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Holy Cross Crusaders v Harvard Crimson — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 9 November 2026 · NCAAW · 2027

NCAAW results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Holy Cross Crusaders win
23.4%
Draw
0.0%
Harvard Crimson win
76.6%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 53.24–61.60 53-62 0% 53% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Holy Cross Crusaders to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 1.8% 0.20× 283.36
Holy Cross Crusaders to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.64× 283.36
Holy Cross Crusaders to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 2.91× 283.36
Holy Cross Crusaders to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 7.58× 283.36
Harvard Crimson to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.72× 283.36
Harvard Crimson to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.74× 283.36
Harvard Crimson to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 18.95× 283.36
Harvard Crimson to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 37.89× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 6.32× 283.36
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harvard Crimson to win H1 64.4% 62.3% 39.9% 1.56× 1.61
Holy Cross Crusaders to win H1 31.4% 33.1% 56.4% 0.59× 3.02
H1 tied 4.2% 3.9% 3.7% 1.05× 25.86
H1 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 68.5 90.2% 90.8% 73.5% 1.24× 1.10
H1 over 44.5 87.9% 87.7% 94.7% 0.93× 1.14
H1 under 64.5 81.4% 82.5% 60.7% 1.36× 1.21
H1 over 48.5 77.2% 77.4% 88.8% 0.87× 1.29
H1 under 61.5 72.2% 73.5% 49.8% 1.48× 1.36
H1 over 51.5 66.8% 67.4% 82.0% 0.82× 1.48
H1 under 59.5 65.1% 67.4% 42.2% 1.60× 1.48
H1 over 53.5 59.0% 58.2% 76.8% 0.76× 1.72
H1 under 57.5 57.3% 58.2% 35.2% 1.65× 1.72
H1 under 56.5 53.3% 52.6% 31.8% 1.66× 1.90
H1 over 55.5 50.8% 52.6% 71.0% 0.74× 1.90
H1 under 55.5 49.2% 47.4% 29.0% 1.63× 2.11
H1 over 56.5 46.7% 47.4% 68.2% 0.69× 2.11
H1 over 57.5 42.7% 41.8% 64.8% 0.64× 2.39
H1 under 53.5 41.0% 41.8% 23.2% 1.80× 2.39
H1 over 59.5 34.9% 32.6% 57.8% 0.56× 3.07
H1 under 51.5 33.2% 32.6% 18.0% 1.81× 3.07
H1 over 61.5 27.8% 26.5% 50.2% 0.53× 3.77
H1 under 48.5 22.8% 22.6% 11.2% 2.02× 4.43
H1 over 64.5 18.6% 17.5% 39.3% 0.44× 5.72
H1 under 44.5 12.1% 12.3% 5.3% 2.34× 8.14
H1 over 68.5 9.8% 9.2% 26.5% 0.35× 10.87
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harvard Crimson to win H2 65.4% 62.7% 40.6% 1.55× 1.59
Holy Cross Crusaders to win H2 30.6% 36.3% 56.0% 0.65× 2.76
