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Orlando Magic v Minnesota Timberwolves — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 23 October 2026 · NBA · 2027

NBA results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Orlando Magic win
51.1%
Draw
0.0%
Minnesota Timberwolves win
48.9%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 112.71–112.33 113-112 0% 49% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Orlando Magic to score 100+ 86.8% 85.0% 89.3% 0.95× 1.18
Minnesota Timberwolves to score 100+ 86.3% 85.0% 85.9% 0.99× 1.18
Both sides to score 100+ 75.9% 76.9% 77.5% 0.99× 1.30
Orlando Magic to score 110+ 60.7% 61.8% 67.0% 0.92× 1.62
Minnesota Timberwolves to score 110+ 59.5% 56.4% 60.9% 0.93× 1.77
Orlando Magic to score 120+ 28.3% 27.5% 36.5% 0.75× 3.63
Minnesota Timberwolves to score 120+ 27.1% 27.5% 29.7% 0.93× 3.64
Orlando Magic to score 130+ 7.8% 8.8% 12.8% 0.69× 11.37
Minnesota Timberwolves to score 130+ 7.1% 8.8% 10.0% 0.88× 11.37
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Orlando Magic to win H1 48.9% 47.3% 52.8% 0.90× 2.11
Minnesota Timberwolves to win H1 47.6% 47.3% 44.1% 1.07× 2.11
H1 tied 3.5% 3.9% 3.1% 1.25× 25.86
H1 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 over 102.5 82.0% 83.2% 83.0% 1.00× 1.20
H1 under 126.5 81.9% 83.2% 82.8% 1.01× 1.20
H1 over 101.5 82.3% 82.5% 84.9% 0.97× 1.21
H1 under 125.5 82.0% 82.5% 80.7% 1.02× 1.21
H1 over 106.5 73.0% 74.0% 73.3% 1.01× 1.35
H1 under 122.5 72.8% 74.0% 74.0% 1.00× 1.35
H1 over 105.5 73.3% 73.5% 75.8% 0.97× 1.36
H1 under 121.5 72.9% 73.5% 71.2% 1.03× 1.36
H1 over 108.5 65.2% 67.4% 67.7% 1.00× 1.48
H1 over 109.5 64.9% 63.3% 65.0% 0.97× 1.58
H1 under 119.5 64.7% 63.3% 65.9% 0.96× 1.58
H1 under 118.5 64.8% 62.7% 62.9% 1.00× 1.59
H1 over 110.5 59.3% 58.2% 61.9% 0.94× 1.72
H1 under 116.5 58.9% 58.2% 56.6% 1.03× 1.72
H1 over 111.5 59.2% 58.2% 59.0% 0.99× 1.72
H1 under 117.5 58.9% 58.2% 59.6% 0.98× 1.72
H1 over 112.5 53.3% 52.6% 55.8% 0.94× 1.90
H1 under 114.5 52.8% 52.6% 50.4% 1.05× 1.90
H1 over 113.5 50.2% 52.6% 52.4% 1.00× 1.90
H1 under 115.5 52.9% 52.5% 53.6% 0.98× 1.90
H1 over 115.5 47.1% 47.5% 46.4% 1.02× 2.11
H1 under 113.5 49.8% 47.4% 47.6% 0.99× 2.11
H1 under 112.5 46.7% 47.4% 44.2% 1.07× 2.11
H1 over 114.5 47.2% 47.4% 49.6% 0.95× 2.11
H1 over 117.5 41.1% 41.8% 40.4% 1.04× 2.39
H1 under 111.5 40.9% 41.8% 41.0% 1.02× 2.39
H1 over 116.5 41.1% 41.8% 43.4% 0.96× 2.39
H1 under 110.5 40.7% 41.8% 38.1% 1.10× 2.39
H1 over 118.5 35.2% 37.3% 37.1% 1.00× 2.68
H1 over 119.5 35.3% 36.7% 34.1% 1.08× 2.72
H1 under 109.5 35.1% 36.7% 35.0% 1.05× 2.72
H1 under 108.5 34.8% 32.6% 32.3% 1.01× 3.07
H1 over 121.5 27.1% 26.5% 28.8% 0.92× 3.77
H1 under 105.5 26.7% 26.5% 24.2% 1.09× 3.77
H1 over 122.5 27.2% 26.0% 26.0% 1.00× 3.84
H1 under 106.5 27.0% 26.0% 26.7% 0.98× 3.84
H1 over 125.5 18.0% 17.5% 19.3% 0.90× 5.73
