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Maine Black Bears v VCU Rams — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 19 November 2026 · NCAAW · 2027

NCAAW results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Maine Black Bears win
83.0%
Draw
0.0%
VCU Rams win
17.0%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 66.21–55.56 66-56 0% 50% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Maine Black Bears to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 1.8% 0.20× 283.35
Maine Black Bears to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.64× 283.36
Maine Black Bears to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 2.91× 283.36
Maine Black Bears to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 7.58× 283.36
VCU Rams to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.71× 283.36
VCU Rams to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.74× 283.36
VCU Rams to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 18.95× 283.36
VCU Rams to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 37.89× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 6.32× 283.36
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Maine Black Bears to win H1 69.6% 68.3% 56.4% 1.21× 1.46
VCU Rams to win H1 26.6% 26.5% 39.9% 0.67× 3.77
H1 tied 3.9% 3.9% 3.7% 1.05× 25.86
H1 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 over 46.5 89.2% 87.7% 92.3% 0.95× 1.14
H1 under 70.5 88.2% 87.7% 78.9% 1.11× 1.14
H1 over 50.5 79.5% 77.4% 84.5% 0.92× 1.29
H1 under 66.5 78.5% 77.4% 67.1% 1.15× 1.29
H1 over 53.5 69.8% 67.4% 76.8% 0.88× 1.48
H1 under 63.5 68.8% 67.4% 57.1% 1.18× 1.48
H1 over 55.5 62.4% 62.7% 71.0% 0.88× 1.59
H1 under 61.5 61.4% 62.7% 49.8% 1.26× 1.59
H1 over 57.5 54.5% 52.6% 64.8% 0.81× 1.90
H1 under 59.5 53.5% 52.6% 42.2% 1.25× 1.90
H1 over 58.5 50.5% 52.6% 61.4% 0.86× 1.90
H1 under 58.5 49.5% 47.4% 38.6% 1.23× 2.11
H1 over 59.5 46.5% 47.4% 57.8% 0.82× 2.11
H1 under 57.5 45.5% 47.4% 35.2% 1.35× 2.11
H1 over 61.5 38.6% 37.3% 50.2% 0.74× 2.68
H1 under 55.5 37.6% 37.3% 29.0% 1.29× 2.68
H1 over 63.5 31.2% 32.6% 42.9% 0.76× 3.07
H1 under 53.5 30.2% 32.6% 23.2% 1.41× 3.07
H1 over 66.5 21.5% 22.6% 32.9% 0.69× 4.43
H1 under 50.5 20.5% 22.6% 15.5% 1.46× 4.43
H1 over 70.5 11.8% 12.3% 21.1% 0.58× 8.14
H1 under 46.5 10.8% 12.3% 7.7% 1.60× 8.14
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Maine Black Bears to win H2 70.8% 67.6% 56.0% 1.21× 1.48
