Iona Gaels v UMBC Retrievers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 27 November 2026 · NCAAW · 2027

NCAAW results-only Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 03:45 UTC

Iona Gaels

17:00 UTC

UMBC Retrievers

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Iona Gaels win

40.2%

Draw

0.0%

UMBC Retrievers win

59.8%

40060

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
nba-normal	40060	57.37–60.22	57-60 0%	52%	0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
UMBC Retrievers to score 100+	0.0%	0.4%	0.5%	0.71×	283.36
UMBC Retrievers to score 110+	0.0%	0.4%	0.1%	4.74×	283.36
UMBC Retrievers to score 120+	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	18.95×	283.36
UMBC Retrievers to score 130+	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	37.89×	283.36
Both sides to score 100+	0.0%	0.4%	0.1%	6.32×	283.36
Iona Gaels to score 100+	0.0%	0.4%	1.8%	0.20×	283.36
Iona Gaels to score 110+	0.0%	0.4%	0.6%	0.64×	283.36
Iona Gaels to score 120+	0.0%	0.4%	0.1%	2.91×	283.36
Iona Gaels to score 130+	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	7.58×	283.36

H1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
UMBC Retrievers to win H1	53.6%	51.9%	39.9%	1.30×	1.93
Iona Gaels to win H1	41.9%	42.7%	56.4%	0.76×	2.34
H1 tied	4.5%	3.9%	3.7%	1.05×	25.85

H1 total 22

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H1 over 44.5	89.3%	87.7%	94.7%	0.93×	1.14
H1 under 68.5	88.2%	87.7%	73.5%	1.19×	1.14
H1 over 48.5	79.6%	77.4%	88.8%	0.87×	1.29
H1 under 64.5	78.5%	77.4%	60.7%	1.28×	1.29
H1 over 51.5	69.8%	67.4%	82.0%	0.82×	1.48
H1 under 61.5	68.8%	67.4%	49.8%	1.35×	1.48
H1 over 53.5	62.4%	62.7%	76.8%	0.82×	1.59
H1 under 59.5	61.4%	62.7%	42.2%	1.49×	1.59
H1 over 55.5	54.5%	52.6%	71.0%	0.74×	1.90
H1 under 57.5	53.6%	52.6%	35.2%	1.50×	1.90
H1 over 56.5	50.5%	52.6%	68.2%	0.77×	1.90
H1 under 56.5	49.5%	47.4%	31.8%	1.49×	2.11
H1 over 57.5	46.4%	47.4%	64.8%	0.73×	2.11
H1 under 55.5	45.5%	47.4%	29.0%	1.63×	2.11
H1 over 59.5	38.6%	37.3%	57.8%	0.64×	2.68
H1 under 53.5	37.6%	37.3%	23.2%	1.61×	2.68
H1 over 61.5	31.2%	32.6%	50.2%	0.65×	3.07
H1 under 51.5	30.2%	32.6%	18.0%	1.81×	3.07
H1 over 64.5	21.5%	22.6%	39.3%	0.57×	4.43
H1 under 48.5	20.4%	22.6%	11.2%	2.02×	4.43
H1 over 68.5	11.8%	12.3%	26.5%	0.46×	8.14
H1 under 44.5	10.7%	12.3%	5.3%	2.34×	8.14

H2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
UMBC Retrievers to win H2	54.0%	51.2%	40.6%	1.26×	1.95
Iona Gaels to win H2	41.6%	43.5%	56.0%	0.78×	2.30
H2 tied	4.3%	3.9%	3.4%	1.16×	25.35

