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Memphis Tigers v Alabama Crimson Tide — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 12 November 2026 · NCAAW · 2027

NCAAW results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Memphis Tigers win
2.3%
Draw
0.0%
Alabama Crimson Tide win
97.7%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 55.02–77.15 55-77 0% 52% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Memphis Tigers to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 1.8% 0.20× 283.36
Memphis Tigers to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.64× 283.36
Memphis Tigers to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 2.91× 283.36
Memphis Tigers to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 7.58× 283.36
Alabama Crimson Tide to score 100+ 0.8% 0.4% 0.5% 0.72× 283.19
Alabama Crimson Tide to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.74× 283.35
Alabama Crimson Tide to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 18.95× 283.36
Alabama Crimson Tide to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 37.89× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 6.32× 283.36
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alabama Crimson Tide to win H1 87.0% 88.7% 39.9% 2.22× 1.13
Memphis Tigers to win H1 10.7% 10.7% 56.4% 0.19× 9.31
H1 tied 2.3% 3.9% 3.7% 1.05× 25.87
H1 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 over 51.5 89.3% 87.7% 82.0% 1.07× 1.14
H1 under 75.5 88.2% 87.7% 88.8% 0.99× 1.14
H1 over 55.5 79.7% 77.4% 71.0% 1.09× 1.29
H1 under 71.5 78.4% 77.4% 81.4% 0.95× 1.29
H1 over 58.5 69.9% 67.4% 61.4% 1.10× 1.48
H1 under 68.5 68.7% 67.4% 73.5% 0.92× 1.48
H1 over 60.5 62.5% 62.7% 53.9% 1.16× 1.59
H1 under 66.5 61.3% 62.7% 67.1% 0.93× 1.59
H1 over 62.5 54.6% 52.6% 46.3% 1.14× 1.90
H1 under 64.5 53.4% 52.6% 60.7% 0.87× 1.90
H1 over 63.5 50.6% 52.6% 42.9% 1.23× 1.90
H1 under 63.5 49.4% 47.4% 57.1% 0.83× 2.11
H1 over 64.5 46.6% 47.4% 39.3% 1.21× 2.11
H1 under 62.5 45.4% 47.4% 53.7% 0.88× 2.11
H1 over 66.5 38.7% 37.3% 32.9% 1.13× 2.68
H1 under 60.5 37.5% 37.3% 46.1% 0.81× 2.68
H1 over 68.5 31.3% 32.6% 26.5% 1.23× 3.07
H1 under 58.5 30.1% 32.6% 38.6% 0.84× 3.07
H1 over 71.5 21.6% 22.6% 18.6% 1.22× 4.43
H1 under 55.5 20.3% 22.6% 29.0% 0.78× 4.43
H1 over 75.5 11.8% 12.3% 11.2% 1.10× 8.14
H1 under 51.5 10.7% 12.3% 18.0% 0.68× 8.14
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alabama Crimson Tide to win H2 88.4% 84.2% 40.6% 2.08× 1.19
Memphis Tigers to win H2 9.6% 11.4% 56.0% 0.20× 8.81