H1 under 101.5 17.7% 17.5% 15.1% 1.16× 5.73
H1 over 126.5 18.1% 16.8% 17.2% 0.98× 5.96
H1 under 102.5 18.0% 16.8% 17.0% 0.99× 5.96
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Orlando Magic to win H2 48.9% 47.1% 51.6% 0.91× 2.12
Minnesota Timberwolves to win H2 47.6% 47.1% 44.7% 1.05× 2.12
H2 tied 3.5% 3.9% 3.7% 1.06× 25.36
H2 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 over 99.5 82.3% 81.8% 84.4% 0.97× 1.22
H2 under 123.5 82.5% 81.8% 76.9% 1.06× 1.22
H2 under 124.5 82.4% 81.5% 79.1% 1.03× 1.23
H2 over 100.5 82.0% 81.5% 82.4% 0.99× 1.23
H2 under 120.5 73.3% 72.5% 69.3% 1.05× 1.38
H2 over 104.5 72.8% 72.5% 73.9% 0.98× 1.38
H2 over 103.5 73.2% 72.2% 76.2% 0.95× 1.39
H2 under 119.5 73.4% 72.2% 66.4% 1.09× 1.39
H2 under 116.5 65.2% 66.4% 58.1% 1.14× 1.51
H2 under 117.5 65.2% 64.4% 61.1% 1.05× 1.55
H2 over 107.5 64.7% 62.6% 66.2% 0.95× 1.60
H2 over 106.5 65.0% 61.6% 68.8% 0.90× 1.62
H2 under 115.5 59.4% 58.0% 55.4% 1.05× 1.72
H2 over 109.5 58.8% 58.0% 60.9% 0.95× 1.72
H2 over 108.5 59.1% 57.3% 63.8% 0.90× 1.74
H2 under 114.5 59.3% 57.3% 52.5% 1.09× 1.74
H2 over 110.5 53.0% 52.4% 58.1% 0.90× 1.91
H2 under 112.5 53.2% 52.4% 47.4% 1.10× 1.91
H2 under 111.5 50.1% 52.4% 44.7% 1.17× 1.91
H2 under 113.5 53.3% 52.1% 50.1% 1.04× 1.92
H2 over 113.5 46.7% 48.0% 49.9% 0.96× 2.09
H2 over 111.5 49.9% 47.6% 55.3% 0.86× 2.10
H2 under 110.5 47.0% 47.6% 41.9% 1.14× 2.10
H2 over 112.5 46.8% 47.6% 52.6% 0.91× 2.10
H2 under 108.5 40.9% 42.7% 36.2% 1.18× 2.35
H2 over 114.5 40.7% 42.7% 47.5% 0.90× 2.35
H2 under 109.5 41.2% 42.0% 39.1% 1.07× 2.38
H2 over 115.5 40.6% 42.0% 44.6% 0.94× 2.38
H2 under 106.5 35.0% 38.4% 31.2% 1.23× 2.61
H2 under 107.5 35.3% 37.4% 33.8% 1.11× 2.67
H2 over 117.5 34.8% 35.6% 38.9% 0.91× 2.81
H2 over 116.5 34.8% 33.6% 41.9% 0.80× 2.97
H2 under 103.5 26.8% 27.8% 23.8% 1.17× 3.59
H2 over 119.5 26.6% 27.8% 33.6% 0.83× 3.59
H2 under 104.5 27.2% 27.5% 26.1% 1.05× 3.63
H2 over 120.5 26.7% 27.5% 30.7% 0.90× 3.63
H2 under 100.5 18.0% 18.5% 17.6% 1.05× 5.41
H2 over 124.5 17.6% 18.5% 20.9% 0.89× 5.41
H2 under 99.5 17.7% 18.2% 15.6% 1.17× 5.50
H2 over 123.5 17.5% 18.2% 23.1% 0.79× 5.50
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Orlando Magic leading at half time 48.9% 47.3% 52.8% 0.90× 2.12
Minnesota Timberwolves leading at half time 47.6% 47.2% 44.1% 1.07× 2.12
Level at half time 3.5% 3.8% 3.1% 1.22× 26.41
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Orlando Magic +20.5 92.3% 91.1% 93.1% 0.98× 1.10
Minnesota Timberwolves +20.5 91.5% 91.1% 89.1% 1.02× 1.10
Orlando Magic +18.5 90.1% 91.1% 91.5% 1.00× 1.10
Minnesota Timberwolves +18.5 89.1% 85.9% 86.4% 0.99× 1.16
Orlando Magic +16.5 87.4% 85.9% 89.7% 0.96× 1.16
Minnesota Timberwolves +16.5 86.3% 85.9% 83.5% 1.03× 1.16
Orlando Magic +14.5 84.3% 81.1% 87.0% 0.93× 1.23
Minnesota Timberwolves +14.5 83.0% 81.1% 80.1% 1.01× 1.23
Orlando Magic +12.5 80.7% 81.1% 83.9% 0.97× 1.23