H2 total 22

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H2 under 74.5	88.4%	85.2%	69.9%	1.22×	1.17
H2 over 50.5	87.0%	85.2%	94.0%	0.91×	1.17
H2 under 70.5	79.2%	75.8%	57.8%	1.31×	1.32
H2 over 54.5	76.7%	75.8%	88.0%	0.86×	1.32
H2 under 67.5	70.1%	72.2%	47.9%	1.51×	1.39
H2 over 57.5	66.8%	66.4%	82.2%	0.81×	1.51
H2 under 65.5	63.2%	61.6%	41.2%	1.49×	1.62
H2 over 59.5	59.5%	57.3%	77.0%	0.74×	1.74
H2 under 63.5	55.8%	57.3%	34.7%	1.65×	1.74
H2 over 61.5	51.9%	52.4%	71.3%	0.73×	1.91
H2 under 62.5	52.0%	52.4%	31.7%	1.65×	1.91
H2 under 61.5	48.1%	47.6%	28.7%	1.66×	2.10
H2 over 62.5	48.0%	47.6%	68.3%	0.70×	2.10
H2 over 63.5	44.2%	42.7%	65.3%	0.65×	2.34
H2 under 59.5	40.5%	42.7%	23.0%	1.86×	2.35
H2 over 65.5	36.8%	38.4%	58.8%	0.65×	2.61
H2 under 57.5	33.2%	33.6%	17.8%	1.89×	2.97
H2 over 67.5	29.9%	27.8%	52.1%	0.53×	3.59
H2 under 54.5	23.3%	24.2%	12.0%	2.01×	4.13
H2 over 70.5	20.8%	24.2%	42.2%	0.57×	4.13
H2 under 50.5	13.0%	14.8%	6.0%	2.45×	6.76
H2 over 74.5	11.7%	14.8%	30.1%	0.49×	6.76

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
UMBC Retrievers leading at half time	53.6%	51.9%	39.9%	1.30×	1.93
Iona Gaels leading at half time	41.9%	42.8%	56.4%	0.76×	2.33
Level at half time	4.5%	3.8%	3.7%	1.03×	26.40

