Houston Rockets v Dallas Mavericks — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 11 October 2026 · NBA · 2027

NBA results-only Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 03:45 UTC

Houston Rockets

10:00 UTC

Dallas Mavericks

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Houston Rockets win

78.5%

Draw

0.0%

Dallas Mavericks win

21.5%

79021

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
nba-normal	79021	119.13–107.95	119-108 0%	49%	0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Houston Rockets to score 100+	95.3%	94.8%	89.3%	1.06×	1.05
Houston Rockets to score 110+	79.6%	77.0%	67.0%	1.15×	1.30
Dallas Mavericks to score 100+	76.2%	76.9%	85.9%	0.90×	1.30
Both sides to score 100+	73.3%	72.3%	77.5%	0.93×	1.38
Houston Rockets to score 120+	49.2%	47.0%	36.5%	1.29×	2.13
Dallas Mavericks to score 110+	44.3%	42.0%	60.9%	0.69×	2.38
Houston Rockets to score 130+	19.2%	17.6%	12.8%	1.37×	5.69
Dallas Mavericks to score 120+	15.9%	17.5%	29.7%	0.59×	5.71
Dallas Mavericks to score 130+	3.2%	0.4%	10.0%	0.04×	282.73

H1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Houston Rockets to win H1	68.0%	68.3%	52.8%	1.29×	1.47
Dallas Mavericks to win H1	29.0%	26.6%	44.1%	0.60×	3.77
H1 tied	3.1%	3.9%	3.1%	1.25×	25.87

H1 total 40

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H1 under 127.5	82.7%	83.2%	84.8%	0.98×	1.20
H1 over 103.5	81.2%	83.2%	80.7%	1.03×	1.20
H1 over 102.5	82.4%	82.5%	83.0%	0.99×	1.21
H1 under 126.5	82.0%	82.5%	82.8%	1.00×	1.21
H1 under 123.5	73.8%	74.0%	76.0%	0.97×	1.35
H1 over 107.5	71.9%	74.0%	70.4%	1.05×	1.35
H1 over 106.5	73.4%	73.5%	73.3%	1.00×	1.36
H1 under 122.5	72.8%	73.5%	74.0%	0.99×	1.36
H1 under 120.5	65.9%	68.1%	68.4%	0.99×	1.47
H1 over 109.5	65.3%	67.4%	65.0%	1.04×	1.48
H1 over 110.5	63.7%	63.3%	61.9%	1.02×	1.58
H1 under 118.5	60.2%	63.3%	62.9%	1.01×	1.58
H1 under 119.5	64.7%	62.7%	65.9%	0.95×	1.59
H1 over 111.5	59.5%	58.2%	59.0%	0.99×	1.72
H1 under 117.5	58.8%	58.2%	59.6%	0.98×	1.72
H1 over 112.5	57.9%	58.1%	55.8%	1.04×	1.72
H1 over 113.5	53.4%	52.6%	52.4%	1.00×	1.90
H1 under 115.5	52.7%	52.6%	53.6%	0.98×	1.90
H1 over 114.5	50.3%	52.6%	49.6%	1.06×	1.90
H1 under 116.5	54.2%	52.5%	56.6%	0.93×	1.90
H1 over 116.5	45.8%	47.5%	43.4%	1.09×	2.11
H1 under 114.5	49.7%	47.4%	50.4%	0.94×	2.11
H1 under 113.5	46.6%	47.4%	47.6%	0.99×	2.11
H1 over 115.5	47.3%	47.4%	46.4%	1.02×	2.11
H1 under 112.5	42.1%	41.9%	44.2%	0.95×	2.39
H1 over 117.5	41.2%	41.8%	40.4%	1.04×	2.39
H1 under 111.5	40.5%	41.8%	41.0%	1.02×	2.39
H1 over 119.5	35.4%	37.3%	34.1%	1.09×	2.68
H1 over 118.5	39.8%	36.7%	37.1%	0.99×	2.72
H1 under 110.5	36.3%	36.7%	38.1%	0.96×	2.72
H1 under 109.5	34.7%	32.6%	35.0%	0.93×	3.07
H1 over 120.5	34.1%	31.9%	31.6%	1.01×	3.13
H1 over 122.5	27.2%	26.5%	26.0%	1.02×	3.77
H1 under 106.5	26.6%	26.5%	26.7%	0.99×	3.77
H1 under 107.5	28.1%	26.1%	29.6%	0.88×	3.84
H1 over 123.5	26.2%	26.0%	24.0%	1.08×	3.84
H1 over 126.5	18.0%	17.5%	17.2%	1.02×	5.73
H1 under 102.5	17.6%	17.5%	17.0%	1.03×	5.73
H1 under 103.5	18.8%	16.8%	19.3%	0.87×	5.96
H1 over 127.5	17.3%	16.8%	15.2%	1.11×	5.96

