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Florida State Seminoles v Green Bay Phoenix — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 20 November 2026 · NCAAB · 2027

NCAAB results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Florida State Seminoles win
89.1%
Draw
0.0%
Green Bay Phoenix win
10.9%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 82.72–69.91 83-70 0% 50% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida State Seminoles to score 100+ 4.3% 0.4% 3.4% 0.10× 282.51
Florida State Seminoles to score 110+ 0.3% 0.4% 0.7% 0.52× 283.30
Florida State Seminoles to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.87× 283.35
Florida State Seminoles to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 19.47× 283.36
Green Bay Phoenix to score 100+ 0.1% 0.4% 1.1% 0.33× 283.34
Green Bay Phoenix to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1.95× 283.36
Green Bay Phoenix to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 12.98× 283.36
Green Bay Phoenix to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 38.95× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.87× 283.35
H1 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida State Seminoles to win H1 74.4% 73.0% 57.9% 1.26× 1.37
Florida State Seminoles to win H1 74.3% 73.0% 57.9% 1.26× 1.37
Green Bay Phoenix to win H1 22.1% 21.4% 38.2% 0.56× 4.68
Green Bay Phoenix to win H1 22.0% 21.4% 38.2% 0.56× 4.68
H1 tied 3.6% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.86
H1 tied 3.6% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.86
H1 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 84.5 87.6% 87.7% 91.7% 0.96× 1.14
H1 over 60.5 86.4% 87.7% 77.9% 1.13× 1.14
H1 under 80.5 78.3% 77.4% 85.2% 0.91× 1.29
H1 under 80.5 79.0% 77.4% 85.2% 0.91× 1.29
H1 over 64.5 77.2% 77.4% 65.3% 1.19× 1.29
H1 over 64.5 76.5% 77.4% 65.3% 1.19× 1.29
H1 under 77.5 69.7% 67.4% 78.3% 0.86× 1.48
H1 under 77.5 69.1% 67.4% 78.3% 0.86× 1.48
H1 over 67.5 67.0% 67.4% 54.4% 1.24× 1.48
H1 over 67.5 67.6% 67.4% 54.4% 1.24× 1.48
H1 under 75.5 62.2% 62.7% 72.8% 0.86× 1.59
H1 under 75.5 62.6% 62.7% 72.8% 0.86× 1.59
H1 over 69.5 60.3% 62.7% 46.9% 1.34× 1.59
H1 over 69.5 60.0% 58.2% 46.9% 1.24× 1.72
H1 under 73.5 55.1% 58.2% 66.6% 0.87× 1.72
H1 under 73.5 54.9% 52.6% 66.6% 0.79× 1.90
H1 over 71.5 52.6% 52.6% 40.0% 1.32× 1.90
H1 over 71.5 52.7% 52.6% 40.0% 1.32× 1.90
H1 under 72.5 51.2% 52.6% 63.3% 0.83× 1.90
H1 under 72.5 51.2% 52.6% 63.3% 0.83× 1.90
H1 over 72.5 48.8% 47.4% 36.7% 1.29× 2.11
H1 over 72.5 48.8% 47.4% 36.7% 1.29× 2.11
H1 under 71.5 47.4% 47.4% 60.0% 0.79× 2.11
H1 under 71.5 47.3% 47.4% 60.0% 0.79× 2.11
