Golden State Warriors v Los Angeles Lakers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 7 October 2026 · NBA · 2027

NBA results-only Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 03:45 UTC

Golden State Warriors

02:00 UTC

Los Angeles Lakers

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Golden State Warriors win

45.4%

Draw

0.0%

Los Angeles Lakers win

54.6%

45055

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
nba-normal	45055	112.54–114.17	112-114 0%	50%	0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Los Angeles Lakers to score 100+	89.5%	85.0%	85.9%	0.99×	1.18
Golden State Warriors to score 100+	86.4%	85.0%	89.3%	0.95×	1.18
Both sides to score 100+	78.2%	77.0%	77.5%	0.99×	1.30
Los Angeles Lakers to score 110+	65.6%	63.8%	60.9%	1.05×	1.57
Golden State Warriors to score 110+	60.0%	61.8%	67.0%	0.92×	1.62
Los Angeles Lakers to score 120+	32.6%	31.4%	29.7%	1.06×	3.19
Golden State Warriors to score 120+	27.8%	27.5%	36.5%	0.75×	3.63
Los Angeles Lakers to score 130+	9.6%	8.8%	10.0%	0.88×	11.34
Golden State Warriors to score 130+	7.6%	8.8%	12.8%	0.69×	11.37

H1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Los Angeles Lakers to win H1	51.2%	51.8%	44.1%	1.17×	1.93
Golden State Warriors to win H1	45.3%	47.3%	52.8%	0.90×	2.11
H1 tied	3.5%	3.9%	3.1%	1.25×	25.86

H1 total 40

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H1 under 127.5	83.1%	83.2%	84.8%	0.98×	1.20
H1 over 103.5	80.7%	83.2%	80.7%	1.03×	1.20
H1 under 126.5	82.4%	82.5%	82.8%	1.00×	1.21
H1 over 102.5	82.0%	82.5%	83.0%	0.99×	1.21
H1 under 123.5	74.4%	74.0%	76.0%	0.97×	1.35
H1 over 107.5	71.3%	73.9%	70.4%	1.05×	1.35
H1 under 122.5	73.3%	73.5%	74.0%	0.99×	1.36
H1 over 106.5	72.9%	73.5%	73.3%	1.00×	1.36
H1 under 120.5	66.5%	68.1%	68.4%	0.99×	1.47
H1 under 119.5	65.2%	67.4%	65.9%	1.02×	1.48
H1 over 110.5	63.1%	63.3%	61.9%	1.02×	1.58
H1 under 118.5	60.8%	63.3%	62.9%	1.01×	1.58
H1 over 109.5	64.7%	62.7%	65.0%	0.97×	1.59
H1 under 117.5	59.4%	58.2%	59.6%	0.98×	1.72
H1 over 111.5	58.9%	58.2%	59.0%	0.99×	1.72
H1 over 112.5	57.2%	58.1%	55.8%	1.04×	1.72
H1 over 113.5	52.8%	52.6%	52.4%	1.00×	1.90
H1 under 115.5	53.3%	52.6%	53.6%	0.98×	1.90
H1 under 114.5	50.2%	52.6%	50.4%	1.05×	1.90
H1 under 116.5	54.9%	52.5%	56.6%	0.93×	1.90
H1 over 116.5	45.1%	47.5%	43.4%	1.09×	2.11
H1 over 114.5	49.8%	47.4%	49.6%	0.95×	2.11
H1 under 113.5	47.2%	47.4%	47.6%	0.99×	2.11
H1 over 115.5	46.7%	47.4%	46.4%	1.02×	2.11
H1 under 112.5	42.8%	41.9%	44.2%	0.95×	2.39
H1 under 111.5	41.1%	41.8%	41.0%	1.02×	2.39
H1 over 117.5	40.6%	41.8%	40.4%	1.04×	2.39
H1 under 109.5	35.3%	37.3%	35.0%	1.06×	2.68
H1 over 118.5	39.2%	36.7%	37.1%	0.99×	2.72
H1 under 110.5	36.9%	36.7%	38.1%	0.96×	2.72
H1 over 119.5	34.8%	32.6%	34.1%	0.96×	3.07
H1 over 120.5	33.5%	31.9%	31.6%	1.01×	3.13
H1 under 106.5	27.1%	26.5%	26.7%	0.99×	3.77
H1 over 122.5	26.7%	26.5%	26.0%	1.02×	3.77
H1 under 107.5	28.7%	26.1%	29.6%	0.88×	3.84
H1 over 123.5	25.6%	26.0%	24.0%	1.08×	3.84
H1 under 102.5	18.0%	17.5%	17.0%	1.03×	5.73
H1 over 126.5	17.6%	17.5%	17.2%	1.02×	5.73
H1 under 103.5	19.3%	16.8%	19.3%	0.87×	5.96
H1 over 127.5	16.9%	16.8%	15.2%	1.11×	5.96

