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Oklahoma City Thunder v Indiana Pacers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 14 October 2026 · NBA · 2027

NBA results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Oklahoma City Thunder win
90.3%
Draw
0.0%
Indiana Pacers win
9.7%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 125.03–106.58 125-107 0% 50% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oklahoma City Thunder to score 100+ 98.5% 94.9% 89.3% 1.06× 1.05
Oklahoma City Thunder to score 110+ 90.9% 90.3% 67.0% 1.35× 1.11
Indiana Pacers to score 100+ 72.5% 72.3% 85.9% 0.84× 1.38
Both sides to score 100+ 71.8% 72.3% 77.5% 0.93× 1.38
Oklahoma City Thunder to score 120+ 68.5% 63.8% 36.5% 1.75× 1.57
Indiana Pacers to score 110+ 39.7% 36.0% 60.9% 0.59× 2.77
Oklahoma City Thunder to score 130+ 35.6% 35.9% 12.8% 2.80× 2.78
Indiana Pacers to score 120+ 13.1% 13.8% 29.7% 0.47× 7.23
Indiana Pacers to score 130+ 2.4% 0.4% 10.0% 0.04× 282.88
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oklahoma City Thunder to win H1 78.6% 79.2% 52.8% 1.50× 1.26
Indiana Pacers to win H1 18.9% 16.9% 44.1% 0.38× 5.91
H1 tied 2.5% 3.9% 3.1% 1.25× 25.87
H1 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 128.5 82.5% 83.2% 86.7% 0.96× 1.20
H1 over 104.5 81.3% 83.2% 78.3% 1.06× 1.20
H1 under 129.5 83.4% 82.5% 88.1% 0.94× 1.21
H1 over 105.5 81.0% 82.5% 75.8% 1.09× 1.21
H1 under 124.5 73.6% 74.0% 78.4% 0.94× 1.35
H1 over 108.5 72.1% 74.0% 67.7% 1.09× 1.35
H1 under 125.5 74.6% 73.5% 80.7% 0.91× 1.36
H1 over 109.5 71.5% 73.5% 65.0% 1.13× 1.36
H1 under 121.5 65.7% 68.1% 71.2% 0.96× 1.47
H1 under 122.5 66.7% 67.4% 74.0% 0.91× 1.48
H1 over 111.5 64.0% 63.3% 59.0% 1.07× 1.58
H1 over 112.5 63.2% 62.7% 55.8% 1.12× 1.59
H1 under 120.5 60.9% 62.7% 68.4% 0.92× 1.59
H1 over 114.5 57.3% 58.2% 49.6% 1.17× 1.72
H1 under 119.5 59.9% 58.2% 65.9% 0.88× 1.72
H1 over 113.5 58.1% 58.1% 52.4% 1.11× 1.72
H1 under 118.5 54.9% 52.6% 62.9% 0.84× 1.90
H1 under 117.5 51.9% 52.6% 59.6% 0.88× 1.90
H1 over 116.5 51.2% 52.6% 43.4% 1.21× 1.90
H1 over 115.5 52.1% 52.5% 46.4% 1.13× 1.90
H1 under 115.5 47.9% 47.5% 53.6% 0.89× 2.11
H1 under 116.5 48.8% 47.4% 56.6% 0.84× 2.11
H1 over 117.5 48.1% 47.4% 40.4% 1.17× 2.11
H1 over 118.5 45.1% 47.4% 37.1% 1.28× 2.11
H1 under 113.5 41.9% 41.9% 47.6% 0.88× 2.39
H1 over 119.5 40.1% 41.8% 34.1% 1.23× 2.39
H1 under 114.5 42.7% 41.8% 50.4% 0.83× 2.39
H1 over 120.5 39.1% 37.3% 31.6% 1.18× 2.68
H1 under 112.5 36.8% 37.3% 44.2% 0.84× 2.68
H1 under 111.5 36.0% 36.7% 41.0% 0.89× 2.72
H1 over 122.5 33.3% 32.6% 26.0% 1.25× 3.07
H1 over 121.5 34.3% 32.0% 28.8% 1.11× 3.13
H1 under 109.5 28.5% 26.5% 35.0% 0.76× 3.77
H1 over 125.5 25.4% 26.5% 19.3% 1.37× 3.77
H1 under 108.5 27.9% 26.0% 32.3% 0.81× 3.84
H1 over 124.5 26.4% 26.0% 21.7% 1.20× 3.84
