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Indiana Pacers v Dallas Mavericks — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 23 October 2026 · NBA · 2027

NBA results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Indiana Pacers win
54.0%
Draw
0.0%
Dallas Mavericks win
46.0%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 120.84–119.42 121-119 0% 50% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Indiana Pacers to score 100+ 96.5% 94.9% 89.3% 1.06× 1.05
Dallas Mavericks to score 100+ 95.5% 94.9% 85.9% 1.10× 1.05
Both sides to score 100+ 92.4% 90.3% 77.5% 1.16× 1.11
Indiana Pacers to score 110+ 83.1% 79.3% 67.0% 1.18× 1.26
Dallas Mavericks to score 110+ 80.1% 79.2% 60.9% 1.30× 1.26
Indiana Pacers to score 120+ 54.6% 52.4% 36.5% 1.43× 1.91
Dallas Mavericks to score 120+ 49.7% 47.0% 29.7% 1.59× 2.13
Indiana Pacers to score 130+ 23.3% 22.0% 12.8% 1.72× 4.54
Dallas Mavericks to score 130+ 19.5% 17.6% 10.0% 1.76× 5.69
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Indiana Pacers to win H1 50.8% 51.8% 52.8% 0.98× 1.93
Dallas Mavericks to win H1 45.7% 47.3% 44.1% 1.07× 2.11
H1 tied 3.5% 3.9% 3.1% 1.25× 25.86
H1 total 34
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 131.5 83.3% 83.2% 91.0% 0.91× 1.20
H1 over 107.5 80.5% 83.2% 70.4% 1.18× 1.20
H1 under 133.5 82.7% 82.5% 93.1% 0.89× 1.21
H1 over 109.5 81.7% 82.5% 65.0% 1.27× 1.21
H1 under 127.5 74.6% 74.0% 84.8% 0.87× 1.35
H1 over 111.5 71.1% 73.9% 59.0% 1.25× 1.35
H1 under 129.5 73.7% 73.5% 88.1% 0.83× 1.36
H1 over 113.5 72.5% 73.5% 52.4% 1.40× 1.36
H1 under 126.5 65.7% 67.4% 82.8% 0.81× 1.48
H1 over 114.5 62.9% 63.3% 49.6% 1.28× 1.58
H1 over 116.5 64.3% 62.7% 43.4% 1.44× 1.59
H1 under 124.5 59.8% 58.2% 78.4% 0.74× 1.72
H1 over 118.5 58.4% 58.2% 37.1% 1.57× 1.72
H1 under 122.5 53.8% 52.6% 74.0% 0.71× 1.90
H1 over 120.5 52.3% 52.6% 31.6% 1.67× 1.90
H1 under 121.5 50.7% 52.6% 71.2% 0.74× 1.90
H1 under 119.5 52.1% 52.5% 65.9% 0.80× 1.90
H1 over 119.5 47.9% 47.5% 34.1% 1.39× 2.11
H1 over 121.5 49.3% 47.4% 28.8% 1.64× 2.11
H1 under 120.5 47.7% 47.4% 68.4% 0.69× 2.11
H1 over 122.5 46.2% 47.4% 26.0% 1.82× 2.11
H1 under 118.5 41.6% 41.8% 62.9% 0.66× 2.39
H1 over 124.5 40.2% 41.8% 21.7% 1.93× 2.39
H1 under 116.5 35.7% 37.3% 56.6% 0.66× 2.68
H1 under 114.5 37.1% 36.7% 50.4% 0.73× 2.72
H1 over 126.5 34.4% 32.6% 17.2% 1.89× 3.07
H1 under 113.5 27.5% 26.5% 47.6% 0.56× 3.77
H1 over 129.5 26.3% 26.5% 11.9% 2.24× 3.77
H1 under 111.5 28.9% 26.1% 41.0% 0.63× 3.84
H1 over 127.5 25.4% 26.0% 15.2% 1.72× 3.84
H1 under 109.5 18.3% 17.5% 35.0% 0.50× 5.72
H1 over 133.5 17.3% 17.5% 6.9% 2.54× 5.73
H1 under 107.5 19.5% 16.8% 29.6% 0.57× 5.96
H1 over 131.5 16.7% 16.8% 9.0% 1.86× 5.96
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Indiana Pacers to win H2 50.8% 51.2% 51.6% 0.99× 1.95
