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NC State Wolfpack v Liberty Flames — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 11 November 2026 · NCAAW · 2027

NCAAW results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
NC State Wolfpack win
96.7%
Draw
0.0%
Liberty Flames win
3.3%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 77.75–57.31 78-57 0% 50% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
NC State Wolfpack to score 100+ 1.2% 0.4% 1.8% 0.20× 283.13
NC State Wolfpack to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.64× 283.35
NC State Wolfpack to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 2.91× 283.36
NC State Wolfpack to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 7.58× 283.36
Liberty Flames to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.71× 283.36
Liberty Flames to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.74× 283.36
Liberty Flames to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 18.95× 283.36
Liberty Flames to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 37.89× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 6.32× 283.36
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
NC State Wolfpack to win H1 85.2% 88.6% 56.4% 1.57× 1.13
Liberty Flames to win H1 12.3% 10.8% 39.9% 0.27× 9.27
H1 tied 2.5% 3.9% 3.7% 1.05× 25.87
H1 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 77.5 89.6% 87.7% 91.6% 0.96× 1.14
H1 over 53.5 87.2% 87.7% 76.8% 1.14× 1.14
H1 under 73.5 80.7% 82.5% 85.6% 0.96× 1.21
H1 over 57.5 76.7% 77.4% 64.8% 1.19× 1.29
H1 under 70.5 71.5% 73.5% 78.9% 0.93× 1.36
H1 over 60.5 66.6% 67.4% 53.9% 1.25× 1.48
H1 under 68.5 64.4% 62.7% 73.5% 0.85× 1.59
H1 over 62.5 59.0% 58.2% 46.3% 1.26× 1.72
H1 under 66.5 56.8% 58.2% 67.1% 0.87× 1.72
H1 under 65.5 52.9% 52.6% 63.9% 0.82× 1.90
H1 over 64.5 51.1% 52.6% 39.3% 1.34× 1.90
H1 under 64.5 48.9% 47.4% 60.7% 0.78× 2.11
H1 over 65.5 47.1% 47.4% 36.1% 1.31× 2.11
H1 over 66.5 43.2% 41.8% 32.9% 1.27× 2.39
H1 under 62.5 41.0% 41.8% 53.7% 0.78× 2.39
H1 over 68.5 35.6% 37.3% 26.5% 1.41× 2.68
H1 under 60.5 33.4% 32.6% 46.1% 0.71× 3.07
H1 over 70.5 28.5% 26.5% 21.1% 1.26× 3.77
H1 under 57.5 23.3% 22.6% 35.2% 0.64× 4.43
H1 over 73.5 19.3% 17.5% 14.4% 1.21× 5.72
H1 under 53.5 12.8% 12.3% 23.2% 0.53× 8.14
H1 over 77.5 10.4% 12.3% 8.4% 1.47× 8.14
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
NC State Wolfpack to win H2 86.7% 84.1% 56.0% 1.50× 1.19
Liberty Flames to win H2 11.1% 14.7% 40.6% 0.36× 6.79
