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Philadelphia 76ers v Milwaukee Bucks — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 24 October 2026 · NBA · 2027

NBA results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Philadelphia 76ers win
71.1%
Draw
0.0%
Milwaukee Bucks win
28.9%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 117.67–109.80 118-110 0% 50% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Philadelphia 76ers to score 100+ 93.9% 90.3% 89.3% 1.01× 1.11
Milwaukee Bucks to score 100+ 80.8% 79.2% 85.9% 0.92× 1.26
Both sides to score 100+ 76.7% 76.9% 77.5% 0.99× 1.30
Philadelphia 76ers to score 110+ 75.8% 76.9% 67.0% 1.15× 1.30
Milwaukee Bucks to score 110+ 50.6% 52.3% 60.9% 0.86× 1.91
Philadelphia 76ers to score 120+ 44.2% 41.9% 36.5% 1.15× 2.38
Milwaukee Bucks to score 120+ 20.1% 21.9% 29.7% 0.74× 4.56
Philadelphia 76ers to score 130+ 16.0% 17.5% 12.8% 1.37× 5.71
Milwaukee Bucks to score 130+ 4.6% 0.4% 10.0% 0.04× 282.46
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Philadelphia 76ers to win H1 62.4% 62.2% 52.8% 1.18× 1.61
Milwaukee Bucks to win H1 34.3% 33.1% 44.1% 0.75× 3.02
H1 tied 3.3% 3.9% 3.1% 1.25× 25.87
H1 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 127.5 83.6% 82.5% 84.8% 0.97× 1.21
H1 over 103.5 80.8% 82.5% 80.7% 1.02× 1.21
H1 under 123.5 74.8% 73.5% 76.0% 0.97× 1.36
H1 over 107.5 71.3% 73.5% 70.4% 1.04× 1.36
H1 under 120.5 66.9% 67.4% 68.4% 0.99× 1.48
H1 over 110.5 63.0% 62.7% 61.9% 1.01× 1.59
H1 under 118.5 61.2% 62.7% 62.9% 1.00× 1.59
H1 over 112.5 57.0% 58.2% 55.8% 1.04× 1.72
H1 under 116.5 55.2% 58.2% 56.6% 1.03× 1.72
H1 under 115.5 52.1% 52.6% 53.6% 0.98× 1.90
H1 over 114.5 50.9% 52.6% 49.6% 1.06× 1.90
H1 under 114.5 49.1% 47.4% 50.4% 0.94× 2.11
H1 over 115.5 47.9% 47.4% 46.4% 1.02× 2.11
H1 over 116.5 44.8% 41.8% 43.4% 0.96× 2.39
H1 under 112.5 43.0% 41.8% 44.2% 0.95× 2.39
H1 over 118.5 38.8% 37.3% 37.1% 1.00× 2.68
H1 under 110.5 37.0% 37.3% 38.1% 0.98× 2.68
H1 over 120.5 33.1% 32.6% 31.6% 1.03× 3.07
H1 under 107.5 28.7% 26.5% 29.6% 0.90× 3.77
H1 over 123.5 25.2% 26.5% 24.0% 1.10× 3.77
H1 under 103.5 19.2% 17.5% 19.3% 0.91× 5.72
H1 over 127.5 16.4% 17.5% 15.2% 1.15× 5.73
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Philadelphia 76ers to win H2 62.2% 58.8% 51.6% 1.14× 1.70
Milwaukee Bucks to win H2 34.4% 36.3% 44.7% 0.81× 2.75
H2 tied 3.3% 3.9% 3.7% 1.06× 25.36
H2 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 over 100.5 82.8% 81.8% 82.4% 0.99× 1.22
H2 under 124.5 82.1% 81.8% 79.1% 1.03× 1.22
H2 under 125.5 83.3% 81.5% 81.3% 1.00× 1.23
H2 over 101.5 81.0% 81.5% 80.3% 1.02× 1.23
H2 under 121.5 74.5% 72.5% 72.0% 1.01× 1.38
