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Minnesota Golden Gophers v California Golden Bears — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 28 November 2026 · NCAAB · 2027

NCAAB results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Minnesota Golden Gophers win
58.5%
Draw
0.0%
California Golden Bears win
41.5%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 70.37–68.15 70-68 0% 50% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Minnesota Golden Gophers to score 100+ 0.1% 0.4% 3.4% 0.10× 283.33
Minnesota Golden Gophers to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% 0.52× 283.36
Minnesota Golden Gophers to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.87× 283.36
Minnesota Golden Gophers to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 19.47× 283.36
California Golden Bears to score 100+ 0.1% 0.4% 1.1% 0.33× 283.35
California Golden Bears to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1.95× 283.36
California Golden Bears to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 12.98× 283.36
California Golden Bears to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 38.95× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.87× 283.36
H1 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Minnesota Golden Gophers to win H1 52.7% 51.9% 57.9% 0.90× 1.93
Minnesota Golden Gophers to win H1 52.7% 51.9% 57.9% 0.90× 1.93
California Golden Bears to win H1 42.8% 42.7% 38.2% 1.12× 2.34
California Golden Bears to win H1 42.8% 42.7% 38.2% 1.12× 2.34
H1 tied 4.5% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.85
H1 tied 4.5% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.85
H1 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 over 53.5 87.2% 87.7% 92.6% 0.95× 1.14
H1 under 77.5 87.0% 87.7% 78.3% 1.12× 1.14
H1 over 57.5 78.3% 77.4% 85.5% 0.91× 1.29
H1 under 73.5 78.0% 77.4% 66.6% 1.16× 1.29
H1 over 57.5 77.6% 77.4% 85.5% 0.91× 1.29
H1 under 73.5 77.3% 77.4% 66.6% 1.16× 1.29
H1 over 60.5 68.2% 67.4% 77.9% 0.86× 1.48
H1 over 60.5 68.8% 67.4% 77.9% 0.86× 1.48
H1 under 70.5 68.5% 67.4% 56.5% 1.19× 1.48
H1 under 70.5 68.0% 67.4% 56.5% 1.19× 1.48
H1 over 62.5 61.3% 62.7% 72.0% 0.87× 1.59
H1 under 68.5 61.0% 62.7% 49.3% 1.27× 1.59
H1 over 62.5 61.6% 62.7% 72.0% 0.87× 1.59
H1 under 68.5 61.3% 62.7% 49.3% 1.27× 1.59
H1 over 64.5 53.9% 52.6% 65.3% 0.81× 1.90
H1 over 64.5 54.0% 52.6% 65.3% 0.81× 1.90
H1 under 66.5 53.7% 52.6% 41.8% 1.26× 1.90
H1 under 66.5 53.6% 52.6% 41.8% 1.26× 1.90
H1 over 65.5 50.1% 52.6% 61.9% 0.85× 1.90
H1 over 65.5 50.1% 52.6% 61.9% 0.85× 1.90
H1 under 65.5 49.9% 47.4% 38.1% 1.24× 2.11
H1 under 65.5 49.9% 47.4% 38.1% 1.24× 2.11
H1 over 66.5 46.4% 47.4% 58.2% 0.81× 2.11
H1 under 64.5 46.1% 47.4% 34.8% 1.36× 2.11
