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Milwaukee Bucks v Toronto Raptors — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 7 November 2026 · NBA · 2027

NBA results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Milwaukee Bucks win
28.8%
Draw
0.0%
Toronto Raptors win
71.3%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 107.75–115.67 108-116 0% 50% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Toronto Raptors to score 100+ 91.8% 90.3% 85.9% 1.05× 1.11
Milwaukee Bucks to score 100+ 75.5% 76.9% 89.3% 0.86× 1.30
Toronto Raptors to score 110+ 70.4% 72.3% 60.9% 1.19× 1.38
Both sides to score 100+ 70.3% 72.3% 77.5% 0.93× 1.38
Milwaukee Bucks to score 110+ 43.7% 41.9% 67.0% 0.63× 2.39
Toronto Raptors to score 120+ 37.5% 36.0% 29.7% 1.21× 2.78
Milwaukee Bucks to score 120+ 15.8% 17.5% 36.5% 0.48× 5.71
Toronto Raptors to score 130+ 12.0% 13.8% 10.0% 1.39× 7.24
Milwaukee Bucks to score 130+ 3.2% 0.4% 12.8% 0.03× 282.72
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Toronto Raptors to win H1 62.5% 62.2% 44.1% 1.41× 1.61
Milwaukee Bucks to win H1 34.2% 33.1% 52.8% 0.63× 3.02
H1 tied 3.3% 3.9% 3.1% 1.25× 25.87
H1 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 125.5 83.6% 82.5% 80.7% 1.02× 1.21
H1 over 101.5 80.7% 82.5% 84.9% 0.97× 1.21
H1 under 121.5 74.9% 73.5% 71.2% 1.03× 1.36
H1 over 105.5 71.2% 73.5% 75.8% 0.97× 1.36
H1 under 118.5 67.1% 67.4% 62.9% 1.07× 1.48
H1 over 108.5 62.8% 62.7% 67.7% 0.93× 1.59
H1 under 116.5 61.3% 62.7% 56.6% 1.11× 1.59
H1 over 110.5 56.9% 58.2% 61.9% 0.94× 1.72
H1 under 114.5 55.3% 58.2% 50.4% 1.16× 1.72
H1 under 113.5 52.3% 52.6% 47.6% 1.11× 1.90
H1 over 112.5 50.8% 52.6% 55.8% 0.94× 1.90
H1 under 112.5 49.2% 47.4% 44.2% 1.07× 2.11
H1 over 113.5 47.7% 47.4% 52.4% 0.90× 2.11
H1 over 114.5 44.7% 41.8% 49.6% 0.84× 2.39
H1 under 110.5 43.1% 41.8% 38.1% 1.10× 2.39
H1 over 116.5 38.7% 37.3% 43.4% 0.86× 2.68
H1 under 108.5 37.2% 37.3% 32.3% 1.15× 2.68
H1 over 118.5 32.9% 32.6% 37.1% 0.88× 3.07
H1 under 105.5 28.8% 26.5% 24.2% 1.09× 3.77
H1 over 121.5 25.1% 26.5% 28.8% 0.92× 3.77
H1 under 101.5 19.3% 17.5% 15.1% 1.16× 5.72
H1 over 125.5 16.4% 17.5% 19.3% 0.90× 5.73
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Toronto Raptors to win H2 62.3% 58.8% 44.7% 1.32× 1.70
Milwaukee Bucks to win H2 34.4% 36.3% 51.6% 0.70× 2.75
H2 tied 3.3% 3.9% 3.7% 1.06× 25.36
H2 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 over 98.5 82.7% 81.8% 86.2% 0.95× 1.22