H2 tied 4.0% 3.9% 3.4% 1.16× 25.35
H2 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 73.5 88.7% 85.2% 67.1% 1.27× 1.17
H2 over 49.5 87.5% 85.2% 95.0% 0.90× 1.17
H2 under 69.5 79.6% 75.8% 54.8% 1.38× 1.32
H2 over 53.5 77.1% 75.8% 89.7% 0.85× 1.32
H2 under 66.5 70.4% 72.2% 44.6% 1.62× 1.39
H2 over 56.5 67.1% 66.4% 84.1% 0.79× 1.51
H2 under 64.5 63.4% 61.6% 37.9% 1.63× 1.62
H2 over 58.5 59.7% 57.3% 79.6% 0.72× 1.74
H2 under 62.5 55.9% 57.3% 31.7% 1.81× 1.74
H2 over 60.5 51.9% 52.4% 74.5% 0.70× 1.91
H2 under 61.5 52.0% 52.4% 28.7% 1.82× 1.91
H2 under 60.5 48.1% 47.6% 25.5% 1.87× 2.10
H2 over 61.5 48.0% 47.6% 71.3% 0.67× 2.10
H2 over 62.5 44.1% 42.7% 68.3% 0.62× 2.34
H2 under 58.5 40.3% 42.7% 20.4% 2.09× 2.35
H2 over 64.5 36.6% 38.4% 62.1% 0.62× 2.61
H2 under 56.5 32.9% 33.6% 15.9% 2.12× 2.97
H2 over 66.5 29.6% 27.8% 55.4% 0.50× 3.59
H2 under 53.5 22.9% 24.2% 10.3% 2.34× 4.13
H2 over 69.5 20.4% 24.2% 45.2% 0.54× 4.13
H2 under 49.5 12.5% 14.8% 5.0% 2.94× 6.76
H2 over 73.5 11.3% 14.8% 32.9% 0.45× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harvard Crimson leading at half time 64.4% 62.5% 39.9% 1.57× 1.60
Holy Cross Crusaders leading at half time 31.4% 32.7% 56.4% 0.58× 3.06
Level at half time 4.2% 3.8% 3.7% 1.03× 26.40
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harvard Crimson +20.5 99.5% 97.4% 82.0% 1.19× 1.03
Harvard Crimson +12.5 96.8% 97.4% 67.9% 1.44× 1.03
Harvard Crimson +14.5 97.9% 97.4% 72.1% 1.35× 1.03
Harvard Crimson +16.5 98.7% 97.4% 75.7% 1.29× 1.03
Harvard Crimson +18.5 99.2% 97.4% 79.3% 1.23× 1.03
Harvard Crimson +10.5 95.2% 97.4% 63.2% 1.54× 1.03
Harvard Crimson +9.5 94.2% 91.1% 60.7% 1.50× 1.10
Harvard Crimson +8.5 93.0% 91.1% 58.0% 1.57× 1.10
Harvard Crimson +6.5 90.1% 91.1% 52.4% 1.74× 1.10
Harvard Crimson +7.5 91.7% 91.1% 55.2% 1.65× 1.10
Holy Cross Crusaders +20.5 88.8% 85.9% 92.7% 0.93× 1.16
Harvard Crimson +5.5 88.4% 85.9% 50.3% 1.71× 1.16
Harvard Crimson +4.5 86.5% 85.9% 47.8% 1.80× 1.16
Harvard Crimson +3.5 84.3% 81.1% 45.8% 1.77× 1.23
Holy Cross Crusaders +18.5 84.6% 81.1% 91.1% 0.89× 1.23
Harvard Crimson +2.5 82.0% 81.1% 43.3% 1.87× 1.23
Harvard Crimson +1.5 79.4% 76.5% 41.3% 1.85× 1.31
Holy Cross Crusaders +16.5 79.6% 76.5% 89.1% 0.86× 1.31
Holy Cross Crusaders +14.5 73.7% 71.6% 86.7% 0.83× 1.40
Harvard Crimson −1.5 73.4% 71.6% 38.8% 1.85× 1.40
Harvard Crimson −2.5 70.1% 71.6% 36.7% 1.95× 1.40
Harvard Crimson −3.5 66.6% 66.7% 34.3% 1.95× 1.50
Holy Cross Crusaders +12.5 67.0% 66.7% 83.8% 0.80× 1.50
Harvard Crimson −4.5 63.0% 61.9% 32.2% 1.92× 1.62
