Golden State Warriors v Memphis Grizzlies — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 24 October 2026 · NBA · 2027

NBA results-only Prediction generated 3 Sep 2026, 23:45

Golden State Warriors

22:00

Memphis Grizzlies

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Golden State Warriors win

70.9%

Draw

0.0%

Memphis Grizzlies win

29.1%

71029

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
nba-normal	71029	122.11–114.33	122-114 0%	50%	0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Golden State Warriors to score 100+	97.3%	94.9%	89.3%	1.06×	1.05
Memphis Grizzlies to score 100+	89.6%	85.1%	85.9%	0.99×	1.18
Both sides to score 100+	87.5%	85.0%	77.5%	1.10×	1.18
Golden State Warriors to score 110+	85.9%	85.0%	67.0%	1.27×	1.18
Memphis Grizzlies to score 110+	65.7%	63.8%	60.9%	1.05×	1.57
Golden State Warriors to score 120+	59.1%	56.4%	36.5%	1.54×	1.77
Memphis Grizzlies to score 120+	32.6%	31.4%	29.7%	1.06×	3.19
Golden State Warriors to score 130+	26.9%	27.5%	12.8%	2.14×	3.64
Memphis Grizzlies to score 130+	9.6%	8.8%	10.0%	0.88×	11.34

H1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Golden State Warriors to win H1	62.3%	62.2%	52.8%	1.18×	1.61
Memphis Grizzlies to win H1	34.4%	33.1%	44.1%	0.75×	3.02
H1 tied	3.3%	3.9%	3.1%	1.25×	25.87

H1 total 40

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H1 under 130.5	83.2%	83.2%	89.6%	0.93×	1.20
H1 over 106.5	80.6%	83.2%	73.3%	1.14×	1.20
H1 under 131.5	82.5%	82.5%	91.0%	0.91×	1.21
H1 over 107.5	81.9%	82.5%	70.4%	1.17×	1.21
H1 under 126.5	74.5%	74.0%	82.8%	0.89×	1.35
H1 over 110.5	71.2%	73.9%	61.9%	1.19×	1.35
H1 under 127.5	73.5%	73.5%	84.8%	0.87×	1.36
H1 over 111.5	72.7%	73.5%	59.0%	1.25×	1.36
H1 under 123.5	66.7%	68.1%	76.0%	0.90×	1.47
H1 under 124.5	65.4%	67.4%	78.4%	0.86×	1.48
H1 over 113.5	62.9%	63.3%	52.4%	1.21×	1.58
H1 under 121.5	61.0%	63.3%	71.2%	0.89×	1.58
H1 over 114.5	64.5%	62.7%	49.6%	1.26×	1.59
H1 under 122.5	59.6%	58.2%	74.0%	0.79×	1.72
H1 over 116.5	58.6%	58.2%	43.4%	1.34×	1.72
H1 over 115.5	57.0%	58.1%	46.4%	1.25×	1.72
H1 under 120.5	53.6%	52.6%	68.4%	0.77×	1.90
H1 over 118.5	52.6%	52.6%	37.1%	1.42×	1.90
H1 under 119.5	50.5%	52.6%	65.9%	0.80×	1.90
H1 over 117.5	51.0%	52.5%	40.4%	1.30×	1.90
H1 under 117.5	49.0%	47.5%	59.6%	0.80×	2.11
H1 over 119.5	49.5%	47.4%	34.1%	1.39×	2.11
H1 over 120.5	46.4%	47.4%	31.6%	1.50×	2.11
H1 under 118.5	47.4%	47.4%	62.9%	0.75×	2.11
H1 under 115.5	43.0%	41.9%	53.6%	0.78×	2.39
H1 under 116.5	41.4%	41.8%	56.6%	0.74×	2.39
H1 over 122.5	40.4%	41.8%	26.0%	1.60×	2.39
H1 under 114.5	35.5%	37.3%	50.4%	0.74×	2.68
H1 over 121.5	39.0%	36.7%	28.8%	1.28×	2.72
H1 under 113.5	37.1%	36.7%	47.6%	0.77×	2.72
H1 over 124.5	34.6%	32.6%	21.7%	1.51×	3.07
H1 over 123.5	33.3%	31.9%	24.0%	1.33×	3.13
H1 under 111.5	27.3%	26.5%	41.0%	0.65×	3.77
H1 over 127.5	26.5%	26.5%	15.2%	1.75×	3.77
H1 under 110.5	28.8%	26.1%	38.1%	0.68×	3.84
H1 over 126.5	25.5%	26.0%	17.2%	1.51×	3.84
H1 under 107.5	18.1%	17.5%	29.6%	0.59×	5.73
H1 over 131.5	17.5%	17.5%	9.0%	1.93×	5.73
H1 under 106.5	19.4%	16.8%	26.7%	0.63×	5.96
H1 over 130.5	16.8%	16.8%	10.4%	1.62×	5.96