H2 under 122.5 82.1% 81.8% 74.4% 1.10× 1.22
H2 over 102.5 73.7% 72.2% 78.5% 0.92× 1.39
H2 under 118.5 72.9% 72.2% 63.6% 1.14× 1.39
H2 over 105.5 65.6% 66.4% 71.3% 0.93× 1.51
H2 under 115.5 64.6% 61.6% 55.4% 1.11× 1.62
H2 over 107.5 59.7% 57.3% 66.2% 0.87× 1.74
H2 under 113.5 58.7% 57.3% 50.1% 1.14× 1.74
H2 over 109.5 53.6% 52.4% 60.9% 0.86× 1.91
H2 under 111.5 52.6% 52.4% 44.7% 1.17× 1.91
H2 over 110.5 50.5% 52.4% 58.1% 0.90× 1.91
H2 under 110.5 49.5% 47.6% 41.9% 1.14× 2.10
H2 over 111.5 47.4% 47.6% 55.3% 0.86× 2.10
H2 under 109.5 46.4% 47.6% 39.1% 1.22× 2.10
H2 over 113.5 41.3% 42.7% 49.9% 0.85× 2.34
H2 under 107.5 40.3% 42.7% 33.8% 1.26× 2.35
H2 over 115.5 35.4% 38.4% 44.6% 0.86× 2.61
H2 under 105.5 34.4% 33.6% 28.7% 1.17× 2.97
H2 over 118.5 27.1% 27.8% 36.4% 0.76× 3.59
H2 under 102.5 26.3% 27.8% 21.5% 1.29× 3.59
H2 over 122.5 17.9% 18.2% 25.6% 0.71× 5.50
H2 under 98.5 17.3% 18.2% 13.8% 1.31× 5.50
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Toronto Raptors leading at half time 62.5% 62.5% 44.1% 1.42× 1.60
Milwaukee Bucks leading at half time 34.2% 32.8% 52.8% 0.62× 3.05
Level at half time 3.3% 3.8% 3.1% 1.22× 26.41
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Toronto Raptors +18.5 96.5% 97.4% 86.4% 1.13× 1.03
Toronto Raptors +20.5 97.4% 97.4% 89.1% 1.09× 1.03
Toronto Raptors +16.5 95.3% 97.4% 83.5% 1.17× 1.03
Toronto Raptors +14.5 93.8% 91.1% 80.1% 1.14× 1.10
Toronto Raptors +12.5 91.9% 91.1% 76.0% 1.20× 1.10
Toronto Raptors +10.5 89.6% 85.9% 71.0% 1.21× 1.16
Toronto Raptors +9.5 88.2% 85.9% 68.7% 1.25× 1.16
Toronto Raptors +8.5 86.8% 85.9% 65.9% 1.30× 1.16
Toronto Raptors +7.5 85.3% 85.9% 63.0% 1.36× 1.16
Toronto Raptors +6.5 83.6% 81.1% 60.0% 1.35× 1.23
Toronto Raptors +5.5 81.8% 81.1% 57.1% 1.42× 1.23
Milwaukee Bucks +20.5 80.3% 81.1% 93.1% 0.87× 1.23
Toronto Raptors +4.5 79.9% 76.5% 54.1% 1.41× 1.31
Toronto Raptors +3.5 77.9% 76.5% 51.6% 1.48× 1.31
Milwaukee Bucks +18.5 76.2% 76.5% 91.5% 0.84× 1.31
Toronto Raptors +2.5 75.8% 76.5% 49.1% 1.56× 1.31
Toronto Raptors +1.5 73.6% 71.6% 46.3% 1.55× 1.40
Milwaukee Bucks +16.5 71.6% 71.6% 89.7% 0.80× 1.40
Toronto Raptors −1.5 68.7% 66.7% 42.1% 1.58× 1.50
Milwaukee Bucks +14.5 66.7% 66.7% 87.0% 0.77× 1.50
Toronto Raptors −2.5 66.1% 66.7% 39.5% 1.69× 1.50
Toronto Raptors −3.5 63.5% 61.9% 36.9% 1.68× 1.62
Milwaukee Bucks +12.5 61.5% 61.9% 83.9% 0.74× 1.62
Toronto Raptors −4.5 60.8% 61.9% 34.3% 1.81× 1.62
Toronto Raptors −5.5 58.0% 57.1% 32.0% 1.78× 1.75
