.3% 56.3% 0.84× 2.11
Q2 under 54.5 47.6% 47.3% 38.9% 1.22× 2.11
Q2 over 57.5 43.7% 42.2% 47.3% 0.89× 2.37
Q2 over 56.5 43.1% 41.8% 51.7% 0.81× 2.39
Q2 under 52.5 38.5% 39.3% 29.7% 1.32× 2.55
Q2 under 53.5 38.0% 38.0% 34.2% 1.11× 2.63
Q2 over 58.5 34.1% 32.6% 42.7% 0.77× 3.06
Q2 over 59.5 34.7% 32.4% 38.1% 0.85× 3.09
Q2 under 50.5 29.9% 28.0% 21.9% 1.28× 3.57
Q2 over 60.5 26.0% 28.0% 34.3% 0.82× 3.57
Q2 under 51.5 29.5% 27.0% 25.8% 1.05× 3.71
Q2 over 61.5 26.6% 27.0% 29.6% 0.91× 3.71
Q2 under 47.5 19.0% 17.0% 12.8% 1.33× 5.88
Q2 over 63.5 16.0% 17.0% 22.5% 0.76× 5.89
Q2 under 48.5 18.8% 16.9% 15.3% 1.10× 5.93
Q2 over 64.5 16.5% 16.9% 19.1% 0.88× 5.93
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Detroit Pistons to win Q3 52.2% 52.7% 50.9% 1.04× 1.90
Charlotte Hornets to win Q3 43.1% 42.3% 44.3% 0.95× 2.37
Q3 tied 4.7% 4.3% 4.9% 0.88× 23.43
Q3 total 32
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 under 63.5 83.1% 82.3% 75.9% 1.08× 1.22
Q3 over 47.5 82.8% 82.3% 88.1% 0.93× 1.22
Q3 over 48.5 83.0% 82.2% 85.6% 0.96× 1.22
Q3 under 64.5 82.5% 82.2% 79.2% 1.04× 1.22
Q3 over 51.5 72.6% 72.5% 76.1% 0.95× 1.38
Q3 under 61.5 72.0% 72.5% 67.7% 1.07× 1.38
Q3 under 60.5 72.6% 71.8% 63.5% 1.13× 1.39
Q3 over 50.5 72.2% 71.8% 79.7% 0.90× 1.39
Q3 over 53.5 64.2% 62.6% 68.3% 0.92× 1.60
Q3 under 59.5 63.5% 62.6% 59.0% 1.06× 1.60
Q3 under 58.5 64.2% 62.0% 54.8% 1.13× 1.61
Q3 over 52.5 63.7% 62.0% 72.2% 0.86× 1.61
Q3 under 57.5 54.4% 52.6% 49.8% 1.06× 1.90
Q3 under 56.5 55.0% 52.3% 45.0% 1.16× 1.91
Q3 over 54.5 54.5% 52.3% 63.9% 0.82× 1.91
Q3 under 55.5 50.3% 52.3% 40.1% 1.30× 1.91
Q3 over 55.5 49.7% 47.7% 59.9% 0.80× 2.10
Q3 over 56.5 45.0% 47.7% 55.0% 0.87× 2.10
Q3 under 54.5 45.5% 47.7% 36.1% 1.32× 2.10
Q3 over 57.5 45.6% 47.4% 50.2% 0.94× 2.11
Q3 under 52.5 36.3% 38.0% 27.8% 1.37× 2.63
Q3 over 58.5 35.8% 38.0% 45.2% 0.84× 2.63
Q3 over 59.5 36.5% 37.4% 41.0% 0.91× 2.67
Q3 under 53.5 35.8% 37.4% 31.7% 1.18× 2.67
Q3 under 50.5 27.8% 28.2% 20.3% 1.39× 3.55
Q3 over 60.5 27.4% 28.2% 36.5% 0.77× 3.55
Q3 over 61.5 28.0% 27.5% 32.3% 0.85× 3.64
Q3 under 51.5 27.4% 27.5% 23.9% 1.15× 3.64
Q3 over 64.5 17.5% 17.8% 20.8% 0.85× 5.62
Q3 under 48.5 17.0% 17.8% 14.4% 1.23× 5.63
Q3 under 47.5 17.2% 17.7% 11.9% 1.49× 5.66
Q3 over 63.5 16.9% 17.7% 24.1% 0.73× 5.66
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Detroit Pistons to win Q4 52.1% 51.4% 48.3% 1.06× 1.95
Charlotte Hornets to win Q4 43.1% 43.1% 46.4% 0.93× 2.32
Q4 tied 4.9% 5.2% 5.3% 0.98× 19.28
Q4 total 32
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 under 61.5 84.2% 82.0% 77.5% 1.06× 1.22
Q4 under 62.5 83.9% 81.9% 80.4% 1.02× 1.22
Q4 over 46.5 80.1% 81.9% 81.7% 1.00× 1.22
Q4 over 45.5 80.0% 76.9% 84.6% 0.91× 1.30
