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New York Knicks v Orlando Magic — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 25 October 2026 · NBA · 2027

NBA results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
New York Knicks win
78.3%
Draw
0.0%
Orlando Magic win
21.7%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 114.53–103.46 114-103 0% 49% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks to score 100+ 90.0% 90.3% 89.3% 1.01× 1.11
New York Knicks to score 110+ 67.0% 63.8% 67.0% 0.95× 1.57
Orlando Magic to score 100+ 62.9% 61.8% 85.9% 0.72× 1.62
Both sides to score 100+ 58.0% 56.4% 77.5% 0.73× 1.77
New York Knicks to score 120+ 34.1% 31.4% 36.5% 0.86× 3.18
Orlando Magic to score 110+ 29.9% 27.6% 60.9% 0.45× 3.63
New York Knicks to score 130+ 10.4% 13.8% 12.8% 1.07× 7.25
Orlando Magic to score 120+ 8.4% 8.8% 29.7% 0.30× 11.36
Orlando Magic to score 130+ 1.3% 0.4% 10.0% 0.04× 283.11
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks to win H1 67.8% 68.3% 52.8% 1.29× 1.47
Orlando Magic to win H1 29.1% 26.6% 44.1% 0.60× 3.77
H1 tied 3.1% 3.9% 3.1% 1.25× 25.87
H1 total 34
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 124.5 82.6% 83.2% 78.4% 1.06× 1.20
H1 over 100.5 81.2% 83.2% 86.8% 0.96× 1.20
H1 under 122.5 83.1% 82.5% 74.0% 1.12× 1.21
H1 over 98.5 81.2% 82.5% 90.0% 0.92× 1.21
H1 under 120.5 73.8% 74.0% 68.4% 1.08× 1.35
H1 over 104.5 72.0% 74.0% 78.3% 0.95× 1.35
H1 under 118.5 74.3% 73.5% 62.9% 1.17× 1.36
H1 over 102.5 71.9% 73.5% 83.0% 0.89× 1.36
H1 under 117.5 65.8% 68.1% 59.6% 1.14× 1.47
H1 under 115.5 66.3% 67.4% 53.6% 1.26× 1.48
H1 over 105.5 63.6% 62.7% 75.8% 0.83× 1.59
H1 under 113.5 60.5% 62.7% 47.6% 1.32× 1.59
H1 over 107.5 57.7% 58.2% 70.4% 0.83× 1.72
H1 under 111.5 54.5% 52.6% 41.0% 1.28× 1.90
H1 under 110.5 51.5% 52.6% 38.1% 1.38× 1.90
H1 over 109.5 51.6% 52.6% 65.0% 0.81× 1.90
H1 under 112.5 51.1% 52.5% 44.2% 1.19× 1.90
H1 over 112.5 48.9% 47.5% 55.8% 0.85× 2.11
H1 over 110.5 48.5% 47.4% 61.9% 0.76× 2.11
H1 under 109.5 48.4% 47.4% 35.0% 1.35× 2.11
H1 over 111.5 45.5% 47.4% 59.0% 0.80× 2.11
H1 under 107.5 42.3% 41.8% 29.6% 1.41× 2.39
H1 over 113.5 39.5% 37.3% 52.4% 0.71× 2.68
H1 under 105.5 36.4% 37.3% 24.2% 1.54× 2.68
H1 over 115.5 33.7% 32.6% 46.4% 0.70× 3.07
H1 over 117.5 34.2% 31.9% 40.4% 0.79× 3.13
H1 under 102.5 28.1% 26.5% 17.0% 1.56× 3.77
H1 over 118.5 25.7% 26.5% 37.1% 0.71× 3.77
H1 under 104.5 28.0% 26.1% 21.7% 1.20× 3.84
H1 over 120.5 26.2% 26.0% 31.6% 0.82× 3.84
H1 under 98.5 18.8% 17.5% 10.0% 1.75× 5.72
H1 over 122.5 16.9% 17.5% 26.0% 0.67× 5.73
H1 under 100.5 18.8% 16.8% 13.2% 1.28× 5.96
H1 over 124.5 17.4% 16.8% 21.7% 0.77× 5.96
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks to win H2 67.6% 62.8% 51.6% 1.22× 1.59
Orlando Magic to win H2 29.3% 31.3% 44.7% 0.70× 3.19
H2 tied 3.1% 3.9% 3.7% 1.06× 25.36
H2 total 34
