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LA Clippers v Miami Heat — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 5 November 2026 · NBA · 2027

NBA results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
LA Clippers win
55.6%
Draw
0.0%
Miami Heat win
44.4%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 119.43–117.45 119-117 0% 49% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Clippers to score 100+ 95.4% 94.8% 89.3% 1.06× 1.05
Miami Heat to score 100+ 93.7% 90.3% 85.9% 1.05× 1.11
Both sides to score 100+ 89.7% 85.1% 77.5% 1.10× 1.18
LA Clippers to score 110+ 80.0% 77.0% 67.0% 1.15× 1.30
Miami Heat to score 110+ 75.0% 76.9% 60.9% 1.26× 1.30
LA Clippers to score 120+ 49.9% 47.0% 36.5% 1.29× 2.13
Miami Heat to score 120+ 43.0% 41.9% 29.7% 1.41× 2.39
LA Clippers to score 130+ 19.8% 17.6% 12.8% 1.37× 5.68
Miami Heat to score 130+ 15.2% 17.5% 10.0% 1.76× 5.71
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Clippers to win H1 51.9% 51.8% 52.8% 0.98× 1.93
Miami Heat to win H1 44.6% 42.7% 44.1% 0.97× 2.34
H1 tied 3.5% 3.9% 3.1% 1.25× 25.86
H1 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 over 107.5 82.3% 82.5% 70.4% 1.17× 1.21
H1 under 131.5 82.1% 82.5% 91.0% 0.91× 1.21
H1 over 111.5 73.2% 73.5% 59.0% 1.25× 1.36
H1 under 127.5 72.9% 73.5% 84.8% 0.87× 1.36
H1 over 114.5 65.1% 67.4% 49.6% 1.36× 1.48
H1 under 124.5 64.8% 62.7% 78.4% 0.80× 1.59
H1 over 116.5 59.3% 58.2% 43.4% 1.34× 1.72
H1 under 122.5 59.0% 58.2% 74.0% 0.79× 1.72
H1 over 118.5 53.2% 52.6% 37.1% 1.42× 1.90
H1 under 120.5 52.9% 52.6% 68.4% 0.77× 1.90
H1 over 119.5 50.2% 52.6% 34.1% 1.55× 1.90
H1 under 119.5 49.8% 47.4% 65.9% 0.72× 2.11
H1 under 118.5 46.8% 47.4% 62.9% 0.75× 2.11
H1 over 120.5 47.1% 47.4% 31.6% 1.50× 2.11
H1 under 116.5 40.7% 41.8% 56.6% 0.74× 2.39
H1 over 122.5 41.0% 41.8% 26.0% 1.60× 2.39
H1 over 124.5 35.2% 37.3% 21.7% 1.72× 2.68
H1 under 114.5 34.9% 32.6% 50.4% 0.65× 3.07
H1 over 127.5 27.1% 26.5% 15.2% 1.75× 3.77
H1 under 111.5 26.8% 26.5% 41.0% 0.65× 3.77
H1 under 107.5 17.7% 17.5% 29.6% 0.59× 5.73
H1 over 131.5 17.9% 17.5% 9.0% 1.94× 5.73
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Clippers to win H2 51.8% 51.2% 51.6% 0.99× 1.95
Miami Heat to win H2 44.7% 43.6% 44.7% 0.97× 2.30
H2 tied 3.5% 3.9% 3.7% 1.06× 25.36
H2 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 129.5 82.8% 81.8% 87.6% 0.93× 1.22
