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Mercer Bears v Charleston Southern Buccaneers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 21 November 2026 · NCAAB · 2027

NCAAB results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Mercer Bears win
69.6%
Draw
0.0%
Charleston Southern Buccaneers win
30.4%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 86.05–80.73 86-81 0% 48% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mercer Bears to score 100+ 8.6% 8.8% 3.4% 2.56× 11.36
Charleston Southern Buccaneers to score 100+ 2.5% 0.4% 1.1% 0.33× 282.87
Mercer Bears to score 110+ 0.8% 0.4% 0.7% 0.52× 283.19
Mercer Bears to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.87× 283.35
Mercer Bears to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 19.47× 283.36
Charleston Southern Buccaneers to score 110+ 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 1.95× 283.33
Charleston Southern Buccaneers to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 12.98× 283.36
Charleston Southern Buccaneers to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 38.95× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.87× 283.22
H1 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mercer Bears to win H1 59.6% 57.3% 57.9% 0.99× 1.75
Mercer Bears to win H1 59.6% 57.3% 57.9% 0.99× 1.75
Charleston Southern Buccaneers to win H1 36.0% 37.8% 38.2% 0.99× 2.64
Charleston Southern Buccaneers to win H1 36.1% 37.8% 38.2% 0.99× 2.64
H1 tied 4.4% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.86
H1 tied 4.4% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.86
H1 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 91.5 88.2% 87.7% 97.6% 0.90× 1.14
H1 over 67.5 85.7% 87.7% 54.4% 1.61× 1.14
H1 under 87.5 79.9% 77.4% 95.0% 0.82× 1.29
H1 under 87.5 79.1% 77.4% 95.0% 0.82× 1.29
H1 over 71.5 76.3% 77.4% 40.0% 1.94× 1.29
H1 over 71.5 75.6% 77.4% 40.0% 1.94× 1.29
H1 under 84.5 70.7% 73.5% 91.7% 0.80× 1.36
H1 under 84.5 70.2% 73.5% 91.7% 0.80× 1.36
H1 over 74.5 66.4% 67.4% 30.4% 2.22× 1.48
H1 over 74.5 65.9% 67.4% 30.4% 2.22× 1.48
H1 under 82.5 63.8% 62.7% 88.9% 0.71× 1.59
H1 under 82.5 63.3% 62.7% 88.9% 0.71× 1.59
H1 over 76.5 59.1% 58.2% 24.5% 2.38× 1.72
H1 over 76.5 58.8% 58.2% 24.5% 2.38× 1.72
H1 under 80.5 56.3% 58.2% 85.2% 0.68× 1.72
H1 under 80.5 56.1% 58.2% 85.2% 0.68× 1.72
H1 under 79.5 52.4% 52.6% 83.1% 0.63× 1.90
H1 under 79.5 52.4% 52.6% 83.1% 0.63× 1.90
H1 over 78.5 51.4% 52.6% 19.3% 2.73× 1.90
H1 over 78.5 51.4% 52.6% 19.3% 2.73× 1.90
H1 under 78.5 48.6% 47.4% 80.7% 0.59× 2.11
H1 under 78.5 48.6% 47.4% 80.7% 0.59× 2.11
H1 over 79.5 47.6% 47.4% 16.9% 2.80× 2.11
H1 over 79.5 47.6% 47.4% 16.9% 2.80× 2.11
