Miami Heat v Detroit Pistons — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 15 November 2026 · NBA · 2027

NBA results-only Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 03:45 UTC

Miami Heat

01:00 UTC

Detroit Pistons

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Miami Heat win

40.5%

Draw

0.0%

Detroit Pistons win

59.5%

40060

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
nba-normal	40060	114.87–118.26	115-118 0%	49%	0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Detroit Pistons to score 100+	94.6%	90.3%	85.9%	1.05×	1.11
Miami Heat to score 100+	90.3%	90.3%	89.3%	1.01×	1.11
Both sides to score 100+	85.8%	85.0%	77.5%	1.10×	1.18
Detroit Pistons to score 110+	77.4%	76.9%	60.9%	1.26×	1.30
Miami Heat to score 110+	67.3%	63.8%	67.0%	0.95×	1.57
Detroit Pistons to score 120+	46.0%	46.9%	29.7%	1.58×	2.13
Miami Heat to score 120+	34.6%	31.4%	36.5%	0.86×	3.18
Detroit Pistons to score 130+	17.0%	17.5%	10.0%	1.76×	5.70
Miami Heat to score 130+	10.8%	13.8%	12.8%	1.08×	7.25

H1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Detroit Pistons to win H1	54.5%	51.9%	44.1%	1.18×	1.93
Miami Heat to win H1	42.1%	42.7%	52.8%	0.81×	2.34
H1 tied	3.5%	3.9%	3.1%	1.25×	25.86

H1 total 22

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H1 over 105.5	82.5%	82.5%	75.8%	1.09×	1.21
H1 under 129.5	81.9%	82.5%	88.1%	0.94×	1.21
H1 over 109.5	73.5%	73.5%	65.0%	1.13×	1.36
H1 under 125.5	72.7%	73.5%	80.7%	0.91×	1.36
H1 over 112.5	65.4%	67.4%	55.8%	1.21×	1.48
H1 under 122.5	64.5%	62.7%	74.0%	0.85×	1.59
H1 over 114.5	59.6%	58.2%	49.6%	1.17×	1.72
H1 under 120.5	58.6%	58.2%	68.4%	0.85×	1.72
H1 over 116.5	53.6%	52.6%	43.4%	1.21×	1.90
H1 under 118.5	52.6%	52.6%	62.9%	0.84×	1.90
H1 over 117.5	50.5%	52.6%	40.4%	1.30×	1.90
H1 under 117.5	49.5%	47.4%	59.6%	0.79×	2.11
H1 under 116.5	46.4%	47.4%	56.6%	0.84×	2.11
H1 over 118.5	47.4%	47.4%	37.1%	1.28×	2.11
H1 over 120.5	41.4%	41.8%	31.6%	1.32×	2.39
H1 under 114.5	40.4%	41.8%	50.4%	0.83×	2.39
H1 over 122.5	35.5%	37.3%	26.0%	1.43×	2.68
H1 under 112.5	34.6%	32.6%	44.2%	0.74×	3.07
H1 over 125.5	27.3%	26.5%	19.3%	1.37×	3.77
H1 under 109.5	26.5%	26.5%	35.0%	0.76×	3.77
H1 over 129.5	18.1%	17.5%	11.9%	1.47×	5.73
H1 under 105.5	17.5%	17.5%	24.2%	0.72×	5.73

H2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Detroit Pistons to win H2	54.4%	51.2%	44.7%	1.15×	1.95
Miami Heat to win H2	42.1%	43.5%	51.6%	0.84×	2.30
H2 tied	3.5%	3.9%	3.7%	1.06×	25.36