H1 over 73.5 45.1% 47.4% 33.4% 1.42× 2.11
H1 over 73.5 44.9% 41.8% 33.4% 1.25× 2.39
H1 under 69.5 40.0% 41.8% 53.1% 0.79× 2.39
H1 under 69.5 39.7% 37.3% 53.1% 0.70× 2.68
H1 over 75.5 37.8% 37.3% 27.2% 1.37× 2.68
H1 over 75.5 37.4% 37.3% 27.2% 1.37× 2.68
H1 under 67.5 33.0% 32.6% 45.6% 0.71× 3.07
H1 under 67.5 32.4% 32.6% 45.6% 0.71× 3.07
H1 over 77.5 30.9% 32.6% 21.7% 1.50× 3.07
H1 over 77.5 30.3% 32.6% 21.7% 1.50× 3.07
H1 under 64.5 23.5% 22.6% 34.8% 0.65× 4.43
H1 under 64.5 22.8% 22.6% 34.8% 0.65× 4.43
H1 over 80.5 21.7% 22.6% 14.8% 1.52× 4.43
H1 over 80.5 21.0% 22.6% 14.8% 1.52× 4.43
H1 under 60.5 13.6% 12.3% 22.1% 0.56× 8.13
H1 over 84.5 12.4% 12.3% 8.3% 1.48× 8.14
H2 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida State Seminoles to win H2 76.1% 73.9% 56.9% 1.30× 1.35
Florida State Seminoles to win H2 76.0% 73.9% 57.5% 1.29× 1.35
Green Bay Phoenix to win H2 20.7% 26.8% 38.5% 0.70× 3.73
Green Bay Phoenix to win H2 20.6% 26.8% 38.9% 0.69× 3.73
H2 tied 3.3% 3.9% 4.1% 0.97× 25.36
H2 tied 3.3% 3.9% 4.2% 0.95× 25.36
H2 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 92.5 85.7% 85.2% 86.9% 0.98× 1.17
H2 over 68.5 85.6% 85.2% 77.5% 1.10× 1.17
H2 under 88.5 76.8% 75.8% 83.3% 0.91× 1.32
H2 over 72.5 76.6% 75.8% 63.4% 1.20× 1.32
H2 over 72.5 76.0% 75.8% 65.9% 1.15× 1.32
H2 under 88.5 76.2% 75.8% 79.8% 0.95× 1.32
H2 under 85.5 67.2% 66.4% 73.3% 0.91× 1.51
H2 over 75.5 67.5% 66.4% 53.4% 1.24× 1.51
H2 under 85.5 67.7% 66.4% 76.8% 0.86× 1.51
H2 over 75.5 67.0% 66.4% 56.4% 1.18× 1.51
H2 over 77.5 60.4% 61.6% 50.2% 1.23× 1.62
H2 under 83.5 60.6% 61.6% 68.0% 0.91× 1.62
H2 over 77.5 60.7% 61.6% 47.0% 1.31× 1.62
H2 under 83.5 60.9% 61.6% 71.6% 0.86× 1.62
H2 over 79.5 53.4% 52.4% 43.8% 1.20× 1.91
H2 under 81.5 53.7% 52.4% 62.2% 0.84× 1.91
H2 over 79.5 53.5% 52.4% 40.3% 1.30× 1.91
H2 under 81.5 53.8% 52.4% 65.8% 0.80× 1.91
H2 under 80.5 50.1% 52.4% 59.2% 0.88× 1.91
H2 under 80.5 50.1% 52.4% 62.9% 0.83× 1.91
H2 over 80.5 49.9% 47.6% 40.8% 1.17× 2.10
H2 over 80.5 49.9% 47.6% 37.1% 1.28× 2.10
H2 under 79.5 46.6% 47.6% 56.2% 0.85× 2.10
H2 over 81.5 46.3% 47.6% 37.8% 1.26× 2.10
H2 under 79.5 46.5% 47.6% 59.8% 0.80× 2.10
H2 over 81.5 46.2% 47.6% 34.2% 1.39× 2.10
H2 under 77.5 39.6% 38.4% 49.8% 0.77× 2.61
H2 over 83.5 39.4% 38.4% 32.0% 1.20× 2.61
H2 under 77.5 39.3% 38.4% 53.0% 0.72× 2.61
H2 over 83.5 39.1% 38.4% 28.4% 1.35× 2.61
H2 under 75.5 33.0% 33.6% 43.6% 0.77× 2.97
H2 over 85.5 32.8% 33.6% 26.7% 1.26× 2.97
H2 under 75.5 32.5% 33.6% 46.6% 0.72× 2.97
H2 over 85.5 32.3% 33.6% 23.2% 1.45× 2.97
H2 under 72.5 24.0% 24.2% 34.1% 0.71× 4.13
H2 over 88.5 23.8% 24.2% 20.2% 1.20× 4.13