H1 under 105.5 19.0% 17.5% 24.2% 0.72× 5.72
H1 over 129.5 16.6% 17.5% 11.9% 1.47× 5.73
H1 under 104.5 18.7% 16.8% 21.7% 0.77× 5.96
H1 over 128.5 17.5% 16.8% 13.3% 1.26× 5.96
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oklahoma City Thunder to win H2 78.3% 73.9% 51.6% 1.43× 1.35
Indiana Pacers to win H2 19.2% 20.5% 44.7% 0.46× 4.89
H2 tied 2.5% 3.9% 3.7% 1.06× 25.37
H2 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 over 102.5 82.9% 81.8% 78.5% 1.04× 1.22
H2 under 126.5 82.0% 81.8% 83.2% 0.98× 1.22
H2 over 106.5 73.8% 72.2% 68.8% 1.05× 1.39
H2 under 122.5 72.7% 72.2% 74.4% 0.97× 1.39
H2 over 109.5 65.7% 66.4% 60.9% 1.09× 1.51
H2 under 119.5 64.5% 61.6% 66.4% 0.93× 1.62
H2 over 111.5 59.9% 57.3% 55.3% 1.04× 1.74
H2 under 117.5 58.5% 57.3% 61.1% 0.94× 1.74
H2 over 113.5 53.8% 52.4% 49.9% 1.05× 1.91
H2 under 115.5 52.4% 52.4% 55.4% 0.95× 1.91
H2 over 114.5 50.7% 52.4% 47.5% 1.10× 1.91
H2 under 114.5 49.3% 47.6% 52.5% 0.91× 2.10
H2 over 115.5 47.6% 47.6% 44.6% 1.07× 2.10
H2 under 113.5 46.2% 47.6% 50.1% 0.95× 2.10
H2 over 117.5 41.5% 42.7% 38.9% 1.10× 2.34
H2 under 111.5 40.1% 42.7% 44.7% 0.96× 2.35
H2 over 119.5 35.5% 38.4% 33.6% 1.14× 2.61
H2 under 109.5 34.3% 33.6% 39.1% 0.86× 2.97
H2 over 122.5 27.3% 27.8% 25.6% 1.09× 3.59
H2 under 106.5 26.2% 27.8% 31.2% 0.89× 3.59
H2 over 126.5 18.0% 18.2% 16.8% 1.08× 5.50
H2 under 102.5 17.1% 18.2% 21.5% 0.85× 5.50
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oklahoma City Thunder leading at half time 78.6% 79.7% 52.8% 1.51× 1.25
Indiana Pacers leading at half time 18.9% 17.1% 44.1% 0.39× 5.86
Level at half time 2.5% 3.8% 3.1% 1.22× 26.42
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oklahoma City Thunder +18.5 99.5% 97.4% 91.5% 1.06× 1.03
Oklahoma City Thunder +20.5 99.6% 97.4% 93.1% 1.05× 1.03
Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5 95.7% 97.4% 70.6% 1.38× 1.03
Oklahoma City Thunder +7.5 96.3% 97.4% 73.0% 1.33× 1.03
Oklahoma City Thunder +8.5 96.8% 97.4% 75.7% 1.29× 1.03
Oklahoma City Thunder +9.5 97.3% 97.4% 78.1% 1.25× 1.03
Oklahoma City Thunder +10.5 97.7% 97.4% 80.3% 1.21× 1.03
Oklahoma City Thunder +12.5 98.3% 97.4% 83.9% 1.16× 1.03
Oklahoma City Thunder +14.5 98.8% 97.4% 87.0% 1.12× 1.03
Oklahoma City Thunder +16.5 99.2% 97.4% 89.7% 1.09× 1.03
Oklahoma City Thunder +5.5 95.0% 97.4% 68.0% 1.43× 1.03
Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5 94.3% 91.1% 65.7% 1.39× 1.10
Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5 92.5% 91.1% 60.5% 1.51× 1.10
Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5 93.4% 91.1% 63.1% 1.44× 1.10
Oklahoma City Thunder +1.5 91.5% 91.1% 57.9% 1.57× 1.10
Oklahoma City Thunder −1.5 89.0% 85.9% 53.7% 1.60× 1.16
Oklahoma City Thunder −2.5 87.5% 85.9% 50.9% 1.69× 1.16
Oklahoma City Thunder −3.5 85.9% 85.9% 48.4% 1.77× 1.16
