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New York Knicks v Cleveland Cavaliers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 12 November 2026 · NBA · 2027

NBA results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
New York Knicks win
72.6%
Draw
0.0%
Cleveland Cavaliers win
27.4%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 115.85–107.37 116-107 0% 49% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks to score 100+ 91.8% 90.3% 89.3% 1.01× 1.11
Cleveland Cavaliers to score 100+ 74.6% 72.4% 85.9% 0.84× 1.38
New York Knicks to score 110+ 70.8% 72.3% 67.0% 1.08× 1.38
Both sides to score 100+ 69.6% 63.9% 77.5% 0.82× 1.57
Cleveland Cavaliers to score 110+ 42.4% 41.9% 60.9% 0.69× 2.39
New York Knicks to score 120+ 38.3% 36.0% 36.5% 0.99× 2.78
Cleveland Cavaliers to score 120+ 14.8% 13.9% 29.7% 0.47× 7.22
New York Knicks to score 130+ 12.5% 13.8% 12.8% 1.08× 7.24
Cleveland Cavaliers to score 130+ 2.9% 0.4% 10.0% 0.04× 282.79
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks to win H1 63.5% 62.2% 52.8% 1.18× 1.61
Cleveland Cavaliers to win H1 33.3% 33.1% 44.1% 0.75× 3.02
H1 tied 3.3% 3.9% 3.1% 1.25× 25.87
H1 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 over 100.5 82.5% 82.5% 86.8% 0.95× 1.21
H1 under 124.5 81.9% 82.5% 78.4% 1.05× 1.21
H1 over 104.5 73.5% 73.5% 78.3% 0.94× 1.36
H1 under 120.5 72.7% 73.5% 68.4% 1.07× 1.36
H1 over 107.5 65.4% 67.4% 70.4% 0.96× 1.48
H1 under 117.5 64.5% 62.7% 59.6% 1.05× 1.59
H1 over 109.5 59.6% 58.2% 65.0% 0.90× 1.72
H1 under 115.5 58.6% 58.2% 53.6% 1.09× 1.72
H1 over 111.5 53.6% 52.6% 59.0% 0.89× 1.90
H1 under 113.5 52.6% 52.6% 47.6% 1.11× 1.90
H1 over 112.5 50.5% 52.6% 55.8% 0.94× 1.90
H1 under 112.5 49.5% 47.4% 44.2% 1.07× 2.11
H1 under 111.5 46.4% 47.4% 41.0% 1.15× 2.11
H1 over 113.5 47.4% 47.4% 52.4% 0.90× 2.11
H1 over 115.5 41.4% 41.8% 46.4% 0.90× 2.39
H1 under 109.5 40.4% 41.8% 35.0% 1.19× 2.39
H1 over 117.5 35.5% 37.3% 40.4% 0.92× 2.68
H1 under 107.5 34.6% 32.6% 29.6% 1.10× 3.07
H1 over 120.5 27.3% 26.5% 31.6% 0.84× 3.77
H1 under 104.5 26.5% 26.5% 21.7% 1.22× 3.77
H1 over 124.5 18.1% 17.5% 21.7% 0.81× 5.73
H1 under 100.5 17.5% 17.5% 13.2% 1.33× 5.73
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks to win H2 63.3% 58.8% 51.6% 1.14× 1.70
Cleveland Cavaliers to win H2 33.4% 36.3% 44.7% 0.81× 2.75
H2 tied 3.3% 3.9% 3.7% 1.06× 25.36
H2 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 over 98.5 82.5% 81.8% 86.2% 0.95× 1.22
H2 under 122.5 82.3% 81.8% 74.4% 1.10× 1.22