VCU Rams to win H2 25.5% 31.3% 40.6% 0.77× 3.20
H2 tied 3.7% 3.9% 3.4% 1.16× 25.36
H2 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 76.5 88.0% 85.2% 75.6% 1.13× 1.17
H2 over 52.5 87.3% 85.2% 91.3% 0.93× 1.17
H2 under 72.5 78.6% 75.8% 64.1% 1.18× 1.32
H2 over 56.5 77.2% 75.8% 84.1% 0.90× 1.32
H2 under 69.5 69.5% 66.4% 54.8% 1.21× 1.51
H2 over 59.5 67.5% 66.4% 77.0% 0.86× 1.51
H2 under 67.5 62.5% 61.6% 47.9% 1.29× 1.62
H2 over 61.5 60.2% 61.6% 71.3% 0.86× 1.62
H2 under 65.5 55.0% 57.3% 41.2% 1.39× 1.74
H2 over 63.5 52.6% 52.4% 65.3% 0.80× 1.91
H2 under 64.5 51.2% 52.4% 37.9% 1.38× 1.91
H2 over 64.5 48.8% 47.6% 62.1% 0.77× 2.10
H2 under 63.5 47.4% 47.6% 34.7% 1.37× 2.10
H2 over 65.5 45.0% 42.7% 58.8% 0.73× 2.34
H2 under 61.5 39.8% 38.4% 28.7% 1.34× 2.61
H2 over 67.5 37.5% 38.4% 52.1% 0.74× 2.61
H2 under 59.5 32.5% 33.6% 23.0% 1.46× 2.97
H2 over 69.5 30.5% 33.6% 45.2% 0.74× 2.97
H2 under 56.5 22.8% 24.2% 15.9% 1.53× 4.13
H2 over 72.5 21.4% 24.2% 36.0% 0.67× 4.13
H2 under 52.5 12.7% 14.8% 8.7% 1.70× 6.76
H2 over 76.5 12.0% 14.8% 24.4% 0.61× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Maine Black Bears leading at half time 69.6% 68.5% 56.4% 1.21× 1.46
VCU Rams leading at half time 26.6% 26.5% 39.9% 0.66× 3.78
Level at half time 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 1.03× 26.41
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Maine Black Bears +18.5 99.5% 97.4% 91.1% 1.07× 1.03
Maine Black Bears +20.5 99.7% 97.4% 92.7% 1.05× 1.03
Maine Black Bears +9.5 96.2% 97.4% 78.7% 1.24× 1.03
Maine Black Bears +10.5 96.9% 97.4% 80.4% 1.21× 1.03
Maine Black Bears +12.5 98.0% 97.4% 83.8% 1.16× 1.03
Maine Black Bears +14.5 98.7% 97.4% 86.7% 1.12× 1.03
Maine Black Bears +16.5 99.2% 97.4% 89.1% 1.09× 1.03
Maine Black Bears +8.5 95.4% 97.4% 76.5% 1.27× 1.03
Maine Black Bears +7.5 94.5% 91.1% 74.5% 1.22× 1.10
Maine Black Bears +6.5 93.4% 91.1% 72.3% 1.26× 1.10
Maine Black Bears +4.5 90.7% 91.1% 67.8% 1.34× 1.10
Maine Black Bears +5.5 92.1% 91.1% 70.1% 1.30× 1.10
Maine Black Bears +3.5 89.0% 85.9% 65.7% 1.31× 1.16
Maine Black Bears +2.5 87.2% 85.9% 63.3% 1.36× 1.16
Maine Black Bears +1.5 85.2% 85.9% 61.2% 1.40× 1.16
VCU Rams +20.5 82.6% 81.1% 82.0% 0.99× 1.23
Maine Black Bears −1.5 80.4% 81.1% 58.7% 1.38× 1.23
Maine Black Bears −2.5 77.6% 76.5% 56.7% 1.35× 1.31
VCU Rams +18.5 77.3% 76.5% 79.3% 0.96× 1.31
Maine Black Bears −3.5 74.6% 71.6% 54.2% 1.32× 1.40