H2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Golden State Warriors to win H2	62.1%	58.8%	51.6%	1.14×	1.70
Memphis Grizzlies to win H2	34.6%	36.3%	44.7%	0.81×	2.75
H2 tied	3.3%	3.9%	3.7%	1.06×	25.36

H2 total 34

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H2 under 129.5	83.2%	81.8%	87.6%	0.93×	1.22
H2 over 105.5	81.6%	81.8%	71.3%	1.15×	1.22
H2 over 103.5	82.5%	81.5%	76.2%	1.07×	1.23
H2 under 127.5	81.9%	81.5%	84.9%	0.96×	1.23
H2 over 107.5	73.4%	72.5%	66.2%	1.09×	1.38
H2 under 123.5	72.7%	72.5%	76.9%	0.94×	1.38
H2 under 125.5	74.3%	72.2%	81.3%	0.89×	1.39
H2 over 109.5	72.3%	72.2%	60.9%	1.19×	1.39
H2 under 122.5	66.2%	66.4%	74.4%	0.89×	1.51
H2 over 110.5	65.4%	64.4%	58.1%	1.11×	1.55
H2 over 112.5	64.0%	61.6%	52.6%	1.17×	1.62
H2 under 120.5	60.4%	61.6%	69.3%	0.89×	1.62
H2 over 114.5	58.0%	57.3%	47.5%	1.21×	1.74
H2 under 118.5	54.3%	52.4%	63.6%	0.82×	1.91
H2 over 116.5	51.9%	52.4%	41.9%	1.25×	1.91
H2 under 117.5	51.2%	52.4%	61.1%	0.86×	1.91
H2 over 115.5	50.4%	52.0%	44.6%	1.17×	1.92
H2 under 115.5	49.6%	48.0%	55.4%	0.87×	2.09
H2 over 117.5	48.8%	47.6%	38.9%	1.22×	2.10
H2 under 116.5	48.1%	47.6%	58.1%	0.82×	2.10
H2 over 118.5	45.7%	47.6%	36.4%	1.31×	2.10
H2 under 114.5	42.0%	42.7%	52.5%	0.81×	2.34
H2 over 120.5	39.6%	38.4%	30.7%	1.25×	2.61
H2 under 112.5	36.0%	38.4%	47.4%	0.81×	2.61
H2 under 110.5	34.6%	35.6%	41.9%	0.85×	2.81
H2 over 122.5	33.8%	33.6%	25.6%	1.31×	2.97
H2 under 109.5	27.7%	27.8%	39.1%	0.71×	3.59
H2 over 125.5	25.7%	27.8%	18.7%	1.49×	3.59
H2 over 123.5	27.3%	27.5%	23.1%	1.19×	3.63
H2 under 107.5	26.6%	27.5%	33.8%	0.81×	3.63
H2 over 127.5	18.1%	18.5%	15.1%	1.22×	5.41
H2 under 103.5	17.5%	18.5%	23.8%	0.78×	5.41
H2 under 105.5	18.4%	18.2%	28.7%	0.63×	5.50
H2 over 129.5	16.8%	18.2%	12.4%	1.46×	5.50

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Golden State Warriors leading at half time	62.3%	62.5%	52.8%	1.18×	1.60
Memphis Grizzlies leading at half time	34.4%	32.8%	44.1%	0.74×	3.05
Level at half time	3.3%	3.8%	3.1%	1.22×	26.41