Minnesota Timberwolves +12.5 79.3% 76.5% 76.0% 1.01× 1.31
Orlando Magic +10.5 76.7% 76.5% 80.3% 0.95× 1.31
Minnesota Timberwolves +10.5 75.1% 76.5% 71.0% 1.08× 1.31
Orlando Magic +9.5 74.5% 71.6% 78.1% 0.92× 1.40
Minnesota Timberwolves +9.5 72.8% 71.6% 68.7% 1.04× 1.40
Orlando Magic +8.5 72.2% 71.6% 75.7% 0.95× 1.40
Minnesota Timberwolves +8.5 70.4% 71.6% 65.9% 1.09× 1.40
Orlando Magic +7.5 69.8% 66.7% 73.0% 0.91× 1.50
Minnesota Timberwolves +7.5 68.0% 66.7% 63.0% 1.06× 1.50
Orlando Magic +6.5 67.3% 66.7% 70.6% 0.95× 1.50
Minnesota Timberwolves +6.5 65.4% 66.7% 60.0% 1.11× 1.50
Orlando Magic +5.5 64.8% 61.9% 68.0% 0.91× 1.62
Minnesota Timberwolves +5.5 62.8% 61.9% 57.1% 1.08× 1.62
Orlando Magic +4.5 62.1% 61.9% 65.7% 0.94× 1.62
Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 60.1% 61.9% 54.1% 1.15× 1.62
Orlando Magic +3.5 59.4% 57.1% 63.1% 0.90× 1.75
Orlando Magic +2.5 56.7% 57.1% 60.5% 0.94× 1.75
Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5 57.4% 57.1% 51.6% 1.11× 1.75
Minnesota Timberwolves +2.5 54.6% 52.4% 49.1% 1.07× 1.91
Orlando Magic +1.5 53.9% 52.4% 57.9% 0.91× 1.91
Minnesota Timberwolves +1.5 51.8% 52.4% 46.3% 1.13× 1.91
Orlando Magic −1.5 48.2% 47.6% 53.7% 0.89× 2.10
Minnesota Timberwolves −1.5 46.1% 47.6% 42.1% 1.13× 2.10
Orlando Magic −2.5 45.4% 47.6% 50.9% 0.93× 2.10
Minnesota Timberwolves −2.5 43.3% 42.9% 39.5% 1.09× 2.33
Orlando Magic −3.5 42.6% 42.9% 48.4% 0.89× 2.33
Minnesota Timberwolves −3.5 40.6% 42.9% 36.9% 1.16× 2.33
Orlando Magic −4.5 39.9% 38.1% 46.0% 0.83× 2.63
Minnesota Timberwolves −4.5 37.9% 38.1% 34.3% 1.11× 2.63
Orlando Magic −5.5 37.2% 38.1% 42.9% 0.89× 2.63
Minnesota Timberwolves −5.5 35.2% 38.1% 32.0% 1.19× 2.63
Orlando Magic −6.5 34.6% 33.3% 40.0% 0.83× 3.01
Minnesota Timberwolves −6.5 32.7% 33.3% 29.4% 1.13× 3.01
Orlando Magic −7.5 32.0% 33.3% 37.0% 0.90× 3.01
Minnesota Timberwolves −7.5 30.2% 33.3% 27.0% 1.23× 3.01
Orlando Magic −8.5 29.6% 28.4% 34.1% 0.83× 3.53
Minnesota Timberwolves −8.5 27.8% 28.4% 24.3% 1.17× 3.53
Orlando Magic −9.5 27.2% 28.4% 31.3% 0.91× 3.53
Minnesota Timberwolves −9.5 25.5% 28.4% 21.9% 1.30× 3.53
Orlando Magic −10.5 24.9% 23.5% 29.0% 0.81× 4.25
Minnesota Timberwolves −10.5 23.3% 23.5% 19.7% 1.19× 4.25
Orlando Magic −12.5 20.7% 23.5% 24.0% 0.98× 4.25
Minnesota Timberwolves −12.5 19.3% 18.9% 16.1% 1.17× 5.29
Orlando Magic −14.5 17.0% 18.9% 19.9% 0.95× 5.29
Minnesota Timberwolves −14.5 15.7% 18.9% 13.0% 1.45× 5.30
Orlando Magic −16.5 13.7% 14.1% 16.5% 0.86× 7.09
Minnesota Timberwolves −16.5 12.6% 14.1% 10.3% 1.37× 7.09
Orlando Magic −18.5 10.9% 14.1% 13.6% 1.04× 7.09
Minnesota Timberwolves −18.5 9.9% 8.9% 8.5% 1.04× 11.25
Orlando Magic −20.5 8.5% 8.9% 10.9% 0.82× 11.25
Minnesota Timberwolves −20.5 7.7% 8.9% 6.9% 1.29× 11.25
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1st half highest scoring 56.5% 52.6% 53.5% 0.98× 1.90
