Houston Rockets v Golden State Warriors — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Thursday 12 November 2026 · NBA · 2027
NBA results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Houston Rockets win
69.0%
Draw
0.0%
Golden State Warriors win
31.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nba-normal | 114.16–107.16 | 114-107 0% | 50% | 0% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
Century marks 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Rockets to score 100+ | 89.4% | 85.0% | 89.3% | 0.95× | 1.18 |
| Golden State Warriors to score 100+ | 74.1% | 72.4% | 85.9% | 0.84× | 1.38 |
| Both sides to score 100+ | 67.5% | 63.8% | 77.5% | 0.82× | 1.57 |
| Houston Rockets to score 110+ | 65.7% | 63.8% | 67.0% | 0.95× | 1.57 |
| Golden State Warriors to score 110+ | 41.7% | 41.9% | 60.9% | 0.69× | 2.39 |
| Houston Rockets to score 120+ | 32.9% | 31.4% | 36.5% | 0.86× | 3.19 |
| Golden State Warriors to score 120+ | 14.4% | 13.9% | 29.7% | 0.47× | 7.22 |
| Houston Rockets to score 130+ | 9.8% | 8.8% | 12.8% | 0.69× | 11.34 |
| Golden State Warriors to score 130+ | 2.8% | 0.4% | 10.0% | 0.04× | 282.81 |
H1 result 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Rockets to win H1 | 60.9% | 62.2% | 52.8% | 1.18× | 1.61 |
| Golden State Warriors to win H1 | 35.8% | 37.8% | 44.1% | 0.86× | 2.64 |
| H1 tied | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.25× | 25.86 |
H1 total 22
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 over 99.5 | 82.6% | 82.5% | 88.5% | 0.93× | 1.21 |
| H1 under 123.5 | 81.8% | 82.5% | 76.0% | 1.09× | 1.21 |
| H1 over 103.5 | 73.6% | 73.5% | 80.7% | 0.91× | 1.36 |
| H1 under 119.5 | 72.6% | 73.5% | 65.9% | 1.11× | 1.36 |
| H1 over 106.5 | 65.5% | 67.4% | 73.3% | 0.92× | 1.48 |
| H1 under 116.5 | 64.4% | 62.7% | 56.6% | 1.11× | 1.59 |
| H1 over 108.5 | 59.7% | 58.2% | 67.7% | 0.86× | 1.72 |
| H1 under 114.5 | 58.5% | 58.2% | 50.4% | 1.16× | 1.72 |
| H1 over 110.5 | 53.7% | 52.6% | 61.9% | 0.85× | 1.90 |
| H1 under 112.5 | 52.4% | 52.6% | 44.2% | 1.19× | 1.90 |
| H1 over 111.5 | 50.6% | 52.6% | 59.0% | 0.89× | 1.90 |
| H1 under 111.5 | 49.4% | 47.4% | 41.0% | 1.15× | 2.11 |
| H1 over 112.5 | 47.6% | 47.4% | 55.8% | 0.85× | 2.11 |
| H1 under 110.5 | 46.3% | 47.4% | 38.1% | 1.24× | 2.11 |
| H1 over 114.5 | 41.5% | 41.8% | 49.6% | 0.84× | 2.39 |
| H1 under 108.5 | 40.3% | 41.8% | 32.3% | 1.29× | 2.39 |
| H1 over 116.5 | 35.6% | 37.3% | 43.4% | 0.86× | 2.68 |
| H1 under 106.5 | 34.5% | 32.6% | 26.7% | 1.22× | 3.07 |
| H1 over 119.5 | 27.4% | 26.5% | 34.1% | 0.78× | 3.77 |
| H1 under 103.5 | 26.4% | 26.5% | 19.3% | 1.37× | 3.77 |
| H1 over 123.5 | 18.2% | 17.5% | 24.0% | 0.73× | 5.72 |
| H1 under 99.5 | 17.4% | 17.5% | 11.5% | 1.52× | 5.73 |
H2 result 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Rockets to win H2 | 60.8% | 58.8% | 51.6% | 1.14× | 1.70 |