Milwaukee Bucks +10.5 56.0% 57.1% 80.3% 0.71× 1.75
Toronto Raptors −6.5 55.2% 57.1% 29.4% 1.94× 1.75
Milwaukee Bucks +9.5 53.2% 52.4% 78.1% 0.67× 1.91
Toronto Raptors −7.5 52.4% 52.4% 27.0% 1.94× 1.91
Milwaukee Bucks +8.5 50.4% 52.4% 75.7% 0.69× 1.91
Toronto Raptors −8.5 49.6% 47.6% 24.3% 1.96× 2.10
Milwaukee Bucks +7.5 47.6% 47.6% 73.0% 0.65× 2.10
Toronto Raptors −9.5 46.8% 47.6% 21.9% 2.18× 2.10
Milwaukee Bucks +6.5 44.8% 42.9% 70.6% 0.61× 2.33
Toronto Raptors −10.5 44.0% 42.9% 19.7% 2.18× 2.33
Milwaukee Bucks +5.5 42.0% 42.9% 68.0% 0.63× 2.33
Milwaukee Bucks +4.5 39.2% 38.1% 65.7% 0.58× 2.63
Toronto Raptors −12.5 38.5% 38.1% 16.1% 2.36× 2.63
Milwaukee Bucks +3.5 36.5% 38.1% 63.1% 0.60× 2.63
Toronto Raptors −14.5 33.3% 33.3% 13.0% 2.56× 3.01
Milwaukee Bucks +2.5 33.9% 33.3% 60.5% 0.55× 3.01
Milwaukee Bucks +1.5 31.3% 33.3% 57.9% 0.57× 3.01
Toronto Raptors −16.5 28.4% 28.4% 10.3% 2.74× 3.53
Milwaukee Bucks −1.5 26.4% 28.4% 53.7% 0.53× 3.53
Toronto Raptors −18.5 23.8% 23.5% 8.5% 2.76× 4.25
Milwaukee Bucks −2.5 24.2% 23.5% 50.9% 0.46× 4.25
Milwaukee Bucks −3.5 22.1% 23.5% 48.4% 0.49× 4.25
Milwaukee Bucks −4.5 20.1% 23.5% 46.0% 0.51× 4.25
Toronto Raptors −20.5 19.8% 18.9% 6.9% 2.74× 5.29
Milwaukee Bucks −5.5 18.2% 18.9% 42.9% 0.44× 5.29
Milwaukee Bucks −6.5 16.4% 18.9% 40.0% 0.47× 5.30
Milwaukee Bucks −7.5 14.7% 14.1% 37.0% 0.38× 7.09
Milwaukee Bucks −9.5 11.8% 14.1% 31.3% 0.45× 7.09
Milwaukee Bucks −8.5 13.2% 14.1% 34.1% 0.41× 7.09
Milwaukee Bucks −10.5 10.4% 14.1% 29.0% 0.49× 7.09
Milwaukee Bucks −12.5 8.1% 8.9% 24.0% 0.37× 11.25
Milwaukee Bucks −14.5 6.2% 8.9% 19.9% 0.45× 11.25
Milwaukee Bucks −16.5 4.7% 2.6% 16.5% 0.16× 38.72
Milwaukee Bucks −18.5 3.5% 2.6% 13.6% 0.19× 38.73
Milwaukee Bucks −20.5 2.6% 2.6% 10.9% 0.24× 38.73
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1st half highest scoring 56.5% 52.6% 53.5% 0.98× 1.90
2nd half highest scoring 43.5% 47.4% 46.5% 1.02× 2.11
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 highest scoring 28.2% 27.4% 29.2% 0.94× 3.65
Q3 highest scoring 27.8% 27.4% 27.5% 1.00× 3.65
Q2 highest scoring 26.5% 27.4% 26.3% 1.04× 3.65
Q4 highest scoring 17.4% 18.3% 17.0% 1.08× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Toronto Raptors at HT / Toronto Raptors at FT 54.2% 51.1% 30.9% 1.66× 1.96
Milwaukee Bucks at HT / Milwaukee Bucks at FT 19.4% 15.5% 40.8% 0.38× 6.47
Milwaukee Bucks at HT / Toronto Raptors at FT 14.9% 12.2% 12.0% 1.02× 8.17
Toronto Raptors at HT / Milwaukee Bucks at FT 8.3% 8.3% 13.3% 0.62× 12.08