2nd half highest scoring 43.5% 47.4% 46.5% 1.02× 2.11
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 highest scoring 28.2% 27.4% 29.2% 0.94× 3.65
Q3 highest scoring 27.9% 27.4% 27.5% 1.00× 3.65
Q2 highest scoring 26.6% 27.4% 26.3% 1.04× 3.65
Q4 highest scoring 17.3% 18.3% 17.0% 1.08× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Orlando Magic at HT / Orlando Magic at FT 36.5% 37.7% 40.8% 0.93× 2.65
Minnesota Timberwolves at HT / Minnesota Timberwolves at FT 34.8% 33.3% 30.9% 1.08× 3.01
Minnesota Timberwolves at HT / Orlando Magic at FT 12.8% 12.2% 13.3% 0.92× 8.17
Orlando Magic at HT / Minnesota Timberwolves at FT 12.4% 12.2% 12.0% 1.02× 8.17
Level at HT / Orlando Magic at FT 1.8% 2.1% 1.7% 1.22× 47.76
Level at HT / Minnesota Timberwolves at FT 1.7% 2.1% 1.4% 1.50× 47.76
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Orlando Magic to win 51.1% 51.0% 55.7% 0.91× 1.96
Minnesota Timberwolves to win 48.9% 49.0% 44.3% 1.11× 2.04
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Total points odd 51.4% 50.5% 51.0% 0.99× 1.98
Orlando Magic even 50.0% 50.5% 49.7% 1.02× 1.98
Minnesota Timberwolves even 50.0% 50.5% 50.3% 1.00× 1.98
Orlando Magic odd 50.0% 49.5% 50.3% 0.98× 2.02
Minnesota Timberwolves odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.7% 1.00× 2.02
Total points even 48.6% 49.5% 49.0% 1.01× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 92.8% 94.0% 94.8% 0.99× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 7.2% 6.0% 5.2% 1.16× 16.65
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Orlando Magic to win Q1 48.1% 47.6% 51.3% 0.93× 2.10
Minnesota Timberwolves to win Q1 47.1% 47.6% 44.1% 1.08× 2.10
Q1 tied 4.8% 4.2% 4.6% 0.90× 23.94
Q1 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 under 65.5 84.3% 82.8% 83.2% 1.00× 1.21
Q1 over 49.5 80.9% 82.8% 82.7% 1.00× 1.21
Q1 under 62.5 74.4% 72.7% 72.9% 1.00× 1.38
Q1 over 52.5 69.9% 67.6% 72.4% 0.93× 1.48
Q1 under 60.5 66.3% 67.6% 64.5% 1.05× 1.48
Q1 over 54.5 61.3% 61.7% 63.3% 0.98× 1.62
Q1 under 58.5 57.3% 58.6% 55.7% 1.05× 1.71
Q1 under 57.5 52.7% 52.7% 50.4% 1.04× 1.90
Q1 over 56.5 52.0% 52.7% 54.6% 0.96× 1.90
Q1 under 56.5 48.0% 47.3% 45.4% 1.04× 2.11
Q1 over 57.5 47.3% 47.3% 49.6% 0.96× 2.11
Q1 over 58.5 42.7% 41.4% 44.3% 0.93× 2.42
Q1 under 54.5 38.7% 38.3% 36.7% 1.04× 2.61
Q1 over 60.5 33.7% 32.4% 35.5% 0.91× 3.08
Q1 under 52.5 30.1% 32.4% 27.6% 1.17× 3.08
Q1 over 62.5 25.6% 27.3% 27.1% 1.01× 3.66
Q1 under 49.5 19.1% 17.2% 17.3% 0.99× 5.83
Q1 over 65.5 15.7% 17.2% 16.8% 1.02× 5.83
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Orlando Magic to win Q2 48.1% 47.0% 49.3% 0.95× 2.13
Minnesota Timberwolves to win Q2 47.2% 47.0% 46.2% 1.02× 2.13
Q2 tied 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% 0.98× 22.88
Q2 total 32
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 under 65.5 83.5% 83.1% 83.6% 0.99× 1.20