Handicap 60

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
UMBC Retrievers +16.5	95.9%	97.4%	75.7%	1.29×	1.03
UMBC Retrievers +18.5	97.3%	97.4%	79.3%	1.23×	1.03
UMBC Retrievers +20.5	98.3%	97.4%	82.0%	1.19×	1.03
Iona Gaels +20.5	95.0%	97.4%	92.7%	1.05×	1.03
UMBC Retrievers +14.5	94.0%	91.1%	72.1%	1.26×	1.10
Iona Gaels +18.5	92.7%	91.1%	91.1%	1.00×	1.10
UMBC Retrievers +12.5	91.5%	91.1%	67.9%	1.34×	1.10
Iona Gaels +16.5	89.7%	85.9%	89.1%	0.96×	1.16
UMBC Retrievers +10.5	88.2%	85.9%	63.2%	1.36×	1.16
UMBC Retrievers +9.5	86.2%	85.9%	60.7%	1.42×	1.16
Iona Gaels +14.5	85.9%	85.9%	86.7%	0.99×	1.16
UMBC Retrievers +8.5	84.1%	81.1%	58.0%	1.40×	1.23
UMBC Retrievers +7.5	81.7%	81.1%	55.2%	1.47×	1.23
Iona Gaels +12.5	81.3%	81.1%	83.8%	0.97×	1.23
UMBC Retrievers +6.5	79.1%	76.5%	52.4%	1.46×	1.31
UMBC Retrievers +5.5	76.4%	76.5%	50.3%	1.52×	1.31
Iona Gaels +10.5	75.8%	76.5%	80.4%	0.95×	1.31
UMBC Retrievers +4.5	73.4%	71.6%	47.8%	1.50×	1.40
Iona Gaels +9.5	72.7%	71.6%	78.7%	0.91×	1.40
UMBC Retrievers +3.5	70.2%	71.6%	45.8%	1.56×	1.40
Iona Gaels +8.5	69.5%	66.7%	76.5%	0.87×	1.50
UMBC Retrievers +2.5	66.9%	66.7%	43.3%	1.54×	1.50
Iona Gaels +7.5	66.1%	66.7%	74.5%	0.90×	1.50
UMBC Retrievers +1.5	63.4%	61.9%	41.3%	1.50×	1.62
Iona Gaels +6.5	62.6%	61.9%	72.3%	0.86×	1.62
Iona Gaels +5.5	59.0%	57.1%	70.1%	0.81×	1.75
UMBC Retrievers −1.5	56.1%	57.1%	38.8%	1.47×	1.75
Iona Gaels +4.5	55.3%	57.1%	67.8%	0.84×	1.75
UMBC Retrievers −2.5	52.3%	52.4%	36.7%	1.43×	1.91
Iona Gaels +3.5	51.5%	52.4%	65.7%	0.80×	1.91
UMBC Retrievers −3.5	48.5%	47.6%	34.3%	1.39×	2.10
Iona Gaels +2.5	47.7%	47.6%	63.3%	0.75×	2.10
Iona Gaels +1.5	43.9%	42.9%	61.2%	0.70×	2.33
UMBC Retrievers −4.5	44.7%	42.9%	32.2%	1.33×	2.33
UMBC Retrievers −5.5	41.0%	42.9%	29.9%	1.44×	2.33
Iona Gaels −1.5	36.6%	38.1%	58.7%	0.65×	2.63
UMBC Retrievers −6.5	37.4%	38.1%	27.7%	1.37×	2.63
Iona Gaels −2.5	33.1%	33.3%	56.7%	0.59×	3.01
UMBC Retrievers −7.5	33.9%	33.3%	25.5%	1.31×	3.01
UMBC Retrievers −8.5	30.5%	33.3%	23.5%	1.41×	3.01
Iona Gaels −3.5	29.8%	28.4%	54.2%	0.52×	3.53
Iona Gaels −4.5	26.6%	28.4%	52.2%	0.54×	3.53
UMBC Retrievers −9.5	27.3%	28.4%	21.3%	1.33×	3.53
Iona Gaels −5.5	23.6%	23.5%	49.7%	0.47×	4.25
UMBC Retrievers −10.5	24.2%	23.5%	19.6%	1.20×	4.25
Iona Gaels −6.5	20.9%	23.5%	47.6%	0.49×	4.25
Iona Gaels −7.5	18.3%	18.9%	44.8%	0.42×	5.29
UMBC Retrievers −12.5	18.7%	18.9%	16.2%	1.16×	5.29
Iona Gaels −8.5	15.9%	18.9%	42.0%	0.45×	5.30
Iona Gaels −9.5	13.8%	14.1%	39.3%	0.36×	7.09
UMBC Retrievers −14.5	14.1%	14.1%	13.3%	1.06×	7.09
Iona Gaels −10.5	11.8%	14.1%	36.8%	0.38×	7.09
UMBC Retrievers −16.5	10.3%	14.1%	10.9%	1.30×	7.09
Iona Gaels −12.5	8.5%	8.9%	32.1%	0.28×	11.25
Iona Gaels −14.5	6.0%	8.9%	27.9%	0.32×	11.25
UMBC Retrievers −18.5	7.3%	8.9%	8.9%	1.00×	11.25
UMBC Retrievers −20.5	5.0%	2.6%	7.3%	0.36×	38.72
Iona Gaels −16.5	4.1%	2.6%	24.3%	0.11×	38.72
Iona Gaels −18.5	2.7%	2.6%	20.7%	0.12×	38.73
Iona Gaels −20.5	1.7%	2.6%	18.0%	0.14×	38.73

Highest scoring half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	70.2%	67.0%	66.7%	1.01×	1.49
1st half highest scoring	29.8%	33.0%	33.3%	0.99×	3.04

Highest scoring quarter 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q4 highest scoring	33.7%	31.9%	31.2%	1.02×	3.14
Q3 highest scoring	31.9%	31.9%	31.3%	1.02×	3.14
Q1 highest scoring	18.0%	18.3%	19.6%	0.94×	5.46
Q2 highest scoring	16.5%	18.3%	17.9%	1.02×	5.46

HT/FT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
UMBC Retrievers at HT / UMBC Retrievers at FT	42.3%	41.0%	30.1%	1.36×	2.44
Iona Gaels at HT / Iona Gaels at FT	26.9%	29.6%	48.3%	0.61×	3.38
Iona Gaels at HT / UMBC Retrievers at FT	15.0%	12.2%	8.2%	1.49×	8.17
UMBC Retrievers at HT / Iona Gaels at FT	11.3%	12.2%	9.8%	1.25×	8.18
Level at HT / Iona Gaels at FT	1.9%	2.1%	1.9%	1.09×	47.76
Level at HT / UMBC Retrievers at FT	2.6%	2.1%	1.8%	1.20×	47.75

