Harvard Crimson v Illinois State Redbirds — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 25 November 2026 · NCAAW · 2027

NCAAW results-only Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 03:45 UTC

Harvard Crimson

05:00 UTC

Illinois State Redbirds

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Harvard Crimson win

90.5%

Draw

0.0%

Illinois State Redbirds win

9.5%

90010

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
nba-normal	90010	69.26–54.65	69-55 0%	51%	0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Harvard Crimson to score 100+	0.1%	0.4%	1.8%	0.20×	283.34
Harvard Crimson to score 110+	0.0%	0.4%	0.6%	0.64×	283.36
Harvard Crimson to score 120+	0.0%	0.4%	0.1%	2.91×	283.36
Harvard Crimson to score 130+	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	7.58×	283.36
Illinois State Redbirds to score 100+	0.0%	0.4%	0.5%	0.71×	283.36
Illinois State Redbirds to score 110+	0.0%	0.4%	0.1%	4.74×	283.36
Illinois State Redbirds to score 120+	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	18.95×	283.36
Illinois State Redbirds to score 130+	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	37.89×	283.36
Both sides to score 100+	0.0%	0.4%	0.1%	6.32×	283.36

H1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Harvard Crimson to win H1	76.5%	79.2%	56.4%	1.40×	1.26
Illinois State Redbirds to win H1	20.1%	21.4%	39.9%	0.54×	4.68
H1 tied	3.4%	3.9%	3.7%	1.05×	25.86

H1 total 22

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H1 under 72.5	89.9%	87.7%	83.6%	1.05×	1.14
H1 over 48.5	87.4%	87.7%	88.8%	0.99×	1.14
H1 under 68.5	81.1%	82.5%	73.5%	1.12×	1.21
H1 over 52.5	76.9%	77.4%	79.6%	0.97×	1.29
H1 under 65.5	71.9%	73.5%	63.9%	1.15×	1.36
H1 over 55.5	66.6%	67.4%	71.0%	0.95×	1.48
H1 under 63.5	64.8%	62.7%	57.1%	1.10×	1.59
H1 over 57.5	58.9%	58.2%	64.8%	0.90×	1.72
H1 under 61.5	57.1%	58.2%	49.8%	1.17×	1.72
H1 under 60.5	53.1%	52.6%	46.1%	1.14×	1.90
H1 over 59.5	50.9%	52.6%	57.8%	0.91×	1.90
H1 under 59.5	49.1%	47.4%	42.2%	1.12×	2.11
H1 over 60.5	46.9%	47.4%	53.9%	0.88×	2.11
H1 over 61.5	42.9%	41.8%	50.2%	0.83×	2.39
H1 under 57.5	41.1%	41.8%	35.2%	1.19×	2.39
H1 over 63.5	35.2%	37.3%	42.9%	0.87×	2.68
H1 under 55.5	33.4%	32.6%	29.0%	1.12×	3.07
H1 over 65.5	28.1%	26.5%	36.1%	0.73×	3.77
H1 under 52.5	23.1%	22.6%	20.4%	1.11×	4.43
H1 over 68.5	18.9%	17.5%	26.5%	0.66×	5.72
H1 under 48.5	12.6%	12.3%	11.2%	1.10×	8.14
H1 over 72.5	10.1%	12.3%	16.4%	0.75×	8.14

H2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Harvard Crimson to win H2	77.9%	73.9%	56.0%	1.32×	1.35
Illinois State Redbirds to win H2	18.9%	20.4%	40.6%	0.50×	4.89
H2 tied	3.1%	3.9%	3.4%	1.16×	25.36