Dallas Mavericks to win H2 45.7% 47.1% 44.7% 1.05× 2.12
H2 tied 3.5% 3.9% 3.7% 1.06× 25.36
H2 total 36
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 131.5 83.4% 81.8% 90.1% 0.91× 1.22
H2 over 107.5 81.4% 81.8% 66.2% 1.24× 1.22
H2 over 104.5 82.4% 81.5% 73.9% 1.10× 1.23
H2 under 128.5 82.0% 81.5% 86.3% 0.95× 1.23
H2 over 108.5 73.3% 72.5% 63.8% 1.14× 1.38
H2 under 127.5 74.5% 72.2% 84.9% 0.85× 1.39
H2 over 111.5 72.0% 72.2% 55.3% 1.30× 1.39
H2 under 124.5 66.5% 66.4% 79.1% 0.84× 1.51
H2 under 121.5 64.7% 62.6% 72.0% 0.87× 1.60
H2 over 114.5 63.7% 61.6% 47.5% 1.30× 1.62
H2 under 122.5 60.7% 61.6% 74.4% 0.83× 1.62
H2 over 113.5 59.4% 58.0% 49.9% 1.16× 1.72
H2 over 116.5 57.7% 57.3% 41.9% 1.37× 1.74
H2 under 120.5 54.6% 52.4% 69.3% 0.76× 1.91
H2 under 119.5 51.5% 52.4% 66.4% 0.79× 1.91
H2 over 118.5 51.6% 52.4% 36.4% 1.44× 1.91
H2 over 115.5 53.4% 52.1% 44.6% 1.17× 1.92
H2 under 117.5 52.8% 52.0% 61.1% 0.85× 1.92
H2 over 117.5 47.2% 48.0% 38.9% 1.23× 2.09
H2 under 115.5 46.6% 48.0% 55.4% 0.87× 2.09
H2 over 119.5 48.5% 47.6% 33.6% 1.42× 2.10
H2 under 118.5 48.4% 47.6% 63.6% 0.75× 2.10
H2 over 120.5 45.4% 47.6% 30.7% 1.55× 2.10
H2 under 116.5 42.3% 42.7% 58.1% 0.73× 2.34
H2 under 113.5 40.6% 42.0% 50.1% 0.84× 2.38
H2 over 122.5 39.3% 38.4% 25.6% 1.50× 2.61
H2 under 114.5 36.3% 38.4% 52.5% 0.73× 2.61
H2 over 121.5 35.3% 37.4% 28.0% 1.34× 2.67
H2 over 124.5 33.5% 33.6% 20.9% 1.61× 2.97
H2 under 111.5 28.0% 27.8% 44.7% 0.62× 3.59
H2 over 127.5 25.5% 27.8% 15.1% 1.84× 3.59
H2 under 108.5 26.7% 27.5% 36.2% 0.76× 3.63
H2 over 128.5 18.0% 18.5% 13.7% 1.35× 5.41
H2 under 104.5 17.6% 18.5% 26.1% 0.71× 5.41
H2 under 107.5 18.6% 18.2% 33.8% 0.54× 5.50
H2 over 131.5 16.6% 18.2% 9.9% 1.83× 5.50
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Indiana Pacers leading at half time 50.8% 51.8% 52.8% 0.98× 1.93
Dallas Mavericks leading at half time 45.7% 47.2% 44.1% 1.07× 2.12
Level at half time 3.5% 3.8% 3.1% 1.22× 26.41
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Indiana Pacers +20.5 93.3% 91.1% 93.1% 0.98× 1.10
Indiana Pacers +18.5 91.3% 91.1% 91.5% 1.00× 1.10
Dallas Mavericks +20.5 90.3% 91.1% 89.1% 1.02× 1.10
Indiana Pacers +16.5 88.9% 85.9% 89.7% 0.96× 1.16
Dallas Mavericks +18.5 87.7% 85.9% 86.4% 0.99× 1.16
Indiana Pacers +14.5 86.0% 85.9% 87.0% 0.99× 1.16
Dallas Mavericks +16.5 84.7% 81.1% 83.5% 0.97× 1.23
Indiana Pacers +12.5 82.7% 81.1% 83.9% 0.97× 1.23
Dallas Mavericks +14.5 81.1% 81.1% 80.1% 1.01× 1.23
Indiana Pacers +10.5 78.9% 76.5% 80.3% 0.95× 1.31
Indiana Pacers +9.5 76.8% 76.5% 78.1% 0.98× 1.31
Dallas Mavericks +12.5 77.1% 76.5% 76.0% 1.01× 1.31
Indiana Pacers +8.5 74.6% 71.6% 75.7% 0.95× 1.40
Indiana Pacers +7.5 72.3% 71.6% 73.0% 0.98× 1.40
Dallas Mavericks +10.5 72.7% 71.6% 71.0% 1.01× 1.40
