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Miami Hurricanes v Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 29 November 2026 · NCAAW · 2027

NCAAW results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Miami Hurricanes win
99.5%
Draw
0.0%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions win
0.5%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 81.58–53.02 82-53 0% 54% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Miami Hurricanes to score 100+ 3.2% 0.4% 1.8% 0.20× 282.73
Miami Hurricanes to score 110+ 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.64× 283.32
Miami Hurricanes to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 2.91× 283.36
Miami Hurricanes to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 7.58× 283.36
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.71× 283.36
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.74× 283.36
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 18.95× 283.36
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 37.89× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 6.32× 283.36
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Miami Hurricanes to win H1 92.8% 93.4% 56.4% 1.66× 1.07
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions to win H1 5.7% 7.1% 39.9% 0.18× 14.18
H1 tied 1.4% 3.9% 3.7% 1.05× 25.88
H1 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 77.5 89.6% 87.7% 91.6% 0.96× 1.14
H1 over 53.5 88.2% 87.7% 76.8% 1.14× 1.14
H1 under 73.5 80.4% 82.5% 85.6% 0.96× 1.21
H1 over 57.5 77.9% 77.4% 64.8% 1.19× 1.29
H1 under 70.5 71.1% 73.5% 78.9% 0.93× 1.36
H1 over 60.5 67.7% 67.4% 53.9% 1.25× 1.48
H1 under 68.5 63.8% 62.7% 73.5% 0.85× 1.59
H1 over 62.5 60.1% 62.7% 46.3% 1.35× 1.59
H1 under 66.5 56.0% 58.2% 67.1% 0.87× 1.72
H1 over 64.5 52.1% 52.6% 39.3% 1.34× 1.90
H1 under 65.5 52.0% 52.6% 63.9% 0.82× 1.90
H1 under 64.5 47.9% 47.4% 60.7% 0.78× 2.11
H1 over 65.5 48.0% 47.4% 36.1% 1.31× 2.11
H1 over 66.5 44.0% 41.8% 32.9% 1.27× 2.39
H1 under 62.5 39.9% 37.3% 53.7% 0.69× 2.68
H1 over 68.5 36.2% 37.3% 26.5% 1.41× 2.68
H1 under 60.5 32.3% 32.6% 46.1% 0.71× 3.07
H1 over 70.5 28.9% 26.5% 21.1% 1.26× 3.77
H1 under 57.5 22.1% 22.6% 35.2% 0.64× 4.43
H1 over 73.5 19.6% 17.5% 14.4% 1.21× 5.72
H1 under 53.5 11.8% 12.3% 23.2% 0.53× 8.14
H1 over 77.5 10.4% 12.3% 8.4% 1.47× 8.14
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Miami Hurricanes to win H2 94.0% 89.4% 56.0% 1.60× 1.12
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions to win H2 4.8% 3.9% 40.6% 0.10× 25.35
H2 tied 1.2% 3.9% 3.4% 1.16× 25.38
H2 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 83.5 88.2% 85.2% 88.9% 0.96× 1.17
H2 over 59.5 87.6% 85.2% 77.0% 1.11× 1.17
H2 under 79.5 78.9% 75.8% 82.0% 0.92× 1.32
H2 over 63.5 77.5% 75.8% 65.3% 1.16× 1.32
H2 under 76.5 69.7% 66.4% 75.6% 0.88× 1.51
H2 over 66.5 67.6% 66.4% 55.4% 1.20× 1.51
H2 under 74.5 62.6% 61.6% 69.9% 0.88× 1.62
H2 over 68.5 60.3% 61.6% 48.7% 1.27× 1.62
H2 under 72.5 55.1% 57.3% 64.1% 0.90× 1.74
H2 over 70.5 52.6% 52.4% 42.2% 1.24× 1.91
H2 under 71.5 51.2% 52.4% 61.1% 0.86× 1.91
H2 over 71.5 48.8% 47.6% 38.9% 1.23× 2.10
H2 under 70.5 47.4% 47.6% 57.8% 0.82× 2.10
H2 over 72.5 44.9% 42.7% 36.0% 1.19× 2.34
H2 under 68.5 39.7% 38.4% 51.3% 0.75× 2.61
H2 over 74.5 37.4% 38.4% 30.1% 1.28× 2.61
H2 under 66.5 32.4% 33.6% 44.6% 0.75× 2.97
H2 over 76.5 30.3% 33.6% 24.4% 1.38× 2.97