H2 under 72.5 23.4% 24.2% 36.6% 0.66× 4.13
H2 over 88.5 23.2% 24.2% 16.7% 1.45× 4.13
H2 under 68.5 14.4% 14.8% 22.5% 0.66× 6.76
H2 over 92.5 14.3% 14.8% 13.1% 1.13× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida State Seminoles leading at half time 74.3% 73.5% 57.9% 1.27× 1.36
Green Bay Phoenix leading at half time 22.1% 20.9% 38.2% 0.55× 4.78
Level at half time 3.6% 3.8% 3.9% 0.97× 26.41
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida State Seminoles +14.5 99.4% 97.4% 92.2% 1.06× 1.03
Florida State Seminoles +16.5 99.7% 97.4% 94.0% 1.04× 1.03
Florida State Seminoles +18.5 99.8% 97.4% 95.4% 1.02× 1.03
Florida State Seminoles +20.5 99.9% 97.4% 96.5% 1.01× 1.03
Florida State Seminoles +5.5 95.5% 97.4% 76.4% 1.28× 1.03
Florida State Seminoles +6.5 96.3% 97.4% 78.8% 1.24× 1.03
Florida State Seminoles +7.5 97.0% 97.4% 81.0% 1.20× 1.03
Florida State Seminoles +8.5 97.6% 97.4% 83.3% 1.17× 1.03
Florida State Seminoles +9.5 98.1% 97.4% 85.3% 1.14× 1.03
Florida State Seminoles +10.5 98.5% 97.4% 87.2% 1.12× 1.03
Florida State Seminoles +12.5 99.1% 97.4% 89.9% 1.08× 1.03
Florida State Seminoles +4.5 94.6% 91.1% 73.7% 1.24× 1.10
Florida State Seminoles +2.5 92.2% 91.1% 68.0% 1.34× 1.10
Florida State Seminoles +3.5 93.5% 91.1% 70.8% 1.29× 1.10
Florida State Seminoles +1.5 90.7% 91.1% 65.4% 1.39× 1.10
Florida State Seminoles −1.5 87.0% 85.9% 60.8% 1.41× 1.16
Florida State Seminoles −2.5 84.7% 81.1% 57.7% 1.41× 1.23
Florida State Seminoles −3.5 82.2% 81.1% 54.1% 1.50× 1.23
Florida State Seminoles −4.5 79.5% 76.5% 50.7% 1.51× 1.31
Florida State Seminoles −5.5 76.6% 76.5% 47.0% 1.63× 1.31
Green Bay Phoenix +20.5 75.9% 76.5% 86.5% 0.88× 1.31
Florida State Seminoles −6.5 73.5% 71.6% 44.3% 1.62× 1.40
Florida State Seminoles −7.5 70.2% 71.6% 41.3% 1.73× 1.40
Green Bay Phoenix +18.5 69.7% 66.7% 83.9% 0.80× 1.50
Florida State Seminoles −8.5 66.8% 66.7% 38.5% 1.74× 1.50
Florida State Seminoles −9.5 63.3% 61.9% 35.5% 1.75× 1.62
Green Bay Phoenix +16.5 62.8% 61.9% 80.7% 0.77× 1.62
Florida State Seminoles −10.5 59.6% 57.1% 32.6% 1.75× 1.75
Green Bay Phoenix +14.5 55.5% 57.1% 77.2% 0.74× 1.75
Florida State Seminoles −12.5 52.1% 52.4% 27.6% 1.90× 1.91
Green Bay Phoenix +12.5 47.9% 47.6% 72.4% 0.66× 2.10
Florida State Seminoles −14.5 44.5% 42.9% 22.8% 1.88× 2.33
Green Bay Phoenix +10.5 40.4% 42.9% 67.4% 0.64× 2.33
Green Bay Phoenix +9.5 36.7% 38.1% 64.5% 0.59× 2.63
Florida State Seminoles −16.5 37.2% 38.1% 19.3% 1.97× 2.63
Green Bay Phoenix +8.5 33.2% 33.3% 61.5% 0.54× 3.01
Florida State Seminoles −18.5 30.3% 33.3% 16.1% 2.06× 3.01
Green Bay Phoenix +7.5 29.8% 28.4% 58.7% 0.48× 3.53