H2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Houston Rockets to win H2	67.7%	62.8%	51.6%	1.22×	1.59
Dallas Mavericks to win H2	29.1%	31.3%	44.7%	0.70×	3.20
H2 tied	3.1%	3.9%	3.7%	1.06×	25.36

H2 total 40

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H2 over 100.5	82.4%	81.8%	82.4%	0.99×	1.22
H2 under 124.5	82.5%	81.8%	79.1%	1.03×	1.22
H2 under 125.5	83.2%	81.5%	81.3%	1.00×	1.23
H2 over 101.5	81.1%	81.5%	80.3%	1.02×	1.23
H2 under 121.5	74.4%	72.5%	72.0%	1.01×	1.38
H2 over 105.5	71.7%	72.5%	71.3%	1.02×	1.38
H2 over 104.5	73.2%	72.2%	73.9%	0.98×	1.39
H2 under 120.5	73.3%	72.2%	69.3%	1.04×	1.39
H2 over 107.5	65.0%	66.4%	66.2%	1.00×	1.51
H2 under 117.5	65.2%	66.4%	61.1%	1.09×	1.51
H2 under 118.5	66.4%	64.4%	63.6%	1.01×	1.55
H2 over 108.5	63.4%	62.6%	63.8%	0.98×	1.60
H2 under 116.5	60.7%	62.6%	58.1%	1.08×	1.60
H2 over 110.5	57.5%	58.0%	58.1%	1.00×	1.72
H2 over 109.5	59.1%	57.3%	60.9%	0.94×	1.74
H2 under 115.5	59.3%	57.3%	55.4%	1.03×	1.74
H2 over 111.5	53.0%	52.4%	55.3%	0.95×	1.91
H2 under 113.5	53.2%	52.4%	50.1%	1.05×	1.91
H2 under 112.5	50.1%	52.4%	47.4%	1.10×	1.91
H2 under 114.5	54.7%	52.1%	52.5%	0.99×	1.92
H2 over 114.5	45.3%	47.9%	47.5%	1.01×	2.09
H2 over 112.5	49.9%	47.6%	52.6%	0.91×	2.10
H2 under 111.5	47.0%	47.6%	44.7%	1.07×	2.10
H2 over 113.5	46.8%	47.6%	49.9%	0.95×	2.10
H2 under 109.5	40.9%	42.7%	39.1%	1.09×	2.35
H2 over 115.5	40.7%	42.7%	44.6%	0.96×	2.35
H2 under 110.5	42.5%	42.0%	41.9%	1.00×	2.38
H2 over 116.5	39.3%	37.4%	41.9%	0.89×	2.67
H2 under 108.5	36.6%	37.4%	36.2%	1.03×	2.67
H2 over 118.5	33.6%	35.6%	36.4%	0.98×	2.81
H2 under 107.5	35.0%	33.6%	33.8%	1.00×	2.97
H2 over 117.5	34.8%	33.6%	38.9%	0.86×	2.97
H2 under 104.5	26.8%	27.8%	26.1%	1.07×	3.59
H2 over 120.5	26.7%	27.8%	30.7%	0.91×	3.59
H2 under 105.5	28.3%	27.5%	28.7%	0.96×	3.63
H2 over 121.5	25.6%	27.5%	28.0%	0.98×	3.64
H2 under 101.5	18.9%	18.5%	19.7%	0.94×	5.41
H2 over 125.5	16.8%	18.5%	18.7%	0.99×	5.41
H2 under 100.5	17.6%	18.2%	17.6%	1.03×	5.50
H2 over 124.5	17.5%	18.2%	20.9%	0.87×	5.50

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Houston Rockets leading at half time	68.0%	68.4%	52.8%	1.30×	1.46
Dallas Mavericks leading at half time	29.0%	26.5%	44.1%	0.60×	3.77
Level at half time	3.1%	3.8%	3.1%	1.22×	26.42