H2 over 105.5 82.1% 81.8% 71.3% 1.15× 1.22
H2 under 125.5 73.7% 72.2% 81.3% 0.89× 1.39
H2 over 109.5 72.8% 72.2% 60.9% 1.19× 1.39
H2 under 122.5 65.6% 66.4% 74.4% 0.89× 1.51
H2 over 112.5 64.6% 61.6% 52.6% 1.17× 1.62
H2 under 120.5 59.7% 57.3% 69.3% 0.83× 1.74
H2 over 114.5 58.7% 57.3% 47.5% 1.21× 1.74
H2 under 118.5 53.6% 52.4% 63.6% 0.82× 1.91
H2 over 116.5 52.6% 52.4% 41.9% 1.25× 1.91
H2 under 117.5 50.5% 52.4% 61.1% 0.86× 1.91
H2 over 117.5 49.5% 47.6% 38.9% 1.22× 2.10
H2 under 116.5 47.4% 47.6% 58.1% 0.82× 2.10
H2 over 118.5 46.4% 47.6% 36.4% 1.31× 2.10
H2 under 114.5 41.3% 42.7% 52.5% 0.81× 2.34
H2 over 120.5 40.3% 42.7% 30.7% 1.39× 2.35
H2 under 112.5 35.4% 38.4% 47.4% 0.81× 2.61
H2 over 122.5 34.4% 33.6% 25.6% 1.31× 2.97
H2 under 109.5 27.2% 27.8% 39.1% 0.71× 3.59
H2 over 125.5 26.3% 27.8% 18.7% 1.49× 3.59
H2 under 105.5 17.9% 18.2% 28.7% 0.63× 5.50
H2 over 129.5 17.2% 18.2% 12.4% 1.46× 5.50
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Clippers leading at half time 51.9% 51.9% 52.8% 0.98× 1.93
Miami Heat leading at half time 44.6% 42.9% 44.1% 0.97× 2.33
Level at half time 3.5% 3.8% 3.1% 1.22× 26.41
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Clippers +20.5 93.8% 91.1% 93.1% 0.98× 1.10
LA Clippers +18.5 91.9% 91.1% 91.5% 1.00× 1.10
LA Clippers +16.5 89.6% 85.9% 89.7% 0.96× 1.16
Miami Heat +20.5 89.6% 85.9% 89.1% 0.96× 1.16
LA Clippers +14.5 86.9% 85.9% 87.0% 0.99× 1.16
Miami Heat +18.5 86.9% 85.9% 86.4% 0.99× 1.16
LA Clippers +12.5 83.7% 81.1% 83.9% 0.97× 1.23
Miami Heat +16.5 83.7% 81.1% 83.5% 0.97× 1.23
Miami Heat +14.5 80.1% 81.1% 80.1% 1.01× 1.23
LA Clippers +10.5 80.0% 76.5% 80.3% 0.95× 1.31
LA Clippers +9.5 78.0% 76.5% 78.1% 0.98× 1.31
LA Clippers +8.5 75.8% 76.5% 75.7% 1.01× 1.31
Miami Heat +12.5 75.9% 76.5% 76.0% 1.01× 1.31
LA Clippers +7.5 73.6% 71.6% 73.0% 0.98× 1.40
LA Clippers +6.5 71.3% 71.6% 70.6% 1.01× 1.40
Miami Heat +10.5 71.4% 71.6% 71.0% 1.01× 1.40
LA Clippers +5.5 68.8% 66.7% 68.0% 0.98× 1.50
Miami Heat +9.5 69.0% 66.7% 68.7% 0.97× 1.50
LA Clippers +4.5 66.3% 66.7% 65.7% 1.02× 1.50
Miami Heat +8.5 66.4% 66.7% 65.9% 1.01× 1.50
Miami Heat +7.5 63.8% 61.9% 63.0% 0.98× 1.62
LA Clippers +3.5 63.7% 61.9% 63.1% 0.98× 1.62
LA Clippers +2.5 61.1% 61.9% 60.5% 1.02× 1.62
Miami Heat +6.5 61.2% 61.9% 60.0% 1.03× 1.62
LA Clippers +1.5 58.3% 57.1% 57.9% 0.99× 1.75
Miami Heat +5.5 58.5% 57.1% 57.1% 1.00× 1.75
