Phoenix Suns v Golden State Warriors — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 25 October 2026 · NBA · 2027

NBA results-only Prediction generated 3 Sep 2026, 23:45

Phoenix Suns

22:00

Golden State Warriors

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Phoenix Suns win

61.4%

Draw

0.0%

Golden State Warriors win

38.6%

61039

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
nba-normal	61039	113.86–109.76	114-110 0%	50%	0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Phoenix Suns to score 100+	88.8%	85.0%	89.3%	0.95×	1.18
Golden State Warriors to score 100+	80.8%	79.2%	85.9%	0.92×	1.26
Both sides to score 100+	72.9%	72.3%	77.5%	0.93×	1.38
Phoenix Suns to score 110+	64.6%	61.9%	67.0%	0.92×	1.62
Golden State Warriors to score 110+	50.6%	52.3%	60.9%	0.86×	1.91
Phoenix Suns to score 120+	31.9%	31.3%	36.5%	0.86×	3.19
Golden State Warriors to score 120+	20.2%	21.9%	29.7%	0.74×	4.56
Phoenix Suns to score 130+	9.4%	8.8%	12.8%	0.69×	11.35
Golden State Warriors to score 130+	4.6%	0.4%	10.0%	0.04×	282.46

H1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Phoenix Suns to win H1	55.7%	57.3%	52.8%	1.08×	1.75
Golden State Warriors to win H1	40.8%	42.7%	44.1%	0.97×	2.34
H1 tied	3.4%	3.9%	3.1%	1.25×	25.86

H1 total 40

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H1 under 126.5	82.7%	83.2%	82.8%	1.01×	1.20
H1 over 102.5	81.1%	83.2%	83.0%	1.00×	1.20
H1 under 125.5	83.4%	82.5%	80.7%	1.02×	1.21
H1 over 101.5	80.9%	82.5%	84.9%	0.97×	1.21
H1 under 122.5	73.9%	74.0%	74.0%	1.00×	1.35
H1 over 106.5	71.8%	74.0%	73.3%	1.01×	1.35
H1 under 121.5	74.7%	73.5%	71.2%	1.03×	1.36
H1 over 105.5	71.4%	73.5%	75.8%	0.97×	1.36
H1 under 119.5	66.0%	68.1%	65.9%	1.03×	1.47
H1 under 118.5	66.8%	67.4%	62.9%	1.07×	1.48
H1 over 109.5	63.7%	63.3%	65.0%	0.97×	1.58
H1 under 117.5	60.2%	63.3%	59.6%	1.06×	1.58
H1 over 108.5	63.1%	62.7%	67.7%	0.93×	1.59
H1 under 116.5	61.0%	62.7%	56.6%	1.11×	1.59
H1 over 110.5	57.2%	58.2%	61.9%	0.94×	1.72
H1 under 114.5	55.0%	58.2%	50.4%	1.16×	1.72
H1 over 111.5	57.8%	58.1%	59.0%	0.99×	1.72
H1 under 113.5	52.0%	52.6%	47.6%	1.11×	1.90
H1 over 112.5	51.1%	52.6%	55.8%	0.94×	1.90
H1 under 115.5	54.3%	52.5%	53.6%	0.98×	1.90
H1 over 115.5	45.8%	47.5%	46.4%	1.02×	2.11
H1 under 112.5	48.9%	47.4%	44.2%	1.07×	2.11
H1 over 113.5	48.0%	47.4%	52.4%	0.90×	2.11
H1 under 111.5	42.2%	41.9%	41.0%	1.02×	2.39
H1 over 114.5	45.0%	41.8%	49.6%	0.84×	2.39
H1 under 110.5	42.8%	41.8%	38.1%	1.10×	2.39
H1 over 116.5	39.0%	37.3%	43.4%	0.86×	2.68
H1 under 108.5	36.9%	37.3%	32.3%	1.15×	2.68
H1 over 117.5	39.8%	36.7%	40.4%	0.91×	2.72
H1 under 109.5	36.3%	36.7%	35.0%	1.05×	2.72
H1 over 118.5	33.2%	32.6%	37.1%	0.88×	3.07
H1 over 119.5	34.1%	31.9%	34.1%	0.94×	3.13
H1 under 105.5	28.6%	26.5%	24.2%	1.09×	3.77
H1 over 121.5	25.3%	26.5%	28.8%	0.92×	3.77
H1 under 106.5	28.2%	26.1%	26.7%	0.98×	3.84
H1 over 122.5	26.1%	26.0%	26.0%	1.00×	3.84
H1 under 101.5	19.1%	17.5%	15.1%	1.16×	5.72
H1 over 125.5	16.6%	17.5%	19.3%	0.90×	5.73
H1 under 102.5	18.9%	16.8%	17.0%	0.99×	5.96
H1 over 126.5	17.3%	16.8%	17.2%	0.97×	5.96