H2 over 102.5 73.4% 72.2% 78.5% 0.92× 1.39
H2 under 118.5 73.1% 72.2% 63.6% 1.14× 1.39
H2 over 105.5 65.3% 66.4% 71.3% 0.93× 1.51
H2 under 115.5 64.9% 61.6% 55.4% 1.11× 1.62
H2 over 107.5 59.4% 57.3% 66.2% 0.87× 1.74
H2 under 113.5 59.0% 57.3% 50.1% 1.14× 1.74
H2 over 109.5 53.3% 52.4% 60.9% 0.86× 1.91
H2 under 111.5 52.9% 52.4% 44.7% 1.17× 1.91
H2 over 110.5 50.2% 52.4% 58.1% 0.90× 1.91
H2 under 110.5 49.8% 47.6% 41.9% 1.14× 2.10
H2 under 109.5 46.7% 47.6% 39.1% 1.22× 2.10
H2 over 111.5 47.1% 47.6% 55.3% 0.86× 2.10
H2 over 113.5 41.0% 42.7% 49.9% 0.85× 2.35
H2 under 107.5 40.6% 42.7% 33.8% 1.26× 2.35
H2 over 115.5 35.1% 38.4% 44.6% 0.86× 2.61
H2 under 105.5 34.7% 33.6% 28.7% 1.17× 2.97
H2 over 118.5 26.9% 27.8% 36.4% 0.76× 3.59
H2 under 102.5 26.6% 27.8% 21.5% 1.29× 3.59
H2 under 98.5 17.5% 18.2% 13.8% 1.31× 5.50
H2 over 122.5 17.7% 18.2% 25.6% 0.71× 5.50
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks leading at half time 63.5% 62.5% 52.8% 1.18× 1.60
Cleveland Cavaliers leading at half time 33.3% 32.7% 44.1% 0.74× 3.05
Level at half time 3.3% 3.8% 3.1% 1.22× 26.41
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks +16.5 95.7% 97.4% 89.7% 1.09× 1.03
New York Knicks +18.5 96.8% 97.4% 91.5% 1.06× 1.03
New York Knicks +20.5 97.7% 97.4% 93.1% 1.05× 1.03
New York Knicks +14.5 94.2% 91.1% 87.0% 1.05× 1.10
New York Knicks +12.5 92.4% 91.1% 83.9% 1.09× 1.10
New York Knicks +10.5 90.3% 91.1% 80.3% 1.14× 1.10
New York Knicks +9.5 89.0% 85.9% 78.1% 1.10× 1.16
New York Knicks +8.5 87.6% 85.9% 75.7% 1.13× 1.16
New York Knicks +7.5 86.2% 85.9% 73.0% 1.18× 1.16
New York Knicks +6.5 84.6% 81.1% 70.6% 1.15× 1.23
New York Knicks +5.5 82.9% 81.1% 68.0% 1.19× 1.23
New York Knicks +4.5 81.0% 81.1% 65.7% 1.23× 1.23
New York Knicks +3.5 79.1% 76.5% 63.1% 1.21× 1.31
Cleveland Cavaliers +20.5 79.1% 76.5% 89.1% 0.86× 1.31
New York Knicks +2.5 77.0% 76.5% 60.5% 1.26× 1.31
New York Knicks +1.5 74.9% 71.6% 57.9% 1.24× 1.40
Cleveland Cavaliers +18.5 74.9% 71.6% 86.4% 0.83× 1.40
New York Knicks −1.5 70.1% 71.6% 53.7% 1.33× 1.40
Cleveland Cavaliers +16.5 70.3% 71.6% 83.5% 0.86× 1.40
New York Knicks −2.5 67.6% 66.7% 50.9% 1.31× 1.50
Cleveland Cavaliers +14.5 65.3% 66.7% 80.1% 0.83× 1.50
New York Knicks −3.5 65.0% 61.9% 48.4% 1.28× 1.62
New York Knicks −4.5 62.3% 61.9% 46.0% 1.35× 1.62
New York Knicks −5.5 59.5% 57.1% 42.9% 1.33× 1.75
Cleveland Cavaliers +12.5 60.0% 57.1% 76.0% 0.75× 1.75
New York Knicks −6.5 56.8% 57.1% 40.0% 1.43× 1.75
Cleveland Cavaliers +10.5 54.5% 52.4% 71.0% 0.74× 1.91