Q4 under 59.5 74.0% 72.3% 70.2% 1.03× 1.38
Q4 under 58.5 74.4% 71.5% 66.2% 1.08× 1.40
Q4 over 48.5 69.0% 67.4% 75.5% 0.89× 1.48
Q4 under 56.5 66.5% 67.4% 57.2% 1.18× 1.48
Q4 over 49.5 69.2% 66.7% 72.3% 0.92× 1.50
Q4 under 57.5 66.1% 66.6% 61.9% 1.08× 1.50
Q4 over 51.5 60.7% 61.6% 64.7% 0.95× 1.62
Q4 over 50.5 60.5% 61.4% 68.5% 0.90× 1.63
Q4 under 54.5 57.8% 58.4% 48.6% 1.20× 1.71
Q4 under 55.5 57.4% 57.4% 52.9% 1.09× 1.74
Q4 under 53.5 53.2% 52.5% 44.3% 1.18× 1.91
Q4 over 52.5 51.4% 52.5% 60.4% 0.87× 1.91
Q4 under 52.5 48.6% 47.5% 39.6% 1.20× 2.11
Q4 over 53.5 46.8% 47.5% 55.7% 0.85× 2.11
Q4 over 55.5 42.6% 42.6% 47.1% 0.90× 2.35
Q4 over 54.5 42.2% 41.6% 51.4% 0.81× 2.40
Q4 under 50.5 39.5% 38.6% 31.5% 1.23× 2.59
Q4 under 51.5 39.3% 38.4% 35.3% 1.09× 2.61
Q4 over 57.5 33.9% 33.4% 38.1% 0.88× 3.00
Q4 under 49.5 30.8% 33.3% 27.7% 1.20× 3.00
Q4 over 56.5 33.5% 32.6% 42.8% 0.76× 3.07
Q4 under 48.5 31.0% 32.6% 24.5% 1.33× 3.07
Q4 over 58.5 25.6% 28.5% 33.8% 0.84× 3.51
Q4 over 59.5 26.0% 27.7% 29.8% 0.93× 3.61
Q4 under 45.5 20.0% 23.1% 15.4% 1.50× 4.33
Q4 under 46.5 19.9% 18.1% 18.3% 0.99× 5.53
Q4 over 62.5 16.1% 18.1% 19.6% 0.92× 5.54
Q4 over 61.5 15.8% 18.0% 22.5% 0.80× 5.56
Team total 66
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Charlotte Hornets under 117.5 80.6% 80.7% 64.4% 1.25× 1.24
Detroit Pistons under 121.5 80.8% 80.7% 69.6% 1.16× 1.24
Charlotte Hornets under 120.5 81.1% 80.3% 72.7% 1.10× 1.25
Detroit Pistons under 123.5 80.4% 80.3% 74.4% 1.08× 1.25
Detroit Pistons over 103.5 78.7% 78.3% 82.1% 0.95× 1.28
Charlotte Hornets over 97.5 80.0% 75.1% 89.3% 0.84× 1.33
Detroit Pistons over 101.5 79.3% 75.1% 86.0% 0.87× 1.33
Detroit Pistons under 120.5 72.8% 71.9% 66.3% 1.08× 1.39
Detroit Pistons under 118.5 73.2% 70.7% 60.3% 1.17× 1.41
Charlotte Hornets over 100.5 72.1% 70.7% 84.1% 0.84× 1.41
Charlotte Hornets under 114.5 72.9% 70.7% 55.5% 1.27× 1.41
Detroit Pistons over 104.5 71.4% 70.7% 79.8% 0.89× 1.41
Charlotte Hornets over 103.5 70.0% 66.6% 77.5% 0.86× 1.50
Charlotte Hornets under 115.5 68.1% 66.6% 58.6% 1.14× 1.50
Detroit Pistons under 116.5 67.3% 66.4% 54.7% 1.21× 1.51
Charlotte Hornets over 102.5 66.1% 66.4% 79.7% 0.83× 1.51
Charlotte Hornets under 112.5 66.9% 66.4% 48.5% 1.37× 1.51
Detroit Pistons over 106.5 65.4% 66.4% 75.1% 0.88× 1.51
Charlotte Hornets under 110.5 60.6% 61.2% 42.1% 1.45× 1.63
Detroit Pistons under 114.5 61.0% 61.2% 48.6% 1.26× 1.63
Charlotte Hornets over 105.5 64.0% 61.2% 71.9% 0.85× 1.63
Charlotte Hornets under 113.5 61.9% 61.2% 52.0% 1.18× 1.64
Charlotte Hornets under 111.5 55.5% 57.9% 45.4% 1.27× 1.73
Charlotte Hornets over 104.5 59.6% 57.1% 75.0% 0.76× 1.75
Detroit Pistons over 108.5 59.0% 57.1% 69.9% 0.82× 1.75
Charlotte Hornets under 108.5 53.9% 52.3% 36.0% 1.45× 1.91