H2 over 105.5 71.6% 72.5% 71.3% 1.02× 1.38
H2 over 104.5 73.7% 72.2% 73.9% 0.98× 1.39
H2 under 120.5 72.9% 72.2% 69.3% 1.04× 1.39
H2 over 107.5 65.6% 66.4% 66.2% 1.00× 1.51
H2 under 118.5 66.5% 64.4% 63.6% 1.01× 1.55
H2 over 108.5 63.3% 62.6% 63.8% 0.98× 1.60
H2 under 116.5 60.8% 62.6% 58.1% 1.08× 1.60
H2 under 117.5 64.6% 61.6% 61.1% 1.01× 1.62
H2 over 110.5 57.4% 58.0% 58.1% 1.00× 1.72
H2 over 109.5 59.7% 57.3% 60.9% 0.94× 1.74
H2 under 115.5 58.7% 57.3% 55.4% 1.03× 1.74
H2 over 111.5 53.6% 52.4% 55.3% 0.95× 1.91
H2 under 113.5 52.6% 52.4% 50.1% 1.05× 1.91
H2 over 112.5 50.5% 52.4% 52.6% 1.00× 1.91
H2 under 114.5 54.8% 52.1% 52.5% 0.99× 1.92
H2 over 114.5 45.2% 47.9% 47.5% 1.01× 2.09
H2 under 112.5 49.5% 47.6% 47.4% 1.00× 2.10
H2 over 113.5 47.4% 47.6% 49.9% 0.95× 2.10
H2 under 111.5 46.4% 47.6% 44.7% 1.07× 2.10
H2 over 115.5 41.3% 42.7% 44.6% 0.96× 2.34
H2 under 109.5 40.3% 42.7% 39.1% 1.09× 2.35
H2 under 110.5 42.6% 42.0% 41.9% 1.00× 2.38
H2 over 117.5 35.4% 38.4% 38.9% 0.99× 2.61
H2 over 116.5 39.2% 37.4% 41.9% 0.89× 2.67
H2 under 108.5 36.7% 37.4% 36.2% 1.03× 2.67
H2 over 118.5 33.5% 35.6% 36.4% 0.98× 2.81
H2 under 107.5 34.4% 33.6% 33.8% 1.00× 2.97
H2 over 120.5 27.1% 27.8% 30.7% 0.91× 3.59
H2 under 104.5 26.3% 27.8% 26.1% 1.07× 3.59
H2 under 105.5 28.4% 27.5% 28.7% 0.96× 3.63
H2 over 121.5 25.5% 27.5% 28.0% 0.98× 3.64
H2 under 101.5 19.0% 18.5% 19.7% 0.94× 5.41
H2 over 125.5 16.7% 18.5% 18.7% 0.99× 5.41
H2 over 124.5 17.9% 18.2% 20.9% 0.87× 5.50
H2 under 100.5 17.2% 18.2% 17.6% 1.03× 5.50
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Philadelphia 76ers leading at half time 62.4% 62.5% 52.8% 1.18× 1.60
Milwaukee Bucks leading at half time 34.3% 32.8% 44.1% 0.74× 3.05
Level at half time 3.3% 3.8% 3.1% 1.22× 26.41
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Philadelphia 76ers +18.5 96.5% 97.4% 91.5% 1.06× 1.03
Philadelphia 76ers +20.5 97.4% 97.4% 93.1% 1.05× 1.03
Philadelphia 76ers +16.5 95.2% 97.4% 89.7% 1.09× 1.03
Philadelphia 76ers +14.5 93.7% 91.1% 87.0% 1.05× 1.10
Philadelphia 76ers +12.5 91.8% 91.1% 83.9% 1.09× 1.10
Philadelphia 76ers +10.5 89.5% 85.9% 80.3% 1.07× 1.16
Philadelphia 76ers +8.5 86.7% 85.9% 75.7% 1.13× 1.16
Philadelphia 76ers +9.5 88.2% 85.9% 78.1% 1.10× 1.16
Philadelphia 76ers +7.5 85.2% 85.9% 73.0% 1.18× 1.16
Philadelphia 76ers +6.5 83.5% 81.1% 70.6% 1.15× 1.23
Philadelphia 76ers +5.5 81.7% 81.1% 68.0% 1.19× 1.23
Milwaukee Bucks +20.5 80.3% 81.1% 89.1% 0.91× 1.23
Philadelphia 76ers +4.5 79.8% 76.5% 65.7% 1.16× 1.31
Philadelphia 76ers +3.5 77.8% 76.5% 63.1% 1.21× 1.31
Milwaukee Bucks +18.5 76.3% 76.5% 86.4% 0.89× 1.31