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 120.5 83.5% 81.8% 69.3% 1.18× 1.22
H2 over 96.5 81.4% 81.8% 89.3% 0.92× 1.22
H2 under 122.5 83.1% 81.5% 74.4% 1.10× 1.23
H2 over 98.5 81.3% 81.5% 86.2% 0.95× 1.23
H2 under 118.5 74.2% 72.5% 63.6% 1.14× 1.38
H2 over 102.5 71.9% 72.5% 78.5% 0.92× 1.38
H2 under 116.5 74.6% 72.2% 58.1% 1.24× 1.39
H2 over 100.5 71.9% 72.2% 82.4% 0.88× 1.39
H2 under 113.5 66.6% 66.4% 50.1% 1.32× 1.51
H2 under 115.5 66.2% 64.4% 55.4% 1.16× 1.55
H2 over 103.5 63.6% 61.6% 76.2% 0.81× 1.62
H2 under 111.5 60.8% 61.6% 44.7% 1.38× 1.62
H2 over 105.5 57.6% 57.3% 71.3% 0.80× 1.74
H2 under 109.5 54.7% 52.4% 39.1% 1.34× 1.91
H2 under 108.5 51.6% 52.4% 36.2% 1.45× 1.91
H2 over 107.5 51.5% 52.4% 66.2% 0.79× 1.91
H2 under 110.5 51.4% 52.0% 41.9% 1.24× 1.92
H2 over 110.5 48.6% 48.0% 58.1% 0.82× 2.09
H2 over 108.5 48.4% 47.6% 63.8% 0.75× 2.10
H2 under 107.5 48.5% 47.6% 33.8% 1.41× 2.10
H2 over 109.5 45.3% 47.6% 60.9% 0.78× 2.10
H2 under 105.5 42.4% 42.7% 28.7% 1.49× 2.34
H2 over 111.5 39.2% 38.4% 55.3% 0.69× 2.61
H2 under 103.5 36.4% 38.4% 23.8% 1.61× 2.61
H2 over 115.5 33.8% 35.6% 44.6% 0.80× 2.81
H2 over 113.5 33.4% 33.6% 49.9% 0.67× 2.97
H2 under 100.5 28.1% 27.8% 17.6% 1.58× 3.59
H2 over 116.5 25.4% 27.8% 41.9% 0.66× 3.59
H2 under 102.5 28.1% 27.5% 21.5% 1.28× 3.63
H2 over 118.5 25.8% 27.5% 36.4% 0.76× 3.64
H2 under 98.5 18.7% 18.5% 13.8% 1.34× 5.41
H2 over 122.5 16.9% 18.5% 25.6% 0.72× 5.41
H2 under 96.5 18.7% 18.2% 10.7% 1.69× 5.50
H2 over 120.5 16.5% 18.2% 30.7% 0.59× 5.50
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks leading at half time 67.8% 68.4% 52.8% 1.30× 1.46
Orlando Magic leading at half time 29.1% 26.5% 44.1% 0.60× 3.77
Level at half time 3.1% 3.8% 3.1% 1.22× 26.42
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks +14.5 96.0% 97.4% 87.0% 1.12× 1.03
New York Knicks +16.5 97.1% 97.4% 89.7% 1.09× 1.03
New York Knicks +18.5 97.9% 97.4% 91.5% 1.06× 1.03
New York Knicks +20.5 98.5% 97.4% 93.1% 1.05× 1.03
New York Knicks +12.5 94.7% 91.1% 83.9% 1.09× 1.10
New York Knicks +10.5 93.0% 91.1% 80.3% 1.14× 1.10
New York Knicks +8.5 91.0% 91.1% 75.7% 1.20× 1.10
New York Knicks +9.5 92.0% 91.1% 78.1% 1.17× 1.10
New York Knicks +6.5 88.5% 85.9% 70.6% 1.22× 1.16
New York Knicks +7.5 89.8% 85.9% 73.0% 1.18× 1.16
New York Knicks +5.5 87.1% 85.9% 68.0% 1.26× 1.16
New York Knicks +4.5 85.6% 85.9% 65.7% 1.31× 1.16
New York Knicks +3.5 83.9% 81.1% 63.1% 1.29× 1.23
New York Knicks +2.5 82.2% 81.1% 60.5% 1.34× 1.23
New York Knicks +1.5 80.3% 81.1% 57.9% 1.40× 1.23
New York Knicks −1.5 76.1% 76.5% 53.7% 1.42× 1.31
Orlando Magic +20.5 73.7% 71.6% 89.1% 0.80× 1.40
New York Knicks −2.5 73.8% 71.6% 50.9% 1.41× 1.40
New York Knicks −3.5 71.4% 71.6% 48.4% 1.48× 1.40
Orlando Magic +18.5 68.9% 66.7% 86.4% 0.77× 1.50
New York Knicks −4.5 68.9% 66.7% 46.0% 1.45× 1.50
New York Knicks −5.5 66.3% 66.7% 42.9% 1.56× 1.50