| Golden State Warriors to win H2 | 35.9% | 41.2% | 44.7% | 0.92× | 2.43 |
| H2 tied | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 1.06× | 25.36 |
H2 total 22
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H2 over 97.5 | 82.7% | 81.8% | 87.7% | 0.93× | 1.22 |
| H2 under 121.5 | 82.2% | 81.8% | 72.0% | 1.14× | 1.22 |
| H2 over 101.5 | 73.6% | 72.2% | 80.3% | 0.90× | 1.39 |
| H2 under 117.5 | 73.0% | 72.2% | 61.1% | 1.18× | 1.39 |
| H2 over 104.5 | 65.5% | 66.4% | 73.9% | 0.90× | 1.51 |
| H2 under 114.5 | 64.8% | 61.6% | 52.5% | 1.17× | 1.62 |
| H2 over 106.5 | 59.6% | 57.3% | 68.8% | 0.83× | 1.74 |
| H2 under 112.5 | 58.8% | 57.3% | 47.4% | 1.21× | 1.74 |
| H2 over 108.5 | 53.5% | 52.4% | 63.8% | 0.82× | 1.91 |
| H2 under 110.5 | 52.7% | 52.4% | 41.9% | 1.25× | 1.91 |
| H2 over 109.5 | 50.4% | 52.4% | 60.9% | 0.86× | 1.91 |
| H2 under 109.5 | 49.6% | 47.6% | 39.1% | 1.22× | 2.10 |
| H2 over 110.5 | 47.3% | 47.6% | 58.1% | 0.82× | 2.10 |
| H2 under 108.5 | 46.5% | 47.6% | 36.2% | 1.32× | 2.10 |
| H2 over 112.5 | 41.2% | 42.7% | 52.6% | 0.81× | 2.34 |
| H2 under 106.5 | 40.4% | 42.7% | 31.2% | 1.37× | 2.35 |
| H2 over 114.5 | 35.2% | 38.4% | 47.5% | 0.81× | 2.61 |
| H2 under 104.5 | 34.5% | 33.6% | 26.1% | 1.29× | 2.97 |
| H2 over 117.5 | 27.0% | 27.8% | 38.9% | 0.71× | 3.59 |
| H2 under 101.5 | 26.4% | 27.8% | 19.7% | 1.41× | 3.59 |
| H2 over 121.5 | 17.8% | 18.2% | 28.0% | 0.65× | 5.50 |
| H2 under 97.5 | 17.3% | 18.2% | 12.3% | 1.48× | 5.50 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Rockets leading at half time | 60.9% | 62.5% | 52.8% | 1.18× | 1.60 |
| Golden State Warriors leading at half time | 35.8% | 37.8% | 44.1% | 0.86× | 2.64 |
| Level at half time | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.22× | 26.41 |
Handicap 60
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Rockets +18.5 | 96.0% | 97.4% | 91.5% | 1.06× | 1.03 |
| Houston Rockets +20.5 | 97.0% | 97.4% | 93.1% | 1.05× | 1.03 |
| Houston Rockets +16.5 | 94.6% | 91.1% | 89.7% | 1.02× | 1.10 |
| Houston Rockets +14.5 | 92.9% | 91.1% | 87.0% | 1.05× | 1.10 |
| Houston Rockets +12.5 | 90.8% | 91.1% | 83.9% | 1.09× | 1.10 |
| Houston Rockets +9.5 | 86.9% | 85.9% | 78.1% | 1.10× | 1.16 |
| Houston Rockets +10.5 | 88.3% | 85.9% | 80.3% | 1.07× | 1.16 |
| Houston Rockets +8.5 | 85.4% | 85.9% | 75.7% | 1.13× | 1.16 |
| Houston Rockets +7.5 | 83.7% | 81.1% | 73.0% | 1.11× | 1.23 |
| Houston Rockets +6.5 | 82.0% | 81.1% | 70.6% | 1.15× | 1.23 |
| Golden State Warriors +20.5 | 82.0% | 81.1% | 89.1% | 0.91× | 1.23 |
| Houston Rockets +5.5 | 80.1% | 81.1% | 68.0% | 1.19× | 1.23 |
| Houston Rockets +4.5 | 78.1% | 76.5% | 65.7% | 1.16× | 1.31 |
| Golden State Warriors +18.5 | 78.1% | 76.5% | 86.4% | 0.89× | 1.31 |
| Houston Rockets +3.5 | 76.0% | 76.5% | 63.1% | 1.21× | 1.31 |