Miami Heat +4.5 55.7% 57.1% 54.1% 1.06× 1.75
LA Clippers −1.5 52.8% 52.4% 53.7% 0.98× 1.91
Miami Heat +3.5 52.9% 52.4% 51.6% 1.02× 1.91
Miami Heat +2.5 50.1% 52.4% 49.1% 1.07× 1.91
LA Clippers −2.5 49.9% 47.6% 50.9% 0.93× 2.10
Miami Heat +1.5 47.2% 47.6% 46.3% 1.03× 2.10
LA Clippers −3.5 47.1% 47.6% 48.4% 0.98× 2.10
LA Clippers −4.5 44.3% 42.9% 46.0% 0.93× 2.33
Miami Heat −1.5 41.7% 42.9% 42.1% 1.02× 2.33
LA Clippers −5.5 41.5% 42.9% 42.9% 1.00× 2.33
Miami Heat −2.5 38.9% 38.1% 39.5% 0.96× 2.63
LA Clippers −6.5 38.8% 38.1% 40.0% 0.95× 2.63
Miami Heat −3.5 36.3% 38.1% 36.9% 1.03× 2.63
LA Clippers −7.5 36.2% 38.1% 37.0% 1.03× 2.63
Miami Heat −4.5 33.7% 33.3% 34.3% 0.97× 3.01
LA Clippers −8.5 33.6% 33.3% 34.1% 0.98× 3.01
Miami Heat −5.5 31.2% 33.3% 32.0% 1.04× 3.01
LA Clippers −9.5 31.0% 33.3% 31.3% 1.06× 3.01
Miami Heat −6.5 28.7% 28.4% 29.4% 0.96× 3.53
LA Clippers −10.5 28.6% 28.4% 29.0% 0.98× 3.53
Miami Heat −7.5 26.4% 28.4% 27.0% 1.05× 3.53
Miami Heat −8.5 24.2% 23.5% 24.3% 0.97× 4.25
LA Clippers −12.5 24.1% 23.5% 24.0% 0.98× 4.25
Miami Heat −9.5 22.0% 23.5% 21.9% 1.08× 4.25
Miami Heat −10.5 20.0% 23.5% 19.7% 1.19× 4.25
LA Clippers −14.5 19.9% 18.9% 19.9% 0.95× 5.29
Miami Heat −12.5 16.3% 18.9% 16.1% 1.17× 5.30
LA Clippers −16.5 16.3% 18.9% 16.5% 1.15× 5.30
Miami Heat −14.5 13.1% 14.1% 13.0% 1.09× 7.09
LA Clippers −18.5 13.1% 14.1% 13.6% 1.04× 7.09
Miami Heat −16.5 10.4% 14.1% 10.3% 1.37× 7.09
LA Clippers −20.5 10.4% 14.1% 10.9% 1.30× 7.09
Miami Heat −18.5 8.1% 8.9% 8.5% 1.04× 11.25
Miami Heat −20.5 6.2% 8.9% 6.9% 1.29× 11.25
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1st half highest scoring 56.9% 52.6% 53.5% 0.98× 1.90
2nd half highest scoring 43.1% 47.4% 46.5% 1.02× 2.11
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 highest scoring 28.4% 27.4% 29.2% 0.94× 3.65
Q3 highest scoring 28.1% 27.4% 27.5% 1.00× 3.65
Q2 highest scoring 26.6% 27.4% 26.3% 1.04× 3.65
Q4 highest scoring 16.9% 18.3% 17.0% 1.08× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Clippers at HT / LA Clippers at FT 40.2% 41.0% 40.8% 1.01× 2.44
Miami Heat at HT / Miami Heat at FT 31.2% 33.2% 30.9% 1.08× 3.01
Miami Heat at HT / LA Clippers at FT 13.5% 12.2% 13.3% 0.92× 8.17
LA Clippers at HT / Miami Heat at FT 11.6% 12.2% 12.0% 1.02× 8.18
Level at HT / LA Clippers at FT 1.9% 2.1% 1.7% 1.22× 47.76