Orlando Magic +16.5 63.9% 61.9% 83.5% 0.74× 1.62
New York Knicks −6.5 63.7% 61.9% 40.0% 1.55× 1.62
New York Knicks −7.5 61.0% 61.9% 37.0% 1.67× 1.62
Orlando Magic +14.5 58.5% 57.1% 80.1% 0.71× 1.75
New York Knicks −8.5 58.2% 57.1% 34.1% 1.67× 1.75
New York Knicks −9.5 55.4% 57.1% 31.3% 1.83× 1.75
Orlando Magic +12.5 53.0% 52.4% 76.0% 0.69× 1.91
New York Knicks −10.5 52.6% 52.4% 29.0% 1.81× 1.91
New York Knicks −12.5 47.0% 47.6% 24.0% 1.98× 2.10
Orlando Magic +10.5 47.4% 47.6% 71.0% 0.67× 2.10
Orlando Magic +9.5 44.6% 42.9% 68.7% 0.62× 2.33
New York Knicks −14.5 41.5% 42.9% 19.9% 2.16× 2.33
Orlando Magic +8.5 41.8% 42.9% 65.9% 0.65× 2.33
Orlando Magic +7.5 39.0% 38.1% 63.0% 0.60× 2.63
Orlando Magic +6.5 36.3% 38.1% 60.0% 0.63× 2.63
New York Knicks −16.5 36.1% 38.1% 16.5% 2.31× 2.63
Orlando Magic +5.5 33.7% 33.3% 57.1% 0.58× 3.01
New York Knicks −18.5 31.1% 33.3% 13.6% 2.44× 3.01
Orlando Magic +4.5 31.1% 33.3% 54.1% 0.62× 3.01
Orlando Magic +3.5 28.6% 28.4% 51.6% 0.55× 3.53
New York Knicks −20.5 26.3% 28.4% 10.9% 2.61× 3.53
Orlando Magic +2.5 26.2% 28.4% 49.1% 0.58× 3.53
Orlando Magic +1.5 23.9% 23.5% 46.3% 0.51× 4.25
Orlando Magic −1.5 19.7% 18.9% 42.1% 0.45× 5.29
Orlando Magic −2.5 17.8% 18.9% 39.5% 0.48× 5.29
Orlando Magic −3.5 16.1% 18.9% 36.9% 0.51× 5.30
Orlando Magic −4.5 14.4% 14.1% 34.3% 0.41× 7.09
Orlando Magic −5.5 12.9% 14.1% 32.0% 0.44× 7.09
Orlando Magic −6.5 11.5% 14.1% 29.4% 0.48× 7.09
Orlando Magic −7.5 10.2% 14.1% 27.0% 0.52× 7.09
Orlando Magic −8.5 9.0% 8.9% 24.3% 0.37× 11.25
Orlando Magic −9.5 8.0% 8.9% 21.9% 0.41× 11.25
Orlando Magic −10.5 7.0% 8.9% 19.7% 0.45× 11.25
Orlando Magic −12.5 5.3% 8.9% 16.1% 0.55× 11.25
Orlando Magic −14.5 4.0% 2.6% 13.0% 0.20× 38.72
Orlando Magic −16.5 2.9% 2.6% 10.3% 0.25× 38.73
Orlando Magic −18.5 2.1% 2.6% 8.5% 0.30× 38.73
Orlando Magic −20.5 1.5% 2.6% 6.9% 0.37× 38.73
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1st half highest scoring 56.3% 52.6% 53.5% 0.98× 1.90
2nd half highest scoring 43.7% 47.4% 46.5% 1.02× 2.11
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 highest scoring 28.2% 27.4% 29.2% 0.94× 3.65
Q3 highest scoring 27.8% 27.4% 27.5% 1.00× 3.65
Q2 highest scoring 26.5% 27.4% 26.3% 1.04× 3.65
Q4 highest scoring 17.6% 18.3% 17.0% 1.08× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks at HT / New York Knicks at FT 61.3% 62.3% 40.8% 1.53× 1.61
Orlando Magic at HT / New York Knicks at FT 14.8% 12.2% 13.3% 0.92× 8.17
Orlando Magic at HT / Orlando Magic at FT 14.3% 12.2% 30.9% 0.40× 8.17
New York Knicks at HT / Orlando Magic at FT 6.5% 8.3% 12.0% 0.69× 12.09
Level at HT / New York Knicks at FT 2.2% 2.1% 1.7% 1.22× 47.75
Level at HT / Orlando Magic at FT 0.8% 2.1% 1.4% 1.49× 47.78
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks to win 78.3% 75.1% 55.7% 1.35× 1.33
Orlando Magic to win 21.7% 24.9% 44.3% 0.56× 4.02