H1 under 64.5 46.0% 47.4% 34.8% 1.36× 2.11
H1 over 66.5 46.3% 47.4% 58.2% 0.81× 2.11
H1 under 62.5 38.7% 37.3% 28.0% 1.33× 2.68
H1 over 68.5 39.0% 37.3% 50.7% 0.74× 2.68
H1 under 62.5 38.4% 37.3% 28.0% 1.33× 2.68
H1 over 68.5 38.7% 37.3% 50.7% 0.74× 2.68
H1 over 70.5 32.0% 32.6% 43.5% 0.75× 3.07
H1 under 60.5 31.8% 32.6% 22.1% 1.48× 3.07
H1 under 60.5 31.2% 32.6% 22.1% 1.48× 3.07
H1 over 70.5 31.5% 32.6% 43.5% 0.75× 3.07
H1 under 57.5 22.4% 22.6% 14.5% 1.56× 4.43
H1 over 73.5 22.7% 22.6% 33.4% 0.68× 4.43
H1 under 57.5 21.7% 22.6% 14.5% 1.56× 4.43
H1 over 73.5 22.0% 22.6% 33.4% 0.68× 4.43
H1 under 53.5 12.8% 12.3% 7.4% 1.66× 8.14
H1 over 77.5 13.0% 12.3% 21.7% 0.57× 8.14
H2 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Minnesota Golden Gophers to win H2 53.1% 51.2% 57.5% 0.89× 1.95
Minnesota Golden Gophers to win H2 53.1% 51.2% 56.9% 0.90× 1.95
California Golden Bears to win H2 42.5% 43.5% 38.5% 1.13× 2.30
California Golden Bears to win H2 42.5% 43.5% 38.9% 1.12× 2.30
H2 tied 4.3% 3.9% 4.1% 0.97× 25.35
H2 tied 4.3% 3.9% 4.2% 0.95× 25.35
H2 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 85.5 86.6% 85.2% 73.3% 1.16× 1.17
H2 over 61.5 84.8% 81.8% 91.4% 0.90× 1.22
H2 under 81.5 78.0% 75.8% 65.8% 1.15× 1.32
H2 under 81.5 77.4% 75.8% 62.2% 1.22× 1.32
H2 over 65.5 75.5% 75.8% 83.1% 0.91× 1.32
H2 over 65.5 74.9% 72.2% 84.5% 0.85× 1.39
H2 under 78.5 68.6% 66.4% 53.0% 1.25× 1.51
H2 under 78.5 69.1% 66.4% 56.4% 1.18× 1.51
H2 over 68.5 66.1% 66.4% 75.7% 0.88× 1.51
H2 over 68.5 65.7% 66.4% 77.5% 0.86× 1.51
H2 under 76.5 62.4% 61.6% 49.7% 1.24× 1.62
H2 under 76.5 62.1% 61.6% 46.6% 1.32× 1.62
H2 over 70.5 59.0% 57.3% 71.9% 0.80× 1.74
H2 over 70.5 59.2% 57.3% 69.8% 0.82× 1.74
H2 under 74.5 55.1% 57.3% 40.0% 1.43× 1.74
H2 under 74.5 55.3% 57.3% 43.0% 1.33× 1.74
H2 over 72.5 51.9% 52.4% 65.9% 0.79× 1.91
H2 under 73.5 51.6% 52.4% 36.9% 1.42× 1.91
H2 over 72.5 52.0% 52.4% 63.4% 0.83× 1.91
H2 under 73.5 51.7% 52.4% 39.6% 1.32× 1.91
H2 under 72.5 48.1% 47.6% 34.1% 1.40× 2.10
H2 over 73.5 48.4% 47.6% 63.1% 0.76× 2.10
H2 under 72.5 48.0% 47.6% 36.6% 1.30× 2.10
H2 over 73.5 48.3% 47.6% 60.4% 0.79× 2.10
H2 over 74.5 44.9% 42.7% 60.0% 0.71× 2.34
H2 over 74.5 44.7% 42.7% 57.0% 0.75× 2.34
H2 under 70.5 41.1% 42.7% 28.1% 1.52× 2.34
H2 under 70.5 40.8% 42.7% 30.2% 1.41× 2.35
H2 over 76.5 38.0% 38.4% 53.4% 0.72× 2.61
H2 over 76.5 37.6% 38.4% 50.3% 0.76× 2.61
H2 under 68.5 34.3% 33.6% 22.5% 1.50× 2.97
H2 under 68.5 33.9% 33.6% 24.3% 1.38× 2.97
H2 over 78.5 31.4% 33.6% 47.0% 0.71× 2.97
H2 over 78.5 30.9% 33.6% 43.6% 0.77× 2.97
H2 under 65.5 25.1% 27.8% 15.5% 1.79× 3.59
H2 under 65.5 24.5% 24.2% 16.9% 1.44× 4.13
H2 over 81.5 22.6% 24.2% 37.8% 0.64× 4.13
H2 over 81.5 22.0% 24.2% 34.2% 0.71× 4.13