Harvard Crimson −5.5 59.3% 57.1% 29.9% 1.91× 1.75
Holy Cross Crusaders +10.5 59.8% 57.1% 80.4% 0.71× 1.75
Harvard Crimson −6.5 55.5% 57.1% 27.7% 2.06× 1.75
Holy Cross Crusaders +9.5 56.0% 57.1% 78.7% 0.73× 1.75
Holy Cross Crusaders +8.5 52.2% 52.4% 76.5% 0.69× 1.91
Harvard Crimson −7.5 51.6% 52.4% 25.5% 2.06× 1.91
Holy Cross Crusaders +7.5 48.4% 47.6% 74.5% 0.64× 2.10
Harvard Crimson −8.5 47.8% 47.6% 23.5% 2.02× 2.10
Holy Cross Crusaders +6.5 44.5% 42.9% 72.3% 0.59× 2.33
Harvard Crimson −9.5 44.0% 42.9% 21.3% 2.01× 2.33
Holy Cross Crusaders +5.5 40.7% 42.9% 70.1% 0.61× 2.33
Harvard Crimson −10.5 40.2% 42.9% 19.6% 2.19× 2.33
Holy Cross Crusaders +4.5 37.0% 38.1% 67.8% 0.56× 2.63
Holy Cross Crusaders +3.5 33.4% 33.3% 65.7% 0.51× 3.01
Harvard Crimson −12.5 33.0% 33.3% 16.2% 2.05× 3.01
Holy Cross Crusaders +2.5 29.9% 28.4% 63.3% 0.45× 3.53
Holy Cross Crusaders +1.5 26.6% 28.4% 61.2% 0.46× 3.53
Harvard Crimson −14.5 26.3% 28.4% 13.3% 2.14× 3.53
Holy Cross Crusaders −1.5 20.6% 23.5% 58.7% 0.40× 4.25
Harvard Crimson −16.5 20.4% 23.5% 10.9% 2.16× 4.25
Holy Cross Crusaders −2.5 18.0% 18.9% 56.7% 0.33× 5.29
Holy Cross Crusaders −3.5 15.7% 18.9% 54.2% 0.35× 5.30
Harvard Crimson −18.5 15.4% 18.9% 8.9% 2.12× 5.30
Holy Cross Crusaders −4.5 13.5% 14.1% 52.2% 0.27× 7.09
Holy Cross Crusaders −5.5 11.6% 14.1% 49.7% 0.28× 7.09
Harvard Crimson −20.5 11.2% 14.1% 7.3% 1.94× 7.09
Holy Cross Crusaders −6.5 9.9% 8.9% 47.6% 0.19× 11.25
Holy Cross Crusaders −7.5 8.3% 8.9% 44.8% 0.20× 11.25
Holy Cross Crusaders −8.5 7.0% 8.9% 42.0% 0.21× 11.25
Holy Cross Crusaders −9.5 5.8% 8.9% 39.3% 0.23× 11.25
Holy Cross Crusaders −10.5 4.8% 2.6% 36.8% 0.07× 38.72
Holy Cross Crusaders −12.5 3.2% 2.6% 32.1% 0.08× 38.73
Holy Cross Crusaders −14.5 2.1% 2.6% 27.9% 0.09× 38.73
Holy Cross Crusaders −16.5 1.3% 2.6% 24.3% 0.11× 38.74
Holy Cross Crusaders −18.5 0.8% 2.6% 20.7% 0.12× 38.74
Holy Cross Crusaders −20.5 0.5% 2.6% 18.0% 0.14× 38.74
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 69.9% 71.6% 66.7% 1.07× 1.40
1st half highest scoring 30.1% 28.4% 33.3% 0.85× 3.52
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 highest scoring 33.5% 31.9% 31.2% 1.02× 3.14
Q3 highest scoring 31.8% 31.9% 31.3% 1.02× 3.14
Q1 highest scoring 18.1% 18.3% 19.6% 0.94× 5.46
Q2 highest scoring 16.6% 18.3% 17.9% 1.02× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harvard Crimson at HT / Harvard Crimson at FT 57.2% 56.8% 30.1% 1.88× 1.76
Holy Cross Crusaders at HT / Harvard Crimson at FT 16.4% 15.5% 8.2% 1.89× 6.47