H2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Los Angeles Lakers to win H2	51.2%	51.2%	44.7%	1.15×	1.95
Golden State Warriors to win H2	45.3%	47.1%	51.6%	0.91×	2.12
H2 tied	3.5%	3.9%	3.7%	1.06×	25.36

H2 total 40

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H2 under 124.5	82.8%	81.8%	79.1%	1.03×	1.22
H2 over 100.5	82.0%	81.8%	82.4%	0.99×	1.22
H2 under 125.5	83.6%	81.5%	81.3%	1.00×	1.23
H2 over 101.5	80.6%	81.5%	80.3%	1.02×	1.23
H2 under 121.5	74.9%	72.5%	72.0%	1.01×	1.38
H2 over 105.5	71.1%	72.5%	71.3%	1.02×	1.38
H2 under 120.5	73.8%	72.2%	69.3%	1.04×	1.39
H2 over 104.5	72.7%	72.2%	73.9%	0.98×	1.39
H2 under 117.5	65.7%	66.4%	61.1%	1.09×	1.51
H2 under 118.5	67.1%	64.4%	63.6%	1.01×	1.55
H2 over 108.5	62.8%	62.6%	63.8%	0.98×	1.60
H2 under 116.5	61.3%	62.6%	58.1%	1.08×	1.60
H2 over 107.5	64.5%	61.6%	66.2%	0.93×	1.62
H2 over 110.5	56.9%	58.0%	58.1%	1.00×	1.72
H2 under 114.5	55.3%	58.0%	52.5%	1.10×	1.72
H2 under 115.5	59.8%	57.3%	55.4%	1.03×	1.74
H2 over 109.5	58.6%	57.3%	60.9%	0.94×	1.74
H2 under 113.5	53.7%	52.4%	50.1%	1.05×	1.91
H2 over 111.5	52.4%	52.4%	55.3%	0.95×	1.91
H2 under 112.5	50.7%	52.4%	47.4%	1.10×	1.91
H2 over 112.5	49.3%	47.6%	52.6%	0.91×	2.10
H2 under 111.5	47.6%	47.6%	44.7%	1.07×	2.10
H2 over 113.5	46.3%	47.6%	49.9%	0.95×	2.10
H2 under 109.5	41.4%	42.7%	39.1%	1.09×	2.34
H2 over 115.5	40.2%	42.7%	44.6%	0.96×	2.35
H2 over 114.5	44.7%	42.0%	47.5%	0.88×	2.38
H2 under 110.5	43.1%	42.0%	41.9%	1.00×	2.38
H2 under 107.5	35.5%	38.4%	33.8%	1.14×	2.61
H2 over 116.5	38.7%	37.4%	41.9%	0.89×	2.67
H2 under 108.5	37.2%	37.4%	36.2%	1.03×	2.67
H2 over 118.5	32.9%	35.6%	36.4%	0.98×	2.81
H2 over 117.5	34.3%	33.6%	38.9%	0.86×	2.97
H2 under 104.5	27.3%	27.8%	26.1%	1.07×	3.59
H2 over 120.5	26.2%	27.8%	30.7%	0.91×	3.59
H2 under 105.5	28.9%	27.5%	28.7%	0.96×	3.63
H2 over 121.5	25.1%	27.5%	28.0%	0.98×	3.64
H2 under 101.5	19.4%	18.5%	19.7%	0.94×	5.41
H2 over 125.5	16.4%	18.5%	18.7%	0.99×	5.41
H2 under 100.5	18.0%	18.2%	17.6%	1.03×	5.50
H2 over 124.5	17.2%	18.2%	20.9%	0.87×	5.50

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Los Angeles Lakers leading at half time	51.2%	51.9%	44.1%	1.17×	1.93
Golden State Warriors leading at half time	45.3%	47.2%	52.8%	0.89×	2.12
Level at half time	3.5%	3.8%	3.1%	1.22×	26.41