H2 tied 2.0% 3.9% 3.4% 1.16× 25.37
H2 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 82.5 88.9% 85.2% 87.4% 0.97× 1.17
H2 over 58.5 86.3% 85.2% 79.6% 1.07× 1.17
H2 under 78.5 80.0% 81.8% 80.1% 1.02× 1.22
H2 over 62.5 75.8% 75.8% 68.3% 1.11× 1.32
H2 under 75.5 71.1% 72.2% 73.0% 0.99× 1.39
H2 over 65.5 65.8% 66.4% 58.8% 1.13× 1.51
H2 under 73.5 64.3% 61.6% 67.1% 0.92× 1.62
H2 over 67.5 58.4% 57.3% 52.1% 1.10× 1.74
H2 under 71.5 56.9% 57.3% 61.1% 0.94× 1.74
H2 under 70.5 53.1% 52.4% 57.8% 0.91× 1.91
H2 over 69.5 50.8% 52.4% 45.2% 1.16× 1.91
H2 under 69.5 49.2% 47.6% 54.8% 0.87× 2.10
H2 over 70.5 46.9% 47.6% 42.2% 1.13× 2.10
H2 over 71.5 43.1% 42.7% 38.9% 1.10× 2.34
H2 under 67.5 41.6% 42.7% 47.9% 0.89× 2.34
H2 over 73.5 35.7% 38.4% 32.9% 1.17× 2.61
H2 under 65.5 34.2% 33.6% 41.2% 0.82× 2.97
H2 over 75.5 28.9% 27.8% 27.0% 1.03× 3.59
H2 under 62.5 24.2% 24.2% 31.7% 0.76× 4.13
H2 over 78.5 20.0% 18.2% 19.9% 0.92× 5.50
H2 under 58.5 13.7% 14.8% 20.4% 0.73× 6.76
H2 over 82.5 11.1% 14.8% 12.6% 1.17× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alabama Crimson Tide leading at half time 87.0% 89.4% 39.9% 2.24× 1.12
Memphis Tigers leading at half time 10.7% 10.2% 56.4% 0.18× 9.76
Level at half time 2.3% 3.8% 3.7% 1.03× 26.43
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alabama Crimson Tide +6.5 99.4% 97.4% 52.4% 1.86× 1.03
Alabama Crimson Tide +7.5 99.6% 97.4% 55.2% 1.76× 1.03
Alabama Crimson Tide +8.5 99.7% 97.4% 58.0% 1.68× 1.03
Alabama Crimson Tide +9.5 99.7% 97.4% 60.7% 1.61× 1.03
Alabama Crimson Tide +10.5 99.8% 97.4% 63.2% 1.54× 1.03
Alabama Crimson Tide +12.5 99.9% 97.4% 67.9% 1.44× 1.03
Alabama Crimson Tide +14.5 99.9% 97.4% 72.1% 1.35× 1.03
Alabama Crimson Tide +16.5 100.0% 97.4% 75.7% 1.29× 1.03
Alabama Crimson Tide +18.5 100.0% 97.4% 79.3% 1.23× 1.03
Alabama Crimson Tide +20.5 100.0% 97.4% 82.0% 1.19× 1.03
Alabama Crimson Tide +1.5 98.1% 97.4% 41.3% 2.36× 1.03
Alabama Crimson Tide −1.5 97.0% 97.4% 38.8% 2.51× 1.03
Alabama Crimson Tide +2.5 98.5% 97.4% 43.3% 2.25× 1.03
Alabama Crimson Tide −2.5 96.2% 97.4% 36.7% 2.66× 1.03
Alabama Crimson Tide +3.5 98.8% 97.4% 45.8% 2.13× 1.03
Alabama Crimson Tide +4.5 99.0% 97.4% 47.8% 2.04× 1.03
Alabama Crimson Tide +5.5 99.3% 97.4% 50.3% 1.94× 1.03
Alabama Crimson Tide −3.5 95.4% 97.4% 34.3% 2.84× 1.03
Alabama Crimson Tide −4.5 94.3% 91.1% 32.2% 2.83× 1.10
Alabama Crimson Tide −5.5 93.2% 91.1% 29.9% 3.05× 1.10
Alabama Crimson Tide −6.5 91.8% 91.1% 27.7% 3.29× 1.10
Alabama Crimson Tide −7.5 90.3% 91.1% 25.5% 3.58× 1.10