Level at HT / Toronto Raptors at FT 2.2% 2.1% 1.4% 1.50× 47.75
Level at HT / Milwaukee Bucks at FT 1.1% 2.1% 1.7% 1.22× 47.77
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Toronto Raptors to win 71.2% 68.7% 44.3% 1.55× 1.46
Milwaukee Bucks to win 28.8% 31.3% 55.7% 0.56× 3.20
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Milwaukee Bucks even 50.0% 50.5% 49.7% 1.02× 1.98
Toronto Raptors even 50.0% 50.5% 50.3% 1.00× 1.98
Total points odd 51.2% 50.5% 51.0% 0.99× 1.98
Milwaukee Bucks odd 50.0% 49.5% 50.3% 0.98× 2.02
Toronto Raptors odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.7% 1.00× 2.02
Total points even 48.8% 49.5% 49.0% 1.01× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 93.9% 94.0% 94.8% 0.99× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 6.1% 6.0% 5.2% 1.16× 16.66
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Toronto Raptors to win Q1 57.4% 57.3% 44.1% 1.30× 1.75
Milwaukee Bucks to win Q1 37.9% 38.2% 51.3% 0.74× 2.62
Q1 tied 4.6% 4.2% 4.6% 0.90× 23.95
Q1 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 over 48.5 82.8% 82.8% 85.6% 0.97× 1.21
Q1 under 64.5 82.6% 82.8% 80.1% 1.03× 1.21
Q1 over 51.5 72.3% 72.7% 76.0% 0.96× 1.38
Q1 under 61.5 72.1% 72.7% 68.5% 1.06× 1.38
Q1 over 53.5 63.9% 61.7% 68.2% 0.90× 1.62
Q1 under 59.5 63.7% 61.7% 60.0% 1.03× 1.62
Q1 over 55.5 54.8% 52.7% 59.2% 0.89× 1.90
Q1 under 57.5 54.6% 52.7% 50.4% 1.04× 1.90
Q1 over 56.5 50.1% 52.7% 54.6% 0.96× 1.90
Q1 under 56.5 49.9% 47.3% 45.4% 1.04× 2.11
Q1 over 57.5 45.4% 47.3% 49.6% 0.96× 2.11
Q1 under 55.5 45.2% 47.3% 40.8% 1.16× 2.11
Q1 over 59.5 36.3% 38.3% 40.0% 0.96× 2.61
Q1 under 53.5 36.1% 38.3% 31.8% 1.21× 2.61
Q1 over 61.5 27.9% 27.3% 31.5% 0.87× 3.66
Q1 under 51.5 27.7% 27.3% 24.0% 1.14× 3.66
Q1 over 64.5 17.4% 17.2% 19.9% 0.86× 5.83
Q1 under 48.5 17.2% 17.2% 14.4% 1.19× 5.83
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Toronto Raptors to win Q2 57.3% 59.4% 46.2% 1.28× 1.68
Milwaukee Bucks to win Q2 38.1% 35.8% 49.3% 0.73× 2.80
Q2 tied 4.6% 4.4% 4.5% 0.98× 22.89
Q2 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 under 64.5 83.3% 83.0% 80.9% 1.03× 1.21
Q2 over 48.5 81.7% 83.0% 84.7% 0.98× 1.21
Q2 under 61.5 73.1% 72.0% 70.4% 1.02× 1.39
Q2 over 51.5 71.0% 72.0% 74.2% 0.97× 1.39
Q2 under 59.5 64.9% 60.7% 61.9% 0.98× 1.65
Q2 over 53.5 62.6% 60.7% 65.8% 0.92× 1.65
Q2 under 57.5 55.9% 58.2% 52.7% 1.10× 1.72
Q2 over 55.5 53.4% 52.7% 56.3% 0.94× 1.90
Q2 under 56.5 51.2% 52.7% 48.3% 1.09× 1.90
