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Florida Gators v Florida Atlantic Owls — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 19 November 2026 · NCAAW · 2027

NCAAW results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Florida Gators win
98.6%
Draw
0.0%
Florida Atlantic Owls win
1.4%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 79.75–55.39 80-55 0% 51% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida Gators to score 100+ 2.0% 0.4% 1.8% 0.20× 282.96
Florida Gators to score 110+ 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.64× 283.34
Florida Gators to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 2.91× 283.36
Florida Gators to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 7.58× 283.36
Florida Atlantic Owls to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.71× 283.36
Florida Atlantic Owls to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.74× 283.36
Florida Atlantic Owls to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 18.95× 283.36
Florida Atlantic Owls to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 37.89× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 6.32× 283.36
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida Gators to win H1 89.4% 88.8% 56.4% 1.57× 1.13
Florida Atlantic Owls to win H1 8.6% 7.2% 39.9% 0.18× 13.92
H1 tied 2.0% 3.9% 3.7% 1.05× 25.88
H1 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 77.5 89.4% 87.7% 91.6% 0.96× 1.14
H1 over 53.5 87.8% 87.7% 76.8% 1.14× 1.14
H1 under 73.5 80.3% 82.5% 85.6% 0.96× 1.21
H1 over 57.5 77.5% 77.4% 64.8% 1.19× 1.29
H1 under 70.5 71.0% 73.5% 78.9% 0.93× 1.36
H1 over 60.5 67.4% 67.4% 53.9% 1.25× 1.48
H1 under 68.5 63.8% 62.7% 73.5% 0.85× 1.59
H1 over 62.5 59.9% 58.2% 46.3% 1.26× 1.72
H1 under 66.5 56.1% 58.2% 67.1% 0.87× 1.72
H1 over 64.5 51.9% 52.6% 39.3% 1.34× 1.90
H1 under 65.5 52.1% 52.6% 63.9% 0.82× 1.90
H1 under 64.5 48.1% 47.4% 60.7% 0.78× 2.11
H1 over 65.5 47.9% 47.4% 36.1% 1.31× 2.11
H1 over 66.5 43.9% 41.8% 32.9% 1.27× 2.39
H1 under 62.5 40.1% 41.8% 53.7% 0.78× 2.39
H1 over 68.5 36.2% 37.3% 26.5% 1.41× 2.68
H1 under 60.5 32.6% 32.6% 46.1% 0.71× 3.07
H1 over 70.5 29.0% 26.5% 21.1% 1.26× 3.77
H1 under 57.5 22.5% 22.6% 35.2% 0.64× 4.43
H1 over 73.5 19.7% 17.5% 14.4% 1.21× 5.72
H1 under 53.5 12.2% 12.3% 23.2% 0.53× 8.14
H1 over 77.5 10.6% 12.3% 8.4% 1.47× 8.14
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida Gators to win H2 90.8% 89.2% 56.0% 1.59× 1.12
Florida Atlantic Owls to win H2 7.5% 11.3% 40.6% 0.28× 8.87
