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Ohio State Buckeyes v VCU Rams — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 28 November 2026 · NCAAW · 2027

NCAAW results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Ohio State Buckeyes win
99.9%
Draw
0.0%
VCU Rams win
0.1%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 86.02–51.07 86-51 0% 55% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ohio State Buckeyes to score 100+ 8.5% 8.8% 1.8% 4.90× 11.36
Ohio State Buckeyes to score 110+ 0.8% 0.4% 0.6% 0.64× 283.21
Ohio State Buckeyes to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 2.91× 283.35
Ohio State Buckeyes to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 7.58× 283.36
VCU Rams to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.71× 283.36
VCU Rams to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.74× 283.36
VCU Rams to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 18.95× 283.36
VCU Rams to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 37.89× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 6.32× 283.36
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ohio State Buckeyes to win H1 96.4% 98.5% 56.4% 1.75× 1.02
VCU Rams to win H1 2.8% 3.9% 39.9% 0.10× 25.87
H1 tied 0.8% 3.9% 3.7% 1.05× 25.89
H1 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 over 54.5 89.5% 87.7% 74.0% 1.19× 1.14
H1 under 78.5 88.8% 87.7% 92.8% 0.95× 1.14
H1 over 58.5 79.7% 77.4% 61.4% 1.26× 1.29
H1 under 74.5 79.2% 77.4% 87.2% 0.89× 1.29
H1 over 61.5 69.8% 67.4% 50.2% 1.34× 1.48
H1 under 71.5 69.5% 67.4% 81.4% 0.83× 1.48
H1 over 63.5 62.2% 62.7% 42.9% 1.46× 1.59
H1 under 69.5 62.0% 62.7% 76.2% 0.82× 1.59
H1 over 65.5 54.1% 52.6% 36.1% 1.46× 1.90
H1 under 67.5 54.0% 52.6% 70.4% 0.75× 1.90
H1 over 66.5 50.0% 52.6% 32.9% 1.60× 1.90
H1 under 66.5 50.0% 47.4% 67.1% 0.71× 2.11
H1 under 65.5 45.9% 47.4% 63.9% 0.74× 2.11
H1 over 67.5 46.0% 47.4% 29.6% 1.60× 2.11
H1 over 69.5 38.0% 37.3% 23.8% 1.56× 2.68
H1 under 63.5 37.8% 37.3% 57.1% 0.65× 2.68
H1 under 61.5 30.2% 32.6% 49.8% 0.65× 3.07
H1 over 71.5 30.5% 32.6% 18.6% 1.76× 3.07
H1 under 58.5 20.3% 22.6% 38.6% 0.58× 4.43
H1 over 74.5 20.8% 22.6% 12.8% 1.76× 4.43
H1 over 78.5 11.2% 12.3% 7.2% 1.70× 8.14
H1 under 54.5 10.5% 12.3% 26.0% 0.47× 8.14
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ohio State Buckeyes to win H2 97.2% 95.5% 56.0% 1.70× 1.05
VCU Rams to win H2 2.2% 3.9% 40.6% 0.10× 25.37