H2 total 22

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H2 over 53.5	87.8%	85.2%	89.7%	0.95×	1.17
H2 under 77.5	87.6%	85.2%	77.9%	1.09×	1.17
H2 over 57.5	77.9%	75.8%	82.2%	0.92×	1.32
H2 under 73.5	78.1%	75.8%	67.1%	1.13×	1.32
H2 under 70.5	68.8%	66.4%	57.8%	1.15×	1.51
H2 over 60.5	68.2%	66.4%	74.5%	0.89×	1.51
H2 under 68.5	61.8%	61.6%	51.3%	1.20×	1.62
H2 over 62.5	61.0%	61.6%	68.3%	0.90×	1.62
H2 over 64.5	53.4%	52.4%	62.1%	0.84×	1.91
H2 under 66.5	54.3%	52.4%	44.6%	1.17×	1.91
H2 under 65.5	50.4%	52.4%	41.2%	1.27×	1.91
H2 over 65.5	49.6%	47.6%	58.8%	0.81×	2.10
H2 under 64.5	46.6%	47.6%	37.9%	1.26×	2.10
H2 over 66.5	45.7%	47.6%	55.4%	0.86×	2.10
H2 under 62.5	39.0%	38.4%	31.7%	1.21×	2.61
H2 over 68.5	38.2%	38.4%	48.7%	0.79×	2.61
H2 under 60.5	31.8%	33.6%	25.5%	1.32×	2.97
H2 over 70.5	31.2%	33.6%	42.2%	0.80×	2.97
H2 under 57.5	22.1%	24.2%	17.8%	1.36×	4.13
H2 over 73.5	21.9%	24.2%	32.9%	0.74×	4.13
H2 under 53.5	12.2%	14.8%	10.3%	1.43×	6.76
H2 over 77.5	12.4%	14.8%	22.1%	0.67×	6.76

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Harvard Crimson leading at half time	76.5%	79.7%	56.4%	1.41×	1.26
Illinois State Redbirds leading at half time	20.1%	20.9%	39.9%	0.52×	4.78
Level at half time	3.4%	3.8%	3.7%	1.03×	26.41