H2 tied 2.2% 3.9% 3.4% 1.16× 25.37
H2 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 83.5 88.3% 85.2% 88.9% 0.96× 1.17
H2 over 59.5 86.4% 85.2% 77.0% 1.11× 1.17
H2 under 79.5 79.2% 75.8% 82.0% 0.92× 1.32
H2 over 63.5 76.2% 75.8% 65.3% 1.16× 1.32
H2 under 76.5 70.1% 72.2% 75.6% 0.95× 1.39
H2 over 66.5 66.4% 66.4% 55.4% 1.20× 1.51
H2 under 74.5 63.3% 61.6% 69.9% 0.88× 1.62
H2 over 68.5 59.2% 57.3% 48.7% 1.18× 1.74
H2 under 72.5 55.9% 57.3% 64.1% 0.90× 1.74
H2 over 70.5 51.7% 52.4% 42.2% 1.24× 1.91
H2 under 71.5 52.1% 52.4% 61.1% 0.86× 1.91
H2 under 70.5 48.3% 47.6% 57.8% 0.82× 2.10
H2 over 71.5 47.9% 47.6% 38.9% 1.23× 2.10
H2 over 72.5 44.1% 42.7% 36.0% 1.19× 2.34
H2 under 68.5 40.8% 42.7% 51.3% 0.83× 2.35
H2 over 74.5 36.7% 38.4% 30.1% 1.28× 2.61
H2 under 66.5 33.6% 33.6% 44.6% 0.75× 2.97
H2 over 76.5 29.9% 27.8% 24.4% 1.14× 3.59
H2 under 63.5 23.8% 24.2% 34.7% 0.70× 4.13
H2 over 79.5 20.8% 24.2% 18.0% 1.35× 4.13
H2 under 59.5 13.6% 14.8% 23.0% 0.64× 6.76
H2 over 83.5 11.7% 14.8% 11.1% 1.33× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
NC State Wolfpack leading at half time 85.2% 89.3% 56.4% 1.58× 1.12
Liberty Flames leading at half time 12.3% 10.3% 39.9% 0.26× 9.71
Level at half time 2.5% 3.8% 3.7% 1.03× 26.42
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
NC State Wolfpack +8.5 99.5% 97.4% 76.5% 1.27× 1.03
NC State Wolfpack +9.5 99.6% 97.4% 78.7% 1.24× 1.03
NC State Wolfpack +10.5 99.7% 97.4% 80.4% 1.21× 1.03
NC State Wolfpack +12.5 99.8% 97.4% 83.8% 1.16× 1.03
NC State Wolfpack +14.5 99.9% 97.4% 86.7% 1.12× 1.03
NC State Wolfpack +16.5 99.9% 97.4% 89.1% 1.09× 1.03
NC State Wolfpack +18.5 100.0% 97.4% 91.1% 1.07× 1.03
NC State Wolfpack +20.5 100.0% 97.4% 92.7% 1.05× 1.03
NC State Wolfpack −1.5 95.9% 97.4% 58.7% 1.66× 1.03
NC State Wolfpack +1.5 97.3% 97.4% 61.2% 1.59× 1.03
NC State Wolfpack +2.5 97.9% 97.4% 63.3% 1.54× 1.03
NC State Wolfpack +3.5 98.3% 97.4% 65.7% 1.48× 1.03
NC State Wolfpack +4.5 98.6% 97.4% 67.8% 1.44× 1.03
NC State Wolfpack +5.5 98.9% 97.4% 70.1% 1.39× 1.03
NC State Wolfpack +6.5 99.1% 97.4% 72.3% 1.35× 1.03
NC State Wolfpack +7.5 99.3% 97.4% 74.5% 1.31× 1.03
NC State Wolfpack −2.5 95.0% 91.1% 56.7% 1.61× 1.10
NC State Wolfpack −3.5 93.9% 91.1% 54.2% 1.68× 1.10
NC State Wolfpack −4.5 92.6% 91.1% 52.2% 1.75× 1.10
NC State Wolfpack −5.5 91.2% 91.1% 49.7% 1.83× 1.10
NC State Wolfpack −6.5 89.5% 85.9% 47.6% 1.80× 1.16
NC State Wolfpack −7.5 87.7% 85.9% 44.8% 1.92× 1.16
NC State Wolfpack −8.5 85.8% 85.9% 42.0% 2.05× 1.16