Detroit Pistons under 112.5 54.4% 52.3% 42.3% 1.24× 1.91
Detroit Pistons under 111.5 51.0% 52.3% 38.9% 1.34× 1.91
Charlotte Hornets over 106.5 52.9% 52.3% 68.9% 0.76× 1.91
Detroit Pistons over 110.5 52.3% 52.3% 64.1% 0.82× 1.91
Charlotte Hornets under 107.5 50.5% 52.3% 33.4% 1.57× 1.91
Charlotte Hornets over 109.5 51.1% 52.2% 60.9% 0.86× 1.91
Detroit Pistons under 113.5 51.1% 52.2% 45.7% 1.14× 1.91
Charlotte Hornets under 109.5 48.9% 47.8% 39.1% 1.22× 2.09
Detroit Pistons over 113.5 48.9% 47.8% 54.3% 0.88× 2.09
Charlotte Hornets over 107.5 49.5% 47.7% 66.6% 0.72× 2.09
Detroit Pistons over 111.5 49.0% 47.7% 61.1% 0.78× 2.09
Charlotte Hornets under 106.5 47.1% 47.7% 31.1% 1.54× 2.09
Detroit Pistons under 110.5 47.7% 47.7% 35.9% 1.33× 2.09
Charlotte Hornets over 108.5 46.1% 47.7% 64.0% 0.75× 2.09
Detroit Pistons over 112.5 45.6% 47.7% 57.7% 0.83× 2.09
Charlotte Hornets under 104.5 40.4% 42.9% 25.0% 1.72× 2.33
Detroit Pistons under 108.5 41.0% 42.9% 30.1% 1.42× 2.33
Charlotte Hornets over 111.5 44.5% 42.1% 54.6% 0.77× 2.38
Charlotte Hornets over 113.5 38.1% 38.8% 48.0% 0.81× 2.58
Charlotte Hornets under 105.5 36.0% 38.8% 28.1% 1.38× 2.58
Charlotte Hornets over 110.5 39.4% 38.8% 57.9% 0.67× 2.58
Detroit Pistons over 114.5 39.0% 38.8% 51.4% 0.76× 2.58
Detroit Pistons under 106.5 34.6% 33.6% 24.9% 1.35× 2.98
Charlotte Hornets under 102.5 33.9% 33.6% 20.3% 1.65× 2.98
Charlotte Hornets over 112.5 33.1% 33.6% 51.5% 0.65× 2.98
Detroit Pistons over 116.5 32.7% 33.6% 45.3% 0.74× 2.98
Charlotte Hornets over 115.5 31.9% 33.4% 41.4% 0.81× 3.00
Charlotte Hornets under 103.5 30.0% 33.4% 22.5% 1.48× 3.00
Detroit Pistons under 104.5 28.6% 29.3% 20.2% 1.45× 3.42
Charlotte Hornets under 100.5 27.9% 29.3% 15.9% 1.85× 3.42
Charlotte Hornets over 114.5 27.1% 29.3% 44.5% 0.66× 3.42
Detroit Pistons over 118.5 26.8% 29.3% 39.7% 0.74× 3.42
Detroit Pistons over 120.5 27.2% 28.2% 33.7% 0.84× 3.55
Detroit Pistons under 101.5 20.7% 24.9% 14.0% 1.77× 4.02
Charlotte Hornets under 97.5 20.0% 24.9% 10.7% 2.31× 4.02
Detroit Pistons under 103.5 21.3% 21.7% 17.9% 1.22× 4.60
Detroit Pistons over 123.5 19.6% 19.7% 25.6% 0.77× 5.07
Charlotte Hornets over 120.5 18.9% 19.7% 27.3% 0.72× 5.07
Charlotte Hornets over 117.5 19.4% 19.3% 35.6% 0.54× 5.18
Detroit Pistons over 121.5 19.2% 19.3% 30.4% 0.63× 5.18
Total points 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 243.5 points 86.3% 85.5% 78.2% 1.09× 1.17
Over 198.5 points 86.2% 85.0% 93.6% 0.91× 1.18
Under 238.5 points 86.1% 85.0% 70.9% 1.20× 1.18
Over 203.5 points 79.3% 75.6% 89.8% 0.84× 1.32
Under 233.5 points 79.2% 75.6% 61.4% 1.23× 1.32
Over 208.5 points 70.8% 70.8% 84.1% 0.84× 1.41
Under 228.5 points 70.5% 70.8% 51.3% 1.38× 1.41