H2 total 22

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H2 over 103.5	82.4%	81.8%	76.2%	1.07×	1.22
H2 under 127.5	82.5%	81.8%	84.9%	0.96×	1.22
H2 over 107.5	73.2%	72.2%	66.2%	1.09×	1.39
H2 under 123.5	73.3%	72.2%	76.9%	0.94×	1.39
H2 over 110.5	65.0%	66.4%	58.1%	1.14×	1.51
H2 under 120.5	65.2%	66.4%	69.3%	0.96×	1.51
H2 over 112.5	59.1%	57.3%	52.6%	1.09×	1.74
H2 under 118.5	59.3%	57.3%	63.6%	0.90×	1.74
H2 over 114.5	53.0%	52.4%	47.5%	1.10×	1.91
H2 under 116.5	53.2%	52.4%	58.1%	0.90×	1.91
H2 under 115.5	50.1%	52.4%	55.4%	0.95×	1.91
H2 over 115.5	49.9%	47.6%	44.6%	1.07×	2.10
H2 under 114.5	47.0%	47.6%	52.5%	0.91×	2.10
H2 over 116.5	46.8%	47.6%	41.9%	1.14×	2.10
H2 under 112.5	40.9%	42.7%	47.4%	0.90×	2.35
H2 over 118.5	40.7%	42.7%	36.4%	1.17×	2.35
H2 under 110.5	35.0%	33.6%	41.9%	0.80×	2.97
H2 over 120.5	34.8%	33.6%	30.7%	1.10×	2.97
H2 under 107.5	26.8%	27.8%	33.8%	0.82×	3.59
H2 over 123.5	26.7%	27.8%	23.1%	1.20×	3.59
H2 under 103.5	17.6%	18.2%	23.8%	0.76×	5.50
H2 over 127.5	17.5%	18.2%	15.1%	1.20×	5.50

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Detroit Pistons leading at half time	54.5%	51.9%	44.1%	1.18×	1.93
Miami Heat leading at half time	42.1%	42.8%	52.8%	0.81×	2.33
Level at half time	3.5%	3.8%	3.1%	1.22×	26.41

