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North Carolina Tar Heels v Georgia Bulldogs — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 13 November 2026 · NCAAB · 2027

NCAAB results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
North Carolina Tar Heels win
60.7%
Draw
0.0%
Georgia Bulldogs win
39.3%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 84.29–81.48 84-81 0% 48% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
North Carolina Tar Heels to score 100+ 6.1% 8.8% 3.4% 2.55× 11.39
Georgia Bulldogs to score 100+ 3.0% 0.4% 1.1% 0.33× 282.77
North Carolina Tar Heels to score 110+ 0.5% 0.4% 0.7% 0.52× 283.26
North Carolina Tar Heels to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.87× 283.35
North Carolina Tar Heels to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 19.47× 283.36
Georgia Bulldogs to score 110+ 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 1.95× 283.32
Georgia Bulldogs to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 12.98× 283.36
Georgia Bulldogs to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 38.95× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.87× 283.23
H1 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
North Carolina Tar Heels to win H1 54.0% 51.9% 57.9% 0.90× 1.93
North Carolina Tar Heels to win H1 54.0% 51.9% 57.9% 0.90× 1.93
Georgia Bulldogs to win H1 41.5% 42.7% 38.2% 1.12× 2.34
Georgia Bulldogs to win H1 41.5% 42.7% 38.2% 1.12× 2.34
H1 tied 4.5% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.85
H1 tied 4.5% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.86
H1 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 90.5 87.2% 87.7% 97.0% 0.90× 1.14
H1 over 66.5 86.8% 87.7% 58.2% 1.51× 1.14
H1 under 86.5 78.4% 77.4% 94.0% 0.82× 1.29
H1 over 70.5 77.1% 77.4% 43.5% 1.78× 1.29
H1 under 86.5 77.7% 77.4% 94.0% 0.82× 1.29
H1 over 70.5 77.8% 77.4% 43.5% 1.78× 1.29
H1 under 83.5 68.4% 67.4% 90.3% 0.75× 1.48
H1 over 73.5 68.3% 67.4% 33.4% 2.02× 1.48
H1 under 83.5 69.0% 67.4% 90.3% 0.75× 1.48
H1 over 73.5 67.7% 67.4% 33.4% 2.02× 1.48
H1 under 81.5 61.5% 62.7% 87.2% 0.72× 1.59
H1 over 75.5 61.1% 62.7% 27.2% 2.30× 1.59
H1 under 81.5 61.8% 62.7% 87.2% 0.72× 1.59
H1 over 75.5 60.7% 62.7% 27.2% 2.30× 1.59
H1 under 79.5 54.1% 52.6% 83.1% 0.63× 1.90
H1 under 79.5 54.3% 52.6% 83.1% 0.63× 1.90
H1 over 77.5 53.4% 52.6% 21.7% 2.43× 1.90
H1 over 77.5 53.5% 52.6% 21.7% 2.43× 1.90
H1 under 78.5 50.4% 52.6% 80.7% 0.65× 1.90
H1 under 78.5 50.4% 52.6% 80.7% 0.65× 1.90
H1 over 78.5 49.6% 47.4% 19.3% 2.45× 2.11
H1 over 78.5 49.6% 47.4% 19.3% 2.45× 2.11
H1 under 77.5 46.6% 47.4% 78.3% 0.60× 2.11
H1 under 77.5 46.5% 47.4% 78.3% 0.60× 2.11