NC State Wolfpack −9.5 83.6% 81.1% 39.3% 2.06× 1.23
NC State Wolfpack −10.5 81.2% 81.1% 36.8% 2.20× 1.23
NC State Wolfpack −12.5 75.8% 76.5% 32.1% 2.38× 1.31
NC State Wolfpack −14.5 69.8% 66.7% 27.9% 2.39× 1.50
NC State Wolfpack −16.5 63.1% 61.9% 24.3% 2.55× 1.62
NC State Wolfpack −18.5 56.1% 57.1% 20.7% 2.75× 1.75
Liberty Flames +20.5 51.2% 52.4% 82.0% 0.64× 1.91
NC State Wolfpack −20.5 48.8% 47.6% 18.0% 2.65× 2.10
Liberty Flames +18.5 43.9% 42.9% 79.3% 0.54× 2.33
Liberty Flames +16.5 36.9% 38.1% 75.7% 0.50× 2.63
Liberty Flames +14.5 30.2% 33.3% 72.1% 0.46× 3.01
Liberty Flames +12.5 24.2% 23.5% 67.9% 0.35× 4.25
Liberty Flames +10.5 18.8% 18.9% 63.2% 0.30× 5.29
Liberty Flames +9.5 16.4% 18.9% 60.7% 0.31× 5.30
Liberty Flames +8.5 14.2% 14.1% 58.0% 0.24× 7.09
Liberty Flames +7.5 12.3% 14.1% 55.2% 0.26× 7.09
Liberty Flames +6.5 10.5% 14.1% 52.4% 0.27× 7.09
Liberty Flames +5.5 8.8% 8.9% 50.3% 0.18× 11.25
Liberty Flames +3.5 6.1% 8.9% 45.8% 0.19× 11.25
Liberty Flames +4.5 7.4% 8.9% 47.8% 0.19× 11.25
Liberty Flames +2.5 5.0% 8.9% 43.3% 0.21× 11.25
Liberty Flames +1.5 4.1% 2.6% 41.3% 0.06× 38.72
Liberty Flames −1.5 2.7% 2.6% 38.8% 0.07× 38.73
Liberty Flames −2.5 2.1% 2.6% 36.7% 0.07× 38.73
Liberty Flames −3.5 1.7% 2.6% 34.3% 0.08× 38.73
Liberty Flames −4.5 1.4% 2.6% 32.2% 0.08× 38.73
Liberty Flames −5.5 1.1% 2.6% 29.9% 0.09× 38.74
Liberty Flames −6.5 0.9% 2.6% 27.7% 0.09× 38.74
Liberty Flames −7.5 0.7% 2.6% 25.5% 0.10× 38.74
Liberty Flames −8.5 0.5% 2.6% 23.5% 0.11× 38.74
Liberty Flames −9.5 0.4% 2.6% 21.3% 0.12× 38.74
Liberty Flames −10.5 0.3% 2.6% 19.6% 0.13× 38.74
Liberty Flames −12.5 0.2% 2.6% 16.2% 0.16× 38.74
Liberty Flames −14.5 0.1% 2.6% 13.3% 0.19× 38.74
Liberty Flames −16.5 0.1% 2.6% 10.9% 0.24× 38.74
Liberty Flames −18.5 0.0% 2.6% 8.9% 0.29× 38.74
Liberty Flames −20.5 0.0% 2.6% 7.3% 0.35× 38.74
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 72.8% 67.1% 66.7% 1.01× 1.49
1st half highest scoring 27.2% 32.9% 33.3% 0.99× 3.04
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 highest scoring 34.7% 31.9% 31.2% 1.02× 3.14
Q3 highest scoring 33.0% 31.9% 31.3% 1.02× 3.14
Q1 highest scoring 16.9% 18.3% 19.6% 0.94× 5.46
Q2 highest scoring 15.4% 18.3% 17.9% 1.02× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
NC State Wolfpack at HT / NC State Wolfpack at FT 84.1% 84.6% 48.3% 1.75× 1.18
Liberty Flames at HT / NC State Wolfpack at FT 10.3% 12.2% 9.8% 1.25× 8.18
Level at HT / NC State Wolfpack at FT 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% 1.09× 47.75