Holy Cross Crusaders at HT / Holy Cross Crusaders at FT 15.0% 12.2% 48.3% 0.25× 8.17
Harvard Crimson at HT / Holy Cross Crusaders at FT 7.2% 8.3% 9.8% 0.85× 12.09
Level at HT / Harvard Crimson at FT 3.0% 2.1% 1.8% 1.20× 47.74
Level at HT / Holy Cross Crusaders at FT 1.2% 2.1% 1.9% 1.09× 47.77
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harvard Crimson to win 76.6% 75.1% 40.1% 1.87× 1.33
Holy Cross Crusaders to win 23.4% 24.9% 59.9% 0.42× 4.01
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Total points odd 51.5% 50.5% 51.5% 0.98× 1.98
Holy Cross Crusaders even 50.4% 50.5% 49.4% 1.02× 1.98
Harvard Crimson even 50.1% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
Holy Cross Crusaders odd 49.6% 49.5% 50.6% 0.98× 2.02
Harvard Crimson odd 49.9% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
Total points even 48.5% 49.5% 48.5% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 94.7% 94.0% 95.6% 0.98× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 5.3% 6.0% 4.4% 1.35× 16.66
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harvard Crimson to win Q1 58.3% 57.3% 40.4% 1.42× 1.75
Holy Cross Crusaders to win Q1 35.8% 38.2% 54.7% 0.70× 2.62
Q1 tied 5.9% 5.5% 4.9% 1.11× 18.32
Q1 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 under 36.5 89.8% 87.4% 77.4% 1.13× 1.14
Q1 over 20.5 87.4% 87.4% 93.7% 0.93× 1.14
Q1 under 33.5 79.5% 76.9% 64.0% 1.20× 1.30
Q1 over 23.5 75.4% 76.9% 85.4% 0.90× 1.30
Q1 under 31.5 70.0% 67.6% 54.0% 1.25× 1.48
Q1 over 25.5 64.9% 61.7% 77.6% 0.80× 1.62
Q1 under 29.5 58.8% 58.6% 43.1% 1.36× 1.71
Q1 over 27.5 53.2% 52.7% 67.7% 0.78× 1.90
Q1 under 28.5 52.9% 52.7% 37.3% 1.41× 1.90
Q1 over 28.5 47.1% 47.3% 62.7% 0.76× 2.11
Q1 under 27.5 46.8% 47.3% 32.3% 1.47× 2.11
Q1 over 29.5 41.2% 41.4% 56.9% 0.73× 2.42
Q1 under 25.5 35.1% 38.3% 22.4% 1.71× 2.61
Q1 over 31.5 30.0% 32.4% 46.0% 0.70× 3.08
Q1 under 23.5 24.6% 23.1% 14.6% 1.58× 4.33
Q1 over 33.5 20.5% 23.1% 36.0% 0.64× 4.33
Q1 under 20.5 12.6% 12.6% 6.3% 1.99× 7.95
Q1 over 36.5 10.2% 12.6% 22.6% 0.56× 7.95
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harvard Crimson to win Q2 58.0% 59.4% 41.5% 1.43× 1.68
Holy Cross Crusaders to win Q2 36.2% 35.7% 52.9% 0.68× 2.80
Q2 tied 5.8% 6.1% 5.7% 1.07× 16.49
Q2 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 under 36.5 90.6% 90.8% 78.7% 1.15× 1.10
Q2 over 20.5 86.4% 87.3% 92.7% 0.94× 1.15
Q2 under 33.5 80.7% 83.0% 65.6% 1.27× 1.21
Q2 over 23.5 73.9% 72.0% 84.6% 0.85× 1.39
Q2 under 31.5 71.5% 72.0% 55.7% 1.29× 1.39
Q2 over 25.5 63.2% 60.7% 76.2% 0.80× 1.65
