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Memphis Grizzlies v Utah Jazz — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 22 October 2026 · NBA · 2027

NBA results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Memphis Grizzlies win
58.3%
Draw
0.0%
Utah Jazz win
41.7%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 126.12–123.15 126-123 0% 49% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Memphis Grizzlies to score 100+ 98.8% 94.9% 89.3% 1.06× 1.05
Utah Jazz to score 100+ 97.8% 94.9% 85.9% 1.11× 1.05
Both sides to score 100+ 96.7% 94.9% 77.5% 1.22× 1.05
Memphis Grizzlies to score 110+ 92.0% 90.3% 67.0% 1.35× 1.11
Utah Jazz to score 110+ 87.7% 85.0% 60.9% 1.40× 1.18
Memphis Grizzlies to score 120+ 71.3% 72.3% 36.5% 1.98× 1.38
Utah Jazz to score 120+ 62.1% 61.8% 29.7% 2.08× 1.62
Memphis Grizzlies to score 130+ 38.9% 36.0% 12.8% 2.81× 2.78
Utah Jazz to score 130+ 29.3% 27.6% 10.0% 2.76× 3.63
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Memphis Grizzlies to win H1 53.7% 51.9% 52.8% 0.98× 1.93
Utah Jazz to win H1 42.9% 42.7% 44.1% 0.97× 2.34
H1 tied 3.5% 3.9% 3.1% 1.25× 25.86
H1 total 36
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 133.5 82.0% 83.2% 93.1% 0.89× 1.20
H1 over 109.5 81.9% 83.2% 65.0% 1.28× 1.20
H1 under 138.5 83.6% 82.5% 96.9% 0.85× 1.21
H1 over 114.5 80.8% 82.5% 49.6% 1.66× 1.21
H1 over 113.5 72.8% 74.0% 52.4% 1.41× 1.35
H1 under 134.5 74.8% 73.5% 94.0% 0.78× 1.36
H1 over 118.5 71.3% 73.5% 37.1% 1.98× 1.36
H1 under 131.5 66.9% 67.4% 91.0% 0.74× 1.48
H1 over 116.5 64.7% 63.3% 43.4% 1.46× 1.58
H1 over 121.5 63.0% 62.7% 28.8% 2.18× 1.59
H1 under 129.5 61.2% 62.7% 88.1% 0.71× 1.59
H1 over 123.5 57.0% 58.2% 24.0% 2.42× 1.72
H1 under 127.5 55.2% 58.2% 84.8% 0.69× 1.72
H1 under 124.5 59.1% 58.2% 78.4% 0.74× 1.72
H1 under 126.5 52.1% 52.6% 82.8% 0.64× 1.90
H1 over 125.5 50.9% 52.6% 19.3% 2.73× 1.90
H1 under 122.5 53.1% 52.5% 74.0% 0.71× 1.90
H1 over 120.5 52.9% 52.5% 31.6% 1.66× 1.90
H1 under 120.5 47.1% 47.5% 68.4% 0.69× 2.11
H1 over 122.5 46.9% 47.5% 26.0% 1.82× 2.11
H1 under 125.5 49.1% 47.4% 80.7% 0.59× 2.11
H1 over 126.5 47.9% 47.4% 17.2% 2.75× 2.11
H1 over 124.5 40.9% 41.8% 21.7% 1.93× 2.39
H1 over 127.5 44.8% 41.8% 15.2% 2.76× 2.39
H1 under 123.5 43.0% 41.8% 76.0% 0.55× 2.39
H1 over 129.5 38.8% 37.3% 11.9% 3.14× 2.68
H1 under 121.5 37.0% 37.3% 71.2% 0.52× 2.68
H1 under 116.5 35.3% 36.7% 56.6% 0.65× 2.72
H1 over 131.5 33.1% 32.6% 9.0% 3.61× 3.07
H1 under 118.5 28.7% 26.5% 62.9% 0.42× 3.77
H1 over 134.5 25.2% 26.5% 6.0% 4.39× 3.77
H1 under 113.5 27.2% 26.0% 47.6% 0.55× 3.84
H1 under 114.5 19.2% 17.5% 50.4% 0.35× 5.72
H1 over 138.5 16.5% 17.5% 3.1% 5.66× 5.73
H1 under 109.5 18.1% 16.8% 35.0% 0.48× 5.96
H1 over 133.5 18.0% 16.8% 6.9% 2.44× 5.96