Handicap 60

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Harvard Crimson +14.5	99.5%	97.4%	86.7%	1.12×	1.03
Harvard Crimson +16.5	99.7%	97.4%	89.1%	1.09×	1.03
Harvard Crimson +18.5	99.8%	97.4%	91.1%	1.07×	1.03
Harvard Crimson +20.5	99.9%	97.4%	92.7%	1.05×	1.03
Harvard Crimson +5.5	96.1%	97.4%	70.1%	1.39×	1.03
Harvard Crimson +6.5	96.8%	97.4%	72.3%	1.35×	1.03
Harvard Crimson +7.5	97.4%	97.4%	74.5%	1.31×	1.03
Harvard Crimson +8.5	97.9%	97.4%	76.5%	1.27×	1.03
Harvard Crimson +9.5	98.3%	97.4%	78.7%	1.24×	1.03
Harvard Crimson +10.5	98.7%	97.4%	80.4%	1.21×	1.03
Harvard Crimson +12.5	99.2%	97.4%	83.8%	1.16×	1.03
Harvard Crimson +4.5	95.3%	97.4%	67.8%	1.44×	1.03
Harvard Crimson +3.5	94.3%	91.1%	65.7%	1.39×	1.10
Harvard Crimson +2.5	93.2%	91.1%	63.3%	1.44×	1.10
Harvard Crimson +1.5	91.9%	91.1%	61.2%	1.49×	1.10
Harvard Crimson −1.5	88.7%	85.9%	58.7%	1.46×	1.16
Harvard Crimson −2.5	86.6%	85.9%	56.7%	1.51×	1.16
Harvard Crimson −3.5	84.4%	81.1%	54.2%	1.50×	1.23
Harvard Crimson −4.5	82.0%	81.1%	52.2%	1.56×	1.23
Harvard Crimson −5.5	79.3%	76.5%	49.7%	1.54×	1.31
Harvard Crimson −6.5	76.5%	76.5%	47.6%	1.61×	1.31
Harvard Crimson −7.5	73.5%	71.6%	44.8%	1.60×	1.40
Illinois State Redbirds +20.5	72.1%	71.6%	82.0%	0.87×	1.40
Harvard Crimson −8.5	70.4%	71.6%	42.0%	1.71×	1.40
Harvard Crimson −9.5	67.0%	66.7%	39.3%	1.70×	1.50
Illinois State Redbirds +18.5	65.5%	66.7%	79.3%	0.84×	1.50
Harvard Crimson −10.5	63.6%	61.9%	36.8%	1.68×	1.62
Illinois State Redbirds +16.5	58.4%	57.1%	75.7%	0.75×	1.75
Harvard Crimson −12.5	56.4%	57.1%	32.1%	1.78×	1.75
Illinois State Redbirds +14.5	51.1%	52.4%	72.1%	0.73×	1.91
Harvard Crimson −14.5	48.9%	47.6%	27.9%	1.71×	2.10
Illinois State Redbirds +12.5	43.6%	42.9%	67.9%	0.63×	2.33
Harvard Crimson −16.5	41.6%	42.9%	24.3%	1.77×	2.33
Illinois State Redbirds +10.5	36.4%	38.1%	63.2%	0.60×	2.63
Harvard Crimson −18.5	34.5%	33.3%	20.7%	1.61×	3.01
Illinois State Redbirds +9.5	33.0%	33.3%	60.7%	0.55×	3.01
Illinois State Redbirds +8.5	29.7%	28.4%	58.0%	0.49×	3.53
Harvard Crimson −20.5	27.9%	28.4%	18.0%	1.58×	3.53
Illinois State Redbirds +7.5	26.5%	28.4%	55.2%	0.51×	3.53
Illinois State Redbirds +6.5	23.5%	23.5%	52.4%	0.45×	4.25
Illinois State Redbirds +5.5	20.7%	23.5%	50.3%	0.47×	4.25
Illinois State Redbirds +4.5	18.0%	18.9%	47.8%	0.39×	5.29
Illinois State Redbirds +3.5	15.6%	18.9%	45.8%	0.41×	5.30
Illinois State Redbirds +2.5	13.4%	14.1%	43.3%	0.33×	7.09
Illinois State Redbirds +1.5	11.4%	14.1%	41.3%	0.34×	7.09
Illinois State Redbirds −1.5	8.1%	8.9%	38.8%	0.23×	11.25
Illinois State Redbirds −2.5	6.8%	8.9%	36.7%	0.24×	11.25
Illinois State Redbirds −3.5	5.7%	8.9%	34.3%	0.26×	11.25
Illinois State Redbirds −4.5	4.7%	2.6%	32.2%	0.08×	38.72
Illinois State Redbirds −5.5	3.9%	2.6%	29.9%	0.09×	38.73
Illinois State Redbirds −6.5	3.2%	2.6%	27.7%	0.09×	38.73
Illinois State Redbirds −7.5	2.6%	2.6%	25.5%	0.10×	38.73
Illinois State Redbirds −8.5	2.1%	2.6%	23.5%	0.11×	38.73
Illinois State Redbirds −9.5	1.7%	2.6%	21.3%	0.12×	38.73
Illinois State Redbirds −10.5	1.3%	2.6%	19.6%	0.13×	38.74
Illinois State Redbirds −12.5	0.8%	2.6%	16.2%	0.16×	38.74
Illinois State Redbirds −14.5	0.5%	2.6%	13.3%	0.19×	38.74
Illinois State Redbirds −16.5	0.3%	2.6%	10.9%	0.24×	38.74
Illinois State Redbirds −18.5	0.2%	2.6%	8.9%	0.29×	38.74
Illinois State Redbirds −20.5	0.1%	2.6%	7.3%	0.35×	38.74

Highest scoring half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	71.1%	67.1%	66.7%	1.01×	1.49
1st half highest scoring	28.9%	32.9%	33.3%	0.99×	3.04

Highest scoring quarter 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q4 highest scoring	34.1%	31.9%	31.2%	1.02×	3.14
Q3 highest scoring	32.3%	31.9%	31.3%	1.02×	3.14
Q1 highest scoring	17.5%	18.3%	19.6%	0.94×	5.46
Q2 highest scoring	16.1%	18.3%	17.9%	1.02×	5.46

HT/FT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Harvard Crimson at HT / Harvard Crimson at FT	73.3%	73.2%	48.3%	1.52×	1.37
Illinois State Redbirds at HT / Harvard Crimson at FT	14.3%	12.2%	9.8%	1.25×	8.17
Illinois State Redbirds at HT / Illinois State Redbirds at FT	5.9%	8.3%	30.1%	0.27×	12.10
Harvard Crimson at HT / Illinois State Redbirds at FT	3.2%	2.1%	8.2%	0.26×	47.74
Level at HT / Harvard Crimson at FT	2.9%	2.1%	1.9%	1.09×	47.74
Level at HT / Illinois State Redbirds at FT	0.5%	2.1%	1.8%	1.20×	47.78