Dallas Mavericks +9.5 70.3% 71.6% 68.7% 1.04× 1.40
Indiana Pacers +6.5 69.9% 66.7% 70.6% 0.95× 1.50
Indiana Pacers +5.5 67.4% 66.7% 68.0% 0.98× 1.50
Dallas Mavericks +8.5 67.9% 66.7% 65.9% 1.01× 1.50
Dallas Mavericks +7.5 65.3% 66.7% 63.0% 1.06× 1.50
Indiana Pacers +4.5 64.9% 61.9% 65.7% 0.94× 1.62
Dallas Mavericks +6.5 62.7% 61.9% 60.0% 1.03× 1.62
Indiana Pacers +3.5 62.2% 61.9% 63.1% 0.98× 1.62
Indiana Pacers +2.5 59.5% 57.1% 60.5% 0.94× 1.75
Dallas Mavericks +5.5 60.0% 57.1% 57.1% 1.00× 1.75
Indiana Pacers +1.5 56.8% 57.1% 57.9% 0.99× 1.75
Dallas Mavericks +4.5 57.3% 57.1% 54.1% 1.06× 1.75
Dallas Mavericks +3.5 54.5% 52.4% 51.6% 1.02× 1.91
Indiana Pacers −1.5 51.2% 52.4% 53.7% 0.98× 1.91
Dallas Mavericks +2.5 51.7% 52.4% 49.1% 1.07× 1.91
Dallas Mavericks +1.5 48.8% 47.6% 46.3% 1.03× 2.10
Indiana Pacers −2.5 48.3% 47.6% 50.9% 0.93× 2.10
Indiana Pacers −3.5 45.5% 47.6% 48.4% 0.98× 2.10
Dallas Mavericks −1.5 43.2% 42.9% 42.1% 1.02× 2.33
Indiana Pacers −4.5 42.7% 42.9% 46.0% 0.93× 2.33
Dallas Mavericks −2.5 40.5% 42.9% 39.5% 1.09× 2.33
Indiana Pacers −5.5 40.0% 42.9% 42.9% 1.00× 2.33
Dallas Mavericks −3.5 37.8% 38.1% 36.9% 1.03× 2.63
Indiana Pacers −6.5 37.3% 38.1% 40.0% 0.95× 2.63
Dallas Mavericks −4.5 35.1% 38.1% 34.3% 1.11× 2.63
Indiana Pacers −7.5 34.7% 33.3% 37.0% 0.90× 3.01
Dallas Mavericks −5.5 32.6% 33.3% 32.0% 1.04× 3.01
Indiana Pacers −8.5 32.1% 33.3% 34.1% 0.98× 3.01
Dallas Mavericks −6.5 30.1% 33.3% 29.4% 1.13× 3.01
Indiana Pacers −9.5 29.7% 28.4% 31.3% 0.91× 3.53
Dallas Mavericks −7.5 27.7% 28.4% 27.0% 1.05× 3.53
Indiana Pacers −10.5 27.3% 28.4% 29.0% 0.98× 3.53
Dallas Mavericks −8.5 25.4% 28.4% 24.3% 1.17× 3.53
Dallas Mavericks −9.5 23.2% 23.5% 21.9% 1.08× 4.25
Indiana Pacers −12.5 22.9% 23.5% 24.0% 0.98× 4.25
Dallas Mavericks −10.5 21.1% 23.5% 19.7% 1.19× 4.25
Indiana Pacers −14.5 18.9% 18.9% 19.9% 0.95× 5.29
Dallas Mavericks −12.5 17.3% 18.9% 16.1% 1.17× 5.29
Indiana Pacers −16.5 15.3% 18.9% 16.5% 1.15× 5.30
Dallas Mavericks −14.5 14.0% 14.1% 13.0% 1.09× 7.09
Indiana Pacers −18.5 12.3% 14.1% 13.6% 1.04× 7.09
Dallas Mavericks −16.5 11.1% 14.1% 10.3% 1.37× 7.09
Dallas Mavericks −18.5 8.7% 8.9% 8.5% 1.04× 11.25
Indiana Pacers −20.5 9.7% 8.9% 10.9% 0.82× 11.25
Dallas Mavericks −20.5 6.7% 8.9% 6.9% 1.29× 11.25
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1st half highest scoring 57.0% 52.6% 53.5% 0.98× 1.90
2nd half highest scoring 43.0% 47.4% 46.5% 1.02× 2.11
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 highest scoring 28.4% 27.4% 29.2% 0.94× 3.65
Q3 highest scoring 28.1% 27.4% 27.5% 1.00× 3.65
Q2 highest scoring 26.6% 27.4% 26.3% 1.04× 3.65
Q4 highest scoring 16.9% 18.3% 17.0% 1.08× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Indiana Pacers at HT / Indiana Pacers at FT 38.9% 37.8% 40.8% 0.93× 2.65