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Memphis Grizzlies to win H2 53.6% 51.2% 51.6% 0.99× 1.95
Utah Jazz to win H2 42.9% 43.5% 44.7% 0.97× 2.30
H2 tied 3.5% 3.9% 3.7% 1.06× 25.36
H2 total 32
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 135.5 82.5% 81.8% 93.5% 0.87× 1.22
H2 over 111.5 82.4% 81.8% 55.3% 1.48× 1.22
H2 over 107.5 81.6% 81.5% 66.2% 1.23× 1.23
H2 under 127.5 73.8% 72.5% 84.9% 0.85× 1.38
H2 under 131.5 73.4% 72.2% 90.1% 0.80× 1.39
H2 over 115.5 73.2% 72.2% 44.6% 1.62× 1.39
H2 under 128.5 65.2% 66.4% 86.3% 0.77× 1.51
H2 over 118.5 65.0% 66.4% 36.4% 1.82× 1.51
H2 over 114.5 64.1% 62.6% 47.5% 1.32× 1.60
H2 over 116.5 58.2% 58.0% 41.9% 1.38× 1.72
H2 under 126.5 59.3% 57.3% 83.2% 0.69× 1.74
H2 over 120.5 59.1% 57.3% 30.7% 1.87× 1.74
H2 under 124.5 53.2% 52.4% 79.1% 0.66× 1.91
H2 over 122.5 53.0% 52.4% 25.6% 2.05× 1.91
H2 under 123.5 50.1% 52.4% 76.9% 0.68× 1.91
H2 under 119.5 50.9% 52.0% 66.4% 0.78× 1.92
H2 over 119.5 49.1% 48.0% 33.6% 1.43× 2.09
H2 over 123.5 49.9% 47.6% 23.1% 2.06× 2.10
H2 over 124.5 46.8% 47.6% 20.9% 2.28× 2.10
H2 under 122.5 47.0% 47.6% 74.4% 0.64× 2.10
H2 over 126.5 40.7% 42.7% 16.8% 2.54× 2.35
H2 under 120.5 40.9% 42.7% 69.3% 0.62× 2.35
H2 under 116.5 41.8% 42.0% 58.1% 0.72× 2.38
H2 under 114.5 35.9% 37.4% 52.5% 0.71× 2.67
H2 over 128.5 34.8% 33.6% 13.7% 2.45× 2.97
H2 under 118.5 35.0% 33.6% 63.6% 0.53× 2.97
H2 over 131.5 26.6% 27.8% 9.9% 2.80× 3.59
H2 under 115.5 26.8% 27.8% 55.4% 0.50× 3.59
H2 over 127.5 26.2% 27.5% 15.1% 1.82× 3.64
H2 under 107.5 18.4% 18.5% 33.8% 0.55× 5.41
H2 over 135.5 17.5% 18.2% 6.5% 2.81× 5.50
H2 under 111.5 17.7% 18.2% 44.7% 0.41× 5.50
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Memphis Grizzlies leading at half time 53.7% 51.9% 52.8% 0.98× 1.93
Utah Jazz leading at half time 42.9% 42.8% 44.1% 0.97× 2.33
Level at half time 3.5% 3.8% 3.1% 1.22× 26.41
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Memphis Grizzlies +20.5 94.6% 91.1% 93.1% 0.98× 1.10
Memphis Grizzlies +18.5 92.9% 91.1% 91.5% 1.00× 1.10
Memphis Grizzlies +16.5 90.8% 91.1% 89.7% 1.02× 1.10
Memphis Grizzlies +14.5 88.3% 85.9% 87.0% 0.99× 1.16
Utah Jazz +20.5 88.4% 85.9% 89.1% 0.96× 1.16
Utah Jazz +18.5 85.4% 85.9% 86.4% 0.99× 1.16
Memphis Grizzlies +12.5 85.3% 85.9% 83.9% 1.02× 1.16
Utah Jazz +16.5 82.0% 81.1% 83.5% 0.97× 1.23
Memphis Grizzlies +10.5 81.9% 81.1% 80.3% 1.01× 1.23
Memphis Grizzlies +9.5 80.0% 76.5% 78.1% 0.98× 1.31
Memphis Grizzlies +8.5 78.0% 76.5% 75.7% 1.01× 1.31
Utah Jazz +14.5 78.1% 76.5% 80.1% 0.95× 1.31
Memphis Grizzlies +7.5 75.8% 76.5% 73.0% 1.05× 1.31
Utah Jazz +12.5 73.7% 71.6% 76.0% 0.94× 1.40
Memphis Grizzlies +6.5 73.6% 71.6% 70.6% 1.01× 1.40
Memphis Grizzlies +5.5 71.3% 71.6% 68.0% 1.05× 1.40
Memphis Grizzlies +4.5 68.8% 66.7% 65.7% 1.02× 1.50