Moneyline 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
UMBC Retrievers to win	59.8%	55.2%	40.1%	1.38×	1.81
Iona Gaels to win	40.2%	44.8%	59.9%	0.75×	2.23

Odd/Even 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Total points odd	51.8%	50.5%	51.5%	0.98×	1.98
UMBC Retrievers even	50.1%	50.5%	50.1%	1.01×	1.98
Iona Gaels even	50.2%	50.5%	49.4%	1.02×	1.98
UMBC Retrievers odd	49.9%	49.5%	49.9%	0.99×	2.02
Iona Gaels odd	49.8%	49.5%	50.6%	0.98×	2.02
Total points even	48.2%	49.5%	48.5%	1.02×	2.02

Overtime 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No overtime	94.0%	94.0%	95.6%	0.98×	1.06
Match to go to overtime	6.0%	6.0%	4.4%	1.35×	16.66

Q1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
UMBC Retrievers to win Q1	50.9%	52.6%	40.4%	1.30×	1.90
Iona Gaels to win Q1	43.0%	42.9%	54.7%	0.78×	2.33
Q1 tied	6.1%	5.5%	4.9%	1.11×	18.31

Q1 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 over 20.5	88.5%	87.4%	93.7%	0.93×	1.14
Q1 under 36.5	88.4%	87.4%	77.4%	1.13×	1.14
Q1 over 23.5	77.3%	76.9%	85.4%	0.90×	1.30
Q1 under 33.5	77.3%	76.9%	64.0%	1.20×	1.30
Q1 under 31.5	67.4%	67.6%	54.0%	1.25×	1.48
Q1 over 25.5	67.3%	67.6%	77.6%	0.87×	1.48
Q1 under 29.5	56.1%	58.6%	43.1%	1.36×	1.71
Q1 over 27.5	55.8%	58.6%	67.7%	0.87×	1.71
Q1 under 28.5	50.1%	52.7%	37.3%	1.41×	1.90
Q1 over 28.5	49.9%	47.3%	62.7%	0.76×	2.11
Q1 under 27.5	44.2%	41.4%	32.3%	1.28×	2.42
Q1 over 29.5	43.9%	41.4%	56.9%	0.73×	2.42
Q1 under 25.5	32.7%	32.4%	22.4%	1.45×	3.08
Q1 over 31.5	32.6%	32.4%	46.0%	0.70×	3.08
Q1 under 23.5	22.7%	23.1%	14.6%	1.58×	4.33
Q1 over 33.5	22.7%	23.1%	36.0%	0.64×	4.33
Q1 over 36.5	11.6%	12.6%	22.6%	0.56×	7.95
Q1 under 20.5	11.5%	12.6%	6.3%	1.99×	7.95

Q2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
UMBC Retrievers to win Q2	50.8%	51.4%	41.5%	1.24×	1.95
Iona Gaels to win Q2	43.2%	43.9%	52.9%	0.83×	2.28
Q2 tied	6.0%	6.1%	5.7%	1.07×	16.49

Q2 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q2 under 36.5	89.2%	87.3%	78.7%	1.11×	1.15
Q2 over 20.5	87.6%	87.3%	92.7%	0.94×	1.15
Q2 under 33.5	78.6%	76.8%	65.6%	1.17×	1.30
Q2 over 23.5	75.9%	76.8%	84.6%	0.91×	1.30
Q2 under 31.5	69.0%	67.4%	55.7%	1.21×	1.48
Q2 over 25.5	65.6%	67.4%	76.2%	0.88×	1.49
Q2 under 29.5	57.8%	58.2%	44.2%	1.32×	1.72
Q2 over 27.5	54.1%	52.7%	66.7%	0.79×	1.90
Q2 under 28.5	51.9%	52.7%	38.8%	1.36×	1.90
Q2 over 28.5	48.1%	47.3%	61.2%	0.77×	2.11
Q2 under 27.5	45.9%	47.3%	33.3%	1.42×	2.11
Q2 over 29.5	42.2%	41.8%	55.8%	0.75×	2.39
Q2 under 25.5	34.4%	32.6%	23.8%	1.37×	3.06
Q2 over 31.5	31.0%	32.6%	44.3%	0.74×	3.06
Q2 under 23.5	24.1%	23.2%	15.4%	1.51×	4.31
Q2 over 33.5	21.4%	23.2%	34.4%	0.67×	4.31
Q2 under 20.5	12.4%	12.7%	7.3%	1.74×	7.89
Q2 over 36.5	10.8%	12.7%	21.3%	0.60×	7.90