Green Bay Phoenix +6.5 26.5% 28.4% 55.7% 0.51× 3.53
Green Bay Phoenix +5.5 23.4% 23.5% 53.0% 0.44× 4.25
Florida State Seminoles −20.5 24.1% 23.5% 13.5% 1.75× 4.25
Green Bay Phoenix +4.5 20.5% 23.5% 49.3% 0.48× 4.25
Green Bay Phoenix +3.5 17.8% 18.9% 45.9% 0.41× 5.29
Green Bay Phoenix +2.5 15.3% 18.9% 42.3% 0.45× 5.30
Green Bay Phoenix +1.5 13.0% 14.1% 39.2% 0.36× 7.09
Green Bay Phoenix −1.5 9.3% 8.9% 34.6% 0.26× 11.25
Green Bay Phoenix −2.5 7.8% 8.9% 32.0% 0.28× 11.25
Green Bay Phoenix −3.5 6.5% 8.9% 29.3% 0.30× 11.25
Green Bay Phoenix −4.5 5.4% 8.9% 26.3% 0.34× 11.25
Green Bay Phoenix −5.5 4.5% 2.6% 23.6% 0.11× 38.72
Green Bay Phoenix −6.5 3.7% 2.6% 21.2% 0.12× 38.73
Green Bay Phoenix −7.5 3.0% 2.6% 19.0% 0.14× 38.73
Green Bay Phoenix −8.5 2.4% 2.6% 16.7% 0.16× 38.73
Green Bay Phoenix −9.5 1.9% 2.6% 14.7% 0.18× 38.73
Green Bay Phoenix −10.5 1.5% 2.6% 12.8% 0.20× 38.73
Green Bay Phoenix −12.5 0.9% 2.6% 10.1% 0.26× 38.74
Green Bay Phoenix −14.5 0.6% 2.6% 7.8% 0.33× 38.74
Green Bay Phoenix −16.5 0.3% 2.6% 6.0% 0.43× 38.74
Green Bay Phoenix −18.5 0.2% 2.6% 4.6% 0.57× 38.74
Green Bay Phoenix −20.5 0.1% 2.6% 3.5% 0.75× 38.74
Highest scoring half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 78.5% 71.6% 72.5% 0.99× 1.40
H2 highest scoring 80.1% 71.5% 70.4% 1.02× 1.40
H1 highest scoring 19.9% 28.5% 29.6% 0.96× 3.51
1st half highest scoring 21.5% 28.4% 27.5% 1.03× 3.53
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida State Seminoles at HT / Florida State Seminoles at FT 70.7% 73.1% 48.6% 1.50× 1.37
Green Bay Phoenix at HT / Florida State Seminoles at FT 15.4% 15.4% 12.4% 1.25× 6.47
Green Bay Phoenix at HT / Green Bay Phoenix at FT 6.7% 8.3% 25.8% 0.32× 12.09
Florida State Seminoles at HT / Green Bay Phoenix at FT 3.7% 2.1% 9.3% 0.22× 47.73
Level at HT / Florida State Seminoles at FT 3.0% 2.1% 2.3% 0.92× 47.74
Level at HT / Green Bay Phoenix at FT 0.6% 2.1% 1.6% 1.28× 47.78
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida State Seminoles to win 89.1% 85.6% 63.2% 1.35× 1.17
Green Bay Phoenix to win 10.9% 14.4% 36.8% 0.39× 6.93
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida State Seminoles even 50.0% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
Green Bay Phoenix even 50.0% 50.5% 50.4% 1.00× 1.98
Total points odd 50.9% 50.5% 51.6% 0.98× 1.98
Florida State Seminoles odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
Green Bay Phoenix odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.6% 1.00× 2.02
Total points even 49.1% 49.5% 48.4% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 94.8% 94.0% 94.2% 1.00× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 5.2% 6.0% 5.8% 1.04× 16.66