Utah Jazz +10.5 69.0% 66.7% 71.0% 0.94× 1.50
Memphis Grizzlies +3.5 66.3% 66.7% 63.1% 1.06× 1.50
Utah Jazz +9.5 66.5% 66.7% 68.7% 0.97× 1.50
Utah Jazz +8.5 63.9% 61.9% 65.9% 0.94× 1.62
Memphis Grizzlies +2.5 63.7% 61.9% 60.5% 1.02× 1.62
Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 61.1% 61.9% 57.9% 1.07× 1.62
Utah Jazz +7.5 61.2% 61.9% 63.0% 0.98× 1.62
Utah Jazz +6.5 58.5% 57.1% 60.0% 0.95× 1.75
Memphis Grizzlies −1.5 55.5% 57.1% 53.7% 1.06× 1.75
Utah Jazz +5.5 55.7% 57.1% 57.1% 1.00× 1.75
Memphis Grizzlies −2.5 52.7% 52.4% 50.9% 1.03× 1.91
Utah Jazz +4.5 52.9% 52.4% 54.1% 0.97× 1.91
Utah Jazz +3.5 50.1% 52.4% 51.6% 1.02× 1.91
Memphis Grizzlies −3.5 49.9% 47.6% 48.4% 0.98× 2.10
Utah Jazz +2.5 47.3% 47.6% 49.1% 0.97× 2.10
Memphis Grizzlies −4.5 47.1% 47.6% 46.0% 1.04× 2.10
Utah Jazz +1.5 44.5% 42.9% 46.3% 0.93× 2.33
Memphis Grizzlies −5.5 44.3% 42.9% 42.9% 1.00× 2.33
Memphis Grizzlies −6.5 41.5% 42.9% 40.0% 1.07× 2.33
Utah Jazz −1.5 39.0% 38.1% 42.1% 0.90× 2.63
Memphis Grizzlies −7.5 38.8% 38.1% 37.0% 1.03× 2.63
Utah Jazz −2.5 36.3% 38.1% 39.5% 0.96× 2.63
Memphis Grizzlies −8.5 36.1% 38.1% 34.1% 1.12× 2.63
Utah Jazz −3.5 33.7% 33.3% 36.9% 0.90× 3.01
Memphis Grizzlies −9.5 33.5% 33.3% 31.3% 1.06× 3.01
Utah Jazz −4.5 31.2% 33.3% 34.3% 0.97× 3.01
Memphis Grizzlies −10.5 31.0% 33.3% 29.0% 1.15× 3.01
Utah Jazz −5.5 28.7% 28.4% 32.0% 0.89× 3.53
Utah Jazz −6.5 26.4% 28.4% 29.4% 0.96× 3.53
Memphis Grizzlies −12.5 26.3% 28.4% 24.0% 1.18× 3.53
Utah Jazz −7.5 24.2% 23.5% 27.0% 0.87× 4.25
Utah Jazz −8.5 22.0% 23.5% 24.3% 0.97× 4.25
Memphis Grizzlies −14.5 21.9% 23.5% 19.9% 1.19× 4.25
Utah Jazz −9.5 20.0% 23.5% 21.9% 1.08× 4.25
Utah Jazz −10.5 18.1% 18.9% 19.7% 0.96× 5.29
Memphis Grizzlies −16.5 18.0% 18.9% 16.5% 1.15× 5.29
Memphis Grizzlies −18.5 14.6% 14.1% 13.6% 1.04× 7.09
Utah Jazz −12.5 14.7% 14.1% 16.1% 0.87× 7.09
Utah Jazz −14.5 11.7% 14.1% 13.0% 1.09× 7.09
Memphis Grizzlies −20.5 11.6% 14.1% 10.9% 1.30× 7.09
Utah Jazz −16.5 9.2% 8.9% 10.3% 0.86× 11.25
Utah Jazz −18.5 7.1% 8.9% 8.5% 1.04× 11.25
Utah Jazz −20.5 5.4% 8.9% 6.9% 1.29× 11.25
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1st half highest scoring 57.2% 52.6% 53.5% 0.98× 1.90
2nd half highest scoring 42.8% 47.4% 46.5% 1.02× 2.11
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 highest scoring 28.5% 27.4% 29.2% 0.94× 3.65
Q3 highest scoring 28.3% 27.4% 27.5% 1.00× 3.65
Q2 highest scoring 26.6% 27.4% 26.3% 1.04× 3.65
Q4 highest scoring 16.6% 18.3% 17.0% 1.08× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Memphis Grizzlies at HT / Memphis Grizzlies at FT 42.6% 41.0% 40.8% 1.01× 2.44
Utah Jazz at HT / Utah Jazz at FT 29.0% 29.6% 30.9% 0.96× 3.38
Utah Jazz at HT / Memphis Grizzlies at FT 13.8% 12.2% 13.3% 0.92× 8.17