Philadelphia 76ers +2.5 75.7% 76.5% 60.5% 1.26× 1.31
Philadelphia 76ers +1.5 73.5% 71.6% 57.9% 1.24× 1.40
Milwaukee Bucks +16.5 71.7% 71.6% 83.5% 0.86× 1.40
Philadelphia 76ers −1.5 68.6% 66.7% 53.7% 1.24× 1.50
Milwaukee Bucks +14.5 66.8% 66.7% 80.1% 0.83× 1.50
Philadelphia 76ers −2.5 66.0% 66.7% 50.9% 1.31× 1.50
Philadelphia 76ers −3.5 63.3% 61.9% 48.4% 1.28× 1.62
Milwaukee Bucks +12.5 61.6% 61.9% 76.0% 0.82× 1.62
Philadelphia 76ers −4.5 60.6% 61.9% 46.0% 1.35× 1.62
Philadelphia 76ers −5.5 57.9% 57.1% 42.9% 1.33× 1.75
Milwaukee Bucks +10.5 56.2% 57.1% 71.0% 0.80× 1.75
Philadelphia 76ers −6.5 55.1% 57.1% 40.0% 1.43× 1.75
Milwaukee Bucks +9.5 53.4% 52.4% 68.7% 0.76× 1.91
Philadelphia 76ers −7.5 52.3% 52.4% 37.0% 1.41× 1.91
Milwaukee Bucks +8.5 50.6% 52.4% 65.9% 0.80× 1.91
Philadelphia 76ers −8.5 49.4% 47.6% 34.1% 1.40× 2.10
Milwaukee Bucks +7.5 47.7% 47.6% 63.0% 0.76× 2.10
Philadelphia 76ers −9.5 46.6% 47.6% 31.3% 1.52× 2.10
Milwaukee Bucks +6.5 44.9% 42.9% 60.0% 0.72× 2.33
Philadelphia 76ers −10.5 43.8% 42.9% 29.0% 1.48× 2.33
Milwaukee Bucks +5.5 42.1% 42.9% 57.1% 0.75× 2.33
Milwaukee Bucks +4.5 39.4% 38.1% 54.1% 0.70× 2.63
Philadelphia 76ers −12.5 38.4% 38.1% 24.0% 1.58× 2.63
Milwaukee Bucks +3.5 36.7% 38.1% 51.6% 0.74× 2.63
Milwaukee Bucks +2.5 34.0% 33.3% 49.1% 0.68× 3.01
Philadelphia 76ers −14.5 33.2% 33.3% 19.9% 1.68× 3.01
Milwaukee Bucks +1.5 31.4% 33.3% 46.3% 0.72× 3.01
Philadelphia 76ers −16.5 28.3% 28.4% 16.5% 1.72× 3.53
Milwaukee Bucks −1.5 26.5% 28.4% 42.1% 0.67× 3.53
Milwaukee Bucks −2.5 24.3% 23.5% 39.5% 0.60× 4.25
Philadelphia 76ers −18.5 23.7% 23.5% 13.6% 1.73× 4.25
Milwaukee Bucks −3.5 22.2% 23.5% 36.9% 0.64× 4.25
Milwaukee Bucks −4.5 20.2% 23.5% 34.3% 0.69× 4.25
Philadelphia 76ers −20.5 19.7% 18.9% 10.9% 1.74× 5.29
Milwaukee Bucks −5.5 18.3% 18.9% 32.0% 0.59× 5.29
Milwaukee Bucks −6.5 16.5% 18.9% 29.4% 0.64× 5.30
Milwaukee Bucks −7.5 14.8% 14.1% 27.0% 0.52× 7.09
Milwaukee Bucks −8.5 13.3% 14.1% 24.3% 0.58× 7.09
Milwaukee Bucks −9.5 11.8% 14.1% 21.9% 0.65× 7.09
Milwaukee Bucks −10.5 10.5% 14.1% 19.7% 0.71× 7.09
Milwaukee Bucks −12.5 8.2% 8.9% 16.1% 0.55× 11.25
Milwaukee Bucks −14.5 6.3% 8.9% 13.0% 0.68× 11.25
Milwaukee Bucks −16.5 4.8% 2.6% 10.3% 0.25× 38.72
Milwaukee Bucks −18.5 3.5% 2.6% 8.5% 0.30× 38.73
Milwaukee Bucks −20.5 2.6% 2.6% 6.9% 0.37× 38.73
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1st half highest scoring 56.6% 52.6% 53.5% 0.98× 1.90
2nd half highest scoring 43.4% 47.4% 46.5% 1.02× 2.11
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 highest scoring 28.2% 27.4% 29.2% 0.94× 3.65
Q3 highest scoring 27.9% 27.4% 27.5% 1.00× 3.65
Q2 highest scoring 26.6% 27.4% 26.3% 1.04× 3.65