Dallas Mavericks at HT / Dallas Mavericks at FT 32.4% 33.2% 30.9% 1.08× 3.01
Dallas Mavericks at HT / Indiana Pacers at FT 13.2% 12.2% 13.3% 0.92× 8.17
Indiana Pacers at HT / Dallas Mavericks at FT 11.9% 12.2% 12.0% 1.02× 8.18
Level at HT / Indiana Pacers at FT 1.9% 2.1% 1.7% 1.22× 47.76
Level at HT / Dallas Mavericks at FT 1.6% 2.1% 1.4% 1.50× 47.76
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Indiana Pacers to win 54.0% 51.0% 55.7% 0.92× 1.96
Dallas Mavericks to win 46.0% 49.0% 44.3% 1.11× 2.04
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Total points odd 51.4% 50.5% 51.0% 0.99× 1.98
Indiana Pacers even 50.0% 50.5% 49.7% 1.02× 1.98
Dallas Mavericks even 50.0% 50.5% 50.3% 1.00× 1.98
Indiana Pacers odd 50.0% 49.5% 50.3% 0.98× 2.02
Dallas Mavericks odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.7% 1.00× 2.02
Total points even 48.6% 49.5% 49.0% 1.01× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 92.8% 94.0% 94.8% 0.99× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 7.2% 6.0% 5.2% 1.16× 16.65
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Indiana Pacers to win Q1 49.4% 47.6% 51.3% 0.93× 2.10
Dallas Mavericks to win Q1 45.8% 47.6% 44.1% 1.08× 2.10
Q1 tied 4.8% 4.2% 4.6% 0.90× 23.94
Q1 total 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 over 51.5 82.7% 83.2% 76.0% 1.10× 1.20
Q1 under 67.5 82.4% 83.2% 88.8% 0.94× 1.20
Q1 under 69.5 84.7% 82.8% 92.7% 0.89× 1.21
Q1 over 53.5 80.4% 82.8% 68.2% 1.21× 1.21
Q1 over 54.5 72.3% 73.1% 63.3% 1.16× 1.37
Q1 under 66.5 74.9% 72.7% 86.1% 0.84× 1.38
Q1 over 56.5 69.3% 67.6% 54.6% 1.24× 1.48
Q1 under 64.5 66.9% 67.6% 80.1% 0.84× 1.48
Q1 over 58.5 60.6% 61.7% 44.3% 1.39× 1.62
Q1 under 62.5 58.0% 58.6% 72.9% 0.80× 1.71
Q1 over 59.5 50.3% 52.7% 40.0% 1.32× 1.90
Q1 under 61.5 53.3% 52.7% 68.5% 0.77× 1.90
Q1 over 60.5 51.3% 52.7% 35.5% 1.48× 1.90
Q1 under 60.5 48.7% 47.3% 64.5% 0.73× 2.11
Q1 over 61.5 46.7% 47.3% 31.5% 1.50× 2.11
Q1 under 59.5 49.7% 47.3% 60.0% 0.79× 2.11
Q1 over 62.5 42.0% 41.4% 27.1% 1.53× 2.42
Q1 under 58.5 39.4% 38.3% 55.7% 0.69× 2.61
Q1 over 64.5 33.1% 32.4% 19.9% 1.63× 3.08
Q1 under 56.5 30.7% 32.4% 45.4% 0.71× 3.08
Q1 over 66.5 25.1% 27.3% 13.9% 1.96× 3.67
Q1 under 54.5 27.7% 26.9% 36.7% 0.73× 3.72
Q1 under 53.5 19.6% 17.2% 31.8% 0.54× 5.83
Q1 over 69.5 15.3% 17.2% 7.3% 2.34× 5.83
Q1 over 67.5 17.6% 16.8% 11.2% 1.49× 5.95
Q1 under 51.5 17.3% 16.8% 24.0% 0.70× 5.95
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Indiana Pacers to win Q2 49.4% 47.1% 49.3% 0.95× 2.13
Dallas Mavericks to win Q2 45.9% 47.0% 46.2% 1.02× 2.13
Q2 tied 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% 0.98× 22.88
Q2 total 32
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 under 67.5 83.1% 83.1% 88.7% 0.94× 1.20
Q2 over 51.5 81.6% 83.1% 74.2% 1.12× 1.20
