North Carolina Tar Heels v Marshall Thundering Herd — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 20 November 2026 · NCAAB · 2027
NCAAB results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.North Carolina Tar Heels win
95.0%
Draw
0.0%
Marshall Thundering Herd win
5.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nba-normal | 88.74–71.54 | 89-72 0% | 49% | 0% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
Century marks 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Tar Heels to score 100+ | 13.6% | 13.8% | 3.4% | 4.02× | 7.23 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels to score 110+ | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.52× | 283.03 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels to score 120+ | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 4.87× | 283.34 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels to score 130+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 19.47× | 283.36 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd to score 100+ | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.33× | 283.32 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd to score 110+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 1.95× | 283.36 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd to score 120+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 12.98× | 283.36 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd to score 130+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 38.95× | 283.36 |
| Both sides to score 100+ | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.87× | 283.34 |
H1 result 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Tar Heels to win H1 | 81.4% | 83.6% | 57.9% | 1.44× | 1.20 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels to win H1 | 81.3% | 83.6% | 57.9% | 1.44× | 1.20 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd to win H1 | 15.7% | 16.9% | 38.2% | 0.44× | 5.93 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd to win H1 | 15.7% | 16.9% | 38.2% | 0.44× | 5.93 |
| H1 tied | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 0.99× | 25.87 |
| H1 tied | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 0.99× | 25.87 |
H1 total 40
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 under 88.5 | 88.4% | 87.7% | 95.6% | 0.92× | 1.14 |
| H1 over 64.5 | 85.6% | 87.7% | 65.3% | 1.34× | 1.14 |
| H1 under 84.5 | 80.1% | 82.5% | 91.7% | 0.90× | 1.21 |
| H1 under 84.5 | 79.3% | 77.4% | 91.7% | 0.84× | 1.29 |
| H1 over 68.5 | 76.1% | 77.4% | 50.7% | 1.53× | 1.29 |
| H1 over 68.5 | 75.4% | 77.4% | 50.7% | 1.53× | 1.29 |
| H1 under 81.5 | 71.0% | 73.5% | 87.2% | 0.84× | 1.36 |
| H1 under 81.5 | 70.4% | 73.5% | 87.2% | 0.84× | 1.36 |
| H1 over 71.5 | 66.2% | 67.4% | 40.0% | 1.69× | 1.48 |
| H1 over 71.5 | 65.7% | 67.4% | 40.0% | 1.69× | 1.48 |
| H1 under 79.5 | 64.0% | 62.7% | 83.1% | 0.75× | 1.59 |
| H1 under 79.5 | 63.6% | 62.7% | 83.1% | 0.75× | 1.59 |
| H1 over 73.5 | 58.8% | 58.2% | 33.4% | 1.74× | 1.72 |
| H1 over 73.5 | 58.6% | 58.2% | 33.4% | 1.74× | 1.72 |
| H1 under 77.5 | 56.5% | 58.2% | 78.3% | 0.74× | 1.72 |
| H1 under 77.5 | 56.3% | 58.2% | 78.3% | 0.74× | 1.72 |
| H1 under 76.5 | 52.7% | 52.6% | 75.5% | 0.70× | 1.90 |
| H1 under 76.5 | 52.6% | 52.6% | 75.5% | 0.70× | 1.90 |
| H1 over 75.5 | 51.2% | 52.6% | 27.2% | 1.93× | 1.90 |
| H1 over 75.5 | 51.1% | 52.6% | 27.2% | 1.93× | 1.90 |
| H1 under 75.5 | 48.8% | 47.4% | 72.8% | 0.65× | 2.11 |
| H1 under 75.5 | 48.9% | 47.4% | 72.8% | 0.65× | 2.11 |
| H1 over 76.5 | 47.3% | 47.4% | 24.5% | 1.94× | 2.11 |
| H1 over 76.5 | 47.4% | 47.4% | 24.5% | 1.94× | 2.11 |
| H1 over 77.5 | 43.5% | 41.8% | 21.7% | 1.93× | 2.39 |
| H1 over 77.5 | 43.7% | 41.8% | 21.7% | 1.93× | 2.39 |
| H1 under 73.5 | 41.4% | 41.8% | 66.6% | 0.63× | 2.39 |
| H1 under 73.5 | 41.2% | 41.8% | 66.6% | 0.63× | 2.39 |
| H1 over 79.5 | 36.0% | 37.3% | 16.9% | 2.21× | 2.68 |
| H1 over 79.5 | 36.4% | 37.3% | 16.9% | 2.21× | 2.68 |
| H1 under 71.5 | 33.8% | 32.6% | 60.0% | 0.54× | 3.07 |