Handicap 60

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Los Angeles Lakers +20.5	93.5%	91.1%	89.1%	1.02×	1.10
Los Angeles Lakers +18.5	91.5%	91.1%	86.4%	1.05×	1.10
Golden State Warriors +20.5	90.1%	91.1%	93.1%	0.98×	1.10
Los Angeles Lakers +16.5	89.1%	85.9%	83.5%	1.03×	1.16
Golden State Warriors +18.5	87.4%	85.9%	91.5%	0.94×	1.16
Los Angeles Lakers +14.5	86.3%	85.9%	80.1%	1.07×	1.16
Golden State Warriors +16.5	84.3%	81.1%	89.7%	0.90×	1.23
Los Angeles Lakers +12.5	83.1%	81.1%	76.0%	1.07×	1.23
Golden State Warriors +14.5	80.7%	81.1%	87.0%	0.93×	1.23
Los Angeles Lakers +10.5	79.3%	76.5%	71.0%	1.08×	1.31
Los Angeles Lakers +9.5	77.2%	76.5%	68.7%	1.11×	1.31
Golden State Warriors +12.5	76.7%	76.5%	83.9%	0.91×	1.31
Los Angeles Lakers +8.5	75.1%	76.5%	65.9%	1.16×	1.31
Los Angeles Lakers +7.5	72.8%	71.6%	63.0%	1.14×	1.40
Golden State Warriors +10.5	72.2%	71.6%	80.3%	0.89×	1.40
Los Angeles Lakers +6.5	70.4%	71.6%	60.0%	1.19×	1.40
Golden State Warriors +9.5	69.8%	66.7%	78.1%	0.85×	1.50
Los Angeles Lakers +5.5	68.0%	66.7%	57.1%	1.17×	1.50
Golden State Warriors +8.5	67.3%	66.7%	75.7%	0.88×	1.50
Los Angeles Lakers +4.5	65.4%	66.7%	54.1%	1.23×	1.50
Golden State Warriors +7.5	64.8%	61.9%	73.0%	0.85×	1.62
Los Angeles Lakers +3.5	62.8%	61.9%	51.6%	1.20×	1.62
Golden State Warriors +6.5	62.1%	61.9%	70.6%	0.88×	1.62
Los Angeles Lakers +2.5	60.1%	61.9%	49.1%	1.26×	1.62
Golden State Warriors +5.5	59.4%	57.1%	68.0%	0.84×	1.75
Los Angeles Lakers +1.5	57.4%	57.1%	46.3%	1.23×	1.75
Golden State Warriors +4.5	56.7%	57.1%	65.7%	0.87×	1.75
Golden State Warriors +3.5	53.9%	52.4%	63.1%	0.83×	1.91
Los Angeles Lakers −1.5	51.8%	52.4%	42.1%	1.24×	1.91
Golden State Warriors +2.5	51.0%	52.4%	60.5%	0.87×	1.91
Golden State Warriors +1.5	48.2%	47.6%	57.9%	0.82×	2.10
Los Angeles Lakers −2.5	49.0%	47.6%	39.5%	1.20×	2.10
Los Angeles Lakers −3.5	46.1%	47.6%	36.9%	1.29×	2.10
Golden State Warriors −1.5	42.6%	42.9%	53.7%	0.80×	2.33
Los Angeles Lakers −4.5	43.3%	42.9%	34.3%	1.25×	2.33
Los Angeles Lakers −5.5	40.6%	42.9%	32.0%	1.34×	2.33
Golden State Warriors −2.5	39.9%	38.1%	50.9%	0.75×	2.63
Los Angeles Lakers −6.5	37.9%	38.1%	29.4%	1.30×	2.63
Golden State Warriors −3.5	37.2%	38.1%	48.4%	0.79×	2.63
Los Angeles Lakers −7.5	35.2%	38.1%	27.0%	1.41×	2.63
Golden State Warriors −4.5	34.6%	33.3%	46.0%	0.72×	3.01
Los Angeles Lakers −8.5	32.7%	33.3%	24.3%	1.37×	3.01
Golden State Warriors −5.5	32.0%	33.3%	42.9%	0.78×	3.01
Los Angeles Lakers −9.5	30.2%	33.3%	21.9%	1.52×	3.01
Golden State Warriors −6.5	29.6%	28.4%	40.0%	0.71×	3.53
Los Angeles Lakers −10.5	27.8%	28.4%	19.7%	1.44×	3.53
Golden State Warriors −7.5	27.2%	28.4%	37.0%	0.77×	3.53
Golden State Warriors −8.5	24.9%	23.5%	34.1%	0.69×	4.25
Los Angeles Lakers −12.5	23.3%	23.5%	16.1%	1.46×	4.25
Golden State Warriors −9.5	22.8%	23.5%	31.3%	0.75×	4.25
Golden State Warriors −10.5	20.7%	23.5%	29.0%	0.81×	4.25
Los Angeles Lakers −14.5	19.3%	18.9%	13.0%	1.45×	5.29
Golden State Warriors −12.5	17.0%	18.9%	24.0%	0.79×	5.29
Los Angeles Lakers −16.5	15.7%	18.9%	10.3%	1.83×	5.30
Golden State Warriors −14.5	13.7%	14.1%	19.9%	0.71×	7.09
Los Angeles Lakers −18.5	12.6%	14.1%	8.5%	1.66×	7.09
Golden State Warriors −16.5	10.9%	14.1%	16.5%	0.86×	7.09
Los Angeles Lakers −20.5	9.9%	8.9%	6.9%	1.29×	11.25
Golden State Warriors −18.5	8.5%	8.9%	13.6%	0.65×	11.25
Golden State Warriors −20.5	6.5%	8.9%	10.9%	0.82×	11.25