H1 over 80.5 43.7% 41.8% 14.8% 2.82× 2.39
H1 over 80.5 43.9% 41.8% 14.8% 2.82× 2.39
H1 under 76.5 40.9% 41.8% 75.5% 0.55× 2.39
H1 under 76.5 41.2% 41.8% 75.5% 0.55× 2.39
H1 over 82.5 36.7% 37.3% 11.1% 3.35× 2.68
H1 over 82.5 36.2% 37.3% 11.1% 3.35× 2.68
H1 under 74.5 33.6% 32.6% 69.6% 0.47× 3.07
H1 under 74.5 34.1% 32.6% 69.6% 0.47× 3.07
H1 over 84.5 29.8% 26.5% 8.3% 3.20× 3.77
H1 over 84.5 29.3% 26.5% 8.3% 3.20× 3.77
H1 under 71.5 24.4% 22.6% 60.0% 0.38× 4.43
H1 under 71.5 23.7% 22.6% 60.0% 0.38× 4.43
H1 over 87.5 20.9% 22.6% 5.0% 4.47× 4.43
H1 over 87.5 20.1% 22.6% 5.0% 4.47× 4.43
H1 under 67.5 14.3% 12.3% 45.6% 0.27× 8.13
H1 over 91.5 11.8% 12.3% 2.4% 5.18× 8.14
H2 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mercer Bears to win H2 60.5% 58.8% 56.9% 1.03× 1.70
Mercer Bears to win H2 60.5% 58.8% 57.5% 1.02× 1.70
Charleston Southern Buccaneers to win H2 35.4% 41.2% 38.5% 1.07× 2.43
Charleston Southern Buccaneers to win H2 35.3% 41.2% 38.9% 1.06× 2.43
H2 tied 4.2% 3.9% 4.2% 0.95× 25.35
H2 tied 4.2% 3.9% 4.1% 0.97× 25.35
H2 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 100.5 86.8% 85.2% 94.8% 0.90× 1.17
H2 over 76.5 84.4% 81.8% 53.4% 1.53× 1.22
H2 under 96.5 78.4% 75.8% 94.1% 0.81× 1.32
H2 under 96.5 77.7% 75.8% 91.4% 0.83× 1.32
H2 over 80.5 75.0% 75.8% 37.1% 2.04× 1.32
H2 over 80.5 74.4% 72.2% 40.8% 1.77× 1.39
H2 under 93.5 69.6% 66.4% 91.2% 0.73× 1.51
H2 under 93.5 69.0% 66.4% 88.2% 0.75× 1.51
H2 over 83.5 65.6% 66.4% 28.4% 2.34× 1.51
H2 over 83.5 65.2% 66.4% 32.0% 2.07× 1.51
H2 under 91.5 62.9% 61.6% 88.7% 0.69× 1.62
H2 under 91.5 62.5% 61.6% 85.5% 0.72× 1.62
H2 over 85.5 58.6% 57.3% 23.2% 2.48× 1.74
H2 over 85.5 58.5% 57.3% 26.7% 2.15× 1.74
H2 under 89.5 55.8% 57.3% 85.1% 0.67× 1.74
H2 under 89.5 55.6% 57.3% 81.8% 0.70× 1.74
H2 over 87.5 51.4% 52.4% 18.8% 2.79× 1.91
H2 under 88.5 52.2% 52.4% 83.3% 0.63× 1.91
H2 over 87.5 51.5% 52.4% 22.3% 2.35× 1.91
H2 under 88.5 52.1% 52.4% 79.8% 0.66× 1.91
H2 under 87.5 48.6% 47.6% 81.2% 0.59× 2.10
H2 over 88.5 47.8% 47.6% 16.7% 2.85× 2.10
H2 under 87.5 48.5% 47.6% 77.7% 0.61× 2.10
H2 over 88.5 47.9% 47.6% 20.2% 2.36× 2.10
H2 over 89.5 44.2% 42.7% 14.9% 2.86× 2.34
H2 over 89.5 44.4% 42.7% 18.2% 2.34× 2.34
H2 under 85.5 41.5% 42.7% 73.3% 0.58× 2.34
H2 under 85.5 41.4% 42.7% 76.8% 0.56× 2.34
H2 over 91.5 37.1% 38.4% 11.3% 3.40× 2.61
H2 over 91.5 37.5% 38.4% 14.5% 2.66× 2.61
H2 under 83.5 34.4% 33.6% 71.6% 0.47× 2.97
H2 under 83.5 34.8% 33.6% 68.0% 0.49× 2.97
H2 over 93.5 30.4% 33.6% 8.8% 3.84× 2.97
H2 over 93.5 31.0% 33.6% 11.8% 2.84× 2.97
H2 under 80.5 25.6% 27.8% 59.2% 0.47× 3.59
H2 under 80.5 25.0% 24.2% 62.9% 0.39× 4.13
H2 over 96.5 22.3% 24.2% 8.6% 2.82× 4.13