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks even 50.0% 50.5% 49.7% 1.02× 1.98
Orlando Magic even 50.0% 50.5% 50.3% 1.00× 1.98
Total points odd 51.1% 50.5% 51.0% 0.99× 1.98
New York Knicks odd 50.0% 49.5% 50.3% 0.98× 2.02
Orlando Magic odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.7% 1.00× 2.02
Total points even 49.0% 49.5% 49.0% 1.01× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 94.8% 94.0% 94.8% 0.99× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 5.2% 6.0% 5.2% 1.16× 16.66
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks to win Q1 61.2% 64.9% 51.3% 1.26× 1.54
Orlando Magic to win Q1 34.3% 30.4% 44.1% 0.69× 3.29
Q1 tied 4.5% 4.2% 4.6% 0.90× 23.95
Q1 total 32
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 under 64.5 83.4% 83.2% 80.1% 1.04× 1.20
Q1 over 48.5 81.7% 83.2% 85.6% 0.97× 1.20
Q1 under 63.5 83.7% 82.8% 76.8% 1.08× 1.21
Q1 over 47.5 81.6% 82.8% 88.2% 0.94× 1.21
Q1 under 61.5 73.2% 73.1% 68.5% 1.07× 1.37
Q1 over 51.5 70.9% 73.1% 76.0% 0.96× 1.37
Q1 under 60.5 73.5% 72.7% 64.5% 1.13× 1.38
Q1 over 50.5 70.8% 72.7% 79.4% 0.92× 1.38
Q1 under 58.5 65.3% 67.6% 55.7% 1.21× 1.48
Q1 under 59.5 65.0% 62.3% 60.0% 1.04× 1.61
Q1 over 53.5 62.5% 62.3% 68.2% 0.91× 1.61
Q1 over 52.5 62.3% 61.7% 72.4% 0.85× 1.62
Q1 under 57.5 56.0% 59.2% 50.4% 1.17× 1.69
Q1 under 56.5 56.3% 58.6% 45.4% 1.29× 1.71
Q1 over 54.5 53.1% 52.7% 63.3% 0.83× 1.90
Q1 under 55.5 51.6% 52.7% 40.8% 1.29× 1.90
Q1 over 55.5 48.4% 47.3% 59.2% 0.80× 2.11
Q1 under 54.5 46.9% 47.3% 36.7% 1.29× 2.11
Q1 over 56.5 43.7% 41.4% 54.6% 0.76× 2.42
Q1 over 57.5 44.0% 40.8% 49.6% 0.82× 2.45
Q1 under 52.5 37.7% 38.3% 27.6% 1.39× 2.61
Q1 under 53.5 37.5% 37.7% 31.8% 1.19× 2.65
Q1 over 59.5 35.0% 37.7% 40.0% 0.94× 2.65
Q1 over 58.5 34.7% 32.4% 44.3% 0.73× 3.08
Q1 under 50.5 29.2% 27.3% 20.6% 1.33× 3.66
Q1 over 60.5 26.5% 27.3% 35.5% 0.77× 3.66
Q1 under 51.5 29.1% 26.9% 24.0% 1.12× 3.72
Q1 over 61.5 26.8% 26.9% 31.5% 0.85× 3.72
Q1 under 47.5 18.4% 17.2% 11.8% 1.46× 5.83
Q1 over 63.5 16.3% 17.2% 23.2% 0.74× 5.83
Q1 under 48.5 18.3% 16.8% 14.4% 1.16× 5.95
Q1 over 64.5 16.6% 16.8% 19.9% 0.84× 5.95
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks to win Q2 61.0% 61.9% 49.3% 1.25× 1.62
Orlando Magic to win Q2 34.5% 31.9% 46.2% 0.69× 3.14
Q2 tied 4.5% 4.4% 4.5% 0.98× 22.89
Q2 total 32
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 under 64.5 84.1% 83.1% 80.9% 1.03× 1.20
Q2 over 48.5 80.6% 83.1% 84.7% 0.98× 1.20
Q2 under 63.5 84.4% 83.0% 77.5% 1.07× 1.21
Q2 over 47.5 80.6% 83.0% 87.2% 0.95× 1.21
Q2 under 61.5 74.2% 73.0% 70.4% 1.04× 1.37
Q2 under 60.5 74.5% 72.0% 65.7% 1.10× 1.39
Q2 over 51.5 69.7% 67.7% 74.2% 0.91× 1.48
Q2 under 59.5 66.1% 67.6% 61.9% 1.09× 1.48
Q2 over 50.5 69.5% 67.4% 78.1% 0.86× 1.48
Q2 under 58.5 66.4% 67.4% 57.3% 1.17× 1.49
Q2 over 53.5 61.1% 62.0% 65.8% 0.94× 1.61