New York Knicks −7.5 54.0% 52.4% 37.0% 1.41× 1.91
New York Knicks −8.5 51.2% 52.4% 34.1% 1.54× 1.91
Cleveland Cavaliers +9.5 51.7% 52.4% 68.7% 0.76× 1.91
Cleveland Cavaliers +8.5 48.9% 47.6% 65.9% 0.72× 2.10
New York Knicks −9.5 48.3% 47.6% 31.3% 1.52× 2.10
Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5 46.0% 47.6% 63.0% 0.76× 2.10
New York Knicks −10.5 45.5% 47.6% 29.0% 1.64× 2.10
Cleveland Cavaliers +6.5 43.2% 42.9% 60.0% 0.72× 2.33
Cleveland Cavaliers +5.5 40.5% 42.9% 57.1% 0.75× 2.33
New York Knicks −12.5 40.0% 42.9% 24.0% 1.79× 2.33
Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5 37.7% 38.1% 54.1% 0.70× 2.63
Cleveland Cavaliers +3.5 35.0% 38.1% 51.6% 0.74× 2.63
New York Knicks −14.5 34.7% 33.3% 19.9% 1.68× 3.01
Cleveland Cavaliers +2.5 32.4% 33.3% 49.1% 0.68× 3.01
Cleveland Cavaliers +1.5 29.9% 28.4% 46.3% 0.61× 3.53
New York Knicks −16.5 29.7% 28.4% 16.5% 1.72× 3.53
Cleveland Cavaliers −1.5 25.1% 28.4% 42.1% 0.67× 3.53
New York Knicks −18.5 25.1% 28.4% 13.6% 2.08× 3.53
Cleveland Cavaliers −2.5 23.0% 23.5% 39.5% 0.60× 4.25
Cleveland Cavaliers −3.5 20.9% 23.5% 36.9% 0.64× 4.25
New York Knicks −20.5 20.9% 23.5% 10.9% 2.16× 4.25
Cleveland Cavaliers −4.5 19.0% 18.9% 34.3% 0.55× 5.29
Cleveland Cavaliers −5.5 17.1% 18.9% 32.0% 0.59× 5.29
Cleveland Cavaliers −6.5 15.4% 18.9% 29.4% 0.64× 5.30
Cleveland Cavaliers −7.5 13.8% 14.1% 27.0% 0.52× 7.09
Cleveland Cavaliers −8.5 12.4% 14.1% 24.3% 0.58× 7.09
Cleveland Cavaliers −9.5 11.0% 14.1% 21.9% 0.65× 7.09
Cleveland Cavaliers −10.5 9.7% 8.9% 19.7% 0.45× 11.25
Cleveland Cavaliers −12.5 7.6% 8.9% 16.1% 0.55× 11.25
Cleveland Cavaliers −14.5 5.8% 8.9% 13.0% 0.68× 11.25
Cleveland Cavaliers −16.5 4.3% 2.6% 10.3% 0.25× 38.72
Cleveland Cavaliers −18.5 3.2% 2.6% 8.5% 0.30× 38.73
Cleveland Cavaliers −20.5 2.3% 2.6% 6.9% 0.37× 38.73
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1st half highest scoring 56.5% 52.6% 53.5% 0.98× 1.90
2nd half highest scoring 43.5% 47.4% 46.5% 1.02× 2.11
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 highest scoring 28.2% 27.4% 29.2% 0.94× 3.65
Q3 highest scoring 27.8% 27.4% 27.5% 1.00× 3.65
Q2 highest scoring 26.5% 27.4% 26.3% 1.04× 3.65
Q4 highest scoring 17.4% 18.3% 17.0% 1.08× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks at HT / New York Knicks at FT 55.5% 56.8% 40.8% 1.39× 1.76
Cleveland Cavaliers at HT / Cleveland Cavaliers at FT 18.4% 15.5% 30.9% 0.50× 6.47
Cleveland Cavaliers at HT / New York Knicks at FT 14.9% 12.2% 13.3% 0.92× 8.17