Q2 over 56.5 48.8% 47.3% 51.7% 0.92× 2.11
Q2 under 55.5 46.6% 47.3% 43.7% 1.08× 2.11
Q2 over 57.5 44.1% 41.8% 47.3% 0.89× 2.39
Q2 under 53.5 37.4% 39.3% 34.2% 1.15× 2.55
Q2 over 59.5 35.1% 39.3% 38.1% 1.03× 2.55
Q2 under 51.5 29.0% 28.0% 25.8% 1.09× 3.57
Q2 over 61.5 26.9% 28.0% 29.6% 0.95× 3.57
Q2 under 48.5 18.3% 17.0% 15.3% 1.11× 5.88
Q2 over 64.5 16.7% 17.0% 19.1% 0.89× 5.88
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Toronto Raptors to win Q3 57.4% 56.8% 44.3% 1.28× 1.76
Milwaukee Bucks to win Q3 38.1% 38.8% 50.9% 0.76× 2.58
Q3 tied 4.6% 4.3% 4.9% 0.88× 23.43
Q3 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 over 48.5 83.5% 82.3% 85.6% 0.96× 1.22
Q3 under 64.5 82.4% 82.3% 79.2% 1.04× 1.22
Q3 over 51.5 73.1% 71.8% 76.1% 0.94× 1.39
Q3 under 61.5 71.7% 71.8% 67.7% 1.06× 1.39
Q3 over 53.5 64.7% 62.0% 68.3% 0.91× 1.61
Q3 under 59.5 63.1% 62.0% 59.0% 1.05× 1.61
Q3 over 55.5 55.6% 58.4% 59.9% 0.97× 1.71
Q3 under 57.5 53.9% 52.3% 49.8% 1.05× 1.91
Q3 over 56.5 50.9% 52.3% 55.0% 0.95× 1.91
Q3 under 56.5 49.1% 47.7% 45.0% 1.06× 2.10
Q3 over 57.5 46.1% 47.7% 50.2% 0.95× 2.10
Q3 under 55.5 44.4% 41.6% 40.1% 1.04× 2.40
Q3 over 59.5 36.9% 38.1% 41.0% 0.93× 2.63
Q3 under 53.5 35.3% 38.0% 31.7% 1.20× 2.63
Q3 over 61.5 28.3% 28.2% 32.3% 0.87× 3.55
Q3 under 51.5 26.9% 28.2% 23.9% 1.18× 3.55
Q3 over 64.5 17.6% 17.7% 20.8% 0.85× 5.66
Q3 under 48.5 16.5% 17.7% 14.4% 1.23× 5.66
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Toronto Raptors to win Q4 57.1% 52.1% 46.4% 1.12× 1.92
Milwaukee Bucks to win Q4 38.1% 42.4% 48.3% 0.88× 2.36
Q4 tied 4.8% 5.2% 5.3% 0.98× 19.28
Q4 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 under 62.5 83.7% 82.0% 80.4% 1.02× 1.22
Q4 over 46.5 80.6% 82.0% 81.7% 1.00× 1.22
Q4 under 59.5 73.8% 71.5% 70.2% 1.02× 1.40
Q4 over 49.5 69.7% 67.4% 72.3% 0.93× 1.48
Q4 under 57.5 65.8% 67.4% 61.9% 1.09× 1.48
Q4 over 51.5 61.2% 61.4% 64.7% 0.95× 1.63
Q4 under 55.5 57.0% 58.4% 52.9% 1.10× 1.71
Q4 over 53.5 52.2% 52.5% 55.7% 0.94× 1.91
Q4 under 54.5 52.4% 52.5% 48.6% 1.08× 1.91
Q4 under 53.5 47.8% 47.5% 44.3% 1.07× 2.11
Q4 over 54.5 47.6% 47.5% 51.4% 0.92× 2.11
Q4 over 55.5 43.0% 41.6% 47.1% 0.88× 2.40
Q4 under 51.5 38.8% 38.6% 35.3% 1.09× 2.59
Q4 over 57.5 34.2% 32.6% 38.1% 0.86× 3.07
Q4 under 49.5 30.3% 32.6% 27.7% 1.18× 3.07
Q4 over 59.5 26.2% 28.5% 29.8% 0.96× 3.51
Q4 under 46.5 19.4% 18.0% 18.3% 0.98× 5.56
Q4 over 62.5 16.3% 18.0% 19.6% 0.92× 5.56