H2 over 96.5 21.6% 24.2% 5.9% 4.13× 4.13
H2 under 76.5 15.6% 18.2% 46.6% 0.39× 5.50
H2 over 100.5 13.2% 14.8% 5.2% 2.85× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mercer Bears leading at half time 59.6% 57.0% 57.9% 0.98× 1.76
Charleston Southern Buccaneers leading at half time 36.1% 37.8% 38.2% 0.99× 2.64
Level at half time 4.4% 3.8% 3.9% 0.97× 26.40
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mercer Bears +14.5 96.7% 97.4% 92.2% 1.06× 1.03
Mercer Bears +16.5 97.8% 97.4% 94.0% 1.04× 1.03
Mercer Bears +18.5 98.6% 97.4% 95.4% 1.02× 1.03
Mercer Bears +20.5 99.2% 97.4% 96.5% 1.01× 1.03
Mercer Bears +12.5 95.0% 97.4% 89.9% 1.08× 1.03
Mercer Bears +10.5 92.7% 91.1% 87.2% 1.05× 1.10
Mercer Bears +9.5 91.4% 91.1% 85.3% 1.07× 1.10
Charleston Southern Buccaneers +20.5 91.9% 91.1% 86.5% 1.05× 1.10
Mercer Bears +8.5 89.8% 85.9% 83.3% 1.03× 1.16
Charleston Southern Buccaneers +18.5 88.7% 85.9% 83.9% 1.02× 1.16
Mercer Bears +7.5 88.0% 85.9% 81.0% 1.06× 1.16
Mercer Bears +6.5 86.0% 85.9% 78.8% 1.09× 1.16
Mercer Bears +5.5 83.8% 81.1% 76.4% 1.06× 1.23
Charleston Southern Buccaneers +16.5 84.6% 81.1% 80.7% 1.01× 1.23
Mercer Bears +4.5 81.4% 81.1% 73.7% 1.10× 1.23
Mercer Bears +3.5 78.8% 76.5% 70.8% 1.08× 1.31
Charleston Southern Buccaneers +14.5 79.7% 76.5% 77.2% 0.99× 1.31
Mercer Bears +2.5 75.9% 76.5% 68.0% 1.13× 1.31
Charleston Southern Buccaneers +12.5 74.0% 71.6% 72.4% 0.99× 1.40
Mercer Bears +1.5 72.9% 71.6% 65.4% 1.10× 1.40
Charleston Southern Buccaneers +10.5 67.5% 66.7% 67.4% 0.99× 1.50
Mercer Bears −1.5 66.1% 66.7% 60.8% 1.10× 1.50
Charleston Southern Buccaneers +9.5 64.0% 61.9% 64.5% 0.96× 1.62
Mercer Bears −2.5 62.4% 61.9% 57.7% 1.07× 1.62
Charleston Southern Buccaneers +8.5 60.3% 61.9% 61.5% 1.01× 1.62
Mercer Bears −3.5 58.7% 57.1% 54.1% 1.05× 1.75
Charleston Southern Buccaneers +7.5 56.6% 57.1% 58.7% 0.97× 1.75
Mercer Bears −4.5 54.9% 52.4% 50.7% 1.03× 1.91
Charleston Southern Buccaneers +6.5 52.8% 52.4% 55.7% 0.94× 1.91
Mercer Bears −5.5 51.0% 52.4% 47.0% 1.11× 1.91
Charleston Southern Buccaneers +5.5 49.0% 47.6% 53.0% 0.90× 2.10
Mercer Bears −6.5 47.2% 47.6% 44.3% 1.07× 2.10
Charleston Southern Buccaneers +4.5 45.1% 47.6% 49.3% 0.96× 2.10
Mercer Bears −7.5 43.4% 42.9% 41.3% 1.04× 2.33
Charleston Southern Buccaneers +3.5 41.3% 42.9% 45.9% 0.94× 2.33
Mercer Bears −8.5 39.7% 38.1% 38.5% 0.99× 2.63
Charleston Southern Buccaneers +2.5 37.6% 38.1% 42.3% 0.90× 2.63
Mercer Bears −9.5 36.0% 38.1% 35.5% 1.07× 2.63
Charleston Southern Buccaneers +1.5 33.9% 33.3% 39.2% 0.85× 3.01
Mercer Bears −10.5 32.5% 33.3% 32.6% 1.02× 3.01
Charleston Southern Buccaneers −1.5 27.1% 28.4% 34.6% 0.82× 3.53