Liberty Flames at HT / Liberty Flames at FT 1.9% 2.1% 30.1% 0.07× 47.76
NC State Wolfpack at HT / Liberty Flames at FT 1.1% 2.1% 8.2% 0.26× 47.77
Level at HT / Liberty Flames at FT 0.2% 2.1% 1.8% 1.20× 47.79
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
NC State Wolfpack to win 96.7% 97.4% 59.9% 1.63× 1.03
Liberty Flames to win 3.3% 2.6% 40.1% 0.06× 39.05
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
NC State Wolfpack even 50.0% 50.5% 49.4% 1.02× 1.98
Liberty Flames even 50.2% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
Total points odd 50.4% 50.5% 51.5% 0.98× 1.98
NC State Wolfpack odd 50.0% 49.5% 50.6% 0.98× 2.02
Liberty Flames odd 49.8% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
Total points even 49.6% 49.5% 48.5% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 97.8% 97.0% 95.6% 1.02× 1.03
Match to go to overtime 2.2% 3.0% 4.4% 0.67× 33.51
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
NC State Wolfpack to win Q1 74.9% 73.9% 54.7% 1.35× 1.35
Liberty Flames to win Q1 20.5% 22.0% 40.4% 0.54× 4.55
Q1 tied 4.7% 4.2% 4.9% 0.85× 23.94
Q1 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 over 24.5 88.6% 87.4% 81.8% 1.07× 1.14
Q1 under 40.5 88.0% 87.4% 89.9% 0.97× 1.14
Q1 over 27.5 77.5% 76.9% 67.7% 1.14× 1.30
Q1 under 37.5 76.8% 76.9% 81.6% 0.94× 1.30
Q1 over 29.5 67.6% 67.6% 56.9% 1.19× 1.48
Q1 under 35.5 66.8% 67.6% 73.2% 0.92× 1.48
Q1 over 31.5 56.3% 58.6% 46.0% 1.27× 1.71
Q1 under 33.5 55.5% 58.6% 64.0% 0.92× 1.71
Q1 over 32.5 50.4% 52.7% 40.9% 1.29× 1.90
Q1 under 32.5 49.6% 47.3% 59.1% 0.80× 2.11
Q1 over 33.5 44.5% 41.4% 36.0% 1.15× 2.42
Q1 under 31.5 43.7% 41.4% 54.0% 0.77× 2.42
Q1 over 35.5 33.2% 32.4% 26.8% 1.21× 3.08
Q1 under 29.5 32.4% 32.4% 43.1% 0.75× 3.08
Q1 over 37.5 23.2% 23.1% 18.4% 1.26× 4.33
Q1 under 27.5 22.5% 23.1% 32.3% 0.71× 4.33
Q1 over 40.5 12.0% 12.6% 10.1% 1.25× 7.95
Q1 under 24.5 11.4% 12.6% 18.2% 0.69× 7.95
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
NC State Wolfpack to win Q2 74.2% 75.3% 52.9% 1.42× 1.33
Liberty Flames to win Q2 21.2% 20.0% 41.5% 0.48× 5.01
Q2 tied 4.6% 4.4% 5.7% 0.77× 22.88
Q2 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 under 40.5 89.0% 87.3% 90.8% 0.96× 1.15
Q2 over 24.5 87.6% 87.3% 80.7% 1.08× 1.15
Q2 under 37.5 78.3% 76.8% 82.3% 0.93× 1.30
Q2 over 27.5 76.0% 76.8% 66.7% 1.15× 1.30
Q2 under 35.5 68.6% 67.4% 74.6% 0.90× 1.49
Q2 over 29.5 65.8% 67.4% 55.8% 1.21× 1.49
Q2 under 33.5 57.5% 58.2% 65.6% 0.89× 1.72