H2 tied 0.7% 3.9% 3.4% 1.16× 25.38
H2 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 85.5 89.1% 85.2% 91.2% 0.93× 1.17
H2 over 61.5 87.1% 85.2% 71.3% 1.20× 1.17
H2 under 81.5 80.1% 81.8% 85.8% 0.95× 1.22
H2 over 65.5 76.7% 75.8% 58.8% 1.29× 1.32
H2 under 78.5 71.1% 72.2% 80.1% 0.90× 1.39
H2 over 68.5 66.6% 66.4% 48.7% 1.36× 1.51
H2 under 76.5 64.1% 61.6% 75.6% 0.81× 1.62
H2 over 70.5 59.1% 57.3% 42.2% 1.36× 1.74
H2 under 74.5 56.5% 57.3% 69.9% 0.82× 1.74
H2 under 73.5 52.6% 52.4% 67.1% 0.78× 1.91
H2 over 72.5 51.3% 52.4% 36.0% 1.46× 1.91
H2 under 72.5 48.7% 47.6% 64.1% 0.74× 2.10
H2 over 73.5 47.4% 47.6% 32.9% 1.45× 2.10
H2 over 74.5 43.5% 42.7% 30.1% 1.42× 2.34
H2 under 70.5 40.9% 42.7% 57.8% 0.74× 2.35
H2 over 76.5 35.9% 38.4% 24.4% 1.57× 2.61
H2 under 68.5 33.4% 33.6% 51.3% 0.66× 2.97
H2 over 78.5 28.9% 27.8% 19.9% 1.40× 3.59
H2 under 65.5 23.3% 24.2% 41.2% 0.59× 4.13
H2 over 81.5 19.9% 18.2% 14.2% 1.28× 5.50
H2 under 61.5 12.9% 14.8% 28.7% 0.51× 6.76
H2 over 85.5 10.9% 14.8% 8.8% 1.69× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ohio State Buckeyes leading at half time 96.4% 98.3% 56.4% 1.74× 1.02
VCU Rams leading at half time 2.8% 3.8% 39.9% 0.09× 26.42
Level at half time 0.8% 3.8% 3.7% 1.03× 26.44
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ohio State Buckeyes −1.5 99.9% 97.4% 58.7% 1.66× 1.03
Ohio State Buckeyes +1.5 99.9% 97.4% 61.2% 1.59× 1.03
Ohio State Buckeyes −2.5 99.8% 97.4% 56.7% 1.72× 1.03
Ohio State Buckeyes +2.5 100.0% 97.4% 63.3% 1.54× 1.03
Ohio State Buckeyes −3.5 99.7% 97.4% 54.2% 1.80× 1.03
Ohio State Buckeyes +3.5 100.0% 97.4% 65.7% 1.48× 1.03
Ohio State Buckeyes −4.5 99.7% 97.4% 52.2% 1.87× 1.03
Ohio State Buckeyes +4.5 100.0% 97.4% 67.8% 1.44× 1.03
Ohio State Buckeyes −5.5 99.5% 97.4% 49.7% 1.96× 1.03
Ohio State Buckeyes +5.5 100.0% 97.4% 70.1% 1.39× 1.03
Ohio State Buckeyes −6.5 99.4% 97.4% 47.6% 2.05× 1.03
Ohio State Buckeyes +6.5 100.0% 97.4% 72.3% 1.35× 1.03
Ohio State Buckeyes +7.5 100.0% 97.4% 74.5% 1.31× 1.03
Ohio State Buckeyes +8.5 100.0% 97.4% 76.5% 1.27× 1.03
Ohio State Buckeyes +9.5 100.0% 97.4% 78.7% 1.24× 1.03
Ohio State Buckeyes +10.5 100.0% 97.4% 80.4% 1.21× 1.03
Ohio State Buckeyes +12.5 100.0% 97.4% 83.8% 1.16× 1.03
Ohio State Buckeyes +14.5 100.0% 97.4% 86.7% 1.12× 1.03
Ohio State Buckeyes +16.5 100.0% 97.4% 89.1% 1.09× 1.03
Ohio State Buckeyes +18.5 100.0% 97.4% 91.1% 1.07× 1.03
Ohio State Buckeyes +20.5 100.0% 97.4% 92.7% 1.05× 1.03