Highest scoring half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	56.6%	52.6%	53.5%	0.98×	1.90
2nd half highest scoring	43.4%	47.4%	46.5%	1.02×	2.11

Highest scoring quarter 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 highest scoring	28.2%	27.4%	29.2%	0.94×	3.65
Q3 highest scoring	27.9%	27.4%	27.5%	1.00×	3.65
Q2 highest scoring	26.6%	27.4%	26.3%	1.04×	3.65
Q4 highest scoring	17.3%	18.3%	17.0%	1.08×	5.46

HT/FT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Los Angeles Lakers at HT / Los Angeles Lakers at FT	39.4%	37.8%	30.9%	1.22×	2.65
Golden State Warriors at HT / Golden State Warriors at FT	32.0%	33.2%	40.8%	0.81×	3.01
Golden State Warriors at HT / Los Angeles Lakers at FT	13.3%	12.2%	12.0%	1.02×	8.17
Los Angeles Lakers at HT / Golden State Warriors at FT	11.8%	12.2%	13.3%	0.92×	8.18
Level at HT / Golden State Warriors at FT	1.6%	2.1%	1.7%	1.22×	47.76
Level at HT / Los Angeles Lakers at FT	1.9%	2.1%	1.4%	1.50×	47.76

Moneyline 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Los Angeles Lakers to win	54.6%	51.0%	44.3%	1.15×	1.96
Golden State Warriors to win	45.4%	49.0%	55.7%	0.88×	2.04

Odd/Even 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Total points odd	51.4%	50.5%	51.0%	0.99×	1.98
Golden State Warriors even	50.0%	50.5%	49.7%	1.02×	1.98
Los Angeles Lakers even	50.0%	50.5%	50.3%	1.00×	1.98
Golden State Warriors odd	50.0%	49.5%	50.3%	0.98×	2.02
Los Angeles Lakers odd	50.0%	49.5%	49.7%	1.00×	2.02
Total points even	48.6%	49.5%	49.0%	1.01×	2.02

Overtime 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No overtime	92.9%	94.0%	94.8%	0.99×	1.06
Match to go to overtime	7.1%	6.0%	5.2%	1.16×	16.65

Q1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Los Angeles Lakers to win Q1	49.6%	47.6%	44.1%	1.08×	2.10
Golden State Warriors to win Q1	45.6%	47.6%	51.3%	0.93×	2.10
Q1 tied	4.8%	4.2%	4.6%	0.90×	23.94

Q1 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 under 65.5	83.1%	82.8%	83.2%	1.00×	1.21
Q1 over 49.5	82.2%	82.8%	82.7%	1.00×	1.21
Q1 under 62.5	72.8%	72.7%	72.9%	1.00×	1.38
Q1 over 52.5	71.6%	72.7%	72.4%	1.00×	1.38
Q1 under 60.5	64.4%	61.7%	64.5%	0.96×	1.62
Q1 over 54.5	63.2%	61.7%	63.3%	0.98×	1.62
Q1 under 58.5	55.3%	58.6%	55.7%	1.05×	1.71
Q1 over 56.5	54.0%	52.7%	54.6%	0.96×	1.90
Q1 under 57.5	50.7%	52.7%	50.4%	1.04×	1.90
Q1 over 57.5	49.3%	47.3%	49.6%	0.96×	2.11
Q1 under 56.5	46.0%	47.3%	45.4%	1.04×	2.11
Q1 over 58.5	44.7%	41.4%	44.3%	0.93×	2.42
Q1 under 54.5	36.8%	38.3%	36.7%	1.04×	2.61
Q1 over 60.5	35.6%	38.3%	35.5%	1.08×	2.61
Q1 under 52.5	28.4%	27.3%	27.6%	0.99×	3.66
Q1 over 62.5	27.2%	27.3%	27.1%	1.01×	3.66
Q1 under 49.5	17.8%	17.2%	17.3%	0.99×	5.83
Q1 over 65.5	16.9%	17.2%	16.8%	1.02×	5.83