| Houston Rockets +2.5 | 73.7% | 71.6% | 60.5% | 1.18× | 1.40 |
| Golden State Warriors +16.5 | 73.7% | 71.6% | 83.5% | 0.86× | 1.40 |
| Houston Rockets +1.5 | 71.4% | 71.6% | 57.9% | 1.24× | 1.40 |
| Golden State Warriors +14.5 | 69.0% | 66.7% | 80.1% | 0.83× | 1.50 |
| Houston Rockets −1.5 | 66.4% | 66.7% | 53.7% | 1.24× | 1.50 |
| Golden State Warriors +12.5 | 63.9% | 61.9% | 76.0% | 0.82× | 1.62 |
| Houston Rockets −2.5 | 63.7% | 61.9% | 50.9% | 1.22× | 1.62 |
| Houston Rockets −3.5 | 61.0% | 61.9% | 48.4% | 1.28× | 1.62 |
| Houston Rockets −4.5 | 58.3% | 57.1% | 46.0% | 1.24× | 1.75 |
| Golden State Warriors +10.5 | 58.5% | 57.1% | 71.0% | 0.80× | 1.75 |
| Houston Rockets −5.5 | 55.5% | 57.1% | 42.9% | 1.33× | 1.75 |
| Golden State Warriors +9.5 | 55.8% | 57.1% | 68.7% | 0.83× | 1.75 |
| Houston Rockets −6.5 | 52.7% | 52.4% | 40.0% | 1.31× | 1.91 |
| Golden State Warriors +8.5 | 53.0% | 52.4% | 65.9% | 0.80× | 1.91 |
| Golden State Warriors +7.5 | 50.2% | 52.4% | 63.0% | 0.83× | 1.91 |
| Houston Rockets −7.5 | 49.8% | 47.6% | 37.0% | 1.29× | 2.10 |
| Golden State Warriors +6.5 | 47.3% | 47.6% | 60.0% | 0.79× | 2.10 |
| Houston Rockets −8.5 | 47.0% | 47.6% | 34.1% | 1.40× | 2.10 |
| Golden State Warriors +5.5 | 44.5% | 42.9% | 57.1% | 0.75× | 2.33 |
| Houston Rockets −9.5 | 44.2% | 42.9% | 31.3% | 1.37× | 2.33 |
| Golden State Warriors +4.5 | 41.7% | 42.9% | 54.1% | 0.79× | 2.33 |
| Houston Rockets −10.5 | 41.5% | 42.9% | 29.0% | 1.48× | 2.33 |
| Golden State Warriors +3.5 | 39.0% | 38.1% | 51.6% | 0.74× | 2.63 |
| Golden State Warriors +2.5 | 36.3% | 38.1% | 49.1% | 0.78× | 2.63 |
| Houston Rockets −12.5 | 36.1% | 38.1% | 24.0% | 1.58× | 2.63 |
| Golden State Warriors +1.5 | 33.6% | 33.3% | 46.3% | 0.72× | 3.01 |
| Houston Rockets −14.5 | 31.0% | 33.3% | 19.9% | 1.68× | 3.01 |
| Golden State Warriors −1.5 | 28.6% | 28.4% | 42.1% | 0.67× | 3.53 |
| Golden State Warriors −2.5 | 26.3% | 28.4% | 39.5% | 0.72× | 3.53 |
| Houston Rockets −16.5 | 26.3% | 28.4% | 16.5% | 1.72× | 3.53 |
| Golden State Warriors −3.5 | 24.0% | 23.5% | 36.9% | 0.64× | 4.25 |
| Golden State Warriors −4.5 | 21.9% | 23.5% | 34.3% | 0.69× | 4.25 |
| Houston Rockets −18.5 | 21.9% | 23.5% | 13.6% | 1.73× | 4.25 |
| Golden State Warriors −5.5 | 19.9% | 18.9% | 32.0% | 0.59× | 5.29 |
| Golden State Warriors −6.5 | 18.0% | 18.9% | 29.4% | 0.64× | 5.29 |
| Houston Rockets −20.5 | 18.0% | 18.9% | 10.9% | 1.74× | 5.29 |
| Golden State Warriors −7.5 | 16.3% | 18.9% | 27.0% | 0.70× | 5.30 |
| Golden State Warriors −8.5 | 14.6% | 14.1% | 24.3% | 0.58× | 7.09 |
| Golden State Warriors −9.5 | 13.1% | 14.1% | 21.9% | 0.65× | 7.09 |
| Golden State Warriors −10.5 | 11.7% | 14.1% | 19.7% | 0.71× | 7.09 |
| Golden State Warriors −12.5 | 9.2% | 8.9% | 16.1% | 0.55× | 11.25 |
| Golden State Warriors −14.5 | 7.1% | 8.9% | 13.0% | 0.68× | 11.25 |