Q2 over 52.5 60.9% 60.7% 70.3% 0.86× 1.65
Q2 under 56.5 57.6% 58.2% 48.3% 1.20× 1.72
Q2 under 57.5 57.3% 57.8% 52.7% 1.10× 1.73
Q2 under 55.5 52.9% 52.7% 43.7% 1.21× 1.90
Q2 over 54.5 51.7% 52.7% 61.1% 0.86× 1.90
Q2 under 54.5 48.3% 47.3% 38.9% 1.22× 2.11
Q2 over 55.5 47.1% 47.3% 56.3% 0.84× 2.11
Q2 over 57.5 42.7% 42.2% 47.3% 0.89× 2.37
Q2 over 56.5 42.4% 41.8% 51.7% 0.81× 2.39
Q2 under 52.5 39.1% 39.3% 29.7% 1.32× 2.55
Q2 under 53.5 38.9% 38.0% 34.2% 1.11× 2.63
Q2 over 58.5 33.6% 32.6% 42.7% 0.77× 3.06
Q2 under 50.5 30.5% 32.6% 21.9% 1.49× 3.06
Q2 over 59.5 33.9% 32.4% 38.1% 0.85× 3.09
Q2 under 51.5 30.3% 32.3% 25.8% 1.25× 3.10
Q2 over 60.5 25.5% 28.0% 34.3% 0.82× 3.57
Q2 over 61.5 25.8% 27.0% 29.6% 0.91× 3.71
Q2 under 47.5 19.4% 17.0% 12.8% 1.33× 5.88
Q2 over 63.5 15.6% 17.0% 22.5% 0.76× 5.89
Q2 under 48.5 19.4% 16.9% 15.3% 1.10× 5.93
Q2 over 64.5 15.9% 16.9% 19.1% 0.88× 5.93
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks to win Q3 61.1% 60.8% 50.9% 1.20× 1.64
Orlando Magic to win Q3 34.5% 33.8% 44.3% 0.76× 2.96
Q3 tied 4.5% 4.3% 4.9% 0.88× 23.43
Q3 total 32
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 under 63.5 83.5% 82.3% 75.9% 1.08× 1.22
Q3 over 47.5 82.3% 82.3% 88.1% 0.93× 1.22
Q3 under 64.5 83.2% 82.2% 79.2% 1.04× 1.22
Q3 over 48.5 82.4% 82.2% 85.6% 0.96× 1.22
Q3 under 61.5 72.8% 72.5% 67.7% 1.07× 1.38
Q3 over 51.5 71.8% 72.5% 76.1% 0.95× 1.38
Q3 under 60.5 73.2% 71.8% 63.5% 1.13× 1.39
Q3 over 50.5 71.6% 71.8% 79.7% 0.90× 1.39
Q3 under 59.5 64.4% 62.6% 59.0% 1.06× 1.60
Q3 over 53.5 63.3% 62.6% 68.3% 0.92× 1.60
Q3 under 58.5 64.8% 62.0% 54.8% 1.13× 1.61
Q3 over 52.5 63.1% 61.9% 72.2% 0.86× 1.61
Q3 under 56.5 55.6% 58.4% 45.0% 1.30× 1.71
Q3 under 57.5 55.3% 57.8% 49.8% 1.16× 1.73
Q3 over 54.5 53.8% 52.3% 63.9% 0.82× 1.91
Q3 under 55.5 50.9% 52.3% 40.1% 1.30× 1.91
Q3 over 55.5 49.1% 47.7% 59.9% 0.80× 2.10
Q3 under 54.5 46.2% 47.7% 36.1% 1.32× 2.10
Q3 over 57.5 44.7% 42.2% 50.2% 0.84× 2.37
Q3 over 56.5 44.4% 41.6% 55.0% 0.76× 2.40
Q3 under 52.5 36.9% 38.1% 27.8% 1.37× 2.63
Q3 over 58.5 35.2% 38.0% 45.2% 0.84× 2.63
Q3 under 53.5 36.7% 37.4% 31.7% 1.18× 2.67
Q3 over 59.5 35.6% 37.4% 41.0% 0.91× 2.67
Q3 under 50.5 28.4% 28.2% 20.3% 1.39× 3.55
Q3 over 60.5 26.8% 28.2% 36.5% 0.77× 3.55
Q3 under 51.5 28.2% 27.5% 23.9% 1.15× 3.64
Q3 over 61.5 27.2% 27.5% 32.3% 0.85× 3.64
Q3 under 48.5 17.6% 17.8% 14.4% 1.23× 5.62
Q3 over 64.5 16.8% 17.8% 20.8% 0.85× 5.63
Q3 under 47.5 17.7% 17.7% 11.9% 1.49× 5.66
Q3 over 63.5 16.5% 17.7% 24.1% 0.73× 5.66
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks to win Q4 60.8% 57.8% 48.3% 1.20× 1.73
Orlando Magic to win Q4 34.6% 37.4% 46.4% 0.81× 2.67
Q4 tied 4.6% 5.2% 5.3% 0.98× 19.29
Q4 total 32
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 over 44.5 82.7% 82.0% 87.3% 0.94× 1.22
Q4 under 60.5 81.7% 82.0% 74.2% 1.10× 1.22
Q4 over 45.5 82.6% 81.9% 84.6% 0.97× 1.22