Alabama Crimson Tide −8.5 88.6% 85.9% 23.5% 3.65× 1.16
Alabama Crimson Tide −9.5 86.7% 85.9% 21.3% 4.03× 1.16
Alabama Crimson Tide −10.5 84.6% 81.1% 19.6% 4.14× 1.23
Alabama Crimson Tide −12.5 79.8% 76.5% 16.2% 4.71× 1.31
Alabama Crimson Tide −14.5 74.2% 71.6% 13.3% 5.40× 1.40
Alabama Crimson Tide −16.5 67.9% 66.7% 10.9% 6.14× 1.50
Alabama Crimson Tide −18.5 61.1% 61.9% 8.9% 6.94× 1.62
Alabama Crimson Tide −20.5 53.9% 52.4% 7.3% 7.20× 1.91
Memphis Tigers +20.5 46.1% 47.6% 92.7% 0.51× 2.10
Memphis Tigers +18.5 38.9% 38.1% 91.1% 0.42× 2.63
Memphis Tigers +16.5 32.1% 33.3% 89.1% 0.37× 3.01
Memphis Tigers +14.5 25.8% 28.4% 86.7% 0.33× 3.53
Memphis Tigers +12.5 20.2% 23.5% 83.8% 0.28× 4.25
Memphis Tigers +10.5 15.4% 18.9% 80.4% 0.24× 5.30
Memphis Tigers +9.5 13.3% 14.1% 78.7% 0.18× 7.09
Memphis Tigers +8.5 11.4% 14.1% 76.5% 0.18× 7.09
Memphis Tigers +6.5 8.2% 8.9% 72.3% 0.12× 11.25
Memphis Tigers +7.5 9.7% 8.9% 74.5% 0.12× 11.25
Memphis Tigers +5.5 6.8% 8.9% 70.1% 0.13× 11.25
Memphis Tigers +4.5 5.7% 8.9% 67.8% 0.13× 11.25
Memphis Tigers +3.5 4.6% 2.6% 65.7% 0.04× 38.72
Memphis Tigers −1.5 1.9% 2.6% 58.7% 0.04× 38.73
Memphis Tigers +1.5 3.0% 2.6% 61.2% 0.04× 38.73
Memphis Tigers −2.5 1.5% 2.6% 56.7% 0.05× 38.73
Memphis Tigers +2.5 3.8% 2.6% 63.3% 0.04× 38.73
Memphis Tigers −3.5 1.2% 2.6% 54.2% 0.05× 38.74
Memphis Tigers −4.5 1.0% 2.6% 52.2% 0.05× 38.74
Memphis Tigers −5.5 0.7% 2.6% 49.7% 0.05× 38.74
Memphis Tigers −6.5 0.6% 2.6% 47.6% 0.05× 38.74
Memphis Tigers −7.5 0.4% 2.6% 44.8% 0.06× 38.74
Memphis Tigers −8.5 0.3% 2.6% 42.0% 0.06× 38.74
Memphis Tigers −9.5 0.3% 2.6% 39.3% 0.07× 38.74
Memphis Tigers −10.5 0.2% 2.6% 36.8% 0.07× 38.74
Memphis Tigers −12.5 0.1% 2.6% 32.1% 0.08× 38.74
Memphis Tigers −14.5 0.1% 2.6% 27.9% 0.09× 38.74
Memphis Tigers −16.5 0.0% 2.6% 24.3% 0.11× 38.74
Memphis Tigers −18.5 0.0% 2.6% 20.7% 0.12× 38.74
Memphis Tigers −20.5 0.0% 2.6% 18.0% 0.14× 38.74
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 72.6% 67.1% 66.7% 1.01× 1.49
1st half highest scoring 27.4% 32.9% 33.3% 0.99× 3.04
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 highest scoring 34.6% 31.9% 31.2% 1.02× 3.14
Q3 highest scoring 32.9% 31.9% 31.3% 1.02× 3.14
Q1 highest scoring 17.0% 18.3% 19.6% 0.94× 5.46
Q2 highest scoring 15.5% 18.3% 17.9% 1.02× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alabama Crimson Tide at HT / Alabama Crimson Tide at FT 86.1% 89.1% 30.1% 2.95× 1.12
Memphis Tigers at HT / Alabama Crimson Tide at FT 9.4% 8.3% 8.2% 1.01× 12.08