H2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Phoenix Suns to win H2	55.6%	55.0%	51.6%	1.07×	1.82
Golden State Warriors to win H2	40.9%	43.5%	44.7%	0.97×	2.30
H2 tied	3.5%	3.9%	3.7%	1.06×	25.36

H2 total 40

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H2 under 123.5	83.9%	81.8%	76.9%	1.06×	1.22
H2 over 99.5	80.9%	81.8%	84.4%	0.97×	1.22
H2 under 124.5	83.2%	81.5%	79.1%	1.03×	1.23
H2 over 100.5	81.1%	81.5%	82.4%	0.99×	1.23
H2 under 119.5	75.1%	75.8%	66.4%	1.14×	1.32
H2 under 120.5	74.4%	72.5%	69.3%	1.05×	1.38
H2 over 104.5	71.7%	72.5%	73.9%	0.98×	1.38
H2 over 103.5	71.3%	72.2%	76.2%	0.95×	1.39
H2 under 116.5	67.2%	66.4%	58.1%	1.14×	1.51
H2 under 117.5	66.4%	64.4%	61.1%	1.05×	1.55
H2 over 107.5	63.4%	62.6%	66.2%	0.94×	1.60
H2 under 115.5	60.7%	62.6%	55.4%	1.13×	1.60
H2 over 106.5	63.0%	61.6%	68.8%	0.90×	1.62
H2 under 114.5	61.4%	61.6%	52.5%	1.17×	1.62
H2 over 109.5	57.5%	58.0%	60.9%	0.95×	1.72
H2 over 108.5	57.0%	57.3%	63.8%	0.90×	1.74
H2 under 112.5	55.4%	57.3%	47.4%	1.21×	1.74
H2 under 111.5	52.3%	52.4%	44.7%	1.17×	1.91
H2 over 110.5	50.8%	52.4%	58.1%	0.90×	1.91
H2 under 113.5	54.7%	52.1%	50.1%	1.04×	1.92
H2 over 113.5	45.3%	47.9%	49.9%	0.96×	2.09
H2 under 110.5	49.2%	47.6%	41.9%	1.14×	2.10
H2 over 111.5	47.7%	47.6%	55.3%	0.86×	2.10
H2 over 112.5	44.6%	42.7%	52.6%	0.81×	2.34
H2 under 108.5	43.0%	42.7%	36.2%	1.18×	2.34
H2 under 109.5	42.5%	42.0%	39.1%	1.07×	2.38
H2 over 114.5	38.6%	38.4%	47.5%	0.81×	2.61
H2 under 106.5	37.0%	38.4%	31.2%	1.23×	2.61
H2 over 115.5	39.3%	37.4%	44.6%	0.84×	2.67
H2 under 107.5	36.6%	37.4%	33.8%	1.11×	2.67
H2 over 117.5	33.6%	35.6%	38.9%	0.91×	2.81
H2 over 116.5	32.8%	33.6%	41.9%	0.80×	2.97
H2 under 103.5	28.7%	27.8%	23.8%	1.17×	3.59
H2 under 104.5	28.3%	27.5%	26.1%	1.05×	3.63
H2 over 120.5	25.6%	27.5%	30.7%	0.90×	3.64
H2 over 119.5	24.9%	24.2%	33.6%	0.72×	4.13
H2 under 100.5	18.9%	18.5%	17.6%	1.05×	5.41
H2 over 124.5	16.8%	18.5%	20.9%	0.89×	5.41
H2 under 99.5	19.1%	18.2%	15.6%	1.17×	5.50
H2 over 123.5	16.1%	18.2%	23.1%	0.79×	5.50