Q2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Los Angeles Lakers to win Q2	49.6%	47.1%	46.2%	1.02×	2.13
Golden State Warriors to win Q2	45.6%	47.0%	49.3%	0.95×	2.13
Q2 tied	4.7%	4.4%	4.5%	0.98×	22.88

Q2 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q2 under 65.5	83.8%	83.0%	83.6%	0.99×	1.21
Q2 over 49.5	81.2%	83.0%	81.8%	1.02×	1.21
Q2 under 62.5	73.8%	72.0%	74.4%	0.97×	1.39
Q2 over 52.5	70.3%	72.0%	70.3%	1.02×	1.39
Q2 under 60.5	65.6%	67.4%	65.7%	1.02×	1.49
Q2 over 54.5	61.8%	60.7%	61.1%	0.99×	1.65
Q2 under 58.5	56.7%	58.2%	57.3%	1.01×	1.72
Q2 over 56.5	52.6%	52.7%	51.7%	1.02×	1.90
Q2 under 57.5	52.0%	52.7%	52.7%	1.00×	1.90
Q2 over 57.5	48.0%	47.3%	47.3%	1.00×	2.11
Q2 under 56.5	47.4%	47.3%	48.3%	0.98×	2.11
Q2 over 58.5	43.3%	41.8%	42.7%	0.98×	2.39
Q2 under 54.5	38.2%	39.3%	38.9%	1.01×	2.55
Q2 over 60.5	34.4%	32.6%	34.3%	0.95×	3.06
Q2 under 52.5	29.7%	28.0%	29.7%	0.94×	3.57
Q2 over 62.5	26.2%	28.0%	25.6%	1.09×	3.57
Q2 under 49.5	18.8%	17.0%	18.2%	0.93×	5.88
Q2 over 65.5	16.2%	17.0%	16.4%	1.04×	5.89

Q3 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Los Angeles Lakers to win Q3	49.7%	47.6%	44.3%	1.07×	2.10
Golden State Warriors to win Q3	45.6%	47.5%	50.9%	0.93×	2.10
Q3 tied	4.7%	4.3%	4.9%	0.88×	23.43

Q3 total 32

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q3 over 49.5	83.0%	82.3%	82.7%	1.00×	1.22
Q3 under 65.5	82.9%	82.3%	82.2%	1.00×	1.22
Q3 under 66.5	84.9%	82.2%	84.7%	0.97×	1.22
Q3 over 50.5	80.4%	82.2%	79.7%	1.03×	1.22
Q3 under 63.5	75.1%	76.9%	75.9%	1.01×	1.30
Q3 over 52.5	72.5%	71.8%	72.2%	0.99×	1.39
Q3 under 62.5	72.3%	71.8%	71.9%	1.00×	1.39
Q3 over 53.5	69.2%	66.9%	68.3%	0.98×	1.50
Q3 under 61.5	67.1%	66.8%	67.7%	0.99×	1.50
Q3 over 55.5	60.5%	62.6%	59.9%	1.05×	1.60
Q3 over 54.5	64.0%	62.0%	63.9%	0.97×	1.61
Q3 under 60.5	63.9%	62.0%	63.5%	0.98×	1.61
Q3 under 59.5	58.2%	57.9%	59.0%	0.98×	1.73
Q3 under 58.5	54.7%	52.3%	54.8%	0.95×	1.91
Q3 over 56.5	54.8%	52.3%	55.0%	0.95×	1.91
Q3 over 57.5	50.1%	52.3%	50.2%	1.04×	1.91
Q3 under 57.5	49.9%	47.7%	49.8%	0.96×	2.10
Q3 over 58.5	45.3%	47.7%	45.2%	1.06×	2.10
Q3 under 56.5	45.2%	47.7%	45.0%	1.06×	2.10
Q3 over 59.5	41.8%	42.1%	41.0%	1.03×	2.37
Q3 under 54.5	36.0%	38.0%	36.1%	1.05×	2.63
Q3 over 60.5	36.1%	38.0%	36.5%	1.04×	2.63
Q3 under 55.5	39.5%	37.4%	40.1%	0.93×	2.67
Q3 over 61.5	32.9%	33.2%	32.3%	1.03×	3.02
Q3 under 53.5	30.8%	33.1%	31.7%	1.05×	3.02
Q3 under 52.5	27.5%	28.2%	27.8%	1.02×	3.55
Q3 over 62.5	27.7%	28.2%	28.1%	1.00×	3.55
Q3 over 63.5	24.9%	23.1%	24.1%	0.96×	4.34
Q3 under 50.5	19.6%	17.8%	20.3%	0.88×	5.62
Q3 over 66.5	15.1%	17.8%	15.3%	1.16×	5.63
Q3 under 49.5	17.0%	17.7%	17.3%	1.02×	5.66
Q3 over 65.5	17.1%	17.7%	17.8%	0.99×	5.66