Handicap 60

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Houston Rockets +14.5	96.1%	97.4%	87.0%	1.12×	1.03
Houston Rockets +16.5	97.1%	97.4%	89.7%	1.09×	1.03
Houston Rockets +18.5	97.9%	97.4%	91.5%	1.06×	1.03
Houston Rockets +20.5	98.5%	97.4%	93.1%	1.05×	1.03
Houston Rockets +12.5	94.8%	91.1%	83.9%	1.09×	1.10
Houston Rockets +9.5	92.2%	91.1%	78.1%	1.17×	1.10
Houston Rockets +10.5	93.1%	91.1%	80.3%	1.14×	1.10
Houston Rockets +8.5	91.1%	91.1%	75.7%	1.20×	1.10
Houston Rockets +6.5	88.6%	85.9%	70.6%	1.22×	1.16
Houston Rockets +7.5	89.9%	85.9%	73.0%	1.18×	1.16
Houston Rockets +5.5	87.2%	85.9%	68.0%	1.26×	1.16
Houston Rockets +4.5	85.7%	85.9%	65.7%	1.31×	1.16
Houston Rockets +3.5	84.1%	81.1%	63.1%	1.29×	1.23
Houston Rockets +2.5	82.4%	81.1%	60.5%	1.34×	1.23
Houston Rockets +1.5	80.5%	81.1%	57.9%	1.40×	1.23
Houston Rockets −1.5	76.3%	76.5%	53.7%	1.42×	1.31
Houston Rockets −2.5	74.0%	71.6%	50.9%	1.41×	1.40
Dallas Mavericks +20.5	73.4%	71.6%	89.1%	0.80×	1.40
Houston Rockets −3.5	71.7%	71.6%	48.4%	1.48×	1.40
Houston Rockets −4.5	69.2%	66.7%	46.0%	1.45×	1.50
Dallas Mavericks +18.5	68.7%	66.7%	86.4%	0.77×	1.50
Houston Rockets −5.5	66.6%	66.7%	42.9%	1.56×	1.50
Houston Rockets −6.5	64.0%	61.9%	40.0%	1.55×	1.62
Dallas Mavericks +16.5	63.6%	61.9%	83.5%	0.74×	1.62
Houston Rockets −7.5	61.3%	61.9%	37.0%	1.67×	1.62
Houston Rockets −8.5	58.5%	57.1%	34.1%	1.67×	1.75
Dallas Mavericks +14.5	58.2%	57.1%	80.1%	0.71×	1.75
Houston Rockets −9.5	55.8%	57.1%	31.3%	1.83×	1.75
Houston Rockets −10.5	53.0%	52.4%	29.0%	1.81×	1.91
Dallas Mavericks +12.5	52.7%	52.4%	76.0%	0.69×	1.91
Dallas Mavericks +10.5	47.0%	47.6%	71.0%	0.67×	2.10
Houston Rockets −12.5	47.3%	47.6%	24.0%	1.98×	2.10
Dallas Mavericks +9.5	44.2%	42.9%	68.7%	0.62×	2.33
Dallas Mavericks +8.5	41.5%	42.9%	65.9%	0.65×	2.33
Houston Rockets −14.5	41.8%	42.9%	19.9%	2.16×	2.33
Dallas Mavericks +7.5	38.7%	38.1%	63.0%	0.60×	2.63
Houston Rockets −16.5	36.4%	38.1%	16.5%	2.31×	2.63
Dallas Mavericks +6.5	36.0%	38.1%	60.0%	0.63×	2.63
Dallas Mavericks +5.5	33.4%	33.3%	57.1%	0.58×	3.01
Dallas Mavericks +4.5	30.8%	33.3%	54.1%	0.62×	3.01
Houston Rockets −18.5	31.3%	33.3%	13.6%	2.44×	3.01
Dallas Mavericks +3.5	28.4%	28.4%	51.6%	0.55×	3.53
Houston Rockets −20.5	26.6%	28.4%	10.9%	2.61×	3.53
Dallas Mavericks +2.5	26.0%	28.4%	49.1%	0.58×	3.53
Dallas Mavericks +1.5	23.7%	23.5%	46.3%	0.51×	4.25
Dallas Mavericks −1.5	19.5%	18.9%	42.1%	0.45×	5.29
Dallas Mavericks −2.5	17.6%	18.9%	39.5%	0.48×	5.29
Dallas Mavericks −3.5	15.9%	18.9%	36.9%	0.51×	5.30
Dallas Mavericks −4.5	14.3%	14.1%	34.3%	0.41×	7.09
Dallas Mavericks −5.5	12.8%	14.1%	32.0%	0.44×	7.09
Dallas Mavericks −6.5	11.4%	14.1%	29.4%	0.48×	7.09
Dallas Mavericks −7.5	10.1%	14.1%	27.0%	0.52×	7.09
Dallas Mavericks −8.5	8.9%	8.9%	24.3%	0.37×	11.25
Dallas Mavericks −9.5	7.8%	8.9%	21.9%	0.41×	11.25
Dallas Mavericks −10.5	6.9%	8.9%	19.7%	0.45×	11.25
Dallas Mavericks −12.5	5.2%	8.9%	16.1%	0.55×	11.25
Dallas Mavericks −14.5	3.9%	2.6%	13.0%	0.20×	38.72
Dallas Mavericks −16.5	2.9%	2.6%	10.3%	0.25×	38.73
Dallas Mavericks −18.5	2.1%	2.6%	8.5%	0.30×	38.73
Dallas Mavericks −20.5	1.5%	2.6%	6.9%	0.37×	38.73