| H1 under 71.5 | 34.3% | 32.6% | 60.0% | 0.54× | 3.07 |
| H1 over 81.5 | 29.6% | 26.5% | 12.8% | 2.08× | 3.77 |
| H1 over 81.5 | 29.0% | 26.5% | 12.8% | 2.08× | 3.77 |
| H1 under 68.5 | 24.6% | 22.6% | 49.3% | 0.46× | 4.43 |
| H1 under 68.5 | 23.9% | 22.6% | 49.3% | 0.46× | 4.43 |
| H1 over 84.5 | 20.7% | 22.6% | 8.3% | 2.72× | 4.43 |
| H1 over 84.5 | 19.9% | 17.5% | 8.3% | 2.11× | 5.72 |
| H1 under 64.5 | 14.4% | 12.3% | 34.8% | 0.35× | 8.13 |
| H1 over 88.5 | 11.6% | 12.3% | 4.4% | 2.81× | 8.14 |
H2 result 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Tar Heels to win H2 | 83.2% | 79.5% | 56.9% | 1.40× | 1.26 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels to win H2 | 83.2% | 79.5% | 57.5% | 1.38× | 1.26 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd to win H2 | 14.2% | 14.8% | 38.5% | 0.38× | 6.76 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd to win H2 | 14.1% | 14.8% | 38.9% | 0.38× | 6.76 |
| H2 tied | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 0.95× | 25.37 |
| H2 tied | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 0.97× | 25.37 |
H2 total 40
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H2 over 72.5 | 85.6% | 85.2% | 65.9% | 1.29× | 1.17 |
| H2 under 96.5 | 85.7% | 85.2% | 91.4% | 0.93× | 1.17 |
| H2 over 76.5 | 76.7% | 75.8% | 50.3% | 1.51× | 1.32 |
| H2 under 92.5 | 76.8% | 75.8% | 90.1% | 0.84× | 1.32 |
| H2 over 76.5 | 76.1% | 75.8% | 53.4% | 1.42× | 1.32 |
| H2 under 92.5 | 76.1% | 75.8% | 86.9% | 0.87× | 1.32 |
| H2 over 79.5 | 67.5% | 66.4% | 40.3% | 1.65× | 1.51 |
| H2 under 89.5 | 67.7% | 66.4% | 85.1% | 0.78× | 1.51 |
| H2 over 79.5 | 67.1% | 66.4% | 43.8% | 1.51× | 1.51 |
| H2 under 89.5 | 67.2% | 66.4% | 81.8% | 0.81× | 1.51 |
| H2 over 81.5 | 60.7% | 61.6% | 34.2% | 1.80× | 1.62 |
| H2 under 87.5 | 60.9% | 61.6% | 81.2% | 0.76× | 1.62 |
| H2 over 81.5 | 60.5% | 61.6% | 37.8% | 1.63× | 1.62 |
| H2 under 87.5 | 60.5% | 61.6% | 77.7% | 0.79× | 1.62 |
| H2 over 83.5 | 53.6% | 52.4% | 28.4% | 1.84× | 1.91 |
| H2 under 85.5 | 53.7% | 52.4% | 76.8% | 0.68× | 1.91 |
| H2 over 83.5 | 53.5% | 52.4% | 32.0% | 1.64× | 1.91 |
| H2 under 85.5 | 53.6% | 52.4% | 73.3% | 0.71× | 1.91 |
| H2 under 84.5 | 50.1% | 52.4% | 74.1% | 0.71× | 1.91 |
| H2 under 84.5 | 50.0% | 52.4% | 70.5% | 0.74× | 1.91 |
| H2 over 84.5 | 49.9% | 47.6% | 25.9% | 1.84× | 2.10 |
| H2 over 84.5 | 50.0% | 47.6% | 29.5% | 1.62× | 2.10 |
| H2 under 83.5 | 46.4% | 47.6% | 71.6% | 0.67× | 2.10 |
| H2 over 85.5 | 46.3% | 47.6% | 23.2% | 2.06× | 2.10 |
| H2 under 83.5 | 46.5% | 47.6% | 68.0% | 0.70× | 2.10 |
| H2 over 85.5 | 46.4% | 47.6% | 26.7% | 1.78× | 2.10 |
| H2 under 81.5 | 39.3% | 38.4% | 65.8% | 0.58× | 2.61 |
| H2 over 87.5 | 39.1% | 38.4% | 18.8% | 2.04× | 2.61 |
| H2 under 81.5 | 39.5% | 38.4% | 62.2% | 0.62× | 2.61 |
| H2 over 87.5 | 39.5% | 38.4% | 22.3% | 1.72× | 2.61 |
| H2 under 79.5 | 32.5% | 33.6% | 59.8% | 0.56× | 2.97 |
| H2 over 89.5 | 32.3% | 33.6% | 14.9% | 2.26× | 2.97 |
| H2 under 79.5 | 32.9% | 33.6% | 56.2% | 0.60× | 2.97 |
| H2 over 89.5 | 32.8% | 33.6% | 18.2% | 1.84× | 2.97 |
| H2 under 76.5 | 23.9% | 24.2% | 46.6% | 0.52× | 4.13 |
| H2 over 92.5 | 23.9% | 24.2% | 13.1% | 1.85× | 4.13 |
| H2 under 76.5 | 23.3% | 24.2% | 49.7% | 0.49× | 4.13 |
| H2 over 92.5 | 23.2% | 24.2% | 9.9% | 2.44× | 4.13 |
| H2 under 72.5 | 14.4% | 14.8% | 34.1% | 0.43× | 6.76 |
| H2 over 96.5 | 14.3% | 14.8% | 8.6% | 1.72× | 6.76 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Tar Heels leading at half time | 81.3% | 83.3% | 57.9% | 1.44× | 1.20 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd leading at half time | 15.7% | 17.0% | 38.2% | 0.44× | 5.89 |
| Level at half time | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 0.97× | 26.42 |
Handicap 60