Memphis Grizzlies at HT / Utah Jazz at FT 11.1% 12.2% 12.0% 1.02× 8.18
Level at HT / Memphis Grizzlies at FT 2.0% 2.1% 1.7% 1.22× 47.76
Level at HT / Utah Jazz at FT 1.5% 2.1% 1.4% 1.49× 47.77
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Memphis Grizzlies to win 58.3% 55.2% 55.7% 0.99× 1.81
Utah Jazz to win 41.7% 44.8% 44.3% 1.01× 2.23
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Total points odd 51.4% 50.5% 51.0% 0.99× 1.98
Memphis Grizzlies odd 50.0% 50.5% 50.3% 1.00× 1.98
Utah Jazz odd 50.0% 50.5% 49.7% 1.02× 1.98
Memphis Grizzlies even 50.0% 49.5% 49.7% 1.00× 2.02
Utah Jazz even 50.0% 49.5% 50.3% 0.98× 2.02
Total points even 48.6% 49.5% 49.0% 1.01× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 93.0% 94.0% 94.8% 0.99× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 7.0% 6.0% 5.2% 1.16× 16.65
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Memphis Grizzlies to win Q1 51.3% 52.6% 51.3% 1.02× 1.90
Utah Jazz to win Q1 43.9% 42.9% 44.1% 0.97× 2.33
Q1 tied 4.8% 4.2% 4.6% 0.90× 23.94
Q1 total 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 under 69.5 84.3% 83.2% 92.7% 0.90× 1.20
Q1 over 53.5 80.6% 83.2% 68.2% 1.22× 1.20
Q1 under 71.5 84.0% 82.8% 95.1% 0.87× 1.21
Q1 over 55.5 81.3% 82.8% 59.2% 1.40× 1.21
Q1 under 68.5 73.9% 72.7% 90.7% 0.80× 1.38
Q1 over 58.5 70.4% 72.7% 44.3% 1.64× 1.38
Q1 over 56.5 69.6% 69.3% 54.6% 1.27× 1.44
Q1 under 66.5 65.7% 67.6% 86.1% 0.78× 1.48
Q1 over 60.5 61.9% 61.7% 35.5% 1.74× 1.62
Q1 under 64.5 56.7% 58.6% 80.1% 0.73× 1.71
Q1 under 61.5 52.9% 52.7% 68.5% 0.77× 1.90
Q1 over 62.5 52.7% 52.7% 27.1% 1.94× 1.90
Q1 under 63.5 52.0% 52.7% 76.8% 0.69× 1.90
Q1 over 63.5 48.0% 47.3% 23.2% 2.04× 2.11
Q1 under 62.5 47.3% 47.3% 72.9% 0.65× 2.11
Q1 over 61.5 47.2% 47.3% 31.5% 1.50× 2.11
Q1 over 64.5 43.3% 41.4% 19.9% 2.08× 2.42
Q1 under 60.5 38.1% 38.3% 64.5% 0.59× 2.61
Q1 over 66.5 34.3% 32.4% 13.9% 2.33× 3.08
Q1 under 56.5 30.4% 30.7% 45.4% 0.68× 3.25
Q1 under 58.5 29.6% 27.3% 55.7% 0.49× 3.66
Q1 over 68.5 26.1% 27.3% 9.3% 2.92× 3.66
Q1 under 55.5 18.7% 17.2% 40.8% 0.42× 5.83
Q1 over 71.5 16.0% 17.2% 4.9% 3.51× 5.83
Q1 under 53.5 19.4% 16.8% 31.8% 0.53× 5.95
Q1 over 69.5 15.7% 16.8% 7.3% 2.29× 5.96
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Memphis Grizzlies to win Q2 51.3% 51.4% 49.3% 1.04× 1.95
Utah Jazz to win Q2 44.0% 43.9% 46.2% 0.95× 2.28
Q2 tied 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% 0.98× 22.88
Q2 total 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 over 52.5 82.6% 83.1% 70.3% 1.18× 1.20
Q2 under 68.5 82.2% 83.1% 90.6% 0.92× 1.20
Q2 over 54.5 83.3% 83.0% 61.1% 1.36× 1.21
Q2 under 70.5 81.8% 83.0% 94.0% 0.88× 1.21
Q2 over 55.5 72.2% 73.0% 56.3% 1.30× 1.37
Q2 over 57.5 73.0% 72.0% 47.3% 1.52× 1.39