H2 tied 1.7% 3.9% 3.4% 1.16× 25.37
H2 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 83.5 88.0% 85.2% 88.9% 0.96× 1.17
H2 over 59.5 87.1% 85.2% 77.0% 1.11× 1.17
H2 under 79.5 78.7% 75.8% 82.0% 0.92× 1.32
H2 over 63.5 77.1% 75.8% 65.3% 1.16× 1.32
H2 under 76.5 69.5% 66.4% 75.6% 0.88× 1.51
H2 over 66.5 67.3% 66.4% 55.4% 1.20× 1.51
H2 under 74.5 62.6% 61.6% 69.9% 0.88× 1.62
H2 over 68.5 60.1% 61.6% 48.7% 1.27× 1.62
H2 under 72.5 55.1% 57.3% 64.1% 0.90× 1.74
H2 over 70.5 52.5% 52.4% 42.2% 1.24× 1.91
H2 under 71.5 51.3% 52.4% 61.1% 0.86× 1.91
H2 over 71.5 48.7% 47.6% 38.9% 1.23× 2.10
H2 under 70.5 47.5% 47.6% 57.8% 0.82× 2.10
H2 over 72.5 44.9% 42.7% 36.0% 1.19× 2.34
H2 under 68.5 39.9% 38.4% 51.3% 0.75× 2.61
H2 over 74.5 37.4% 38.4% 30.1% 1.28× 2.61
H2 under 66.5 32.7% 33.6% 44.6% 0.75× 2.97
H2 over 76.5 30.5% 33.6% 24.4% 1.38× 2.97
H2 under 63.5 22.9% 24.2% 34.7% 0.70× 4.13
H2 over 79.5 21.3% 24.2% 18.0% 1.35× 4.13
H2 under 59.5 12.9% 14.8% 23.0% 0.64× 6.76
H2 over 83.5 12.0% 14.8% 11.1% 1.33× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida Gators leading at half time 89.4% 89.5% 56.4% 1.59× 1.12
Florida Atlantic Owls leading at half time 8.6% 6.7% 39.9% 0.17× 14.88
Level at half time 2.0% 3.8% 3.7% 1.03× 26.43
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida Gators +4.5 99.5% 97.4% 67.8% 1.44× 1.03
Florida Gators +5.5 99.6% 97.4% 70.1% 1.39× 1.03
Florida Gators +6.5 99.7% 97.4% 72.3% 1.35× 1.03
Florida Gators +7.5 99.8% 97.4% 74.5% 1.31× 1.03
Florida Gators +8.5 99.8% 97.4% 76.5% 1.27× 1.03
Florida Gators +9.5 99.9% 97.4% 78.7% 1.24× 1.03
Florida Gators +10.5 99.9% 97.4% 80.4% 1.21× 1.03
Florida Gators +12.5 99.9% 97.4% 83.8% 1.16× 1.03
Florida Gators +14.5 100.0% 97.4% 86.7% 1.12× 1.03
Florida Gators +16.5 100.0% 97.4% 89.1% 1.09× 1.03
Florida Gators +18.5 100.0% 97.4% 91.1% 1.07× 1.03
Florida Gators +20.5 100.0% 97.4% 92.7% 1.05× 1.03
Florida Gators −1.5 98.1% 97.4% 58.7% 1.66× 1.03
Florida Gators +1.5 98.9% 97.4% 61.2% 1.59× 1.03
Florida Gators −2.5 97.6% 97.4% 56.7% 1.72× 1.03
Florida Gators +2.5 99.1% 97.4% 63.3% 1.54× 1.03
Florida Gators −3.5 97.0% 97.4% 54.2% 1.80× 1.03
Florida Gators +3.5 99.3% 97.4% 65.7% 1.48× 1.03
Florida Gators −4.5 96.3% 97.4% 52.2% 1.87× 1.03
Florida Gators −5.5 95.4% 97.4% 49.7% 1.96× 1.03
Florida Gators −6.5 94.5% 91.1% 47.6% 1.91× 1.10
Florida Gators −7.5 93.3% 91.1% 44.8% 2.04× 1.10
Florida Gators −8.5 92.0% 91.1% 42.0% 2.17× 1.10
Florida Gators −9.5 90.6% 91.1% 39.3% 2.32× 1.10
Florida Gators −10.5 88.9% 85.9% 36.8% 2.33× 1.16