Q2 under 29.5 60.5% 60.7% 44.2% 1.37× 1.65
Q2 under 28.5 54.6% 52.7% 38.8% 1.36× 1.90
Q2 over 27.5 51.4% 52.7% 66.7% 0.79× 1.90
Q2 under 27.5 48.6% 47.3% 33.3% 1.42× 2.11
Q2 over 28.5 45.4% 47.3% 61.2% 0.77× 2.11
Q2 over 29.5 39.5% 39.3% 55.8% 0.70× 2.55
Q2 under 25.5 36.8% 39.3% 23.8% 1.65× 2.55
Q2 over 31.5 28.5% 28.0% 44.3% 0.63× 3.57
Q2 under 23.5 26.1% 28.0% 15.4% 1.82× 3.57
Q2 over 33.5 19.3% 17.0% 34.4% 0.49× 5.88
Q2 under 20.5 13.6% 12.7% 7.3% 1.74× 7.89
Q2 over 36.5 9.4% 9.2% 21.3% 0.43× 10.84
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harvard Crimson to win Q3 59.0% 56.8% 41.8% 1.36× 1.76
Holy Cross Crusaders to win Q3 35.2% 38.7% 53.3% 0.73× 2.58
Q3 tied 5.7% 5.3% 4.9% 1.07× 18.97
Q3 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 over 22.5 88.3% 87.2% 94.1% 0.93× 1.15
Q3 under 38.5 87.9% 87.2% 73.9% 1.18× 1.15
Q3 over 25.5 77.0% 77.3% 86.9% 0.89× 1.29
Q3 under 35.5 76.9% 77.3% 59.7% 1.30× 1.29
Q3 over 27.5 67.1% 67.8% 80.0% 0.85× 1.48
Q3 under 33.5 67.1% 67.8% 49.1% 1.38× 1.48
Q3 over 29.5 55.9% 58.4% 71.8% 0.81× 1.71
Q3 under 31.5 55.9% 58.4% 38.4% 1.52× 1.71
Q3 under 30.5 50.0% 52.3% 33.2% 1.58× 1.91
Q3 over 30.5 50.0% 47.7% 66.8% 0.71× 2.10
Q3 under 29.5 44.2% 41.6% 28.2% 1.48× 2.40
Q3 over 31.5 44.1% 41.6% 61.6% 0.68× 2.40
Q3 under 27.5 32.9% 32.2% 20.0% 1.61× 3.10
Q3 over 33.5 32.9% 32.2% 50.9% 0.63× 3.10
Q3 under 25.5 23.0% 22.7% 13.1% 1.74× 4.40
Q3 over 35.5 23.1% 22.7% 40.3% 0.56× 4.40
Q3 under 22.5 11.7% 12.8% 5.9% 2.18× 7.83
Q3 over 38.5 12.1% 12.8% 26.1% 0.49× 7.83
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harvard Crimson to win Q4 58.8% 52.1% 41.5% 1.25× 1.92
Holy Cross Crusaders to win Q4 35.5% 42.4% 52.8% 0.80× 2.36
Q4 tied 5.6% 5.8% 5.7% 1.02× 17.25
Q4 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 over 22.5 87.0% 85.6% 93.3% 0.92× 1.17
Q4 under 38.5 86.4% 85.6% 73.1% 1.17× 1.17
Q4 over 25.5 76.0% 76.9% 86.1% 0.89× 1.30
Q4 under 35.5 75.3% 76.9% 59.4% 1.29× 1.30
Q4 over 27.5 66.5% 67.4% 78.9% 0.85× 1.48
Q4 under 33.5 65.8% 67.4% 49.6% 1.36× 1.48
Q4 over 29.5 55.9% 58.4% 70.8% 0.82× 1.71
Q4 under 31.5 55.2% 58.4% 38.9% 1.50× 1.71
Q4 over 30.5 50.3% 52.5% 66.3% 0.79× 1.91
Q4 under 30.5 49.7% 47.5% 33.7% 1.41× 2.11
Q4 over 31.5 44.8% 41.6% 61.1% 0.68× 2.40
Q4 under 29.5 44.1% 41.6% 29.2% 1.43× 2.40
Q4 over 33.5 34.2% 32.6% 50.4% 0.65× 3.07
Q4 under 27.5 33.5% 32.6% 21.1% 1.54× 3.07
Q4 over 35.5 24.7% 23.1% 40.6% 0.57× 4.33
Q4 under 25.5 24.0% 23.1% 13.9% 1.66× 4.33
Q4 over 38.5 13.6% 14.4% 26.9% 0.53× 6.95
Q4 under 22.5 13.0% 14.4% 6.7% 2.13× 6.95