H2 under 63.5 22.5% 24.2% 34.7% 0.70× 4.13
H2 over 79.5 21.1% 24.2% 18.0% 1.35× 4.13
H2 under 59.5 12.4% 14.8% 23.0% 0.64× 6.76
H2 over 83.5 11.8% 14.8% 11.1% 1.33× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Miami Hurricanes leading at half time 92.8% 94.0% 56.4% 1.67× 1.06
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions leading at half time 5.7% 6.6% 39.9% 0.16× 15.26
Level at half time 1.4% 3.8% 3.7% 1.03× 26.44
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Miami Hurricanes +1.5 99.6% 97.4% 61.2% 1.59× 1.03
Miami Hurricanes +2.5 99.7% 97.4% 63.3% 1.54× 1.03
Miami Hurricanes +3.5 99.8% 97.4% 65.7% 1.48× 1.03
Miami Hurricanes +4.5 99.8% 97.4% 67.8% 1.44× 1.03
Miami Hurricanes +5.5 99.9% 97.4% 70.1% 1.39× 1.03
Miami Hurricanes +6.5 99.9% 97.4% 72.3% 1.35× 1.03
Miami Hurricanes +7.5 99.9% 97.4% 74.5% 1.31× 1.03
Miami Hurricanes +8.5 99.9% 97.4% 76.5% 1.27× 1.03
Miami Hurricanes +9.5 100.0% 97.4% 78.7% 1.24× 1.03
Miami Hurricanes +10.5 100.0% 97.4% 80.4% 1.21× 1.03
Miami Hurricanes +12.5 100.0% 97.4% 83.8% 1.16× 1.03
Miami Hurricanes +14.5 100.0% 97.4% 86.7% 1.12× 1.03
Miami Hurricanes +16.5 100.0% 97.4% 89.1% 1.09× 1.03
Miami Hurricanes +18.5 100.0% 97.4% 91.1% 1.07× 1.03
Miami Hurricanes +20.5 100.0% 97.4% 92.7% 1.05× 1.03
Miami Hurricanes −1.5 99.3% 97.4% 58.7% 1.66× 1.03
Miami Hurricanes −2.5 99.0% 97.4% 56.7% 1.72× 1.03
Miami Hurricanes −3.5 98.8% 97.4% 54.2% 1.80× 1.03
Miami Hurricanes −4.5 98.4% 97.4% 52.2% 1.87× 1.03
Miami Hurricanes −5.5 98.0% 97.4% 49.7% 1.96× 1.03
Miami Hurricanes −6.5 97.5% 97.4% 47.6% 2.05× 1.03
Miami Hurricanes −7.5 96.8% 97.4% 44.8% 2.18× 1.03
Miami Hurricanes −8.5 96.1% 97.4% 42.0% 2.32× 1.03
Miami Hurricanes −9.5 95.3% 97.4% 39.3% 2.48× 1.03
Miami Hurricanes −10.5 94.3% 91.1% 36.8% 2.48× 1.10
Miami Hurricanes −12.5 91.9% 91.1% 32.1% 2.84× 1.10
Miami Hurricanes −14.5 88.7% 85.9% 27.9% 3.08× 1.16
Miami Hurricanes −16.5 84.9% 81.1% 24.3% 3.34× 1.23
Miami Hurricanes −18.5 80.2% 81.1% 20.7% 3.92× 1.23
Miami Hurricanes −20.5 74.7% 71.6% 18.0% 3.98× 1.40
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions +20.5 25.3% 28.4% 82.0% 0.35× 3.53
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions +18.5 19.8% 18.9% 79.3% 0.24× 5.29
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions +16.5 15.1% 18.9% 75.7% 0.25× 5.30
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions +14.5 11.3% 14.1% 72.1% 0.20× 7.09
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions +12.5 8.1% 8.9% 67.9% 0.13× 11.25
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions +10.5 5.7% 8.9% 63.2% 0.14× 11.25
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions +9.5 4.7% 2.6% 60.7% 0.04× 38.72
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions +1.5 0.7% 2.6% 41.3% 0.06× 38.74
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions +2.5 1.0% 2.6% 43.3% 0.06× 38.74
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions +3.5 1.2% 2.6% 45.8% 0.06× 38.74
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions +4.5 1.6% 2.6% 47.8% 0.05× 38.73
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions +5.5 2.0% 2.6% 50.3% 0.05× 38.73
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions +6.5 2.5% 2.6% 52.4% 0.05× 38.73
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions +7.5 3.2% 2.6% 55.2% 0.05× 38.73
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions +8.5 3.9% 2.6% 58.0% 0.04× 38.73