Q4 highest scoring 17.3% 18.3% 17.0% 1.08× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Philadelphia 76ers at HT / Philadelphia 76ers at FT 54.1% 51.1% 40.8% 1.25× 1.96
Milwaukee Bucks at HT / Milwaukee Bucks at FT 19.5% 15.5% 30.9% 0.50× 6.47
Milwaukee Bucks at HT / Philadelphia 76ers at FT 14.8% 12.2% 13.3% 0.92× 8.17
Philadelphia 76ers at HT / Milwaukee Bucks at FT 8.3% 8.3% 12.0% 0.69× 12.08
Level at HT / Philadelphia 76ers at FT 2.2% 2.1% 1.7% 1.22× 47.75
Level at HT / Milwaukee Bucks at FT 1.1% 2.1% 1.4% 1.49× 47.77
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Philadelphia 76ers to win 71.1% 68.7% 55.7% 1.23× 1.46
Milwaukee Bucks to win 28.9% 31.3% 44.3% 0.71× 3.20
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Philadelphia 76ers even 50.0% 50.5% 49.7% 1.02× 1.98
Milwaukee Bucks even 50.0% 50.5% 50.3% 1.00× 1.98
Total points odd 51.2% 50.5% 51.0% 0.99× 1.98
Philadelphia 76ers odd 50.0% 49.5% 50.3% 0.98× 2.02
Milwaukee Bucks odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.7% 1.00× 2.02
Total points even 48.8% 49.5% 49.0% 1.01× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 93.9% 94.0% 94.8% 0.99× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 6.1% 6.0% 5.2% 1.16× 16.66
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Philadelphia 76ers to win Q1 57.4% 57.3% 51.3% 1.12× 1.75
Milwaukee Bucks to win Q1 38.0% 38.2% 44.1% 0.87× 2.62
Q1 tied 4.6% 4.2% 4.6% 0.90× 23.95
Q1 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 over 49.5 82.8% 82.8% 82.7% 1.00× 1.21
Q1 under 65.5 82.5% 82.8% 83.2% 1.00× 1.21
Q1 over 52.5 72.4% 72.7% 72.4% 1.00× 1.38
Q1 under 62.5 72.0% 72.7% 72.9% 1.00× 1.38
Q1 over 54.5 64.0% 61.7% 63.3% 0.98× 1.62
Q1 under 60.5 63.6% 61.7% 64.5% 0.96× 1.62
Q1 over 56.5 54.9% 52.7% 54.6% 0.96× 1.90
Q1 under 58.5 54.5% 52.7% 55.7% 0.95× 1.90
Q1 over 57.5 50.2% 52.7% 49.6% 1.06× 1.90
Q1 under 57.5 49.8% 47.3% 50.4% 0.94× 2.11
Q1 over 58.5 45.5% 47.3% 44.3% 1.07× 2.11
Q1 under 56.5 45.1% 47.3% 45.4% 1.04× 2.11
Q1 over 60.5 36.4% 38.3% 35.5% 1.08× 2.61
Q1 under 54.5 36.0% 38.3% 36.7% 1.04× 2.61
Q1 over 62.5 28.0% 27.3% 27.1% 1.01× 3.66
Q1 under 52.5 27.6% 27.3% 27.6% 0.99× 3.66
Q1 over 65.5 17.5% 17.2% 16.8% 1.02× 5.83
Q1 under 49.5 17.2% 17.2% 17.3% 0.99× 5.83
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Philadelphia 76ers to win Q2 57.3% 59.4% 49.3% 1.20× 1.68
Milwaukee Bucks to win Q2 38.1% 35.8% 46.2% 0.77× 2.80
Q2 tied 4.6% 4.4% 4.5% 0.98× 22.89
Q2 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 under 65.5 83.3% 83.0% 83.6% 0.99× 1.21
Q2 over 49.5 81.8% 83.0% 81.8% 1.02× 1.21
Q2 under 62.5 73.0% 72.0% 74.4% 0.97× 1.39