Q2 over 49.5 81.2% 83.1% 81.8% 1.02× 1.20
Q2 over 48.5 83.0% 83.0% 84.7% 0.98× 1.21
Q2 under 64.5 82.1% 83.0% 80.9% 1.03× 1.21
Q2 under 62.5 73.4% 73.0% 74.4% 0.98× 1.37
Q2 over 52.5 70.5% 73.0% 70.3% 1.04× 1.37
Q2 over 51.5 72.6% 72.0% 74.2% 0.97× 1.39
Q2 under 61.5 71.5% 72.0% 70.4% 1.02× 1.39
Q2 under 60.5 65.3% 67.6% 65.7% 1.03× 1.48
Q2 over 54.5 62.0% 62.0% 61.1% 1.01× 1.61
Q2 over 53.5 64.3% 60.7% 65.8% 0.92× 1.65
Q2 under 59.5 63.1% 60.7% 61.9% 0.98× 1.65
Q2 over 55.5 55.3% 58.2% 56.3% 1.03× 1.72
Q2 under 58.5 56.4% 57.8% 57.3% 1.01× 1.73
Q2 under 57.5 54.0% 52.7% 52.7% 1.00× 1.90
Q2 over 56.5 50.7% 52.7% 51.7% 1.02× 1.90
Q2 under 56.5 49.3% 47.3% 48.3% 0.98× 2.11
Q2 over 57.5 46.0% 47.3% 47.3% 1.00× 2.11
Q2 over 58.5 43.6% 42.2% 42.7% 0.99× 2.37
Q2 under 55.5 44.7% 41.8% 43.7% 0.96× 2.39
Q2 over 59.5 36.9% 39.3% 38.1% 1.03× 2.55
Q2 under 53.5 35.7% 39.3% 34.2% 1.15× 2.55
Q2 under 54.5 38.0% 38.0% 38.9% 0.98× 2.63
Q2 over 60.5 34.7% 32.4% 34.3% 0.94× 3.09
Q2 over 61.5 28.5% 28.0% 29.6% 0.95× 3.57
Q2 under 51.5 27.4% 28.0% 25.8% 1.09× 3.57
Q2 under 52.5 29.5% 27.0% 29.7% 0.91× 3.71
Q2 over 62.5 26.6% 27.0% 25.6% 1.05× 3.71
Q2 over 64.5 17.9% 17.0% 19.1% 0.89× 5.88
Q2 under 48.5 17.0% 17.0% 15.3% 1.11× 5.88
Q2 under 49.5 18.8% 16.9% 18.2% 0.92× 5.93
Q2 over 65.5 16.5% 16.9% 16.4% 1.03× 5.93
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Orlando Magic to win Q3 48.1% 47.6% 50.9% 0.94× 2.10
Minnesota Timberwolves to win Q3 47.2% 47.5% 44.3% 1.07× 2.10
Q3 tied 4.7% 4.3% 4.9% 0.88× 23.43
Q3 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 under 65.5 84.1% 82.3% 82.2% 1.00× 1.22
Q3 over 49.5 81.7% 82.3% 82.7% 1.00× 1.22
Q3 under 62.5 74.0% 71.8% 71.9% 1.00× 1.39
Q3 over 52.5 70.7% 71.8% 72.2% 0.99× 1.39
Q3 under 60.5 65.7% 67.8% 63.5% 1.07× 1.48
Q3 over 54.5 62.1% 61.9% 63.9% 0.97× 1.61
Q3 under 58.5 56.6% 58.4% 54.8% 1.06× 1.71
Q3 over 56.5 52.8% 52.3% 55.0% 0.95× 1.91
Q3 under 57.5 51.9% 52.3% 49.8% 1.05× 1.91
Q3 over 57.5 48.1% 47.7% 50.2% 0.95× 2.10
Q3 under 56.5 47.2% 47.7% 45.0% 1.06× 2.10
Q3 over 58.5 43.4% 41.6% 45.2% 0.92× 2.40
Q3 under 54.5 37.9% 38.1% 36.1% 1.05× 2.63
Q3 over 60.5 34.3% 32.2% 36.5% 0.88× 3.10
Q3 under 52.5 29.3% 28.2% 27.8% 1.02× 3.55
Q3 over 62.5 26.0% 28.2% 28.1% 1.00× 3.55
Q3 under 49.5 18.3% 17.7% 17.3% 1.02× 5.66
Q3 over 65.5 15.9% 17.7% 17.8% 0.99× 5.66
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Orlando Magic to win Q4 48.0% 47.6% 48.3% 0.99× 2.10
Minnesota Timberwolves to win Q4 47.1% 47.6% 46.4% 1.03× 2.10
Q4 tied 4.9% 5.2% 5.3% 0.98× 19.28
Q4 total 32
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 under 62.5 82.6% 82.0% 80.4% 1.02× 1.22
Q4 over 46.5 81.8% 82.0% 81.7% 1.00× 1.22
Q4 under 63.5 84.0% 81.9% 83.7% 0.98× 1.22
Q4 over 47.5 80.0% 78.4% 79.0% 0.99× 1.28
Q4 under 60.5 74.2% 72.3% 74.2% 0.97× 1.38
Q4 under 59.5 72.3% 71.5% 70.2% 1.02× 1.40