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions −1.5 0.4% 2.6% 38.8% 0.07× 38.74
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions −2.5 0.3% 2.6% 36.7% 0.07× 38.74
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions −3.5 0.2% 2.6% 34.3% 0.08× 38.74
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions −4.5 0.2% 2.6% 32.2% 0.08× 38.74
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions −5.5 0.1% 2.6% 29.9% 0.09× 38.74
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions −6.5 0.1% 2.6% 27.7% 0.09× 38.74
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions −7.5 0.1% 2.6% 25.5% 0.10× 38.74
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions −8.5 0.1% 2.6% 23.5% 0.11× 38.74
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions −9.5 0.0% 2.6% 21.3% 0.12× 38.74
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions −10.5 0.0% 2.6% 19.6% 0.13× 38.74
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions −12.5 0.0% 2.6% 16.2% 0.16× 38.74
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions −14.5 0.0% 2.6% 13.3% 0.19× 38.74
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions −16.5 0.0% 2.6% 10.9% 0.24× 38.74
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions −18.5 0.0% 2.6% 8.9% 0.29× 38.74
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions −20.5 0.0% 2.6% 7.3% 0.35× 38.74
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 72.8% 67.1% 66.7% 1.01× 1.49
1st half highest scoring 27.2% 32.9% 33.3% 0.99× 3.04
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 highest scoring 34.7% 31.9% 31.2% 1.02× 3.14
Q3 highest scoring 33.0% 31.9% 31.3% 1.02× 3.14
Q1 highest scoring 16.9% 18.3% 19.6% 0.94× 5.46
Q2 highest scoring 15.4% 18.3% 17.9% 1.02× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Miami Hurricanes at HT / Miami Hurricanes at FT 92.6% 94.0% 48.3% 1.95× 1.06
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at HT / Miami Hurricanes at FT 5.4% 8.3% 9.8% 0.85× 12.10
Level at HT / Miami Hurricanes at FT 1.4% 2.1% 1.9% 1.09× 47.77
Miami Hurricanes at HT / Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at FT 0.2% 2.1% 8.2% 0.26× 47.79
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at HT / Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at FT 0.3% 2.1% 30.1% 0.07× 47.79
Level at HT / Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at FT 0.0% 2.1% 1.8% 1.20× 47.79
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Miami Hurricanes to win 99.5% 97.5% 59.9% 1.63× 1.03
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions to win 0.5% 2.5% 40.1% 0.06× 39.83
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Miami Hurricanes even 50.0% 50.5% 49.4% 1.02× 1.98
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions even 50.4% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
Total points odd 50.1% 50.5% 51.5% 0.98× 1.98
Miami Hurricanes odd 50.0% 49.5% 50.6% 0.98× 2.02
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions odd 49.6% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
Total points even 49.9% 49.5% 48.5% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 99.1% 97.0% 95.6% 1.02× 1.03
Match to go to overtime 0.9% 3.0% 4.4% 0.67× 33.60
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Miami Hurricanes to win Q1 82.9% 85.8% 54.7% 1.57× 1.17
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions to win Q1 13.5% 11.4% 40.4% 0.28× 8.74