Highest scoring half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	56.6%	52.6%	53.5%	0.98×	1.90
2nd half highest scoring	43.4%	47.4%	46.5%	1.02×	2.11

Highest scoring quarter 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 highest scoring	28.2%	27.4%	29.2%	0.94×	3.65
Q3 highest scoring	27.9%	27.4%	27.5%	1.00×	3.65
Q2 highest scoring	26.6%	27.4%	26.3%	1.04×	3.65
Q4 highest scoring	17.3%	18.3%	17.0%	1.08×	5.46

HT/FT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Houston Rockets at HT / Houston Rockets at FT	61.5%	62.3%	40.8%	1.53×	1.61
Dallas Mavericks at HT / Houston Rockets at FT	14.8%	12.2%	13.3%	0.92×	8.17
Dallas Mavericks at HT / Dallas Mavericks at FT	14.2%	12.2%	30.9%	0.40×	8.17
Houston Rockets at HT / Dallas Mavericks at FT	6.5%	8.3%	12.0%	0.69×	12.09
Level at HT / Houston Rockets at FT	2.2%	2.1%	1.7%	1.22×	47.75
Level at HT / Dallas Mavericks at FT	0.8%	2.1%	1.4%	1.49×	47.78

Moneyline 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Houston Rockets to win	78.5%	75.1%	55.7%	1.35×	1.33
Dallas Mavericks to win	21.5%	24.9%	44.3%	0.56×	4.02

Odd/Even 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Houston Rockets even	50.0%	50.5%	49.7%	1.02×	1.98
Dallas Mavericks even	50.0%	50.5%	50.3%	1.00×	1.98
Total points odd	51.0%	50.5%	51.0%	0.99×	1.98
Houston Rockets odd	50.0%	49.5%	50.3%	0.98×	2.02
Dallas Mavericks odd	50.0%	49.5%	49.7%	1.00×	2.02
Total points even	49.0%	49.5%	49.0%	1.01×	2.02

Overtime 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No overtime	94.8%	94.0%	94.8%	0.99×	1.06
Match to go to overtime	5.2%	6.0%	5.2%	1.16×	16.66

Q1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Houston Rockets to win Q1	61.3%	64.9%	51.3%	1.26×	1.54
Dallas Mavericks to win Q1	34.2%	30.4%	44.1%	0.69×	3.29
Q1 tied	4.5%	4.2%	4.6%	0.90×	23.95

Q1 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 under 65.5	82.8%	82.8%	83.2%	1.00×	1.21
Q1 over 49.5	82.5%	82.8%	82.7%	1.00×	1.21
Q1 under 62.5	72.4%	72.7%	72.9%	1.00×	1.38
Q1 over 52.5	72.0%	72.7%	72.4%	1.00×	1.38
Q1 under 60.5	64.0%	61.7%	64.5%	0.96×	1.62
Q1 over 54.5	63.6%	61.7%	63.3%	0.98×	1.62
Q1 under 58.5	54.9%	52.7%	55.7%	0.95×	1.90
Q1 over 56.5	54.5%	52.7%	54.6%	0.96×	1.90
Q1 under 57.5	50.2%	52.7%	50.4%	1.04×	1.90
Q1 over 57.5	49.8%	47.3%	49.6%	0.96×	2.11
Q1 under 56.5	45.5%	47.3%	45.4%	1.04×	2.11
Q1 over 58.5	45.1%	47.3%	44.3%	1.07×	2.11
Q1 under 54.5	36.4%	38.3%	36.7%	1.04×	2.61
Q1 over 60.5	36.0%	38.3%	35.5%	1.08×	2.61
Q1 under 52.5	28.0%	27.3%	27.6%	0.99×	3.66
Q1 over 62.5	27.6%	27.3%	27.1%	1.01×	3.66
Q1 under 49.5	17.5%	17.2%	17.3%	0.99×	5.83
Q1 over 65.5	17.2%	17.2%	16.8%	1.02×	5.83

Q2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Houston Rockets to win Q2	61.2%	61.9%	49.3%	1.25×	1.62
Dallas Mavericks to win Q2	34.3%	31.8%	46.2%	0.69×	3.14
Q2 tied	4.5%	4.4%	4.5%	0.98×	22.89