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Toronto Raptors under 126.5 82.1% 80.7% 85.3% 0.95× 1.24
Milwaukee Bucks over 97.5 80.5% 80.7% 91.8% 0.88× 1.24
Milwaukee Bucks under 117.5 79.8% 75.1% 57.8% 1.30× 1.33
Toronto Raptors over 106.5 78.6% 75.1% 68.9% 1.09× 1.33
Toronto Raptors under 123.5 74.5% 70.7% 79.5% 0.89× 1.41
Milwaukee Bucks over 100.5 72.7% 70.7% 87.7% 0.81× 1.41
Milwaukee Bucks under 114.5 71.9% 70.7% 48.6% 1.45× 1.41
Toronto Raptors over 109.5 70.4% 70.7% 60.9% 1.16× 1.41
Toronto Raptors under 121.5 68.7% 66.4% 74.7% 0.89× 1.51
Milwaukee Bucks over 102.5 66.8% 66.4% 84.2% 0.79× 1.51
Milwaukee Bucks under 112.5 66.0% 66.4% 42.3% 1.57× 1.51
Toronto Raptors over 111.5 64.3% 61.2% 54.6% 1.12× 1.63
Toronto Raptors under 119.5 62.5% 61.2% 70.3% 0.87× 1.63
Milwaukee Bucks over 104.5 60.5% 61.2% 79.8% 0.77× 1.63
Milwaukee Bucks under 110.5 59.6% 57.1% 35.9% 1.59× 1.75
Toronto Raptors over 113.5 57.8% 57.1% 48.0% 1.19× 1.75
Toronto Raptors under 117.5 55.8% 57.1% 64.4% 0.89× 1.75
Milwaukee Bucks over 106.5 53.8% 52.3% 75.1% 0.70× 1.91
Milwaukee Bucks under 108.5 52.9% 52.3% 30.1% 1.73× 1.91
Toronto Raptors over 115.5 51.0% 52.3% 41.4% 1.26× 1.91
Toronto Raptors under 116.5 52.4% 52.3% 61.5% 0.85× 1.91
Milwaukee Bucks over 107.5 50.4% 52.3% 72.7% 0.72× 1.91
Milwaukee Bucks under 107.5 49.6% 47.7% 27.3% 1.75× 2.09
Milwaukee Bucks over 108.5 47.1% 47.7% 69.9% 0.68× 2.09
Toronto Raptors under 115.5 49.0% 47.7% 58.6% 0.82× 2.09
Toronto Raptors over 116.5 47.6% 47.7% 38.5% 1.24× 2.09
Milwaukee Bucks under 106.5 46.2% 47.7% 24.9% 1.92× 2.09
Toronto Raptors over 117.5 44.2% 42.9% 35.6% 1.20× 2.33
Toronto Raptors under 113.5 42.2% 42.9% 52.0% 0.82× 2.33
Milwaukee Bucks over 110.5 40.4% 42.9% 64.1% 0.67× 2.33
Milwaukee Bucks under 104.5 39.5% 38.8% 20.2% 1.92× 2.58
Toronto Raptors over 119.5 37.5% 38.8% 29.7% 1.31× 2.58
Toronto Raptors under 111.5 35.7% 38.8% 45.4% 0.85× 2.58
Milwaukee Bucks under 102.5 33.2% 33.6% 15.8% 2.13× 2.98
Milwaukee Bucks over 112.5 34.0% 33.6% 57.7% 0.58× 2.98
Toronto Raptors over 121.5 31.3% 33.6% 25.3% 1.33× 2.98
Toronto Raptors under 109.5 29.6% 29.3% 39.1% 0.75× 3.42
Milwaukee Bucks under 100.5 27.3% 29.3% 12.3% 2.38× 3.42
Milwaukee Bucks over 114.5 28.1% 29.3% 51.4% 0.57× 3.42
Toronto Raptors over 123.5 25.5% 29.3% 20.5% 1.43× 3.42
Toronto Raptors under 106.5 21.4% 24.9% 31.1% 0.80× 4.02
Milwaukee Bucks over 117.5 20.2% 24.9% 42.2% 0.59× 4.02
Milwaukee Bucks under 97.5 19.5% 19.3% 8.2% 2.36× 5.18