Q2 under 67.5 71.1% 72.0% 88.7% 0.81× 1.39
Q2 over 59.5 64.8% 60.7% 38.1% 1.59× 1.65
Q2 under 65.5 62.7% 60.7% 83.6% 0.73× 1.65
Q2 over 61.5 55.8% 58.2% 29.6% 1.96× 1.72
Q2 under 63.5 53.5% 52.7% 77.5% 0.68× 1.90
Q2 over 62.5 51.1% 52.7% 25.6% 2.06× 1.90
Q2 over 60.5 50.4% 52.2% 34.3% 1.52× 1.92
Q2 under 60.5 49.6% 47.8% 65.7% 0.73× 2.09
Q2 under 62.5 48.9% 47.3% 74.4% 0.64× 2.11
Q2 over 63.5 46.5% 47.3% 22.5% 2.11× 2.11
Q2 under 61.5 44.2% 41.8% 70.4% 0.59× 2.39
Q2 over 65.5 37.3% 39.3% 16.4% 2.40× 2.55
Q2 under 59.5 35.2% 39.3% 61.9% 0.63× 2.55
Q2 over 67.5 28.9% 28.0% 11.3% 2.48× 3.57
Q2 under 57.5 27.0% 28.0% 52.7% 0.53× 3.57
Q2 under 55.5 27.8% 27.0% 43.7% 0.62× 3.71
Q2 over 70.5 18.2% 17.0% 6.0% 2.82× 5.88
Q2 under 54.5 16.7% 17.0% 38.9% 0.44× 5.88
Q2 over 68.5 17.8% 16.9% 9.4% 1.79× 5.93
Q2 under 52.5 17.4% 16.9% 29.7% 0.57× 5.93
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Memphis Grizzlies to win Q3 51.3% 52.7% 50.9% 1.04× 1.90
Utah Jazz to win Q3 44.0% 42.3% 44.3% 0.95× 2.37
Q3 tied 4.7% 4.3% 4.9% 0.88× 23.43
Q3 total 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 under 71.5 83.7% 82.3% 94.4% 0.87× 1.22
Q3 over 55.5 82.1% 82.3% 59.9% 1.37× 1.22
Q3 under 69.5 84.1% 82.2% 91.4% 0.90× 1.22
Q3 over 53.5 81.4% 82.2% 68.3% 1.20× 1.22
Q3 over 56.5 70.5% 72.5% 55.0% 1.32× 1.38
Q3 under 68.5 73.4% 71.8% 89.3% 0.80× 1.39
Q3 over 58.5 71.3% 71.8% 45.2% 1.59× 1.39
Q3 under 66.5 65.1% 67.8% 84.7% 0.80× 1.48
Q3 over 60.5 62.8% 61.9% 36.5% 1.70× 1.61
Q3 under 64.5 56.0% 58.4% 79.2% 0.74× 1.71
Q3 under 61.5 52.1% 52.6% 67.7% 0.78× 1.90
Q3 over 62.5 53.5% 52.3% 28.1% 1.86× 1.91
Q3 under 63.5 51.2% 52.3% 75.9% 0.69× 1.91
Q3 over 63.5 48.8% 47.7% 24.1% 1.98× 2.10
Q3 under 62.5 46.5% 47.7% 71.9% 0.66× 2.10
Q3 over 61.5 47.9% 47.4% 32.3% 1.47× 2.11
Q3 over 64.5 44.0% 41.6% 20.8% 2.00× 2.40
Q3 under 60.5 37.2% 38.1% 63.5% 0.60× 2.63
Q3 over 66.5 34.9% 32.2% 15.3% 2.11× 3.10
Q3 under 58.5 28.7% 28.2% 54.8% 0.51× 3.55
Q3 over 68.5 26.6% 28.2% 10.7% 2.64× 3.55
Q3 under 56.5 29.5% 27.5% 45.0% 0.61× 3.63
Q3 under 53.5 18.6% 17.8% 31.7% 0.56× 5.62
Q3 over 69.5 15.9% 17.8% 8.6% 2.06× 5.63
Q3 under 55.5 17.9% 17.7% 40.1% 0.44× 5.66
Q3 over 71.5 16.3% 17.7% 5.6% 3.17× 5.66
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Memphis Grizzlies to win Q4 51.2% 51.4% 48.3% 1.06× 1.95
Utah Jazz to win Q4 44.0% 43.1% 46.4% 0.93× 2.32
Q4 tied 4.9% 5.2% 5.3% 0.98× 19.28
Q4 total 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 under 68.5 83.0% 82.0% 93.0% 0.88× 1.22
Q4 over 52.5 81.3% 82.0% 60.4% 1.36× 1.22
Q4 under 66.5 83.1% 81.9% 90.4% 0.91× 1.22
Q4 over 50.5 81.0% 81.9% 68.5% 1.20× 1.22
Q4 over 53.5 70.3% 72.3% 55.7% 1.30× 1.38
Q4 under 65.5 72.8% 71.5% 88.4% 0.81× 1.40
Q4 over 55.5 70.7% 71.5% 47.1% 1.52× 1.40