Q2 over 52.5 82.5% 83.0% 70.3% 1.18× 1.21
Q2 under 68.5 82.6% 83.0% 90.6% 0.92× 1.21
Q2 under 64.5 72.9% 73.0% 80.9% 0.90× 1.37
Q2 over 54.5 71.0% 73.0% 61.1% 1.20× 1.37
Q2 under 65.5 72.2% 72.0% 83.6% 0.86× 1.39
Q2 over 55.5 72.0% 72.0% 56.3% 1.28× 1.39
Q2 under 62.5 64.7% 62.0% 74.4% 0.83× 1.61
Q2 over 56.5 62.6% 62.0% 51.7% 1.20× 1.61
Q2 under 63.5 63.8% 60.7% 77.5% 0.78× 1.65
Q2 over 57.5 63.6% 60.7% 47.3% 1.28× 1.65
Q2 under 61.5 54.8% 52.7% 70.4% 0.75× 1.90
Q2 over 59.5 54.5% 52.7% 38.1% 1.38× 1.90
Q2 under 60.5 50.1% 52.7% 65.7% 0.80× 1.90
Q2 over 58.5 53.5% 52.2% 42.7% 1.22× 1.92
Q2 under 58.5 46.5% 47.8% 57.3% 0.83× 2.09
Q2 over 60.5 49.9% 47.3% 34.3% 1.38× 2.11
Q2 under 59.5 45.5% 47.3% 61.9% 0.76× 2.11
Q2 over 61.5 45.2% 47.3% 29.6% 1.60× 2.11
Q2 under 57.5 36.4% 39.3% 52.7% 0.75× 2.55
Q2 over 63.5 36.2% 39.3% 22.5% 1.75× 2.55
Q2 under 56.5 37.4% 38.0% 48.3% 0.79× 2.63
Q2 over 62.5 35.3% 38.0% 25.6% 1.48× 2.63
Q2 under 55.5 28.0% 28.0% 43.7% 0.64× 3.57
Q2 over 65.5 27.8% 28.0% 16.4% 1.71× 3.57
Q2 under 54.5 29.0% 27.0% 38.9% 0.69× 3.71
Q2 over 64.5 27.1% 27.0% 19.1% 1.41× 3.71
Q2 under 52.5 17.5% 17.0% 29.7% 0.57× 5.88
Q2 over 68.5 17.4% 17.0% 9.4% 1.80× 5.88
Q2 under 51.5 18.4% 16.9% 25.8% 0.65× 5.93
Q2 over 67.5 16.9% 16.9% 11.3% 1.49× 5.93
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Indiana Pacers to win Q3 49.4% 47.6% 50.9% 0.94× 2.10
Dallas Mavericks to win Q3 45.9% 47.5% 44.3% 1.07× 2.10
Q3 tied 4.7% 4.3% 4.9% 0.88× 23.43
Q3 total 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 under 69.5 84.5% 82.3% 91.4% 0.90× 1.22
Q3 over 53.5 81.2% 82.3% 68.3% 1.20× 1.22
Q3 over 51.5 83.4% 82.2% 76.1% 1.08× 1.22
Q3 under 67.5 82.1% 82.2% 87.0% 0.94× 1.22
Q3 over 54.5 73.1% 72.5% 63.9% 1.14× 1.38
Q3 under 66.5 74.5% 71.8% 84.7% 0.85× 1.39
Q3 over 56.5 70.2% 71.8% 55.0% 1.30× 1.39
Q3 under 64.5 66.3% 67.8% 79.2% 0.86× 1.48
Q3 over 58.5 61.5% 61.9% 45.2% 1.37× 1.61
Q3 under 62.5 57.3% 58.4% 71.9% 0.81× 1.71
Q3 over 59.5 51.1% 52.6% 41.0% 1.28× 1.90
Q3 over 60.5 52.2% 52.3% 36.5% 1.43× 1.91
Q3 under 61.5 52.6% 52.3% 67.7% 0.77× 1.91
Q3 under 60.5 47.8% 47.7% 63.5% 0.75× 2.10
Q3 over 61.5 47.4% 47.7% 32.3% 1.48× 2.10
Q3 under 59.5 48.9% 47.4% 59.0% 0.80× 2.11
Q3 over 62.5 42.7% 41.6% 28.1% 1.48× 2.40
Q3 under 58.5 38.5% 38.1% 54.8% 0.69× 2.63
Q3 over 64.5 33.7% 32.2% 20.8% 1.55× 3.10
Q3 under 56.5 29.8% 28.2% 45.0% 0.63× 3.55
Q3 over 66.5 25.5% 28.2% 15.3% 1.85× 3.55
Q3 under 54.5 26.9% 27.5% 36.1% 0.76× 3.64
Q3 over 67.5 17.9% 17.8% 13.0% 1.37× 5.62
Q3 under 51.5 16.6% 17.8% 23.9% 0.74× 5.63
Q3 under 53.5 18.8% 17.7% 31.7% 0.56× 5.66
Q3 over 69.5 15.5% 17.7% 8.6% 2.05× 5.66
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Indiana Pacers to win Q4 49.3% 47.6% 48.3% 0.99× 2.10
Dallas Mavericks to win Q4 45.8% 47.6% 46.4% 1.03× 2.10