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Phoenix Suns leading at half time	55.7%	56.9%	52.8%	1.08×	1.76
Golden State Warriors leading at half time	40.8%	42.8%	44.1%	0.97×	2.34
Level at half time	3.4%	3.8%	3.1%	1.22×	26.41

Handicap 60

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Phoenix Suns +20.5	95.4%	97.4%	93.1%	1.05×	1.03
Phoenix Suns +18.5	93.9%	91.1%	91.5%	1.00×	1.10
Phoenix Suns +16.5	92.0%	91.1%	89.7%	1.02×	1.10
Phoenix Suns +14.5	89.8%	85.9%	87.0%	0.99×	1.16
Phoenix Suns +12.5	87.0%	85.9%	83.9%	1.02×	1.16
Golden State Warriors +20.5	86.7%	85.9%	89.1%	0.96×	1.16
Phoenix Suns +10.5	83.9%	81.1%	80.3%	1.01×	1.23
Golden State Warriors +18.5	83.5%	81.1%	86.4%	0.94×	1.23
Phoenix Suns +9.5	82.1%	81.1%	78.1%	1.04×	1.23
Phoenix Suns +8.5	80.2%	81.1%	75.7%	1.07×	1.23
Golden State Warriors +16.5	79.8%	76.5%	83.5%	0.92×	1.31
Phoenix Suns +7.5	78.2%	76.5%	73.0%	1.05×	1.31
Phoenix Suns +6.5	76.1%	76.5%	70.6%	1.08×	1.31
Golden State Warriors +14.5	75.7%	76.5%	80.1%	0.95×	1.31
Phoenix Suns +5.5	73.9%	71.6%	68.0%	1.05×	1.40
Phoenix Suns +4.5	71.6%	71.6%	65.7%	1.09×	1.40
Golden State Warriors +12.5	71.1%	71.6%	76.0%	0.94×	1.40
Phoenix Suns +3.5	69.2%	66.7%	63.1%	1.06×	1.50
Phoenix Suns +2.5	66.7%	66.7%	60.5%	1.10×	1.50
Golden State Warriors +10.5	66.2%	66.7%	71.0%	0.94×	1.50
Phoenix Suns +1.5	64.1%	61.9%	57.9%	1.07×	1.62
Golden State Warriors +9.5	63.6%	61.9%	68.7%	0.90×	1.62
Golden State Warriors +8.5	60.9%	61.9%	65.9%	0.94×	1.62
Phoenix Suns −1.5	58.7%	57.1%	53.7%	1.06×	1.75
Golden State Warriors +7.5	58.2%	57.1%	63.0%	0.91×	1.75
Phoenix Suns −2.5	55.9%	57.1%	50.9%	1.12×	1.75
Golden State Warriors +6.5	55.4%	57.1%	60.0%	0.95×	1.75
Phoenix Suns −3.5	53.1%	52.4%	48.4%	1.08×	1.91
Golden State Warriors +5.5	52.6%	52.4%	57.1%	0.92×	1.91
Phoenix Suns −4.5	50.2%	52.4%	46.0%	1.14×	1.91
Golden State Warriors +4.5	49.8%	47.6%	54.1%	0.88×	2.10
Phoenix Suns −5.5	47.4%	47.6%	42.9%	1.11×	2.10
Golden State Warriors +3.5	46.9%	47.6%	51.6%	0.92×	2.10
Golden State Warriors +2.5	44.1%	42.9%	49.1%	0.88×	2.33
Phoenix Suns −6.5	44.6%	42.9%	40.0%	1.07×	2.33
Golden State Warriors +1.5	41.3%	42.9%	46.3%	0.93×	2.33
Phoenix Suns −7.5	41.8%	42.9%	37.0%	1.16×	2.33
Phoenix Suns −8.5	39.1%	38.1%	34.1%	1.12×	2.63
Phoenix Suns −9.5	36.5%	38.1%	31.3%	1.22×	2.63
Golden State Warriors −1.5	35.9%	38.1%	42.1%	0.90×	2.63
Golden State Warriors −2.5	33.3%	33.3%	39.5%	0.84×	3.01
Phoenix Suns −10.5	33.8%	33.3%	29.0%	1.15×	3.01
Golden State Warriors −3.5	30.8%	33.3%	36.9%	0.90×	3.01
Golden State Warriors −4.5	28.4%	28.4%	34.3%	0.83×	3.53
Phoenix Suns −12.5	28.9%	28.4%	24.0%	1.18×	3.53
Golden State Warriors −5.5	26.1%	28.4%	32.0%	0.89×	3.53
Phoenix Suns −14.5	24.3%	23.5%	19.9%	1.19×	4.25
Golden State Warriors −6.5	23.9%	23.5%	29.4%	0.80×	4.25
Golden State Warriors −7.5	21.8%	23.5%	27.0%	0.87×	4.25
Phoenix Suns −16.5	20.2%	23.5%	16.5%	1.43×	4.25
Golden State Warriors −8.5	19.8%	18.9%	24.3%	0.78×	5.29
Golden State Warriors −9.5	17.9%	18.9%	21.9%	0.86×	5.29
Golden State Warriors −10.5	16.1%	18.9%	19.7%	0.96×	5.30
Phoenix Suns −18.5	16.5%	18.9%	13.6%	1.39×	5.30
Golden State Warriors −12.5	13.0%	14.1%	16.1%	0.87×	7.09
Phoenix Suns −20.5	13.3%	14.1%	10.9%	1.30×	7.09
Golden State Warriors −14.5	10.2%	14.1%	13.0%	1.09×	7.09
Golden State Warriors −16.5	8.0%	8.9%	10.3%	0.86×	11.25
Golden State Warriors −18.5	6.1%	8.9%	8.5%	1.04×	11.25
Golden State Warriors −20.5	4.6%	2.6%	6.9%	0.37×	38.72