Handicap 60

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Golden State Warriors +18.5	96.4%	97.4%	91.5%	1.06×	1.03
Golden State Warriors +20.5	97.4%	97.4%	93.1%	1.05×	1.03
Golden State Warriors +16.5	95.2%	97.4%	89.7%	1.09×	1.03
Golden State Warriors +14.5	93.6%	91.1%	87.0%	1.05×	1.10
Golden State Warriors +12.5	91.7%	91.1%	83.9%	1.09×	1.10
Golden State Warriors +10.5	89.4%	85.9%	80.3%	1.07×	1.16
Golden State Warriors +9.5	88.1%	85.9%	78.1%	1.10×	1.16
Golden State Warriors +7.5	85.1%	85.9%	73.0%	1.18×	1.16
Golden State Warriors +8.5	86.6%	85.9%	75.7%	1.13×	1.16
Golden State Warriors +6.5	83.4%	81.1%	70.6%	1.15×	1.23
Memphis Grizzlies +20.5	80.5%	81.1%	89.1%	0.91×	1.23
Golden State Warriors +5.5	81.6%	81.1%	68.0%	1.19×	1.23
Golden State Warriors +4.5	79.7%	76.5%	65.7%	1.16×	1.31
Golden State Warriors +3.5	77.6%	76.5%	63.1%	1.21×	1.31
Memphis Grizzlies +18.5	76.4%	76.5%	86.4%	0.89×	1.31
Golden State Warriors +2.5	75.5%	76.5%	60.5%	1.26×	1.31
Golden State Warriors +1.5	73.3%	71.6%	57.9%	1.24×	1.40
Memphis Grizzlies +16.5	71.9%	71.6%	83.5%	0.86×	1.40
Golden State Warriors −1.5	68.4%	66.7%	53.7%	1.24×	1.50
Memphis Grizzlies +14.5	67.1%	66.7%	80.1%	0.83×	1.50
Golden State Warriors −2.5	65.8%	66.7%	50.9%	1.31×	1.50
Golden State Warriors −3.5	63.1%	61.9%	48.4%	1.28×	1.62
Memphis Grizzlies +12.5	61.8%	61.9%	76.0%	0.82×	1.62
Golden State Warriors −4.5	60.4%	61.9%	46.0%	1.35×	1.62
Golden State Warriors −5.5	57.6%	57.1%	42.9%	1.33×	1.75
Memphis Grizzlies +10.5	56.4%	57.1%	71.0%	0.80×	1.75
Golden State Warriors −6.5	54.8%	52.4%	40.0%	1.31×	1.91
Memphis Grizzlies +9.5	53.6%	52.4%	68.7%	0.76×	1.91
Golden State Warriors −7.5	52.0%	52.4%	37.0%	1.41×	1.91
Memphis Grizzlies +8.5	50.8%	52.4%	65.9%	0.80×	1.91
Golden State Warriors −8.5	49.2%	47.6%	34.1%	1.40×	2.10
Memphis Grizzlies +7.5	48.0%	47.6%	63.0%	0.76×	2.10
Golden State Warriors −9.5	46.4%	47.6%	31.3%	1.52×	2.10
Memphis Grizzlies +6.5	45.2%	47.6%	60.0%	0.79×	2.10
Golden State Warriors −10.5	43.6%	42.9%	29.0%	1.48×	2.33
Memphis Grizzlies +5.5	42.4%	42.9%	57.1%	0.75×	2.33
Memphis Grizzlies +4.5	39.6%	38.1%	54.1%	0.70×	2.63
Golden State Warriors −12.5	38.2%	38.1%	24.0%	1.58×	2.63
Memphis Grizzlies +3.5	36.9%	38.1%	51.6%	0.74×	2.63
Memphis Grizzlies +2.5	34.2%	33.3%	49.1%	0.68×	3.01
Golden State Warriors −14.5	32.9%	33.3%	19.9%	1.68×	3.01
Memphis Grizzlies +1.5	31.6%	33.3%	46.3%	0.72×	3.01
Golden State Warriors −16.5	28.1%	28.4%	16.5%	1.72×	3.53
Memphis Grizzlies −1.5	26.7%	28.4%	42.1%	0.67×	3.53
Memphis Grizzlies −2.5	24.5%	23.5%	39.5%	0.60×	4.25
Golden State Warriors −18.5	23.6%	23.5%	13.6%	1.73×	4.25
Memphis Grizzlies −3.5	22.4%	23.5%	36.9%	0.64×	4.25
Memphis Grizzlies −4.5	20.3%	23.5%	34.3%	0.69×	4.25
Golden State Warriors −20.5	19.5%	18.9%	10.9%	1.74×	5.29
Memphis Grizzlies −5.5	18.4%	18.9%	32.0%	0.59×	5.29
Memphis Grizzlies −6.5	16.6%	18.9%	29.4%	0.64×	5.30
Memphis Grizzlies −7.5	14.9%	14.1%	27.0%	0.52×	7.09
Memphis Grizzlies −8.5	13.4%	14.1%	24.3%	0.58×	7.09
Memphis Grizzlies −9.5	11.9%	14.1%	21.9%	0.65×	7.09
Memphis Grizzlies −10.5	10.6%	14.1%	19.7%	0.71×	7.09
Memphis Grizzlies −12.5	8.3%	8.9%	16.1%	0.55×	11.25
Memphis Grizzlies −14.5	6.4%	8.9%	13.0%	0.68×	11.25
Memphis Grizzlies −16.5	4.8%	2.6%	10.3%	0.25×	38.72
Memphis Grizzlies −18.5	3.6%	2.6%	8.5%	0.30×	38.73
Memphis Grizzlies −20.5	2.6%	2.6%	6.9%	0.37×	38.73

Highest scoring half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	56.9%	52.6%	53.5%	0.98×	1.90
2nd half highest scoring	43.1%	47.4%	46.5%	1.02×	2.11

Highest scoring quarter 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 highest scoring	28.4%	27.4%	29.2%	0.94×	3.65
Q3 highest scoring	28.1%	27.4%	27.5%	1.00×	3.65
Q2 highest scoring	26.6%	27.4%	26.3%	1.04×	3.65
Q4 highest scoring	17.0%	18.3%	17.0%	1.08×	5.46