H2 under 61.5 15.2% 18.2% 8.6% 2.10× 5.50
H2 over 85.5 13.4% 14.8% 26.7% 0.55× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Minnesota Golden Gophers leading at half time 52.7% 51.9% 57.9% 0.90× 1.93
California Golden Bears leading at half time 42.8% 42.8% 38.2% 1.12× 2.33
Level at half time 4.5% 3.8% 3.9% 0.97× 26.40
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Minnesota Golden Gophers +16.5 95.8% 97.4% 94.0% 1.04× 1.03
Minnesota Golden Gophers +18.5 97.3% 97.4% 95.4% 1.02× 1.03
Minnesota Golden Gophers +20.5 98.3% 97.4% 96.5% 1.01× 1.03
California Golden Bears +20.5 95.5% 97.4% 86.5% 1.13× 1.03
Minnesota Golden Gophers +14.5 93.9% 91.1% 92.2% 0.99× 1.10
California Golden Bears +18.5 93.4% 91.1% 83.9% 1.09× 1.10
Minnesota Golden Gophers +12.5 91.2% 91.1% 89.9% 1.01× 1.10
California Golden Bears +16.5 90.6% 91.1% 80.7% 1.13× 1.10
Minnesota Golden Gophers +10.5 87.8% 85.9% 87.2% 0.99× 1.16
California Golden Bears +14.5 87.0% 85.9% 77.2% 1.11× 1.16
Minnesota Golden Gophers +9.5 85.8% 85.9% 85.3% 1.01× 1.16
Minnesota Golden Gophers +8.5 83.5% 81.1% 83.3% 0.97× 1.23
California Golden Bears +12.5 82.6% 81.1% 72.4% 1.12× 1.23
Minnesota Golden Gophers +7.5 81.1% 81.1% 81.0% 1.00× 1.23
Minnesota Golden Gophers +6.5 78.4% 76.5% 78.8% 0.97× 1.31
California Golden Bears +10.5 77.2% 76.5% 67.4% 1.14× 1.31
Minnesota Golden Gophers +5.5 75.5% 76.5% 76.4% 1.00× 1.31
California Golden Bears +9.5 74.3% 71.6% 64.5% 1.11× 1.40
Minnesota Golden Gophers +4.5 72.4% 71.6% 73.7% 0.97× 1.40
California Golden Bears +8.5 71.1% 71.6% 61.5% 1.16× 1.40
Minnesota Golden Gophers +3.5 69.2% 66.7% 70.8% 0.94× 1.50
California Golden Bears +7.5 67.8% 66.7% 58.7% 1.14× 1.50
Minnesota Golden Gophers +2.5 65.7% 66.7% 68.0% 0.98× 1.50
California Golden Bears +6.5 64.3% 61.9% 55.7% 1.11× 1.62
Minnesota Golden Gophers +1.5 62.2% 61.9% 65.4% 0.95× 1.62
California Golden Bears +5.5 60.6% 61.9% 53.0% 1.17× 1.62
California Golden Bears +4.5 56.9% 57.1% 49.3% 1.16× 1.75
Minnesota Golden Gophers −1.5 54.6% 52.4% 60.8% 0.86× 1.91
California Golden Bears +3.5 53.1% 52.4% 45.9% 1.14× 1.91
Minnesota Golden Gophers −2.5 50.8% 52.4% 57.7% 0.91× 1.91
California Golden Bears +2.5 49.2% 47.6% 42.3% 1.12× 2.10
Minnesota Golden Gophers −3.5 46.9% 47.6% 54.1% 0.88× 2.10
California Golden Bears +1.5 45.4% 47.6% 39.2% 1.21× 2.10
Minnesota Golden Gophers −4.5 43.1% 42.9% 50.7% 0.85× 2.33
Minnesota Golden Gophers −5.5 39.4% 38.1% 47.0% 0.81× 2.63
California Golden Bears −1.5 37.8% 38.1% 34.6% 1.10× 2.63
Minnesota Golden Gophers −6.5 35.7% 38.1% 44.3% 0.86× 2.63
California Golden Bears −2.5 34.3% 33.3% 32.0% 1.04× 3.01
Minnesota Golden Gophers −7.5 32.2% 33.3% 41.3% 0.80× 3.01
California Golden Bears −3.5 30.8% 33.3% 29.3% 1.14× 3.01