Ohio State Buckeyes −7.5 99.2% 97.4% 44.8% 2.18× 1.03
Ohio State Buckeyes −8.5 99.0% 97.4% 42.0% 2.32× 1.03
Ohio State Buckeyes −9.5 98.7% 97.4% 39.3% 2.48× 1.03
Ohio State Buckeyes −10.5 98.4% 97.4% 36.8% 2.65× 1.03
Ohio State Buckeyes −12.5 97.5% 97.4% 32.1% 3.03× 1.03
Ohio State Buckeyes −14.5 96.2% 97.4% 27.9% 3.49× 1.03
Ohio State Buckeyes −16.5 94.4% 91.1% 24.3% 3.76× 1.10
Ohio State Buckeyes −18.5 92.0% 91.1% 20.7% 4.40× 1.10
Ohio State Buckeyes −20.5 88.9% 85.9% 18.0% 4.77× 1.16
VCU Rams +20.5 11.1% 14.1% 82.0% 0.17× 7.09
VCU Rams +18.5 8.0% 8.9% 79.3% 0.11× 11.25
VCU Rams +16.5 5.6% 8.9% 75.7% 0.12× 11.25
VCU Rams +7.5 0.8% 2.6% 55.2% 0.05× 38.74
VCU Rams +8.5 1.0% 2.6% 58.0% 0.04× 38.74
VCU Rams +9.5 1.3% 2.6% 60.7% 0.04× 38.74
VCU Rams +10.5 1.6% 2.6% 63.2% 0.04× 38.73
VCU Rams +12.5 2.5% 2.6% 67.9% 0.04× 38.73
VCU Rams +14.5 3.8% 2.6% 72.1% 0.04× 38.73
VCU Rams +1.5 0.1% 2.6% 41.3% 0.06× 38.74
VCU Rams −1.5 0.1% 2.6% 38.8% 0.07× 38.74
VCU Rams +2.5 0.2% 2.6% 43.3% 0.06× 38.74
VCU Rams −2.5 0.0% 2.6% 36.7% 0.07× 38.74
VCU Rams +3.5 0.3% 2.6% 45.8% 0.06× 38.74
VCU Rams −3.5 0.0% 2.6% 34.3% 0.08× 38.74
VCU Rams +4.5 0.3% 2.6% 47.8% 0.05× 38.74
VCU Rams −4.5 0.0% 2.6% 32.2% 0.08× 38.74
VCU Rams +5.5 0.5% 2.6% 50.3% 0.05× 38.74
VCU Rams −5.5 0.0% 2.6% 29.9% 0.09× 38.74
VCU Rams +6.5 0.6% 2.6% 52.4% 0.05× 38.74
VCU Rams −6.5 0.0% 2.6% 27.7% 0.09× 38.74
VCU Rams −7.5 0.0% 2.6% 25.5% 0.10× 38.74
VCU Rams −8.5 0.0% 2.6% 23.5% 0.11× 38.74
VCU Rams −9.5 0.0% 2.6% 21.3% 0.12× 38.74
VCU Rams −10.5 0.0% 2.6% 19.6% 0.13× 38.74
VCU Rams −12.5 0.0% 2.6% 16.2% 0.16× 38.74
VCU Rams −14.5 0.0% 2.6% 13.3% 0.19× 38.74
VCU Rams −16.5 0.0% 2.6% 10.9% 0.24× 38.74
VCU Rams −18.5 0.0% 2.6% 8.9% 0.29× 38.74
VCU Rams −20.5 0.0% 2.6% 7.3% 0.35× 38.74
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 73.4% 67.1% 66.7% 1.01× 1.49
1st half highest scoring 26.6% 32.9% 33.3% 0.99× 3.04
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 highest scoring 34.9% 31.9% 31.2% 1.02× 3.14
Q3 highest scoring 33.2% 31.9% 31.3% 1.02× 3.14
Q1 highest scoring 16.7% 18.3% 19.6% 0.94× 5.46
Q2 highest scoring 15.1% 18.3% 17.9% 1.02× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ohio State Buckeyes at HT / Ohio State Buckeyes at FT 96.3% 98.3% 48.3% 2.04× 1.02
VCU Rams at HT / Ohio State Buckeyes at FT 2.8% 2.1% 9.8% 0.21× 47.74
Level at HT / Ohio State Buckeyes at FT 0.8% 2.1% 1.9% 1.09× 47.78