Moneyline 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Harvard Crimson to win	90.5%	90.6%	59.9%	1.51×	1.10
Illinois State Redbirds to win	9.5%	9.4%	40.1%	0.24×	10.60

Odd/Even 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Harvard Crimson even	50.0%	50.5%	49.4%	1.02×	1.98
Illinois State Redbirds even	50.3%	50.5%	50.1%	1.01×	1.98
Total points odd	50.8%	50.5%	51.5%	0.98×	1.98
Harvard Crimson odd	50.0%	49.5%	50.6%	0.98×	2.02
Illinois State Redbirds odd	49.7%	49.5%	49.9%	0.99×	2.02
Total points even	49.2%	49.5%	48.5%	1.02×	2.02

Overtime 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No overtime	96.3%	97.0%	95.6%	1.02×	1.03
Match to go to overtime	3.7%	3.0%	4.4%	0.68×	33.41

Q1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Harvard Crimson to win Q1	67.3%	72.3%	54.7%	1.32×	1.38
Illinois State Redbirds to win Q1	27.3%	22.4%	40.4%	0.56×	4.46
Q1 tied	5.4%	5.5%	4.9%	1.11×	18.33

Q1 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 under 38.5	89.7%	87.4%	84.8%	1.03×	1.14
Q1 over 22.5	87.2%	87.4%	88.8%	0.98×	1.14
Q1 under 35.5	79.3%	76.9%	73.2%	1.05×	1.30
Q1 over 25.5	75.2%	76.9%	77.6%	0.99×	1.30
Q1 under 33.5	69.8%	67.6%	64.0%	1.06×	1.48
Q1 over 27.5	64.8%	61.7%	67.7%	0.91×	1.62
Q1 under 31.5	58.7%	58.6%	54.0%	1.09×	1.71
Q1 over 29.5	53.2%	52.7%	56.9%	0.93×	1.90
Q1 under 30.5	52.8%	52.7%	48.8%	1.08×	1.90
Q1 over 30.5	47.2%	47.3%	51.2%	0.92×	2.11
Q1 under 29.5	46.8%	47.3%	43.1%	1.10×	2.11
Q1 over 31.5	41.3%	41.4%	46.0%	0.90×	2.42
Q1 under 27.5	35.2%	38.3%	32.3%	1.18×	2.61
Q1 over 33.5	30.2%	32.4%	36.0%	0.90×	3.08
Q1 under 25.5	24.8%	23.1%	22.4%	1.03×	4.33
Q1 over 35.5	20.7%	23.1%	26.8%	0.86×	4.33
Q1 under 22.5	12.8%	12.6%	11.2%	1.12×	7.95
Q1 over 38.5	10.3%	12.6%	15.2%	0.83×	7.95

Q2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Harvard Crimson to win Q2	66.8%	68.4%	52.9%	1.29×	1.46
Illinois State Redbirds to win Q2	27.9%	27.7%	41.5%	0.67×	3.61
Q2 tied	5.3%	6.1%	5.7%	1.06×	16.50

Q2 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q2 over 21.5	89.2%	87.3%	90.2%	0.97×	1.15
Q2 under 37.5	87.7%	87.3%	82.3%	1.06×	1.15
Q2 over 24.5	78.4%	76.8%	80.7%	0.95×	1.30
Q2 under 34.5	76.2%	76.8%	70.1%	1.10×	1.30
Q2 over 26.5	68.6%	67.4%	71.6%	0.94×	1.49
Q2 under 32.5	66.1%	67.4%	60.8%	1.11×	1.49
Q2 over 28.5	57.3%	58.2%	61.2%	0.95×	1.72
Q2 under 30.5	54.6%	52.7%	50.1%	1.05×	1.90
Q2 over 29.5	51.3%	52.7%	55.8%	0.94×	1.90
Q2 under 29.5	48.7%	47.3%	44.2%	1.07×	2.11
Q2 over 30.5	45.4%	47.3%	49.9%	0.95×	2.11
Q2 under 28.5	42.7%	41.8%	38.8%	1.08×	2.39
Q2 over 32.5	33.9%	32.6%	39.2%	0.83×	3.06
Q2 under 26.5	31.4%	32.6%	28.4%	1.15×	3.06
Q2 over 34.5	23.8%	23.2%	29.9%	0.78×	4.31
Q2 under 24.5	21.6%	23.2%	19.3%	1.20×	4.31
Q2 over 37.5	12.3%	12.7%	17.7%	0.72×	7.89
Q2 under 21.5	10.8%	12.7%	9.8%	1.30×	7.90