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Holy Cross Crusaders over 44.5 88.5% 83.9% 96.7% 0.87× 1.19
Holy Cross Crusaders under 64.5 87.2% 83.9% 41.6% 2.02× 1.19
Harvard Crimson under 72.5 86.9% 83.9% 78.2% 1.07× 1.19
Harvard Crimson over 52.5 85.8% 83.9% 78.5% 1.07× 1.19
Holy Cross Crusaders over 47.5 78.3% 75.1% 94.4% 0.80× 1.33
Holy Cross Crusaders under 61.5 79.3% 75.1% 33.1% 2.27× 1.33
Harvard Crimson under 69.5 78.7% 75.1% 71.2% 1.05× 1.33
Harvard Crimson over 55.5 77.0% 75.1% 70.8% 1.06× 1.33
Holy Cross Crusaders under 59.5 72.6% 70.7% 27.8% 2.54× 1.41
Harvard Crimson under 67.5 71.8% 70.7% 65.6% 1.08× 1.41
Holy Cross Crusaders over 49.5 70.2% 70.7% 92.1% 0.77× 1.41
Harvard Crimson over 57.5 69.8% 66.4% 65.1% 1.02× 1.51
Holy Cross Crusaders under 57.5 64.9% 61.2% 22.8% 2.68× 1.63
Harvard Crimson under 65.5 64.0% 61.2% 59.8% 1.02× 1.63
Holy Cross Crusaders over 51.5 61.5% 61.2% 89.3% 0.69× 1.63
Harvard Crimson over 59.5 61.7% 61.2% 58.8% 1.04× 1.63
Holy Cross Crusaders under 55.5 56.4% 57.1% 18.5% 3.10× 1.75
Harvard Crimson under 63.5 55.5% 57.1% 53.9% 1.06× 1.75
Holy Cross Crusaders over 53.5 52.5% 52.3% 85.8% 0.61× 1.91
Holy Cross Crusaders under 54.5 52.0% 52.3% 16.2% 3.23× 1.91
Harvard Crimson over 61.5 53.2% 52.3% 52.1% 1.00× 1.91
Harvard Crimson under 62.5 51.2% 52.3% 51.0% 1.03× 1.91
Holy Cross Crusaders under 53.5 47.5% 47.7% 14.2% 3.36× 2.09
Holy Cross Crusaders over 54.5 48.0% 47.7% 83.8% 0.57× 2.09
Harvard Crimson under 61.5 46.8% 47.7% 47.9% 1.00× 2.09
Harvard Crimson over 62.5 48.8% 47.7% 49.0% 0.97× 2.09
Harvard Crimson over 63.5 44.5% 42.9% 46.1% 0.93× 2.33
Holy Cross Crusaders over 55.5 43.6% 42.9% 81.6% 0.53× 2.33
Holy Cross Crusaders under 51.5 38.5% 38.8% 10.7% 3.61× 2.58
Harvard Crimson under 59.5 38.3% 38.8% 41.2% 0.94× 2.58
Holy Cross Crusaders over 57.5 35.1% 38.8% 77.2% 0.50× 2.58
Harvard Crimson over 65.5 36.0% 38.8% 40.2% 0.96× 2.58
Harvard Crimson under 57.5 30.2% 33.6% 34.9% 0.96× 2.98
Holy Cross Crusaders under 49.5 29.8% 29.3% 7.9% 3.71× 3.42
Holy Cross Crusaders over 59.5 27.4% 29.3% 72.2% 0.41× 3.42
Harvard Crimson over 67.5 28.2% 29.3% 34.4% 0.85× 3.42
Harvard Crimson under 55.5 23.0% 24.9% 29.2% 0.85× 4.02
Holy Cross Crusaders under 47.5 21.7% 24.9% 5.6% 4.41× 4.02
Holy Cross Crusaders over 61.5 20.7% 24.9% 66.9% 0.37× 4.02
Harvard Crimson over 69.5 21.3% 24.9% 28.8% 0.86× 4.02
Harvard Crimson under 52.5 14.2% 16.1% 21.5% 0.75× 6.21
Holy Cross Crusaders over 64.5 12.8% 16.1% 58.4% 0.28× 6.21
Harvard Crimson over 72.5 13.1% 16.1% 21.8% 0.74× 6.21