Level at HT / Miami Heat at FT 1.6% 2.1% 1.4% 1.50× 47.76
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Clippers to win 55.6% 55.2% 55.7% 0.99× 1.81
Miami Heat to win 44.4% 44.8% 44.3% 1.01× 2.23
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Total points odd 51.4% 50.5% 51.0% 0.99× 1.98
LA Clippers even 50.0% 50.5% 49.7% 1.02× 1.98
Miami Heat even 50.0% 50.5% 50.3% 1.00× 1.98
LA Clippers odd 50.0% 49.5% 50.3% 0.98× 2.02
Miami Heat odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.7% 1.00× 2.02
Total points even 48.6% 49.5% 49.0% 1.01× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 92.9% 94.0% 94.8% 0.99× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 7.1% 6.0% 5.2% 1.16× 16.65
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Clippers to win Q1 50.1% 52.6% 51.3% 1.02× 1.90
Miami Heat to win Q1 45.1% 47.6% 44.1% 1.08× 2.10
Q1 tied 4.8% 4.2% 4.6% 0.90× 23.94
Q1 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 under 68.5 84.3% 82.8% 90.7% 0.91× 1.21
Q1 over 52.5 80.9% 82.8% 72.4% 1.14× 1.21
Q1 under 65.5 74.4% 72.7% 83.2% 0.87× 1.38
Q1 over 55.5 69.9% 67.6% 59.2% 1.14× 1.48
Q1 under 63.5 66.3% 67.6% 76.8% 0.88× 1.48
Q1 over 57.5 61.3% 61.7% 49.6% 1.25× 1.62
Q1 under 61.5 57.3% 58.6% 68.5% 0.86× 1.71
Q1 under 60.5 52.7% 52.7% 64.5% 0.82× 1.90
Q1 over 59.5 52.0% 52.7% 40.0% 1.32× 1.90
Q1 under 59.5 48.0% 47.3% 60.0% 0.79× 2.11
Q1 over 60.5 47.3% 47.3% 35.5% 1.33× 2.11
Q1 over 61.5 42.7% 41.4% 31.5% 1.31× 2.42
Q1 under 57.5 38.7% 38.3% 50.4% 0.76× 2.61
Q1 over 63.5 33.7% 32.4% 23.2% 1.40× 3.08
Q1 under 55.5 30.1% 32.4% 40.8% 0.79× 3.08
Q1 over 65.5 25.6% 27.3% 16.8% 1.62× 3.66
Q1 under 52.5 19.1% 17.2% 27.6% 0.62× 5.83
Q1 over 68.5 15.7% 17.2% 9.3% 1.83× 5.83
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Clippers to win Q2 50.1% 51.3% 49.3% 1.04× 1.95
Miami Heat to win Q2 45.2% 47.0% 46.2% 1.02× 2.13
Q2 tied 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% 0.98× 22.88
Q2 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 over 51.5 82.9% 83.0% 74.2% 1.12× 1.21
Q2 under 67.5 82.2% 83.0% 88.7% 0.94× 1.21
Q2 over 54.5 72.6% 72.0% 61.1% 1.18× 1.39
Q2 under 64.5 71.6% 72.0% 80.9% 0.89× 1.39
Q2 over 56.5 64.3% 60.7% 51.7% 1.17× 1.65
Q2 under 62.5 63.2% 60.7% 74.4% 0.82× 1.65
Q2 over 58.5 55.2% 58.2% 42.7% 1.36× 1.72
Q2 under 60.5 54.1% 52.7% 65.7% 0.80× 1.90
Q2 over 59.5 50.6% 52.7% 38.1% 1.38× 1.90