Q4 tied 4.9% 5.2% 5.3% 0.98× 19.28
Q4 total 32
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 under 66.5 83.5% 82.0% 90.4% 0.91× 1.22
Q4 over 50.5 80.8% 82.0% 68.5% 1.20× 1.22
Q4 under 65.5 83.9% 81.9% 88.4% 0.93× 1.22
Q4 over 49.5 80.1% 81.9% 72.3% 1.13× 1.22
Q4 under 62.5 74.0% 72.3% 80.4% 0.90× 1.38
Q4 under 63.5 73.5% 71.5% 83.7% 0.85× 1.40
Q4 over 53.5 70.0% 67.4% 55.7% 1.21× 1.48
Q4 under 61.5 65.5% 67.4% 77.5% 0.87× 1.48
Q4 over 52.5 69.2% 66.7% 60.4% 1.10× 1.50
Q4 under 60.5 66.1% 66.6% 74.2% 0.90× 1.50
Q4 over 54.5 60.7% 61.6% 51.4% 1.20× 1.62
Q4 over 55.5 61.5% 61.4% 47.1% 1.30× 1.63
Q4 under 59.5 56.6% 58.4% 70.2% 0.83× 1.71
Q4 over 57.5 52.5% 52.5% 38.1% 1.38× 1.91
Q4 under 58.5 52.1% 52.5% 66.2% 0.79× 1.91
Q4 over 56.5 51.7% 52.3% 42.8% 1.22× 1.91
Q4 under 56.5 48.3% 47.7% 57.2% 0.83× 2.10
Q4 over 58.5 47.9% 47.5% 33.8% 1.41× 2.11
Q4 under 57.5 47.5% 47.5% 61.9% 0.77× 2.11
Q4 over 59.5 43.4% 41.6% 29.8% 1.40× 2.40
Q4 under 55.5 38.5% 38.6% 52.9% 0.73× 2.59
Q4 under 54.5 39.3% 38.4% 48.6% 0.79× 2.61
Q4 over 60.5 33.9% 33.4% 25.8% 1.30× 3.00
Q4 under 52.5 30.8% 33.3% 39.6% 0.84× 3.00
Q4 over 61.5 34.5% 32.6% 22.5% 1.45× 3.07
Q4 under 53.5 30.0% 32.6% 44.3% 0.73× 3.07
Q4 over 63.5 26.5% 28.5% 16.3% 1.75× 3.51
Q4 over 62.5 26.0% 27.7% 19.6% 1.41× 3.61
Q4 under 49.5 19.9% 18.1% 27.7% 0.65× 5.53
Q4 over 65.5 16.1% 18.1% 11.6% 1.56× 5.54
Q4 under 50.5 19.2% 18.0% 31.5% 0.57× 5.56
Q4 over 66.5 16.5% 18.0% 9.6% 1.88× 5.56
Team total 66
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Indiana Pacers under 131.5 81.5% 80.7% 89.8% 0.90× 1.24
Dallas Mavericks under 129.5 80.5% 80.7% 90.0% 0.90× 1.24
Dallas Mavericks over 109.5 80.1% 80.7% 60.9% 1.32× 1.24
Dallas Mavericks under 127.5 81.0% 80.3% 86.9% 0.92× 1.25
Indiana Pacers over 108.5 79.5% 78.3% 69.9% 1.12× 1.28
Dallas Mavericks over 107.5 78.2% 78.3% 66.6% 1.18× 1.28
Indiana Pacers over 111.5 78.5% 75.1% 61.1% 1.23× 1.33
Indiana Pacers under 125.5 71.8% 71.8% 79.1% 0.91× 1.39
Dallas Mavericks over 110.5 70.2% 71.8% 57.9% 1.24× 1.39
Indiana Pacers under 128.5 74.0% 70.7% 85.5% 0.83× 1.41
Dallas Mavericks under 126.5 72.7% 70.7% 85.3% 0.83× 1.41
Dallas Mavericks over 112.5 72.2% 70.7% 51.5% 1.37× 1.41
Indiana Pacers over 114.5 70.4% 70.7% 51.4% 1.38× 1.41
Indiana Pacers over 113.5 66.0% 66.6% 54.3% 1.23× 1.50
Indiana Pacers under 123.5 66.0% 66.6% 74.4% 0.90× 1.50
Indiana Pacers under 126.5 68.3% 66.4% 81.5% 0.81× 1.51
Dallas Mavericks over 114.5 66.2% 66.4% 44.5% 1.49× 1.51
Dallas Mavericks under 124.5 66.8% 66.4% 81.4% 0.82× 1.51
Indiana Pacers over 116.5 64.4% 61.2% 45.3% 1.35× 1.63
Indiana Pacers under 124.5 62.0% 61.2% 76.8% 0.80× 1.63
Dallas Mavericks under 122.5 60.4% 61.2% 77.4% 0.79× 1.63
Indiana Pacers over 115.5 59.8% 57.9% 48.4% 1.20× 1.73