HT/FT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Golden State Warriors at HT / Golden State Warriors at FT	53.9%	51.1%	40.8%	1.25×	1.96
Memphis Grizzlies at HT / Memphis Grizzlies at FT	19.6%	15.5%	30.9%	0.50×	6.47
Memphis Grizzlies at HT / Golden State Warriors at FT	14.8%	12.2%	13.3%	0.92×	8.17
Golden State Warriors at HT / Memphis Grizzlies at FT	8.4%	8.3%	12.0%	0.69×	12.08
Level at HT / Golden State Warriors at FT	2.2%	2.1%	1.7%	1.22×	47.75
Level at HT / Memphis Grizzlies at FT	1.1%	2.1%	1.4%	1.49×	47.77

Moneyline 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Golden State Warriors to win	70.9%	68.7%	55.7%	1.23×	1.46
Memphis Grizzlies to win	29.1%	31.3%	44.3%	0.71×	3.20

Odd/Even 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Golden State Warriors even	50.0%	50.5%	49.7%	1.02×	1.98
Memphis Grizzlies even	50.0%	50.5%	50.3%	1.00×	1.98
Total points odd	51.2%	50.5%	51.0%	0.99×	1.98
Golden State Warriors odd	50.0%	49.5%	50.3%	0.98×	2.02
Memphis Grizzlies odd	50.0%	49.5%	49.7%	1.00×	2.02
Total points even	48.8%	49.5%	49.0%	1.01×	2.02

Overtime 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No overtime	93.9%	94.0%	94.8%	0.99×	1.06
Match to go to overtime	6.1%	6.0%	5.2%	1.16×	16.66

Q1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Golden State Warriors to win Q1	57.3%	57.3%	51.3%	1.12×	1.75
Memphis Grizzlies to win Q1	38.1%	38.2%	44.1%	0.87×	2.62
Q1 tied	4.7%	4.2%	4.6%	0.90×	23.94

Q1 total 32

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 under 67.5	83.8%	83.2%	88.8%	0.94×	1.20
Q1 over 51.5	81.2%	83.2%	76.0%	1.09×	1.20
Q1 under 68.5	84.7%	82.8%	90.7%	0.91×	1.21
Q1 over 52.5	80.6%	82.8%	72.4%	1.14×	1.21
Q1 under 64.5	73.7%	73.1%	80.1%	0.91×	1.37
Q1 over 54.5	70.3%	73.1%	63.3%	1.15×	1.37
Q1 under 65.5	74.8%	72.7%	83.2%	0.87×	1.38
Q1 under 62.5	65.6%	69.2%	72.9%	0.95×	1.45
Q1 over 55.5	69.4%	67.6%	59.2%	1.14×	1.48
Q1 under 63.5	66.8%	67.6%	76.8%	0.88×	1.48
Q1 over 56.5	61.8%	62.3%	54.6%	1.14×	1.61
Q1 over 57.5	60.8%	61.7%	49.6%	1.25×	1.62
Q1 under 61.5	57.8%	58.6%	68.5%	0.86×	1.71
Q1 over 58.5	52.7%	52.7%	44.3%	1.19×	1.90
Q1 under 60.5	53.2%	52.7%	64.5%	0.82×	1.90
Q1 over 59.5	51.5%	52.7%	40.0%	1.32×	1.90
Q1 under 59.5	48.5%	47.3%	60.0%	0.79×	2.11
Q1 over 60.5	46.8%	47.3%	35.5%	1.33×	2.11
Q1 under 58.5	47.3%	47.3%	55.7%	0.85×	2.11
Q1 over 61.5	42.2%	41.4%	31.5%	1.31×	2.42
Q1 under 57.5	39.2%	38.3%	50.4%	0.76×	2.61
Q1 under 56.5	38.2%	37.7%	45.4%	0.83×	2.65
Q1 over 63.5	33.2%	32.4%	23.2%	1.40×	3.08
Q1 under 55.5	30.6%	32.4%	40.8%	0.79×	3.08
Q1 over 62.5	34.4%	30.8%	27.1%	1.14×	3.25
Q1 over 65.5	25.2%	27.3%	16.8%	1.62×	3.67
Q1 under 54.5	29.7%	26.9%	36.7%	0.73×	3.72
Q1 over 64.5	26.3%	26.9%	19.9%	1.35×	3.72
Q1 under 52.5	19.4%	17.2%	27.6%	0.62×	5.83
Q1 over 68.5	15.3%	17.2%	9.3%	1.83×	5.83
Q1 under 51.5	18.8%	16.8%	24.0%	0.70×	5.95
Q1 over 67.5	16.2%	16.8%	11.2%	1.49×	5.96