New York Knicks at HT / Cleveland Cavaliers at FT 8.0% 8.3% 12.0% 0.69× 12.09
Level at HT / New York Knicks at FT 2.2% 2.1% 1.7% 1.22× 47.75
Level at HT / Cleveland Cavaliers at FT 1.0% 2.1% 1.4% 1.49× 47.77
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks to win 72.6% 68.7% 55.7% 1.23× 1.46
Cleveland Cavaliers to win 27.4% 31.3% 44.3% 0.71× 3.20
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks even 50.0% 50.5% 49.7% 1.02× 1.98
Cleveland Cavaliers even 50.0% 50.5% 50.3% 1.00× 1.98
Total points odd 51.2% 50.5% 51.0% 0.99× 1.98
New York Knicks odd 50.0% 49.5% 50.3% 0.98× 2.02
Cleveland Cavaliers odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.7% 1.00× 2.02
Total points even 48.8% 49.5% 49.0% 1.01× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 94.1% 94.0% 94.8% 0.99× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 5.9% 6.0% 5.2% 1.16× 16.66
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks to win Q1 58.1% 57.3% 51.3% 1.12× 1.75
Cleveland Cavaliers to win Q1 37.3% 38.2% 44.1% 0.87× 2.62
Q1 tied 4.6% 4.2% 4.6% 0.90× 23.95
Q1 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 under 64.5 82.8% 82.8% 80.1% 1.03× 1.21
Q1 over 48.5 82.6% 82.8% 85.6% 0.97× 1.21
Q1 under 61.5 72.3% 72.7% 68.5% 1.06× 1.38
Q1 over 51.5 72.1% 72.7% 76.0% 0.96× 1.38
Q1 under 59.5 63.9% 61.7% 60.0% 1.03× 1.62
Q1 over 53.5 63.7% 61.7% 68.2% 0.90× 1.62
Q1 under 57.5 54.8% 52.7% 50.4% 1.04× 1.90
Q1 over 55.5 54.6% 52.7% 59.2% 0.89× 1.90
Q1 under 56.5 50.1% 52.7% 45.4% 1.16× 1.90
Q1 over 56.5 49.9% 47.3% 54.6% 0.87× 2.11
Q1 under 55.5 45.4% 47.3% 40.8% 1.16× 2.11
Q1 over 57.5 45.2% 47.3% 49.6% 0.96× 2.11
Q1 under 53.5 36.3% 38.3% 31.8% 1.21× 2.61
Q1 over 59.5 36.1% 38.3% 40.0% 0.96× 2.61
Q1 under 51.5 27.9% 27.3% 24.0% 1.14× 3.66
Q1 over 61.5 27.7% 27.3% 31.5% 0.87× 3.66
Q1 under 48.5 17.4% 17.2% 14.4% 1.19× 5.83
Q1 over 64.5 17.2% 17.2% 19.9% 0.86× 5.83
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks to win Q2 58.0% 59.4% 49.3% 1.20× 1.68
Cleveland Cavaliers to win Q2 37.4% 35.8% 46.2% 0.77× 2.80
Q2 tied 4.6% 4.4% 4.5% 0.98× 22.89
Q2 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 under 64.5 83.5% 83.0% 80.9% 1.03× 1.21
Q2 over 48.5 81.6% 83.0% 84.7% 0.98× 1.21
Q2 under 61.5 73.3% 72.0% 70.4% 1.02× 1.39
Q2 over 51.5 70.8% 72.0% 74.2% 0.97× 1.39
Q2 under 59.5 65.1% 67.4% 61.9% 1.09× 1.49
Q2 over 53.5 62.3% 60.7% 65.8% 0.92× 1.65
Q2 under 57.5 56.1% 58.2% 52.7% 1.10× 1.72
Q2 over 55.5 53.2% 52.7% 56.3% 0.94× 1.90