Q4 under 63.5 64.7% 61.4% 83.7% 0.73× 1.63
Q4 over 57.5 62.3% 61.4% 38.1% 1.61× 1.63
Q4 under 61.5 55.8% 58.4% 77.5% 0.75× 1.71
Q4 over 59.5 53.3% 52.5% 29.8% 1.76× 1.91
Q4 under 60.5 51.3% 52.5% 74.2% 0.71× 1.91
Q4 under 58.5 51.6% 52.3% 66.2% 0.79× 1.91
Q4 over 58.5 48.4% 47.7% 33.8% 1.41× 2.10
Q4 over 60.5 48.7% 47.5% 25.8% 1.84× 2.11
Q4 under 59.5 46.7% 47.5% 70.2% 0.68× 2.11
Q4 over 61.5 44.2% 41.6% 22.5% 1.85× 2.40
Q4 under 57.5 37.7% 38.6% 61.9% 0.62× 2.59
Q4 over 63.5 35.3% 38.6% 16.3% 2.37× 2.59
Q4 under 55.5 29.3% 28.5% 52.9% 0.54× 3.51
Q4 over 65.5 27.2% 28.5% 11.6% 2.46× 3.51
Q4 under 53.5 29.7% 27.7% 44.3% 0.62× 3.61
Q4 under 50.5 19.0% 18.1% 31.5% 0.57× 5.53
Q4 over 66.5 16.9% 18.1% 9.6% 1.89× 5.53
Q4 under 52.5 18.7% 18.0% 39.6% 0.45× 5.56
Q4 over 68.5 17.0% 18.0% 7.0% 2.57× 5.56
Team total 68
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Utah Jazz under 133.5 81.2% 80.7% 94.6% 0.85× 1.24
Memphis Grizzlies under 136.5 80.9% 80.7% 95.3% 0.85× 1.24
Utah Jazz under 129.5 80.6% 80.3% 90.0% 0.89× 1.25
Memphis Grizzlies over 111.5 79.7% 78.3% 61.1% 1.28× 1.28
Utah Jazz over 109.5 78.6% 78.3% 60.9% 1.28× 1.28
Utah Jazz over 113.5 79.4% 75.1% 48.0% 1.57× 1.33
Memphis Grizzlies over 116.5 79.3% 75.1% 45.3% 1.66× 1.33
Memphis Grizzlies over 114.5 72.1% 71.8% 51.4% 1.40× 1.39
Memphis Grizzlies under 128.5 71.6% 71.8% 85.5% 0.84× 1.39
Utah Jazz over 112.5 70.7% 71.8% 51.5% 1.40× 1.39
Utah Jazz under 130.5 73.6% 70.7% 91.5% 0.77× 1.41
Memphis Grizzlies under 133.5 73.2% 70.7% 92.3% 0.77× 1.41
Utah Jazz over 116.5 71.3% 70.7% 38.5% 1.84× 1.41
Memphis Grizzlies over 119.5 71.3% 70.7% 36.5% 1.94× 1.41
Utah Jazz under 128.5 67.7% 66.4% 88.6% 0.75× 1.51
Memphis Grizzlies under 131.5 67.4% 66.4% 89.8% 0.74× 1.51
Memphis Grizzlies over 121.5 65.3% 66.4% 30.4% 2.18× 1.51
Utah Jazz over 118.5 65.3% 66.4% 32.6% 2.04× 1.51
Utah Jazz under 126.5 61.4% 61.2% 85.3% 0.72× 1.63
Memphis Grizzlies under 129.5 61.1% 61.2% 87.2% 0.70× 1.63
Utah Jazz over 114.5 64.8% 61.2% 44.5% 1.38× 1.63
Memphis Grizzlies over 118.5 60.1% 61.2% 39.7% 1.54× 1.64
Memphis Grizzlies under 124.5 59.5% 57.9% 76.8% 0.75× 1.73
Utah Jazz over 120.5 58.8% 57.1% 27.3% 2.09× 1.75
Memphis Grizzlies over 123.5 58.9% 57.1% 25.6% 2.23× 1.75
Utah Jazz under 124.5 54.7% 52.3% 81.4% 0.64× 1.91
Memphis Grizzlies under 127.5 54.5% 52.3% 83.5% 0.63× 1.91
Utah Jazz under 123.5 51.4% 52.3% 79.5% 0.66× 1.91
Memphis Grizzlies under 126.5 51.1% 52.3% 81.5% 0.64× 1.91
Utah Jazz over 122.5 52.0% 52.3% 22.6% 2.31× 1.91
Memphis Grizzlies over 125.5 52.3% 52.3% 20.9% 2.50× 1.91
Memphis Grizzlies over 120.5 53.6% 52.2% 33.7% 1.55× 1.91
Memphis Grizzlies under 122.5 53.0% 52.2% 71.8% 0.73× 1.91
Utah Jazz under 119.5 51.4% 52.2% 70.3% 0.74× 1.91