Oklahoma City Thunder −4.5 84.2% 81.1% 46.0% 1.77× 1.23
Oklahoma City Thunder −5.5 82.4% 81.1% 42.9% 1.89× 1.23
Oklahoma City Thunder −6.5 80.5% 81.1% 40.0% 2.03× 1.23
Oklahoma City Thunder −7.5 78.5% 76.5% 37.0% 2.06× 1.31
Oklahoma City Thunder −8.5 76.3% 76.5% 34.1% 2.24× 1.31
Oklahoma City Thunder −9.5 74.1% 71.6% 31.3% 2.29× 1.40
Oklahoma City Thunder −10.5 71.7% 71.6% 29.0% 2.47× 1.40
Oklahoma City Thunder −12.5 66.8% 66.7% 24.0% 2.78× 1.50
Oklahoma City Thunder −14.5 61.5% 61.9% 19.9% 3.12× 1.62
Oklahoma City Thunder −16.5 56.0% 57.1% 16.5% 3.46× 1.75
Indiana Pacers +20.5 55.1% 57.1% 89.1% 0.64× 1.75
Oklahoma City Thunder −18.5 50.5% 52.4% 13.6% 3.85× 1.91
Indiana Pacers +18.5 49.5% 47.6% 86.4% 0.55× 2.10
Oklahoma City Thunder −20.5 44.9% 42.9% 10.9% 3.95× 2.33
Indiana Pacers +16.5 44.0% 42.9% 83.5% 0.51× 2.33
Indiana Pacers +14.5 38.5% 38.1% 80.1% 0.48× 2.63
Indiana Pacers +12.5 33.3% 33.3% 76.0% 0.44× 3.01
Indiana Pacers +10.5 28.3% 28.4% 71.0% 0.40× 3.53
Indiana Pacers +9.5 25.9% 28.4% 68.7% 0.41× 3.53
Indiana Pacers +8.5 23.7% 23.5% 65.9% 0.36× 4.25
Indiana Pacers +7.5 21.5% 23.5% 63.0% 0.37× 4.25
Indiana Pacers +6.5 19.5% 18.9% 60.0% 0.31× 5.29
Indiana Pacers +5.5 17.6% 18.9% 57.1% 0.33× 5.29
Indiana Pacers +4.5 15.8% 18.9% 54.1% 0.35× 5.30
Indiana Pacers +3.5 14.1% 14.1% 51.6% 0.27× 7.09
Indiana Pacers +2.5 12.5% 14.1% 49.1% 0.29× 7.09
Indiana Pacers +1.5 11.0% 14.1% 46.3% 0.30× 7.09
Indiana Pacers −1.5 8.5% 8.9% 42.1% 0.21× 11.25
Indiana Pacers −2.5 7.5% 8.9% 39.5% 0.22× 11.25
Indiana Pacers −3.5 6.6% 8.9% 36.9% 0.24× 11.25
Indiana Pacers −4.5 5.7% 8.9% 34.3% 0.26× 11.25
Indiana Pacers −5.5 5.0% 2.6% 32.0% 0.08× 38.72
Indiana Pacers −6.5 4.3% 2.6% 29.4% 0.09× 38.72
Indiana Pacers −7.5 3.7% 2.6% 27.0% 0.10× 38.73
Indiana Pacers −8.5 3.2% 2.6% 24.3% 0.11× 38.73
Indiana Pacers −9.5 2.7% 2.6% 21.9% 0.12× 38.73
Indiana Pacers −10.5 2.3% 2.6% 19.7% 0.13× 38.73
Indiana Pacers −12.5 1.7% 2.6% 16.1% 0.16× 38.73
Indiana Pacers −14.5 1.2% 2.6% 13.0% 0.20× 38.74
Indiana Pacers −16.5 0.8% 2.6% 10.3% 0.25× 38.74
Indiana Pacers −18.5 0.5% 2.6% 8.5% 0.30× 38.74
Indiana Pacers −20.5 0.4% 2.6% 6.9% 0.37× 38.74
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1st half highest scoring 56.8% 52.6% 53.5% 0.98× 1.90
2nd half highest scoring 43.2% 47.4% 46.5% 1.02× 2.11
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 highest scoring 28.3% 27.4% 29.2% 0.94× 3.65
Q3 highest scoring 28.0% 27.4% 27.5% 1.00× 3.65
Q2 highest scoring 26.6% 27.4% 26.3% 1.04× 3.65
Q4 highest scoring 17.1% 18.3% 17.0% 1.08× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oklahoma City Thunder at HT / Oklahoma City Thunder at FT 75.5% 78.0% 40.8% 1.91× 1.28
Indiana Pacers at HT / Oklahoma City Thunder at FT 12.8% 12.2% 13.3% 0.92× 8.17