Highest scoring half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	56.5%	52.6%	53.5%	0.98×	1.90
2nd half highest scoring	43.5%	47.4%	46.5%	1.02×	2.11

Highest scoring quarter 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 highest scoring	28.2%	27.4%	29.2%	0.94×	3.65
Q3 highest scoring	27.9%	27.4%	27.5%	1.00×	3.65
Q2 highest scoring	26.6%	27.4%	26.3%	1.04×	3.65
Q4 highest scoring	17.3%	18.3%	17.0%	1.08×	5.46

HT/FT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Phoenix Suns at HT / Phoenix Suns at FT	45.2%	46.6%	40.8%	1.14×	2.15
Golden State Warriors at HT / Golden State Warriors at FT	26.7%	29.6%	30.9%	0.96×	3.38
Golden State Warriors at HT / Phoenix Suns at FT	14.2%	12.2%	13.3%	0.92×	8.17
Phoenix Suns at HT / Golden State Warriors at FT	10.5%	12.2%	12.0%	1.02×	8.18
Level at HT / Phoenix Suns at FT	2.0%	2.1%	1.7%	1.22×	47.76
Level at HT / Golden State Warriors at FT	1.4%	2.1%	1.4%	1.49×	47.77

Moneyline 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Phoenix Suns to win	61.4%	60.6%	55.7%	1.09×	1.65
Golden State Warriors to win	38.6%	39.4%	44.3%	0.89×	2.54

Odd/Even 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Total points odd	51.4%	50.5%	51.0%	0.99×	1.98
Phoenix Suns even	50.0%	50.5%	49.7%	1.02×	1.98
Golden State Warriors even	50.0%	50.5%	50.3%	1.00×	1.98
Phoenix Suns odd	50.0%	49.5%	50.3%	0.98×	2.02
Golden State Warriors odd	50.0%	49.5%	49.7%	1.00×	2.02
Total points even	48.6%	49.5%	49.0%	1.01×	2.02

Overtime 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No overtime	93.1%	94.0%	94.8%	0.99×	1.06
Match to go to overtime	6.9%	6.0%	5.2%	1.16×	16.65