Q2 over 31.5 54.4% 52.7% 44.3% 1.19× 1.90
Q2 under 32.5 51.6% 52.7% 60.8% 0.87× 1.90
Q2 over 32.5 48.4% 47.3% 39.2% 1.21× 2.11
Q2 under 31.5 45.6% 47.3% 55.7% 0.85× 2.11
Q2 over 33.5 42.5% 41.8% 34.4% 1.22× 2.39
Q2 under 29.5 34.2% 32.6% 44.2% 0.74× 3.06
Q2 over 35.5 31.4% 32.6% 25.4% 1.29× 3.06
Q2 under 27.5 24.0% 23.2% 33.3% 0.70× 4.31
Q2 over 37.5 21.7% 23.2% 17.7% 1.31× 4.31
Q2 under 24.5 12.4% 12.7% 19.3% 0.66× 7.89
Q2 over 40.5 11.0% 12.7% 9.2% 1.38× 7.90
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
NC State Wolfpack to win Q3 76.3% 81.4% 53.3% 1.53× 1.23
Liberty Flames to win Q3 19.3% 15.2% 41.8% 0.36× 6.58
Q3 tied 4.4% 4.3% 4.9% 0.86× 23.44
Q3 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 over 27.5 87.6% 87.2% 80.0% 1.09× 1.15
Q3 under 43.5 87.7% 87.2% 90.2% 0.97× 1.15
Q3 under 40.5 76.7% 77.3% 81.9% 0.94× 1.29
Q3 over 30.5 76.4% 77.3% 66.8% 1.16× 1.29
Q3 under 38.5 67.0% 67.8% 73.9% 0.92× 1.48
Q3 over 32.5 66.6% 67.8% 56.1% 1.21× 1.48
Q3 under 36.5 56.0% 58.4% 64.6% 0.90× 1.71
Q3 over 34.5 55.5% 58.4% 45.4% 1.29× 1.71
Q3 under 35.5 50.3% 52.3% 59.7% 0.88× 1.91
Q3 over 35.5 49.7% 47.7% 40.3% 1.18× 2.10
Q3 under 34.5 44.5% 41.6% 54.6% 0.76× 2.40
Q3 over 36.5 44.0% 41.6% 35.4% 1.17× 2.40
Q3 under 32.5 33.4% 32.2% 43.9% 0.73× 3.10
Q3 over 38.5 33.0% 32.2% 26.1% 1.23× 3.10
Q3 under 30.5 23.6% 22.7% 33.2% 0.69× 4.40
Q3 over 40.5 23.3% 22.7% 18.1% 1.25× 4.40
Q3 under 27.5 12.4% 12.8% 20.0% 0.64× 7.83
Q3 over 43.5 12.3% 12.8% 9.8% 1.30× 7.83
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
NC State Wolfpack to win Q4 75.9% 71.4% 52.8% 1.35× 1.40
Liberty Flames to win Q4 19.8% 22.8% 41.5% 0.55× 4.39
Q4 tied 4.3% 5.2% 5.7% 0.91× 19.29
Q4 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 over 27.5 86.4% 85.6% 78.9% 1.09× 1.17
Q4 under 43.5 86.2% 85.6% 88.6% 0.97× 1.17
Q4 over 30.5 75.4% 76.9% 66.3% 1.16× 1.30
Q4 under 40.5 75.2% 76.9% 80.6% 0.95× 1.30
Q4 over 32.5 66.0% 67.4% 55.4% 1.22× 1.48
Q4 under 38.5 65.8% 67.4% 73.1% 0.92× 1.48
Q4 over 34.5 55.6% 58.4% 45.6% 1.28× 1.71
Q4 under 36.5 55.3% 58.4% 64.3% 0.91× 1.71
Q4 over 35.5 50.1% 52.5% 40.6% 1.29× 1.91
Q4 under 35.5 49.9% 47.5% 59.4% 0.80× 2.11
Q4 over 36.5 44.7% 41.6% 35.7% 1.17× 2.40
Q4 under 34.5 44.5% 41.6% 54.4% 0.76× 2.40
Q4 under 32.5 34.0% 32.6% 44.6% 0.73× 3.07
Q4 over 38.5 34.2% 32.6% 26.9% 1.21× 3.07
Q4 over 40.5 24.8% 23.1% 19.4% 1.19× 4.33
Q4 under 30.5 24.6% 23.1% 33.7% 0.68× 4.33
Q4 over 43.5 13.8% 14.4% 11.4% 1.26× 6.95