Q3 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
UMBC Retrievers to win Q3	51.2%	52.7%	41.8%	1.26×	1.90
Iona Gaels to win Q3	42.8%	42.3%	53.3%	0.79×	2.37
Q3 tied	5.9%	5.3%	4.9%	1.07×	18.96

Q3 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q3 under 39.5	89.2%	87.2%	77.9%	1.12×	1.15
Q3 over 23.5	86.5%	87.2%	92.2%	0.95×	1.15
Q3 under 36.5	78.8%	77.3%	64.6%	1.20×	1.29
Q3 over 26.5	74.5%	71.8%	83.8%	0.86×	1.39
Q3 under 34.5	69.5%	67.8%	54.6%	1.24×	1.48
Q3 over 28.5	64.2%	62.0%	76.4%	0.81×	1.61
Q3 under 32.5	58.7%	58.4%	43.9%	1.33×	1.71
Q3 over 30.5	52.9%	52.3%	66.8%	0.78×	1.91
Q3 under 31.5	53.0%	52.3%	38.4%	1.36×	1.91
Q3 under 30.5	47.1%	47.7%	33.2%	1.44×	2.10
Q3 over 31.5	47.0%	47.7%	61.6%	0.77×	2.10
Q3 over 32.5	41.3%	41.6%	56.1%	0.74×	2.40
Q3 under 28.5	35.8%	38.0%	23.6%	1.61×	2.63
Q3 over 34.5	30.5%	32.2%	45.4%	0.71×	3.11
Q3 under 26.5	25.5%	28.2%	16.2%	1.74×	3.55
Q3 over 36.5	21.2%	22.7%	35.4%	0.64×	4.40
Q3 under 23.5	13.5%	12.8%	7.8%	1.64×	7.83
Q3 over 39.5	10.8%	12.8%	22.1%	0.58×	7.83

Q4 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
UMBC Retrievers to win Q4	51.2%	51.4%	41.5%	1.24×	1.95
Iona Gaels to win Q4	43.0%	43.1%	52.8%	0.82×	2.32
Q4 tied	5.8%	5.8%	5.7%	1.02×	17.25

Q4 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q4 under 39.5	87.6%	85.6%	77.0%	1.11×	1.17
Q4 over 23.5	85.2%	85.6%	91.2%	0.94×	1.17
Q4 under 36.5	77.3%	76.9%	64.3%	1.20×	1.30
Q4 over 26.5	73.5%	71.5%	82.6%	0.87×	1.40
Q4 under 34.5	68.2%	67.4%	54.4%	1.24×	1.48
Q4 over 28.5	63.8%	61.4%	75.1%	0.82×	1.63
Q4 under 32.5	57.9%	58.4%	44.6%	1.31×	1.71
Q4 over 30.5	53.0%	52.5%	66.3%	0.79×	1.91
Q4 under 31.5	52.4%	52.5%	38.9%	1.35×	1.91
Q4 over 31.5	47.6%	47.5%	61.1%	0.78×	2.11
Q4 under 30.5	47.0%	47.5%	33.7%	1.41×	2.11
Q4 over 32.5	42.1%	41.6%	55.4%	0.75×	2.40
Q4 under 28.5	36.2%	38.6%	24.9%	1.55×	2.59
Q4 over 34.5	31.8%	32.6%	45.6%	0.71×	3.07
Q4 under 26.5	26.5%	28.5%	17.4%	1.64×	3.51
Q4 over 36.5	22.7%	23.1%	35.7%	0.65×	4.33
Q4 under 23.5	14.8%	14.4%	8.8%	1.63×	6.95
Q4 over 39.5	12.4%	14.4%	23.0%	0.62×	6.95