Q2 over 52.5 71.1% 72.0% 70.3% 1.02× 1.39
Q2 under 60.5 64.8% 60.7% 65.7% 0.92× 1.65
Q2 over 54.5 62.6% 60.7% 61.1% 0.99× 1.65
Q2 under 58.5 55.8% 58.2% 57.3% 1.01× 1.72
Q2 over 56.5 53.5% 52.7% 51.7% 1.02× 1.90
Q2 under 57.5 51.2% 52.7% 52.7% 1.00× 1.90
Q2 over 57.5 48.8% 47.3% 47.3% 1.00× 2.11
Q2 under 56.5 46.5% 47.3% 48.3% 0.98× 2.11
Q2 over 58.5 44.2% 41.8% 42.7% 0.98× 2.39
Q2 under 54.5 37.4% 39.3% 38.9% 1.01× 2.55
Q2 over 60.5 35.2% 39.3% 34.3% 1.15× 2.55
Q2 under 52.5 28.9% 28.0% 29.7% 0.94× 3.57
Q2 over 62.5 27.0% 28.0% 25.6% 1.09× 3.57
Q2 under 49.5 18.2% 17.0% 18.2% 0.93× 5.88
Q2 over 65.5 16.7% 17.0% 16.4% 1.04× 5.88
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Philadelphia 76ers to win Q3 57.3% 56.8% 50.9% 1.12× 1.76
Milwaukee Bucks to win Q3 38.1% 38.8% 44.3% 0.88× 2.58
Q3 tied 4.6% 4.3% 4.9% 0.88× 23.43
Q3 total 32
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 over 49.5 83.5% 82.3% 82.7% 1.00× 1.22
Q3 under 65.5 82.3% 82.3% 82.2% 1.00× 1.22
Q3 under 66.5 84.7% 82.2% 84.7% 0.97× 1.22
Q3 over 50.5 80.7% 82.2% 79.7% 1.03× 1.22
Q3 under 63.5 74.8% 72.5% 75.9% 0.95× 1.38
Q3 over 52.5 73.2% 71.8% 72.2% 0.99× 1.39
Q3 under 62.5 71.6% 71.8% 71.9% 1.00× 1.39
Q3 over 53.5 69.6% 66.9% 68.3% 0.98× 1.50
Q3 under 61.5 66.7% 66.8% 67.7% 0.99× 1.50
Q3 over 55.5 60.9% 62.6% 59.9% 1.05× 1.60
Q3 over 54.5 64.9% 62.0% 63.9% 0.97× 1.61
Q3 under 60.5 63.0% 61.9% 63.5% 0.98× 1.61
Q3 over 56.5 55.7% 58.4% 55.0% 1.06× 1.71
Q3 under 59.5 57.7% 57.9% 59.0% 0.98× 1.73
Q3 under 58.5 53.8% 52.3% 54.8% 0.95× 1.91
Q3 over 57.5 51.0% 52.3% 50.2% 1.04× 1.91
Q3 under 57.5 49.0% 47.7% 49.8% 0.96× 2.10
Q3 over 58.5 46.3% 47.7% 45.2% 1.06× 2.10
Q3 over 59.5 42.3% 42.1% 41.0% 1.03× 2.37
Q3 under 56.5 44.3% 41.6% 45.0% 0.93× 2.40
Q3 over 60.5 37.0% 38.1% 36.5% 1.04× 2.63
Q3 under 54.5 35.1% 38.0% 36.1% 1.05× 2.63
Q3 under 55.5 39.1% 37.4% 40.1% 0.93× 2.67
Q3 over 61.5 33.3% 33.2% 32.3% 1.03× 3.02
Q3 under 53.5 30.4% 33.1% 31.7% 1.05× 3.02
Q3 over 62.5 28.4% 28.2% 28.1% 1.00× 3.55
Q3 under 52.5 26.8% 28.2% 27.8% 1.02× 3.55
Q3 over 63.5 25.2% 27.5% 24.1% 1.14× 3.64
Q3 under 50.5 19.3% 17.8% 20.3% 0.88× 5.62
Q3 over 66.5 15.3% 17.8% 15.3% 1.16× 5.63
Q3 over 65.5 17.7% 17.7% 17.8% 0.99× 5.66
Q3 under 49.5 16.5% 17.7% 17.3% 1.02× 5.66
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Philadelphia 76ers to win Q4 57.1% 52.1% 48.3% 1.08× 1.92
Milwaukee Bucks to win Q4 38.2% 42.4% 46.4% 0.91× 2.36
Q4 tied 4.8% 5.2% 5.3% 0.98× 19.28
Q4 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 under 63.5 83.8% 82.0% 83.7% 0.98× 1.22
Q4 over 47.5 80.5% 82.0% 79.0% 1.04× 1.22