Q4 over 49.5 71.3% 71.5% 72.3% 0.99× 1.40
Q4 over 50.5 69.0% 66.7% 68.5% 0.97× 1.50
Q4 under 58.5 66.3% 66.6% 66.2% 1.01× 1.50
Q4 over 52.5 60.5% 61.6% 60.4% 1.02× 1.62
Q4 under 57.5 64.1% 61.4% 61.9% 0.99× 1.63
Q4 over 51.5 63.0% 61.4% 64.7% 0.95× 1.63
Q4 under 55.5 55.2% 58.4% 52.9% 1.10× 1.71
Q4 under 56.5 57.6% 57.4% 57.2% 1.00× 1.74
Q4 over 53.5 54.0% 52.5% 55.7% 0.94× 1.91
Q4 under 54.5 50.6% 52.5% 48.6% 1.08× 1.91
Q4 over 54.5 49.4% 47.5% 51.4% 0.92× 2.11
Q4 under 53.5 46.0% 47.5% 44.3% 1.07× 2.11
Q4 over 56.5 42.4% 42.6% 42.8% 1.00× 2.35
Q4 over 55.5 44.8% 41.6% 47.1% 0.88× 2.40
Q4 under 51.5 37.0% 38.6% 35.3% 1.09× 2.59
Q4 over 57.5 35.9% 38.6% 38.1% 1.01× 2.59
Q4 under 52.5 39.5% 38.4% 39.6% 0.97× 2.61
Q4 over 58.5 33.7% 33.4% 33.8% 0.99× 3.00
Q4 under 50.5 31.0% 33.3% 31.5% 1.06× 3.00
Q4 under 49.5 28.7% 28.5% 27.7% 1.03× 3.51
Q4 over 59.5 27.7% 28.5% 29.8% 0.96× 3.51
Q4 over 60.5 25.8% 27.7% 25.8% 1.07× 3.61
Q4 under 47.5 20.0% 21.6% 21.0% 1.03× 4.62
Q4 over 63.5 16.0% 18.1% 16.3% 1.11× 5.54
Q4 under 46.5 18.2% 18.0% 18.3% 0.98× 5.56
Q4 over 62.5 17.4% 18.0% 19.6% 0.92× 5.56
Team total 70
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Orlando Magic over 102.5 80.6% 80.7% 84.2% 0.96× 1.24
Minnesota Timberwolves under 122.5 80.7% 80.7% 77.4% 1.04× 1.24
Minnesota Timberwolves under 123.5 81.0% 80.3% 79.5% 1.01× 1.25
Orlando Magic under 124.5 80.5% 80.3% 76.8% 1.05× 1.25
Orlando Magic over 104.5 78.5% 78.3% 79.8% 0.98× 1.28
Minnesota Timberwolves over 103.5 78.1% 78.3% 77.5% 1.01× 1.28
Orlando Magic under 122.5 79.6% 75.1% 71.8% 1.05× 1.33
Minnesota Timberwolves over 102.5 79.9% 75.1% 79.7% 0.94× 1.33
Minnesota Timberwolves under 120.5 73.6% 71.9% 72.7% 0.99× 1.39
Orlando Magic under 121.5 73.0% 71.9% 69.6% 1.03× 1.39
Minnesota Timberwolves over 106.5 70.1% 71.8% 68.9% 1.04× 1.39
Orlando Magic under 119.5 71.7% 70.7% 63.5% 1.11× 1.41
Orlando Magic over 105.5 72.9% 70.7% 77.4% 0.91× 1.41
Minnesota Timberwolves over 105.5 72.0% 70.7% 71.9% 0.98× 1.41
Minnesota Timberwolves under 119.5 72.9% 70.7% 70.3% 1.01× 1.41
Minnesota Timberwolves under 118.5 67.9% 66.6% 67.4% 0.99× 1.50
Orlando Magic over 107.5 67.0% 66.4% 72.7% 0.91× 1.51
Minnesota Timberwolves over 107.5 65.9% 66.4% 66.6% 1.00× 1.51
Minnesota Timberwolves under 117.5 67.0% 66.4% 64.4% 1.03× 1.51
Orlando Magic under 117.5 65.7% 66.4% 57.8% 1.15× 1.51
Orlando Magic over 109.5 60.7% 61.2% 67.0% 0.91× 1.63
Minnesota Timberwolves under 115.5 60.7% 61.2% 58.6% 1.05× 1.63
Minnesota Timberwolves over 108.5 64.1% 61.2% 64.0% 0.96× 1.63
Minnesota Timberwolves under 116.5 61.8% 61.2% 61.5% 0.99× 1.64
Minnesota Timberwolves over 110.5 57.8% 57.9% 57.9% 1.00× 1.73
Minnesota Timberwolves under 114.5 55.4% 57.9% 55.5% 1.04× 1.73
Orlando Magic under 115.5 59.3% 57.1% 51.6% 1.11× 1.75
Minnesota Timberwolves over 109.5 59.5% 57.1% 60.9% 0.94× 1.75