Q2 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q2 under 65.5	83.5%	83.0%	83.6%	0.99×	1.21
Q2 over 49.5	81.5%	83.0%	81.8%	1.02×	1.21
Q2 under 62.5	73.4%	72.0%	74.4%	0.97×	1.39
Q2 over 52.5	70.7%	72.0%	70.3%	1.02×	1.39
Q2 under 60.5	65.2%	67.4%	65.7%	1.02×	1.49
Q2 over 54.5	62.2%	60.7%	61.1%	0.99×	1.65
Q2 under 58.5	56.2%	58.2%	57.3%	1.01×	1.72
Q2 over 56.5	53.1%	52.7%	51.7%	1.02×	1.90
Q2 under 57.5	51.6%	52.7%	52.7%	1.00×	1.90
Q2 over 57.5	48.4%	47.3%	47.3%	1.00×	2.11
Q2 under 56.5	46.9%	47.3%	48.3%	0.98×	2.11
Q2 over 58.5	43.8%	41.8%	42.7%	0.98×	2.39
Q2 under 54.5	37.8%	39.3%	38.9%	1.01×	2.55
Q2 over 60.5	34.8%	32.6%	34.3%	0.95×	3.06
Q2 under 52.5	29.3%	28.0%	29.7%	0.94×	3.57
Q2 over 62.5	26.6%	28.0%	25.6%	1.09×	3.57
Q2 under 49.5	18.5%	17.0%	18.2%	0.93×	5.88
Q2 over 65.5	16.5%	17.0%	16.4%	1.04×	5.88

Q3 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Houston Rockets to win Q3	61.2%	60.8%	50.9%	1.20×	1.64
Dallas Mavericks to win Q3	34.3%	33.8%	44.3%	0.76×	2.96
Q3 tied	4.5%	4.3%	4.9%	0.88×	23.43

Q3 total 32

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q3 over 49.5	83.3%	82.3%	82.7%	1.00×	1.22
Q3 under 65.5	82.6%	82.3%	82.2%	1.00×	1.22
Q3 under 66.5	84.6%	82.2%	84.7%	0.97×	1.22
Q3 over 50.5	80.8%	82.2%	79.7%	1.03×	1.22
Q3 under 63.5	74.7%	72.5%	75.9%	0.95×	1.38
Q3 over 52.5	72.8%	71.8%	72.2%	0.99×	1.39
Q3 under 62.5	71.9%	71.8%	71.9%	1.00×	1.39
Q3 over 53.5	69.7%	66.9%	68.3%	0.98×	1.50
Q3 under 61.5	66.6%	66.8%	67.7%	0.99×	1.50
Q3 over 55.5	61.0%	62.6%	59.9%	1.05×	1.60
Q3 over 54.5	64.4%	62.0%	63.9%	0.97×	1.61
Q3 under 60.5	63.4%	62.0%	63.5%	0.98×	1.61
Q3 over 56.5	55.3%	58.4%	55.0%	1.06×	1.71
Q3 under 59.5	57.7%	57.9%	59.0%	0.98×	1.73
Q3 under 58.5	54.2%	52.3%	54.8%	0.95×	1.91
Q3 over 57.5	50.5%	52.3%	50.2%	1.04×	1.91
Q3 under 57.5	49.5%	47.7%	49.8%	0.96×	2.10
Q3 over 58.5	45.8%	47.7%	45.2%	1.06×	2.10
Q3 over 59.5	42.3%	42.1%	41.0%	1.03×	2.37
Q3 under 56.5	44.7%	41.6%	45.0%	0.93×	2.40
Q3 over 60.5	36.6%	38.0%	36.5%	1.04×	2.63
Q3 under 54.5	35.6%	38.0%	36.1%	1.05×	2.63
Q3 under 55.5	39.0%	37.4%	40.1%	0.93×	2.67
Q3 over 61.5	33.4%	33.2%	32.3%	1.03×	3.02
Q3 under 53.5	30.3%	33.1%	31.7%	1.05×	3.02
Q3 over 62.5	28.1%	28.2%	28.1%	1.00×	3.55
Q3 under 52.5	27.2%	28.2%	27.8%	1.02×	3.55
Q3 over 63.5	25.3%	27.5%	24.1%	1.14×	3.64
Q3 under 50.5	19.2%	17.8%	20.3%	0.88×	5.62
Q3 over 66.5	15.4%	17.8%	15.3%	1.16×	5.63
Q3 over 65.5	17.4%	17.7%	17.8%	0.99×	5.66
Q3 under 49.5	16.7%	17.7%	17.3%	1.02×	5.66

Q4 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Houston Rockets to win Q4	60.9%	57.8%	48.3%	1.20×	1.73
Dallas Mavericks to win Q4	34.4%	37.4%	46.4%	0.81×	2.67
Q4 tied	4.6%	5.2%	5.3%	0.98×	19.29