Q4 under 61.5 81.5% 81.9% 77.5% 1.06× 1.22
Q4 over 48.5 72.4% 72.3% 75.5% 0.96× 1.38
Q4 under 58.5 71.0% 72.3% 66.2% 1.09× 1.38
Q4 over 47.5 72.4% 71.5% 79.0% 0.91× 1.40
Q4 under 57.5 71.1% 71.5% 61.9% 1.16× 1.40
Q4 over 50.5 64.2% 61.7% 68.5% 0.90× 1.62
Q4 under 56.5 62.7% 61.6% 57.2% 1.08× 1.62
Q4 over 49.5 64.3% 61.4% 72.3% 0.85× 1.63
Q4 under 55.5 62.8% 61.4% 52.9% 1.16× 1.63
Q4 over 51.5 55.4% 58.4% 64.7% 0.90× 1.71
Q4 under 53.5 53.8% 52.5% 44.3% 1.18× 1.91
Q4 over 52.5 50.8% 52.5% 60.4% 0.87× 1.91
Q4 under 54.5 53.7% 52.4% 48.6% 1.08× 1.91
Q4 over 54.5 46.3% 47.6% 51.4% 0.93× 2.10
Q4 under 52.5 49.2% 47.5% 39.6% 1.20× 2.11
Q4 over 53.5 46.2% 47.5% 55.7% 0.85× 2.11
Q4 under 51.5 44.6% 41.6% 35.3% 1.18× 2.40
Q4 over 55.5 37.2% 38.6% 47.1% 0.82× 2.59
Q4 under 49.5 35.7% 38.6% 27.7% 1.39× 2.59
Q4 over 56.5 37.3% 38.4% 42.8% 0.90× 2.61
Q4 under 50.5 35.8% 38.3% 31.5% 1.22× 2.61
Q4 over 57.5 28.9% 28.5% 38.1% 0.75× 3.51
Q4 under 47.5 27.6% 28.5% 21.0% 1.35× 3.51
Q4 over 58.5 29.0% 27.7% 33.8% 0.82× 3.61
Q4 under 48.5 27.6% 27.7% 24.5% 1.13× 3.61
Q4 over 61.5 18.5% 18.1% 22.5% 0.80× 5.53
Q4 under 45.5 17.4% 18.1% 15.4% 1.18× 5.53
Q4 over 60.5 18.3% 18.0% 25.8% 0.70× 5.56
Q4 under 44.5 17.3% 18.0% 12.7% 1.41× 5.56
Team total 72
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks over 104.5 80.6% 80.7% 79.8% 1.01× 1.24
Orlando Magic under 113.5 80.8% 80.7% 52.0% 1.55× 1.24
Orlando Magic over 93.5 80.1% 80.7% 94.0% 0.86× 1.24
New York Knicks under 125.5 80.5% 80.3% 79.1% 1.02× 1.25
Orlando Magic under 117.5 80.6% 80.3% 64.4% 1.25× 1.25
New York Knicks over 105.5 78.7% 78.3% 77.4% 1.01× 1.28
Orlando Magic over 97.5 78.7% 78.3% 89.3% 0.88× 1.28
New York Knicks under 124.5 79.8% 75.1% 76.8% 0.98× 1.33
New York Knicks under 122.5 73.0% 71.9% 71.8% 1.00× 1.39
Orlando Magic under 114.5 73.1% 71.9% 55.5% 1.29× 1.39
New York Knicks over 108.5 70.8% 71.8% 69.9% 1.03× 1.39
New York Knicks over 107.5 72.8% 70.7% 72.7% 0.97× 1.41
New York Knicks under 121.5 71.9% 70.7% 69.6% 1.02× 1.41
Orlando Magic over 96.5 72.1% 70.7% 90.8% 0.78× 1.41
Orlando Magic under 110.5 73.0% 70.7% 42.1% 1.68× 1.41
New York Knicks under 120.5 67.2% 66.6% 66.3% 1.00× 1.50
Orlando Magic under 112.5 67.3% 66.6% 48.5% 1.37× 1.50
Orlando Magic under 108.5 67.1% 66.4% 36.0% 1.84× 1.51
New York Knicks over 109.5 67.0% 66.4% 67.0% 0.99× 1.51
New York Knicks under 119.5 65.9% 66.4% 63.5% 1.05× 1.51
Orlando Magic over 98.5 66.1% 66.4% 87.6% 0.76× 1.51
New York Knicks over 111.5 60.6% 61.2% 61.1% 1.00× 1.63
Orlando Magic under 106.5 60.7% 61.2% 31.1% 1.97× 1.63
New York Knicks over 110.5 64.9% 61.2% 64.1% 0.95× 1.63
New York Knicks under 118.5 61.0% 61.2% 60.3% 1.01× 1.64
New York Knicks over 112.5 58.6% 57.9% 57.7% 1.00× 1.73
New York Knicks under 117.5 59.5% 57.1% 57.8% 0.99× 1.75
Orlando Magic over 100.5 59.6% 57.1% 84.1% 0.68× 1.75