Q1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Phoenix Suns to win Q1	52.7%	52.6%	51.3%	1.02×	1.90
Golden State Warriors to win Q1	42.5%	42.9%	44.1%	0.97×	2.33
Q1 tied	4.7%	4.2%	4.6%	0.90×	23.94

Q1 total 32

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 under 65.5	83.4%	83.2%	83.2%	1.00×	1.20
Q1 over 49.5	81.6%	83.2%	82.7%	1.01×	1.20
Q1 over 48.5	82.9%	82.8%	85.6%	0.97×	1.21
Q1 under 64.5	82.5%	82.8%	80.1%	1.03×	1.21
Q1 under 62.5	73.3%	73.1%	72.9%	1.00×	1.37
Q1 over 52.5	70.9%	73.1%	72.4%	1.01×	1.37
Q1 over 51.5	72.5%	72.7%	76.0%	0.96×	1.38
Q1 under 61.5	71.9%	72.7%	68.5%	1.06×	1.38
Q1 under 60.5	65.0%	69.2%	64.5%	1.07×	1.45
Q1 over 54.5	62.4%	62.3%	63.3%	0.98×	1.61
Q1 over 53.5	64.1%	61.7%	68.2%	0.90×	1.62
Q1 under 59.5	63.5%	61.7%	60.0%	1.03×	1.62
Q1 under 58.5	56.1%	59.2%	55.7%	1.06×	1.69
Q1 over 55.5	55.0%	58.6%	59.2%	0.99×	1.71
Q1 under 57.5	54.3%	52.7%	50.4%	1.04×	1.90
Q1 over 56.5	50.4%	52.7%	54.6%	0.96×	1.90
Q1 under 56.5	49.6%	47.3%	45.4%	1.04×	2.11
Q1 over 57.5	45.7%	47.3%	49.6%	0.96×	2.11
Q1 under 55.5	45.0%	41.4%	40.8%	1.01×	2.42
Q1 over 58.5	43.9%	40.8%	44.3%	0.92×	2.45
Q1 over 59.5	36.5%	38.3%	40.0%	0.96×	2.61
Q1 under 53.5	35.9%	38.3%	31.8%	1.21×	2.61
Q1 under 54.5	37.6%	37.7%	36.7%	1.03×	2.65
Q1 over 60.5	35.0%	30.8%	35.5%	0.87×	3.25
Q1 over 61.5	28.1%	27.3%	31.5%	0.87×	3.66
Q1 under 51.5	27.5%	27.3%	24.0%	1.14×	3.66
Q1 under 52.5	29.1%	26.9%	27.6%	0.97×	3.72
Q1 over 62.5	26.7%	26.9%	27.1%	0.99×	3.72
Q1 over 64.5	17.5%	17.2%	19.9%	0.86×	5.83
Q1 under 48.5	17.1%	17.2%	14.4%	1.19×	5.83
Q1 under 49.5	18.4%	16.8%	17.3%	0.97×	5.95
Q1 over 65.5	16.6%	16.8%	16.8%	1.00×	5.96

Q2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Phoenix Suns to win Q2	52.7%	51.4%	49.3%	1.04×	1.95
Golden State Warriors to win Q2	42.6%	43.9%	46.2%	0.95×	2.28
Q2 tied	4.7%	4.4%	4.5%	0.98×	22.88