Q2 under 56.5 51.5% 52.7% 48.3% 1.09× 1.90
Q2 over 56.5 48.5% 47.3% 51.7% 0.92× 2.11
Q2 under 55.5 46.8% 47.3% 43.7% 1.08× 2.11
Q2 over 57.5 43.9% 41.8% 47.3% 0.89× 2.39
Q2 under 53.5 37.7% 39.3% 34.2% 1.15× 2.55
Q2 over 59.5 34.9% 32.6% 38.1% 0.86× 3.06
Q2 under 51.5 29.2% 28.0% 25.8% 1.09× 3.57
Q2 over 61.5 26.7% 28.0% 29.6% 0.95× 3.57
Q2 under 48.5 18.4% 17.0% 15.3% 1.11× 5.88
Q2 over 64.5 16.5% 17.0% 19.1% 0.89× 5.88
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks to win Q3 58.0% 56.8% 50.9% 1.12× 1.76
Cleveland Cavaliers to win Q3 37.4% 38.8% 44.3% 0.88× 2.58
Q3 tied 4.6% 4.3% 4.9% 0.88× 23.43
Q3 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 over 48.5 83.3% 82.3% 85.6% 0.96× 1.22
Q3 under 64.5 82.5% 82.3% 79.2% 1.04× 1.22
Q3 over 51.5 72.9% 71.8% 76.1% 0.94× 1.39
Q3 under 61.5 71.9% 71.8% 67.7% 1.06× 1.39
Q3 over 53.5 64.5% 62.0% 68.3% 0.91× 1.61
Q3 under 59.5 63.4% 62.0% 59.0% 1.05× 1.61
Q3 over 55.5 55.3% 58.4% 59.9% 0.97× 1.71
Q3 under 57.5 54.1% 52.3% 49.8% 1.05× 1.91
Q3 over 56.5 50.6% 52.3% 55.0% 0.95× 1.91
Q3 under 56.5 49.4% 47.7% 45.0% 1.06× 2.10
Q3 over 57.5 45.9% 47.7% 50.2% 0.95× 2.10
Q3 under 55.5 44.7% 41.6% 40.1% 1.04× 2.40
Q3 over 59.5 36.6% 38.0% 41.0% 0.93× 2.63
Q3 under 53.5 35.5% 38.0% 31.7% 1.20× 2.63
Q3 over 61.5 28.1% 28.2% 32.3% 0.87× 3.55
Q3 under 51.5 27.1% 28.2% 23.9% 1.18× 3.55
Q3 over 64.5 17.5% 17.7% 20.8% 0.85× 5.66
Q3 under 48.5 16.7% 17.7% 14.4% 1.23× 5.66
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks to win Q4 57.8% 52.1% 48.3% 1.08× 1.92
Cleveland Cavaliers to win Q4 37.5% 42.4% 46.4% 0.91× 2.36
Q4 tied 4.7% 5.2% 5.3% 0.98× 19.28
Q4 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 under 62.5 83.8% 82.0% 80.4% 1.02× 1.22
Q4 over 46.5 80.4% 82.0% 81.7% 1.00× 1.22
Q4 under 59.5 74.0% 71.5% 70.2% 1.02× 1.40
Q4 over 49.5 69.5% 67.4% 72.3% 0.93× 1.48
Q4 under 57.5 66.0% 67.4% 61.9% 1.09× 1.48
Q4 over 51.5 61.0% 61.4% 64.7% 0.95× 1.63
Q4 under 55.5 57.2% 58.4% 52.9% 1.10× 1.71
Q4 under 54.5 52.6% 52.5% 48.6% 1.08× 1.91
Q4 over 53.5 52.0% 52.5% 55.7% 0.94× 1.91
Q4 under 53.5 48.0% 47.5% 44.3% 1.07× 2.11
Q4 over 54.5 47.4% 47.5% 51.4% 0.92× 2.11
Q4 over 55.5 42.8% 41.6% 47.1% 0.88× 2.40
Q4 under 51.5 39.0% 38.6% 35.3% 1.09× 2.59
Q4 over 57.5 34.0% 32.6% 38.1% 0.86× 3.07
Q4 under 49.5 30.5% 32.6% 27.7% 1.18× 3.07
Q4 over 59.5 26.0% 28.5% 29.8% 0.96× 3.51
Q4 under 46.5 19.6% 18.0% 18.3% 0.98× 5.56
Q4 over 62.5 16.2% 18.0% 19.6% 0.92× 5.56
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks under 126.5 81.4% 80.7% 81.5% 0.99× 1.24