Indiana Pacers at HT / Indiana Pacers at FT 6.1% 8.3% 30.9% 0.27× 12.09
Oklahoma City Thunder at HT / Indiana Pacers at FT 3.1% 2.1% 12.0% 0.17× 47.74
Level at HT / Oklahoma City Thunder at FT 2.1% 2.1% 1.7% 1.22× 47.76
Level at HT / Indiana Pacers at FT 0.4% 2.1% 1.4% 1.49× 47.78
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oklahoma City Thunder to win 90.3% 90.6% 55.7% 1.63× 1.10
Indiana Pacers to win 9.7% 9.4% 44.3% 0.21× 10.60
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oklahoma City Thunder odd 50.0% 50.5% 50.3% 1.00× 1.98
Indiana Pacers even 50.0% 50.5% 50.3% 1.00× 1.98
Total points odd 50.6% 50.5% 51.0% 0.99× 1.98
Oklahoma City Thunder even 50.0% 49.5% 49.7% 1.00× 2.02
Indiana Pacers odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.7% 1.00× 2.02
Total points even 49.4% 49.5% 49.0% 1.01× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 97.0% 97.0% 94.8% 1.02× 1.03
Match to go to overtime 3.0% 3.0% 5.2% 0.58× 33.46
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oklahoma City Thunder to win Q1 69.5% 72.3% 51.3% 1.41× 1.38
Indiana Pacers to win Q1 26.4% 22.4% 44.1% 0.51× 4.47
Q1 tied 4.1% 4.2% 4.6% 0.90× 23.97
Q1 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 over 50.5 83.0% 82.8% 79.4% 1.04× 1.21
Q1 under 66.5 82.4% 82.8% 86.1% 0.96× 1.21
Q1 over 53.5 72.6% 72.7% 68.2% 1.07× 1.38
Q1 under 63.5 71.8% 72.7% 76.8% 0.95× 1.38
Q1 over 55.5 64.2% 61.7% 59.2% 1.04× 1.62
Q1 under 61.5 63.4% 61.7% 68.5% 0.90× 1.62
Q1 over 57.5 55.1% 58.6% 49.6% 1.18× 1.71
Q1 under 59.5 54.2% 52.7% 60.0% 0.88× 1.90
Q1 over 58.5 50.5% 52.7% 44.3% 1.19× 1.90
Q1 under 58.5 49.5% 47.3% 55.7% 0.85× 2.11
Q1 over 59.5 45.8% 47.3% 40.0% 1.18× 2.11
Q1 under 57.5 44.9% 41.4% 50.4% 0.82× 2.42
Q1 over 61.5 36.6% 38.3% 31.5% 1.22× 2.61
Q1 under 55.5 35.8% 38.3% 40.8% 0.94× 2.61
Q1 over 63.5 28.2% 27.3% 23.2% 1.17× 3.66
Q1 under 53.5 27.4% 27.3% 31.8% 0.86× 3.66
Q1 over 66.5 17.6% 17.2% 13.9% 1.23× 5.83
Q1 under 50.5 17.0% 17.2% 20.6% 0.83× 5.83
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oklahoma City Thunder to win Q2 69.2% 68.4% 49.3% 1.39× 1.46
Indiana Pacers to win Q2 26.7% 27.7% 46.2% 0.60× 3.61
Q2 tied 4.1% 4.4% 4.5% 0.98× 22.91
Q2 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 under 66.5 83.1% 83.0% 86.5% 0.96× 1.21
Q2 over 50.5 81.9% 83.0% 78.1% 1.06× 1.21
Q2 under 63.5 72.9% 72.0% 77.5% 0.93× 1.39
Q2 over 53.5 71.3% 72.0% 65.8% 1.09× 1.39
Q2 under 61.5 64.6% 60.7% 70.4% 0.86× 1.65
Q2 over 55.5 62.8% 60.7% 56.3% 1.08× 1.65
Q2 under 59.5 55.6% 58.2% 61.9% 0.94× 1.72
Q2 over 57.5 53.7% 52.7% 47.3% 1.11× 1.90
Q2 under 58.5 50.9% 52.7% 57.3% 0.92× 1.90
Q2 over 58.5 49.1% 47.3% 42.7% 1.11× 2.11
Q2 under 57.5 46.3% 47.3% 52.7% 0.90× 2.11
Q2 over 59.5 44.4% 41.8% 38.1% 1.10× 2.39
Q2 under 55.5 37.2% 39.3% 43.7% 0.90× 2.55
Q2 over 61.5 35.4% 39.3% 29.6% 1.33× 2.55