Q3 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Harvard Crimson to win Q3	68.5%	66.7%	53.3%	1.25×	1.50
Illinois State Redbirds to win Q3	26.4%	28.8%	41.8%	0.69×	3.47
Q3 tied	5.1%	5.3%	4.9%	1.07×	18.98

Q3 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q3 over 24.5	88.5%	87.2%	89.9%	0.97×	1.15
Q3 under 40.5	87.2%	87.2%	81.9%	1.07×	1.15
Q3 over 27.5	77.6%	77.3%	80.0%	0.97×	1.29
Q3 under 37.5	75.8%	77.3%	69.7%	1.11×	1.29
Q3 over 29.5	67.9%	67.8%	71.8%	0.94×	1.48
Q3 under 35.5	65.9%	67.8%	59.7%	1.14×	1.48
Q3 over 31.5	56.9%	58.4%	61.6%	0.95×	1.71
Q3 under 33.5	54.7%	52.3%	49.1%	1.07×	1.91
Q3 over 32.5	51.1%	52.3%	56.1%	0.93×	1.91
Q3 under 32.5	48.9%	47.7%	43.9%	1.09×	2.10
Q3 over 33.5	45.3%	47.7%	50.9%	0.94×	2.10
Q3 under 31.5	43.1%	41.6%	38.4%	1.08×	2.40
Q3 over 35.5	34.1%	32.2%	40.3%	0.80×	3.10
Q3 under 29.5	32.1%	32.2%	28.2%	1.14×	3.10
Q3 over 37.5	24.2%	22.7%	30.3%	0.75×	4.40
Q3 under 27.5	22.4%	22.7%	20.0%	1.14×	4.40
Q3 over 40.5	12.8%	12.8%	18.1%	0.70×	7.83
Q3 under 24.5	11.5%	12.8%	10.1%	1.27×	7.83

Q4 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Harvard Crimson to win Q4	68.2%	60.7%	52.8%	1.15×	1.65
Illinois State Redbirds to win Q4	26.8%	33.3%	41.5%	0.80×	3.00
Q4 tied	5.1%	5.8%	5.7%	1.02×	17.26

Q4 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q4 under 41.5	88.5%	85.6%	83.6%	1.02×	1.17
Q4 over 25.5	84.2%	82.0%	86.1%	0.95×	1.22
Q4 under 38.5	78.5%	76.9%	73.1%	1.05×	1.30
Q4 over 28.5	72.1%	71.5%	75.1%	0.95×	1.40
Q4 under 36.5	69.7%	67.4%	64.3%	1.05×	1.48
Q4 over 30.5	62.2%	61.4%	66.3%	0.93×	1.63
Q4 under 34.5	59.5%	58.4%	54.4%	1.07×	1.71
Q4 under 33.5	54.1%	52.5%	49.6%	1.06×	1.91
Q4 over 32.5	51.4%	52.5%	55.4%	0.95×	1.91
Q4 under 32.5	48.6%	47.5%	44.6%	1.07×	2.11
Q4 over 33.5	45.9%	47.5%	50.4%	0.94×	2.11
Q4 over 34.5	40.5%	41.6%	45.6%	0.91×	2.40
Q4 under 30.5	37.8%	38.6%	33.7%	1.14×	2.59
Q4 over 36.5	30.3%	32.6%	35.7%	0.91×	3.07
Q4 under 28.5	27.9%	28.5%	24.9%	1.14×	3.51
Q4 over 38.5	21.5%	23.1%	26.9%	0.86×	4.33
Q4 under 25.5	15.8%	18.0%	13.9%	1.30×	5.56
Q4 over 41.5	11.5%	14.4%	16.4%	0.88×	6.95