Handicap 60

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Detroit Pistons +20.5	94.9%	91.1%	89.1%	1.02×	1.10
Detroit Pistons +18.5	93.3%	91.1%	86.4%	1.05×	1.10
Detroit Pistons +16.5	91.3%	91.1%	83.5%	1.09×	1.10
Detroit Pistons +14.5	88.8%	85.9%	80.1%	1.07×	1.16
Miami Heat +20.5	87.8%	85.9%	93.1%	0.92×	1.16
Detroit Pistons +12.5	86.0%	85.9%	76.0%	1.13×	1.16
Miami Heat +18.5	84.7%	81.1%	91.5%	0.89×	1.23
Detroit Pistons +10.5	82.6%	81.1%	71.0%	1.14×	1.23
Detroit Pistons +9.5	80.8%	81.1%	68.7%	1.18×	1.23
Miami Heat +16.5	81.2%	81.1%	89.7%	0.90×	1.23
Detroit Pistons +8.5	78.8%	76.5%	65.9%	1.16×	1.31
Miami Heat +14.5	77.2%	76.5%	87.0%	0.88×	1.31
Detroit Pistons +7.5	76.8%	76.5%	63.0%	1.21×	1.31
Detroit Pistons +6.5	74.6%	71.6%	60.0%	1.19×	1.40
Miami Heat +12.5	72.8%	71.6%	83.9%	0.85×	1.40
Detroit Pistons +5.5	72.3%	71.6%	57.1%	1.25×	1.40
Detroit Pistons +4.5	69.9%	66.7%	54.1%	1.23×	1.50
Detroit Pistons +3.5	67.4%	66.7%	51.6%	1.29×	1.50
Miami Heat +10.5	67.9%	66.7%	80.3%	0.83×	1.50
Miami Heat +9.5	65.4%	66.7%	78.1%	0.85×	1.50
Detroit Pistons +2.5	64.8%	61.9%	49.1%	1.26×	1.62
Miami Heat +8.5	62.8%	61.9%	75.7%	0.82×	1.62
Detroit Pistons +1.5	62.2%	61.9%	46.3%	1.34×	1.62
Miami Heat +7.5	60.1%	61.9%	73.0%	0.85×	1.62
Detroit Pistons −1.5	56.7%	57.1%	42.1%	1.35×	1.75
Miami Heat +6.5	57.3%	57.1%	70.6%	0.81×	1.75
Miami Heat +5.5	54.6%	52.4%	68.0%	0.77×	1.91
Detroit Pistons −2.5	53.9%	52.4%	39.5%	1.33×	1.91
Detroit Pistons −3.5	51.1%	52.4%	36.9%	1.42×	1.91
Miami Heat +4.5	51.7%	52.4%	65.7%	0.80×	1.91
Miami Heat +3.5	48.9%	47.6%	63.1%	0.75×	2.10
Detroit Pistons −4.5	48.3%	47.6%	34.3%	1.39×	2.10
Miami Heat +2.5	46.1%	47.6%	60.5%	0.79×	2.10
Detroit Pistons −5.5	45.4%	47.6%	32.0%	1.49×	2.10
Miami Heat +1.5	43.3%	42.9%	57.9%	0.74×	2.33
Detroit Pistons −6.5	42.7%	42.9%	29.4%	1.46×	2.33
Detroit Pistons −7.5	39.9%	38.1%	27.0%	1.41×	2.63
Miami Heat −1.5	37.8%	38.1%	53.7%	0.71×	2.63
Detroit Pistons −8.5	37.2%	38.1%	24.3%	1.57×	2.63
Miami Heat −2.5	35.2%	38.1%	50.9%	0.75×	2.63
Detroit Pistons −9.5	34.6%	33.3%	21.9%	1.52×	3.01
Miami Heat −3.5	32.6%	33.3%	48.4%	0.69×	3.01
Detroit Pistons −10.5	32.1%	33.3%	19.7%	1.69×	3.01
Miami Heat −4.5	30.1%	33.3%	46.0%	0.72×	3.01
Miami Heat −5.5	27.7%	28.4%	42.9%	0.66×	3.53
Detroit Pistons −12.5	27.2%	28.4%	16.1%	1.76×	3.53
Miami Heat −6.5	25.4%	28.4%	40.0%	0.71×	3.53
Miami Heat −7.5	23.2%	23.5%	37.0%	0.64×	4.25
Detroit Pistons −14.5	22.8%	23.5%	13.0%	1.81×	4.25
Miami Heat −8.5	21.2%	23.5%	34.1%	0.69×	4.25
Miami Heat −9.5	19.2%	18.9%	31.3%	0.60×	5.29
Detroit Pistons −16.5	18.8%	18.9%	10.3%	1.83×	5.29
Miami Heat −10.5	17.4%	18.9%	29.0%	0.65×	5.29
Detroit Pistons −18.5	15.3%	18.9%	8.5%	2.22×	5.30
Miami Heat −12.5	14.0%	14.1%	24.0%	0.59×	7.09
Detroit Pistons −20.5	12.2%	14.1%	6.9%	2.05×	7.09
Miami Heat −14.5	11.2%	14.1%	19.9%	0.71×	7.09
Miami Heat −16.5	8.7%	8.9%	16.5%	0.54×	11.25
Miami Heat −18.5	6.7%	8.9%	13.6%	0.65×	11.25
Miami Heat −20.5	5.1%	8.9%	10.9%	0.82×	11.25

Highest scoring half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	56.8%	52.6%	53.5%	0.98×	1.90
2nd half highest scoring	43.2%	47.4%	46.5%	1.02×	2.11

Highest scoring quarter 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 highest scoring	28.3%	27.4%	29.2%	0.94×	3.65
Q3 highest scoring	28.0%	27.4%	27.5%	1.00×	3.65
Q2 highest scoring	26.6%	27.4%	26.3%	1.04×	3.65
Q4 highest scoring	17.1%	18.3%	17.0%	1.08×	5.46

HT/FT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Detroit Pistons at HT / Detroit Pistons at FT	43.6%	41.0%	30.9%	1.33×	2.44
Miami Heat at HT / Miami Heat at FT	28.1%	29.6%	40.8%	0.73×	3.38
Miami Heat at HT / Detroit Pistons at FT	14.0%	12.2%	12.0%	1.02×	8.17
Detroit Pistons at HT / Miami Heat at FT	10.9%	12.2%	13.3%	0.92×	8.18
Level at HT / Miami Heat at FT	1.5%	2.1%	1.7%	1.22×	47.77
Level at HT / Detroit Pistons at FT	2.0%	2.1%	1.4%	1.50×	47.76