Q4 under 60.5 73.9% 71.5% 74.2% 0.96× 1.40
Q4 over 50.5 69.6% 67.4% 68.5% 0.98× 1.48
Q4 under 58.5 65.9% 67.4% 66.2% 1.02× 1.48
Q4 over 52.5 61.1% 61.4% 60.4% 1.02× 1.63
Q4 under 56.5 57.1% 58.4% 57.2% 1.02× 1.71
Q4 under 55.5 52.5% 52.5% 52.9% 0.99× 1.91
Q4 over 54.5 52.1% 52.5% 51.4% 1.02× 1.91
Q4 under 54.5 47.9% 47.5% 48.6% 0.98× 2.11
Q4 over 55.5 47.5% 47.5% 47.1% 1.01× 2.11
Q4 over 56.5 42.9% 41.6% 42.8% 0.97× 2.40
Q4 under 52.5 38.9% 38.6% 39.6% 0.97× 2.59
Q4 over 58.5 34.1% 32.6% 33.8% 0.96× 3.07
Q4 under 50.5 30.4% 32.6% 31.5% 1.04× 3.07
Q4 over 60.5 26.1% 28.5% 25.8% 1.11× 3.51
Q4 under 47.5 19.5% 18.0% 21.0% 0.86× 5.56
Q4 over 63.5 16.2% 18.0% 16.3% 1.11× 5.56
Team total 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Philadelphia 76ers under 128.5 81.8% 80.7% 85.5% 0.94× 1.24
Milwaukee Bucks over 99.5 80.8% 80.7% 85.9% 0.94× 1.24
Milwaukee Bucks over 101.5 79.7% 78.3% 82.0% 0.96× 1.28
Philadelphia 76ers under 126.5 79.6% 78.3% 81.5% 0.96× 1.28
Philadelphia 76ers over 106.5 79.5% 78.3% 75.1% 1.04× 1.28
Milwaukee Bucks under 121.5 79.6% 78.3% 74.7% 1.05× 1.28
Milwaukee Bucks under 119.5 79.9% 75.1% 70.3% 1.07× 1.33
Philadelphia 76ers over 108.5 78.4% 75.1% 69.9% 1.08× 1.33
Philadelphia 76ers over 109.5 71.8% 71.8% 67.0% 1.07× 1.39
Milwaukee Bucks under 118.5 71.8% 71.8% 67.4% 1.07× 1.39
Philadelphia 76ers under 125.5 74.4% 70.7% 79.1% 0.89× 1.41
Milwaukee Bucks over 102.5 73.1% 70.7% 79.7% 0.89× 1.41
Milwaukee Bucks under 116.5 72.0% 70.7% 61.5% 1.15× 1.41
Philadelphia 76ers over 111.5 70.3% 70.7% 61.1% 1.16× 1.41
Philadelphia 76ers under 123.5 68.6% 66.4% 74.4% 0.89× 1.51
Milwaukee Bucks over 104.5 67.1% 66.4% 75.0% 0.89× 1.51
Milwaukee Bucks under 114.5 66.0% 66.4% 55.5% 1.20× 1.51
Philadelphia 76ers over 113.5 64.2% 61.2% 54.3% 1.13× 1.63
Philadelphia 76ers under 121.5 62.3% 61.2% 69.6% 0.88× 1.63
Milwaukee Bucks over 106.5 60.7% 61.2% 68.9% 0.89× 1.63
Milwaukee Bucks under 112.5 59.5% 57.1% 48.5% 1.18× 1.75
Philadelphia 76ers over 115.5 57.7% 57.1% 48.4% 1.18× 1.75
Philadelphia 76ers under 119.5 55.8% 57.1% 63.5% 0.90× 1.75
Milwaukee Bucks over 108.5 54.0% 52.3% 64.0% 0.82× 1.91
Philadelphia 76ers over 117.5 51.0% 52.3% 42.2% 1.24× 1.91
Philadelphia 76ers under 118.5 52.4% 52.3% 60.3% 0.87× 1.91
Milwaukee Bucks under 110.5 52.8% 52.3% 42.1% 1.24× 1.91
Milwaukee Bucks over 109.5 50.6% 52.3% 60.9% 0.86× 1.91
Philadelphia 76ers under 116.5 50.0% 52.2% 54.7% 0.95× 1.91
Milwaukee Bucks over 111.5 50.1% 52.2% 54.6% 0.96× 1.91
Philadelphia 76ers over 116.5 50.0% 47.8% 45.3% 1.06× 2.09
Milwaukee Bucks under 111.5 49.9% 47.8% 45.4% 1.05× 2.09
Milwaukee Bucks under 109.5 49.4% 47.7% 39.1% 1.22× 2.09