Maine Black Bears −4.5 71.4% 71.6% 52.2% 1.37× 1.40
VCU Rams +16.5 71.3% 71.6% 75.7% 0.95× 1.40
Maine Black Bears −5.5 68.1% 66.7% 49.7% 1.34× 1.50
Maine Black Bears −6.5 64.6% 61.9% 47.6% 1.30× 1.62
VCU Rams +14.5 64.7% 61.9% 72.1% 0.86× 1.62
Maine Black Bears −7.5 61.0% 61.9% 44.8% 1.38× 1.62
Maine Black Bears −8.5 57.4% 57.1% 42.0% 1.36× 1.75
VCU Rams +12.5 57.5% 57.1% 67.9% 0.84× 1.75
Maine Black Bears −9.5 53.7% 52.4% 39.3% 1.33× 1.91
VCU Rams +10.5 50.1% 52.4% 63.2% 0.83× 1.91
Maine Black Bears −10.5 49.9% 47.6% 36.8% 1.29× 2.10
VCU Rams +9.5 46.3% 47.6% 60.7% 0.78× 2.10
VCU Rams +8.5 42.6% 42.9% 58.0% 0.74× 2.33
Maine Black Bears −12.5 42.5% 42.9% 32.1% 1.34× 2.33
VCU Rams +7.5 39.0% 38.1% 55.2% 0.69× 2.63
VCU Rams +6.5 35.4% 38.1% 52.4% 0.73× 2.63
Maine Black Bears −14.5 35.4% 38.1% 27.9% 1.37× 2.63
VCU Rams +5.5 31.9% 33.3% 50.3% 0.66× 3.01
VCU Rams +4.5 28.6% 28.4% 47.8% 0.59× 3.53
Maine Black Bears −16.5 28.7% 28.4% 24.3% 1.17× 3.53
VCU Rams +3.5 25.4% 28.4% 45.8% 0.62× 3.53
VCU Rams +2.5 22.4% 23.5% 43.3% 0.54× 4.25
Maine Black Bears −18.5 22.7% 23.5% 20.7% 1.14× 4.25
VCU Rams +1.5 19.6% 18.9% 41.3% 0.46× 5.29
Maine Black Bears −20.5 17.4% 18.9% 18.0% 1.05× 5.29
VCU Rams −1.5 14.8% 14.1% 38.8% 0.36× 7.09
VCU Rams −2.5 12.8% 14.1% 36.7% 0.39× 7.09
VCU Rams −3.5 11.0% 14.1% 34.3% 0.41× 7.09
VCU Rams −4.5 9.3% 8.9% 32.2% 0.28× 11.25
VCU Rams −5.5 7.9% 8.9% 29.9% 0.30× 11.25
VCU Rams −6.5 6.6% 8.9% 27.7% 0.32× 11.25
VCU Rams −7.5 5.5% 8.9% 25.5% 0.35× 11.25
VCU Rams −8.5 4.6% 2.6% 23.5% 0.11× 38.72
VCU Rams −9.5 3.8% 2.6% 21.3% 0.12× 38.73
VCU Rams −10.5 3.1% 2.6% 19.6% 0.13× 38.73
VCU Rams −12.5 2.0% 2.6% 16.2% 0.16× 38.73
VCU Rams −14.5 1.3% 2.6% 13.3% 0.19× 38.74
VCU Rams −16.5 0.8% 2.6% 10.9% 0.24× 38.74
VCU Rams −18.5 0.5% 2.6% 8.9% 0.29× 38.74
VCU Rams −20.5 0.3% 2.6% 7.3% 0.35× 38.74
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 70.9% 67.1% 66.7% 1.01× 1.49
1st half highest scoring 29.1% 32.9% 33.3% 0.99× 3.04
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 highest scoring 34.0% 31.9% 31.2% 1.02× 3.14
Q3 highest scoring 32.2% 31.9% 31.3% 1.02× 3.14
Q1 highest scoring 17.7% 18.3% 19.6% 0.94× 5.46
Q2 highest scoring 16.2% 18.3% 17.9% 1.02× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Maine Black Bears at HT / Maine Black Bears at FT 64.2% 62.3% 48.3% 1.29× 1.60
VCU Rams at HT / Maine Black Bears at FT 15.8% 15.4% 9.8% 1.58× 6.47
VCU Rams at HT / VCU Rams at FT 10.8% 12.2% 30.1% 0.41× 8.18