| Golden State Warriors −16.5 | 5.4% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 0.86× | 11.25 |
| Golden State Warriors −18.5 | 4.0% | 2.6% | 8.5% | 0.30× | 38.72 |
| Golden State Warriors −20.5 | 3.0% | 2.6% | 6.9% | 0.37× | 38.73 |
Highest scoring half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st half highest scoring | 56.4% | 52.6% | 53.5% | 0.98× | 1.90 |
| 2nd half highest scoring | 43.6% | 47.4% | 46.5% | 1.02× | 2.11 |
Highest scoring quarter 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 highest scoring | 28.2% | 27.4% | 29.2% | 0.94× | 3.65 |
| Q3 highest scoring | 27.8% | 27.4% | 27.5% | 1.00× | 3.65 |
| Q2 highest scoring | 26.5% | 27.4% | 26.3% | 1.04× | 3.65 |
| Q4 highest scoring | 17.4% | 18.3% | 17.0% | 1.08× | 5.46 |
HT/FT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Rockets at HT / Houston Rockets at FT | 52.1% | 51.1% | 40.8% | 1.25× | 1.96 |
| Golden State Warriors at HT / Golden State Warriors at FT | 21.0% | 24.4% | 30.9% | 0.79× | 4.10 |
| Golden State Warriors at HT / Houston Rockets at FT | 14.8% | 12.2% | 13.3% | 0.92× | 8.17 |
| Houston Rockets at HT / Golden State Warriors at FT | 8.8% | 8.3% | 12.0% | 0.69× | 12.08 |
| Level at HT / Houston Rockets at FT | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.22× | 47.75 |
| Level at HT / Golden State Warriors at FT | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.49× | 47.77 |
Moneyline 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Rockets to win | 69.0% | 64.5% | 55.7% | 1.16× | 1.55 |
| Golden State Warriors to win | 31.0% | 35.5% | 44.3% | 0.80× | 2.82 |
Odd/Even 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Rockets even | 50.0% | 50.5% | 49.7% | 1.02× | 1.98 |
| Golden State Warriors even | 50.0% | 50.5% | 50.3% | 1.00× | 1.98 |
| Total points odd | 51.3% | 50.5% | 51.0% | 0.99× | 1.98 |
| Houston Rockets odd | 50.0% | 49.5% | 50.3% | 0.98× | 2.02 |
| Golden State Warriors odd | 50.0% | 49.5% | 49.7% | 1.00× | 2.02 |
| Total points even | 48.7% | 49.5% | 49.0% | 1.01× | 2.02 |
Overtime 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No overtime | 93.7% | 94.0% | 94.8% | 0.99× | 1.06 |
| Match to go to overtime | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 1.16× | 16.65 |
Q1 result 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Rockets to win Q1 | 56.3% | 57.3% | 51.3% | 1.12× | 1.75 |
| Golden State Warriors to win Q1 | 39.0% | 38.3% | 44.1% | 0.87× | 2.61 |
| Q1 tied | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 0.90× | 23.94 |
Q1 total 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 under 64.5 | 84.2% | 82.8% | 80.1% | 1.03× | 1.21 |
| Q1 over 48.5 | 81.1% | 82.8% | 85.6% | 0.97× | 1.21 |
| Q1 under 61.5 | 74.1% | 72.7% | 68.5% | 1.06× | 1.38 |
| Q1 over 51.5 | 70.2% | 72.7% | 76.0% | 0.96× | 1.38 |