Toronto Raptors over 126.5 17.9% 19.3% 14.7% 1.31× 5.18
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 243.5 points 86.3% 85.0% 78.2% 1.09× 1.18
Over 203.5 points 86.0% 85.0% 89.8% 0.95× 1.18
Under 238.5 points 79.4% 75.6% 70.9% 1.07× 1.32
Over 208.5 points 79.2% 75.6% 84.1% 0.90× 1.32
Over 213.5 points 70.5% 70.8% 76.4% 0.93× 1.41
Under 233.5 points 70.8% 70.8% 61.4% 1.15× 1.41
Over 216.5 points 64.7% 61.5% 71.6% 0.86× 1.63
Under 230.5 points 65.0% 61.5% 55.4% 1.11× 1.63
Over 218.5 points 60.6% 61.5% 67.8% 0.91× 1.63
Under 228.5 points 60.8% 61.5% 51.3% 1.20× 1.63
Over 220.5 points 56.3% 56.5% 64.2% 0.88× 1.77
Under 226.5 points 56.6% 56.5% 47.3% 1.20× 1.77
Over 222.5 points 52.0% 52.3% 60.4% 0.87× 1.91
Under 224.5 points 52.3% 52.3% 43.5% 1.20× 1.91
Under 223.5 points 50.2% 52.3% 41.7% 1.25× 1.91
Over 223.5 points 49.8% 47.7% 58.3% 0.82× 2.10
Under 222.5 points 48.0% 47.7% 39.6% 1.20× 2.10
Over 224.5 points 47.7% 47.7% 56.5% 0.84× 2.10
Under 220.5 points 43.7% 43.5% 35.8% 1.21× 2.30
Over 226.5 points 43.4% 43.5% 52.7% 0.82× 2.30
Under 218.5 points 39.4% 38.5% 32.2% 1.20× 2.60
Over 228.5 points 39.2% 38.5% 48.7% 0.79× 2.60
Under 216.5 points 35.3% 38.5% 28.4% 1.36× 2.60
Over 230.5 points 35.0% 38.5% 44.6% 0.86× 2.60
Under 213.5 points 29.5% 29.2% 23.6% 1.24× 3.43
Over 233.5 points 29.2% 29.2% 38.6% 0.75× 3.43
Under 208.5 points 20.8% 24.4% 15.9% 1.53× 4.10
Over 238.5 points 20.6% 24.4% 29.1% 0.84× 4.10
Under 203.5 points 14.0% 15.0% 10.2% 1.47× 6.68
Over 243.5 points 13.7% 15.0% 21.8% 0.69× 6.68
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Toronto Raptors to win both halves 36.9% 36.3% 17.8% 2.03× 2.76
Milwaukee Bucks to win both halves 9.9% 8.9% 25.2% 0.35× 11.30
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Toronto Raptors by 1-5 13.2% 12.3% 12.3% 1.01× 8.11
Toronto Raptors by 6-10 14.0% 12.3% 12.3% 1.00× 8.11
Toronto Raptors by 11-15 13.2% 12.3% 8.0% 1.54× 8.11
Milwaukee Bucks by 1-5 10.6% 12.3% 12.8% 0.96× 8.11
Toronto Raptors by 16-20 11.0% 12.3% 4.9% 2.54× 8.11
Toronto Raptors by 26+ 11.5% 12.3% 3.9% 3.19× 8.11
Toronto Raptors by 21-25 8.2% 7.5% 3.0% 2.45× 13.40
Milwaukee Bucks by 6-10 7.7% 7.5% 13.9% 0.54× 13.40
Milwaukee Bucks by 11-15 5.0% 7.5% 10.8% 0.69× 13.41
Milwaukee Bucks by 16-20 2.9% 2.0% 7.3% 0.28× 49.30
Milwaukee Bucks by 21-25 1.5% 2.0% 4.7% 0.43× 49.32
Milwaukee Bucks by 26+ 1.1% 2.0% 6.2% 0.33× 49.32
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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