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Tar Heels +9.5 | 99.4% | 97.4% | 85.3% | 1.14× | 1.03 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels +10.5 | 99.5% | 97.4% | 87.2% | 1.12× | 1.03 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels +12.5 | 99.7% | 97.4% | 89.9% | 1.08× | 1.03 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels +14.5 | 99.8% | 97.4% | 92.2% | 1.06× | 1.03 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels +16.5 | 99.9% | 97.4% | 94.0% | 1.04× | 1.03 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels +18.5 | 100.0% | 97.4% | 95.4% | 1.02× | 1.03 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels +20.5 | 100.0% | 97.4% | 96.5% | 1.01× | 1.03 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels +4.5 | 97.8% | 97.4% | 73.7% | 1.32× | 1.03 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels +5.5 | 98.3% | 97.4% | 76.4% | 1.28× | 1.03 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels +6.5 | 98.6% | 97.4% | 78.8% | 1.24× | 1.03 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels +7.5 | 98.9% | 97.4% | 81.0% | 1.20× | 1.03 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels +8.5 | 99.2% | 97.4% | 83.3% | 1.17× | 1.03 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels +1.5 | 95.9% | 97.4% | 65.4% | 1.49× | 1.03 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels +2.5 | 96.6% | 97.4% | 68.0% | 1.43× | 1.03 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels +3.5 | 97.3% | 97.4% | 70.8% | 1.38× | 1.03 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels −1.5 | 93.8% | 91.1% | 60.8% | 1.50× | 1.10 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels −2.5 | 92.4% | 91.1% | 57.7% | 1.58× | 1.10 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels −3.5 | 90.8% | 91.1% | 54.1% | 1.68× | 1.10 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels −4.5 | 89.1% | 85.9% | 50.7% | 1.70× | 1.16 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels −5.5 | 87.1% | 85.9% | 47.0% | 1.83× | 1.16 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels −6.5 | 84.9% | 81.1% | 44.3% | 1.83× | 1.23 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels −7.5 | 82.5% | 81.1% | 41.3% | 1.96× | 1.23 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels −8.5 | 79.9% | 76.5% | 38.5% | 1.99× | 1.31 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels −9.5 | 77.1% | 76.5% | 35.5% | 2.16× | 1.31 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels −10.5 | 74.1% | 71.6% | 32.6% | 2.20× | 1.40 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels −12.5 | 67.6% | 66.7% | 27.6% | 2.42× | 1.50 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd +20.5 | 61.7% | 61.9% | 86.5% | 0.72× | 1.62 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels −14.5 | 60.5% | 61.9% | 22.8% | 2.71× | 1.62 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd +18.5 | 54.4% | 52.4% | 83.9% | 0.62× | 1.91 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels −16.5 | 53.1% | 52.4% | 19.3% | 2.72× | 1.91 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd +16.5 | 46.9% | 47.6% | 80.7% | 0.59× | 2.10 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels −18.5 | 45.6% | 47.6% | 16.1% | 2.95× | 2.10 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd +14.5 | 39.5% | 38.1% | 77.2% | 0.49× | 2.63 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels −20.5 | 38.3% | 38.1% | 13.5% | 2.83× | 2.63 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd +12.5 | 32.4% | 33.3% | 72.4% | 0.46× | 3.01 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd +10.5 | 25.9% | 28.4% | 67.4% | 0.42× | 3.53 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd +9.5 | 22.9% | 23.5% | 64.5% | 0.36× | 4.25 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd +8.5 | 20.1% | 23.5% | 61.5% | 0.38× | 4.25 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd +7.5 | 17.5% | 18.9% | 58.7% | 0.32× | 5.29 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd +6.5 | 15.1% | 18.9% | 55.7% | 0.34× | 5.30 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd +5.5 | 12.9% | 14.1% | 53.0% | 0.27× | 7.09 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd +4.5 | 10.9% | 14.1% | 49.3% | 0.29× | 