Q2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Golden State Warriors to win Q2	57.2%	59.4%	49.3%	1.20×	1.68
Memphis Grizzlies to win Q2	38.2%	35.8%	46.2%	0.77×	2.80
Q2 tied	4.6%	4.4%	4.5%	0.98×	22.89

Q2 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q2 over 51.5	82.6%	83.0%	74.2%	1.12×	1.21
Q2 under 67.5	82.5%	83.0%	88.7%	0.94×	1.21
Q2 over 54.5	72.1%	72.0%	61.1%	1.18×	1.39
Q2 under 64.5	72.0%	72.0%	80.9%	0.89×	1.39
Q2 over 56.5	63.8%	60.7%	51.7%	1.17×	1.65
Q2 under 62.5	63.7%	60.7%	74.4%	0.82×	1.65
Q2 over 58.5	54.7%	52.7%	42.7%	1.23×	1.90
Q2 under 60.5	54.6%	52.7%	65.7%	0.80×	1.90
Q2 over 59.5	50.1%	52.7%	38.1%	1.38×	1.90
Q2 under 59.5	49.9%	47.3%	61.9%	0.76×	2.11
Q2 under 58.5	45.3%	47.3%	57.3%	0.83×	2.11
Q2 over 60.5	45.4%	47.3%	34.3%	1.38×	2.11
Q2 under 56.5	36.2%	39.3%	48.3%	0.81×	2.55
Q2 over 62.5	36.3%	39.3%	25.6%	1.53×	2.55
Q2 under 54.5	27.9%	28.0%	38.9%	0.72×	3.57
Q2 over 64.5	28.0%	28.0%	19.1%	1.46×	3.57
Q2 under 51.5	17.4%	17.0%	25.8%	0.66×	5.88
Q2 over 67.5	17.5%	17.0%	11.3%	1.50×	5.88

Q3 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Golden State Warriors to win Q3	57.2%	56.8%	50.9%	1.12×	1.76
Memphis Grizzlies to win Q3	38.2%	38.8%	44.3%	0.88×	2.58
Q3 tied	4.6%	4.3%	4.9%	0.88×	23.43

Q3 total 32

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q3 under 68.5	84.4%	82.3%	89.3%	0.92×	1.22
Q3 over 52.5	81.3%	82.3%	72.2%	1.14×	1.22
Q3 under 67.5	83.6%	82.2%	87.0%	0.94×	1.22
Q3 over 51.5	82.0%	82.2%	76.1%	1.08×	1.22
Q3 under 64.5	73.3%	72.5%	79.2%	0.92×	1.38
Q3 over 54.5	71.2%	72.5%	63.9%	1.14×	1.38
Q3 under 65.5	74.4%	71.8%	82.2%	0.87×	1.39
Q3 over 55.5	70.3%	71.8%	59.9%	1.20×	1.39
Q3 under 63.5	66.2%	67.8%	75.9%	0.89×	1.48
Q3 under 62.5	65.0%	66.8%	71.9%	0.93×	1.50
Q3 over 56.5	62.7%	62.6%	55.0%	1.14×	1.60
Q3 over 57.5	61.6%	61.9%	50.2%	1.23×	1.61
Q3 under 61.5	57.1%	58.4%	67.7%	0.86×	1.71
Q3 over 58.5	53.4%	52.6%	45.2%	1.16×	1.90
Q3 over 59.5	52.3%	52.3%	41.0%	1.28×	1.91
Q3 under 60.5	52.4%	52.3%	63.5%	0.82×	1.91
Q3 under 59.5	47.7%	47.7%	59.0%	0.81×	2.10
Q3 over 60.5	47.6%	47.7%	36.5%	1.31×	2.10
Q3 under 58.5	46.6%	47.4%	54.8%	0.86×	2.11
Q3 over 61.5	42.9%	41.6%	32.3%	1.29×	2.40
Q3 under 57.5	38.4%	38.1%	49.8%	0.76×	2.63
Q3 under 56.5	37.3%	37.4%	45.0%	0.83×	2.67
Q3 over 62.5	35.0%	33.2%	28.1%	1.18×	3.01
Q3 over 63.5	33.8%	32.2%	24.1%	1.34×	3.10
Q3 under 55.5	29.7%	28.2%	40.1%	0.70×	3.55
Q3 over 65.5	25.6%	28.2%	17.8%	1.58×	3.55
Q3 under 54.5	28.8%	27.5%	36.1%	0.76×	3.63
Q3 over 64.5	26.7%	27.5%	20.8%	1.32×	3.64
Q3 under 51.5	18.0%	17.8%	23.9%	0.74×	5.62
Q3 over 67.5	16.4%	17.8%	13.0%	1.37×	5.63
Q3 under 52.5	18.7%	17.7%	27.8%	0.64×	5.66
Q3 over 68.5	15.6%	17.7%	10.7%	1.65×	5.66