Q1 tied 3.6% 4.2% 4.9% 0.85× 23.99
Q1 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 over 24.5 89.2% 87.4% 81.8% 1.07× 1.14
Q1 under 40.5 87.9% 87.4% 89.9% 0.97× 1.14
Q1 over 27.5 78.3% 76.9% 67.7% 1.14× 1.30
Q1 under 37.5 76.4% 76.9% 81.6% 0.94× 1.30
Q1 over 29.5 68.5% 67.6% 56.9% 1.19× 1.48
Q1 under 35.5 66.3% 67.6% 73.2% 0.92× 1.48
Q1 over 31.5 57.1% 58.6% 46.0% 1.27× 1.71
Q1 under 33.5 54.8% 52.7% 64.0% 0.82× 1.90
Q1 over 32.5 51.2% 52.7% 40.9% 1.29× 1.90
Q1 under 32.5 48.8% 47.3% 59.1% 0.80× 2.11
Q1 over 33.5 45.2% 47.3% 36.0% 1.31× 2.11
Q1 under 31.5 42.9% 41.4% 54.0% 0.77× 2.42
Q1 over 35.5 33.7% 32.4% 26.8% 1.21× 3.08
Q1 under 29.5 31.5% 32.4% 43.1% 0.75× 3.08
Q1 over 37.5 23.6% 23.1% 18.4% 1.26× 4.33
Q1 under 27.5 21.7% 23.1% 32.3% 0.71× 4.33
Q1 over 40.5 12.1% 12.6% 10.1% 1.25× 7.95
Q1 under 24.5 10.8% 12.6% 18.2% 0.69× 7.95
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Miami Hurricanes to win Q2 82.1% 84.9% 52.9% 1.61× 1.18
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions to win Q2 14.2% 7.8% 41.5% 0.19× 12.78
Q2 tied 3.7% 4.4% 5.7% 0.77× 22.92
Q2 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 under 40.5 88.9% 87.3% 90.8% 0.96× 1.15
Q2 over 24.5 88.2% 87.3% 80.7% 1.08× 1.15
Q2 under 37.5 78.0% 76.8% 82.3% 0.93× 1.30
Q2 over 27.5 76.8% 76.8% 66.7% 1.15× 1.30
Q2 under 35.5 68.1% 67.4% 74.6% 0.90× 1.49
Q2 over 29.5 66.6% 67.4% 55.8% 1.21× 1.49
Q2 under 33.5 56.8% 58.2% 65.6% 0.89× 1.72
Q2 over 31.5 55.1% 58.2% 44.3% 1.31× 1.72
Q2 under 32.5 50.9% 52.7% 60.8% 0.87× 1.90
Q2 over 32.5 49.1% 47.3% 39.2% 1.21× 2.11
Q2 under 31.5 44.9% 41.8% 55.7% 0.75× 2.39
Q2 over 33.5 43.2% 41.8% 34.4% 1.22× 2.39
Q2 under 29.5 33.4% 32.6% 44.2% 0.74× 3.06
Q2 over 35.5 31.9% 32.6% 25.4% 1.29× 3.06
Q2 under 27.5 23.2% 23.2% 33.3% 0.70× 4.31
Q2 over 37.5 22.0% 23.2% 17.7% 1.31× 4.31
Q2 under 24.5 11.8% 12.7% 19.3% 0.66× 7.89
Q2 over 40.5 11.1% 12.7% 9.2% 1.38× 7.90
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Miami Hurricanes to win Q3 84.4% 85.8% 53.3% 1.61× 1.17
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions to win Q3 12.3% 11.3% 41.8% 0.27× 8.83
Q3 tied 3.3% 4.3% 4.9% 0.86× 23.47
Q3 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 over 27.5 88.3% 87.2% 80.0% 1.09× 1.15
Q3 under 43.5 87.6% 87.2% 90.2% 0.97× 1.15
Q3 over 30.5 77.3% 77.3% 66.8% 1.16× 1.29
Q3 under 40.5 76.4% 77.3% 81.9% 0.94× 1.29
Q3 over 32.5 67.5% 67.8% 56.1% 1.21× 1.48
Q3 under 38.5 66.5% 67.8% 73.9% 0.92× 1.48
Q3 over 34.5 56.3% 58.4% 45.4% 1.29× 1.71
Q3 under 36.5 55.4% 58.4% 64.6% 0.90× 1.71
Q3 over 35.5 50.5% 52.3% 40.3% 1.30× 1.91
Q3 under 35.5 49.5% 47.7% 59.7% 0.80× 2.10
Q3 over 36.5 44.6% 41.6% 35.4% 1.18× 2.40
Q3 under 34.5 43.7% 41.6% 54.6% 0.76× 2.40
Q3 over 38.5 33.5% 32.2% 26.1% 1.23× 3.10
Q3 under 32.5 32.5% 32.2% 43.9% 0.73× 3.10
Q3 over 40.5 23.6% 22.7% 18.1% 1.25× 4.40
Q3 under 30.5 22.7% 22.7% 33.2% 0.69× 4.40
Q3 over 43.5 12.4% 12.8% 9.8% 1.30× 7.83
Q3 under 27.5 11.7% 12.8% 20.0% 0.64× 7.83
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Miami Hurricanes to win Q4 83.9% 75.0% 52.8% 1.42× 1.33
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions to win Q4 12.7% 17.8% 41.5% 0.43× 5.63
Q4 tied 3.3% 5.2% 5.7% 0.91× 19.32
Q4 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 over 27.5 87.1% 85.6% 78.9% 1.09× 1.17
Q4 under 43.5 86.0% 85.6% 88.6% 0.97× 1.17