Q4 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Los Angeles Lakers to win Q4	49.5%	47.6%	46.4%	1.03×	2.10
Golden State Warriors to win Q4	45.6%	47.6%	48.3%	0.98×	2.10
Q4 tied	4.9%	5.2%	5.3%	0.98×	19.28

Q4 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q4 under 63.5	84.3%	82.0%	83.7%	0.98×	1.22
Q4 over 47.5	79.9%	76.9%	79.0%	0.97×	1.30
Q4 under 60.5	74.5%	71.5%	74.2%	0.96×	1.40
Q4 over 50.5	68.9%	67.4%	68.5%	0.98×	1.48
Q4 under 58.5	66.6%	67.4%	66.2%	1.02×	1.48
Q4 over 52.5	60.3%	61.4%	60.4%	1.02×	1.63
Q4 under 56.5	57.9%	58.4%	57.2%	1.02×	1.71
Q4 under 55.5	53.3%	52.5%	52.9%	0.99×	1.91
Q4 over 54.5	51.3%	52.5%	51.4%	1.02×	1.91
Q4 under 54.5	48.7%	47.5%	48.6%	0.98×	2.11
Q4 over 55.5	46.7%	47.5%	47.1%	1.01×	2.11
Q4 over 56.5	42.1%	41.6%	42.8%	0.97×	2.40
Q4 under 52.5	39.7%	38.6%	39.6%	0.97×	2.59
Q4 over 58.5	33.4%	32.6%	33.8%	0.96×	3.07
Q4 under 50.5	31.1%	32.6%	31.5%	1.04×	3.07
Q4 over 60.5	25.5%	28.5%	25.8%	1.11×	3.51
Q4 under 47.5	20.1%	23.1%	21.0%	1.10×	4.33
Q4 over 63.5	15.7%	18.0%	16.3%	1.11×	5.56