Ohio State Buckeyes at HT / VCU Rams at FT 0.0% 2.1% 8.2% 0.26× 47.79
Level at HT / VCU Rams at FT 0.0% 2.1% 1.8% 1.20× 47.79
VCU Rams at HT / VCU Rams at FT 0.1% 2.1% 30.1% 0.07× 47.79
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ohio State Buckeyes to win 99.9% 97.5% 59.9% 1.63× 1.03
VCU Rams to win 0.1% 2.5% 40.1% 0.06× 39.96
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ohio State Buckeyes even 50.0% 50.5% 49.4% 1.02× 1.98
VCU Rams even 50.6% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
Total points odd 50.0% 50.5% 51.5% 0.98× 1.98
Ohio State Buckeyes odd 50.0% 49.5% 50.6% 0.98× 2.02
VCU Rams odd 49.4% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
Total points even 50.0% 49.5% 48.5% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 99.5% 97.0% 95.6% 1.02× 1.03
Match to go to overtime 0.5% 3.0% 4.4% 0.67× 33.63
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ohio State Buckeyes to win Q1 88.0% 91.7% 54.7% 1.68× 1.09
VCU Rams to win Q1 9.2% 5.5% 40.4% 0.14× 18.26
Q1 tied 2.8% 4.2% 4.9% 0.85× 24.02
Q1 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 over 25.5 88.7% 87.4% 77.6% 1.13× 1.14
Q1 under 41.5 88.7% 87.4% 91.9% 0.95× 1.14
Q1 under 38.5 77.7% 76.9% 84.8% 0.91× 1.30
Q1 over 28.5 77.4% 76.9% 62.7% 1.23× 1.30
Q1 under 36.5 67.7% 67.6% 77.4% 0.87× 1.48
Q1 over 30.5 67.3% 67.6% 51.2% 1.32× 1.48
Q1 under 34.5 56.3% 58.6% 68.5% 0.86× 1.71
Q1 over 32.5 55.7% 58.6% 40.9% 1.43× 1.71
Q1 under 33.5 50.3% 52.7% 64.0% 0.82× 1.90
Q1 over 33.5 49.7% 47.3% 36.0% 1.31× 2.11
Q1 under 32.5 44.3% 41.4% 59.1% 0.70× 2.42
Q1 over 34.5 43.7% 41.4% 31.5% 1.31× 2.42
Q1 under 30.5 32.7% 32.4% 48.8% 0.67× 3.08
Q1 over 36.5 32.3% 32.4% 22.6% 1.44× 3.08
Q1 under 28.5 22.6% 23.1% 37.3% 0.62× 4.33
Q1 over 38.5 22.3% 23.1% 15.2% 1.52× 4.33
Q1 under 25.5 11.3% 12.6% 22.4% 0.56× 7.95
Q1 over 41.5 11.3% 12.6% 8.1% 1.56× 7.95
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ohio State Buckeyes to win Q2 87.2% 92.0% 52.9% 1.74× 1.09
VCU Rams to win Q2 9.9% 6.1% 41.5% 0.15× 16.44
Q2 tied 2.9% 4.4% 5.7% 0.77× 22.95
Q2 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 under 41.5 89.7% 87.3% 92.7% 0.94× 1.15
Q2 over 25.5 87.6% 87.3% 76.2% 1.15× 1.15
Q2 under 38.5 79.2% 76.8% 85.6% 0.90× 1.30
Q2 over 28.5 75.7% 76.8% 61.2% 1.26× 1.30
Q2 under 36.5 69.6% 67.4% 78.7% 0.86× 1.48
Q2 over 30.5 65.3% 67.4% 49.9% 1.35× 1.49
Q2 under 34.5 58.3% 58.2% 70.1% 0.83× 1.72