Level at HT / Alabama Crimson Tide at FT 2.2% 2.1% 1.8% 1.20× 47.75
Memphis Tigers at HT / Memphis Tigers at FT 1.4% 2.1% 48.3% 0.04× 47.77
Level at HT / Memphis Tigers at FT 0.1% 2.1% 1.9% 1.09× 47.79
Alabama Crimson Tide at HT / Memphis Tigers at FT 0.8% 2.1% 9.8% 0.21× 47.78
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alabama Crimson Tide to win 97.7% 97.5% 40.1% 2.43× 1.03
Memphis Tigers to win 2.3% 2.5% 59.9% 0.04× 39.30
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Memphis Tigers even 50.3% 50.5% 49.4% 1.02× 1.98
Alabama Crimson Tide even 50.0% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
Total points odd 50.3% 50.5% 51.5% 0.98× 1.98
Memphis Tigers odd 49.7% 49.5% 50.6% 0.98× 2.02
Alabama Crimson Tide odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
Total points even 49.7% 49.5% 48.5% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 98.1% 97.0% 95.6% 1.02× 1.03
Match to go to overtime 1.9% 3.0% 4.4% 0.67× 33.53
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alabama Crimson Tide to win Q1 76.4% 79.8% 40.4% 1.98× 1.25
Memphis Tigers to win Q1 19.1% 15.8% 54.7% 0.29× 6.34
Q1 tied 4.5% 4.2% 4.9% 0.85× 23.95
Q1 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 under 40.5 89.7% 87.4% 89.9% 0.97× 1.14
Q1 over 24.5 87.1% 87.4% 81.8% 1.07× 1.14
Q1 under 37.5 79.4% 76.9% 81.6% 0.94× 1.30
Q1 over 27.5 75.1% 76.9% 67.7% 1.14× 1.30
Q1 under 35.5 69.9% 67.6% 73.2% 0.92× 1.48
Q1 over 29.5 64.7% 61.7% 56.9% 1.09× 1.62
Q1 under 33.5 58.8% 58.6% 64.0% 0.92× 1.71
Q1 over 31.5 53.1% 52.7% 46.0% 1.14× 1.90
Q1 under 32.5 52.9% 52.7% 59.1% 0.89× 1.90
Q1 over 32.5 47.1% 47.3% 40.9% 1.16× 2.11
Q1 under 31.5 46.9% 47.3% 54.0% 0.88× 2.11
Q1 over 33.5 41.2% 41.4% 36.0% 1.15× 2.42
Q1 under 29.5 35.3% 38.3% 43.1% 0.89× 2.61
Q1 over 35.5 30.1% 32.4% 26.8% 1.21× 3.08
Q1 under 27.5 24.9% 23.1% 32.3% 0.72× 4.33
Q1 over 37.5 20.6% 23.1% 18.4% 1.25× 4.33
Q1 under 24.5 12.9% 12.6% 18.2% 0.69× 7.95
Q1 over 40.5 10.3% 12.6% 10.1% 1.24× 7.95
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alabama Crimson Tide to win Q2 75.8% 80.6% 41.5% 1.94× 1.24
Memphis Tigers to win Q2 19.7% 14.7% 52.9% 0.28× 6.79
Q2 tied 4.5% 4.4% 5.7% 0.77× 22.89
Q2 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 over 23.5 89.1% 87.3% 84.6% 1.03× 1.15
Q2 under 39.5 87.8% 87.3% 88.4% 0.99× 1.15
Q2 over 26.5 78.2% 76.8% 71.6% 1.07× 1.30
Q2 under 36.5 76.4% 76.8% 78.7% 0.98× 1.30
Q2 over 28.5 68.3% 67.4% 61.2% 1.10× 1.49
Q2 under 34.5 66.3% 67.4% 70.1% 0.96× 1.49
Q2 over 30.5 57.0% 58.2% 49.9% 1.17× 1.72