Team total 52

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Los Angeles Lakers under 124.5	81.0%	80.7%	81.4%	0.99×	1.24
Golden State Warriors over 102.5	80.1%	80.7%	84.2%	0.96×	1.24
Golden State Warriors under 122.5	80.0%	80.7%	71.8%	1.12×	1.24
Golden State Warriors under 124.5	81.0%	80.3%	76.8%	1.05×	1.25
Golden State Warriors over 104.5	78.0%	78.3%	79.8%	0.98×	1.28
Los Angeles Lakers over 104.5	79.6%	75.1%	75.0%	1.00×	1.33
Golden State Warriors under 121.5	73.6%	71.9%	69.6%	1.03×	1.39
Los Angeles Lakers under 121.5	73.3%	70.7%	74.7%	0.95×	1.41
Golden State Warriors over 105.5	72.3%	70.7%	77.4%	0.91×	1.41
Golden State Warriors under 119.5	72.2%	70.7%	63.5%	1.11×	1.41
Los Angeles Lakers over 107.5	71.6%	70.7%	66.6%	1.06×	1.41
Los Angeles Lakers under 119.5	67.4%	66.4%	70.3%	0.94×	1.51
Golden State Warriors over 107.5	66.4%	66.4%	72.7%	0.91×	1.51
Golden State Warriors under 117.5	66.3%	66.4%	57.8%	1.15×	1.51
Los Angeles Lakers over 109.5	65.6%	66.4%	60.9%	1.09×	1.51
Los Angeles Lakers under 117.5	61.1%	61.2%	64.4%	0.95×	1.63
Golden State Warriors over 109.5	60.0%	61.2%	67.0%	0.91×	1.63
Golden State Warriors under 115.5	60.0%	57.1%	51.6%	1.11×	1.75
Los Angeles Lakers over 111.5	59.1%	57.1%	54.6%	1.05×	1.75
Los Angeles Lakers under 115.5	54.4%	52.3%	58.6%	0.89×	1.91
Golden State Warriors over 111.5	53.4%	52.3%	61.1%	0.86×	1.91
Golden State Warriors under 113.5	53.3%	52.3%	45.7%	1.14×	1.91
Los Angeles Lakers over 113.5	52.4%	52.3%	48.0%	1.09×	1.91
Los Angeles Lakers under 114.5	51.0%	52.3%	55.5%	0.94×	1.91
Golden State Warriors over 112.5	50.0%	52.3%	57.7%	0.91×	1.91
Golden State Warriors under 114.5	52.1%	52.2%	48.6%	1.07×	1.91
Golden State Warriors over 114.5	47.9%	47.8%	51.4%	0.93×	2.09
Golden State Warriors under 112.5	50.0%	47.7%	42.3%	1.13×	2.09
Golden State Warriors under 111.5	46.6%	47.7%	38.9%	1.23×	2.09
Golden State Warriors over 113.5	46.7%	47.7%	54.3%	0.88×	2.09
Los Angeles Lakers under 113.5	47.6%	47.7%	52.0%	0.92×	2.09
Los Angeles Lakers over 114.5	49.0%	47.7%	44.5%	1.07×	2.09
Los Angeles Lakers over 115.5	45.6%	47.7%	41.4%	1.15×	2.09
Los Angeles Lakers under 111.5	40.9%	42.9%	45.4%	0.94×	2.33
Golden State Warriors over 115.5	40.0%	42.9%	48.4%	0.89×	2.33
Golden State Warriors under 109.5	40.0%	38.8%	33.0%	1.18×	2.58
Los Angeles Lakers over 117.5	38.9%	38.8%	35.6%	1.09×	2.58
Los Angeles Lakers under 109.5	34.4%	33.6%	39.1%	0.86×	2.98
Golden State Warriors under 107.5	33.6%	33.6%	27.3%	1.23×	2.98
Golden State Warriors over 117.5	33.7%	33.6%	42.2%	0.80×	2.98
Los Angeles Lakers over 119.5	32.6%	33.6%	29.7%	1.13×	2.98
Golden State Warriors under 105.5	27.7%	29.3%	22.6%	1.30×	3.42
Golden State Warriors over 119.5	27.8%	29.3%	36.5%	0.80×	3.42
Los Angeles Lakers under 107.5	28.4%	29.3%	33.4%	0.88×	3.42
Los Angeles Lakers over 121.5	26.7%	29.3%	25.3%	1.16×	3.42
Golden State Warriors over 121.5	26.4%	28.1%	30.4%	0.93×	3.55
Los Angeles Lakers under 104.5	20.4%	24.9%	25.0%	1.00×	4.02
Golden State Warriors under 104.5	22.0%	21.7%	20.2%	1.07×	4.60
Golden State Warriors over 124.5	19.0%	19.7%	23.2%	0.85×	5.07
Golden State Warriors under 102.5	19.9%	19.3%	15.8%	1.22×	5.18
Golden State Warriors over 122.5	20.0%	19.3%	28.2%	0.69×	5.18
Los Angeles Lakers over 124.5	19.0%	19.3%	18.6%	1.04×	5.18