Q2 over 32.5 53.6% 52.7% 39.2% 1.34× 1.90
Q2 under 33.5 52.4% 52.7% 65.6% 0.80× 1.90
Q2 over 33.5 47.6% 47.3% 34.4% 1.38× 2.11
Q2 under 32.5 46.4% 47.3% 60.8% 0.78× 2.11
Q2 over 34.5 41.7% 41.8% 29.9% 1.40× 2.39
Q2 under 30.5 34.7% 32.6% 50.1% 0.65× 3.06
Q2 over 36.5 30.4% 32.6% 21.3% 1.53× 3.06
Q2 under 28.5 24.3% 23.2% 38.8% 0.60× 4.31
Q2 over 38.5 20.8% 23.2% 14.4% 1.61× 4.31
Q2 under 25.5 12.4% 12.7% 23.8% 0.53× 7.89
Q2 over 41.5 10.3% 12.7% 7.3% 1.72× 7.90
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ohio State Buckeyes to win Q3 89.4% 87.7% 53.3% 1.65× 1.14
VCU Rams to win Q3 8.1% 5.3% 41.8% 0.13× 18.92
Q3 tied 2.5% 4.3% 4.9% 0.86× 23.50
Q3 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 over 28.5 88.0% 87.2% 76.4% 1.14× 1.15
Q3 under 44.5 88.2% 87.2% 92.1% 0.95× 1.15
Q3 under 41.5 77.3% 77.3% 85.1% 0.91× 1.29
Q3 over 31.5 76.6% 77.3% 61.6% 1.25× 1.29
Q3 under 39.5 67.6% 67.8% 77.9% 0.87× 1.48
Q3 over 33.5 66.6% 67.8% 50.9% 1.33× 1.48
Q3 under 37.5 56.4% 58.4% 69.7% 0.84× 1.71
Q3 over 35.5 55.3% 58.4% 40.3% 1.45× 1.71
Q3 under 36.5 50.6% 52.3% 64.6% 0.81× 1.91
Q3 over 36.5 49.4% 47.7% 35.4% 1.35× 2.10
Q3 under 35.5 44.7% 41.6% 59.7% 0.70× 2.40
Q3 over 37.5 43.6% 41.6% 30.3% 1.37× 2.40
Q3 under 33.5 33.4% 32.2% 49.1% 0.66× 3.10
Q3 over 39.5 32.4% 32.2% 22.1% 1.46× 3.10
Q3 under 31.5 23.4% 22.7% 38.4% 0.59× 4.40
Q3 over 41.5 22.7% 22.7% 14.9% 1.53× 4.40
Q3 under 28.5 12.0% 12.8% 23.6% 0.54× 7.83
Q3 over 44.5 11.8% 12.8% 7.9% 1.63× 7.83
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ohio State Buckeyes to win Q4 89.0% 83.8% 52.8% 1.59× 1.19
VCU Rams to win Q4 8.5% 5.8% 41.5% 0.14× 17.21
Q4 tied 2.5% 5.2% 5.7% 0.91× 19.33
Q4 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 over 28.5 86.7% 85.6% 75.1% 1.14× 1.17
Q4 under 44.5 86.6% 85.6% 90.6% 0.95× 1.17
Q4 over 31.5 75.6% 76.9% 61.1% 1.26× 1.30
Q4 under 41.5 75.7% 76.9% 83.6% 0.92× 1.30
Q4 over 33.5 66.1% 67.4% 50.4% 1.34× 1.48
Q4 under 39.5 66.2% 67.4% 77.0% 0.88× 1.48
Q4 over 35.5 55.4% 58.4% 40.6% 1.44× 1.71
Q4 under 37.5 55.6% 58.4% 68.8% 0.85× 1.71
Q4 under 36.5 50.1% 52.5% 64.3% 0.82× 1.91
Q4 over 36.5 49.9% 47.5% 35.7% 1.33× 2.11
Q4 under 35.5 44.6% 41.6% 59.4% 0.70× 2.40
Q4 over 37.5 44.4% 41.6% 31.2% 1.33× 2.40
Q4 under 33.5 33.9% 32.6% 49.6% 0.66× 3.07
Q4 over 39.5 33.8% 32.6% 23.0% 1.41× 3.07
Q4 under 31.5 24.4% 23.1% 38.9% 0.59× 4.33
Q4 over 41.5 24.3% 23.1% 16.4% 1.41× 4.33
Q4 under 28.5 13.3% 14.4% 24.9% 0.58× 6.95