Florida Gators −12.5 85.0% 85.9% 32.1% 2.67× 1.16
Florida Gators −14.5 80.4% 81.1% 27.9% 2.91× 1.23
Florida Gators −16.5 75.0% 71.6% 24.3% 2.95× 1.40
Florida Gators −18.5 68.8% 66.7% 20.7% 3.22× 1.50
Florida Gators −20.5 62.1% 61.9% 18.0% 3.44× 1.62
Florida Atlantic Owls +20.5 37.9% 38.1% 82.0% 0.46× 2.63
Florida Atlantic Owls +18.5 31.2% 33.3% 79.3% 0.42× 3.01
Florida Atlantic Owls +16.5 25.1% 28.4% 75.7% 0.37× 3.53
Florida Atlantic Owls +14.5 19.6% 18.9% 72.1% 0.26× 5.29
Florida Atlantic Owls +12.5 15.0% 14.1% 67.9% 0.21× 7.09
Florida Atlantic Owls +10.5 11.1% 14.1% 63.2% 0.22× 7.09
Florida Atlantic Owls +8.5 8.0% 8.9% 58.0% 0.15× 11.25
Florida Atlantic Owls +9.5 9.4% 8.9% 60.7% 0.15× 11.25
Florida Atlantic Owls +7.5 6.7% 8.9% 55.2% 0.16× 11.25
Florida Atlantic Owls +6.5 5.5% 8.9% 52.4% 0.17× 11.25
Florida Atlantic Owls +5.5 4.6% 2.6% 50.3% 0.05× 38.72
Florida Atlantic Owls +1.5 1.9% 2.6% 41.3% 0.06× 38.73
Florida Atlantic Owls −1.5 1.1% 2.6% 38.8% 0.07× 38.74
Florida Atlantic Owls +2.5 2.4% 2.6% 43.3% 0.06× 38.73
Florida Atlantic Owls −2.5 0.9% 2.6% 36.7% 0.07× 38.74
Florida Atlantic Owls +3.5 3.0% 2.6% 45.8% 0.06× 38.73
Florida Atlantic Owls −3.5 0.7% 2.6% 34.3% 0.08× 38.74
Florida Atlantic Owls +4.5 3.7% 2.6% 47.8% 0.05× 38.73
Florida Atlantic Owls −4.5 0.5% 2.6% 32.2% 0.08× 38.74
Florida Atlantic Owls −5.5 0.4% 2.6% 29.9% 0.09× 38.74
Florida Atlantic Owls −6.5 0.3% 2.6% 27.7% 0.09× 38.74
Florida Atlantic Owls −7.5 0.2% 2.6% 25.5% 0.10× 38.74
Florida Atlantic Owls −8.5 0.2% 2.6% 23.5% 0.11× 38.74
Florida Atlantic Owls −9.5 0.1% 2.6% 21.3% 0.12× 38.74
Florida Atlantic Owls −10.5 0.1% 2.6% 19.6% 0.13× 38.74
Florida Atlantic Owls −12.5 0.1% 2.6% 16.2% 0.16× 38.74
Florida Atlantic Owls −14.5 0.0% 2.6% 13.3% 0.19× 38.74
Florida Atlantic Owls −16.5 0.0% 2.6% 10.9% 0.24× 38.74
Florida Atlantic Owls −18.5 0.0% 2.6% 8.9% 0.29× 38.74
Florida Atlantic Owls −20.5 0.0% 2.6% 7.3% 0.35× 38.74
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 72.8% 67.1% 66.7% 1.01× 1.49
1st half highest scoring 27.2% 32.9% 33.3% 0.99× 3.04
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 highest scoring 34.7% 31.9% 31.2% 1.02× 3.14
Q3 highest scoring 33.0% 31.9% 31.3% 1.02× 3.14
Q1 highest scoring 16.9% 18.3% 19.6% 0.94× 5.46
Q2 highest scoring 15.4% 18.3% 17.9% 1.02× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida Gators at HT / Florida Gators at FT 88.9% 89.2% 48.3% 1.85× 1.12
Florida Atlantic Owls at HT / Florida Gators at FT 7.8% 8.3% 9.8% 0.85× 12.09