Q2 under 59.5 49.4% 47.3% 61.9% 0.76× 2.11
Q2 over 60.5 45.9% 47.3% 34.3% 1.38× 2.11
Q2 under 58.5 44.8% 41.8% 57.3% 0.73× 2.39
Q2 over 62.5 36.8% 39.3% 25.6% 1.53× 2.55
Q2 under 56.5 35.7% 39.3% 48.3% 0.81× 2.55
Q2 over 64.5 28.4% 28.0% 19.1% 1.46× 3.57
Q2 under 54.5 27.4% 28.0% 38.9% 0.72× 3.57
Q2 over 67.5 17.8% 17.0% 11.3% 1.50× 5.88
Q2 under 51.5 17.1% 17.0% 25.8% 0.66× 5.88
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Clippers to win Q3 50.1% 52.6% 50.9% 1.04× 1.90
Miami Heat to win Q3 45.2% 47.5% 44.3% 1.07× 2.10
Q3 tied 4.7% 4.3% 4.9% 0.88× 23.43
Q3 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 under 68.5 84.1% 82.3% 89.3% 0.92× 1.22
Q3 over 52.5 81.7% 82.3% 72.2% 1.14× 1.22
Q3 under 65.5 74.0% 71.8% 82.2% 0.87× 1.39
Q3 over 55.5 70.8% 71.8% 59.9% 1.20× 1.39
Q3 under 63.5 65.7% 67.8% 75.9% 0.89× 1.48
Q3 over 57.5 62.1% 61.9% 50.2% 1.23× 1.61
Q3 under 61.5 56.6% 58.4% 67.7% 0.86× 1.71
Q3 over 59.5 52.8% 52.3% 41.0% 1.28× 1.91
Q3 under 60.5 51.9% 52.3% 63.5% 0.82× 1.91
Q3 over 60.5 48.1% 47.7% 36.5% 1.31× 2.10
Q3 under 59.5 47.2% 47.7% 59.0% 0.81× 2.10
Q3 over 61.5 43.4% 41.6% 32.3% 1.29× 2.40
Q3 under 57.5 37.9% 38.1% 49.8% 0.76× 2.63
Q3 over 63.5 34.3% 32.2% 24.1% 1.34× 3.10
Q3 under 55.5 29.2% 28.2% 40.1% 0.70× 3.55
Q3 over 65.5 26.0% 28.2% 17.8% 1.58× 3.55
Q3 under 52.5 18.3% 17.7% 27.8% 0.64× 5.66
Q3 over 68.5 15.9% 17.7% 10.7% 1.65× 5.66
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Clippers to win Q4 50.0% 47.6% 48.3% 0.99× 2.10
Miami Heat to win Q4 45.2% 47.6% 46.4% 1.03× 2.10
Q4 tied 4.9% 5.2% 5.3% 0.98× 19.28
Q4 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 under 65.5 83.0% 82.0% 88.4% 0.93× 1.22
Q4 over 49.5 81.4% 82.0% 72.3% 1.13× 1.22
Q4 under 62.5 72.8% 71.5% 80.4% 0.89× 1.40
Q4 over 52.5 70.7% 71.5% 60.4% 1.18× 1.40
Q4 under 60.5 64.7% 61.4% 74.2% 0.83× 1.63
Q4 over 54.5 62.4% 61.4% 51.4% 1.20× 1.63
Q4 under 58.5 55.8% 58.4% 66.2% 0.88× 1.71
Q4 over 56.5 53.4% 52.5% 42.8% 1.23× 1.91
Q4 under 57.5 51.2% 52.5% 61.9% 0.85× 1.91
Q4 over 57.5 48.8% 47.5% 38.1% 1.25× 2.11
Q4 under 56.5 46.6% 47.5% 57.2% 0.83× 2.11
Q4 over 58.5 44.2% 41.6% 33.8% 1.23× 2.40
Q4 under 54.5 37.6% 38.6% 48.6% 0.79× 2.59
Q4 over 60.5 35.3% 38.6% 25.8% 1.50× 2.59
Q4 under 52.5 29.3% 28.5% 39.6% 0.72× 3.51
Q4 over 62.5 27.2% 28.5% 19.6% 1.45× 3.51
Q4 under 49.5 18.6% 18.0% 27.7% 0.65× 5.56