Q2 under 32.5 54.9% 52.7% 60.8% 0.87× 1.90
Q2 over 31.5 51.1% 52.7% 44.3% 1.19× 1.90
Q2 under 31.5 48.9% 47.3% 55.7% 0.85× 2.11
Q2 over 32.5 45.1% 47.3% 39.2% 1.21× 2.11
Q2 under 30.5 43.0% 41.8% 50.1% 0.84× 2.39
Q2 over 34.5 33.7% 32.6% 29.9% 1.09× 3.06
Q2 under 28.5 31.7% 32.6% 38.8% 0.84× 3.06
Q2 over 36.5 23.6% 23.2% 21.3% 1.09× 4.31
Q2 under 26.5 21.8% 23.2% 28.4% 0.82× 4.31
Q2 over 39.5 12.2% 12.7% 11.6% 1.09× 7.89
Q2 under 23.5 10.9% 12.7% 15.4% 0.82× 7.90
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alabama Crimson Tide to win Q3 77.9% 81.5% 41.8% 1.95× 1.23
Memphis Tigers to win Q3 17.9% 15.1% 53.3% 0.28× 6.62
Q3 tied 4.2% 4.3% 4.9% 0.86× 23.44
Q3 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 under 43.5 89.6% 87.2% 90.2% 0.97× 1.15
Q3 over 27.5 85.9% 87.2% 80.0% 1.09× 1.15
Q3 under 40.5 79.5% 77.3% 81.9% 0.94× 1.29
Q3 over 30.5 73.7% 71.8% 66.8% 1.07× 1.39
Q3 under 38.5 70.3% 71.8% 73.9% 0.97× 1.39
Q3 over 32.5 63.4% 62.0% 56.1% 1.10× 1.61
Q3 under 36.5 59.6% 58.4% 64.6% 0.90× 1.71
Q3 under 35.5 53.8% 52.3% 59.7% 0.88× 1.91
Q3 over 34.5 52.0% 52.3% 45.4% 1.15× 1.91
Q3 under 34.5 48.0% 47.7% 54.6% 0.87× 2.10
Q3 over 35.5 46.2% 47.7% 40.3% 1.18× 2.10
Q3 over 36.5 40.4% 41.6% 35.4% 1.17× 2.40
Q3 under 32.5 36.6% 38.0% 43.9% 0.87× 2.63
Q3 over 38.5 29.7% 28.2% 26.1% 1.08× 3.55
Q3 under 30.5 26.3% 28.2% 33.2% 0.85× 3.55
Q3 over 40.5 20.5% 22.7% 18.1% 1.25× 4.40
Q3 under 27.5 14.1% 12.8% 20.0% 0.64× 7.83
Q3 over 43.5 10.4% 12.8% 9.8% 1.30× 7.83
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alabama Crimson Tide to win Q4 77.5% 71.5% 41.5% 1.72× 1.40
Memphis Tigers to win Q4 18.3% 22.7% 52.8% 0.43× 4.41
Q4 tied 4.2% 5.2% 5.7% 0.91× 19.30
Q4 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 under 43.5 88.1% 85.6% 88.6% 0.97× 1.17
Q4 over 27.5 84.7% 82.0% 78.9% 1.04× 1.22
Q4 under 40.5 77.9% 76.9% 80.6% 0.95× 1.30
Q4 over 30.5 72.9% 71.5% 66.3% 1.08× 1.40
Q4 under 38.5 68.9% 67.4% 73.1% 0.92× 1.48
Q4 over 32.5 63.0% 61.4% 55.4% 1.11× 1.63
Q4 under 36.5 58.7% 58.4% 64.3% 0.91× 1.71
Q4 under 35.5 53.2% 52.5% 59.4% 0.88× 1.91
Q4 over 34.5 52.2% 52.5% 45.6% 1.15× 1.91
Q4 under 34.5 47.8% 47.5% 54.4% 0.87× 2.11
Q4 over 35.5 46.8% 47.5% 40.6% 1.17× 2.11
Q4 over 36.5 41.3% 41.6% 35.7% 1.17× 2.40
Q4 under 32.5 37.0% 38.6% 44.6% 0.87× 2.59
Q4 over 38.5 31.1% 32.6% 26.9% 1.21× 3.07
Q4 under 30.5 27.2% 28.5% 33.7% 0.84× 3.51
Q4 over 40.5 22.1% 23.1% 19.4% 1.19× 4.33
Q4 under 27.5 15.3% 18.0% 21.1% 0.85× 5.56
Q4 over 43.5 11.9% 14.4% 11.4% 1.26× 6.95