Q2 under 53.5 28.7% 28.0% 34.2% 0.82× 3.57
Q2 over 63.5 27.1% 28.0% 22.5% 1.25× 3.57
Q2 under 50.5 18.1% 17.0% 21.9% 0.78× 5.88
Q2 over 66.5 16.9% 17.0% 13.5% 1.26× 5.88
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oklahoma City Thunder to win Q3 69.3% 66.8% 50.9% 1.31× 1.50
Indiana Pacers to win Q3 26.7% 28.8% 44.3% 0.65× 3.47
Q3 tied 4.0% 4.3% 4.9% 0.88× 23.45
Q3 total 32
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 under 67.5 85.1% 87.2% 87.0% 1.00× 1.15
Q3 over 51.5 80.6% 82.3% 76.1% 1.08× 1.22
Q3 under 66.5 83.0% 82.2% 84.7% 0.97× 1.22
Q3 over 50.5 82.5% 82.2% 79.7% 1.03× 1.22
Q3 under 64.5 75.3% 77.3% 79.2% 0.98× 1.29
Q3 under 63.5 72.6% 72.5% 75.9% 0.95× 1.38
Q3 over 53.5 71.9% 72.5% 68.3% 1.06× 1.38
Q3 over 54.5 69.4% 67.8% 63.9% 1.06× 1.48
Q3 under 62.5 67.2% 67.8% 71.9% 0.94× 1.48
Q3 under 61.5 64.2% 62.6% 67.7% 0.92× 1.60
Q3 over 55.5 63.5% 62.6% 59.9% 1.05× 1.60
Q3 over 56.5 60.6% 61.9% 55.0% 1.13× 1.61
Q3 under 60.5 58.2% 58.4% 63.5% 0.92× 1.71
Q3 over 57.5 54.3% 52.6% 50.2% 1.05× 1.90
Q3 under 59.5 53.5% 52.3% 59.0% 0.89× 1.91
Q3 over 58.5 51.2% 52.3% 45.2% 1.16× 1.91
Q3 under 58.5 48.8% 47.7% 54.8% 0.87× 2.10
Q3 over 59.5 46.5% 47.7% 41.0% 1.16× 2.10
Q3 under 57.5 45.7% 47.4% 49.8% 0.95× 2.11
Q3 over 60.5 41.8% 41.6% 36.5% 1.14× 2.40
Q3 under 56.5 39.4% 38.1% 45.0% 0.85× 2.63
Q3 under 55.5 36.5% 37.4% 40.1% 0.93× 2.67
Q3 over 61.5 35.8% 37.4% 32.3% 1.16× 2.67
Q3 over 62.5 32.8% 32.2% 28.1% 1.15× 3.10
Q3 under 54.5 30.6% 32.2% 36.1% 0.89× 3.11
Q3 under 53.5 28.1% 27.5% 31.7% 0.87× 3.64
Q3 over 63.5 27.4% 27.5% 24.1% 1.14× 3.64
Q3 over 64.5 24.7% 22.7% 20.8% 1.09× 4.40
Q3 under 50.5 17.5% 17.8% 20.3% 0.88× 5.62
Q3 over 66.5 17.0% 17.8% 15.3% 1.16× 5.63
Q3 under 51.5 19.4% 17.7% 23.9% 0.74× 5.65
Q3 over 67.5 14.9% 12.8% 13.0% 0.99× 7.83
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oklahoma City Thunder to win Q4 68.9% 60.7% 48.3% 1.26× 1.65
Indiana Pacers to win Q4 26.9% 33.3% 46.4% 0.72× 3.00
Q4 tied 4.2% 5.2% 5.3% 0.97× 19.29
Q4 total 32
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 under 64.5 83.8% 82.0% 86.3% 0.95× 1.22
Q4 over 48.5 80.5% 82.0% 75.5% 1.09× 1.22
Q4 over 47.5 82.4% 81.9% 79.0% 1.04× 1.22
Q4 under 63.5 81.7% 81.9% 83.7% 0.98× 1.22
Q4 over 50.5 72.2% 72.3% 68.5% 1.05× 1.38
Q4 under 60.5 71.2% 72.3% 74.2% 0.97× 1.38
Q4 under 61.5 73.9% 71.5% 77.5% 0.92× 1.40
Q4 over 51.5 69.6% 67.4% 64.7% 1.04× 1.48
Q4 under 59.5 65.8% 67.4% 70.2% 0.96× 1.48
Q4 over 52.5 64.0% 61.7% 60.4% 1.02× 1.62
Q4 under 58.5 62.9% 61.6% 66.2% 0.93× 1.62
Q4 over 53.5 61.2% 61.4% 55.7% 1.10× 1.63
Q4 under 57.5 57.1% 58.4% 61.9% 0.94× 1.71
Q4 over 54.5 55.1% 57.4% 51.4% 1.12× 1.74
Q4 under 56.5 52.5% 52.5% 57.2% 0.92× 1.91
Q4 over 55.5 52.1% 52.5% 47.1% 1.11× 1.91
Q4 under 55.5 47.9% 47.5% 52.9% 0.90× 2.11