Cleveland Cavaliers under 117.5 80.9% 80.7% 64.4% 1.25× 1.24
Cleveland Cavaliers over 97.5 79.8% 75.1% 89.3% 0.84× 1.33
New York Knicks over 106.5 78.9% 75.1% 75.1% 1.00× 1.33
New York Knicks under 123.5 73.8% 70.7% 74.4% 0.95× 1.41
Cleveland Cavaliers under 114.5 73.2% 70.7% 55.5% 1.27× 1.41
Cleveland Cavaliers over 100.5 71.8% 70.7% 84.1% 0.84× 1.41
New York Knicks over 109.5 70.8% 70.7% 67.0% 1.06× 1.41
New York Knicks under 121.5 68.0% 66.4% 69.6% 0.95× 1.51
Cleveland Cavaliers under 112.5 67.3% 66.4% 48.5% 1.37× 1.51
Cleveland Cavaliers over 102.5 65.8% 66.4% 79.7% 0.83× 1.51
New York Knicks over 111.5 64.8% 61.2% 61.1% 1.00× 1.63
New York Knicks under 119.5 61.7% 61.2% 63.5% 0.96× 1.63
Cleveland Cavaliers under 110.5 61.0% 61.2% 42.1% 1.45× 1.63
Cleveland Cavaliers over 104.5 59.3% 57.1% 75.0% 0.76× 1.75
New York Knicks over 113.5 58.3% 57.1% 54.3% 1.05× 1.75
New York Knicks under 117.5 55.1% 57.1% 57.8% 0.99× 1.75
Cleveland Cavaliers under 108.5 54.3% 52.3% 36.0% 1.45× 1.91
New York Knicks over 115.5 51.6% 52.3% 48.4% 1.08× 1.91
New York Knicks under 116.5 51.8% 52.3% 54.7% 0.95× 1.91
Cleveland Cavaliers over 106.5 52.5% 52.3% 68.9% 0.76× 1.91
Cleveland Cavaliers under 107.5 50.9% 52.3% 33.4% 1.57× 1.91
Cleveland Cavaliers over 107.5 49.1% 47.7% 66.6% 0.72× 2.09
New York Knicks under 115.5 48.4% 47.7% 51.6% 0.93× 2.09
New York Knicks over 116.5 48.2% 47.7% 45.3% 1.05× 2.09
Cleveland Cavaliers under 106.5 47.5% 47.7% 31.1% 1.54× 2.09
Cleveland Cavaliers over 108.5 45.7% 47.7% 64.0% 0.75× 2.09
New York Knicks over 117.5 44.9% 42.9% 42.2% 1.02× 2.33
New York Knicks under 113.5 41.7% 42.9% 45.7% 0.94× 2.33
Cleveland Cavaliers under 104.5 40.7% 42.9% 25.0% 1.72× 2.33
New York Knicks over 119.5 38.3% 38.8% 36.5% 1.06× 2.58
Cleveland Cavaliers over 110.5 39.0% 38.8% 57.9% 0.67× 2.58
New York Knicks under 111.5 35.2% 38.8% 38.9% 1.00× 2.58
Cleveland Cavaliers under 102.5 34.2% 33.6% 20.3% 1.65× 2.98
New York Knicks over 121.5 32.0% 33.6% 30.4% 1.10× 2.98
Cleveland Cavaliers over 112.5 32.7% 33.6% 51.5% 0.65× 2.98
New York Knicks under 109.5 29.2% 29.3% 33.0% 0.89× 3.42
Cleveland Cavaliers under 100.5 28.2% 29.3% 15.9% 1.85× 3.42
New York Knicks over 123.5 26.2% 29.3% 25.6% 1.14× 3.42
Cleveland Cavaliers over 114.5 26.8% 29.3% 44.5% 0.66× 3.42
New York Knicks under 106.5 21.1% 24.9% 24.9% 1.00× 4.02
Cleveland Cavaliers under 97.5 20.2% 24.9% 10.7% 2.31× 4.02
Cleveland Cavaliers over 117.5 19.1% 19.3% 35.6% 0.54× 5.18