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Memphis Tigers under 66.5 88.1% 83.9% 48.2% 1.74× 1.19
Alabama Crimson Tide over 67.5 86.2% 83.9% 34.4% 2.44× 1.19
Alabama Crimson Tide under 87.5 86.2% 83.9% 96.6% 0.87× 1.19
Memphis Tigers over 46.5 85.8% 83.9% 95.2% 0.88× 1.19
Memphis Tigers under 63.5 80.5% 80.7% 38.5% 2.09× 1.24
Alabama Crimson Tide over 70.5 77.7% 75.1% 26.3% 2.86× 1.33
Alabama Crimson Tide under 84.5 77.7% 75.1% 94.7% 0.79× 1.33
Memphis Tigers over 49.5 75.7% 75.1% 92.1% 0.82× 1.33
Memphis Tigers under 61.5 74.1% 70.7% 33.1% 2.14× 1.41
Alabama Crimson Tide over 72.5 70.7% 70.7% 21.8% 3.24× 1.41
Alabama Crimson Tide under 82.5 70.7% 70.7% 93.0% 0.76× 1.41
Memphis Tigers over 51.5 67.8% 66.4% 89.3% 0.74× 1.51
Memphis Tigers under 59.5 66.6% 66.4% 27.8% 2.38× 1.51
Alabama Crimson Tide over 74.5 62.8% 61.2% 17.7% 3.45× 1.63
Alabama Crimson Tide under 80.5 62.8% 61.2% 91.0% 0.67× 1.63
Memphis Tigers over 53.5 59.2% 57.1% 85.8% 0.67× 1.75
Memphis Tigers under 57.5 58.3% 57.1% 22.8% 2.50× 1.75
Memphis Tigers under 56.5 54.0% 52.3% 20.5% 2.55× 1.91
Alabama Crimson Tide over 76.5 54.3% 52.3% 14.2% 3.68× 1.91
Alabama Crimson Tide under 78.5 54.4% 52.3% 88.3% 0.59× 1.91
Memphis Tigers over 55.5 50.4% 52.3% 81.6% 0.64× 1.91
Alabama Crimson Tide under 77.5 50.0% 52.3% 87.2% 0.60× 1.91
Memphis Tigers under 55.5 49.6% 47.7% 18.5% 2.59× 2.09
Alabama Crimson Tide over 77.5 50.0% 47.7% 12.8% 3.73× 2.09
Memphis Tigers over 56.5 46.0% 47.7% 79.5% 0.60× 2.09
Alabama Crimson Tide under 76.5 45.7% 47.7% 85.8% 0.56× 2.09
Alabama Crimson Tide over 78.5 45.6% 47.7% 11.7% 4.09× 2.09
Memphis Tigers over 57.5 41.7% 42.9% 77.2% 0.56× 2.33
Memphis Tigers under 53.5 40.8% 42.9% 14.2% 3.02× 2.33
Alabama Crimson Tide under 74.5 37.2% 38.8% 82.3% 0.47× 2.58
Alabama Crimson Tide over 80.5 37.2% 38.8% 9.0% 4.31× 2.58
Memphis Tigers over 59.5 33.4% 33.6% 72.2% 0.47× 2.98
Memphis Tigers under 51.5 32.2% 33.6% 10.7% 3.13× 2.98
Alabama Crimson Tide under 72.5 29.3% 29.3% 78.2% 0.37× 3.42
Alabama Crimson Tide over 82.5 29.3% 29.3% 7.0% 4.20× 3.42
Memphis Tigers over 61.5 25.9% 29.3% 66.9% 0.44× 3.42
Memphis Tigers under 49.5 24.3% 24.9% 7.9% 3.15× 4.02
Alabama Crimson Tide under 70.5 22.3% 24.9% 73.7% 0.34× 4.02
Alabama Crimson Tide over 84.5 22.3% 24.9% 5.3% 4.67× 4.02
Memphis Tigers over 63.5 19.5% 19.3% 61.5% 0.31× 5.18
Memphis Tigers under 46.5 14.2% 16.1% 4.8% 3.36× 6.21
Alabama Crimson Tide under 67.5 13.8% 16.1% 65.6% 0.25× 6.21
Alabama Crimson Tide over 87.5 13.8% 16.1% 3.4% 4.80× 6.21