| Q1 under 59.5 | 66.0% | 67.6% | 60.0% | 1.13× | 1.48 |
| Q1 over 53.5 | 61.6% | 61.7% | 68.2% | 0.90× | 1.62 |
| Q1 under 57.5 | 57.0% | 58.6% | 50.4% | 1.16× | 1.71 |
| Q1 under 56.5 | 52.4% | 52.7% | 45.4% | 1.16× | 1.90 |
| Q1 over 55.5 | 52.3% | 52.7% | 59.2% | 0.89× | 1.90 |
| Q1 under 55.5 | 47.7% | 47.3% | 40.8% | 1.16× | 2.11 |
| Q1 over 56.5 | 47.6% | 47.3% | 54.6% | 0.87× | 2.11 |
| Q1 over 57.5 | 43.0% | 41.4% | 49.6% | 0.83× | 2.42 |
| Q1 under 53.5 | 38.4% | 38.3% | 31.8% | 1.21× | 2.61 |
| Q1 over 59.5 | 34.0% | 32.4% | 40.0% | 0.81× | 3.08 |
| Q1 under 51.5 | 29.8% | 27.3% | 24.0% | 1.14× | 3.66 |
| Q1 over 61.5 | 25.9% | 27.3% | 31.5% | 0.87× | 3.66 |
| Q1 under 48.5 | 18.9% | 17.2% | 14.4% | 1.19× | 5.83 |
| Q1 over 64.5 | 15.8% | 17.2% | 19.9% | 0.86× | 5.83 |
Q2 result 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Rockets to win Q2 | 56.2% | 59.4% | 49.3% | 1.20× | 1.68 |
| Golden State Warriors to win Q2 | 39.1% | 35.8% | 46.2% | 0.77× | 2.79 |
| Q2 tied | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 0.98× | 22.88 |
Q2 total 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 over 47.5 | 83.2% | 83.0% | 87.2% | 0.95× | 1.21 |
| Q2 under 63.5 | 81.9% | 83.0% | 77.5% | 1.07× | 1.21 |
| Q2 over 50.5 | 72.9% | 72.0% | 78.1% | 0.92× | 1.39 |
| Q2 under 60.5 | 71.3% | 72.0% | 65.7% | 1.10× | 1.39 |
| Q2 over 52.5 | 64.6% | 60.7% | 70.3% | 0.86× | 1.65 |
| Q2 under 58.5 | 62.8% | 60.7% | 57.3% | 1.06× | 1.65 |
| Q2 over 54.5 | 55.6% | 58.2% | 61.1% | 0.95× | 1.72 |
| Q2 under 56.5 | 53.7% | 52.7% | 48.3% | 1.09× | 1.90 |
| Q2 over 55.5 | 51.0% | 52.7% | 56.3% | 0.94× | 1.90 |
| Q2 under 55.5 | 49.0% | 47.3% | 43.7% | 1.08× | 2.11 |
| Q2 over 56.5 | 46.3% | 47.3% | 51.7% | 0.92× | 2.11 |
| Q2 under 54.5 | 44.4% | 41.8% | 38.9% | 1.07× | 2.39 |
| Q2 over 58.5 | 37.2% | 39.3% | 42.7% | 0.92× | 2.55 |
| Q2 under 52.5 | 35.4% | 39.3% | 29.7% | 1.32× | 2.55 |
| Q2 over 60.5 | 28.8% | 28.0% | 34.3% | 0.82× | 3.57 |
| Q2 under 50.5 | 27.1% | 28.0% | 21.9% | 1.28× | 3.57 |
| Q2 over 63.5 | 18.1% | 17.0% | 22.5% | 0.76× | 5.88 |
| Q2 under 47.5 | 16.8% | 17.0% | 12.8% | 1.33× | 5.88 |
Q3 result 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Rockets to win Q3 | 56.2% | 56.8% | 50.9% | 1.12× | 1.76 |
| Golden State Warriors to win Q3 | 39.1% | 38.8% | 44.3% | 0.88× | 2.58 |
| Q3 tied | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 0.88× | 23.43 |
Q3 total 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 under 64.5 | 84.0% | 82.3% | 79.2% | 1.04× | 1.22 |
| Q3 over 48.5 | 81.8% | 82.3% | 85.6% | 0.96× | 1.22 |
| Q3 under 61.5 | 73.8% | 71.8% | 67.7% | 1.06× | 1.39 |
| Q3 over 51.5 | 71.0% | 71.8% | 76.1% | 0.94× | 1.39 |
| Q3 under 59.5 | 65.5% | 67.8% | 59.0% | 1.15× | 1.48 |
| Q3 over 53.5 | 62.4% | 61.9% | 68.3% | 0.91× | 1.61 |