Mercer Bears −12.5 26.0% 28.4% 27.6% 1.03× 3.53
Charleston Southern Buccaneers −2.5 24.1% 23.5% 32.0% 0.73× 4.25
Charleston Southern Buccaneers −3.5 21.2% 23.5% 29.3% 0.80× 4.25
Mercer Bears −14.5 20.3% 23.5% 22.8% 1.03× 4.25
Charleston Southern Buccaneers −4.5 18.6% 18.9% 26.3% 0.72× 5.29
Charleston Southern Buccaneers −5.5 16.2% 18.9% 23.6% 0.80× 5.30
Mercer Bears −16.5 15.4% 18.9% 19.3% 0.98× 5.30
Charleston Southern Buccaneers −6.5 14.0% 14.1% 21.2% 0.66× 7.09
Charleston Southern Buccaneers −7.5 12.0% 14.1% 19.0% 0.74× 7.09
Charleston Southern Buccaneers −8.5 10.2% 14.1% 16.7% 0.85× 7.09
Mercer Bears −18.5 11.3% 14.1% 16.1% 0.87× 7.09
Charleston Southern Buccaneers −9.5 8.6% 8.9% 14.7% 0.61× 11.25
Mercer Bears −20.5 8.1% 8.9% 13.5% 0.66× 11.25
Charleston Southern Buccaneers −10.5 7.3% 8.9% 12.8% 0.69× 11.25
Charleston Southern Buccaneers −12.5 5.0% 2.6% 10.1% 0.26× 38.72
Charleston Southern Buccaneers −14.5 3.3% 2.6% 7.8% 0.33× 38.73
Charleston Southern Buccaneers −16.5 2.2% 2.6% 6.0% 0.43× 38.73
Charleston Southern Buccaneers −18.5 1.4% 2.6% 4.6% 0.57× 38.73
Charleston Southern Buccaneers −20.5 0.8% 2.6% 3.5% 0.75× 38.74
Highest scoring half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 highest scoring 82.1% 71.5% 70.4% 1.02× 1.40
2nd half highest scoring 80.5% 71.5% 72.5% 0.99× 1.40
1st half highest scoring 19.5% 28.5% 27.5% 1.04× 3.51
H1 highest scoring 17.9% 28.5% 29.6% 0.96× 3.51
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mercer Bears at HT / Mercer Bears at FT 50.4% 51.1% 48.6% 1.05× 1.96
Charleston Southern Buccaneers at HT / Charleston Southern Buccaneers at FT 19.7% 15.5% 25.8% 0.60× 6.47
Charleston Southern Buccaneers at HT / Mercer Bears at FT 16.3% 15.5% 12.4% 1.25× 6.47
Mercer Bears at HT / Charleston Southern Buccaneers at FT 9.2% 8.3% 9.3% 0.89× 12.08
Level at HT / Mercer Bears at FT 2.9% 2.1% 2.3% 0.92× 47.74
Level at HT / Charleston Southern Buccaneers at FT 1.5% 2.1% 1.6% 1.28× 47.77
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mercer Bears to win 69.6% 64.5% 63.2% 1.02× 1.55
Charleston Southern Buccaneers to win 30.4% 35.5% 36.8% 0.96× 2.82
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Total points odd 51.7% 50.5% 51.6% 0.98× 1.98
Mercer Bears even 50.0% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
Charleston Southern Buccaneers even 50.0% 50.5% 50.4% 1.00× 1.98
Mercer Bears odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
Charleston Southern Buccaneers odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.6% 1.00× 2.02
Total points even 48.3% 49.5% 48.4% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 92.6% 94.0% 94.2% 1.00× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 7.4% 6.0% 5.8% 1.04× 16.65