Q4 over 44.5 13.4% 14.4% 9.4% 1.53× 6.95
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
VCU Rams under 63.5 89.9% 83.9% 53.9% 1.56× 1.19
VCU Rams over 43.5 88.7% 83.9% 93.7% 0.90× 1.19
Ohio State Buckeyes over 76.5 85.8% 83.9% 24.6% 3.42× 1.19
Ohio State Buckeyes under 96.5 85.4% 83.9% 97.5% 0.86× 1.19
VCU Rams under 60.5 82.7% 80.7% 44.4% 1.82× 1.24
Ohio State Buckeyes over 79.5 77.4% 75.1% 18.7% 4.02× 1.33
Ohio State Buckeyes under 93.5 76.9% 75.1% 96.1% 0.78× 1.33
VCU Rams over 46.5 77.1% 75.1% 89.7% 0.84× 1.33
VCU Rams under 58.5 76.3% 75.1% 37.9% 1.98× 1.33
Ohio State Buckeyes over 81.5 70.5% 70.7% 15.4% 4.58× 1.41
Ohio State Buckeyes under 91.5 69.9% 66.4% 95.1% 0.70× 1.51
VCU Rams under 56.5 68.8% 66.4% 32.0% 2.08× 1.51
VCU Rams over 48.5 68.1% 66.4% 86.7% 0.77× 1.51
Ohio State Buckeyes over 83.5 62.8% 61.2% 12.3% 4.97× 1.63
Ohio State Buckeyes under 89.5 62.2% 61.2% 93.9% 0.65× 1.63
VCU Rams under 54.5 60.2% 61.2% 26.5% 2.31× 1.63
VCU Rams over 50.5 58.7% 57.1% 83.1% 0.69× 1.75
VCU Rams under 53.5 55.6% 57.1% 23.7% 2.41× 1.75
Ohio State Buckeyes over 85.5 54.5% 52.3% 9.8% 5.34× 1.91
Ohio State Buckeyes under 87.5 53.9% 52.3% 92.3% 0.57× 1.91
Ohio State Buckeyes over 86.5 50.3% 52.3% 8.8% 5.94× 1.91
VCU Rams under 52.5 50.9% 52.3% 21.5% 2.43× 1.91
Ohio State Buckeyes under 86.5 49.7% 47.7% 91.2% 0.52× 2.09
VCU Rams over 52.5 49.1% 47.7% 78.5% 0.61× 2.09
Ohio State Buckeyes under 85.5 45.5% 47.7% 90.2% 0.53× 2.09
Ohio State Buckeyes over 87.5 46.1% 47.7% 7.7% 6.22× 2.09
VCU Rams over 53.5 44.4% 42.9% 76.3% 0.56× 2.33
VCU Rams under 50.5 41.3% 42.9% 16.9% 2.54× 2.33
VCU Rams over 54.5 39.8% 38.8% 73.5% 0.53× 2.58
Ohio State Buckeyes under 83.5 37.2% 38.8% 87.7% 0.44× 2.58
Ohio State Buckeyes over 89.5 37.8% 38.8% 6.1% 6.32× 2.58
VCU Rams under 48.5 31.9% 33.6% 13.3% 2.53× 2.98
VCU Rams over 56.5 31.2% 33.6% 68.0% 0.49× 2.98
Ohio State Buckeyes over 91.5 30.1% 33.6% 4.9% 6.87× 2.98
Ohio State Buckeyes under 81.5 29.5% 29.3% 84.6% 0.35× 3.42
Ohio State Buckeyes under 79.5 22.6% 24.9% 81.3% 0.31× 4.02
Ohio State Buckeyes over 93.5 23.1% 24.9% 3.9% 6.44× 4.02
VCU Rams under 46.5 22.9% 24.9% 10.3% 2.42× 4.02
VCU Rams over 58.5 23.7% 24.9% 62.1% 0.40× 4.02
VCU Rams over 60.5 17.3% 19.3% 55.6% 0.35× 5.18
Ohio State Buckeyes under 76.5 14.2% 16.1% 75.4% 0.21× 6.21
Ohio State Buckeyes over 96.5 14.6% 16.1% 2.5% 6.42× 6.21
VCU Rams under 43.5 11.3% 16.1% 6.3% 2.54× 6.21