Maine Black Bears at HT / VCU Rams at FT 5.4% 8.3% 8.2% 1.01× 12.10
Level at HT / Maine Black Bears at FT 3.0% 2.1% 1.9% 1.09× 47.74
Level at HT / VCU Rams at FT 0.9% 2.1% 1.8% 1.20× 47.78
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Maine Black Bears to win 83.0% 80.9% 59.9% 1.35× 1.24
VCU Rams to win 17.0% 19.1% 40.1% 0.48× 5.24
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Maine Black Bears even 50.0% 50.5% 49.4% 1.02× 1.98
VCU Rams even 50.3% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
Total points odd 51.2% 50.5% 51.5% 0.98× 1.98
Maine Black Bears odd 50.0% 49.5% 50.6% 0.98× 2.02
VCU Rams odd 49.7% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
Total points even 48.8% 49.5% 48.5% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 95.3% 97.0% 95.6% 1.02× 1.03
Match to go to overtime 4.7% 3.0% 4.4% 0.68× 33.34
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Maine Black Bears to win Q1 62.0% 64.9% 54.7% 1.19× 1.54
VCU Rams to win Q1 32.2% 30.4% 40.4% 0.75× 3.29
Q1 tied 5.7% 5.5% 4.9% 1.11× 18.32
Q1 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 over 21.5 88.5% 87.4% 91.5% 0.96× 1.14
Q1 under 37.5 88.4% 87.4% 81.6% 1.07× 1.14
Q1 over 24.5 77.3% 76.9% 81.8% 0.94× 1.30
Q1 under 34.5 77.3% 76.9% 68.5% 1.12× 1.30
Q1 under 32.5 67.4% 67.6% 59.1% 1.14× 1.48
Q1 over 26.5 67.3% 67.6% 72.9% 0.93× 1.48
Q1 over 28.5 55.9% 58.6% 62.7% 0.94× 1.71
Q1 under 30.5 56.0% 58.6% 48.8% 1.20× 1.71
Q1 under 29.5 50.1% 52.7% 43.1% 1.22× 1.90
Q1 over 29.5 49.9% 47.3% 56.9% 0.83× 2.11
Q1 under 28.5 44.2% 41.4% 37.3% 1.11× 2.42
Q1 over 30.5 44.0% 41.4% 51.2% 0.81× 2.42
Q1 under 26.5 32.7% 32.4% 27.1% 1.20× 3.08
Q1 over 32.5 32.6% 32.4% 40.9% 0.79× 3.08
Q1 under 24.5 22.7% 23.1% 18.2% 1.27× 4.33
Q1 over 34.5 22.7% 23.1% 31.5% 0.73× 4.33
Q1 over 37.5 11.6% 12.6% 18.4% 0.68× 7.95
Q1 under 21.5 11.5% 12.6% 8.5% 1.49× 7.95
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Maine Black Bears to win Q2 61.7% 61.9% 52.9% 1.17× 1.62
VCU Rams to win Q2 32.7% 31.8% 41.5% 0.77× 3.14
Q2 tied 5.6% 6.1% 5.7% 1.07× 16.50
Q2 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 under 37.5 89.2% 87.3% 82.3% 1.06× 1.15
Q2 over 21.5 87.6% 87.3% 90.2% 0.97× 1.15
Q2 under 34.5 78.6% 76.8% 70.1% 1.10× 1.30
Q2 over 24.5 75.8% 76.8% 80.7% 0.95× 1.30
Q2 under 32.5 69.0% 67.4% 60.8% 1.11× 1.48
Q2 over 26.5 65.6% 67.4% 71.6% 0.94× 1.49
Q2 under 30.5 57.8% 58.2% 50.1% 1.16× 1.72