Utah Jazz over 119.5 48.6% 47.8% 29.7% 1.61× 2.09
Memphis Grizzlies over 122.5 47.0% 47.8% 28.2% 1.69× 2.09
Memphis Grizzlies under 120.5 46.4% 47.8% 66.3% 0.72× 2.09
Utah Jazz over 123.5 48.6% 47.7% 20.5% 2.33× 2.09
Memphis Grizzlies over 126.5 48.9% 47.7% 18.5% 2.59× 2.09
Utah Jazz under 122.5 48.0% 47.7% 77.4% 0.62× 2.09
Memphis Grizzlies under 125.5 47.7% 47.7% 79.1% 0.60× 2.09
Utah Jazz over 124.5 45.3% 47.7% 18.6% 2.57× 2.09
Memphis Grizzlies over 127.5 45.5% 47.7% 16.5% 2.90× 2.09
Utah Jazz under 120.5 41.2% 42.9% 72.7% 0.59× 2.33
Memphis Grizzlies under 123.5 41.1% 42.9% 74.4% 0.58× 2.33
Memphis Grizzlies over 124.5 40.5% 42.1% 23.2% 1.81× 2.38
Memphis Grizzlies under 118.5 39.9% 38.8% 60.3% 0.64× 2.58
Utah Jazz under 114.5 35.2% 38.8% 55.5% 0.70× 2.58
Utah Jazz over 126.5 38.6% 38.8% 14.7% 2.64× 2.58
Memphis Grizzlies over 129.5 38.9% 38.8% 12.8% 3.02× 2.58
Memphis Grizzlies under 121.5 34.7% 33.6% 69.6% 0.48× 2.98
Utah Jazz under 118.5 34.7% 33.6% 67.4% 0.50× 2.98
Utah Jazz over 128.5 32.3% 33.6% 11.5% 2.94× 2.98
Memphis Grizzlies over 131.5 32.6% 33.6% 10.2% 3.29× 2.98
Utah Jazz under 116.5 28.7% 29.3% 61.5% 0.48× 3.42
Memphis Grizzlies under 119.5 28.7% 29.3% 63.5% 0.46× 3.42
Utah Jazz over 130.5 26.4% 29.3% 8.5% 3.45× 3.42
Memphis Grizzlies over 133.5 26.8% 29.3% 7.7% 3.78× 3.42
Utah Jazz under 112.5 29.3% 28.2% 48.5% 0.58× 3.55
Memphis Grizzlies over 128.5 28.4% 28.2% 14.5% 1.94× 3.55
Memphis Grizzlies under 114.5 27.9% 28.2% 48.6% 0.58× 3.55
Memphis Grizzlies under 116.5 20.7% 24.9% 54.7% 0.45× 4.02
Utah Jazz under 113.5 20.6% 24.9% 52.0% 0.48× 4.02
Utah Jazz under 109.5 21.4% 21.7% 39.1% 0.56× 4.60
Memphis Grizzlies under 111.5 20.3% 21.7% 38.9% 0.56× 4.61
Utah Jazz over 129.5 19.4% 19.7% 10.0% 1.98× 5.07
Memphis Grizzlies over 136.5 19.1% 19.3% 4.8% 4.06× 5.18
Utah Jazz over 133.5 18.8% 19.3% 5.4% 3.57× 5.18
Total points 56
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 220.5 points 85.9% 85.5% 64.2% 1.33× 1.17
Under 260.5 points 85.4% 85.5% 94.1% 0.91× 1.17
Under 269.5 points 86.4% 85.0% 97.6% 0.87× 1.18
Over 229.5 points 85.9% 85.0% 46.7% 1.82× 1.18
Over 225.5 points 79.0% 78.1% 54.7% 1.43× 1.28
Under 255.5 points 78.5% 78.1% 90.8% 0.86× 1.28
Under 264.5 points 79.6% 75.6% 96.1% 0.79× 1.32
Over 234.5 points 78.9% 75.6% 36.7% 2.06× 1.32
Over 230.5 points 70.6% 71.0% 44.6% 1.59× 1.41
Under 259.5 points 71.1% 70.8% 93.6% 0.76× 1.41
Over 239.5 points 70.2% 70.8% 27.5% 2.58× 1.41
Under 256.5 points 65.3% 65.9% 91.6% 0.72× 1.52
Over 233.5 points 64.8% 61.8% 38.6% 1.60× 1.62
Under 247.5 points 64.2% 61.8% 83.3% 0.74× 1.62
Over 235.5 points 60.8% 61.7% 34.7% 1.78× 1.62
Under 245.5 points 60.2% 61.7% 80.9% 0.76× 1.62
Over 242.5 points 64.4% 61.5% 23.2% 2.65× 1.63
Under 254.5 points 61.2% 61.5% 89.9% 0.68× 1.63