Orlando Magic over 111.5 54.1% 52.3% 61.1% 0.86× 1.91
Minnesota Timberwolves under 113.5 54.0% 52.3% 52.0% 1.00× 1.91
Orlando Magic under 113.5 52.6% 52.3% 45.7% 1.14× 1.91
Minnesota Timberwolves over 111.5 52.8% 52.3% 54.6% 0.96× 1.91
Orlando Magic over 112.5 50.7% 52.3% 57.7% 0.91× 1.91
Minnesota Timberwolves under 112.5 50.6% 52.3% 48.5% 1.08× 1.91
Orlando Magic under 114.5 51.4% 52.2% 48.6% 1.07× 1.91
Orlando Magic over 114.5 48.6% 47.8% 51.4% 0.93× 2.09
Orlando Magic under 112.5 49.3% 47.7% 42.3% 1.13× 2.09
Minnesota Timberwolves over 112.5 49.4% 47.7% 51.5% 0.93× 2.09
Orlando Magic over 113.5 47.4% 47.7% 54.3% 0.88× 2.09
Minnesota Timberwolves under 111.5 47.2% 47.7% 45.4% 1.05× 2.09
Orlando Magic under 111.5 45.9% 47.7% 38.9% 1.23× 2.09
Minnesota Timberwolves over 113.5 46.0% 47.7% 48.0% 1.00× 2.09
Orlando Magic over 115.5 40.7% 42.9% 48.4% 0.89× 2.33
Minnesota Timberwolves under 109.5 40.5% 42.9% 39.1% 1.10× 2.33
Minnesota Timberwolves over 114.5 44.6% 42.1% 44.5% 0.95× 2.38
Minnesota Timberwolves under 110.5 42.2% 42.1% 42.1% 1.00× 2.38
Minnesota Timberwolves over 116.5 38.2% 38.8% 38.5% 1.01× 2.58
Minnesota Timberwolves under 108.5 35.9% 38.8% 36.0% 1.08× 2.58
Orlando Magic under 109.5 39.3% 38.8% 33.0% 1.18× 2.58
Minnesota Timberwolves over 115.5 39.3% 38.8% 41.4% 0.94× 2.58
Orlando Magic over 117.5 34.3% 33.6% 42.2% 0.80× 2.98
Orlando Magic under 107.5 33.0% 33.6% 27.3% 1.23× 2.98
Minnesota Timberwolves under 107.5 34.1% 33.6% 33.4% 1.01× 2.98
Minnesota Timberwolves over 117.5 33.0% 33.6% 35.6% 0.94× 2.98
Minnesota Timberwolves over 118.5 32.1% 33.4% 32.6% 1.02× 3.00
Orlando Magic over 119.5 28.3% 29.3% 36.5% 0.80× 3.42
Orlando Magic under 105.5 27.1% 29.3% 22.6% 1.30× 3.42
Minnesota Timberwolves under 105.5 28.0% 29.3% 28.1% 1.04× 3.42
Minnesota Timberwolves over 119.5 27.1% 29.3% 29.7% 0.99× 3.42
Minnesota Timberwolves under 106.5 29.9% 28.2% 31.1% 0.91× 3.55
Orlando Magic over 121.5 27.0% 28.1% 30.4% 0.93× 3.55
Minnesota Timberwolves over 120.5 26.4% 28.1% 27.3% 1.03× 3.55
Orlando Magic over 122.5 20.4% 24.9% 28.2% 0.88× 4.02
Minnesota Timberwolves under 102.5 20.1% 24.9% 20.3% 1.22× 4.02
Minnesota Timberwolves under 103.5 21.9% 21.7% 22.5% 0.97× 4.60
Orlando Magic under 104.5 21.5% 21.7% 20.2% 1.07× 4.60
Orlando Magic over 124.5 19.5% 19.7% 23.2% 0.85× 5.07
Minnesota Timberwolves over 123.5 19.0% 19.7% 20.5% 0.96× 5.07
Orlando Magic under 102.5 19.4% 19.3% 15.8% 1.22× 5.18
Minnesota Timberwolves over 122.5 19.3% 19.3% 22.6% 0.85× 5.18
Total points 46
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 247.5 points 86.3% 85.5% 83.3% 1.03× 1.17
Under 245.5 points 86.7% 85.0% 80.9% 1.05× 1.18
Over 205.5 points 85.6% 85.0% 87.8% 0.97× 1.18
Over 207.5 points 85.0% 81.9% 85.5% 0.96× 1.22
Under 242.5 points 79.6% 78.1% 76.8% 1.02× 1.28
Over 212.5 points 77.9% 78.1% 77.8% 1.00× 1.28
Under 240.5 points 79.9% 75.6% 74.0% 1.02× 1.32