Q4 over 30.5 76.2% 76.9% 66.3% 1.16× 1.30
Q4 under 40.5 74.8% 71.5% 80.6% 0.89× 1.40
Q4 over 32.5 66.9% 67.4% 55.4% 1.22× 1.48
Q4 under 38.5 65.3% 67.4% 73.1% 0.92× 1.48
Q4 over 34.5 56.3% 58.4% 45.6% 1.28× 1.71
Q4 under 36.5 54.7% 52.5% 64.3% 0.82× 1.91
Q4 over 35.5 50.8% 52.5% 40.6% 1.29× 1.91
Q4 under 35.5 49.2% 47.5% 59.4% 0.80× 2.11
Q4 over 36.5 45.3% 47.5% 35.7% 1.33× 2.11
Q4 under 34.5 43.7% 41.6% 54.4% 0.76× 2.40
Q4 over 38.5 34.7% 32.6% 26.9% 1.21× 3.07
Q4 under 32.5 33.1% 32.6% 44.6% 0.73× 3.07
Q4 over 40.5 25.2% 28.5% 19.4% 1.47× 3.51
Q4 under 30.5 23.8% 23.1% 33.7% 0.68× 4.33
Q4 over 43.5 14.0% 14.4% 11.4% 1.26× 6.95
Q4 under 27.5 12.9% 14.4% 21.1% 0.68× 6.95
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions over 44.5 88.5% 83.9% 92.5% 0.91× 1.19
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions under 64.5 88.4% 83.9% 56.9% 1.48× 1.19
Miami Hurricanes under 92.5 86.7% 83.9% 95.7% 0.88× 1.19
Miami Hurricanes over 72.5 84.3% 80.7% 34.3% 2.35× 1.24
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions under 61.5 80.6% 80.7% 47.9% 1.68× 1.24
Miami Hurricanes under 89.5 78.7% 75.1% 93.9% 0.80× 1.33
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions over 47.5 78.0% 75.1% 88.4% 0.85× 1.33
Miami Hurricanes over 75.5 75.5% 75.1% 26.8% 2.80× 1.33
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions under 59.5 73.9% 70.7% 41.2% 1.72× 1.41
Miami Hurricanes under 87.5 72.0% 70.7% 92.3% 0.77× 1.41
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions over 49.5 69.8% 66.4% 85.1% 0.78× 1.51
Miami Hurricanes over 77.5 68.3% 66.4% 22.6% 2.94× 1.51
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions under 57.5 66.1% 66.4% 34.9% 1.91× 1.51
Miami Hurricanes under 85.5 64.5% 61.2% 90.2% 0.68× 1.63
Miami Hurricanes over 79.5 60.4% 61.2% 18.7% 3.27× 1.63
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions over 51.5 60.9% 61.2% 81.0% 0.76× 1.63
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions under 55.5 57.5% 57.1% 29.2% 1.95× 1.75
Miami Hurricanes under 83.5 56.4% 57.1% 87.7% 0.65× 1.75
Miami Hurricanes over 81.5 52.1% 52.3% 15.4% 3.39× 1.91
Miami Hurricanes under 82.5 52.2% 52.3% 86.2% 0.61× 1.91
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions over 53.5 51.6% 52.3% 76.3% 0.68× 1.91
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions under 54.5 53.0% 52.3% 26.5% 1.97× 1.91
Miami Hurricanes under 81.5 47.9% 47.7% 84.6% 0.56× 2.09
Miami Hurricanes over 82.5 47.8% 47.7% 13.8% 3.47× 2.09
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions under 53.5 48.4% 47.7% 23.7% 2.01× 2.09
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions over 54.5 47.0% 47.7% 73.5% 0.65× 2.09
Miami Hurricanes over 83.5 43.6% 42.9% 12.3% 3.48× 2.33
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions over 55.5 42.5% 42.9% 70.8% 0.61× 2.33
Miami Hurricanes under 79.5 39.6% 38.8% 81.3% 0.48× 2.58
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions under 51.5 39.1% 38.8% 19.0% 2.04× 2.58
Miami Hurricanes over 85.5 35.5% 38.8% 9.8% 3.96× 2.58
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions over 57.5 33.9% 33.6% 65.1% 0.52× 2.98
Miami Hurricanes under 77.5 31.7% 33.6% 77.4% 0.43× 2.98
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions under 49.5 30.2% 33.6% 14.9% 2.25× 2.98
Miami Hurricanes over 87.5 28.0% 29.3% 7.7% 3.81× 3.42