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida State Seminoles under 93.5 86.3% 83.9% 92.1% 0.91× 1.19
Green Bay Phoenix under 80.5 86.9% 83.9% 78.8% 1.07× 1.19
Florida State Seminoles over 73.5 83.2% 80.7% 57.4% 1.41× 1.24
Green Bay Phoenix over 60.5 83.6% 80.7% 82.0% 0.98× 1.24
Florida State Seminoles under 90.5 78.4% 75.1% 88.1% 0.85× 1.33
Green Bay Phoenix under 77.5 79.1% 75.1% 70.9% 1.06× 1.33
Florida State Seminoles over 76.5 74.4% 70.7% 47.7% 1.48× 1.41
Green Bay Phoenix over 63.5 74.6% 70.7% 73.9% 0.96× 1.41
Florida State Seminoles under 88.5 71.9% 70.7% 84.8% 0.83× 1.41
Green Bay Phoenix under 75.5 72.6% 70.7% 64.7% 1.09× 1.41
Florida State Seminoles over 78.5 67.3% 66.4% 41.6% 1.60× 1.51
Green Bay Phoenix over 65.5 67.4% 66.4% 67.8% 0.98× 1.51
Green Bay Phoenix under 73.5 65.2% 66.4% 58.3% 1.14× 1.51
Florida State Seminoles under 86.5 64.6% 61.2% 80.8% 0.76× 1.63
Florida State Seminoles over 80.5 59.6% 57.1% 35.1% 1.63× 1.75
Green Bay Phoenix over 67.5 59.5% 57.1% 61.6% 0.93× 1.75
Florida State Seminoles under 84.5 56.7% 57.1% 76.1% 0.75× 1.75
Green Bay Phoenix under 71.5 57.1% 57.1% 51.8% 1.10× 1.75
Florida State Seminoles over 82.5 51.5% 52.3% 29.2% 1.79× 1.91
Florida State Seminoles under 83.5 52.6% 52.3% 73.5% 0.71× 1.91
Green Bay Phoenix over 69.5 51.2% 52.3% 54.8% 0.95× 1.91
Green Bay Phoenix under 70.5 53.0% 52.3% 48.7% 1.07× 1.91
Florida State Seminoles under 82.5 48.5% 47.7% 70.8% 0.67× 2.09
Florida State Seminoles over 83.5 47.4% 47.7% 26.5% 1.80× 2.09
Green Bay Phoenix under 69.5 48.8% 47.7% 45.2% 1.06× 2.09
Green Bay Phoenix over 70.5 47.0% 47.7% 51.4% 0.93× 2.09
Florida State Seminoles over 84.5 43.3% 42.9% 23.9% 1.80× 2.33
Green Bay Phoenix over 71.5 42.9% 42.9% 48.2% 0.89× 2.33
Florida State Seminoles under 80.5 40.4% 42.9% 64.9% 0.66× 2.33
Green Bay Phoenix under 67.5 40.5% 42.9% 38.4% 1.12× 2.33
Florida State Seminoles over 86.5 35.4% 38.8% 19.2% 2.02× 2.58
Green Bay Phoenix over 73.5 34.8% 33.6% 41.7% 0.81× 2.98
Florida State Seminoles under 78.5 32.7% 33.6% 58.4% 0.58× 2.98
Green Bay Phoenix under 65.5 32.6% 33.6% 32.2% 1.04× 2.98
Florida State Seminoles over 88.5 28.1% 29.3% 15.2% 1.93× 3.42
Green Bay Phoenix over 75.5 27.4% 29.3% 35.3% 0.83× 3.42
Florida State Seminoles under 76.5 25.6% 29.3% 52.3% 0.56× 3.42
Green Bay Phoenix under 63.5 25.4% 29.3% 26.1% 1.12× 3.42
Florida State Seminoles over 90.5 21.6% 24.9% 11.9% 2.09× 4.02
Green Bay Phoenix over 77.5 20.9% 24.9% 29.1% 0.85× 4.02
Florida State Seminoles under 73.5 16.8% 19.3% 42.6% 0.45× 5.18
Green Bay Phoenix under 60.5 16.4% 19.3% 18.0% 1.07× 5.18