Level at HT / Florida Gators at FT 1.9% 2.1% 1.9% 1.09× 47.76
Florida Gators at HT / Florida Atlantic Owls at FT 0.5% 2.1% 8.2% 0.26× 47.78
Level at HT / Florida Atlantic Owls at FT 0.1% 2.1% 1.8% 1.20× 47.79
Florida Atlantic Owls at HT / Florida Atlantic Owls at FT 0.8% 2.1% 30.1% 0.07× 47.78
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida Gators to win 98.6% 97.5% 59.9% 1.63× 1.03
Florida Atlantic Owls to win 1.4% 2.5% 40.1% 0.06× 39.57
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida Gators even 50.0% 50.5% 49.4% 1.02× 1.98
Florida Atlantic Owls even 50.3% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
Total points odd 50.2% 50.5% 51.5% 0.98× 1.98
Florida Gators odd 50.0% 49.5% 50.6% 0.98× 2.02
Florida Atlantic Owls odd 49.7% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
Total points even 49.8% 49.5% 48.5% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 98.6% 97.0% 95.6% 1.02× 1.03
Match to go to overtime 1.4% 3.0% 4.4% 0.67× 33.56
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida Gators to win Q1 79.0% 80.0% 54.7% 1.46× 1.25
Florida Atlantic Owls to win Q1 16.8% 15.6% 40.4% 0.39× 6.40
Q1 tied 4.2% 4.2% 4.9% 0.85× 23.96
Q1 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 over 24.5 89.0% 87.4% 81.8% 1.07× 1.14
Q1 under 40.5 87.8% 87.4% 89.9% 0.97× 1.14
Q1 over 27.5 78.1% 76.9% 67.7% 1.14× 1.30
Q1 under 37.5 76.4% 76.9% 81.6% 0.94× 1.30
Q1 over 29.5 68.3% 67.6% 56.9% 1.19× 1.48
Q1 under 35.5 66.3% 67.6% 73.2% 0.92× 1.48
Q1 over 31.5 57.0% 58.6% 46.0% 1.27× 1.71
Q1 under 33.5 54.9% 52.7% 64.0% 0.82× 1.90
Q1 over 32.5 51.1% 52.7% 40.9% 1.29× 1.90
Q1 under 32.5 48.9% 47.3% 59.1% 0.80× 2.11
Q1 over 33.5 45.1% 47.3% 36.0% 1.31× 2.11
Q1 under 31.5 43.0% 41.4% 54.0% 0.77× 2.42
Q1 over 35.5 33.7% 32.4% 26.8% 1.21× 3.08
Q1 under 29.5 31.7% 32.4% 43.1% 0.75× 3.08
Q1 over 37.5 23.6% 23.1% 18.4% 1.26× 4.33
Q1 under 27.5 21.9% 23.1% 32.3% 0.71× 4.33
Q1 over 40.5 12.2% 12.6% 10.1% 1.25× 7.95
Q1 under 24.5 11.0% 12.6% 18.2% 0.69× 7.95
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida Gators to win Q2 78.3% 80.8% 52.9% 1.53× 1.24
Florida Atlantic Owls to win Q2 17.5% 14.6% 41.5% 0.35× 6.86
Q2 tied 4.2% 4.4% 5.7% 0.77× 22.90
Q2 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 under 40.5 88.8% 87.3% 90.8% 0.96× 1.15
Q2 over 24.5 88.0% 87.3% 80.7% 1.08× 1.15
Q2 under 37.5 77.9% 76.8% 82.3% 0.93× 1.30
Q2 over 27.5 76.6% 76.8% 66.7% 1.15× 1.30
Q2 under 35.5 68.1% 67.4% 74.6% 0.90× 1.49
Q2 over 29.5 66.4% 67.4% 55.8% 1.21× 1.49
Q2 under 33.5 56.9% 58.2% 65.6% 0.89× 1.72