Minnesota Golden Gophers −8.5 28.9% 28.4% 38.5% 0.74× 3.53
California Golden Bears −4.5 27.6% 28.4% 26.3% 1.08× 3.53
Minnesota Golden Gophers −9.5 25.7% 28.4% 35.5% 0.80× 3.53
California Golden Bears −5.5 24.5% 23.5% 23.6% 1.00× 4.25
California Golden Bears −6.5 21.6% 23.5% 21.2% 1.11× 4.25
Minnesota Golden Gophers −10.5 22.8% 23.5% 32.6% 0.72× 4.25
California Golden Bears −7.5 18.9% 18.9% 19.0% 0.99× 5.29
Minnesota Golden Gophers −12.5 17.5% 18.9% 27.6% 0.68× 5.29
California Golden Bears −8.5 16.5% 18.9% 16.7% 1.13× 5.30
California Golden Bears −9.5 14.2% 14.1% 14.7% 0.96× 7.09
California Golden Bears −10.5 12.2% 14.1% 12.8% 1.10× 7.09
Minnesota Golden Gophers −14.5 13.0% 14.1% 22.8% 0.62× 7.09
California Golden Bears −12.5 8.8% 8.9% 10.1% 0.88× 11.25
Minnesota Golden Gophers −16.5 9.4% 8.9% 19.3% 0.46× 11.25
California Golden Bears −14.5 6.1% 8.9% 7.8% 1.14× 11.25
Minnesota Golden Gophers −18.5 6.6% 8.9% 16.1% 0.55× 11.25
Minnesota Golden Gophers −20.5 4.5% 2.6% 13.5% 0.19× 38.72
California Golden Bears −16.5 4.2% 2.6% 6.0% 0.43× 38.72
California Golden Bears −18.5 2.7% 2.6% 4.6% 0.57× 38.73
California Golden Bears −20.5 1.7% 2.6% 3.5% 0.75× 38.73
Highest scoring half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 highest scoring 77.8% 71.6% 70.4% 1.02× 1.40
2nd half highest scoring 76.2% 71.6% 72.5% 0.99× 1.40
1st half highest scoring 23.8% 28.4% 27.5% 1.03× 3.53
H1 highest scoring 22.2% 28.4% 29.6% 0.96× 3.53
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Minnesota Golden Gophers at HT / Minnesota Golden Gophers at FT 40.8% 41.0% 48.6% 0.84× 2.44
California Golden Bears at HT / California Golden Bears at FT 27.7% 29.6% 25.8% 1.14× 3.38
California Golden Bears at HT / Minnesota Golden Gophers at FT 15.1% 15.4% 12.4% 1.25× 6.47
Minnesota Golden Gophers at HT / California Golden Bears at FT 11.9% 12.2% 9.3% 1.31× 8.18
Level at HT / Minnesota Golden Gophers at FT 2.6% 2.1% 2.3% 0.92× 47.75
Level at HT / California Golden Bears at FT 1.9% 2.1% 1.6% 1.28× 47.76
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Minnesota Golden Gophers to win 58.5% 55.2% 63.2% 0.87× 1.81
California Golden Bears to win 41.5% 44.8% 36.8% 1.22× 2.23
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Total points odd 51.9% 50.5% 51.6% 0.98× 1.98
Minnesota Golden Gophers even 50.0% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
California Golden Bears even 50.0% 50.5% 50.4% 1.00× 1.98
Minnesota Golden Gophers odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
California Golden Bears odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.6% 1.00× 2.02
Total points even 48.1% 49.5% 48.4% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 92.1% 94.0% 94.2% 1.00× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 7.9% 6.0% 5.8% 1.04× 16.64