Holy Cross Crusaders under 44.5 11.5% 16.1% 3.3% 4.83× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 137.5 points 92.7% 88.8% 66.2% 1.34× 1.13
Over 97.5 points 92.9% 88.8% 96.9% 0.92× 1.13
Under 132.5 points 86.8% 85.0% 56.0% 1.52× 1.18
Over 102.5 points 85.3% 85.0% 94.3% 0.90× 1.18
Under 127.5 points 78.1% 75.6% 44.9% 1.69× 1.32
Over 107.5 points 74.4% 70.8% 90.2% 0.79× 1.41
Under 124.5 points 71.5% 70.8% 38.5% 1.84× 1.41
Over 110.5 points 66.7% 65.9% 86.4% 0.76× 1.52
Under 122.5 points 66.6% 65.9% 34.4% 1.91× 1.52
Over 112.5 points 61.1% 61.5% 83.6% 0.74× 1.63
Under 120.5 points 61.4% 61.5% 30.2% 2.04× 1.63
Over 114.5 points 55.5% 56.5% 80.4% 0.70× 1.77
Under 118.5 points 55.9% 56.5% 26.4% 2.14× 1.77
Under 117.5 points 53.2% 52.3% 24.7% 2.12× 1.91
Under 116.5 points 50.3% 52.3% 22.8% 2.29× 1.91
Over 116.5 points 49.7% 47.7% 77.2% 0.62× 2.10
Over 117.5 points 46.8% 47.7% 75.3% 0.63× 2.10
Under 114.5 points 44.5% 43.5% 19.6% 2.22× 2.30
Over 118.5 points 44.1% 43.5% 73.6% 0.59× 2.30
Under 112.5 points 38.9% 38.5% 16.4% 2.35× 2.60
Over 120.5 points 38.6% 38.5% 69.8% 0.55× 2.60
Under 110.5 points 33.3% 34.1% 13.6% 2.52× 2.93
Over 122.5 points 33.4% 34.1% 65.6% 0.52× 2.93
Over 124.5 points 28.5% 29.2% 61.5% 0.47× 3.43
Under 107.5 points 25.6% 29.2% 9.8% 2.97× 3.43
Over 127.5 points 21.9% 24.4% 55.1% 0.44× 4.10
Under 102.5 points 14.7% 15.0% 5.7% 2.61× 6.68
Over 132.5 points 13.2% 15.0% 44.0% 0.34× 6.69
Over 137.5 points 7.3% 11.2% 33.8% 0.33× 8.97
Under 97.5 points 7.1% 11.2% 3.1% 3.64× 8.97
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harvard Crimson to win both halves 39.0% 36.3% 20.4% 1.78× 2.75
Holy Cross Crusaders to win both halves 6.9% 8.8% 36.0% 0.25× 11.32
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Harvard Crimson by 6-10 19.1% 16.8% 10.3% 1.63× 5.97
Harvard Crimson by 1-5 17.4% 16.8% 10.2% 1.65× 5.97
Harvard Crimson by 11-15 16.9% 16.8% 7.6% 2.20× 5.97
Holy Cross Crusaders by 1-5 11.8% 12.3% 10.2% 1.21× 8.11
Harvard Crimson by 16-20 12.1% 12.3% 4.8% 2.60× 8.11
Holy Cross Crusaders by 6-10 6.8% 7.5% 12.9% 0.58× 13.40
Harvard Crimson by 21-25 6.8% 7.5% 2.7% 2.79× 13.40
Harvard Crimson by 26+ 4.4% 2.0% 4.6% 0.44× 49.29
Holy Cross Crusaders by 11-15 3.2% 2.0% 10.8% 0.19× 49.30
Holy Cross Crusaders by 16-20 1.2% 2.0% 8.0% 0.25× 49.32
Holy Cross Crusaders by 21-25 0.4% 2.0% 5.4% 0.38× 49.32
Holy Cross Crusaders by 26+ 0.1% 2.0% 12.6% 0.16× 49.33
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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