7.09 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd +3.5 | 9.2% | 8.9% | 45.9% | 0.19× | 11.25 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd +1.5 | 6.2% | 8.9% | 39.2% | 0.23× | 11.25 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd +2.5 | 7.6% | 8.9% | 42.3% | 0.21× | 11.25 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd −4.5 | 2.2% | 2.6% | 26.3% | 0.10× | 38.73 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd −5.5 | 1.7% | 2.6% | 23.6% | 0.11× | 38.73 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd −6.5 | 1.4% | 2.6% | 21.2% | 0.12× | 38.73 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd −7.5 | 1.1% | 2.6% | 19.0% | 0.14× | 38.74 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd −8.5 | 0.8% | 2.6% | 16.7% | 0.16× | 38.74 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd −1.5 | 4.1% | 2.6% | 34.6% | 0.07× | 38.72 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd −2.5 | 3.4% | 2.6% | 32.0% | 0.08× | 38.73 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd −3.5 | 2.7% | 2.6% | 29.3% | 0.09× | 38.73 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd −9.5 | 0.6% | 2.6% | 14.7% | 0.18× | 38.74 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd −10.5 | 0.5% | 2.6% | 12.8% | 0.20× | 38.74 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd −12.5 | 0.3% | 2.6% | 10.1% | 0.26× | 38.74 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd −14.5 | 0.2% | 2.6% | 7.8% | 0.33× | 38.74 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd −16.5 | 0.1% | 2.6% | 6.0% | 0.43× | 38.74 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd −18.5 | 0.0% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 0.57× | 38.74 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd −20.5 | 0.0% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 0.75× | 38.74 |
Highest scoring half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 79.5% | 71.6% | 72.5% | 0.99× | 1.40 |
| H2 highest scoring | 81.1% | 71.5% | 70.4% | 1.02× | 1.40 |
| H1 highest scoring | 18.9% | 28.5% | 29.6% | 0.96× | 3.51 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 20.5% | 28.4% | 27.5% | 1.03× | 3.53 |
HT/FT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Tar Heels at HT / North Carolina Tar Heels at FT | 79.6% | 78.1% | 48.6% | 1.61× | 1.28 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd at HT / North Carolina Tar Heels at FT | 12.7% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 0.99× | 8.17 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd at HT / Marshall Thundering Herd at FT | 3.0% | 2.1% | 25.8% | 0.08× | 47.74 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels at HT / Marshall Thundering Herd at FT | 1.7% | 2.1% | 9.3% | 0.22× | 47.76 |
| Level at HT / North Carolina Tar Heels at FT | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 0.92× | 47.75 |
| Level at HT / Marshall Thundering Herd at FT | 0.3% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.28× | 47.79 |
Moneyline 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Tar Heels to win | 95.0% | 90.7% | 63.2% | 1.43× | 1.10 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd to win | 5.0% | 9.3% | 36.8% | 0.25× | 10.71 |
Odd/Even 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Tar Heels even | 50.0% | 50.5% | 50.1% | 1.01× | 1.98 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd even | 50.0% | 50.5% | 50.4% | 1.00× | 1.98 |
| Total points odd | 50.5% | 50.5% | 51.6% | 0.98× | 1.98 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels odd | 50.0% | 49.5% | 49.9% | 0.99× | 2.02 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd odd | 50.0% | 49.5% | 49.6% | 1.00× | 2.02 |
| Total points even | 49.5% | 49.5% | 48.4% | 1.02× | 2.02 |
Overtime 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No overtime | 96.3% | 97.0% | 94.2% | 1.03× | 1.03 |
| Match to go to overtime | 3.7% | 3.0% | 5.8% | 0.52× | 33.41 |
Team total 44