Q2 over 31.5 55.0% 52.7% 44.3% 1.19× 1.90
Q2 under 32.5 51.0% 52.7% 60.8% 0.87× 1.90
Q2 over 32.5 49.0% 47.3% 39.2% 1.21× 2.11
Q2 under 31.5 45.0% 47.3% 55.7% 0.85× 2.11
Q2 over 33.5 43.1% 41.8% 34.4% 1.22× 2.39
Q2 under 29.5 33.6% 32.6% 44.2% 0.74× 3.06
Q2 over 35.5 31.9% 32.6% 25.4% 1.29× 3.06
Q2 under 27.5 23.4% 23.2% 33.3% 0.70× 4.31
Q2 over 37.5 22.1% 23.2% 17.7% 1.31× 4.31
Q2 under 24.5 12.0% 12.7% 19.3% 0.66× 7.89
Q2 over 40.5 11.2% 12.7% 9.2% 1.38× 7.90
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida Gators to win Q3 80.5% 85.4% 53.3% 1.60× 1.17
Florida Atlantic Owls to win Q3 15.6% 15.0% 41.8% 0.36× 6.68
Q3 tied 3.9% 4.3% 4.9% 0.86× 23.46
Q3 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 over 27.5 88.1% 87.2% 80.0% 1.09× 1.15
Q3 under 43.5 87.5% 87.2% 90.2% 0.97× 1.15
Q3 over 30.5 77.0% 77.3% 66.8% 1.16× 1.29
Q3 under 40.5 76.3% 77.3% 81.9% 0.94× 1.29
Q3 over 32.5 67.2% 67.8% 56.1% 1.21× 1.48
Q3 under 38.5 66.5% 67.8% 73.9% 0.92× 1.48
Q3 over 34.5 56.2% 58.4% 45.4% 1.29× 1.71
Q3 under 36.5 55.4% 58.4% 64.6% 0.90× 1.71
Q3 over 35.5 50.4% 52.3% 40.3% 1.30× 1.91
Q3 under 35.5 49.6% 47.7% 59.7% 0.80× 2.10
Q3 over 36.5 44.6% 41.6% 35.4% 1.18× 2.40
Q3 under 34.5 43.8% 41.6% 54.6% 0.76× 2.40
Q3 over 38.5 33.5% 32.2% 26.1% 1.23× 3.10
Q3 under 32.5 32.8% 32.2% 43.9% 0.73× 3.10
Q3 over 40.5 23.7% 22.7% 18.1% 1.25× 4.40
Q3 under 30.5 23.0% 22.7% 33.2% 0.69× 4.40
Q3 over 43.5 12.5% 12.8% 9.8% 1.30× 7.83
Q3 under 27.5 11.9% 12.8% 20.0% 0.64× 7.83
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida Gators to win Q4 80.1% 74.5% 52.8% 1.41× 1.34
Florida Atlantic Owls to win Q4 16.1% 22.5% 41.5% 0.54× 4.44
Q4 tied 3.9% 5.2% 5.7% 0.91× 19.30
Q4 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 over 27.5 86.9% 85.6% 78.9% 1.09× 1.17
Q4 under 43.5 85.9% 85.6% 88.6% 0.97× 1.17
Q4 over 30.5 76.0% 76.9% 66.3% 1.16× 1.30
Q4 under 40.5 74.8% 71.5% 80.6% 0.89× 1.40
Q4 over 32.5 66.7% 67.4% 55.4% 1.22× 1.48
Q4 under 38.5 65.3% 67.4% 73.1% 0.92× 1.48
Q4 over 34.5 56.2% 58.4% 45.6% 1.28× 1.71
Q4 under 36.5 54.7% 52.5% 64.3% 0.82× 1.91
Q4 over 35.5 50.7% 52.5% 40.6% 1.29× 1.91
Q4 under 35.5 49.3% 47.5% 59.4% 0.80× 2.11
Q4 over 36.5 45.3% 47.5% 35.7% 1.33× 2.11
Q4 under 34.5 43.8% 41.6% 54.4% 0.76× 2.40
Q4 over 38.5 34.7% 32.6% 26.9% 1.21× 3.07
Q4 under 32.5 33.3% 32.6% 44.6% 0.73× 3.07
Q4 over 40.5 25.2% 28.5% 19.4% 1.47× 3.51
Q4 under 30.5 24.0% 23.1% 33.7% 0.68× 4.33
Q4 over 43.5 14.1% 14.4% 11.4% 1.26× 6.95
Q4 under 27.5 13.1% 14.4% 21.1% 0.68× 6.95