Over 210.5 points 78.6% 75.6% 81.4% 0.93× 1.32
Under 237.5 points 71.3% 71.0% 69.3% 1.03× 1.41
Under 235.5 points 71.6% 70.8% 65.3% 1.09× 1.41
Over 217.5 points 69.2% 66.6% 69.6% 0.96× 1.50
Under 234.5 points 65.6% 66.6% 63.3% 1.05× 1.50
Over 215.5 points 69.8% 65.9% 73.4% 0.90× 1.52
Under 232.5 points 65.7% 65.9% 59.4% 1.11× 1.52
Over 218.5 points 63.9% 61.5% 67.8% 0.91× 1.63
Under 230.5 points 61.6% 61.5% 55.4% 1.11× 1.63
Over 220.5 points 59.8% 56.5% 64.2% 0.88× 1.77
Under 228.5 points 57.4% 56.5% 51.3% 1.10× 1.77
Over 222.5 points 55.5% 56.5% 60.4% 0.94× 1.77
Under 226.5 points 53.1% 52.3% 47.3% 1.11× 1.91
Over 224.5 points 51.2% 52.3% 56.5% 0.93× 1.91
Under 225.5 points 51.0% 52.3% 45.3% 1.16× 1.91
Under 227.5 points 51.2% 52.2% 49.4% 1.06× 1.92
Over 227.5 points 48.8% 47.8% 50.6% 0.94× 2.09
Under 224.5 points 48.8% 47.7% 43.5% 1.10× 2.10
Over 225.5 points 49.0% 47.7% 54.7% 0.87× 2.10
Over 226.5 points 46.9% 47.7% 52.7% 0.90× 2.10
Under 222.5 points 44.5% 43.5% 39.6% 1.10× 2.30
Over 228.5 points 42.6% 43.5% 48.7% 0.89× 2.30
Under 220.5 points 40.2% 43.5% 35.8% 1.21× 2.30
Over 230.5 points 38.4% 38.5% 44.6% 0.86× 2.60
Under 218.5 points 36.1% 38.5% 32.2% 1.20× 2.60
Over 232.5 points 34.3% 34.1% 40.6% 0.84× 2.93
Under 215.5 points 30.2% 34.1% 26.6% 1.28× 2.93
Over 234.5 points 34.4% 33.4% 36.7% 0.91× 2.99
Under 217.5 points 30.8% 33.4% 30.4% 1.10× 3.00
Over 235.5 points 28.4% 29.2% 34.7% 0.84× 3.43
Over 237.5 points 28.7% 29.0% 30.7% 0.94× 3.45
Under 210.5 points 21.4% 24.4% 18.6% 1.31× 4.10
Over 240.5 points 20.1% 24.4% 26.0% 0.94× 4.10
Under 212.5 points 22.1% 21.9% 22.2% 0.99× 4.57
Over 242.5 points 20.4% 21.9% 23.2% 0.94× 4.57
Under 207.5 points 15.0% 18.1% 14.5% 1.25× 5.53
Under 205.5 points 14.4% 15.0% 12.2% 1.23× 6.68
Over 245.5 points 13.3% 15.0% 19.1% 0.78× 6.69
Over 247.5 points 13.7% 14.5% 16.7% 0.87× 6.88
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Orlando Magic to win both halves 21.8% 23.0% 25.2% 0.92× 4.34
Minnesota Timberwolves to win both halves 20.5% 23.0% 17.8% 1.29× 4.34
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Orlando Magic by 1-5 13.9% 12.3% 12.8% 0.96× 8.11
Minnesota Timberwolves by 1-5 13.7% 12.3% 12.3% 1.01× 8.11
Orlando Magic by 6-10 12.3% 12.3% 13.9% 0.88× 8.11
Minnesota Timberwolves by 6-10 11.9% 12.3% 12.3% 1.00× 8.11
Orlando Magic by 11-15 9.7% 7.5% 10.8% 0.69× 13.40
Minnesota Timberwolves by 11-15 9.2% 7.5% 8.0% 0.93× 13.40
Orlando Magic by 16-20 6.8% 7.5% 7.3% 1.02× 13.40
Minnesota Timberwolves by 16-20 6.4% 7.5% 4.9% 1.53× 13.40
Orlando Magic by 21-25 4.2% 2.0% 4.7% 0.43× 49.29
Minnesota Timberwolves by 21-25 3.9% 2.0% 3.0% 0.67× 49.29
Orlando Magic by 26+ 4.3% 2.0% 6.2% 0.33× 49.29
Minnesota Timberwolves by 26+ 3.8% 2.0% 3.9% 0.53× 49.29
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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