Q4 under 27.5 13.6% 14.4% 21.1% 0.68× 6.95
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Liberty Flames under 68.5 88.5% 83.9% 68.6% 1.22× 1.19
NC State Wolfpack under 88.5 86.7% 83.9% 93.1% 0.90× 1.19
Liberty Flames over 48.5 85.1% 83.9% 86.7% 0.97× 1.19
NC State Wolfpack over 68.5 84.3% 80.7% 45.6% 1.77× 1.24
Liberty Flames under 65.5 80.8% 80.7% 59.8% 1.35× 1.24
NC State Wolfpack under 85.5 78.6% 75.1% 90.2% 0.83× 1.33
NC State Wolfpack over 71.5 75.4% 75.1% 37.0% 2.03× 1.33
Liberty Flames over 51.5 75.4% 75.1% 81.0% 0.93× 1.33
Liberty Flames under 63.5 74.3% 70.7% 53.9% 1.31× 1.41
NC State Wolfpack under 83.5 72.0% 70.7% 87.7% 0.81× 1.41
NC State Wolfpack over 73.5 68.3% 66.4% 31.5% 2.11× 1.51
Liberty Flames over 53.5 67.6% 66.4% 76.3% 0.87× 1.51
Liberty Flames under 61.5 66.8% 66.4% 47.9% 1.39× 1.51
NC State Wolfpack under 81.5 64.5% 61.2% 84.6% 0.72× 1.63
NC State Wolfpack over 75.5 60.4% 61.2% 26.8% 2.28× 1.63
Liberty Flames over 55.5 59.1% 57.1% 70.8% 0.81× 1.75
Liberty Flames under 59.5 58.5% 57.1% 41.2% 1.39× 1.75
NC State Wolfpack under 79.5 56.4% 57.1% 81.3% 0.70× 1.75
Liberty Flames under 58.5 54.1% 52.3% 37.9% 1.38× 1.91
NC State Wolfpack over 77.5 52.1% 52.3% 22.6% 2.31× 1.91
NC State Wolfpack under 78.5 52.2% 52.3% 79.4% 0.66× 1.91
Liberty Flames over 57.5 50.3% 52.3% 65.1% 0.80× 1.91
Liberty Flames under 57.5 49.7% 47.7% 34.9% 1.37× 2.09
NC State Wolfpack under 77.5 47.9% 47.7% 77.4% 0.62× 2.09
NC State Wolfpack over 78.5 47.8% 47.7% 20.6% 2.31× 2.09
Liberty Flames over 58.5 45.9% 47.7% 62.1% 0.77× 2.09
NC State Wolfpack over 79.5 43.6% 42.9% 18.7% 2.29× 2.33
Liberty Flames over 59.5 41.5% 42.9% 58.8% 0.73× 2.33
Liberty Flames under 55.5 40.9% 42.9% 29.2% 1.47× 2.33
NC State Wolfpack under 75.5 39.6% 38.8% 73.2% 0.53× 2.58
NC State Wolfpack over 81.5 35.5% 38.8% 15.4% 2.51× 2.58
Liberty Flames over 61.5 33.2% 33.6% 52.1% 0.65× 2.98
NC State Wolfpack under 73.5 31.7% 33.6% 68.5% 0.49× 2.98
Liberty Flames under 53.5 32.4% 33.6% 23.7% 1.42× 2.98
NC State Wolfpack over 83.5 28.0% 29.3% 12.3% 2.38× 3.42
Liberty Flames over 63.5 25.7% 29.3% 46.1% 0.64× 3.42
NC State Wolfpack under 71.5 24.6% 24.9% 63.0% 0.39× 4.02
Liberty Flames under 51.5 24.6% 24.9% 19.0% 1.31× 4.02
NC State Wolfpack over 85.5 21.4% 24.9% 9.8% 2.54× 4.02
Liberty Flames over 65.5 19.2% 19.3% 40.2% 0.48× 5.18
NC State Wolfpack under 68.5 15.7% 19.3% 54.4% 0.35× 5.18
Liberty Flames under 48.5 14.9% 16.1% 13.3% 1.21× 6.21
NC State Wolfpack over 88.5 13.3% 16.1% 6.9% 2.32× 6.21