Moneyline 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Detroit Pistons to win	59.5%	55.2%	44.3%	1.25×	1.81
Miami Heat to win	40.5%	44.8%	55.7%	0.80×	2.23

Odd/Even 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Total points odd	51.4%	50.5%	51.0%	0.99×	1.98
Miami Heat even	50.0%	50.5%	49.7%	1.02×	1.98
Detroit Pistons even	50.0%	50.5%	50.3%	1.00×	1.98
Miami Heat odd	50.0%	49.5%	50.3%	0.98×	2.02
Detroit Pistons odd	50.0%	49.5%	49.7%	1.00×	2.02
Total points even	48.6%	49.5%	49.0%	1.01×	2.02

Overtime 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No overtime	93.0%	94.0%	94.8%	0.99×	1.06
Match to go to overtime	7.0%	6.0%	5.2%	1.16×	16.65

Q1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Detroit Pistons to win Q1	51.8%	52.6%	44.1%	1.19×	1.90
Miami Heat to win Q1	43.4%	42.9%	51.3%	0.84×	2.33
Q1 tied	4.8%	4.2%	4.6%	0.90×	23.94

Q1 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 under 67.5	84.2%	82.8%	88.8%	0.93×	1.21
Q1 over 51.5	81.1%	82.8%	76.0%	1.09×	1.21
Q1 under 64.5	74.2%	72.7%	80.1%	0.91×	1.38
Q1 over 54.5	70.1%	72.7%	63.3%	1.15×	1.38
Q1 under 62.5	66.1%	67.6%	72.9%	0.93×	1.48
Q1 over 56.5	61.5%	61.7%	54.6%	1.13×	1.62
Q1 under 60.5	57.1%	58.6%	64.5%	0.91×	1.71
Q1 under 59.5	52.4%	52.7%	60.0%	0.88×	1.90
Q1 over 58.5	52.3%	52.7%	44.3%	1.19×	1.90
Q1 under 58.5	47.7%	47.3%	55.7%	0.85×	2.11
Q1 over 59.5	47.6%	47.3%	40.0%	1.18×	2.11
Q1 over 60.5	42.9%	41.4%	35.5%	1.17×	2.42
Q1 under 56.5	38.5%	38.3%	45.4%	0.84×	2.61
Q1 over 62.5	33.9%	32.4%	27.1%	1.20×	3.08
Q1 under 54.5	29.9%	27.3%	36.7%	0.74×	3.66
Q1 over 64.5	25.8%	27.3%	19.9%	1.37×	3.66
Q1 under 51.5	18.9%	17.2%	24.0%	0.71×	5.83
Q1 over 67.5	15.8%	17.2%	11.2%	1.53×	5.83

Q2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Detroit Pistons to win Q2	51.8%	51.4%	46.2%	1.11×	1.95
Miami Heat to win Q2	43.5%	43.9%	49.3%	0.89×	2.28
Q2 tied	4.7%	4.4%	4.5%	0.98×	22.88

Q2 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q2 over 50.5	83.1%	83.0%	78.1%	1.06×	1.21
Q2 under 66.5	82.0%	83.0%	86.5%	0.96×	1.21
Q2 over 53.5	72.8%	72.0%	65.8%	1.09×	1.39
Q2 under 63.5	71.4%	72.0%	77.5%	0.93×	1.39
Q2 over 55.5	64.5%	60.7%	56.3%	1.08×	1.65
Q2 under 61.5	62.9%	60.7%	70.4%	0.86×	1.65
Q2 over 57.5	55.5%	58.2%	47.3%	1.23×	1.72
Q2 under 59.5	53.8%	52.7%	61.9%	0.85×	1.90
Q2 over 58.5	50.8%	52.7%	42.7%	1.23×	1.90
Q2 under 58.5	49.2%	47.3%	57.3%	0.83×	2.11
Q2 over 59.5	46.2%	47.3%	38.1%	1.24×	2.11
Q2 under 57.5	44.5%	41.8%	52.7%	0.79×	2.39
Q2 over 61.5	37.1%	39.3%	29.6%	1.33×	2.55
Q2 under 55.5	35.5%	39.3%	43.7%	0.90×	2.55
Q2 over 63.5	28.6%	28.0%	22.5%	1.25×	3.57
Q2 under 53.5	27.2%	28.0%	34.2%	0.82×	3.57
Q2 over 66.5	18.0%	17.0%	13.5%	1.26×	5.88
Q2 under 50.5	16.9%	17.0%	21.9%	0.78×	5.88