Team total 44

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
UMBC Retrievers under 71.5	88.1%	83.9%	76.1%	1.10×	1.19
Iona Gaels under 68.5	87.3%	83.9%	54.4%	1.54×	1.19
Iona Gaels over 48.5	84.9%	80.7%	93.3%	0.86×	1.24
UMBC Retrievers over 51.5	84.3%	80.7%	81.0%	1.00×	1.24
UMBC Retrievers under 68.5	80.4%	80.7%	68.6%	1.18×	1.24
Iona Gaels under 65.5	79.5%	75.1%	44.7%	1.68×	1.33
Iona Gaels over 51.5	75.4%	75.1%	89.3%	0.84×	1.33
UMBC Retrievers over 54.5	74.8%	70.7%	73.5%	0.96×	1.41
UMBC Retrievers under 66.5	73.9%	70.7%	62.7%	1.13×	1.41
Iona Gaels under 63.5	73.0%	70.7%	38.5%	1.83×	1.41
Iona Gaels over 53.5	67.8%	66.4%	85.8%	0.77×	1.51
UMBC Retrievers over 56.5	67.3%	66.4%	68.0%	0.98×	1.51
UMBC Retrievers under 64.5	66.4%	66.4%	56.9%	1.17×	1.51
Iona Gaels under 61.5	65.5%	66.4%	33.1%	2.01×	1.51
Iona Gaels over 55.5	59.6%	57.1%	81.6%	0.70×	1.75
UMBC Retrievers over 58.5	59.1%	57.1%	62.1%	0.92×	1.75
UMBC Retrievers under 62.5	58.1%	57.1%	51.0%	1.12×	1.75
Iona Gaels under 59.5	57.4%	57.1%	27.8%	2.05×	1.75
UMBC Retrievers under 61.5	53.9%	52.3%	47.9%	1.09×	1.91
Iona Gaels over 57.5	51.1%	52.3%	77.2%	0.68×	1.91
Iona Gaels under 58.5	53.2%	52.3%	25.3%	2.07×	1.91
UMBC Retrievers over 60.5	50.5%	52.3%	55.6%	0.94×	1.91
UMBC Retrievers under 60.5	49.5%	47.7%	44.4%	1.08×	2.09
Iona Gaels under 57.5	48.9%	47.7%	22.8%	2.09×	2.09
Iona Gaels over 58.5	46.8%	47.7%	74.7%	0.64×	2.09
UMBC Retrievers over 61.5	46.1%	47.7%	52.1%	0.92×	2.09
Iona Gaels over 59.5	42.6%	42.9%	72.2%	0.59×	2.33
UMBC Retrievers over 62.5	41.9%	42.9%	49.0%	0.87×	2.33
Iona Gaels under 55.5	40.4%	42.9%	18.5%	2.32×	2.33
UMBC Retrievers under 58.5	40.9%	42.9%	37.9%	1.13×	2.33
Iona Gaels over 61.5	34.5%	33.6%	66.9%	0.50×	2.98
UMBC Retrievers over 64.5	33.6%	33.6%	43.2%	0.78×	2.98
Iona Gaels under 53.5	32.2%	33.6%	14.2%	2.36×	2.98
UMBC Retrievers under 56.5	32.7%	33.6%	32.0%	1.05×	2.98
Iona Gaels over 63.5	27.0%	29.3%	61.5%	0.48×	3.42
UMBC Retrievers over 66.5	26.1%	29.3%	37.3%	0.79×	3.42
UMBC Retrievers under 54.5	25.2%	29.3%	26.5%	1.11×	3.42
Iona Gaels under 51.5	24.6%	24.9%	10.7%	2.31×	4.02
Iona Gaels over 65.5	20.5%	24.9%	55.3%	0.45×	4.02
UMBC Retrievers over 68.5	19.6%	19.3%	31.4%	0.61×	5.18
UMBC Retrievers under 51.5	15.8%	19.3%	19.0%	1.02×	5.18
Iona Gaels under 48.5	15.1%	19.3%	6.7%	2.90×	5.18
Iona Gaels over 68.5	12.7%	16.1%	45.6%	0.35×	6.21
UMBC Retrievers over 71.5	11.9%	16.1%	23.9%	0.67×	6.21