H1 over 79.5 45.9% 47.4% 16.9% 2.80× 2.11
H1 over 79.5 45.7% 47.4% 16.9% 2.80× 2.11
H1 under 75.5 39.3% 37.3% 72.8% 0.51× 2.68
H1 over 81.5 38.5% 37.3% 12.8% 2.92× 2.68
H1 under 75.5 38.9% 37.3% 72.8% 0.51× 2.68
H1 over 81.5 38.2% 37.3% 12.8% 2.92× 2.68
H1 under 73.5 32.3% 32.6% 66.6% 0.49× 3.07
H1 over 83.5 31.6% 32.6% 9.7% 3.35× 3.07
H1 under 73.5 31.7% 32.6% 66.6% 0.49× 3.07
H1 over 83.5 31.0% 32.6% 9.7% 3.35× 3.07
H1 under 70.5 22.9% 22.6% 56.5% 0.40× 4.43
H1 over 86.5 22.3% 22.6% 6.0% 3.75× 4.43
H1 under 70.5 22.2% 22.6% 56.5% 0.40× 4.43
H1 over 86.5 21.6% 22.6% 6.0% 3.75× 4.43
H1 under 66.5 13.2% 12.3% 41.8% 0.29× 8.14
H1 over 90.5 12.8% 12.3% 3.0% 4.11× 8.14
H2 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
North Carolina Tar Heels to win H2 54.6% 51.2% 57.5% 0.89× 1.95
North Carolina Tar Heels to win H2 54.6% 51.2% 56.9% 0.90× 1.95
Georgia Bulldogs to win H2 41.1% 43.5% 38.5% 1.13× 2.30
Georgia Bulldogs to win H2 41.1% 43.5% 38.9% 1.12× 2.30
H2 tied 4.3% 3.9% 4.1% 0.97× 25.35
H2 tied 4.3% 3.9% 4.2% 0.95× 25.35
H2 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 99.5 85.9% 85.2% 94.0% 0.91× 1.17
H2 over 75.5 85.4% 85.2% 56.4% 1.51× 1.17
H2 under 95.5 77.1% 75.8% 93.4% 0.81× 1.32
H2 over 79.5 75.8% 75.8% 43.8% 1.73× 1.32
H2 under 95.5 76.4% 75.8% 90.6% 0.84× 1.32
H2 over 79.5 76.4% 75.8% 40.3% 1.88× 1.32
H2 under 92.5 67.5% 66.4% 86.9% 0.76× 1.51
H2 over 82.5 67.2% 66.4% 31.1% 2.14× 1.51
H2 under 92.5 68.1% 66.4% 90.1% 0.74× 1.51
H2 over 82.5 66.7% 66.4% 34.7% 1.91× 1.51
H2 under 90.5 61.3% 61.6% 86.9% 0.71× 1.62
H2 over 84.5 60.1% 61.6% 29.5% 2.09× 1.62
H2 under 90.5 60.9% 61.6% 83.6% 0.74× 1.62
H2 over 84.5 60.3% 61.6% 25.9% 2.38× 1.62
H2 under 88.5 54.0% 52.4% 79.8% 0.66× 1.91
H2 under 88.5 54.1% 52.4% 83.3% 0.63× 1.91
H2 over 86.5 53.1% 52.4% 24.3% 2.16× 1.91
H2 over 86.5 53.1% 52.4% 20.7% 2.53× 1.91
H2 under 87.5 50.4% 52.4% 77.7% 0.67× 1.91
H2 under 87.5 50.5% 52.4% 81.2% 0.64× 1.91
H2 over 87.5 49.6% 47.6% 22.3% 2.13× 2.10
H2 over 87.5 49.5% 47.6% 18.8% 2.53× 2.10
H2 under 86.5 46.9% 47.6% 75.7% 0.63× 2.10
H2 under 86.5 46.9% 47.6% 79.3% 0.60× 2.10
H2 over 88.5 46.1% 47.6% 20.2% 2.36× 2.10
H2 over 88.5 45.9% 47.6% 16.7% 2.85× 2.10
H2 under 84.5 39.9% 38.4% 70.5% 0.54× 2.61
H2 over 90.5 39.1% 38.4% 16.4% 2.35× 2.61
H2 under 84.5 39.7% 38.4% 74.1% 0.52× 2.61
H2 over 90.5 38.7% 38.4% 13.1% 2.93× 2.61
H2 under 82.5 33.3% 33.6% 65.3% 0.51× 2.97
H2 over 92.5 32.5% 33.6% 13.1% 2.58× 2.97
H2 under 82.5 32.8% 33.6% 68.9% 0.49× 2.97
H2 over 92.5 31.9% 33.6% 9.9% 3.39× 2.97
H2 under 79.5 24.2% 24.2% 56.2% 0.43× 4.13
H2 over 95.5 23.6% 24.2% 9.4% 2.59× 4.13