Dallas Mavericks over 116.5 59.7% 57.1% 38.5% 1.48× 1.75
Indiana Pacers over 118.5 57.9% 57.1% 39.7% 1.44× 1.75
Indiana Pacers under 122.5 55.5% 57.1% 71.8% 0.80× 1.75
Dallas Mavericks under 120.5 53.7% 52.3% 72.7% 0.72× 1.91
Indiana Pacers over 120.5 51.2% 52.3% 33.7% 1.55× 1.91
Indiana Pacers under 121.5 52.1% 52.3% 69.6% 0.75× 1.91
Dallas Mavericks over 118.5 53.0% 52.3% 32.6% 1.60× 1.91
Dallas Mavericks under 119.5 50.3% 52.3% 70.3% 0.74× 1.91
Indiana Pacers over 117.5 53.3% 52.2% 42.2% 1.24× 1.91
Indiana Pacers under 119.5 53.3% 52.2% 63.5% 0.82× 1.91
Dallas Mavericks under 117.5 52.0% 52.2% 64.4% 0.81× 1.91
Dallas Mavericks over 117.5 48.0% 47.8% 35.6% 1.34× 2.09
Indiana Pacers under 117.5 46.7% 47.8% 57.8% 0.83× 2.09
Indiana Pacers over 119.5 46.7% 47.8% 36.5% 1.31× 2.09
Dallas Mavericks over 119.5 49.7% 47.7% 29.7% 1.61× 2.09
Indiana Pacers under 120.5 48.8% 47.7% 66.3% 0.72× 2.09
Indiana Pacers over 121.5 47.9% 47.7% 30.4% 1.57× 2.09
Dallas Mavericks under 118.5 47.0% 47.7% 67.4% 0.71× 2.09
Dallas Mavericks over 120.5 46.3% 47.7% 27.3% 1.75× 2.09
Indiana Pacers over 122.5 44.5% 42.9% 28.2% 1.52× 2.33
Indiana Pacers under 118.5 42.1% 42.9% 60.3% 0.71× 2.33
Dallas Mavericks under 116.5 40.3% 42.9% 61.5% 0.70× 2.33
Indiana Pacers under 115.5 40.2% 42.1% 51.6% 0.82× 2.38
Indiana Pacers over 124.5 38.0% 38.8% 23.2% 1.67× 2.58
Dallas Mavericks over 122.5 39.6% 38.8% 22.6% 1.71× 2.58
Indiana Pacers under 116.5 35.6% 38.8% 54.7% 0.71× 2.58
Dallas Mavericks under 114.5 33.8% 33.6% 55.5% 0.61× 2.98
Dallas Mavericks over 124.5 33.2% 33.6% 18.6% 1.81× 2.98
Indiana Pacers over 126.5 31.7% 33.6% 18.5% 1.82× 2.98
Indiana Pacers under 113.5 34.0% 33.4% 45.7% 0.73× 2.99
Indiana Pacers over 123.5 34.0% 33.4% 25.6% 1.31× 2.99
Indiana Pacers under 114.5 29.6% 29.3% 48.6% 0.60× 3.42
Dallas Mavericks over 126.5 27.3% 29.3% 14.7% 1.99× 3.42
Dallas Mavericks under 112.5 27.8% 29.3% 48.5% 0.60× 3.42
Indiana Pacers over 128.5 26.0% 29.3% 14.5% 2.02× 3.42
Dallas Mavericks under 110.5 29.8% 28.2% 42.1% 0.67× 3.55
Indiana Pacers over 125.5 28.2% 28.2% 20.9% 1.35× 3.55
Indiana Pacers under 111.5 21.5% 24.9% 38.9% 0.64× 4.02
Dallas Mavericks under 107.5 21.8% 21.7% 33.4% 0.65× 4.60
Indiana Pacers under 108.5 20.5% 21.7% 30.1% 0.72× 4.60
Dallas Mavericks over 127.5 19.0% 19.7% 13.1% 1.50× 5.07
Dallas Mavericks under 109.5 19.9% 19.3% 39.1% 0.49× 5.18
Dallas Mavericks over 129.5 19.5% 19.3% 10.0% 1.94× 5.18
Indiana Pacers over 131.5 18.5% 19.3% 10.2% 1.89× 5.18
Total points 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 215.5 points 85.5% 85.5% 73.4% 1.16× 1.17
Under 260.5 points 86.4% 85.0% 94.1% 0.90× 1.18
Over 220.5 points 85.9% 85.0% 64.2% 1.33× 1.18
Under 255.5 points 79.6% 75.6% 90.8% 0.83× 1.32
Over 225.5 points 78.9% 75.6% 54.7% 1.38× 1.32
Under 250.5 points 71.1% 70.8% 86.1% 0.82× 1.41