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida Atlantic Owls under 66.5 88.0% 83.9% 62.7% 1.34× 1.19
Florida Gators under 90.5 86.5% 83.9% 94.5% 0.89× 1.19
Florida Atlantic Owls over 46.5 86.8% 83.9% 89.7% 0.94× 1.19
Florida Gators over 70.5 84.4% 80.7% 39.7% 2.03× 1.24
Florida Atlantic Owls under 63.5 80.2% 80.7% 53.9% 1.50× 1.24
Florida Gators under 87.5 78.5% 75.1% 92.3% 0.81× 1.33
Florida Atlantic Owls over 49.5 77.0% 75.1% 85.1% 0.88× 1.33
Florida Gators over 73.5 75.6% 75.1% 31.5% 2.38× 1.33
Florida Atlantic Owls under 61.5 73.5% 70.7% 47.9% 1.48× 1.41
Florida Gators under 85.5 71.8% 70.7% 90.2% 0.78× 1.41
Florida Gators over 75.5 68.5% 66.4% 26.8% 2.48× 1.51
Florida Atlantic Owls over 51.5 69.2% 66.4% 81.0% 0.82× 1.51
Florida Atlantic Owls under 59.5 65.8% 66.4% 41.2% 1.61× 1.51
Florida Gators under 83.5 64.3% 61.2% 87.7% 0.70× 1.63
Florida Gators over 77.5 60.6% 61.2% 22.6% 2.71× 1.63
Florida Atlantic Owls over 53.5 60.6% 61.2% 76.3% 0.80× 1.63
Florida Atlantic Owls under 57.5 57.3% 57.1% 34.9% 1.64× 1.75
Florida Gators under 81.5 56.1% 57.1% 84.6% 0.68× 1.75
Florida Gators over 79.5 52.3% 52.3% 18.7% 2.79× 1.91
Florida Gators under 80.5 51.9% 52.3% 82.9% 0.63× 1.91
Florida Atlantic Owls over 55.5 51.6% 52.3% 70.8% 0.74× 1.91
Florida Atlantic Owls under 56.5 52.8% 52.3% 32.0% 1.63× 1.91
Florida Gators under 79.5 47.7% 47.7% 81.3% 0.59× 2.09
Florida Gators over 80.5 48.1% 47.7% 17.1% 2.80× 2.09
Florida Atlantic Owls under 55.5 48.4% 47.7% 29.2% 1.63× 2.09
Florida Atlantic Owls over 56.5 47.2% 47.7% 68.0% 0.70× 2.09
Florida Gators over 81.5 43.9% 42.9% 15.4% 2.78× 2.33
Florida Atlantic Owls over 57.5 42.7% 42.9% 65.1% 0.66× 2.33
Florida Gators under 77.5 39.4% 38.8% 77.4% 0.50× 2.58
Florida Atlantic Owls under 53.5 39.4% 38.8% 23.7% 1.64× 2.58
Florida Gators over 83.5 35.7% 38.8% 12.3% 3.15× 2.58
Florida Atlantic Owls over 59.5 34.2% 33.6% 58.8% 0.57× 2.98
Florida Gators under 75.5 31.5% 33.6% 73.2% 0.46× 2.98
Florida Atlantic Owls under 51.5 30.8% 33.6% 19.0% 1.77× 2.98
Florida Gators over 85.5 28.2% 29.3% 9.8% 2.99× 3.42
Florida Atlantic Owls over 61.5 26.5% 29.3% 52.1% 0.56× 3.42
Florida Gators under 73.5 24.4% 24.9% 68.5% 0.36× 4.02
Florida Atlantic Owls under 49.5 23.0% 24.9% 14.9% 1.67× 4.02
Florida Gators over 87.5 21.5% 24.9% 7.7% 3.24× 4.02
Florida Atlantic Owls over 63.5 19.8% 19.3% 46.1% 0.42× 5.18
Florida Gators under 70.5 15.6% 19.3% 60.3% 0.32× 5.18
Florida Gators over 90.5 13.5% 16.1% 5.5% 2.94× 6.21
Florida Atlantic Owls under 46.5 13.2% 16.1% 10.3% 1.56× 6.21