Under 230.5 points 65.5% 66.6% 55.4% 1.20× 1.50
Over 216.5 points 63.6% 61.8% 71.6% 0.86× 1.62
Over 211.5 points 64.9% 61.5% 79.7% 0.77× 1.63
Under 225.5 points 64.7% 61.5% 45.3% 1.36× 1.63
Over 213.5 points 60.8% 61.5% 76.4% 0.80× 1.63
Under 223.5 points 60.6% 61.5% 41.7% 1.47× 1.63
Over 215.5 points 56.6% 56.5% 73.4% 0.77× 1.77
Under 221.5 points 56.4% 56.5% 37.8% 1.49× 1.77
Under 226.5 points 57.4% 56.0% 47.3% 1.19× 1.79
Over 220.5 points 55.3% 56.0% 64.2% 0.87× 1.79
Over 217.5 points 52.2% 52.3% 69.6% 0.75× 1.91
Under 219.5 points 52.1% 52.3% 33.9% 1.54× 1.91
Over 218.5 points 50.1% 52.3% 67.8% 0.77× 1.91
Under 224.5 points 53.2% 52.2% 43.5% 1.20× 1.92
Over 222.5 points 51.1% 52.2% 60.4% 0.86× 1.92
Under 222.5 points 48.9% 47.8% 39.6% 1.21× 2.09
Over 224.5 points 46.8% 47.8% 56.5% 0.84× 2.09
Under 218.5 points 49.9% 47.7% 32.2% 1.48× 2.10
Under 217.5 points 47.8% 47.7% 30.4% 1.57× 2.10
Over 219.5 points 47.9% 47.7% 66.1% 0.72× 2.10
Under 220.5 points 44.7% 44.0% 35.8% 1.23× 2.27
Over 226.5 points 42.6% 44.0% 52.7% 0.83× 2.27
Under 215.5 points 43.4% 43.5% 26.6% 1.63× 2.30
Over 221.5 points 43.6% 43.5% 62.2% 0.70× 2.30
Under 213.5 points 39.2% 38.5% 23.6% 1.64× 2.60
Over 223.5 points 39.4% 38.5% 58.3% 0.66× 2.60
Under 211.5 points 35.1% 38.5% 20.3% 1.89× 2.60
Over 225.5 points 35.3% 38.5% 54.7% 0.70× 2.60
Under 216.5 points 36.4% 38.3% 28.4% 1.35× 2.61
Over 230.5 points 34.5% 33.4% 44.6% 0.75× 2.99
Under 208.5 points 29.2% 29.2% 15.9% 1.83× 3.43
Over 228.5 points 29.5% 29.2% 48.7% 0.60× 3.43
Under 203.5 points 20.7% 24.4% 10.2% 2.39× 4.10
Over 233.5 points 20.8% 24.4% 38.6% 0.63× 4.10
Over 238.5 points 13.9% 15.0% 29.1% 0.51× 6.68
Under 198.5 points 13.8% 15.0% 6.4% 2.33× 6.68
Over 243.5 points 13.7% 14.5% 21.8% 0.67× 6.88
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Detroit Pistons to win both halves 28.1% 27.2% 25.2% 1.08× 3.68
Charlotte Hornets to win both halves 15.2% 18.8% 17.8% 1.06× 5.31
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Detroit Pistons by 1-5 14.0% 12.3% 12.8% 0.96× 8.11
Detroit Pistons by 6-10 13.5% 12.3% 13.9% 0.88× 8.11
Charlotte Hornets by 1-5 12.6% 12.3% 12.3% 1.01× 8.11
Detroit Pistons by 11-15 11.5% 12.3% 10.8% 1.14× 8.11
Charlotte Hornets by 6-10 10.2% 12.3% 12.3% 1.00× 8.11
Detroit Pistons by 16-20 8.7% 7.5% 7.3% 1.02× 13.40
Charlotte Hornets by 11-15 7.3% 7.5% 8.0% 0.93× 13.40
Detroit Pistons by 21-25 5.9% 7.5% 4.7% 1.58× 13.40
Detroit Pistons by 26+ 6.8% 7.5% 6.2% 1.21× 13.40
Charlotte Hornets by 16-20 4.6% 2.0% 4.9% 0.42× 49.29
Charlotte Hornets by 21-25 2.6% 2.0% 3.0% 0.67× 49.30
Charlotte Hornets by 26+ 2.3% 2.0% 3.9% 0.53× 49.31
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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