Q4 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q4 under 63.5	84.0%	82.0%	83.7%	0.98×	1.22
Q4 over 47.5	80.2%	82.0%	79.0%	1.04×	1.22
Q4 under 60.5	74.2%	71.5%	74.2%	0.96×	1.40
Q4 over 50.5	69.3%	67.4%	68.5%	0.98×	1.48
Q4 under 58.5	66.2%	67.4%	66.2%	1.02×	1.48
Q4 over 52.5	60.7%	61.4%	60.4%	1.02×	1.63
Q4 under 56.5	57.5%	58.4%	57.2%	1.02×	1.71
Q4 under 55.5	52.9%	52.5%	52.9%	0.99×	1.91
Q4 over 54.5	51.7%	52.5%	51.4%	1.02×	1.91
Q4 under 54.5	48.3%	47.5%	48.6%	0.98×	2.11
Q4 over 55.5	47.1%	47.5%	47.1%	1.01×	2.11
Q4 over 56.5	42.5%	41.6%	42.8%	0.97×	2.40
Q4 under 52.5	39.3%	38.6%	39.6%	0.97×	2.59
Q4 over 58.5	33.8%	32.6%	33.8%	0.96×	3.07
Q4 under 50.5	30.7%	32.6%	31.5%	1.04×	3.07
Q4 over 60.5	25.8%	28.5%	25.8%	1.11×	3.51
Q4 under 47.5	19.8%	18.0%	21.0%	0.86×	5.56
Q4 over 63.5	16.0%	18.0%	16.3%	1.11×	5.56