Q4 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Golden State Warriors to win Q4	57.0%	52.0%	48.3%	1.08×	1.92
Memphis Grizzlies to win Q4	38.3%	42.4%	46.4%	0.91×	2.36
Q4 tied	4.8%	5.2%	5.3%	0.98×	19.28

Q4 total 32

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q4 under 65.5	83.3%	82.0%	88.4%	0.93×	1.22
Q4 over 49.5	81.0%	82.0%	72.3%	1.13×	1.22
Q4 under 64.5	82.3%	81.9%	86.3%	0.95×	1.22
Q4 over 48.5	81.8%	81.9%	75.5%	1.09×	1.22
Q4 under 61.5	72.0%	72.3%	77.5%	0.93×	1.38
Q4 over 51.5	71.3%	72.3%	64.7%	1.12×	1.38
Q4 under 62.5	73.2%	71.5%	80.4%	0.89×	1.40
Q4 over 52.5	70.3%	71.5%	60.4%	1.18×	1.40
Q4 under 60.5	65.1%	67.4%	74.2%	0.91×	1.48
Q4 under 59.5	63.9%	61.7%	70.2%	0.88×	1.62
Q4 over 53.5	63.1%	61.6%	55.7%	1.11×	1.62
Q4 over 54.5	61.9%	61.4%	51.4%	1.20×	1.63
Q4 under 58.5	56.3%	58.4%	66.2%	0.88×	1.71
Q4 over 56.5	52.9%	52.5%	42.8%	1.23×	1.91
Q4 under 57.5	51.7%	52.5%	61.9%	0.85×	1.91
Q4 over 55.5	54.1%	52.4%	47.1%	1.11×	1.91
Q4 under 55.5	45.9%	47.6%	52.9%	0.90×	2.10
Q4 over 57.5	48.3%	47.5%	38.1%	1.25×	2.11
Q4 under 56.5	47.1%	47.5%	57.2%	0.83×	2.11
Q4 over 58.5	43.7%	41.6%	33.8%	1.23×	2.40
Q4 under 54.5	38.1%	38.6%	48.6%	0.79×	2.59
Q4 under 53.5	36.9%	38.4%	44.3%	0.86×	2.61
Q4 over 59.5	36.1%	38.3%	29.8%	1.29×	2.61
Q4 over 60.5	34.9%	32.6%	25.8%	1.26×	3.07
Q4 under 52.5	29.7%	28.5%	39.6%	0.72×	3.51
Q4 over 62.5	26.8%	28.5%	19.6%	1.45×	3.51
Q4 under 51.5	28.7%	27.7%	35.3%	0.78×	3.61
Q4 over 61.5	28.0%	27.7%	22.5%	1.23×	3.61
Q4 under 48.5	18.2%	18.1%	24.5%	0.74×	5.53
Q4 over 64.5	17.7%	18.1%	13.7%	1.32×	5.53
Q4 under 49.5	19.0%	18.0%	27.7%	0.65×	5.56
Q4 over 65.5	16.7%	18.0%	11.6%	1.55×	5.56