H2 under 79.5 23.6% 24.2% 59.8% 0.41× 4.13
H2 over 95.5 22.9% 24.2% 6.6% 3.70× 4.13
H2 under 75.5 14.6% 14.8% 43.6% 0.34× 6.76
H2 over 99.5 14.1% 14.8% 6.0% 2.48× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
North Carolina Tar Heels leading at half time 54.0% 51.9% 57.9% 0.90× 1.93
Georgia Bulldogs leading at half time 41.5% 42.8% 38.2% 1.12× 2.34
Level at half time 4.5% 3.8% 3.9% 0.97× 26.40
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
North Carolina Tar Heels +16.5 96.3% 97.4% 94.0% 1.04× 1.03
North Carolina Tar Heels +18.5 97.6% 97.4% 95.4% 1.02× 1.03
North Carolina Tar Heels +20.5 98.5% 97.4% 96.5% 1.01× 1.03
North Carolina Tar Heels +14.5 94.5% 91.1% 92.2% 0.99× 1.10
Georgia Bulldogs +20.5 94.9% 91.1% 86.5% 1.05× 1.10
Georgia Bulldogs +18.5 92.6% 91.1% 83.9% 1.09× 1.10
North Carolina Tar Heels +12.5 92.0% 91.1% 89.9% 1.01× 1.10
North Carolina Tar Heels +10.5 88.9% 85.9% 87.2% 0.99× 1.16
Georgia Bulldogs +16.5 89.5% 85.9% 80.7% 1.06× 1.16
North Carolina Tar Heels +9.5 87.0% 85.9% 85.3% 1.01× 1.16
Georgia Bulldogs +14.5 85.7% 85.9% 77.2% 1.11× 1.16
North Carolina Tar Heels +8.5 84.9% 81.1% 83.3% 0.97× 1.23
North Carolina Tar Heels +7.5 82.5% 81.1% 81.0% 1.00× 1.23
Georgia Bulldogs +12.5 81.0% 81.1% 72.4% 1.12× 1.23
North Carolina Tar Heels +6.5 80.0% 76.5% 78.8% 0.97× 1.31
North Carolina Tar Heels +5.5 77.2% 76.5% 76.4% 1.00× 1.31
Georgia Bulldogs +10.5 75.5% 76.5% 67.4% 1.14× 1.31
North Carolina Tar Heels +4.5 74.3% 71.6% 73.7% 0.97× 1.40
Georgia Bulldogs +9.5 72.4% 71.6% 64.5% 1.11× 1.40
North Carolina Tar Heels +3.5 71.1% 71.6% 70.8% 1.01× 1.40
Georgia Bulldogs +8.5 69.1% 66.7% 61.5% 1.08× 1.50
North Carolina Tar Heels +2.5 67.8% 66.7% 68.0% 0.98× 1.50
Georgia Bulldogs +7.5 65.7% 66.7% 58.7% 1.14× 1.50
North Carolina Tar Heels +1.5 64.3% 61.9% 65.4% 0.95× 1.62
Georgia Bulldogs +6.5 62.1% 61.9% 55.7% 1.11× 1.62
Georgia Bulldogs +5.5 58.4% 57.1% 53.0% 1.08× 1.75
North Carolina Tar Heels −1.5 56.9% 57.1% 60.8% 0.94× 1.75
Georgia Bulldogs +4.5 54.6% 52.4% 49.3% 1.06× 1.91
North Carolina Tar Heels −2.5 53.0% 52.4% 57.7% 0.91× 1.91
Georgia Bulldogs +3.5 50.8% 52.4% 45.9% 1.14× 1.91
North Carolina Tar Heels −3.5 49.2% 47.6% 54.1% 0.88× 2.10
Georgia Bulldogs +2.5 47.0% 47.6% 42.3% 1.12× 2.10
North Carolina Tar Heels −4.5 45.4% 47.6% 50.7% 0.94× 2.10
Georgia Bulldogs +1.5 43.1% 42.9% 39.2% 1.10× 2.33
North Carolina Tar Heels −5.5 41.6% 42.9% 47.0% 0.91× 2.33
North Carolina Tar Heels −6.5 37.9% 38.1% 44.3% 0.86× 2.63
Georgia Bulldogs −1.5 35.7% 38.1% 34.6% 1.10× 2.63
North Carolina Tar Heels −7.5 34.3% 33.3% 41.3% 0.80× 3.01
Georgia Bulldogs −2.5 32.2% 33.3% 32.0% 1.04× 3.01