Total points 56

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 207.5 points	85.8%	85.5%	85.5%	1.00×	1.17
Under 247.5 points	85.5%	85.5%	83.3%	1.03×	1.17
Over 206.5 points	86.4%	85.0%	86.7%	0.98×	1.18
Under 246.5 points	85.9%	85.0%	82.0%	1.04×	1.18
Over 212.5 points	79.0%	78.1%	77.8%	1.00×	1.28
Under 242.5 points	78.5%	78.1%	76.8%	1.02×	1.28
Over 211.5 points	79.6%	75.6%	79.7%	0.95×	1.32
Under 241.5 points	79.0%	75.6%	75.5%	1.00×	1.32
Over 217.5 points	70.5%	71.0%	69.6%	1.02×	1.41
Under 237.5 points	70.0%	71.0%	69.3%	1.03×	1.41
Over 216.5 points	71.1%	70.8%	71.6%	0.99×	1.41
Under 236.5 points	70.2%	70.8%	67.3%	1.05×	1.41
Over 219.5 points	65.2%	65.9%	66.1%	1.00×	1.52
Over 220.5 points	64.8%	61.8%	64.2%	0.96×	1.62
Under 234.5 points	64.2%	61.8%	63.3%	0.97×	1.62
Over 222.5 points	60.8%	61.7%	60.4%	1.02×	1.62
Under 232.5 points	60.2%	61.7%	59.4%	1.04×	1.62
Under 233.5 points	64.4%	61.5%	61.4%	1.00×	1.63
Over 221.5 points	61.1%	61.5%	62.2%	0.99×	1.63
Under 231.5 points	60.3%	61.5%	57.4%	1.07×	1.63
Over 223.5 points	56.9%	56.5%	58.3%	0.97×	1.77
Under 229.5 points	56.1%	56.5%	53.3%	1.06×	1.77
Over 224.5 points	56.7%	56.0%	56.5%	0.99×	1.79
Under 230.5 points	56.0%	56.0%	55.4%	1.01×	1.79
Over 225.5 points	52.6%	52.3%	54.7%	0.96×	1.91
Under 227.5 points	51.7%	52.3%	49.4%	1.06×	1.91
Over 226.5 points	50.5%	52.3%	52.7%	0.99×	1.91
Under 228.5 points	51.8%	52.2%	51.3%	1.02×	1.92
Over 228.5 points	48.2%	47.8%	48.7%	0.98×	2.09
Under 226.5 points	49.5%	47.7%	47.3%	1.01×	2.10
Under 225.5 points	47.4%	47.7%	45.3%	1.05×	2.10
Over 227.5 points	48.3%	47.7%	50.6%	0.94×	2.10
Over 230.5 points	44.0%	44.0%	44.6%	0.99×	2.27
Under 224.5 points	43.3%	44.0%	43.5%	1.01×	2.27
Under 223.5 points	43.1%	43.5%	41.7%	1.04×	2.30
Over 229.5 points	43.9%	43.5%	46.7%	0.93×	2.30
Over 231.5 points	39.7%	38.5%	42.6%	0.90×	2.60
Under 221.5 points	38.9%	38.5%	37.8%	1.02×	2.60
Over 233.5 points	35.6%	38.5%	38.6%	1.00×	2.60
Over 232.5 points	39.8%	38.3%	40.6%	0.94×	2.61
Under 222.5 points	39.2%	38.3%	39.6%	0.97×	2.61
Over 234.5 points	35.8%	38.2%	36.7%	1.04×	2.62
Under 220.5 points	35.2%	38.2%	35.8%	1.07×	2.62
Under 219.5 points	34.8%	34.1%	33.9%	1.01×	2.93
Over 236.5 points	29.8%	29.2%	32.7%	0.89×	3.43
Under 216.5 points	28.9%	29.2%	28.4%	1.03×	3.43
Over 237.5 points	30.0%	29.0%	30.7%	0.94×	3.45
Under 217.5 points	29.5%	29.0%	30.4%	0.95×	3.45
Over 241.5 points	21.0%	24.4%	24.5%	1.00×	4.10
Under 211.5 points	20.4%	24.4%	20.3%	1.20×	4.10
Over 242.5 points	21.5%	21.9%	23.2%	0.94×	4.57
Under 212.5 points	21.0%	21.9%	22.2%	0.99×	4.57
Over 246.5 points	14.1%	15.0%	18.0%	0.83×	6.68
Under 206.5 points	13.6%	15.0%	13.3%	1.13×	6.68
Over 247.5 points	14.5%	14.5%	16.7%	0.87×	6.88
Under 207.5 points	14.2%	14.5%	14.5%	1.00×	6.88

Win both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Los Angeles Lakers to win both halves	24.1%	23.1%	17.8%	1.29×	4.34
Golden State Warriors to win both halves	18.4%	18.9%	25.2%	0.75×	5.30

Winning margin 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Golden State Warriors by 1-5	13.4%	12.3%	12.8%	0.96×	8.11
Los Angeles Lakers by 1-5	14.0%	12.3%	12.3%	1.01×	8.11
Los Angeles Lakers by 6-10	12.8%	12.3%	12.3%	1.00×	8.11
Golden State Warriors by 6-10	11.3%	12.3%	13.9%	0.88×	8.11
Los Angeles Lakers by 11-15	10.4%	12.3%	8.0%	1.54×	8.11
Golden State Warriors by 11-15	8.5%	7.5%	10.8%	0.69×	13.40
Los Angeles Lakers by 16-20	7.5%	7.5%	4.9%	1.53×	13.40
Golden State Warriors by 16-20	5.7%	7.5%	7.3%	1.02×	13.40
Los Angeles Lakers by 26+	5.1%	7.5%	3.9%	1.93×	13.41
Los Angeles Lakers by 21-25	4.8%	2.0%	3.0%	0.67×	49.29
Golden State Warriors by 21-25	3.4%	2.0%	4.7%	0.43×	49.30
Golden State Warriors by 26+	3.2%	2.0%	6.2%	0.33×	49.30

Golden State Warriors v Los Angeles Lakers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

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