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mercer Bears under 96.5 85.5% 83.9% 94.8% 0.88× 1.19
Charleston Southern Buccaneers over 70.5 85.5% 83.9% 51.4% 1.63× 1.19
Charleston Southern Buccaneers under 90.5 84.8% 80.7% 94.5% 0.85× 1.24
Mercer Bears over 76.5 83.8% 80.7% 47.7% 1.69× 1.24
Mercer Bears under 93.5 77.4% 75.1% 92.1% 0.82× 1.33
Charleston Southern Buccaneers over 73.5 77.2% 75.1% 41.7% 1.80× 1.33
Charleston Southern Buccaneers under 87.5 76.3% 75.1% 91.4% 0.82× 1.33
Mercer Bears over 79.5 75.2% 75.1% 38.4% 1.96× 1.33
Mercer Bears under 91.5 70.7% 70.7% 89.7% 0.79× 1.41
Charleston Southern Buccaneers over 75.5 70.4% 70.7% 35.3% 2.01× 1.41
Charleston Southern Buccaneers under 85.5 69.4% 66.4% 88.8% 0.75× 1.51
Mercer Bears over 81.5 68.3% 66.4% 32.1% 2.07× 1.51
Mercer Bears under 89.5 63.4% 61.2% 86.5% 0.71× 1.63
Charleston Southern Buccaneers over 77.5 62.8% 61.2% 29.1% 2.10× 1.63
Mercer Bears over 83.5 60.7% 61.2% 26.5% 2.31× 1.63
Charleston Southern Buccaneers under 83.5 61.8% 61.2% 85.3% 0.72× 1.63
Mercer Bears under 87.5 55.4% 57.1% 82.8% 0.69× 1.75
Charleston Southern Buccaneers over 79.5 54.7% 52.3% 23.7% 2.20× 1.91
Charleston Southern Buccaneers under 81.5 53.6% 52.3% 81.2% 0.64× 1.91
Mercer Bears over 85.5 52.7% 52.3% 21.4% 2.44× 1.91
Mercer Bears under 86.5 51.4% 52.3% 80.8% 0.65× 1.91
Charleston Southern Buccaneers over 80.5 50.5% 52.3% 21.2% 2.46× 1.91
Charleston Southern Buccaneers under 80.5 49.5% 47.7% 78.8% 0.61× 2.09
Mercer Bears under 85.5 47.3% 47.7% 78.6% 0.61× 2.09
Mercer Bears over 86.5 48.6% 47.7% 19.2% 2.49× 2.09
Charleston Southern Buccaneers under 79.5 45.3% 47.7% 76.3% 0.63× 2.09
Charleston Southern Buccaneers over 81.5 46.4% 47.7% 18.8% 2.54× 2.09
Mercer Bears over 87.5 44.6% 42.9% 17.2% 2.50× 2.33
Mercer Bears under 83.5 39.3% 38.8% 73.5% 0.53× 2.58
Charleston Southern Buccaneers over 83.5 38.2% 38.8% 14.7% 2.65× 2.58
Mercer Bears over 89.5 36.6% 38.8% 13.5% 2.87× 2.58
Charleston Southern Buccaneers under 77.5 37.2% 38.8% 70.9% 0.55× 2.58
Mercer Bears under 81.5 31.7% 33.6% 67.9% 0.49× 2.98
Charleston Southern Buccaneers over 85.5 30.6% 33.6% 11.2% 3.01× 2.98
Mercer Bears over 91.5 29.3% 29.3% 10.3% 2.83× 3.42
Charleston Southern Buccaneers under 75.5 29.6% 29.3% 64.7% 0.45× 3.42
Mercer Bears under 79.5 24.8% 24.9% 61.6% 0.40× 4.02
Mercer Bears over 93.5 22.6% 24.9% 7.9% 3.14× 4.02
Charleston Southern Buccaneers under 73.5 22.8% 24.9% 58.3% 0.43× 4.02
Charleston Southern Buccaneers over 87.5 23.7% 24.9% 8.6% 2.89× 4.02
Mercer Bears under 76.5 16.2% 19.3% 52.3% 0.37× 5.18
Charleston Southern Buccaneers over 90.5 15.2% 19.3% 5.5% 3.52× 5.18