Team total 44

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Illinois State Redbirds over 45.5	88.2%	83.9%	91.3%	0.92×	1.19
Illinois State Redbirds under 65.5	87.5%	83.9%	59.8%	1.40×	1.19
Harvard Crimson over 59.5	86.1%	83.9%	72.2%	1.16×	1.19
Harvard Crimson under 79.5	85.1%	83.9%	81.3%	1.03×	1.19
Illinois State Redbirds under 62.5	79.4%	75.1%	51.0%	1.47×	1.33
Harvard Crimson over 62.5	77.8%	75.1%	64.3%	1.17×	1.33
Illinois State Redbirds over 48.5	78.4%	75.1%	86.7%	0.87×	1.33
Harvard Crimson under 76.5	76.5%	75.1%	75.4%	1.00×	1.33
Illinois State Redbirds under 60.5	72.6%	70.7%	44.4%	1.59×	1.41
Harvard Crimson over 64.5	71.0%	70.7%	58.4%	1.21×	1.41
Illinois State Redbirds over 50.5	70.5%	70.7%	83.1%	0.85×	1.41
Harvard Crimson under 74.5	69.5%	66.4%	70.7%	0.94×	1.51
Illinois State Redbirds under 58.5	64.7%	61.2%	37.9%	1.62×	1.63
Harvard Crimson over 66.5	63.3%	61.2%	51.8%	1.18×	1.63
Harvard Crimson under 72.5	61.7%	61.2%	65.7%	0.93×	1.63
Illinois State Redbirds over 52.5	61.9%	61.2%	78.5%	0.78×	1.63
Illinois State Redbirds under 56.5	56.1%	57.1%	32.0%	1.79×	1.75
Harvard Crimson over 68.5	55.1%	57.1%	45.6%	1.25×	1.75
Harvard Crimson under 70.5	53.4%	52.3%	60.3%	0.87×	1.91
Illinois State Redbirds over 54.5	52.9%	52.3%	73.5%	0.71×	1.91
Illinois State Redbirds under 55.5	51.6%	52.3%	29.2%	1.79×	1.91
Harvard Crimson over 69.5	50.8%	52.3%	42.6%	1.23×	1.91
Harvard Crimson under 69.5	49.2%	47.7%	57.4%	0.83×	2.09
Harvard Crimson over 70.5	46.6%	47.7%	39.7%	1.20×	2.09
Illinois State Redbirds under 54.5	47.1%	47.7%	26.5%	1.80×	2.09
Illinois State Redbirds over 55.5	48.4%	47.7%	70.8%	0.67×	2.09
Harvard Crimson under 68.5	44.9%	42.9%	54.4%	0.79×	2.33
Illinois State Redbirds over 56.5	43.9%	42.9%	68.0%	0.63×	2.33
Harvard Crimson over 72.5	38.3%	38.8%	34.3%	1.13×	2.58
Illinois State Redbirds under 52.5	38.1%	38.8%	21.5%	1.80×	2.58
Harvard Crimson under 66.5	36.7%	38.8%	48.2%	0.81×	2.58
Illinois State Redbirds over 58.5	35.3%	38.8%	62.1%	0.62×	2.58
Harvard Crimson over 74.5	30.5%	33.6%	29.3%	1.15×	2.98
Harvard Crimson under 64.5	29.0%	29.3%	41.6%	0.70×	3.42
Illinois State Redbirds under 50.5	29.5%	29.3%	16.9%	1.74×	3.42
Illinois State Redbirds over 60.5	27.4%	29.3%	55.6%	0.53×	3.42
Harvard Crimson over 76.5	23.5%	24.9%	24.6%	1.01×	4.02
Harvard Crimson under 62.5	22.2%	24.9%	35.7%	0.70×	4.02
Illinois State Redbirds under 48.5	21.6%	24.9%	13.3%	1.87×	4.02
Illinois State Redbirds over 62.5	20.6%	24.9%	49.0%	0.51×	4.02
Harvard Crimson over 79.5	14.9%	16.1%	18.7%	0.86×	6.21
Harvard Crimson under 59.5	13.9%	16.1%	27.8%	0.58×	6.21
Illinois State Redbirds under 45.5	11.8%	16.1%	8.7%	1.86×	6.21
Illinois State Redbirds over 65.5	12.5%	16.1%	40.2%	0.40×	6.21