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Tar Heels under 99.5 | 86.4% | 83.9% | 96.6% | 0.87× | 1.19 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd over 61.5 | 85.3% | 83.9% | 79.3% | 1.06× | 1.19 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd under 81.5 | 85.5% | 83.9% | 81.2% | 1.03× | 1.19 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels over 79.5 | 83.2% | 80.7% | 38.4% | 2.10× | 1.24 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels under 96.5 | 78.5% | 75.1% | 94.8% | 0.79× | 1.33 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd over 64.5 | 76.8% | 75.1% | 70.7% | 1.06× | 1.33 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd under 78.5 | 77.1% | 75.1% | 73.7% | 1.02× | 1.33 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels over 82.5 | 74.3% | 70.7% | 29.2% | 2.42× | 1.41 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels under 94.5 | 72.0% | 70.7% | 93.1% | 0.76× | 1.41 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd under 76.5 | 70.2% | 70.7% | 67.9% | 1.04× | 1.41 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd over 66.5 | 69.9% | 66.4% | 64.7% | 1.03× | 1.51 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels over 84.5 | 67.2% | 66.4% | 23.9% | 2.78× | 1.51 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels under 92.5 | 64.7% | 61.2% | 90.8% | 0.67× | 1.63 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd over 68.5 | 62.2% | 61.2% | 58.4% | 1.05× | 1.63 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd under 74.5 | 62.6% | 61.2% | 61.7% | 0.99× | 1.63 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels over 86.5 | 59.5% | 57.1% | 19.2% | 2.98× | 1.75 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels under 90.5 | 56.8% | 57.1% | 88.1% | 0.65× | 1.75 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd over 70.5 | 54.0% | 52.3% | 51.4% | 1.02× | 1.91 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd under 72.5 | 54.4% | 52.3% | 55.3% | 0.95× | 1.91 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels over 88.5 | 51.4% | 52.3% | 15.2% | 3.44× | 1.91 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels under 89.5 | 52.7% | 52.3% | 86.5% | 0.60× | 1.91 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd under 71.5 | 50.2% | 52.3% | 51.8% | 1.01× | 1.91 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd over 71.5 | 49.8% | 47.7% | 48.2% | 0.99× | 2.09 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels under 88.5 | 48.6% | 47.7% | 84.8% | 0.56× | 2.09 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels over 89.5 | 47.3% | 47.7% | 13.5% | 3.53× | 2.09 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd under 70.5 | 46.0% | 47.7% | 48.7% | 0.98× | 2.09 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd over 72.5 | 45.6% | 47.7% | 44.7% | 1.07× | 2.09 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels over 90.5 | 43.2% | 42.9% | 11.9% | 3.61× | 2.33 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels under 86.5 | 40.5% | 42.9% | 80.8% | 0.53× | 2.33 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd under 68.5 | 37.8% | 38.8% | 41.6% | 0.93× | 2.58 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd over 74.5 | 37.4% | 38.8% | 38.3% | 1.01× | 2.58 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels over 92.5 | 35.3% | 38.8% | 9.2% | 4.22× | 2.58 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels under 84.5 | 32.8% | 33.6% | 76.1% | 0.44× | 2.98 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd under 66.5 | 30.1% | 33.6% | 35.3% | 0.95× | 2.98 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd over 76.5 | 29.8% | 29.3% | 32.1% | 0.91× | 3.42 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels over 94.5 | 28.0% | 29.3% | 6.9% | 4.26× | 3.42 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels under 82.5 | 25.7% | 29.3% | 70.8% | 0.41× | 3.42 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd under 64.5 | 23.2% | 24.9% | 29.3% | 0.85× | 4.02 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd over 78.5 | 22.9% | 24.9% | 26.3% | 0.95× | 4.02 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels over 96.5 | 21.5% | 24.9% | 5.2% | 4.81× | 4.02 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels under 79.5 | 16.8% | 19.3% | 61.6% | 0.31× | 5.18 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd under 61.5 | 14.7% | 16.1% | 20.7% | 0.78× | 6.21 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd over 81.5 | 14.5% | 16.1% | 18.8% | 0.86× | 6.21 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels over 99.5 | 13.6% | 16.1% | 3.4% | 4.67× | 6.21 |