Q4 over 65.5 17.0% 18.0% 11.6% 1.55× 5.56
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Miami Heat under 127.5 80.5% 80.7% 86.9% 0.93× 1.24
LA Clippers under 129.5 80.2% 80.7% 87.2% 0.93× 1.24
Miami Heat over 107.5 80.1% 80.7% 66.6% 1.21× 1.24
LA Clippers over 109.5 80.0% 75.1% 67.0% 1.12× 1.33
LA Clippers over 112.5 72.2% 70.7% 57.7% 1.23× 1.41
LA Clippers under 126.5 72.4% 70.7% 81.5% 0.87× 1.41
Miami Heat over 110.5 72.2% 70.7% 57.9% 1.22× 1.41
Miami Heat under 124.5 72.7% 70.7% 81.4% 0.87× 1.41
LA Clippers over 114.5 66.2% 66.4% 51.4% 1.29× 1.51
LA Clippers under 124.5 66.5% 66.4% 76.8% 0.86× 1.51
Miami Heat over 112.5 66.2% 66.4% 51.5% 1.29× 1.51
Miami Heat under 122.5 66.7% 66.4% 77.4% 0.86× 1.51
Miami Heat under 120.5 60.4% 61.2% 72.7% 0.84× 1.63
LA Clippers under 122.5 60.1% 61.2% 71.8% 0.85× 1.63
LA Clippers over 116.5 59.9% 57.1% 45.3% 1.26× 1.75
Miami Heat over 114.5 59.8% 57.1% 44.5% 1.28× 1.75
Miami Heat under 118.5 53.7% 52.3% 67.4% 0.78× 1.91
LA Clippers over 118.5 53.3% 52.3% 39.7% 1.32× 1.91
LA Clippers under 120.5 53.5% 52.3% 66.3% 0.79× 1.91
Miami Heat over 116.5 53.1% 52.3% 38.5% 1.36× 1.91
LA Clippers under 119.5 50.1% 52.3% 63.5% 0.82× 1.91
Miami Heat under 117.5 50.3% 52.3% 64.4% 0.81× 1.91
LA Clippers over 119.5 49.9% 47.7% 36.5% 1.31× 2.09
Miami Heat over 117.5 49.7% 47.7% 35.6% 1.34× 2.09
LA Clippers under 118.5 46.7% 47.7% 60.3% 0.79× 2.09
LA Clippers over 120.5 46.5% 47.7% 33.7% 1.42× 2.09
Miami Heat under 116.5 46.9% 47.7% 61.5% 0.78× 2.09
Miami Heat over 118.5 46.3% 47.7% 32.6% 1.46× 2.09
LA Clippers under 116.5 40.1% 42.9% 54.7% 0.78× 2.33
Miami Heat under 114.5 40.2% 42.9% 55.5% 0.77× 2.33
LA Clippers over 122.5 39.9% 38.8% 28.2% 1.38× 2.58
Miami Heat over 120.5 39.6% 38.8% 27.3% 1.42× 2.58
LA Clippers under 114.5 33.8% 33.6% 48.6% 0.69× 2.98
LA Clippers over 124.5 33.5% 33.6% 23.2% 1.45× 2.98
Miami Heat under 112.5 33.8% 33.6% 48.5% 0.69× 2.98
Miami Heat over 122.5 33.3% 33.6% 22.6% 1.48× 2.98
LA Clippers under 112.5 27.8% 29.3% 42.3% 0.69× 3.42
LA Clippers over 126.5 27.6% 29.3% 18.5% 1.59× 3.42
Miami Heat under 110.5 27.8% 29.3% 42.1% 0.69× 3.42
Miami Heat over 124.5 27.3% 29.3% 18.6% 1.58× 3.42
LA Clippers under 109.5 20.0% 24.9% 33.0% 0.75× 4.02
LA Clippers over 129.5 19.8% 19.3% 12.8% 1.50× 5.18
Miami Heat under 107.5 19.9% 19.3% 33.4% 0.58× 5.18
Miami Heat over 127.5 19.5% 19.3% 13.1% 1.47× 5.18