Philadelphia 76ers under 117.5 49.0% 47.7% 57.8% 0.83× 2.09
Philadelphia 76ers over 118.5 47.6% 47.7% 39.7% 1.20× 2.09
Milwaukee Bucks over 110.5 47.2% 47.7% 57.9% 0.83× 2.09
Milwaukee Bucks under 108.5 46.0% 47.7% 36.0% 1.33× 2.09
Philadelphia 76ers over 119.5 44.2% 42.9% 36.5% 1.17× 2.33
Philadelphia 76ers under 115.5 42.3% 42.9% 51.6% 0.83× 2.33
Milwaukee Bucks over 112.5 40.5% 42.9% 51.5% 0.83× 2.33
Milwaukee Bucks under 106.5 39.3% 38.8% 31.1% 1.25× 2.58
Philadelphia 76ers over 121.5 37.7% 38.8% 30.4% 1.28× 2.58
Philadelphia 76ers under 113.5 35.8% 38.8% 45.7% 0.85× 2.58
Milwaukee Bucks over 114.5 34.0% 33.6% 44.5% 0.76× 2.98
Milwaukee Bucks under 104.5 32.9% 33.6% 25.0% 1.35× 2.98
Philadelphia 76ers over 123.5 31.4% 33.6% 25.6% 1.31× 2.98
Philadelphia 76ers under 111.5 29.8% 29.3% 38.9% 0.75× 3.42
Milwaukee Bucks under 102.5 26.9% 29.3% 20.3% 1.44× 3.42
Milwaukee Bucks over 116.5 28.0% 29.3% 38.5% 0.76× 3.42
Philadelphia 76ers over 125.5 25.7% 29.3% 20.9% 1.40× 3.42
Philadelphia 76ers under 109.5 28.2% 28.2% 33.0% 0.85× 3.55
Milwaukee Bucks over 118.5 28.2% 28.2% 32.6% 0.86× 3.55
Philadelphia 76ers under 108.5 21.6% 24.9% 30.1% 0.83× 4.02
Milwaukee Bucks over 119.5 20.1% 24.9% 29.7% 0.84× 4.02
Philadelphia 76ers under 106.5 20.5% 21.7% 24.9% 0.87× 4.60
Milwaukee Bucks over 121.5 20.4% 21.7% 25.3% 0.86× 4.60
Philadelphia 76ers over 126.5 20.4% 21.7% 18.5% 1.18× 4.60
Milwaukee Bucks under 101.5 20.3% 21.7% 18.0% 1.20× 4.61
Milwaukee Bucks under 99.5 19.2% 19.3% 14.1% 1.37× 5.18
Philadelphia 76ers over 128.5 18.2% 19.3% 14.5% 1.33× 5.18
Total points 56
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 248.5 points 86.2% 85.5% 84.4% 1.01× 1.17
Over 208.5 points 85.1% 85.5% 84.1% 1.02× 1.17
Under 247.5 points 86.2% 85.0% 83.3% 1.02× 1.18
Over 207.5 points 86.1% 85.0% 85.5% 0.99× 1.18
Under 243.5 points 79.5% 78.1% 78.2% 1.00× 1.28
Over 213.5 points 78.0% 78.1% 76.4% 1.02× 1.28
Over 212.5 points 79.2% 75.6% 77.8% 0.97× 1.32
Under 242.5 points 79.3% 75.6% 76.8% 0.98× 1.32
Under 238.5 points 71.1% 71.0% 70.9% 1.00× 1.41
Over 217.5 points 70.6% 70.8% 69.6% 1.02× 1.41
Under 237.5 points 70.7% 70.8% 69.3% 1.02× 1.41
Over 218.5 points 69.4% 66.6% 67.8% 0.98× 1.50
Under 235.5 points 65.5% 66.6% 65.3% 1.02× 1.50
Over 221.5 points 63.6% 61.8% 62.2% 0.99× 1.62
Under 233.5 points 61.5% 61.7% 61.4% 1.01× 1.62
Over 220.5 points 64.8% 61.5% 64.2% 0.96× 1.63
Under 234.5 points 64.9% 61.5% 63.3% 0.97× 1.63
Over 222.5 points 60.7% 61.5% 60.4% 1.02× 1.63
Under 232.5 points 60.8% 61.5% 59.4% 1.04× 1.63
Over 224.5 points 56.4% 56.5% 56.5% 1.00× 1.77
Under 230.5 points 56.5% 56.5% 55.4% 1.02× 1.77