Florida State Seminoles over 93.5 13.7% 16.1% 7.9% 2.03× 6.21
Green Bay Phoenix over 80.5 13.1% 16.1% 21.2% 0.76× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 132.5 points 89.6% 85.0% 78.3% 1.09× 1.18
Under 172.5 points 89.2% 85.0% 90.5% 0.94× 1.18
Over 137.5 points 82.8% 80.6% 69.0% 1.17× 1.24
Under 167.5 points 82.3% 80.6% 85.6% 0.94× 1.24
Over 142.5 points 73.7% 70.8% 58.3% 1.21× 1.41
Under 162.5 points 73.1% 70.8% 79.4% 0.89× 1.41
Over 145.5 points 67.2% 65.9% 51.8% 1.27× 1.52
Under 159.5 points 66.6% 65.9% 75.0% 0.88× 1.52
Over 147.5 points 62.6% 61.5% 47.8% 1.29× 1.63
Under 157.5 points 61.9% 61.5% 71.6% 0.86× 1.63
Over 149.5 points 57.8% 56.5% 43.7% 1.29× 1.77
Under 155.5 points 57.1% 56.5% 68.1% 0.83× 1.77
Over 151.5 points 52.8% 52.3% 39.4% 1.33× 1.91
Under 153.5 points 52.1% 52.3% 64.6% 0.81× 1.91
Over 152.5 points 50.4% 52.3% 37.4% 1.40× 1.91
Under 152.5 points 49.6% 47.7% 62.7% 0.76× 2.10
Under 151.5 points 47.2% 47.7% 60.6% 0.79× 2.10
Over 153.5 points 47.9% 47.7% 35.4% 1.35× 2.10
Under 149.5 points 42.2% 43.5% 56.3% 0.77× 2.30
Over 155.5 points 42.9% 43.5% 31.9% 1.36× 2.30
Over 157.5 points 38.1% 38.5% 28.4% 1.36× 2.60
Under 147.5 points 37.4% 38.5% 52.2% 0.74× 2.60
Under 145.5 points 32.8% 34.1% 48.2% 0.71× 2.93
Over 159.5 points 33.4% 34.1% 25.0% 1.36× 2.93
Over 162.5 points 27.0% 29.2% 20.6% 1.41× 3.43
Under 142.5 points 26.3% 29.2% 41.7% 0.70× 3.43
Under 137.5 points 17.2% 19.4% 31.0% 0.63× 5.15
Over 167.5 points 17.7% 19.4% 14.4% 1.35× 5.15
Under 132.5 points 10.4% 15.0% 21.7% 0.69× 6.69
Over 172.5 points 10.8% 15.0% 9.5% 1.58× 6.69
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida State Seminoles to win both halves 54.1% 50.5% 33.2% 1.52× 1.98
Green Bay Phoenix to win both halves 2.7% 3.0% 14.5% 0.20× 33.68
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Florida State Seminoles by 11-15 18.8% 16.8% 11.6% 1.45× 5.97
Florida State Seminoles by 6-10 17.0% 16.8% 14.4% 1.16× 5.97
Florida State Seminoles by 16-20 16.7% 16.8% 7.6% 2.20× 5.97
Florida State Seminoles by 1-5 12.5% 12.3% 16.2% 0.76× 8.11
Florida State Seminoles by 21-25 12.1% 12.3% 5.6% 2.22× 8.11
Florida State Seminoles by 26+ 12.0% 12.3% 7.9% 1.56× 8.11
Green Bay Phoenix by 1-5 6.5% 7.5% 13.2% 0.57× 13.40
Green Bay Phoenix by 6-10 3.0% 2.0% 10.8% 0.19× 49.30
Green Bay Phoenix by 11-15 1.1% 2.0% 6.1% 0.34× 49.32
Green Bay Phoenix by 16-20 0.3% 2.0% 3.3% 0.61× 49.33
Green Bay Phoenix by 21-25 0.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.06× 49.33
Green Bay Phoenix by 26+ 0.0% 2.0% 1.6% 1.30× 49.33
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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