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 257.5 points 86.9% 85.0% 92.3% 0.92× 1.18
Over 217.5 points 85.4% 85.0% 69.6% 1.22× 1.18
Under 252.5 points 80.2% 80.6% 88.1% 0.91× 1.24
Over 222.5 points 78.3% 75.6% 60.4% 1.25× 1.32
Under 247.5 points 71.8% 70.8% 83.3% 0.85× 1.41
Over 227.5 points 69.5% 65.9% 50.6% 1.30× 1.52
Under 244.5 points 66.0% 65.9% 79.5% 0.83× 1.52
Over 230.5 points 63.6% 61.5% 44.6% 1.38× 1.63
Under 242.5 points 62.0% 61.5% 76.8% 0.80× 1.63
Over 232.5 points 59.4% 56.5% 40.6% 1.39× 1.77
Under 240.5 points 57.8% 56.5% 74.0% 0.76× 1.77
Over 234.5 points 55.2% 56.5% 36.7% 1.54× 1.77
Under 238.5 points 53.5% 52.3% 70.9% 0.74× 1.91
Over 236.5 points 50.9% 52.3% 32.7% 1.60× 1.91
Under 237.5 points 51.4% 52.3% 69.3% 0.76× 1.91
Under 236.5 points 49.1% 47.7% 67.3% 0.71× 2.10
Over 237.5 points 48.6% 47.7% 30.7% 1.55× 2.10
Over 238.5 points 46.5% 47.7% 29.1% 1.64× 2.10
Under 234.5 points 44.8% 43.5% 63.3% 0.69× 2.30
Over 240.5 points 42.2% 43.5% 26.0% 1.67× 2.30
Under 232.5 points 40.6% 43.5% 59.4% 0.73× 2.30
Over 242.5 points 38.0% 38.5% 23.2% 1.66× 2.60
Under 230.5 points 36.4% 38.5% 55.4% 0.70× 2.60
Over 244.5 points 34.0% 34.1% 20.5% 1.66× 2.93
Under 227.5 points 30.5% 34.1% 49.4% 0.69× 2.93
Over 247.5 points 28.2% 29.2% 16.7% 1.75× 3.43
Under 222.5 points 21.7% 24.4% 39.6% 0.62× 4.10
Over 252.5 points 19.8% 19.4% 11.9% 1.63× 5.15
Under 217.5 points 14.6% 15.0% 30.4% 0.49× 6.68
Over 257.5 points 13.1% 15.0% 7.7% 1.93× 6.69
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Clippers to win both halves 24.7% 23.1% 25.2% 0.92× 4.33
Miami Heat to win both halves 17.8% 18.9% 17.8% 1.06× 5.30
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LA Clippers by 1-5 14.0% 12.3% 12.8% 0.96× 8.11
Miami Heat by 1-5 13.3% 12.3% 12.3% 1.01× 8.11
LA Clippers by 6-10 12.9% 12.3% 13.9% 0.88× 8.11
Miami Heat by 6-10 11.1% 12.3% 12.3% 1.00× 8.11
LA Clippers by 11-15 10.6% 12.3% 10.8% 1.14× 8.11
Miami Heat by 11-15 8.3% 7.5% 8.0% 0.93× 13.40
LA Clippers by 16-20 7.7% 7.5% 7.3% 1.02× 13.40
Miami Heat by 16-20 5.5% 7.5% 4.9% 1.53× 13.40
LA Clippers by 26+ 5.4% 7.5% 6.2% 1.21× 13.40
LA Clippers by 21-25 5.0% 2.0% 4.7% 0.43× 49.28
Miami Heat by 21-25 3.2% 2.0% 3.0% 0.67× 49.30
Miami Heat by 26+ 3.0% 2.0% 3.9% 0.53× 49.30
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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