Memphis Tigers over 66.5 11.9% 16.1% 51.8% 0.31× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 113.5 points 92.6% 88.8% 81.9% 1.08× 1.13
Under 153.5 points 91.7% 88.8% 89.0% 1.00× 1.13
Over 118.5 points 85.5% 85.0% 73.6% 1.16× 1.18
Under 148.5 points 85.3% 85.0% 83.7% 1.02× 1.18
Under 143.5 points 76.1% 75.6% 76.7% 0.99× 1.32
Over 123.5 points 75.4% 75.6% 63.3% 1.19× 1.32
Under 140.5 points 69.3% 65.9% 71.8% 0.92× 1.52
Over 126.5 points 68.1% 65.9% 57.4% 1.15× 1.52
Under 138.5 points 64.4% 61.5% 67.9% 0.91× 1.63
Over 128.5 points 62.8% 61.5% 52.8% 1.16× 1.63
Under 136.5 points 59.2% 56.5% 64.2% 0.88× 1.77
Over 130.5 points 57.4% 56.5% 48.3% 1.17× 1.77
Under 134.5 points 53.7% 52.3% 60.2% 0.87× 1.91
Over 132.5 points 51.8% 52.3% 44.0% 1.19× 1.91
Under 133.5 points 51.0% 52.3% 58.0% 0.90× 1.91
Over 133.5 points 49.0% 47.7% 42.0% 1.14× 2.10
Under 132.5 points 48.2% 47.7% 56.0% 0.85× 2.10
Over 134.5 points 46.3% 47.7% 39.8% 1.20× 2.10
Under 130.5 points 42.7% 43.5% 51.7% 0.84× 2.30
Over 136.5 points 40.8% 43.5% 35.8% 1.22× 2.30
Under 128.5 points 37.2% 38.5% 47.2% 0.82× 2.60
Over 138.5 points 35.6% 38.5% 32.1% 1.20× 2.60
Under 126.5 points 31.9% 34.1% 42.6% 0.80× 2.93
Over 140.5 points 30.7% 34.1% 28.2% 1.21× 2.93
Under 123.5 points 24.6% 24.4% 36.7% 0.66× 4.10
Over 143.5 points 23.9% 24.4% 23.3% 1.05× 4.10
Over 148.5 points 14.7% 15.0% 16.3% 0.92× 6.68
Under 118.5 points 14.5% 15.0% 26.4% 0.57× 6.68
Over 153.5 points 8.3% 11.2% 11.0% 1.02× 8.96
Under 113.5 points 7.4% 11.2% 18.1% 0.62× 8.97
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alabama Crimson Tide to win both halves 76.1% 77.0% 20.4% 3.78× 1.30
Memphis Tigers to win both halves 0.5% 3.0% 36.0% 0.08× 33.82
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Alabama Crimson Tide by 26+ 35.7% 39.6% 4.6% 8.59× 2.52
Alabama Crimson Tide by 21-25 18.2% 16.8% 2.7% 6.27× 5.97
Alabama Crimson Tide by 16-20 17.3% 16.8% 4.8% 3.53× 5.97
Alabama Crimson Tide by 11-15 13.4% 12.3% 7.6% 1.62× 8.11
Alabama Crimson Tide by 6-10 8.6% 7.5% 10.3% 0.72× 13.40
Alabama Crimson Tide by 1-5 4.5% 2.0% 10.2% 0.20× 49.29
Memphis Tigers by 1-5 1.6% 2.0% 10.2% 0.20× 49.31
Memphis Tigers by 6-10 0.5% 2.0% 12.9% 0.16× 49.32
Memphis Tigers by 11-15 0.2% 2.0% 10.8% 0.19× 49.33
Memphis Tigers by 16-20 0.0% 2.0% 8.0% 0.25× 49.33
Memphis Tigers by 21-25 0.0% 2.0% 5.4% 0.38× 49.33
Memphis Tigers by 26+ 0.0% 2.0% 12.6% 0.16× 49.33
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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