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
California Golden Bears under 78.5 86.0% 83.9% 73.7% 1.14× 1.19
Minnesota Golden Gophers under 80.5 84.8% 80.7% 64.9% 1.24× 1.24
Minnesota Golden Gophers over 60.5 84.5% 80.7% 90.5% 0.89× 1.24
California Golden Bears over 58.5 84.3% 80.7% 86.2% 0.94× 1.24
California Golden Bears under 75.5 77.9% 75.1% 64.7% 1.16× 1.33
Minnesota Golden Gophers over 63.5 76.1% 75.1% 85.4% 0.88× 1.33
Minnesota Golden Gophers under 77.5 76.4% 75.1% 55.4% 1.36× 1.33
California Golden Bears over 61.5 75.6% 75.1% 79.3% 0.95× 1.33
California Golden Bears under 73.5 71.2% 70.7% 58.3% 1.21× 1.41
Minnesota Golden Gophers under 75.5 69.7% 66.4% 49.0% 1.35× 1.51
Minnesota Golden Gophers over 65.5 69.3% 66.4% 81.1% 0.82× 1.51
California Golden Bears over 63.5 68.6% 66.4% 73.9% 0.90× 1.51
Minnesota Golden Gophers under 73.5 62.2% 61.2% 42.6% 1.44× 1.63
California Golden Bears under 71.5 63.7% 61.2% 51.8% 1.18× 1.63
Minnesota Golden Gophers over 67.5 61.8% 61.2% 75.9% 0.81× 1.63
California Golden Bears over 65.5 60.8% 61.2% 67.8% 0.90× 1.63
California Golden Bears under 69.5 55.7% 57.1% 45.2% 1.26× 1.75
Minnesota Golden Gophers over 69.5 53.8% 52.3% 69.6% 0.75× 1.91
Minnesota Golden Gophers under 71.5 54.3% 52.3% 36.3% 1.44× 1.91
California Golden Bears over 67.5 52.6% 52.3% 61.6% 0.85× 1.91
California Golden Bears under 68.5 51.5% 52.3% 41.6% 1.26× 1.91
Minnesota Golden Gophers under 70.5 50.2% 52.3% 33.3% 1.57× 1.91
Minnesota Golden Gophers over 70.5 49.8% 47.7% 66.7% 0.72× 2.09
California Golden Bears under 67.5 47.4% 47.7% 38.4% 1.24× 2.09
California Golden Bears over 68.5 48.5% 47.7% 58.4% 0.82× 2.09
Minnesota Golden Gophers under 69.5 46.2% 47.7% 30.4% 1.57× 2.09
Minnesota Golden Gophers over 71.5 45.7% 47.7% 63.7% 0.75× 2.09
California Golden Bears over 69.5 44.3% 42.9% 54.8% 0.78× 2.33
Minnesota Golden Gophers under 67.5 38.2% 38.8% 24.1% 1.61× 2.58
California Golden Bears under 65.5 39.2% 38.8% 32.2% 1.21× 2.58
Minnesota Golden Gophers over 73.5 37.8% 38.8% 57.4% 0.68× 2.58
California Golden Bears over 71.5 36.3% 38.8% 48.2% 0.81× 2.58
Minnesota Golden Gophers under 65.5 30.7% 33.6% 18.9% 1.78× 2.98
California Golden Bears under 63.5 31.4% 33.6% 26.1% 1.29× 2.98
Minnesota Golden Gophers over 75.5 30.3% 33.6% 51.0% 0.66× 2.98
California Golden Bears over 73.5 28.8% 29.3% 41.7% 0.70× 3.42
California Golden Bears under 61.5 24.4% 24.9% 20.7% 1.20× 4.02
Minnesota Golden Gophers under 63.5 23.9% 24.9% 14.6% 1.70× 4.02
Minnesota Golden Gophers over 77.5 23.6% 24.9% 44.6% 0.56× 4.02
California Golden Bears over 75.5 22.1% 24.9% 35.3% 0.71× 4.02
Minnesota Golden Gophers under 60.5 15.5% 19.3% 9.5% 2.04× 5.18