North Carolina Tar Heels −8.5 30.9% 33.3% 38.5% 0.86× 3.01
Georgia Bulldogs −3.5 28.9% 28.4% 29.3% 0.97× 3.53
North Carolina Tar Heels −9.5 27.6% 28.4% 35.5% 0.80× 3.53
Georgia Bulldogs −4.5 25.7% 28.4% 26.3% 1.08× 3.53
North Carolina Tar Heels −10.5 24.5% 23.5% 32.6% 0.72× 4.25
Georgia Bulldogs −5.5 22.8% 23.5% 23.6% 1.00× 4.25
Georgia Bulldogs −6.5 20.0% 23.5% 21.2% 1.11× 4.25
North Carolina Tar Heels −12.5 19.0% 18.9% 27.6% 0.68× 5.29
Georgia Bulldogs −7.5 17.5% 18.9% 19.0% 0.99× 5.29
Georgia Bulldogs −8.5 15.1% 18.9% 16.7% 1.13× 5.30
North Carolina Tar Heels −14.5 14.3% 14.1% 22.8% 0.62× 7.09
Georgia Bulldogs −9.5 13.0% 14.1% 14.7% 0.96× 7.09
Georgia Bulldogs −10.5 11.1% 14.1% 12.8% 1.10× 7.09
North Carolina Tar Heels −16.5 10.5% 14.1% 19.3% 0.73× 7.09
Georgia Bulldogs −12.5 8.0% 8.9% 10.1% 0.88× 11.25
North Carolina Tar Heels −18.5 7.4% 8.9% 16.1% 0.55× 11.25
Georgia Bulldogs −14.5 5.5% 8.9% 7.8% 1.14× 11.25
North Carolina Tar Heels −20.5 5.1% 8.9% 13.5% 0.66× 11.25
Georgia Bulldogs −16.5 3.7% 2.6% 6.0% 0.43× 38.73
Georgia Bulldogs −18.5 2.4% 2.6% 4.6% 0.57× 38.73
Georgia Bulldogs −20.5 1.5% 2.6% 3.5% 0.75× 38.73
Highest scoring half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 highest scoring 81.9% 71.5% 70.4% 1.02× 1.40
2nd half highest scoring 80.3% 71.5% 72.5% 0.99× 1.40
1st half highest scoring 19.7% 28.5% 27.5% 1.04× 3.51
H1 highest scoring 18.1% 28.5% 29.6% 0.96× 3.51
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
North Carolina Tar Heels at HT / North Carolina Tar Heels at FT 42.7% 41.0% 48.6% 0.84× 2.44
Georgia Bulldogs at HT / Georgia Bulldogs at FT 26.1% 29.6% 25.8% 1.14× 3.38
Georgia Bulldogs at HT / North Carolina Tar Heels at FT 15.4% 15.4% 12.4% 1.25× 6.47
North Carolina Tar Heels at HT / Georgia Bulldogs at FT 11.3% 12.2% 9.3% 1.31× 8.18
Level at HT / North Carolina Tar Heels at FT 2.6% 2.1% 2.3% 0.92× 47.75
Level at HT / Georgia Bulldogs at FT 1.9% 2.1% 1.6% 1.28× 47.76
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
North Carolina Tar Heels to win 60.7% 60.6% 63.2% 0.96× 1.65
Georgia Bulldogs to win 39.3% 39.4% 36.8% 1.07× 2.54
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Total points odd 51.9% 50.5% 51.6% 0.98× 1.98
North Carolina Tar Heels even 50.0% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
Georgia Bulldogs even 50.0% 50.5% 50.4% 1.00× 1.98
North Carolina Tar Heels odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
Georgia Bulldogs odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.6% 1.00× 2.02
Total points even 48.1% 49.5% 48.4% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 92.2% 94.0% 94.2% 1.00× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 7.8% 6.0% 5.8% 1.04× 16.64