Team total 58

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Memphis Grizzlies under 124.5	81.0%	80.7%	81.4%	0.99×	1.24
Golden State Warriors under 132.5	80.8%	80.7%	91.2%	0.89×	1.24
Golden State Warriors over 109.5	79.4%	78.3%	67.0%	1.17×	1.28
Golden State Warriors over 112.5	79.5%	75.1%	57.7%	1.30×	1.33
Memphis Grizzlies over 104.5	79.7%	75.1%	75.0%	1.00×	1.33
Golden State Warriors under 126.5	72.1%	71.8%	81.5%	0.88×	1.39
Golden State Warriors under 129.5	73.1%	70.7%	87.2%	0.81×	1.41
Memphis Grizzlies under 121.5	73.3%	70.7%	74.7%	0.95×	1.41
Memphis Grizzlies over 107.5	71.7%	70.7%	66.6%	1.06×	1.41
Golden State Warriors over 115.5	71.5%	70.7%	48.4%	1.46×	1.41
Golden State Warriors under 124.5	66.3%	66.6%	76.8%	0.87×	1.50
Golden State Warriors over 114.5	65.8%	66.6%	51.4%	1.30×	1.50
Memphis Grizzlies under 119.5	67.4%	66.4%	70.3%	0.94×	1.51
Golden State Warriors under 127.5	67.2%	66.4%	83.5%	0.80×	1.51
Memphis Grizzlies over 109.5	65.7%	66.4%	60.9%	1.09×	1.51
Golden State Warriors over 117.5	65.6%	66.4%	42.2%	1.57×	1.51
Memphis Grizzlies under 117.5	61.1%	61.2%	64.4%	0.95×	1.63
Golden State Warriors under 125.5	60.9%	61.2%	79.1%	0.77×	1.63
Golden State Warriors over 116.5	59.5%	57.9%	45.3%	1.28×	1.73
Golden State Warriors over 119.5	59.1%	57.1%	36.5%	1.56×	1.75
Memphis Grizzlies over 111.5	59.2%	57.1%	54.6%	1.05×	1.75
Memphis Grizzlies under 115.5	54.4%	52.3%	58.6%	0.89×	1.91
Golden State Warriors under 123.5	54.3%	52.3%	74.4%	0.70×	1.91
Memphis Grizzlies over 113.5	52.4%	52.3%	48.0%	1.09×	1.91
Memphis Grizzlies under 114.5	51.0%	52.3%	55.5%	0.94×	1.91
Golden State Warriors over 121.5	52.5%	52.3%	30.4%	1.72×	1.91
Golden State Warriors under 122.5	50.9%	52.3%	71.8%	0.73×	1.91
Golden State Warriors under 120.5	53.6%	52.2%	66.3%	0.79×	1.91
Golden State Warriors over 118.5	53.0%	52.2%	39.7%	1.32×	1.91
Golden State Warriors under 118.5	47.0%	47.8%	60.3%	0.79×	2.09
Golden State Warriors over 120.5	46.4%	47.8%	33.7%	1.42×	2.09
Golden State Warriors over 122.5	49.1%	47.7%	28.2%	1.69×	2.09
Memphis Grizzlies under 113.5	47.6%	47.7%	52.0%	0.92×	2.09
Memphis Grizzlies over 114.5	49.0%	47.7%	44.5%	1.07×	2.09
Golden State Warriors under 121.5	47.5%	47.7%	69.6%	0.69×	2.09
Memphis Grizzlies over 115.5	45.6%	47.7%	41.4%	1.15×	2.09
Golden State Warriors over 123.5	45.7%	47.7%	25.6%	1.87×	2.09
Golden State Warriors under 119.5	40.9%	42.9%	63.5%	0.68×	2.33
Memphis Grizzlies under 111.5	40.8%	42.9%	45.4%	0.94×	2.33
Golden State Warriors under 116.5	40.5%	42.1%	54.7%	0.77×	2.38
Memphis Grizzlies over 117.5	38.9%	38.8%	35.6%	1.09×	2.58
Golden State Warriors over 125.5	39.1%	38.8%	20.9%	1.85×	2.58
Memphis Grizzlies under 109.5	34.3%	33.6%	39.1%	0.86×	2.98
Golden State Warriors under 117.5	34.4%	33.6%	57.8%	0.58×	2.98
Memphis Grizzlies over 119.5	32.6%	33.6%	29.7%	1.13×	2.98
Golden State Warriors over 127.5	32.8%	33.6%	16.5%	2.04×	2.98
Golden State Warriors under 114.5	34.2%	33.4%	48.6%	0.69×	2.99
Golden State Warriors over 124.5	33.7%	33.4%	23.2%	1.44×	2.99
Memphis Grizzlies under 107.5	28.3%	29.3%	33.4%	0.88×	3.42
Golden State Warriors under 115.5	28.5%	29.3%	51.6%	0.57×	3.42
Golden State Warriors over 129.5	26.9%	29.3%	12.8%	2.28×	3.42
Memphis Grizzlies over 121.5	26.7%	29.3%	25.3%	1.16×	3.42
Golden State Warriors over 126.5	27.9%	28.2%	18.5%	1.53×	3.55
Golden State Warriors under 112.5	20.5%	24.9%	42.3%	0.59×	4.02
Memphis Grizzlies under 104.5	20.3%	24.9%	25.0%	1.00×	4.02
Golden State Warriors under 109.5	20.7%	21.7%	33.0%	0.66×	4.60
Memphis Grizzlies over 124.5	19.0%	19.3%	18.6%	1.04×	5.18
Golden State Warriors over 132.5	19.2%	19.3%	8.8%	2.19×	5.18