Q2 over 28.5 54.0% 52.7% 61.2% 0.86× 1.90
Q2 under 29.5 51.9% 52.7% 44.2% 1.19× 1.90
Q2 over 29.5 48.1% 47.3% 55.8% 0.85× 2.11
Q2 under 28.5 46.0% 47.3% 38.8% 1.22× 2.11
Q2 over 30.5 42.2% 41.8% 49.9% 0.84× 2.39
Q2 under 26.5 34.4% 32.6% 28.4% 1.15× 3.06
Q2 over 32.5 31.0% 32.6% 39.2% 0.83× 3.06
Q2 under 24.5 24.2% 23.2% 19.3% 1.21× 4.31
Q2 over 34.5 21.4% 23.2% 29.9% 0.78× 4.31
Q2 under 21.5 12.4% 12.7% 9.8% 1.30× 7.89
Q2 over 37.5 10.8% 12.7% 17.7% 0.72× 7.90
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Maine Black Bears to win Q3 63.0% 60.9% 53.3% 1.14× 1.64
VCU Rams to win Q3 31.5% 33.7% 41.8% 0.81× 2.96
Q3 tied 5.5% 5.3% 4.9% 1.07× 18.97
Q3 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 under 40.5 88.9% 87.2% 81.9% 1.07× 1.15
Q3 over 24.5 86.7% 87.2% 89.9% 0.97× 1.15
Q3 under 37.5 78.4% 77.3% 69.7% 1.11× 1.29
Q3 over 27.5 74.9% 71.8% 80.0% 0.90× 1.39
Q3 under 35.5 69.0% 67.8% 59.7% 1.14× 1.48
Q3 over 29.5 64.7% 62.0% 71.8% 0.86× 1.61
Q3 under 33.5 58.2% 58.4% 49.1% 1.19× 1.71
Q3 over 31.5 53.4% 52.3% 61.6% 0.85× 1.91
Q3 under 32.5 52.4% 52.3% 43.9% 1.19× 1.91
Q3 over 32.5 47.6% 47.7% 56.1% 0.85× 2.10
Q3 under 31.5 46.6% 47.7% 38.4% 1.24× 2.10
Q3 over 33.5 41.8% 41.6% 50.9% 0.82× 2.40
Q3 under 29.5 35.3% 38.0% 28.2% 1.35× 2.63
Q3 over 35.5 31.0% 32.2% 40.3% 0.80× 3.11
Q3 under 27.5 25.1% 28.2% 20.0% 1.41× 3.55
Q3 over 37.5 21.6% 22.7% 30.3% 0.75× 4.40
Q3 under 24.5 13.3% 12.8% 10.1% 1.27× 7.83
Q3 over 40.5 11.1% 12.8% 18.1% 0.70× 7.83
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Maine Black Bears to win Q4 62.7% 57.8% 52.8% 1.09× 1.73
VCU Rams to win Q4 31.8% 37.4% 41.5% 0.90× 2.68
Q4 tied 5.4% 5.8% 5.7% 1.02× 17.26
Q4 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 under 40.5 87.4% 85.6% 80.6% 1.06× 1.17
Q4 over 24.5 85.5% 85.6% 89.0% 0.96× 1.17
Q4 under 37.5 76.8% 76.9% 68.8% 1.12× 1.30
Q4 over 27.5 73.9% 71.5% 78.9% 0.91× 1.40
Q4 under 35.5 67.7% 67.4% 59.4% 1.14× 1.48
Q4 over 29.5 64.2% 61.4% 70.8% 0.87× 1.63
Q4 under 33.5 57.4% 58.4% 49.6% 1.18× 1.71
Q4 over 31.5 53.6% 52.5% 61.1% 0.86× 1.91
Q4 under 32.5 51.9% 52.5% 44.6% 1.18× 1.91
Q4 over 32.5 48.1% 47.5% 55.4% 0.86× 2.11
Q4 under 31.5 46.4% 47.5% 38.9% 1.22× 2.11
Q4 over 33.5 42.6% 41.6% 50.4% 0.83× 2.40
Q4 under 29.5 35.8% 38.6% 29.2% 1.32× 2.59
Q4 over 35.5 32.3% 32.6% 40.6% 0.80× 3.07
Q4 under 27.5 26.1% 28.5% 21.1% 1.35× 3.51
Q4 over 37.5 23.2% 23.1% 31.2% 0.74× 4.33