Q3 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Detroit Pistons to win Q3	51.8%	52.7%	44.3%	1.19×	1.90
Miami Heat to win Q3	43.5%	42.3%	50.9%	0.83×	2.37
Q3 tied	4.7%	4.3%	4.9%	0.88×	23.43

Q3 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q3 under 67.5	84.0%	82.3%	87.0%	0.95×	1.22
Q3 over 51.5	81.8%	82.3%	76.1%	1.08×	1.22
Q3 under 64.5	73.8%	71.8%	79.2%	0.91×	1.39
Q3 over 54.5	71.0%	71.8%	63.9%	1.12×	1.39
Q3 under 62.5	65.5%	67.8%	71.9%	0.94×	1.48
Q3 over 56.5	62.3%	61.9%	55.0%	1.13×	1.61
Q3 under 60.5	56.4%	58.4%	63.5%	0.92×	1.71
Q3 over 58.5	53.1%	52.3%	45.2%	1.16×	1.91
Q3 under 59.5	51.7%	52.3%	59.0%	0.89×	1.91
Q3 over 59.5	48.3%	47.7%	41.0%	1.16×	2.10
Q3 under 58.5	46.9%	47.7%	54.8%	0.87×	2.10
Q3 over 60.5	43.6%	41.6%	36.5%	1.14×	2.40
Q3 under 56.5	37.7%	38.1%	45.0%	0.85×	2.63
Q3 over 62.5	34.5%	32.2%	28.1%	1.15×	3.10
Q3 under 54.5	29.0%	28.2%	36.1%	0.78×	3.55
Q3 over 64.5	26.2%	28.2%	20.8%	1.35×	3.55
Q3 under 51.5	18.2%	17.7%	23.9%	0.74×	5.66
Q3 over 67.5	16.0%	17.7%	13.0%	1.36×	5.66

Q4 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Detroit Pistons to win Q4	51.7%	51.4%	46.4%	1.11×	1.95
Miami Heat to win Q4	43.5%	43.1%	48.3%	0.89×	2.32
Q4 tied	4.9%	5.2%	5.3%	0.98×	19.28

Q4 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q4 under 64.5	82.7%	82.0%	86.3%	0.95×	1.22
Q4 over 48.5	81.6%	82.0%	75.5%	1.09×	1.22
Q4 under 61.5	72.5%	71.5%	77.5%	0.92×	1.40
Q4 over 51.5	71.1%	71.5%	64.7%	1.11×	1.40
Q4 under 59.5	64.3%	61.4%	70.2%	0.87×	1.63
Q4 over 53.5	62.8%	61.4%	55.7%	1.10×	1.63
Q4 under 57.5	55.4%	58.4%	61.9%	0.94×	1.71
Q4 over 55.5	53.8%	52.5%	47.1%	1.11×	1.91
Q4 under 56.5	50.8%	52.5%	57.2%	0.92×	1.91
Q4 over 56.5	49.2%	47.5%	42.8%	1.11×	2.11
Q4 under 55.5	46.2%	47.5%	52.9%	0.90×	2.11
Q4 over 57.5	44.6%	41.6%	38.1%	1.09×	2.40
Q4 under 53.5	37.2%	38.6%	44.3%	0.87×	2.59
Q4 over 59.5	35.7%	38.6%	29.8%	1.30×	2.59
Q4 under 51.5	28.9%	28.5%	35.3%	0.81×	3.51
Q4 over 61.5	27.5%	28.5%	22.5%	1.27×	3.51
Q4 under 48.5	18.4%	18.0%	24.5%	0.73×	5.56
Q4 over 64.5	17.3%	18.0%	13.7%	1.31×	5.56