Team total 70

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Dallas Mavericks under 118.5	82.0%	80.7%	67.4%	1.20×	1.24
Houston Rockets under 129.5	80.8%	80.7%	87.2%	0.93×	1.24
Houston Rockets under 128.5	81.3%	80.3%	85.5%	0.94×	1.25
Dallas Mavericks under 120.5	80.1%	80.3%	72.7%	1.10×	1.25
Dallas Mavericks over 100.5	79.2%	78.3%	84.1%	0.93×	1.28
Houston Rockets over 108.5	77.9%	78.3%	69.9%	1.12×	1.28
Houston Rockets over 109.5	79.6%	75.1%	67.0%	1.12×	1.33
Dallas Mavericks over 98.5	78.8%	75.1%	87.6%	0.86×	1.33
Houston Rockets under 125.5	73.9%	71.9%	79.1%	0.91×	1.39
Dallas Mavericks under 117.5	72.5%	71.9%	64.4%	1.12×	1.39
Dallas Mavericks under 115.5	74.5%	70.7%	58.6%	1.21×	1.41
Houston Rockets over 112.5	71.7%	70.7%	57.7%	1.23×	1.41
Houston Rockets under 126.5	73.0%	70.7%	81.5%	0.87×	1.41
Dallas Mavericks over 101.5	70.6%	70.7%	82.0%	0.86×	1.41
Houston Rockets over 111.5	69.8%	66.6%	61.1%	1.09×	1.50
Houston Rockets under 123.5	68.2%	66.6%	74.4%	0.90×	1.50
Dallas Mavericks under 113.5	68.7%	66.4%	52.0%	1.28×	1.51
Houston Rockets under 124.5	67.1%	66.4%	76.8%	0.86×	1.51
Houston Rockets over 114.5	65.7%	66.4%	51.4%	1.29×	1.51
Dallas Mavericks over 103.5	64.4%	61.2%	77.5%	0.79×	1.63
Dallas Mavericks under 111.5	62.4%	61.2%	45.4%	1.35×	1.63
Houston Rockets under 122.5	60.8%	61.2%	71.8%	0.85×	1.63
Houston Rockets over 113.5	63.9%	61.2%	54.3%	1.13×	1.63
Houston Rockets under 121.5	62.1%	61.2%	69.6%	0.88×	1.64
Houston Rockets over 115.5	57.5%	57.9%	48.4%	1.20×	1.73
Houston Rockets over 116.5	59.3%	57.1%	45.3%	1.26×	1.75
Dallas Mavericks over 105.5	57.9%	57.1%	71.9%	0.79×	1.75
Dallas Mavericks under 109.5	55.7%	57.1%	39.1%	1.46×	1.75
Houston Rockets under 120.5	54.1%	52.3%	66.3%	0.79×	1.91
Houston Rockets over 118.5	52.6%	52.3%	39.7%	1.32×	1.91
Dallas Mavericks under 108.5	52.3%	52.3%	36.0%	1.45×	1.91
Dallas Mavericks over 107.5	51.1%	52.3%	66.6%	0.78×	1.91
Houston Rockets under 119.5	50.8%	52.3%	63.5%	0.82×	1.91
Houston Rockets over 117.5	51.0%	52.2%	42.2%	1.24×	1.91
Dallas Mavericks under 110.5	50.7%	52.2%	42.1%	1.24×	1.91
Dallas Mavericks over 110.5	49.3%	47.8%	57.9%	0.83×	2.09
Houston Rockets under 117.5	49.0%	47.8%	57.8%	0.83×	2.09
Houston Rockets over 119.5	49.2%	47.7%	36.5%	1.31×	2.09
Houston Rockets under 118.5	47.4%	47.7%	60.3%	0.79×	2.09
Dallas Mavericks over 108.5	47.7%	47.7%	64.0%	0.75×	2.09
Dallas Mavericks under 107.5	48.9%	47.7%	33.4%	1.43×	2.09
Houston Rockets over 120.5	45.9%	47.7%	33.7%	1.42×	2.09
Dallas Mavericks over 109.5	44.3%	42.9%	60.9%	0.70×	2.33
Dallas Mavericks under 105.5	42.1%	42.9%	28.1%	1.53×	2.33
Houston Rockets under 116.5	40.7%	42.9%	54.7%	0.78×	2.33
Houston Rockets under 115.5	42.5%	42.1%	51.6%	0.82×	2.38
Houston Rockets over 121.5	37.9%	38.8%	30.4%	1.28×	2.58
Houston Rockets under 113.5	36.1%	38.8%	45.7%	0.85×	2.58
Houston Rockets over 122.5	39.2%	38.8%	28.2%	1.38×	2.58
Dallas Mavericks over 111.5	37.6%	38.8%	54.6%	0.71×	2.58
Dallas Mavericks under 103.5	35.6%	38.8%	22.5%	1.72×	2.58
Houston Rockets under 114.5	34.3%	33.6%	48.6%	0.69×	2.98
Houston Rockets over 124.5	32.9%	33.6%	23.2%	1.45×	2.98
Dallas Mavericks over 113.5	31.3%	33.6%	48.0%	0.70×	2.98
Houston Rockets over 123.5	31.8%	33.4%	25.6%	1.31×	3.00
Houston Rockets under 111.5	30.2%	33.4%	38.9%	0.86×	3.00
Dallas Mavericks under 101.5	29.4%	29.3%	18.0%	1.62×	3.42
Houston Rockets under 112.5	28.3%	29.3%	42.3%	0.69×	3.42
Houston Rockets over 126.5	27.0%	29.3%	18.5%	1.59×	3.42
Dallas Mavericks over 115.5	25.5%	29.3%	41.4%	0.71×	3.42
Dallas Mavericks over 117.5	27.5%	28.2%	35.6%	0.79×	3.55
Houston Rockets over 125.5	26.1%	28.1%	20.9%	1.34×	3.55
Dallas Mavericks under 98.5	21.2%	24.9%	12.4%	2.01×	4.02
Houston Rockets under 109.5	20.4%	24.9%	33.0%	0.75×	4.02
Houston Rockets under 108.5	22.1%	21.7%	30.1%	0.72×	4.60
Dallas Mavericks under 100.5	20.8%	21.7%	15.9%	1.37×	4.60
Dallas Mavericks over 120.5	19.9%	19.7%	27.3%	0.72×	5.07
Houston Rockets over 128.5	18.7%	19.7%	14.5%	1.36×	5.07
Houston Rockets over 129.5	19.2%	19.3%	12.8%	1.50×	5.18
Dallas Mavericks over 118.5	18.0%	19.3%	32.6%	0.59×	5.18