New York Knicks over 126.5 18.6% 19.3% 18.5% 1.05× 5.18
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 243.5 points 86.5% 85.0% 78.2% 1.09× 1.18
Over 203.5 points 85.8% 85.0% 89.8% 0.95× 1.18
Under 238.5 points 79.7% 75.6% 70.9% 1.07× 1.32
Over 208.5 points 78.8% 75.6% 84.1% 0.90× 1.32
Under 233.5 points 71.2% 70.8% 61.4% 1.15× 1.41
Over 213.5 points 70.1% 70.8% 76.4% 0.93× 1.41
Under 230.5 points 65.4% 65.9% 55.4% 1.19× 1.52
Over 216.5 points 64.3% 61.5% 71.6% 0.86× 1.63
Under 228.5 points 61.3% 61.5% 51.3% 1.20× 1.63
Over 218.5 points 60.1% 61.5% 67.8% 0.91× 1.63
Under 226.5 points 57.1% 56.5% 47.3% 1.20× 1.77
Over 220.5 points 55.9% 56.5% 64.2% 0.88× 1.77
Over 222.5 points 51.6% 52.3% 60.4% 0.87× 1.91
Under 224.5 points 52.7% 52.3% 43.5% 1.20× 1.91
Under 223.5 points 50.6% 52.3% 41.7% 1.25× 1.91
Over 223.5 points 49.4% 47.7% 58.3% 0.82× 2.10
Under 222.5 points 48.4% 47.7% 39.6% 1.20× 2.10
Over 224.5 points 47.3% 47.7% 56.5% 0.84× 2.10
Under 220.5 points 44.1% 43.5% 35.8% 1.21× 2.30
Over 226.5 points 42.9% 43.5% 52.7% 0.82× 2.30
Under 218.5 points 39.9% 38.5% 32.2% 1.20× 2.60
Over 228.5 points 38.7% 38.5% 48.7% 0.79× 2.60
Under 216.5 points 35.7% 38.5% 28.4% 1.36× 2.60
Over 230.5 points 34.6% 34.1% 44.6% 0.76× 2.93
Under 213.5 points 29.9% 29.2% 23.6% 1.24× 3.43
Over 233.5 points 28.8% 29.2% 38.6% 0.75× 3.43
Under 208.5 points 21.2% 24.4% 15.9% 1.53× 4.10
Over 238.5 points 20.3% 24.4% 29.1% 0.84× 4.10
Under 203.5 points 14.2% 15.0% 10.2% 1.47× 6.68
Over 243.5 points 13.5% 15.0% 21.8% 0.69× 6.68
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks to win both halves 38.2% 36.3% 25.2% 1.44× 2.75
Cleveland Cavaliers to win both halves 9.3% 8.8% 17.8% 0.50× 11.30
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks by 1-5 13.1% 12.3% 12.8% 0.96× 8.11
New York Knicks by 6-10 14.0% 12.3% 13.9% 0.88× 8.11
New York Knicks by 11-15 13.4% 12.3% 10.8% 1.14× 8.11
New York Knicks by 26+ 12.3% 12.3% 6.2% 1.99× 8.11
New York Knicks by 16-20 11.3% 12.3% 7.3% 1.68× 8.11
Cleveland Cavaliers by 1-5 10.3% 12.3% 12.3% 1.01× 8.11
New York Knicks by 21-25 8.5% 7.5% 4.7% 1.58× 13.40
Cleveland Cavaliers by 6-10 7.4% 7.5% 12.3% 0.61× 13.40
Cleveland Cavaliers by 11-15 4.7% 2.0% 8.0% 0.25× 49.29
Cleveland Cavaliers by 16-20 2.7% 2.0% 4.9% 0.42× 49.30
Cleveland Cavaliers by 21-25 1.4% 2.0% 3.0% 0.67× 49.32
Cleveland Cavaliers by 26+ 1.0% 2.0% 3.9% 0.53× 49.32
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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