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Georgia Bulldogs under 91.5 85.3% 83.9% 95.3% 0.88× 1.19
North Carolina Tar Heels under 94.5 85.0% 80.7% 93.1% 0.87× 1.24
Georgia Bulldogs over 71.5 85.0% 80.7% 48.2% 1.68× 1.24
North Carolina Tar Heels over 74.5 84.2% 80.7% 54.1% 1.49× 1.24
North Carolina Tar Heels under 91.5 76.7% 75.1% 89.7% 0.84× 1.33
Georgia Bulldogs over 74.5 76.5% 75.1% 38.3% 1.96× 1.33
Georgia Bulldogs under 88.5 76.9% 75.1% 92.6% 0.81× 1.33
North Carolina Tar Heels over 77.5 75.7% 75.1% 44.6% 1.68× 1.33
North Carolina Tar Heels under 89.5 70.0% 70.7% 86.5% 0.82× 1.41
Georgia Bulldogs under 86.5 70.1% 70.7% 90.2% 0.78× 1.41
North Carolina Tar Heels over 79.5 69.0% 66.4% 38.4% 1.73× 1.51
Georgia Bulldogs over 76.5 69.6% 66.4% 32.1% 2.07× 1.51
North Carolina Tar Heels under 87.5 62.6% 61.2% 82.8% 0.74× 1.63
Georgia Bulldogs under 84.5 62.6% 61.2% 87.2% 0.70× 1.63
North Carolina Tar Heels over 81.5 61.4% 61.2% 32.1% 1.91× 1.63
Georgia Bulldogs over 78.5 62.0% 61.2% 26.3% 2.33× 1.63
North Carolina Tar Heels under 85.5 54.6% 52.3% 78.6% 0.67× 1.91
Georgia Bulldogs over 80.5 53.8% 52.3% 21.2% 2.46× 1.91
Georgia Bulldogs under 82.5 54.5% 52.3% 83.3% 0.63× 1.91
North Carolina Tar Heels over 83.5 53.5% 52.3% 26.5% 1.97× 1.91
North Carolina Tar Heels under 84.5 50.6% 52.3% 76.1% 0.69× 1.91
Georgia Bulldogs under 81.5 50.3% 52.3% 81.2% 0.64× 1.91
North Carolina Tar Heels over 84.5 49.4% 47.7% 23.9% 2.00× 2.09
Georgia Bulldogs over 81.5 49.7% 47.7% 18.8% 2.54× 2.09
North Carolina Tar Heels under 83.5 46.5% 47.7% 73.5% 0.65× 2.09
North Carolina Tar Heels over 85.5 45.4% 47.7% 21.4% 2.23× 2.09
Georgia Bulldogs under 80.5 46.2% 47.7% 78.8% 0.61× 2.09
Georgia Bulldogs over 82.5 45.5% 47.7% 16.7% 2.85× 2.09
North Carolina Tar Heels under 81.5 38.6% 38.8% 67.9% 0.57× 2.58
Georgia Bulldogs under 78.5 38.0% 38.8% 73.7% 0.53× 2.58
North Carolina Tar Heels over 87.5 37.4% 38.8% 17.2% 2.26× 2.58
Georgia Bulldogs over 84.5 37.4% 38.8% 12.8% 3.03× 2.58
North Carolina Tar Heels under 79.5 31.0% 33.6% 61.6% 0.55× 2.98
Georgia Bulldogs under 76.5 30.4% 33.6% 67.9% 0.49× 2.98
North Carolina Tar Heels over 89.5 30.0% 29.3% 13.5% 2.17× 3.42
Georgia Bulldogs over 86.5 29.9% 29.3% 9.8% 2.99× 3.42
North Carolina Tar Heels under 77.5 24.3% 24.9% 55.4% 0.45× 4.02
North Carolina Tar Heels over 91.5 23.3% 24.9% 10.3% 2.41× 4.02
Georgia Bulldogs under 74.5 23.5% 24.9% 61.7% 0.40× 4.02
Georgia Bulldogs over 88.5 23.1% 24.9% 7.4% 3.34× 4.02
North Carolina Tar Heels under 74.5 15.8% 19.3% 45.9% 0.42× 5.18
North Carolina Tar Heels over 94.5 15.0% 19.3% 6.9% 2.81× 5.18