Total points 30

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 139.5 points	92.4%	88.8%	69.9%	1.27×	1.13
Over 99.5 points	91.7%	88.8%	96.1%	0.92×	1.13
Under 134.5 points	86.3%	85.0%	60.2%	1.41×	1.18
Over 104.5 points	84.1%	80.6%	92.9%	0.87×	1.24
Under 129.5 points	77.6%	75.6%	49.5%	1.53×	1.32
Over 109.5 points	73.4%	70.8%	87.6%	0.81×	1.41
Under 126.5 points	71.0%	70.8%	42.6%	1.66×	1.41
Over 112.5 points	66.0%	65.9%	83.6%	0.79×	1.52
Under 124.5 points	66.2%	65.9%	38.5%	1.71×	1.52
Under 122.5 points	61.0%	61.5%	34.4%	1.79×	1.63
Over 114.5 points	60.7%	61.5%	80.4%	0.76×	1.63
Over 116.5 points	55.3%	56.5%	77.2%	0.73×	1.77
Under 120.5 points	55.7%	56.5%	30.2%	1.87×	1.77
Under 119.5 points	53.1%	52.3%	28.4%	1.84×	1.91
Under 118.5 points	50.2%	52.3%	26.4%	1.98×	1.91
Over 118.5 points	49.8%	47.7%	73.6%	0.65×	2.10
Over 119.5 points	46.9%	47.7%	71.6%	0.67×	2.10
Under 116.5 points	44.7%	43.5%	22.8%	1.91×	2.30
Over 120.5 points	44.3%	43.5%	69.8%	0.62×	2.30
Under 114.5 points	39.3%	38.5%	19.6%	1.97×	2.60
Over 122.5 points	39.0%	38.5%	65.6%	0.59×	2.60
Under 112.5 points	34.0%	34.1%	16.4%	2.09×	2.93
Over 124.5 points	33.8%	34.1%	61.5%	0.55×	2.93
Over 126.5 points	29.0%	29.2%	57.4%	0.51×	3.43
Under 109.5 points	26.6%	29.2%	12.4%	2.35×	3.43
Over 129.5 points	22.4%	24.4%	50.5%	0.48×	4.10
Under 104.5 points	15.9%	19.4%	7.1%	2.72×	5.15
Over 134.5 points	13.7%	15.0%	39.8%	0.38×	6.68
Under 99.5 points	8.3%	11.2%	3.9%	2.86×	8.96
Over 139.5 points	7.6%	11.2%	30.1%	0.37×	8.97

Win both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
UMBC Retrievers to win both halves	25.7%	27.2%	20.4%	1.33×	3.68
Iona Gaels to win both halves	14.3%	14.1%	36.0%	0.39×	7.11

Winning margin 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
UMBC Retrievers by 1-5	18.8%	16.8%	10.2%	1.65×	5.97
Iona Gaels by 1-5	16.5%	16.8%	10.2%	1.64×	5.97
UMBC Retrievers by 6-10	16.8%	16.8%	10.3%	1.63×	5.97
Iona Gaels by 6-10	11.8%	12.3%	12.9%	0.95×	8.11
UMBC Retrievers by 11-15	12.2%	12.3%	7.6%	1.62×	8.11
Iona Gaels by 11-15	6.9%	7.5%	10.8%	0.69×	13.40
UMBC Retrievers by 16-20	7.1%	7.5%	4.8%	1.57×	13.40
Iona Gaels by 16-20	3.2%	2.0%	8.0%	0.25×	49.30
Iona Gaels by 21-25	1.2%	2.0%	5.4%	0.38×	49.32
UMBC Retrievers by 21-25	3.3%	2.0%	2.7%	0.76×	49.30
UMBC Retrievers by 26+	1.7%	2.0%	4.6%	0.44×	49.31
Iona Gaels by 26+	0.5%	2.0%	12.6%	0.16×	49.32

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