Total points 52

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 213.5 points	85.6%	85.5%	76.4%	1.12×	1.17
Under 253.5 points	85.7%	85.5%	89.1%	0.96×	1.17
Under 256.5 points	86.2%	85.0%	91.6%	0.93×	1.18
Over 216.5 points	86.1%	85.0%	71.6%	1.19×	1.18
Over 218.5 points	78.8%	78.1%	67.8%	1.15×	1.28
Under 248.5 points	78.8%	78.1%	84.4%	0.92×	1.28
Under 251.5 points	79.4%	75.6%	87.2%	0.87×	1.32
Over 221.5 points	79.2%	75.6%	62.2%	1.22×	1.32
Over 223.5 points	70.2%	71.0%	58.3%	1.22×	1.41
Over 226.5 points	70.6%	70.8%	52.7%	1.34×	1.41
Under 246.5 points	70.7%	70.8%	82.0%	0.86×	1.41
Under 240.5 points	64.6%	61.8%	74.0%	0.83×	1.62
Over 228.5 points	60.5%	61.7%	48.7%	1.27×	1.62
Under 238.5 points	60.5%	61.7%	70.9%	0.87×	1.62
Under 243.5 points	65.0%	61.5%	78.2%	0.79×	1.63
Over 229.5 points	64.7%	61.5%	46.7%	1.32×	1.63
Over 231.5 points	60.6%	61.5%	42.6%	1.44×	1.63
Under 241.5 points	60.9%	61.5%	75.5%	0.81×	1.63
Over 233.5 points	56.3%	56.5%	38.6%	1.46×	1.77
Under 239.5 points	56.6%	56.5%	72.5%	0.78×	1.77
Over 230.5 points	56.3%	56.0%	44.6%	1.26×	1.79
Over 235.5 points	52.0%	52.3%	34.7%	1.51×	1.91
Under 237.5 points	52.3%	52.3%	69.3%	0.76×	1.91
Under 236.5 points	50.1%	52.3%	67.3%	0.78×	1.91
Over 232.5 points	52.1%	52.2%	40.6%	1.29×	1.92
Under 234.5 points	52.2%	52.2%	63.3%	0.82×	1.92
Under 232.5 points	47.9%	47.8%	59.4%	0.80×	2.09
Over 234.5 points	47.8%	47.8%	36.7%	1.30×	2.09
Over 236.5 points	49.9%	47.7%	32.7%	1.46×	2.10
Under 235.5 points	48.0%	47.7%	65.3%	0.73×	2.10
Over 237.5 points	47.7%	47.7%	30.7%	1.55×	2.10
Under 230.5 points	43.7%	44.0%	55.4%	0.79×	2.27
Under 233.5 points	43.7%	43.5%	61.4%	0.71×	2.30
Over 239.5 points	43.4%	43.5%	27.5%	1.58×	2.30
Under 231.5 points	39.4%	38.5%	57.4%	0.67×	2.60
Over 241.5 points	39.1%	38.5%	24.5%	1.57×	2.60
Over 243.5 points	35.0%	38.5%	21.8%	1.77×	2.60
Under 229.5 points	35.3%	38.5%	53.3%	0.72×	2.60
Under 228.5 points	39.5%	38.3%	51.3%	0.75×	2.61
Over 238.5 points	39.5%	38.3%	29.1%	1.31×	2.61
Over 240.5 points	35.4%	38.2%	26.0%	1.47×	2.62
Under 226.5 points	29.4%	29.2%	47.3%	0.62×	3.43
Over 246.5 points	29.3%	29.2%	18.0%	1.62×	3.43
Under 223.5 points	29.8%	29.0%	41.7%	0.69×	3.45
Under 221.5 points	20.8%	24.4%	37.8%	0.64×	4.10
Over 251.5 points	20.6%	24.4%	12.8%	1.90×	4.10
Under 218.5 points	21.2%	21.9%	32.2%	0.68×	4.57
Over 248.5 points	21.2%	21.9%	15.6%	1.41×	4.57
Under 216.5 points	13.9%	15.0%	28.4%	0.53×	6.68
Over 256.5 points	13.8%	15.0%	8.4%	1.77×	6.68
Under 213.5 points	14.4%	14.5%	23.6%	0.62×	6.88
Over 253.5 points	14.3%	14.5%	10.9%	1.34×	6.88

Win both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Golden State Warriors to win both halves	36.6%	36.3%	25.2%	1.44×	2.76
Memphis Grizzlies to win both halves	10.0%	14.0%	17.8%	0.79×	7.13

Winning margin 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Golden State Warriors by 1-5	13.3%	12.3%	12.8%	0.96×	8.11
Golden State Warriors by 6-10	14.0%	12.3%	13.9%	0.88×	8.11
Golden State Warriors by 11-15	13.2%	12.3%	10.8%	1.14×	8.11
Memphis Grizzlies by 1-5	10.7%	12.3%	12.3%	1.01×	8.11
Golden State Warriors by 16-20	11.0%	12.3%	7.3%	1.68×	8.11
Golden State Warriors by 26+	11.4%	12.3%	6.2%	1.99×	8.11
Golden State Warriors by 21-25	8.1%	7.5%	4.7%	1.58×	13.40
Memphis Grizzlies by 6-10	7.8%	7.5%	12.3%	0.61×	13.40
Memphis Grizzlies by 11-15	5.1%	7.5%	8.0%	0.93×	13.41
Memphis Grizzlies by 16-20	2.9%	2.0%	4.9%	0.42×	49.30
Memphis Grizzlies by 21-25	1.5%	2.0%	3.0%	0.67×	49.31
Memphis Grizzlies by 26+	1.1%	2.0%	3.9%	0.53×	49.32

Golden State Warriors v Memphis Grizzlies — Prediction, Odds & Stats

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