Over 230.5 points 70.2% 70.8% 44.6% 1.59× 1.41
Under 247.5 points 65.3% 65.9% 83.3% 0.79× 1.52
Under 242.5 points 64.7% 61.8% 76.8% 0.80× 1.62
Over 228.5 points 64.4% 61.8% 48.7% 1.27× 1.62
Over 233.5 points 64.3% 61.5% 38.6% 1.59× 1.63
Under 245.5 points 61.2% 61.5% 80.9% 0.76× 1.63
Over 235.5 points 60.2% 61.5% 34.7% 1.77× 1.63
Under 243.5 points 57.0% 56.5% 78.2% 0.72× 1.77
Over 237.5 points 55.9% 56.5% 30.7% 1.84× 1.77
Under 238.5 points 56.5% 56.0% 70.9% 0.79× 1.79
Over 232.5 points 56.2% 56.0% 40.6% 1.38× 1.79
Over 239.5 points 51.6% 52.3% 27.5% 1.90× 1.91
Under 241.5 points 52.7% 52.3% 75.5% 0.69× 1.91
Under 240.5 points 50.5% 52.3% 74.0% 0.71× 1.91
Under 236.5 points 52.3% 52.2% 67.3% 0.78× 1.92
Over 234.5 points 52.0% 52.2% 36.7% 1.42× 1.92
Under 234.5 points 48.0% 47.8% 63.3% 0.75× 2.09
Over 236.5 points 47.7% 47.8% 32.7% 1.46× 2.09
Over 240.5 points 49.5% 47.7% 26.0% 1.84× 2.10
Under 239.5 points 48.4% 47.7% 72.5% 0.66× 2.10
Over 241.5 points 47.3% 47.7% 24.5% 1.95× 2.10
Under 232.5 points 43.8% 44.0% 59.4% 0.74× 2.27
Over 238.5 points 43.5% 44.0% 29.1% 1.51× 2.27
Under 237.5 points 44.1% 43.5% 69.3% 0.63× 2.30
Over 243.5 points 43.0% 43.5% 21.8% 1.99× 2.30
Under 235.5 points 39.8% 38.5% 65.3% 0.59× 2.60
Over 245.5 points 38.8% 38.5% 19.1% 2.01× 2.60
Under 233.5 points 35.7% 38.5% 61.4% 0.63× 2.60
Under 228.5 points 35.6% 38.2% 51.3% 0.75× 2.62
Over 242.5 points 35.3% 38.2% 23.2% 1.65× 2.62
Over 247.5 points 34.7% 34.1% 16.7% 2.04× 2.93
Under 230.5 points 29.8% 29.2% 55.4% 0.53× 3.43
Over 250.5 points 28.9% 29.2% 13.9% 2.11× 3.43
Under 225.5 points 21.1% 24.4% 45.3% 0.54× 4.10
Over 255.5 points 20.4% 24.4% 9.2% 2.65× 4.10
Under 220.5 points 14.1% 15.0% 35.8% 0.42× 6.68
Over 260.5 points 13.6% 15.0% 5.9% 2.55× 6.68
Under 215.5 points 14.5% 14.5% 26.6% 0.55× 6.88
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Indiana Pacers to win both halves 23.7% 23.1% 25.2% 0.92× 4.34
Dallas Mavericks to win both halves 18.7% 18.9% 17.8% 1.06× 5.30
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Indiana Pacers by 1-5 14.0% 12.3% 12.8% 0.96× 8.11
Dallas Mavericks by 1-5 13.4% 12.3% 12.3% 1.01× 8.11
Indiana Pacers by 6-10 12.7% 12.3% 13.9% 0.88× 8.11
Dallas Mavericks by 6-10 11.4% 12.3% 12.3% 1.00× 8.11
Indiana Pacers by 11-15 10.3% 12.3% 10.8% 1.14× 8.11
Dallas Mavericks by 11-15 8.6% 7.5% 8.0% 0.93× 13.40
Indiana Pacers by 16-20 7.4% 7.5% 7.3% 1.02× 13.40
Dallas Mavericks by 16-20 5.8% 7.5% 4.9% 1.53× 13.40
Indiana Pacers by 21-25 4.7% 2.0% 4.7% 0.43× 49.29
Dallas Mavericks by 21-25 3.5% 2.0% 3.0% 0.67× 49.30
Indiana Pacers by 26+ 5.0% 2.0% 6.2% 0.33× 49.28
Dallas Mavericks by 26+ 3.3% 2.0% 3.9% 0.53× 49.30
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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