Q2 total 32

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q2 under 65.5	84.1%	83.1%	83.6%	0.99×	1.20
Q2 over 49.5	80.5%	83.1%	81.8%	1.02×	1.20
Q2 under 64.5	83.2%	83.0%	80.9%	1.03×	1.21
Q2 over 48.5	81.9%	83.0%	84.7%	0.98×	1.21
Q2 under 62.5	74.2%	73.0%	74.4%	0.98×	1.37
Q2 under 61.5	72.9%	72.0%	70.4%	1.02×	1.39
Q2 over 51.5	71.2%	72.0%	74.2%	0.97×	1.39
Q2 over 52.5	69.6%	67.7%	70.3%	0.96×	1.48
Q2 under 60.5	66.2%	67.6%	65.7%	1.03×	1.48
Q2 over 54.5	61.0%	62.0%	61.1%	1.01×	1.61
Q2 under 59.5	64.7%	60.7%	61.9%	0.98×	1.65
Q2 over 53.5	62.8%	60.7%	65.8%	0.92×	1.65
Q2 under 57.5	55.7%	58.2%	52.7%	1.10×	1.72
Q2 under 58.5	57.4%	57.8%	57.3%	1.01×	1.73
Q2 over 55.5	53.7%	52.7%	56.3%	0.94×	1.90
Q2 under 56.5	51.0%	52.7%	48.3%	1.09×	1.90
Q2 over 56.5	49.0%	47.3%	51.7%	0.92×	2.11
Q2 under 55.5	46.3%	47.3%	43.7%	1.08×	2.11
Q2 over 58.5	42.6%	42.2%	42.7%	0.99×	2.37
Q2 over 57.5	44.3%	41.8%	47.3%	0.89×	2.39
Q2 under 53.5	37.2%	39.3%	34.2%	1.15×	2.55
Q2 over 59.5	35.3%	39.3%	38.1%	1.03×	2.55
Q2 under 54.5	39.0%	38.0%	38.9%	0.98×	2.63
Q2 over 60.5	33.8%	32.4%	34.3%	0.94×	3.09
Q2 under 52.5	30.4%	32.3%	29.7%	1.09×	3.10
Q2 under 51.5	28.8%	28.0%	25.8%	1.09×	3.57
Q2 over 61.5	27.1%	28.0%	29.6%	0.95×	3.57
Q2 over 62.5	25.8%	27.0%	25.6%	1.05×	3.71
Q2 under 48.5	18.1%	17.0%	15.3%	1.11×	5.88
Q2 over 64.5	16.8%	17.0%	19.1%	0.89×	5.88
Q2 under 49.5	19.5%	16.9%	18.2%	0.92×	5.93
Q2 over 65.5	15.9%	16.9%	16.4%	1.03×	5.93

Q3 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Phoenix Suns to win Q3	52.7%	52.7%	50.9%	1.04×	1.90
Golden State Warriors to win Q3	42.6%	42.3%	44.3%	0.95×	2.37
Q3 tied	4.7%	4.3%	4.9%	0.88×	23.43

Q3 total 32

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q3 over 48.5	83.6%	82.3%	85.6%	0.96×	1.22
Q3 under 64.5	82.2%	82.3%	79.2%	1.04×	1.22
Q3 under 65.5	83.2%	82.2%	82.2%	1.00×	1.22
Q3 over 49.5	82.3%	82.2%	82.7%	0.99×	1.22
Q3 under 62.5	72.8%	72.5%	71.9%	1.01×	1.38
Q3 over 52.5	71.7%	72.5%	72.2%	1.00×	1.38
Q3 over 51.5	73.3%	71.8%	76.1%	0.94×	1.39
Q3 under 61.5	71.5%	71.8%	67.7%	1.06×	1.39
Q3 under 60.5	64.5%	62.6%	63.5%	0.99×	1.60
Q3 over 54.5	63.2%	62.6%	63.9%	0.98×	1.60
Q3 over 53.5	65.0%	62.0%	68.3%	0.91×	1.61
Q3 under 59.5	62.9%	61.9%	59.0%	1.05×	1.61
Q3 over 55.5	55.8%	58.4%	59.9%	0.97×	1.71
Q3 under 58.5	55.4%	57.8%	54.8%	1.05×	1.73
Q3 under 57.5	53.6%	52.3%	49.8%	1.05×	1.91
Q3 over 56.5	51.1%	52.3%	55.0%	0.95×	1.91
Q3 under 56.5	48.9%	47.7%	45.0%	1.06×	2.10
Q3 over 57.5	46.4%	47.7%	50.2%	0.95×	2.10
Q3 over 58.5	44.6%	42.2%	45.2%	0.93×	2.37
Q3 under 55.5	44.2%	41.6%	40.1%	1.04×	2.40
Q3 over 59.5	37.1%	38.1%	41.0%	0.93×	2.63
Q3 under 53.5	35.0%	38.0%	31.7%	1.20×	2.63
Q3 under 54.5	36.8%	37.4%	36.1%	1.03×	2.67
Q3 over 60.5	35.5%	37.4%	36.5%	1.03×	2.67
Q3 over 61.5	28.5%	28.2%	32.3%	0.87×	3.55
Q3 under 51.5	26.7%	28.2%	23.9%	1.18×	3.55
Q3 under 52.5	28.3%	27.5%	27.8%	0.99×	3.63
Q3 over 62.5	27.2%	27.5%	28.1%	0.98×	3.64
Q3 under 49.5	17.7%	17.8%	17.3%	1.03×	5.62
Q3 over 65.5	16.8%	17.8%	17.8%	1.00×	5.63
Q3 over 64.5	17.8%	17.7%	20.8%	0.85×	5.66
Q3 under 48.5	16.4%	17.7%	14.4%	1.23×	5.66