VCU Rams over 63.5 10.1% 16.1% 46.1% 0.35× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 119.5 points 93.6% 88.8% 71.6% 1.24× 1.13
Under 159.5 points 92.3% 88.8% 93.3% 0.95× 1.13
Over 124.5 points 86.7% 85.0% 61.5% 1.38× 1.18
Under 154.5 points 86.1% 85.0% 89.8% 0.95× 1.18
Under 149.5 points 77.0% 75.6% 84.9% 0.89× 1.32
Over 129.5 points 76.3% 75.6% 50.5% 1.50× 1.32
Under 146.5 points 70.2% 70.8% 80.9% 0.88× 1.41
Over 132.5 points 68.7% 65.9% 44.0% 1.50× 1.52
Under 144.5 points 65.1% 65.9% 78.1% 0.84× 1.52
Over 134.5 points 63.1% 61.5% 39.8% 1.54× 1.63
Under 142.5 points 59.8% 56.5% 75.1% 0.75× 1.77
Over 136.5 points 57.4% 56.5% 35.8% 1.58× 1.77
Under 140.5 points 54.1% 52.3% 71.8% 0.73× 1.91
Over 138.5 points 51.6% 52.3% 32.1% 1.63× 1.91
Under 139.5 points 51.3% 52.3% 69.9% 0.75× 1.91
Over 139.5 points 48.7% 47.7% 30.1% 1.58× 2.10
Under 138.5 points 48.4% 47.7% 67.9% 0.70× 2.10
Over 140.5 points 45.9% 47.7% 28.2% 1.69× 2.10
Under 136.5 points 42.6% 43.5% 64.2% 0.68× 2.30
Over 142.5 points 40.2% 43.5% 24.9% 1.75× 2.30
Under 134.5 points 36.9% 38.5% 60.2% 0.64× 2.60
Over 144.5 points 34.9% 34.1% 21.9% 1.56× 2.93
Under 132.5 points 31.3% 34.1% 56.0% 0.61× 2.93
Over 146.5 points 29.8% 29.2% 19.1% 1.53× 3.43
Under 129.5 points 23.7% 24.4% 49.5% 0.49× 4.10
Over 149.5 points 23.0% 24.4% 15.1% 1.62× 4.10
Over 154.5 points 13.9% 15.0% 10.2% 1.47× 6.68
Under 124.5 points 13.3% 15.0% 38.5% 0.39× 6.69
Over 159.5 points 7.7% 11.2% 6.7% 1.67× 8.97
Under 119.5 points 6.4% 11.2% 28.4% 0.39× 8.97
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ohio State Buckeyes to win both halves 93.6% 93.3% 36.0% 2.59× 1.07
VCU Rams to win both halves 0.0% 3.0% 20.4% 0.15× 33.85
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ohio State Buckeyes by 26+ 77.8% 82.6% 12.6% 6.55× 1.21
Ohio State Buckeyes by 21-25 11.2% 12.3% 5.4% 2.29× 8.11
Ohio State Buckeyes by 16-20 6.4% 7.5% 8.0% 0.93× 13.40
Ohio State Buckeyes by 6-10 1.2% 2.0% 12.9% 0.16× 49.32
Ohio State Buckeyes by 11-15 3.0% 2.0% 10.8% 0.19× 49.30
Ohio State Buckeyes by 1-5 0.4% 2.0% 10.2% 0.20× 49.32
VCU Rams by 1-5 0.1% 2.0% 10.2% 0.20× 49.33
VCU Rams by 6-10 0.0% 2.0% 10.3% 0.20× 49.33
VCU Rams by 11-15 0.0% 2.0% 7.6% 0.27× 49.33
VCU Rams by 16-20 0.0% 2.0% 4.8% 0.43× 49.33
VCU Rams by 21-25 0.0% 2.0% 2.7% 0.76× 49.33
VCU Rams by 26+ 0.0% 2.0% 4.6% 0.44× 49.33
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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