Total points 30
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 140.5 points | 89.2% | 85.0% | 62.8% | 1.35× | 1.18 |
| Under 180.5 points | 89.6% | 85.0% | 95.4% | 0.89× | 1.18 |
| Under 175.5 points | 82.9% | 80.6% | 92.5% | 0.87× | 1.24 |
| Over 145.5 points | 82.2% | 80.6% | 51.8% | 1.55× | 1.24 |
| Under 170.5 points | 73.8% | 70.8% | 88.6% | 0.80× | 1.41 |
| Over 150.5 points | 73.0% | 70.8% | 41.6% | 1.70× | 1.41 |
| Over 153.5 points | 66.4% | 65.9% | 35.4% | 1.86× | 1.52 |
| Under 167.5 points | 67.4% | 65.9% | 85.6% | 0.77× | 1.52 |
| Under 165.5 points | 62.8% | 61.5% | 83.4% | 0.74× | 1.63 |
| Over 155.5 points | 61.7% | 61.5% | 31.9% | 1.92× | 1.63 |
| Under 163.5 points | 58.0% | 56.5% | 80.9% | 0.70× | 1.77 |
| Over 157.5 points | 56.9% | 56.5% | 28.4% | 1.99× | 1.77 |
| Over 159.5 points | 51.9% | 52.3% | 25.0% | 2.09× | 1.91 |
| Under 161.5 points | 53.0% | 52.3% | 77.9% | 0.67× | 1.91 |
| Under 160.5 points | 50.5% | 52.3% | 76.4% | 0.69× | 1.91 |
| Over 160.5 points | 49.5% | 47.7% | 23.6% | 2.02× | 2.10 |
| Under 159.5 points | 48.1% | 47.7% | 75.0% | 0.64× | 2.10 |
| Over 161.5 points | 47.0% | 47.7% | 22.1% | 2.16× | 2.10 |
| Under 157.5 points | 43.1% | 43.5% | 71.6% | 0.61× | 2.30 |
| Over 163.5 points | 42.0% | 43.5% | 19.1% | 2.28× | 2.30 |
| Under 155.5 points | 38.3% | 38.5% | 68.1% | 0.57× | 2.60 |
| Over 165.5 points | 37.2% | 38.5% | 16.6% | 2.32× | 2.60 |
| Under 153.5 points | 33.6% | 34.1% | 64.6% | 0.53× | 2.93 |
| Over 167.5 points | 32.6% | 34.1% | 14.4% | 2.37× | 2.93 |
| Under 150.5 points | 27.0% | 29.2% | 58.4% | 0.50× | 3.43 |
| Over 170.5 points | 26.2% | 29.2% | 11.4% | 2.57× | 3.43 |
| Under 145.5 points | 17.8% | 19.4% | 48.2% | 0.40× | 5.15 |
| Over 175.5 points | 17.1% | 19.4% | 7.5% | 2.59× | 5.15 |
| Under 140.5 points | 10.8% | 15.0% | 37.2% | 0.40× | 6.69 |
| Over 180.5 points | 10.4% | 15.0% | 4.6% | 3.26× | 6.69 |
Win both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Tar Heels to win both halves | 66.1% | 66.7% | 33.2% | 2.01× | 1.50 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd to win both halves | 1.1% | 3.0% | 14.5% | 0.20× | 33.78 |
Winning margin 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Tar Heels by 26+ | 22.2% | 24.0% | 7.9% | 3.04× | 4.17 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels by 16-20 | 18.6% | 16.8% | 7.6% | 2.20× | 5.97 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels by 11-15 | 17.3% | 16.8% | 11.6% | 1.45× | 5.97 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels by 21-25 | 16.1% | 16.8% | 5.6% | 3.01× | 5.97 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels by 6-10 | 13.0% | 12.3% | 14.4% | 0.86× | 8.11 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels by 1-5 | 7.9% | 7.5% | 16.2% | 0.46× | 13.40 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd by 1-5 | 3.3% | 2.0% | 13.2% | 0.15× | 49.30 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd by 6-10 | 1.2% | 2.0% | 10.8% | 0.19× | 49.32 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd by 11-15 | 0.4% | 2.0% | 6.1% | 0.33× | 49.32 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd by 16-20 | 0.1% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 0.61× | 49.33 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd by 21-25 | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.06× | 49.33 |
| Marshall Thundering Herd by 26+ | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.30× | 49.33 |