New York Knicks over 113.5 54.0% 52.3% 54.3% 0.96× 1.91
Orlando Magic under 104.5 54.0% 52.3% 25.0% 2.09× 1.91
New York Knicks under 115.5 52.8% 52.3% 51.6% 1.01× 1.91
Orlando Magic over 102.5 52.8% 52.3% 79.7% 0.66× 1.91
Orlando Magic under 103.5 50.6% 52.3% 22.5% 2.32× 1.91
New York Knicks over 114.5 50.6% 52.3% 51.4% 1.02× 1.91
New York Knicks under 116.5 54.6% 52.2% 54.7% 0.95× 1.91
Orlando Magic under 107.5 51.4% 52.2% 33.4% 1.56× 1.91
Orlando Magic over 107.5 48.6% 47.8% 66.6% 0.72× 2.09
New York Knicks over 116.5 45.4% 47.8% 45.3% 1.05× 2.09
Orlando Magic over 103.5 49.4% 47.7% 77.5% 0.62× 2.09
New York Knicks under 114.5 49.4% 47.7% 48.6% 0.98× 2.09
New York Knicks over 115.5 47.2% 47.7% 48.4% 0.99× 2.09
Orlando Magic under 102.5 47.2% 47.7% 20.3% 2.35× 2.09
New York Knicks under 113.5 46.0% 47.7% 45.7% 1.04× 2.09
Orlando Magic over 104.5 46.0% 47.7% 75.0% 0.64× 2.09
New York Knicks over 117.5 40.5% 42.9% 42.2% 1.02× 2.33
Orlando Magic under 100.5 40.4% 42.9% 15.9% 2.70× 2.33
New York Knicks under 112.5 41.4% 42.1% 42.3% 0.99× 2.38
New York Knicks over 118.5 39.0% 38.8% 39.7% 0.98× 2.58
New York Knicks under 110.5 35.1% 38.8% 35.9% 1.08× 2.58
New York Knicks under 111.5 39.4% 38.8% 38.9% 1.00× 2.58
Orlando Magic over 106.5 39.3% 38.8% 68.9% 0.56× 2.58
New York Knicks under 109.5 33.0% 33.6% 33.0% 1.02× 2.98
New York Knicks over 119.5 34.1% 33.6% 36.5% 0.92× 2.98
Orlando Magic under 98.5 33.9% 33.6% 12.4% 2.72× 2.98
Orlando Magic over 108.5 32.9% 33.6% 64.0% 0.53× 2.98
New York Knicks over 120.5 32.8% 33.4% 33.7% 0.99× 3.00
Orlando Magic over 112.5 32.7% 33.4% 51.5% 0.65× 3.00
New York Knicks under 107.5 27.2% 29.3% 27.3% 1.07× 3.42
New York Knicks over 121.5 28.1% 29.3% 30.4% 0.96× 3.42
Orlando Magic under 96.5 27.9% 29.3% 9.2% 3.18× 3.42
Orlando Magic over 110.5 27.0% 29.3% 57.9% 0.51× 3.42
New York Knicks under 108.5 29.2% 28.2% 30.1% 0.93× 3.55
New York Knicks over 122.5 27.0% 28.1% 28.2% 1.00× 3.55
Orlando Magic over 114.5 26.9% 28.1% 44.5% 0.63× 3.55
New York Knicks over 124.5 20.2% 24.9% 23.2% 1.07× 4.02
New York Knicks under 105.5 21.3% 21.7% 22.6% 0.96× 4.60
Orlando Magic under 97.5 21.3% 21.7% 10.7% 2.02× 4.60
New York Knicks over 125.5 19.5% 19.7% 20.9% 0.94× 5.07
Orlando Magic over 117.5 19.4% 19.7% 35.6% 0.55× 5.07
Orlando Magic under 93.5 19.9% 19.3% 6.0% 3.20× 5.18
New York Knicks under 104.5 19.4% 19.3% 20.2% 0.95× 5.18
Orlando Magic over 113.5 19.2% 19.3% 48.0% 0.40× 5.18
Total points 48
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 242.5 points 86.0% 85.5% 76.8% 1.11× 1.17
Over 202.5 points 85.3% 85.5% 90.8% 0.94× 1.17
Under 238.5 points 86.7% 85.0% 70.9% 1.20× 1.18
Over 198.5 points 85.6% 85.0% 93.6% 0.91× 1.18
Under 233.5 points 80.0% 80.6% 61.4% 1.31× 1.24
Under 237.5 points 79.3% 78.1% 69.3% 1.13× 1.28
Over 207.5 points 78.3% 78.1% 85.5% 0.91× 1.28
Over 203.5 points 78.5% 75.6% 89.8% 0.84× 1.32