Florida Atlantic Owls over 66.5 12.0% 16.1% 37.3% 0.43× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 116.5 points 92.1% 88.8% 77.2% 1.15× 1.13
Under 156.5 points 91.8% 88.8% 91.3% 0.97× 1.13
Under 151.5 points 85.4% 85.0% 87.3% 0.97× 1.18
Over 121.5 points 84.9% 80.6% 67.7% 1.19× 1.24
Under 146.5 points 76.4% 75.6% 80.9% 0.93× 1.32
Over 126.5 points 74.7% 70.8% 57.4% 1.24× 1.41
Under 143.5 points 69.7% 65.9% 76.7% 0.86× 1.52
Over 129.5 points 67.4% 65.9% 50.5% 1.30× 1.52
Under 141.5 points 64.8% 61.5% 73.4% 0.84× 1.63
Over 131.5 points 62.2% 61.5% 46.1% 1.33× 1.63
Under 139.5 points 59.6% 56.5% 69.9% 0.81× 1.77
Over 133.5 points 56.8% 56.5% 42.0% 1.35× 1.77
Under 137.5 points 54.2% 52.3% 66.2% 0.79× 1.91
Over 135.5 points 51.3% 52.3% 37.6% 1.39× 1.91
Under 136.5 points 51.5% 52.3% 64.2% 0.81× 1.91
Under 135.5 points 48.7% 47.7% 62.4% 0.76× 2.10
Over 136.5 points 48.5% 47.7% 35.8% 1.33× 2.10
Over 137.5 points 45.8% 47.7% 33.8% 1.41× 2.10
Under 133.5 points 43.2% 43.5% 58.0% 0.75× 2.30
Over 139.5 points 40.4% 43.5% 30.1% 1.44× 2.30
Under 131.5 points 37.8% 38.5% 53.9% 0.71× 2.60
Over 141.5 points 35.2% 38.5% 26.6% 1.45× 2.60
Under 129.5 points 32.6% 34.1% 49.5% 0.69× 2.93
Over 143.5 points 30.3% 34.1% 23.3% 1.46× 2.93
Under 126.5 points 25.3% 29.2% 42.6% 0.68× 3.43
Over 146.5 points 23.6% 24.4% 19.1% 1.28× 4.10
Under 121.5 points 15.1% 19.4% 32.3% 0.60× 5.15
Over 151.5 points 14.6% 15.0% 12.8% 1.17× 6.68
Over 156.5 points 8.2% 11.2% 8.7% 1.29× 8.96
Under 116.5 points 7.9% 11.2% 22.8% 0.49× 8.96
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida Gators to win both halves 80.6% 82.1% 36.0% 2.28× 1.22
Florida Atlantic Owls to win both halves 0.3% 3.0% 20.4% 0.15× 33.83
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida Gators by 26+ 44.0% 48.0% 12.6% 3.81× 2.08
Florida Gators by 21-25 18.1% 16.8% 5.4% 3.11× 5.97
Florida Gators by 16-20 15.7% 16.8% 8.0% 2.08× 5.97
Florida Gators by 11-15 11.2% 12.3% 10.8% 1.14× 8.11
Florida Gators by 6-10 6.5% 7.5% 12.9% 0.58× 13.40
Florida Gators by 1-5 3.1% 2.0% 10.2% 0.20× 49.30
Florida Atlantic Owls by 1-5 1.0% 2.0% 10.2% 0.20× 49.32
Florida Atlantic Owls by 6-10 0.3% 2.0% 10.3% 0.20× 49.33
Florida Atlantic Owls by 11-15 0.1% 2.0% 7.6% 0.27× 49.33
Florida Atlantic Owls by 16-20 0.0% 2.0% 4.8% 0.43× 49.33
Florida Atlantic Owls by 21-25 0.0% 2.0% 2.7% 0.76× 49.33
Florida Atlantic Owls by 26+ 0.0% 2.0% 4.6% 0.44× 49.33
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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