California Golden Bears under 58.5 15.7% 19.3% 13.8% 1.40× 5.18
Minnesota Golden Gophers over 80.5 15.2% 19.3% 35.1% 0.55× 5.18
California Golden Bears over 78.5 14.0% 16.1% 26.3% 0.61× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 118.5 points 89.6% 85.0% 94.7% 0.90× 1.18
Under 158.5 points 89.3% 85.0% 73.3% 1.16× 1.18
Over 123.5 points 82.7% 80.6% 90.5% 0.89× 1.24
Under 153.5 points 82.5% 80.6% 64.6% 1.25× 1.24
Over 128.5 points 73.6% 70.8% 84.5% 0.84× 1.41
Under 148.5 points 73.2% 70.8% 54.3% 1.31× 1.41
Over 131.5 points 67.0% 65.9% 79.9% 0.82× 1.52
Under 145.5 points 66.8% 65.9% 48.2% 1.37× 1.52
Over 133.5 points 62.4% 61.5% 76.4% 0.80× 1.63
Under 143.5 points 62.2% 61.5% 43.7% 1.41× 1.63
Over 135.5 points 57.6% 56.5% 72.9% 0.78× 1.77
Under 141.5 points 57.3% 56.5% 39.6% 1.43× 1.77
Over 137.5 points 52.6% 52.3% 69.0% 0.76× 1.91
Under 139.5 points 52.4% 52.3% 35.4% 1.48× 1.91
Over 138.5 points 50.2% 52.3% 67.0% 0.78× 1.91
Under 138.5 points 49.8% 47.7% 33.0% 1.45× 2.10
Under 137.5 points 47.4% 47.7% 31.0% 1.54× 2.10
Over 139.5 points 47.6% 47.7% 64.6% 0.74× 2.10
Under 135.5 points 42.4% 43.5% 27.1% 1.60× 2.30
Over 141.5 points 42.7% 43.5% 60.4% 0.72× 2.30
Under 133.5 points 37.6% 38.5% 23.6% 1.63× 2.60
Over 143.5 points 37.8% 38.5% 56.3% 0.68× 2.60
Under 131.5 points 33.0% 34.1% 20.1% 1.70× 2.93
Over 145.5 points 33.2% 34.1% 51.8% 0.66× 2.93
Over 148.5 points 26.8% 29.2% 45.7% 0.64× 3.43
Under 128.5 points 26.4% 29.2% 15.5% 1.89× 3.43
Under 123.5 points 17.3% 19.4% 9.5% 2.05× 5.15
Over 153.5 points 17.5% 19.4% 35.4% 0.55× 5.15
Under 118.5 points 10.4% 15.0% 5.3% 2.80× 6.69
Over 158.5 points 10.7% 15.0% 26.7% 0.56× 6.69
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Minnesota Golden Gophers to win both halves 24.3% 23.1% 33.2% 0.70× 4.33
California Golden Bears to win both halves 14.7% 14.1% 14.5% 0.97× 7.11
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Minnesota Golden Gophers by 1-5 19.1% 16.8% 16.2% 1.03× 5.97
California Golden Bears by 1-5 17.1% 16.8% 13.2% 1.27× 5.97
Minnesota Golden Gophers by 6-10 16.6% 16.8% 14.4% 1.16× 5.97
California Golden Bears by 6-10 12.3% 12.3% 10.8% 1.14× 8.11
Minnesota Golden Gophers by 11-15 11.6% 12.3% 11.6% 1.07× 8.11
California Golden Bears by 11-15 7.1% 7.5% 6.1% 1.23× 13.40
Minnesota Golden Gophers by 16-20 6.6% 7.5% 7.6% 0.98× 13.40
California Golden Bears by 16-20 3.3% 2.0% 3.3% 0.61× 49.30
Minnesota Golden Gophers by 21-25 3.0% 2.0% 5.6% 0.36× 49.30
California Golden Bears by 21-25 1.3% 2.0% 1.9% 1.06× 49.32
Minnesota Golden Gophers by 26+ 1.5% 2.0% 7.9% 0.26× 49.31
California Golden Bears by 26+ 0.5% 2.0% 1.6% 1.30× 49.32
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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