| Q3 under 57.5 | 56.4% | 58.4% | 49.8% | 1.17× | 1.71 |
| Q3 over 55.5 | 53.1% | 52.3% | 59.9% | 0.87× | 1.91 |
| Q3 under 56.5 | 51.7% | 52.3% | 45.0% | 1.16× | 1.91 |
| Q3 over 56.5 | 48.3% | 47.7% | 55.0% | 0.87× | 2.10 |
| Q3 under 55.5 | 46.9% | 47.7% | 40.1% | 1.19× | 2.10 |
| Q3 over 57.5 | 43.6% | 41.6% | 50.2% | 0.83× | 2.40 |
| Q3 under 53.5 | 37.6% | 38.1% | 31.7% | 1.20× | 2.63 |
| Q3 over 59.5 | 34.5% | 32.2% | 41.0% | 0.79× | 3.10 |
| Q3 under 51.5 | 29.0% | 28.2% | 23.9% | 1.18× | 3.55 |
| Q3 over 61.5 | 26.2% | 28.2% | 32.3% | 0.87× | 3.55 |
| Q3 under 48.5 | 18.2% | 17.7% | 14.4% | 1.23× | 5.66 |
| Q3 over 64.5 | 16.0% | 17.7% | 20.8% | 0.85× | 5.66 |
Q4 result 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Rockets to win Q4 | 56.0% | 52.0% | 48.3% | 1.08× | 1.92 |
| Golden State Warriors to win Q4 | 39.2% | 42.4% | 46.4% | 0.91× | 2.36 |
| Q4 tied | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 0.98× | 19.28 |
Q4 total 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 under 61.5 | 82.3% | 82.0% | 77.5% | 1.06× | 1.22 |
| Q4 over 45.5 | 82.1% | 82.0% | 84.6% | 0.97× | 1.22 |
| Q4 under 58.5 | 71.9% | 71.5% | 66.2% | 1.08× | 1.40 |
| Q4 over 48.5 | 71.7% | 71.5% | 75.5% | 0.95× | 1.40 |
| Q4 under 56.5 | 63.6% | 61.4% | 57.2% | 1.07× | 1.63 |
| Q4 over 50.5 | 63.4% | 61.4% | 68.5% | 0.90× | 1.63 |
| Q4 over 52.5 | 54.5% | 52.5% | 60.4% | 0.87× | 1.91 |
| Q4 under 54.5 | 54.7% | 52.5% | 48.6% | 1.08× | 1.91 |
| Q4 under 53.5 | 50.1% | 52.5% | 44.3% | 1.18× | 1.91 |
| Q4 over 53.5 | 49.9% | 47.5% | 55.7% | 0.85× | 2.11 |
| Q4 under 52.5 | 45.5% | 47.5% | 39.6% | 1.20× | 2.11 |
| Q4 over 54.5 | 45.3% | 47.5% | 51.4% | 0.92× | 2.11 |
| Q4 under 50.5 | 36.6% | 38.6% | 31.5% | 1.23× | 2.59 |
| Q4 over 56.5 | 36.4% | 38.6% | 42.8% | 0.90× | 2.59 |
| Q4 under 48.5 | 28.3% | 28.5% | 24.5% | 1.16× | 3.51 |
| Q4 over 58.5 | 28.1% | 28.5% | 33.8% | 0.84× | 3.51 |
| Q4 under 45.5 | 17.9% | 18.0% | 15.4% | 1.17× | 5.56 |
| Q4 over 61.5 | 17.7% | 18.0% | 22.5% | 0.80× | 5.56 |
Team total 44
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden State Warriors under 117.5 | 81.3% | 80.7% | 64.4% | 1.25× | 1.24 |
| Houston Rockets under 124.5 | 80.7% | 80.7% | 76.8% | 1.05× | 1.24 |
| Houston Rockets over 104.5 | 79.5% | 75.1% | 79.8% | 0.94× | 1.33 |
| Golden State Warriors over 97.5 | 79.3% | 75.1% | 89.3% | 0.84× | 1.33 |
| Golden State Warriors under 114.5 | 73.7% | 70.7% | 55.5% | 1.27× | 1.41 |
| Houston Rockets over 107.5 | 71.6% | 70.7% | 72.7% | 0.97× | 1.41 |
| Houston Rockets under 121.5 | 73.0% | 70.7% | 69.6% | 1.02× | 1.41 |
| Golden State Warriors over 100.5 | 71.2% | 70.7% | 84.1% | 0.84× | 1.41 |
| Houston Rockets under 119.5 | 67.1% | 66.4% | 63.5% | 1.05× | 1.51 |
| Golden State Warriors under 112.5 | 67.9% | 66.4% | 48.5% | 1.37× | 1.51 |