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions over 59.5 26.1% 29.3% 58.8% 0.50× 3.42
Miami Hurricanes under 75.5 24.5% 24.9% 73.2% 0.34× 4.02
Miami Hurricanes over 89.5 21.3% 24.9% 6.1% 4.05× 4.02
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions under 47.5 22.0% 24.9% 11.6% 2.14× 4.02
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions over 61.5 19.4% 19.3% 52.1% 0.37× 5.18
Miami Hurricanes under 72.5 15.7% 19.3% 65.7% 0.29× 5.18
Miami Hurricanes over 92.5 13.3% 16.1% 4.3% 3.71× 6.21
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions under 44.5 11.5% 16.1% 7.5% 2.15× 6.21
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions over 64.5 11.6% 16.1% 43.2% 0.37× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 116.5 points 92.9% 88.8% 77.2% 1.15× 1.13
Under 156.5 points 92.1% 88.8% 91.3% 0.97× 1.13
Over 121.5 points 85.7% 85.0% 67.7% 1.26× 1.18
Under 151.5 points 85.8% 85.0% 87.3% 0.97× 1.18
Under 146.5 points 76.8% 75.6% 80.9% 0.93× 1.32
Over 126.5 points 75.4% 75.6% 57.4% 1.32× 1.32
Under 143.5 points 70.1% 70.8% 76.7% 0.92× 1.41
Over 129.5 points 67.9% 65.9% 50.5% 1.30× 1.52
Under 141.5 points 65.1% 65.9% 73.4% 0.90× 1.52
Over 131.5 points 62.5% 61.5% 46.1% 1.33× 1.63
Under 139.5 points 59.8% 56.5% 69.9% 0.81× 1.77
Over 133.5 points 56.9% 56.5% 42.0% 1.35× 1.77
Under 137.5 points 54.3% 52.3% 66.2% 0.79× 1.91
Under 136.5 points 51.5% 52.3% 64.2% 0.81× 1.91
Over 135.5 points 51.3% 52.3% 37.6% 1.39× 1.91
Under 135.5 points 48.7% 47.7% 62.4% 0.76× 2.10
Over 136.5 points 48.5% 47.7% 35.8% 1.33× 2.10
Over 137.5 points 45.7% 47.7% 33.8% 1.41× 2.10
Under 133.5 points 43.1% 43.5% 58.0% 0.75× 2.30
Over 139.5 points 40.2% 43.5% 30.1% 1.44× 2.30
Under 131.5 points 37.5% 38.5% 53.9% 0.71× 2.60
Over 141.5 points 34.9% 34.1% 26.6% 1.28× 2.93
Under 129.5 points 32.1% 34.1% 49.5% 0.69× 2.93
Over 143.5 points 30.0% 29.2% 23.3% 1.25× 3.43
Under 126.5 points 24.6% 24.4% 42.6% 0.57× 4.10
Over 146.5 points 23.2% 24.4% 19.1% 1.28× 4.10
Under 121.5 points 14.3% 15.0% 32.3% 0.46× 6.68
Over 151.5 points 14.2% 15.0% 12.8% 1.17× 6.68
Over 156.5 points 7.9% 11.2% 8.7% 1.29× 8.96
Under 116.5 points 7.1% 11.2% 22.8% 0.49× 8.97
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Miami Hurricanes to win both halves 86.9% 86.1% 36.0% 2.39× 1.16
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions to win both halves 0.1% 3.0% 20.4% 0.15× 33.84
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Miami Hurricanes by 26+ 58.1% 62.6% 12.6% 4.96× 1.60
Miami Hurricanes by 21-25 16.6% 16.8% 5.4% 3.11× 5.97
Miami Hurricanes by 16-20 12.2% 12.3% 8.0% 1.53× 8.11
Miami Hurricanes by 11-15 7.4% 7.5% 10.8% 0.69× 13.40
Miami Hurricanes by 6-10 3.7% 2.0% 12.9% 0.16× 49.30
Miami Hurricanes by 1-5 1.5% 2.0% 10.2% 0.20× 49.31
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions by 1-5 0.4% 2.0% 10.2% 0.20× 49.32
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions by 6-10 0.1% 2.0% 10.3% 0.20× 49.33
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions by 11-15 0.0% 2.0% 7.6% 0.27× 49.33
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions by 16-20 0.0% 2.0% 4.8% 0.43× 49.33
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions by 21-25 0.0% 2.0% 2.7% 0.76× 49.33
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions by 26+ 0.0% 2.0% 4.6% 0.44× 49.33
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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