Total points 56

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 248.5 points	86.1%	85.5%	84.4%	1.01×	1.17
Over 208.5 points	85.2%	85.5%	84.1%	1.02×	1.17
Under 247.5 points	86.7%	85.0%	83.3%	1.02×	1.18
Over 207.5 points	85.6%	85.0%	85.5%	0.99×	1.18
Under 243.5 points	79.4%	78.1%	78.2%	1.00×	1.28
Over 213.5 points	78.1%	78.1%	76.4%	1.02×	1.28
Under 242.5 points	79.9%	75.6%	76.8%	0.98×	1.32
Over 212.5 points	78.6%	75.6%	77.8%	0.97×	1.32
Under 238.5 points	71.0%	71.0%	70.9%	1.00×	1.41
Under 237.5 points	71.4%	70.8%	69.3%	1.02×	1.41
Over 218.5 points	69.5%	66.6%	67.8%	0.98×	1.50
Under 235.5 points	65.4%	66.6%	65.3%	1.02×	1.50
Over 217.5 points	69.9%	65.9%	69.6%	0.95×	1.52
Under 234.5 points	65.6%	65.9%	63.3%	1.04×	1.52
Over 221.5 points	63.7%	61.8%	62.2%	0.99×	1.62
Under 233.5 points	61.4%	61.7%	61.4%	1.01×	1.62
Over 220.5 points	64.0%	61.5%	64.2%	0.96×	1.63
Under 232.5 points	61.5%	61.5%	59.4%	1.04×	1.63
Over 222.5 points	59.9%	56.5%	60.4%	0.94×	1.77
Under 230.5 points	57.3%	56.5%	55.4%	1.02×	1.77
Over 224.5 points	55.6%	56.5%	56.5%	1.00×	1.77
Over 223.5 points	59.6%	56.0%	58.3%	0.96×	1.79
Under 231.5 points	57.2%	56.0%	57.4%	0.98×	1.79
Over 225.5 points	55.5%	56.0%	54.7%	1.02×	1.79
Under 228.5 points	53.0%	52.3%	51.3%	1.02×	1.91
Under 227.5 points	50.9%	52.3%	49.4%	1.06×	1.91
Over 226.5 points	51.3%	52.3%	52.7%	0.99×	1.91
Under 229.5 points	53.0%	52.2%	53.3%	0.98×	1.92
Over 229.5 points	47.0%	47.8%	46.7%	1.02×	2.09
Over 227.5 points	49.1%	47.7%	50.6%	0.94×	2.10
Under 226.5 points	48.7%	47.7%	47.3%	1.01×	2.10
Over 228.5 points	47.0%	47.7%	48.7%	0.98×	2.10
Under 225.5 points	44.5%	44.0%	45.3%	0.97×	2.27
Over 231.5 points	42.8%	44.0%	42.6%	1.03×	2.27
Under 223.5 points	40.4%	44.0%	41.7%	1.05×	2.27
Under 224.5 points	44.4%	43.5%	43.5%	1.00×	2.30
Over 230.5 points	42.7%	43.5%	44.6%	0.97×	2.30
Under 222.5 points	40.1%	43.5%	39.6%	1.10×	2.30
Over 232.5 points	38.5%	38.5%	40.6%	0.95×	2.60
Under 220.5 points	36.0%	38.5%	35.8%	1.08×	2.60
Over 233.5 points	38.6%	38.3%	38.6%	0.99×	2.61
Under 221.5 points	36.3%	38.2%	37.8%	1.01×	2.61
Over 234.5 points	34.4%	34.1%	36.7%	0.93×	2.93
Under 217.5 points	30.1%	34.1%	30.4%	1.12×	2.93
Over 235.5 points	34.6%	33.4%	34.7%	0.96×	2.99
Under 218.5 points	30.5%	33.4%	32.2%	1.04×	3.00
Over 237.5 points	28.6%	29.2%	30.7%	0.95×	3.43
Over 238.5 points	29.0%	29.0%	29.1%	0.99×	3.45
Under 212.5 points	21.4%	24.4%	22.2%	1.10×	4.10
Over 242.5 points	20.1%	24.4%	23.2%	1.05×	4.10
Under 213.5 points	21.9%	21.9%	23.6%	0.93×	4.57
Over 243.5 points	20.6%	21.9%	21.8%	1.00×	4.57
Under 207.5 points	14.4%	15.0%	14.5%	1.03×	6.68
Over 247.5 points	13.4%	15.0%	16.7%	0.90×	6.69
Under 208.5 points	14.8%	14.5%	15.9%	0.91×	6.88
Over 248.5 points	13.9%	14.5%	15.6%	0.93×	6.88

Win both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Houston Rockets to win both halves	44.2%	40.7%	25.2%	1.61×	2.46
Dallas Mavericks to win both halves	6.8%	8.8%	17.8%	0.49×	11.32

Winning margin 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Houston Rockets by 26+	16.5%	16.8%	6.2%	2.71×	5.97
Houston Rockets by 6-10	13.6%	12.3%	13.9%	0.88×	8.11
Houston Rockets by 11-15	13.9%	12.3%	10.8%	1.14×	8.11
Houston Rockets by 1-5	11.9%	12.3%	12.8%	0.96×	8.11
Houston Rockets by 16-20	12.5%	12.3%	7.3%	1.68×	8.11
Houston Rockets by 21-25	10.1%	12.3%	4.7%	2.62×	8.11
Dallas Mavericks by 1-5	8.7%	7.5%	12.3%	0.61×	13.40
Dallas Mavericks by 6-10	5.9%	7.5%	12.3%	0.61×	13.40
Dallas Mavericks by 11-15	3.5%	2.0%	8.0%	0.25×	49.30
Dallas Mavericks by 16-20	1.9%	2.0%	4.9%	0.42×	49.31
Dallas Mavericks by 21-25	0.9%	2.0%	3.0%	0.67×	49.32
Dallas Mavericks by 26+	0.6%	2.0%	3.9%	0.53×	49.32

Houston Rockets v Dallas Mavericks — Prediction, Odds & Stats

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