Team total 44

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Miami Heat under 125.5	81.6%	80.7%	79.1%	1.02×	1.24
Detroit Pistons under 128.5	80.8%	80.7%	88.6%	0.91×	1.24
Detroit Pistons over 108.5	79.9%	75.1%	64.0%	1.17×	1.33
Miami Heat over 105.5	78.4%	75.1%	77.4%	0.97×	1.33
Miami Heat under 122.5	74.2%	70.7%	71.8%	0.98×	1.41
Detroit Pistons over 111.5	71.9%	70.7%	54.6%	1.30×	1.41
Detroit Pistons under 125.5	73.0%	70.7%	83.4%	0.85×	1.41
Miami Heat over 108.5	70.3%	70.7%	69.9%	1.01×	1.41
Miami Heat under 120.5	68.4%	66.4%	66.3%	1.00×	1.51
Detroit Pistons under 123.5	67.1%	66.4%	79.5%	0.84×	1.51
Detroit Pistons over 113.5	65.9%	66.4%	48.0%	1.38×	1.51
Miami Heat over 110.5	64.2%	61.2%	64.1%	0.95×	1.63
Miami Heat under 118.5	62.2%	61.2%	60.3%	1.02×	1.63
Detroit Pistons under 121.5	60.7%	61.2%	74.7%	0.82×	1.63
Detroit Pistons over 115.5	59.5%	57.1%	41.4%	1.38×	1.75
Miami Heat over 112.5	57.7%	57.1%	57.7%	0.99×	1.75
Miami Heat under 116.5	55.7%	57.1%	54.7%	1.04×	1.75
Detroit Pistons under 119.5	54.0%	52.3%	70.3%	0.74×	1.91
Miami Heat over 114.5	51.0%	52.3%	51.4%	1.02×	1.91
Miami Heat under 115.5	52.3%	52.3%	51.6%	1.01×	1.91
Detroit Pistons over 117.5	52.8%	52.3%	35.6%	1.47×	1.91
Detroit Pistons under 118.5	50.6%	52.3%	67.4%	0.78×	1.91
Detroit Pistons over 118.5	49.4%	47.7%	32.6%	1.46×	2.09
Miami Heat under 114.5	49.0%	47.7%	48.6%	0.98×	2.09
Miami Heat over 115.5	47.7%	47.7%	48.4%	0.99×	2.09
Detroit Pistons under 117.5	47.2%	47.7%	64.4%	0.74×	2.09
Detroit Pistons over 119.5	46.0%	47.7%	29.7%	1.61×	2.09
Miami Heat over 116.5	44.3%	42.9%	45.3%	0.95×	2.33
Miami Heat under 112.5	42.3%	42.9%	42.3%	1.01×	2.33
Detroit Pistons under 115.5	40.5%	42.9%	58.6%	0.73×	2.33
Detroit Pistons over 121.5	39.3%	38.8%	25.3%	1.54×	2.58
Miami Heat over 118.5	37.8%	38.8%	39.7%	0.98×	2.58
Miami Heat under 110.5	35.8%	38.8%	35.9%	1.08×	2.58
Detroit Pistons under 113.5	34.1%	33.6%	52.0%	0.65×	2.98
Detroit Pistons over 123.5	32.9%	33.6%	20.5%	1.64×	2.98
Miami Heat over 120.5	31.6%	33.6%	33.7%	1.00×	2.98
Miami Heat under 108.5	29.7%	29.3%	30.1%	0.97×	3.42
Detroit Pistons under 111.5	28.1%	29.3%	45.4%	0.64×	3.42
Detroit Pistons over 125.5	27.0%	29.3%	16.6%	1.76×	3.42
Miami Heat over 122.5	25.8%	29.3%	28.2%	1.04×	3.42
Miami Heat under 105.5	21.6%	24.9%	22.6%	1.10×	4.02
Detroit Pistons under 108.5	20.1%	24.9%	36.0%	0.69×	4.02
Detroit Pistons over 128.5	19.2%	19.3%	11.5%	1.69×	5.18
Miami Heat over 125.5	18.4%	19.3%	20.9%	0.92×	5.18