| Houston Rockets over 109.5 | 65.7% | 66.4% | 67.0% | 0.99× | 1.51 |
| Golden State Warriors over 102.5 | 65.1% | 66.4% | 79.7% | 0.83× | 1.51 |
| Houston Rockets under 117.5 | 60.8% | 61.2% | 57.8% | 1.06× | 1.63 |
| Golden State Warriors under 110.5 | 61.6% | 61.2% | 42.1% | 1.45× | 1.63 |
| Houston Rockets over 111.5 | 59.3% | 57.1% | 61.1% | 0.93× | 1.75 |
| Golden State Warriors over 104.5 | 58.6% | 57.1% | 75.0% | 0.76× | 1.75 |
| Houston Rockets under 115.5 | 54.1% | 52.3% | 51.6% | 1.01× | 1.91 |
| Golden State Warriors under 108.5 | 54.9% | 52.3% | 36.0% | 1.45× | 1.91 |
| Houston Rockets over 113.5 | 52.6% | 52.3% | 54.3% | 0.96× | 1.91 |
| Golden State Warriors over 106.5 | 51.9% | 52.3% | 68.9% | 0.76× | 1.91 |
| Golden State Warriors under 107.5 | 51.5% | 52.3% | 33.4% | 1.57× | 1.91 |
| Houston Rockets under 114.5 | 50.8% | 52.3% | 48.6% | 1.07× | 1.91 |
| Houston Rockets over 114.5 | 49.2% | 47.7% | 51.4% | 0.93× | 2.09 |
| Houston Rockets under 113.5 | 47.4% | 47.7% | 45.7% | 1.04× | 2.09 |
| Golden State Warriors under 106.5 | 48.1% | 47.7% | 31.1% | 1.54× | 2.09 |
| Golden State Warriors over 107.5 | 48.5% | 47.7% | 66.6% | 0.72× | 2.09 |
| Houston Rockets over 115.5 | 45.9% | 47.7% | 48.4% | 0.99× | 2.09 |
| Golden State Warriors over 108.5 | 45.1% | 47.7% | 64.0% | 0.75× | 2.09 |
| Houston Rockets under 111.5 | 40.7% | 42.9% | 38.9% | 1.10× | 2.33 |
| Golden State Warriors under 104.5 | 41.4% | 42.9% | 25.0% | 1.72× | 2.33 |
| Houston Rockets over 117.5 | 39.2% | 38.8% | 42.2% | 0.92× | 2.58 |
| Golden State Warriors over 110.5 | 38.4% | 38.8% | 57.9% | 0.67× | 2.58 |
| Houston Rockets under 109.5 | 34.3% | 33.6% | 33.0% | 1.02× | 2.98 |
| Golden State Warriors under 102.5 | 34.9% | 33.6% | 20.3% | 1.65× | 2.98 |
| Houston Rockets over 119.5 | 32.9% | 33.6% | 36.5% | 0.92× | 2.98 |
| Golden State Warriors over 112.5 | 32.1% | 33.6% | 51.5% | 0.65× | 2.98 |
| Golden State Warriors under 100.5 | 28.8% | 29.3% | 15.9% | 1.85× | 3.42 |
| Houston Rockets under 107.5 | 28.4% | 29.3% | 27.3% | 1.07× | 3.42 |
| Houston Rockets over 121.5 | 27.0% | 29.3% | 30.4% | 0.96× | 3.42 |
| Golden State Warriors over 114.5 | 26.3% | 29.3% | 44.5% | 0.66× | 3.42 |
| Golden State Warriors under 97.5 | 20.7% | 24.9% | 10.7% | 2.31× | 4.02 |
| Houston Rockets under 104.5 | 20.5% | 24.9% | 20.2% | 1.23× | 4.02 |
| Houston Rockets over 124.5 | 19.3% | 19.3% | 23.2% | 0.83× | 5.18 |
| Golden State Warriors over 117.5 | 18.7% | 19.3% | 35.6% | 0.54× | 5.18 |
Total points 30
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 241.5 points | 86.4% | 85.0% | 75.5% | 1.13× | 1.18 |
| Over 201.5 points | 85.9% | 85.0% | 91.5% | 0.93× | 1.18 |
| Under 236.5 points | 79.5% | 75.6% | 67.3% | 1.12× | 1.32 |
| Over 206.5 points | 79.0% | 75.6% | 86.7% | 0.87× | 1.32 |
| Under 231.5 points | 71.0% | 70.8% | 57.4% | 1.24× | 1.41 |