Liberty Flames over 68.5 11.5% 16.1% 31.4% 0.51× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 156.5 points 92.0% 88.8% 91.3% 0.97× 1.13
Over 116.5 points 91.1% 88.8% 77.2% 1.15× 1.13
Under 151.5 points 85.8% 85.0% 87.3% 0.97× 1.18
Over 121.5 points 83.7% 80.6% 67.7% 1.19× 1.24
Under 146.5 points 76.9% 75.6% 80.9% 0.93× 1.32
Over 126.5 points 73.4% 70.8% 57.4% 1.24× 1.41
Under 143.5 points 70.4% 70.8% 76.7% 0.92× 1.41
Over 129.5 points 66.2% 65.9% 50.5% 1.30× 1.52
Under 141.5 points 65.6% 65.9% 73.4% 0.90× 1.52
Over 131.5 points 61.0% 61.5% 46.1% 1.33× 1.63
Under 139.5 points 60.5% 61.5% 69.9% 0.88× 1.63
Over 133.5 points 55.7% 56.5% 42.0% 1.35× 1.77
Under 137.5 points 55.2% 56.5% 66.2% 0.85× 1.77
Under 136.5 points 52.5% 52.3% 64.2% 0.81× 1.91
Over 135.5 points 50.2% 52.3% 37.6% 1.39× 1.91
Under 135.5 points 49.8% 47.7% 62.4% 0.76× 2.10
Over 136.5 points 47.5% 47.7% 35.8% 1.33× 2.10
Under 133.5 points 44.3% 43.5% 58.0% 0.75× 2.30
Over 137.5 points 44.8% 43.5% 33.8% 1.29× 2.30
Over 139.5 points 39.5% 38.5% 30.1% 1.28× 2.60
Under 131.5 points 39.0% 38.5% 53.9% 0.71× 2.60
Under 129.5 points 33.8% 34.1% 49.5% 0.69× 2.93
Over 141.5 points 34.5% 34.1% 26.6% 1.28× 2.93
Over 143.5 points 29.6% 29.2% 23.3% 1.25× 3.43
Under 126.5 points 26.6% 29.2% 42.6% 0.68× 3.43
Over 146.5 points 23.1% 24.4% 19.1% 1.28× 4.10
Under 121.5 points 16.3% 19.4% 32.3% 0.60× 5.15
Over 151.5 points 14.2% 15.0% 12.8% 1.17× 6.68
Under 116.5 points 8.9% 11.2% 22.8% 0.49× 8.96
Over 156.5 points 8.0% 11.2% 8.7% 1.29× 8.96
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
NC State Wolfpack to win both halves 73.0% 72.0% 36.0% 2.00× 1.39
Liberty Flames to win both halves 0.7% 3.0% 20.4% 0.15× 33.81
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
NC State Wolfpack by 26+ 31.3% 37.6% 12.6% 2.98× 2.66
NC State Wolfpack by 16-20 17.7% 16.8% 8.0% 2.08× 5.97
NC State Wolfpack by 21-25 17.5% 16.8% 5.4% 3.11× 5.97
NC State Wolfpack by 11-15 14.7% 12.3% 10.8% 1.14× 8.11
NC State Wolfpack by 6-10 10.0% 7.5% 12.9% 0.58× 13.40
NC State Wolfpack by 1-5 5.6% 7.5% 10.2% 0.73× 13.40
Liberty Flames by 6-10 0.8% 2.0% 10.3% 0.20× 49.32
Liberty Flames by 1-5 2.2% 2.0% 10.2% 0.20× 49.31
Liberty Flames by 11-15 0.2% 2.0% 7.6% 0.27× 49.33
Liberty Flames by 16-20 0.1% 2.0% 4.8% 0.43× 49.33
Liberty Flames by 21-25 0.0% 2.0% 2.7% 0.76× 49.33
Liberty Flames by 26+ 0.0% 2.0% 4.6% 0.44× 49.33
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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