Q4 under 24.5 14.5% 14.4% 11.0% 1.31× 6.95
Q4 over 40.5 12.6% 14.4% 19.4% 0.74× 6.95
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VCU Rams under 66.5 87.7% 83.9% 62.7% 1.34× 1.19
VCU Rams over 46.5 87.0% 83.9% 89.7% 0.94× 1.19
Maine Black Bears over 56.5 85.9% 83.9% 79.5% 1.05× 1.19
Maine Black Bears under 76.5 85.2% 83.9% 75.4% 1.11× 1.19
VCU Rams under 63.5 79.8% 75.1% 53.9% 1.39× 1.33
Maine Black Bears over 59.5 77.5% 75.1% 72.2% 1.04× 1.33
Maine Black Bears under 73.5 76.6% 75.1% 68.5% 1.10× 1.33
VCU Rams over 49.5 77.2% 75.1% 85.1% 0.88× 1.33
VCU Rams under 61.5 73.1% 70.7% 47.9% 1.48× 1.41
Maine Black Bears over 61.5 70.7% 70.7% 66.9% 1.06× 1.41
Maine Black Bears under 71.5 69.7% 66.4% 63.0% 1.05× 1.51
VCU Rams over 51.5 69.4% 66.4% 81.0% 0.82× 1.51
VCU Rams under 59.5 65.4% 66.4% 41.2% 1.61× 1.51
Maine Black Bears over 63.5 63.0% 61.2% 61.5% 1.00× 1.63
Maine Black Bears under 69.5 61.9% 61.2% 57.4% 1.07× 1.63
VCU Rams over 53.5 60.9% 61.2% 76.3% 0.80× 1.63
VCU Rams under 57.5 56.9% 57.1% 34.9% 1.64× 1.75
Maine Black Bears over 65.5 54.8% 52.3% 55.3% 0.95× 1.91
Maine Black Bears under 67.5 53.6% 52.3% 51.3% 1.02× 1.91
VCU Rams over 55.5 52.0% 52.3% 70.8% 0.74× 1.91
VCU Rams under 56.5 52.5% 52.3% 32.0% 1.63× 1.91
Maine Black Bears over 66.5 50.6% 52.3% 51.8% 1.01× 1.91
Maine Black Bears under 66.5 49.4% 47.7% 48.2% 0.99× 2.09
VCU Rams under 55.5 48.0% 47.7% 29.2% 1.63× 2.09
VCU Rams over 56.5 47.5% 47.7% 68.0% 0.70× 2.09
Maine Black Bears under 65.5 45.2% 47.7% 44.7% 1.07× 2.09
Maine Black Bears over 67.5 46.4% 47.7% 48.7% 0.98× 2.09
VCU Rams over 57.5 43.1% 42.9% 65.1% 0.66× 2.33
Maine Black Bears over 69.5 38.1% 38.8% 42.6% 0.91× 2.58
VCU Rams under 53.5 39.1% 38.8% 23.7% 1.64× 2.58
Maine Black Bears under 63.5 37.0% 38.8% 38.5% 1.01× 2.58
VCU Rams over 59.5 34.6% 33.6% 58.8% 0.57× 2.98
Maine Black Bears over 71.5 30.3% 33.6% 37.0% 0.91× 2.98
VCU Rams under 51.5 30.6% 33.6% 19.0% 1.77× 2.98
Maine Black Bears under 61.5 29.3% 29.3% 33.1% 0.89× 3.42
VCU Rams over 61.5 26.9% 29.3% 52.1% 0.56× 3.42
Maine Black Bears under 59.5 22.5% 24.9% 27.8% 0.89× 4.02
Maine Black Bears over 73.5 23.4% 24.9% 31.5% 0.79× 4.02
VCU Rams under 49.5 22.8% 24.9% 14.9% 1.67× 4.02
VCU Rams over 63.5 20.2% 24.9% 46.1% 0.54× 4.02
Maine Black Bears under 56.5 14.1% 16.1% 20.5% 0.79× 6.21
Maine Black Bears over 76.5 14.8% 16.1% 24.6% 0.66× 6.21
VCU Rams under 46.5 13.0% 16.1% 10.3% 1.56× 6.21