Georgia Bulldogs under 71.5 15.0% 19.3% 51.8% 0.37× 5.18
Georgia Bulldogs over 91.5 14.7% 16.1% 4.7% 3.40× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 186.5 points 90.2% 88.8% 97.4% 0.91× 1.13
Over 146.5 points 88.6% 85.0% 49.8% 1.71× 1.18
Under 181.5 points 83.7% 80.6% 95.8% 0.84× 1.24
Over 151.5 points 81.3% 80.6% 39.4% 2.04× 1.24
Under 176.5 points 74.8% 70.8% 93.1% 0.76× 1.41
Over 156.5 points 71.9% 70.8% 30.2% 2.35× 1.41
Under 173.5 points 68.5% 65.9% 91.2% 0.72× 1.52
Over 159.5 points 65.2% 65.9% 25.0% 2.64× 1.52
Under 171.5 points 64.0% 61.5% 89.7% 0.69× 1.63
Over 161.5 points 60.5% 61.5% 22.1% 2.79× 1.63
Under 169.5 points 59.2% 56.5% 87.7% 0.64× 1.77
Over 163.5 points 55.6% 56.5% 19.1% 2.96× 1.77
Under 167.5 points 54.3% 52.3% 85.6% 0.61× 1.91
Under 166.5 points 51.8% 52.3% 84.3% 0.62× 1.91
Over 165.5 points 50.6% 52.3% 16.6% 3.15× 1.91
Under 165.5 points 49.4% 47.7% 83.4% 0.57× 2.10
Over 166.5 points 48.2% 47.7% 15.7% 3.03× 2.10
Over 167.5 points 45.7% 47.7% 14.4% 3.32× 2.10
Under 163.5 points 44.4% 43.5% 80.9% 0.54× 2.30
Over 169.5 points 40.8% 43.5% 12.3% 3.54× 2.30
Under 161.5 points 39.5% 38.5% 77.9% 0.49× 2.60
Over 171.5 points 36.0% 38.5% 10.3% 3.73× 2.60
Under 159.5 points 34.8% 34.1% 75.0% 0.45× 2.93
Over 173.5 points 31.5% 34.1% 8.8% 3.87× 2.93
Under 156.5 points 28.1% 29.2% 69.8% 0.42× 3.43
Over 176.5 points 25.2% 29.2% 7.0% 4.20× 3.43
Under 151.5 points 18.7% 19.4% 60.6% 0.32× 5.15
Over 181.5 points 16.3% 19.4% 4.2% 4.66× 5.15
Under 146.5 points 11.4% 15.0% 50.2% 0.30× 6.69
Over 186.5 points 9.8% 11.2% 2.6% 4.26× 8.96
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
North Carolina Tar Heels to win both halves 25.8% 27.2% 33.2% 0.82× 3.68
Georgia Bulldogs to win both halves 13.6% 14.1% 14.5% 0.97× 7.12
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
North Carolina Tar Heels by 1-5 19.1% 16.8% 16.2% 1.03× 5.97
Georgia Bulldogs by 1-5 16.6% 16.8% 13.2% 1.27× 5.97
North Carolina Tar Heels by 6-10 17.0% 16.8% 14.4% 1.16× 5.97
North Carolina Tar Heels by 11-15 12.3% 12.3% 11.6% 1.07× 8.11
Georgia Bulldogs by 6-10 11.6% 12.3% 10.8% 1.14× 8.11
North Carolina Tar Heels by 16-20 7.1% 7.5% 7.6% 0.98× 13.40
Georgia Bulldogs by 11-15 6.6% 7.5% 6.1% 1.23× 13.40
Georgia Bulldogs by 16-20 3.0% 2.0% 3.3% 0.61× 49.30
North Carolina Tar Heels by 21-25 3.4% 2.0% 5.6% 0.36× 49.30
Georgia Bulldogs by 21-25 1.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.06× 49.32
North Carolina Tar Heels by 26+ 1.8% 2.0% 7.9% 0.26× 49.31
Georgia Bulldogs by 26+ 0.4% 2.0% 1.6% 1.30× 49.32
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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