Over 223.5 points 59.5% 56.0% 58.3% 0.96× 1.79
Under 231.5 points 57.4% 56.0% 57.4% 0.98× 1.79
Over 225.5 points 55.3% 56.0% 54.7% 1.02× 1.79
Under 228.5 points 52.2% 52.3% 51.3% 1.02× 1.91
Over 226.5 points 52.1% 52.3% 52.7% 0.99× 1.91
Under 227.5 points 50.1% 52.3% 49.4% 1.06× 1.91
Under 229.5 points 53.2% 52.2% 53.3% 0.98× 1.92
Over 229.5 points 46.8% 47.8% 46.7% 1.02× 2.09
Over 227.5 points 49.9% 47.7% 50.6% 0.94× 2.10
Over 228.5 points 47.8% 47.7% 48.7% 0.98× 2.10
Under 226.5 points 47.9% 47.7% 47.3% 1.01× 2.10
Under 225.5 points 44.7% 44.0% 45.3% 0.97× 2.27
Over 231.5 points 42.6% 44.0% 42.6% 1.03× 2.27
Under 223.5 points 40.5% 44.0% 41.7% 1.05× 2.27
Under 224.5 points 43.6% 43.5% 43.5% 1.00× 2.30
Over 230.5 points 43.5% 43.5% 44.6% 0.97× 2.30
Under 222.5 points 39.3% 38.5% 39.6% 0.97× 2.60
Over 232.5 points 39.2% 38.5% 40.6% 0.95× 2.60
Under 220.5 points 35.2% 38.5% 35.8% 1.08× 2.60
Over 234.5 points 35.1% 38.5% 36.7% 1.05× 2.60
Over 233.5 points 38.5% 38.3% 38.6% 0.99× 2.61
Under 221.5 points 36.4% 38.3% 37.8% 1.01× 2.61
Over 235.5 points 34.5% 33.4% 34.7% 0.96× 2.99
Under 218.5 points 30.6% 33.4% 32.2% 1.04× 3.00
Under 217.5 points 29.4% 29.2% 30.4% 0.96× 3.43
Over 237.5 points 29.3% 29.2% 30.7% 0.95× 3.43
Over 238.5 points 28.9% 29.0% 29.1% 0.99× 3.45
Under 212.5 points 20.8% 24.4% 22.2% 1.10× 4.10
Over 242.5 points 20.7% 24.4% 23.2% 1.05× 4.10
Under 213.5 points 22.0% 21.9% 23.6% 0.93× 4.57
Over 243.5 points 20.5% 21.9% 21.8% 1.00× 4.57
Under 207.5 points 13.9% 15.0% 14.5% 1.03× 6.68
Over 247.5 points 13.8% 15.0% 16.7% 0.90× 6.68
Under 208.5 points 14.9% 14.5% 15.9% 0.91× 6.88
Over 248.5 points 13.8% 14.5% 15.6% 0.93× 6.88
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Philadelphia 76ers to win both halves 36.8% 36.3% 25.2% 1.44× 2.76
Milwaukee Bucks to win both halves 10.0% 8.9% 17.8% 0.50× 11.30
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Philadelphia 76ers by 1-5 13.3% 12.3% 12.8% 0.96× 8.11
Philadelphia 76ers by 6-10 14.0% 12.3% 13.9% 0.88× 8.11
Philadelphia 76ers by 11-15 13.2% 12.3% 10.8% 1.14× 8.11
Milwaukee Bucks by 1-5 10.6% 12.3% 12.3% 1.01× 8.11
Philadelphia 76ers by 16-20 11.0% 12.3% 7.3% 1.68× 8.11
Philadelphia 76ers by 26+ 11.5% 12.3% 6.2% 1.99× 8.11
Philadelphia 76ers by 21-25 8.2% 7.5% 4.7% 1.58× 13.40
Milwaukee Bucks by 6-10 7.7% 7.5% 12.3% 0.61× 13.40
Milwaukee Bucks by 11-15 5.0% 7.5% 8.0% 0.93× 13.41
Milwaukee Bucks by 16-20 2.9% 2.0% 4.9% 0.42× 49.30
Milwaukee Bucks by 21-25 1.5% 2.0% 3.0% 0.67× 49.31
Milwaukee Bucks by 26+ 1.1% 2.0% 3.9% 0.53× 49.32
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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