VCU Rams over 66.5 12.3% 16.1% 37.3% 0.43× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 143.5 points 92.1% 88.8% 76.7% 1.16× 1.13
Over 103.5 points 91.8% 88.8% 93.6% 0.95× 1.13
Under 138.5 points 85.9% 85.0% 67.9% 1.25× 1.18
Over 108.5 points 84.4% 80.6% 88.9% 0.91× 1.24
Under 133.5 points 77.1% 75.6% 58.0% 1.30× 1.32
Over 113.5 points 73.9% 70.8% 81.9% 0.87× 1.41
Under 130.5 points 70.5% 70.8% 51.7% 1.37× 1.41
Over 116.5 points 66.6% 65.9% 77.2% 0.85× 1.52
Under 128.5 points 65.6% 65.9% 47.2% 1.40× 1.52
Over 118.5 points 61.3% 61.5% 73.6% 0.84× 1.63
Under 126.5 points 60.5% 61.5% 42.6% 1.44× 1.63
Over 120.5 points 55.9% 56.5% 69.8% 0.81× 1.77
Under 124.5 points 55.1% 56.5% 38.5% 1.47× 1.77
Under 123.5 points 52.5% 52.3% 36.7% 1.43× 1.91
Over 122.5 points 50.4% 52.3% 65.6% 0.80× 1.91
Under 122.5 points 49.6% 47.7% 34.4% 1.39× 2.10
Over 123.5 points 47.5% 47.7% 63.3% 0.75× 2.10
Under 120.5 points 44.1% 43.5% 30.2% 1.44× 2.30
Over 124.5 points 44.9% 43.5% 61.5% 0.71× 2.30
Over 126.5 points 39.5% 38.5% 57.4% 0.67× 2.60
Under 118.5 points 38.7% 38.5% 26.4% 1.46× 2.60
Over 128.5 points 34.4% 34.1% 52.8% 0.65× 2.93
Under 116.5 points 33.4% 34.1% 22.8% 1.50× 2.93
Over 130.5 points 29.5% 29.2% 48.3% 0.60× 3.43
Under 113.5 points 26.1% 29.2% 18.1% 1.61× 3.43
Over 133.5 points 22.9% 24.4% 42.0% 0.58× 4.10
Under 108.5 points 15.6% 19.4% 11.1% 1.75× 5.15
Over 138.5 points 14.1% 15.0% 32.1% 0.47× 6.68
Under 103.5 points 8.2% 11.2% 6.4% 1.74× 8.96
Over 143.5 points 7.9% 11.2% 23.3% 0.48× 8.96
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Maine Black Bears to win both halves 46.7% 45.8% 36.0% 1.27× 2.18
VCU Rams to win both halves 4.7% 3.0% 20.4% 0.15× 33.55
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Maine Black Bears by 6-10 18.1% 16.8% 12.9% 1.30× 5.97
Maine Black Bears by 11-15 18.0% 16.8% 10.8% 1.55× 5.97
Maine Black Bears by 1-5 14.9% 12.3% 10.2% 1.21× 8.11
Maine Black Bears by 16-20 14.5% 12.3% 8.0% 1.53× 8.11
Maine Black Bears by 21-25 9.5% 7.5% 5.4% 1.39× 13.40
VCU Rams by 1-5 9.1% 7.5% 10.2% 0.73× 13.40
Maine Black Bears by 26+ 7.9% 7.5% 12.6% 0.59× 13.40
VCU Rams by 6-10 4.8% 2.0% 10.3% 0.20× 49.29
VCU Rams by 11-15 2.1% 2.0% 7.6% 0.27× 49.31
VCU Rams by 16-20 0.7% 2.0% 4.8% 0.43× 49.32
VCU Rams by 21-25 0.2% 2.0% 2.7% 0.76× 49.33
VCU Rams by 26+ 0.1% 2.0% 4.6% 0.44× 49.33
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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