Q4 over 56.5 47.5% 47.5% 42.8% 1.11× 2.11
Q4 under 54.5 44.9% 42.6% 48.6% 0.88× 2.35
Q4 over 57.5 42.9% 41.6% 38.1% 1.09× 2.40
Q4 under 53.5 38.8% 38.6% 44.3% 0.87× 2.59
Q4 over 58.5 37.1% 38.4% 33.8% 1.13× 2.61
Q4 under 52.5 36.0% 38.3% 39.6% 0.97× 2.61
Q4 over 59.5 34.2% 32.6% 29.8% 1.09× 3.07
Q4 under 51.5 30.4% 32.6% 35.3% 0.92× 3.07
Q4 over 61.5 26.2% 28.5% 22.5% 1.27× 3.51
Q4 over 60.5 28.8% 27.7% 25.8% 1.08× 3.61
Q4 under 50.5 27.8% 27.7% 31.5% 0.88× 3.61
Q4 over 63.5 18.3% 18.1% 16.3% 1.11× 5.53
Q4 under 47.5 17.6% 18.1% 21.0% 0.86× 5.53
Q4 under 48.5 19.5% 18.0% 24.5% 0.73× 5.56
Q4 over 64.5 16.2% 18.0% 13.7% 1.31× 5.56
Team total 68
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Indiana Pacers under 116.5 80.6% 80.7% 61.5% 1.31× 1.24
Oklahoma City Thunder under 135.5 81.1% 80.7% 94.4% 0.85× 1.24
Indiana Pacers over 96.5 80.4% 80.7% 90.8% 0.89× 1.24
Indiana Pacers under 119.5 80.5% 80.3% 70.3% 1.14× 1.25
Oklahoma City Thunder under 131.5 80.7% 80.3% 89.8% 0.89× 1.25
Oklahoma City Thunder over 111.5 78.7% 78.3% 61.1% 1.28× 1.28
Oklahoma City Thunder over 115.5 79.5% 75.1% 48.4% 1.55× 1.33
Indiana Pacers over 102.5 71.0% 71.8% 79.7% 0.90× 1.39
Oklahoma City Thunder over 114.5 70.8% 71.8% 51.4% 1.40× 1.39
Oklahoma City Thunder under 132.5 73.4% 70.7% 91.2% 0.78× 1.41
Indiana Pacers over 99.5 72.5% 70.7% 85.9% 0.82× 1.41
Indiana Pacers under 113.5 72.8% 70.7% 52.0% 1.36× 1.41
Oklahoma City Thunder over 118.5 71.5% 70.7% 39.7% 1.78× 1.41
Indiana Pacers under 114.5 67.2% 66.6% 55.5% 1.20× 1.50
Indiana Pacers over 104.5 65.1% 66.6% 75.0% 0.89× 1.50
Oklahoma City Thunder under 130.5 67.6% 66.4% 88.6% 0.75× 1.51
Indiana Pacers over 101.5 66.5% 66.4% 82.0% 0.81× 1.51
Indiana Pacers under 111.5 66.8% 66.4% 45.4% 1.46× 1.51
Oklahoma City Thunder over 120.5 65.4% 66.4% 33.7% 1.97× 1.51
Oklahoma City Thunder under 128.5 61.2% 61.2% 85.5% 0.72× 1.63
Indiana Pacers under 109.5 60.3% 61.2% 39.1% 1.57× 1.63
Indiana Pacers over 103.5 60.0% 61.2% 77.5% 0.79× 1.63
Oklahoma City Thunder over 116.5 64.8% 61.2% 45.3% 1.35× 1.63
Indiana Pacers under 112.5 61.0% 61.2% 48.5% 1.26× 1.64
Oklahoma City Thunder over 122.5 59.0% 57.1% 28.2% 2.03× 1.75
Indiana Pacers under 107.5 53.6% 52.3% 33.4% 1.57× 1.91
Oklahoma City Thunder under 126.5 54.6% 52.3% 81.5% 0.64× 1.91
Oklahoma City Thunder under 125.5 51.2% 52.3% 79.1% 0.66× 1.91
Indiana Pacers over 105.5 53.3% 52.3% 71.9% 0.73× 1.91
Oklahoma City Thunder over 124.5 52.2% 52.3% 23.2% 2.25× 1.91
Indiana Pacers under 106.5 50.1% 52.3% 31.1% 1.68× 1.91
Indiana Pacers under 110.5 54.5% 52.2% 42.1% 1.24× 1.91
Indiana Pacers over 108.5 52.1% 52.2% 64.0% 0.82× 1.91
Oklahoma City Thunder under 121.5 51.3% 52.2% 69.6% 0.75× 1.91
Oklahoma City Thunder over 121.5 48.7% 47.8% 30.4% 1.57× 2.09
Indiana Pacers under 108.5 47.9% 47.8% 36.0% 1.33× 2.09