Mercer Bears over 96.5 14.5% 16.1% 5.2% 3.11× 6.21
Charleston Southern Buccaneers under 70.5 14.5% 16.1% 48.7% 0.33× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 187.5 points 90.2% 88.8% 97.6% 0.91× 1.13
Over 147.5 points 88.5% 85.0% 47.8% 1.78× 1.18
Under 182.5 points 83.6% 80.6% 96.2% 0.84× 1.24
Over 152.5 points 81.4% 80.6% 37.4% 2.16× 1.24
Under 177.5 points 74.9% 70.8% 93.6% 0.76× 1.41
Over 157.5 points 71.8% 70.8% 28.4% 2.49× 1.41
Under 174.5 points 68.5% 65.9% 91.9% 0.72× 1.52
Over 160.5 points 65.3% 65.9% 23.6% 2.79× 1.52
Under 172.5 points 63.9% 61.5% 90.5% 0.68× 1.63
Over 162.5 points 60.6% 61.5% 20.6% 2.98× 1.63
Under 170.5 points 59.1% 56.5% 88.6% 0.64× 1.77
Over 164.5 points 55.7% 56.5% 17.7% 3.19× 1.77
Under 168.5 points 54.2% 52.3% 86.7% 0.60× 1.91
Under 167.5 points 51.8% 52.3% 85.6% 0.61× 1.91
Over 166.5 points 50.7% 52.3% 15.7% 3.32× 1.91
Under 166.5 points 49.3% 47.7% 84.3% 0.57× 2.10
Over 167.5 points 48.2% 47.7% 14.4% 3.32× 2.10
Over 168.5 points 45.8% 47.7% 13.3% 3.58× 2.10
Under 164.5 points 44.3% 43.5% 82.3% 0.53× 2.30
Over 170.5 points 40.9% 43.5% 11.4% 3.83× 2.30
Under 162.5 points 39.4% 38.5% 79.4% 0.49× 2.60
Over 172.5 points 36.1% 38.5% 9.5% 4.06× 2.60
Under 160.5 points 34.7% 34.1% 76.4% 0.45× 2.93
Over 174.5 points 31.5% 34.1% 8.1% 4.19× 2.93
Under 157.5 points 28.2% 29.2% 71.6% 0.41× 3.43
Over 177.5 points 25.1% 29.2% 6.4% 4.58× 3.43
Under 152.5 points 18.6% 19.4% 62.7% 0.31× 5.15
Over 182.5 points 16.4% 19.4% 3.8% 5.08× 5.15
Under 147.5 points 11.5% 15.0% 52.2% 0.29× 6.69
Over 187.5 points 9.8% 11.2% 2.4% 4.70× 8.96
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mercer Bears to win both halves 32.5% 31.2% 33.2% 0.94× 3.20
Charleston Southern Buccaneers to win both halves 9.6% 8.9% 14.5% 0.61× 11.30
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Mercer Bears by 1-5 18.6% 16.8% 16.2% 1.03× 5.97
Mercer Bears by 6-10 18.5% 16.8% 14.4% 1.16× 5.97
Mercer Bears by 11-15 14.8% 12.3% 11.6% 1.07× 8.11
Charleston Southern Buccaneers by 1-5 14.2% 12.3% 13.2% 0.94× 8.11
Mercer Bears by 16-20 9.6% 7.5% 7.6% 0.98× 13.40
Charleston Southern Buccaneers by 6-10 8.9% 7.5% 10.8% 0.69× 13.40
Mercer Bears by 21-25 5.0% 7.5% 5.6% 1.34× 13.41
Charleston Southern Buccaneers by 11-15 4.5% 2.0% 6.1% 0.34× 49.29
Charleston Southern Buccaneers by 16-20 1.9% 2.0% 3.3% 0.61× 49.31
Mercer Bears by 26+ 3.1% 2.0% 7.9% 0.26× 49.30
Charleston Southern Buccaneers by 21-25 0.6% 2.0% 1.9% 1.06× 49.32
Charleston Southern Buccaneers by 26+ 0.2% 2.0% 1.6% 1.30× 49.33
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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