Under 232.5 points 70.8% 71.0% 59.4% 1.20× 1.41
Under 228.5 points 71.6% 70.8% 51.3% 1.38× 1.41
Over 212.5 points 69.7% 66.6% 77.8% 0.86× 1.50
Under 229.5 points 65.2% 66.6% 53.3% 1.25× 1.50
Over 208.5 points 69.7% 65.9% 84.1% 0.78× 1.52
Under 225.5 points 65.8% 65.9% 45.3% 1.45× 1.52
Under 227.5 points 61.1% 61.7% 49.4% 1.25× 1.62
Over 211.5 points 63.8% 61.5% 79.7% 0.77× 1.63
Under 223.5 points 61.8% 61.5% 41.7% 1.47× 1.63
Over 213.5 points 59.6% 56.5% 76.4% 0.74× 1.77
Under 221.5 points 57.6% 56.5% 37.8% 1.49× 1.77
Over 215.5 points 55.4% 56.5% 73.4% 0.77× 1.77
Under 219.5 points 53.3% 52.3% 33.9% 1.54× 1.91
Under 218.5 points 51.1% 52.3% 32.2% 1.62× 1.91
Over 217.5 points 51.1% 52.3% 69.6% 0.75× 1.91
Under 222.5 points 50.6% 52.2% 39.6% 1.32× 1.92
Over 222.5 points 49.4% 47.8% 60.4% 0.79× 2.09
Over 218.5 points 48.9% 47.7% 67.8% 0.70× 2.10
Under 217.5 points 48.9% 47.7% 30.4% 1.57× 2.10
Over 219.5 points 46.7% 47.7% 66.1% 0.72× 2.10
Under 215.5 points 44.6% 43.5% 26.6% 1.63× 2.30
Over 221.5 points 42.4% 43.5% 62.2% 0.70× 2.30
Under 213.5 points 40.4% 43.5% 23.6% 1.85× 2.30
Over 223.5 points 38.2% 38.5% 58.3% 0.66× 2.60
Under 211.5 points 36.2% 38.5% 20.3% 1.89× 2.60
Over 227.5 points 38.9% 38.3% 50.6% 0.76× 2.61
Over 225.5 points 34.2% 34.1% 54.7% 0.62× 2.93
Under 208.5 points 30.3% 34.1% 15.9% 2.14× 2.93
Over 229.5 points 34.8% 33.4% 46.7% 0.72× 2.99
Under 212.5 points 30.3% 33.4% 22.2% 1.50× 3.00
Over 228.5 points 28.4% 29.2% 48.7% 0.60× 3.43
Over 232.5 points 29.2% 29.0% 40.6% 0.71× 3.45
Under 203.5 points 21.5% 24.4% 10.2% 2.39× 4.10
Under 207.5 points 21.7% 21.9% 14.5% 1.51× 4.57
Over 237.5 points 20.7% 21.9% 30.7% 0.71× 4.57
Over 233.5 points 20.0% 19.4% 38.6% 0.50× 5.15
Under 198.5 points 14.4% 15.0% 6.4% 2.33× 6.68
Over 238.5 points 13.3% 15.0% 29.1% 0.51× 6.69
Under 202.5 points 14.7% 14.5% 9.2% 1.58× 6.88
Over 242.5 points 14.0% 14.5% 23.2% 0.63× 6.88
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks to win both halves 43.9% 40.7% 25.2% 1.61× 2.46
Orlando Magic to win both halves 6.9% 8.8% 17.8% 0.49× 11.32
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
New York Knicks by 26+ 16.3% 16.8% 6.2% 2.71× 5.97
New York Knicks by 6-10 13.7% 12.3% 13.9% 0.88× 8.11
New York Knicks by 11-15 13.9% 12.3% 10.8% 1.14× 8.11
New York Knicks by 1-5 12.0% 12.3% 12.8% 0.96× 8.11
New York Knicks by 16-20 12.5% 12.3% 7.3% 1.68× 8.11
New York Knicks by 21-25 10.0% 7.5% 4.7% 1.58× 13.40
Orlando Magic by 1-5 8.8% 7.5% 12.3% 0.61× 13.40
Orlando Magic by 6-10 5.9% 7.5% 12.3% 0.61× 13.40
Orlando Magic by 11-15 3.6% 2.0% 8.0% 0.25× 49.30
Orlando Magic by 16-20 1.9% 2.0% 4.9% 0.42× 49.31
Orlando Magic by 21-25 0.9% 2.0% 3.0% 0.67× 49.32
Orlando Magic by 26+ 0.6% 2.0% 3.9% 0.53× 49.32
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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