Indiana Pacers over 110.5 45.5% 47.8% 57.9% 0.83× 2.09
Indiana Pacers over 106.5 49.9% 47.7% 68.9% 0.69× 2.09
Oklahoma City Thunder over 125.5 48.8% 47.7% 20.9% 2.28× 2.09
Indiana Pacers under 105.5 46.7% 47.7% 28.1% 1.70× 2.09
Oklahoma City Thunder under 124.5 47.8% 47.7% 76.8% 0.62× 2.09
Indiana Pacers over 107.5 46.4% 47.7% 66.6% 0.72× 2.09
Oklahoma City Thunder over 126.5 45.4% 47.7% 18.5% 2.59× 2.09
Oklahoma City Thunder under 122.5 41.0% 42.9% 71.8% 0.60× 2.33
Indiana Pacers over 112.5 39.0% 38.8% 51.5% 0.75× 2.58
Oklahoma City Thunder under 116.5 35.2% 38.8% 54.7% 0.71× 2.58
Indiana Pacers over 109.5 39.7% 38.8% 60.9% 0.64× 2.58
Indiana Pacers under 103.5 40.0% 38.8% 22.5% 1.72× 2.58
Oklahoma City Thunder over 128.5 38.8% 38.8% 14.5% 2.68× 2.58
Oklahoma City Thunder under 120.5 34.6% 33.6% 66.3% 0.51× 2.98
Indiana Pacers under 101.5 33.5% 33.6% 18.0% 1.86× 2.98
Indiana Pacers over 111.5 33.2% 33.6% 54.6% 0.62× 2.98
Oklahoma City Thunder over 130.5 32.4% 33.6% 11.4% 2.95× 2.98
Indiana Pacers under 104.5 34.9% 33.4% 25.0% 1.34× 2.99
Indiana Pacers over 114.5 32.8% 33.4% 44.5% 0.75× 3.00
Oklahoma City Thunder under 118.5 28.5% 29.3% 60.3% 0.49× 3.42
Indiana Pacers under 99.5 27.5% 29.3% 14.1% 2.07× 3.42
Indiana Pacers over 113.5 27.2% 29.3% 48.0% 0.61× 3.42
Oklahoma City Thunder over 132.5 26.6% 29.3% 8.8% 3.32× 3.42
Oklahoma City Thunder under 114.5 29.2% 28.2% 48.6% 0.58× 3.55
Indiana Pacers under 102.5 29.0% 28.2% 20.3% 1.39× 3.55
Oklahoma City Thunder under 115.5 20.5% 24.9% 51.6% 0.48× 4.02
Oklahoma City Thunder under 111.5 21.3% 21.7% 38.9% 0.56× 4.60
Indiana Pacers over 119.5 19.5% 19.7% 29.7% 0.67× 5.07
Oklahoma City Thunder over 131.5 19.3% 19.7% 10.2% 1.93× 5.07
Indiana Pacers over 116.5 19.4% 19.3% 38.5% 0.50× 5.18
Oklahoma City Thunder over 135.5 18.9% 19.3% 5.6% 3.47× 5.18
Indiana Pacers under 96.5 19.6% 19.3% 9.2% 2.09× 5.18
Total points 56
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 250.5 points 86.0% 85.5% 86.1% 0.99× 1.17
Over 210.5 points 85.4% 85.5% 81.4% 1.05× 1.17
Over 211.5 points 86.3% 85.0% 79.7% 1.07× 1.18
Under 251.5 points 86.0% 85.0% 87.2% 0.98× 1.18
Under 245.5 points 79.2% 78.1% 80.9% 0.97× 1.28
Over 215.5 points 78.4% 78.1% 73.4% 1.06× 1.28
Over 216.5 points 79.4% 75.6% 71.6% 1.06× 1.32
Under 246.5 points 79.1% 75.6% 82.0% 0.92× 1.32
Under 240.5 points 70.7% 71.0% 74.0% 0.96× 1.41
Under 241.5 points 70.5% 70.8% 75.5% 0.94× 1.41
Over 221.5 points 70.9% 70.8% 62.2% 1.14× 1.41
Over 220.5 points 69.8% 66.6% 64.2% 1.04× 1.50
Under 237.5 points 65.1% 66.6% 69.3% 0.96× 1.50
Over 224.5 points 65.1% 65.9% 56.5% 1.17× 1.52
Over 223.5 points 64.0% 61.8% 58.3% 1.06× 1.62
Under 235.5 points 61.1% 61.7% 65.3% 0.95× 1.62
Under 238.5 points 64.6% 61.5% 70.9% 0.87× 1.63
Over 226.5 points 61.0% 61.5% 52.7% 1.17× 1.63