Total points 30

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 253.5 points	86.6%	85.0%	89.1%	0.95×	1.18
Over 213.5 points	85.7%	85.0%	76.4%	1.11×	1.18
Under 248.5 points	79.8%	75.6%	84.4%	0.90×	1.32
Over 218.5 points	78.7%	75.6%	67.8%	1.12×	1.32
Under 243.5 points	71.4%	70.8%	78.2%	0.91×	1.41
Over 223.5 points	69.9%	65.9%	58.3%	1.13×	1.52
Under 240.5 points	65.5%	65.9%	74.0%	0.89×	1.52
Over 226.5 points	64.1%	61.5%	52.7%	1.17×	1.63
Under 238.5 points	61.4%	61.5%	70.9%	0.87×	1.63
Over 228.5 points	60.0%	56.5%	48.7%	1.16×	1.77
Under 236.5 points	57.2%	56.5%	67.3%	0.84×	1.77
Over 230.5 points	55.7%	56.5%	44.6%	1.27×	1.77
Under 234.5 points	52.9%	52.3%	63.3%	0.83×	1.91
Over 232.5 points	51.4%	52.3%	40.6%	1.29×	1.91
Under 233.5 points	50.8%	52.3%	61.4%	0.85×	1.91
Under 232.5 points	48.6%	47.7%	59.4%	0.80×	2.10
Over 233.5 points	49.2%	47.7%	38.6%	1.23×	2.10
Over 234.5 points	47.1%	47.7%	36.7%	1.30×	2.10
Under 230.5 points	44.3%	43.5%	55.4%	0.79×	2.30
Over 236.5 points	42.8%	43.5%	32.7%	1.33×	2.30
Under 228.5 points	40.0%	43.5%	51.3%	0.85×	2.30
Over 238.5 points	38.6%	38.5%	29.1%	1.32×	2.60
Under 226.5 points	35.9%	38.5%	47.3%	0.82×	2.60
Over 240.5 points	34.5%	34.1%	26.0%	1.31×	2.93
Under 223.5 points	30.1%	34.1%	41.7%	0.82×	2.93
Over 243.5 points	28.6%	29.2%	21.8%	1.34×	3.43
Under 218.5 points	21.3%	24.4%	32.2%	0.76×	4.10
Over 248.5 points	20.2%	24.4%	15.6%	1.57×	4.10
Under 213.5 points	14.3%	15.0%	23.6%	0.64×	6.68
Over 253.5 points	13.4%	15.0%	10.9%	1.38×	6.69

Win both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Detroit Pistons to win both halves	27.4%	27.2%	17.8%	1.52×	3.68
Miami Heat to win both halves	15.7%	18.9%	25.2%	0.75×	5.30

Winning margin 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Detroit Pistons by 1-5	14.1%	12.3%	12.3%	1.01×	8.11
Detroit Pistons by 6-10	13.4%	12.3%	12.3%	1.00×	8.11
Miami Heat by 1-5	12.8%	12.3%	12.8%	0.96×	8.11
Detroit Pistons by 11-15	11.3%	12.3%	8.0%	1.54×	8.11
Miami Heat by 6-10	10.4%	12.3%	13.9%	0.88×	8.11
Detroit Pistons by 16-20	8.5%	7.5%	4.9%	1.53×	13.40
Miami Heat by 11-15	7.5%	7.5%	10.8%	0.69×	13.40
Detroit Pistons by 21-25	5.7%	7.5%	3.0%	2.45×	13.40
Detroit Pistons by 26+	6.5%	7.5%	3.9%	1.93×	13.40
Miami Heat by 16-20	4.8%	2.0%	7.3%	0.28×	49.29
Miami Heat by 21-25	2.7%	2.0%	4.7%	0.43×	49.30
Miami Heat by 26+	2.4%	2.0%	6.2%	0.33×	49.31

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