| Over 211.5 points | 70.3% | 70.8% | 79.7% | 0.89× | 1.41 |
| Under 228.5 points | 65.1% | 65.9% | 51.3% | 1.29× | 1.52 |
| Over 214.5 points | 64.5% | 61.5% | 75.1% | 0.82× | 1.63 |
| Under 226.5 points | 61.1% | 61.5% | 47.3% | 1.30× | 1.63 |
| Over 216.5 points | 60.4% | 61.5% | 71.6% | 0.86× | 1.63 |
| Over 218.5 points | 56.1% | 56.5% | 67.8% | 0.83× | 1.77 |
| Under 224.5 points | 56.8% | 56.5% | 43.5% | 1.30× | 1.77 |
| Over 220.5 points | 51.8% | 52.3% | 64.2% | 0.82× | 1.91 |
| Under 222.5 points | 52.5% | 52.3% | 39.6% | 1.32× | 1.91 |
| Under 221.5 points | 50.4% | 52.3% | 37.8% | 1.38× | 1.91 |
| Over 221.5 points | 49.6% | 47.7% | 62.2% | 0.77× | 2.10 |
| Under 220.5 points | 48.2% | 47.7% | 35.8% | 1.33× | 2.10 |
| Over 222.5 points | 47.5% | 47.7% | 60.4% | 0.79× | 2.10 |
| Under 218.5 points | 43.9% | 43.5% | 32.2% | 1.35× | 2.30 |
| Over 224.5 points | 43.2% | 43.5% | 56.5% | 0.77× | 2.30 |
| Under 216.5 points | 39.6% | 38.5% | 28.4% | 1.36× | 2.60 |
| Over 226.5 points | 39.0% | 38.5% | 52.7% | 0.73× | 2.60 |
| Under 214.5 points | 35.5% | 38.5% | 24.9% | 1.55× | 2.60 |
| Over 228.5 points | 34.9% | 34.1% | 48.7% | 0.70× | 2.93 |
| Under 211.5 points | 29.7% | 29.2% | 20.3% | 1.43× | 3.43 |
| Over 231.5 points | 29.0% | 29.2% | 42.6% | 0.68× | 3.43 |
| Under 206.5 points | 21.0% | 24.4% | 13.3% | 1.84× | 4.10 |
| Over 236.5 points | 20.5% | 24.4% | 32.7% | 0.75× | 4.10 |
| Under 201.5 points | 14.1% | 15.0% | 8.5% | 1.76× | 6.68 |
| Over 241.5 points | 13.6% | 15.0% | 24.5% | 0.61× | 6.68 |
Win both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Rockets to win both halves | 34.9% | 31.3% | 25.2% | 1.24× | 3.20 |
| Golden State Warriors to win both halves | 10.9% | 14.0% | 17.8% | 0.79× | 7.13 |
Winning margin 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Rockets by 1-5 | 13.5% | 12.3% | 12.8% | 0.96× | 8.11 |
| Houston Rockets by 6-10 | 14.0% | 12.3% | 13.9% | 0.88× | 8.11 |
| Houston Rockets by 11-15 | 12.9% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 1.14× | 8.11 |
| Golden State Warriors by 1-5 | 11.1% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 1.01× | 8.11 |
| Houston Rockets by 16-20 | 10.6% | 12.3% | 7.3% | 1.68× | 8.11 |
| Houston Rockets by 26+ | 10.4% | 12.3% | 6.2% | 1.99× | 8.11 |
| Golden State Warriors by 6-10 | 8.3% | 7.5% | 12.3% | 0.61× | 13.40 |
| Houston Rockets by 21-25 | 7.7% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 1.58× | 13.40 |
| Golden State Warriors by 11-15 | 5.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 0.93× | 13.40 |
| Golden State Warriors by 16-20 | 3.2% | 2.0% | 4.9% | 0.42× | 49.30 |
| Golden State Warriors by 21-25 | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 0.67× | 49.31 |
| Golden State Warriors by 26+ | 1.3% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 0.53× | 49.32 |