Over 244.5 points 60.3% 61.5% 20.5% 3.00× 1.63
Over 246.5 points 56.0% 56.5% 18.0% 3.14× 1.77
Under 252.5 points 56.9% 56.5% 88.1% 0.64× 1.77
Over 237.5 points 56.7% 56.0% 30.7% 1.82× 1.79
Under 243.5 points 56.0% 56.0% 78.2% 0.72× 1.79
Under 250.5 points 52.6% 52.3% 86.1% 0.61× 1.91
Over 248.5 points 51.7% 52.3% 15.6% 3.36× 1.91
Under 249.5 points 50.5% 52.3% 85.3% 0.61× 1.91
Under 241.5 points 51.8% 52.2% 75.5% 0.69× 1.92
Over 240.5 points 50.4% 52.2% 26.0% 2.01× 1.92
Under 240.5 points 49.6% 47.8% 74.0% 0.65× 2.09
Over 241.5 points 48.2% 47.8% 24.5% 1.95× 2.09
Over 249.5 points 49.5% 47.7% 14.7% 3.25× 2.10
Over 250.5 points 47.4% 47.7% 13.9% 3.44× 2.10
Under 248.5 points 48.3% 47.7% 84.4% 0.56× 2.10
Over 243.5 points 44.0% 44.0% 21.8% 2.02× 2.27
Under 237.5 points 43.3% 44.0% 69.3% 0.64× 2.27
Under 246.5 points 44.0% 43.5% 82.0% 0.53× 2.30
Over 252.5 points 43.1% 43.5% 11.9% 3.65× 2.30
Under 244.5 points 39.7% 38.5% 79.5% 0.48× 2.60
Over 254.5 points 38.8% 38.5% 10.1% 3.83× 2.60
Under 242.5 points 35.6% 38.5% 76.8% 0.50× 2.60
Over 245.5 points 39.8% 38.3% 19.1% 2.00× 2.61
Under 235.5 points 39.2% 38.3% 65.3% 0.59× 2.61
Over 247.5 points 35.8% 38.2% 16.7% 2.29× 2.62
Under 233.5 points 35.2% 38.2% 61.4% 0.62× 2.62
Over 256.5 points 34.7% 34.1% 8.4% 4.04× 2.93
Under 239.5 points 29.8% 29.2% 72.5% 0.40× 3.43
Over 259.5 points 28.9% 29.2% 6.4% 4.57× 3.43
Under 230.5 points 29.4% 29.0% 55.4% 0.52× 3.45
Under 234.5 points 21.1% 24.4% 63.3% 0.38× 4.10
Over 264.5 points 20.4% 24.4% 3.9% 6.25× 4.10
Over 255.5 points 21.5% 21.9% 9.2% 2.38× 4.57
Under 225.5 points 21.0% 21.9% 45.3% 0.48× 4.57
Under 229.5 points 14.1% 15.0% 53.3% 0.28× 6.68
Over 269.5 points 13.6% 15.0% 2.4% 6.22× 6.68
Over 260.5 points 14.6% 14.5% 5.9% 2.48× 6.88
Under 220.5 points 14.1% 14.5% 35.8% 0.41× 6.88
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Memphis Grizzlies to win both halves 26.6% 27.2% 25.2% 1.08× 3.68
Utah Jazz to win both halves 16.3% 18.9% 17.8% 1.06× 5.30
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Memphis Grizzlies by 1-5 14.1% 12.3% 12.8% 0.96× 8.11
Memphis Grizzlies by 6-10 13.3% 12.3% 13.9% 0.88× 8.11
Utah Jazz by 1-5 12.9% 12.3% 12.3% 1.01× 8.11
Utah Jazz by 6-10 10.6% 12.3% 12.3% 1.00× 8.11
Memphis Grizzlies by 11-15 11.1% 12.3% 10.8% 1.14× 8.11
Memphis Grizzlies by 16-20 8.3% 7.5% 7.3% 1.02× 13.40
Utah Jazz by 11-15 7.7% 7.5% 8.0% 0.93× 13.40
Memphis Grizzlies by 26+ 6.2% 7.5% 6.2% 1.21× 13.40
Memphis Grizzlies by 21-25 5.5% 7.5% 4.7% 1.58× 13.40
Utah Jazz by 16-20 5.0% 2.0% 4.9% 0.42× 49.28
Utah Jazz by 21-25 2.9% 2.0% 3.0% 0.67× 49.30
Utah Jazz by 26+ 2.5% 2.0% 3.9% 0.53× 49.31
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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