Total points 30

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 105.5 points	92.3%	88.8%	91.9%	0.97×	1.13
Under 145.5 points	91.9%	88.8%	79.5%	1.12×	1.13
Under 140.5 points	85.6%	85.0%	71.8%	1.19×	1.18
Over 110.5 points	85.1%	85.0%	86.4%	0.98×	1.18
Under 135.5 points	76.6%	75.6%	62.4%	1.21×	1.32
Over 115.5 points	74.8%	70.8%	78.8%	0.90×	1.41
Under 132.5 points	69.9%	65.9%	56.0%	1.18×	1.52
Over 118.5 points	67.5%	65.9%	73.6%	0.90×	1.52
Under 130.5 points	65.0%	61.5%	51.7%	1.19×	1.63
Over 120.5 points	62.2%	61.5%	69.8%	0.88×	1.63
Under 128.5 points	59.8%	56.5%	47.2%	1.20×	1.77
Over 122.5 points	56.7%	56.5%	65.6%	0.86×	1.77
Under 126.5 points	54.4%	52.3%	42.6%	1.23×	1.91
Under 125.5 points	51.7%	52.3%	40.5%	1.29×	1.91
Over 124.5 points	51.2%	52.3%	61.5%	0.85×	1.91
Under 124.5 points	48.8%	47.7%	38.5%	1.24×	2.10
Over 125.5 points	48.3%	47.7%	59.5%	0.80×	2.10
Over 126.5 points	45.6%	47.7%	57.4%	0.83×	2.10
Under 122.5 points	43.3%	43.5%	34.4%	1.26×	2.30
Over 128.5 points	40.2%	43.5%	52.8%	0.82×	2.30
Under 120.5 points	37.8%	38.5%	30.2%	1.28×	2.60
Over 130.5 points	35.0%	38.5%	48.3%	0.80×	2.60
Under 118.5 points	32.5%	34.1%	26.4%	1.29×	2.93
Over 132.5 points	30.1%	34.1%	44.0%	0.77×	2.93
Under 115.5 points	25.2%	29.2%	21.2%	1.38×	3.43
Over 135.5 points	23.4%	24.4%	37.6%	0.65×	4.10
Under 110.5 points	14.9%	15.0%	13.6%	1.10×	6.68
Over 140.5 points	14.4%	15.0%	28.2%	0.53×	6.68
Over 145.5 points	8.1%	11.2%	20.5%	0.54×	8.96
Under 105.5 points	7.7%	11.2%	8.1%	1.38×	8.97

Win both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Harvard Crimson to win both halves	57.7%	57.8%	36.0%	1.60×	1.73
Illinois State Redbirds to win both halves	2.3%	3.0%	20.4%	0.15×	33.70

Winning margin 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Harvard Crimson by 11-15	18.3%	16.8%	10.8%	1.55×	5.97
Harvard Crimson by 16-20	17.4%	16.8%	8.0%	2.08×	5.97
Harvard Crimson by 6-10	15.8%	16.8%	12.9%	1.30×	5.97
Harvard Crimson by 26+	14.5%	12.3%	12.6%	0.98×	8.11
Harvard Crimson by 21-25	13.3%	12.3%	5.4%	2.29×	8.11
Harvard Crimson by 1-5	11.1%	12.3%	10.2%	1.21×	8.11
Illinois State Redbirds by 1-5	5.6%	7.5%	10.2%	0.73×	13.40
Illinois State Redbirds by 6-10	2.6%	2.0%	10.3%	0.20×	49.31
Illinois State Redbirds by 11-15	1.0%	2.0%	7.6%	0.27×	49.32
Illinois State Redbirds by 16-20	0.3%	2.0%	4.8%	0.43×	49.33
Illinois State Redbirds by 21-25	0.1%	2.0%	2.7%	0.76×	49.33
Illinois State Redbirds by 26+	0.0%	2.0%	4.6%	0.44×	49.33

Harvard Crimson v Illinois State Redbirds — Prediction, Odds & Stats

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