Under 236.5 points 60.5% 61.5% 67.3% 0.91× 1.63
Over 228.5 points 56.7% 56.5% 48.7% 1.16× 1.77
Under 234.5 points 56.2% 56.5% 63.3% 0.89× 1.77
Over 225.5 points 59.9% 56.0% 54.7% 1.02× 1.79
Under 233.5 points 56.9% 56.0% 61.4% 0.91× 1.79
Over 227.5 points 55.8% 56.0% 50.6% 1.11× 1.79
Under 232.5 points 51.9% 52.3% 59.4% 0.88× 1.91
Over 230.5 points 52.4% 52.3% 44.6% 1.17× 1.91
Over 231.5 points 50.2% 52.3% 42.6% 1.23× 1.91
Over 229.5 points 51.5% 52.2% 46.7% 1.12× 1.92
Under 229.5 points 48.5% 47.8% 53.3% 0.90× 2.09
Under 231.5 points 49.8% 47.7% 57.4% 0.83× 2.10
Over 232.5 points 48.1% 47.7% 40.6% 1.17× 2.10
Under 230.5 points 47.6% 47.7% 55.4% 0.86× 2.10
Under 227.5 points 44.2% 44.0% 49.4% 0.89× 2.27
Over 233.5 points 43.1% 44.0% 38.6% 1.14× 2.27
Under 225.5 points 40.1% 44.0% 45.3% 0.97× 2.27
Under 228.5 points 43.3% 43.5% 51.3% 0.85× 2.30
Over 234.5 points 43.8% 43.5% 36.7% 1.19× 2.30
Over 236.5 points 39.5% 38.5% 32.7% 1.18× 2.60
Under 226.5 points 39.0% 38.5% 47.3% 0.82× 2.60
Over 238.5 points 35.4% 38.5% 29.1% 1.32× 2.60
Over 235.5 points 38.9% 38.3% 34.7% 1.10× 2.61
Under 223.5 points 36.0% 38.2% 41.7% 0.92× 2.62
Under 224.5 points 34.9% 34.1% 43.5% 0.79× 2.93
Over 237.5 points 34.9% 33.4% 30.7% 1.09× 2.99
Under 220.5 points 30.2% 33.4% 35.8% 0.93× 3.00
Over 241.5 points 29.5% 29.2% 24.5% 1.19× 3.43
Under 221.5 points 29.1% 29.2% 37.8% 0.77× 3.43
Over 240.5 points 29.3% 29.0% 26.0% 1.12× 3.45
Over 246.5 points 20.9% 24.4% 18.0% 1.36× 4.10
Under 216.5 points 20.6% 24.4% 28.4% 0.86× 4.10
Under 215.5 points 21.6% 21.9% 26.6% 0.82× 4.57
Over 245.5 points 20.8% 21.9% 19.1% 1.14× 4.57
Over 251.5 points 14.0% 15.0% 12.8% 1.17× 6.68
Under 211.5 points 13.7% 15.0% 20.3% 0.74× 6.68
Under 210.5 points 14.6% 14.5% 18.6% 0.78× 6.88
Over 250.5 points 14.0% 14.5% 13.9% 1.05× 6.88
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oklahoma City Thunder to win both halves 60.3% 60.6% 25.2% 2.40× 1.65
Indiana Pacers to win both halves 2.6% 3.0% 17.8% 0.17× 33.68
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Oklahoma City Thunder by 26+ 31.7% 37.6% 6.2% 6.08× 2.66
Oklahoma City Thunder by 16-20 13.9% 12.3% 7.3% 1.68× 8.11
Oklahoma City Thunder by 21-25 13.2% 12.3% 4.7% 2.62× 8.11
Oklahoma City Thunder by 11-15 12.9% 12.3% 10.8% 1.14× 8.11
Oklahoma City Thunder by 6-10 10.7% 12.3% 13.9% 0.88× 8.11
Oklahoma City Thunder by 1-5 7.9% 7.5% 12.8% 0.58× 13.40
Indiana Pacers by 1-5 4.7% 2.0% 12.3% 0.17× 49.29
Indiana Pacers by 6-10 2.7% 2.0% 12.3% 0.16× 49.30
Indiana Pacers by 11-15 1.3% 2.0% 8.0% 0.25× 49.32
Indiana Pacers by 16-20 0.6% 2.0% 4.9% 0.42× 49.32
Indiana Pacers by 21-25 0.2% 2.0% 3.0% 0.67× 49.33
Indiana Pacers by 26+ 0.1% 2.0% 3.9% 0.53× 49.33
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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