Q4 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Phoenix Suns to win Q4	52.5%	51.4%	48.3%	1.06×	1.95
Golden State Warriors to win Q4	42.6%	43.1%	46.4%	0.93×	2.32
Q4 tied	4.8%	5.2%	5.3%	0.98×	19.28

Q4 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q4 under 62.5	83.6%	82.0%	80.4%	1.02×	1.22
Q4 over 46.5	80.7%	82.0%	81.7%	1.00×	1.22
Q4 under 59.5	73.6%	71.5%	70.2%	1.02×	1.40
Q4 over 49.5	69.9%	67.4%	72.3%	0.93×	1.48
Q4 under 57.5	65.6%	67.4%	61.9%	1.09×	1.48
Q4 over 51.5	61.5%	61.4%	64.7%	0.95×	1.63
Q4 under 55.5	56.7%	58.4%	52.9%	1.10×	1.71
Q4 over 53.5	52.4%	52.5%	55.7%	0.94×	1.91
Q4 under 54.5	52.2%	52.5%	48.6%	1.08×	1.91
Q4 over 54.5	47.8%	47.5%	51.4%	0.92×	2.11
Q4 under 53.5	47.6%	47.5%	44.3%	1.07×	2.11
Q4 over 55.5	43.3%	41.6%	47.1%	0.88×	2.40
Q4 under 51.5	38.5%	38.6%	35.3%	1.09×	2.59
Q4 over 57.5	34.4%	32.6%	38.1%	0.86×	3.07
Q4 under 49.5	30.1%	32.6%	27.7%	1.18×	3.07
Q4 over 59.5	26.4%	28.5%	29.8%	0.96×	3.51
Q4 under 46.5	19.3%	18.0%	18.3%	0.98×	5.56
Q4 over 62.5	16.4%	18.0%	19.6%	0.92×	5.56

Team total 52

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Phoenix Suns under 124.5	81.4%	80.7%	76.8%	1.05×	1.24
Golden State Warriors over 99.5	80.8%	80.7%	85.9%	0.94×	1.24
Golden State Warriors over 101.5	79.7%	78.3%	82.0%	0.96×	1.28
Golden State Warriors under 121.5	79.6%	78.3%	74.7%	1.05×	1.28
Golden State Warriors under 119.5	79.8%	75.1%	70.3%	1.07×	1.33
Phoenix Suns over 104.5	78.7%	75.1%	79.8%	0.94×	1.33
Golden State Warriors under 118.5	71.9%	71.8%	67.4%	1.07×	1.39
Phoenix Suns under 121.5	73.9%	70.7%	69.6%	1.02×	1.41
Golden State Warriors under 116.5	71.9%	70.7%	61.5%	1.15×	1.41
Golden State Warriors over 102.5	73.0%	70.7%	79.7%	0.89×	1.41
Phoenix Suns over 107.5	70.6%	70.7%	72.7%	0.97×	1.41
Phoenix Suns under 119.5	68.1%	66.4%	63.5%	1.05×	1.51
Golden State Warriors over 104.5	67.1%	66.4%	75.0%	0.89×	1.51
Golden State Warriors under 114.5	65.9%	66.4%	55.5%	1.20×	1.51
Phoenix Suns over 109.5	64.6%	61.2%	67.0%	0.91×	1.63
Phoenix Suns under 117.5	61.8%	61.2%	57.8%	1.06×	1.63
Golden State Warriors over 106.5	60.7%	61.2%	68.9%	0.89×	1.63
Golden State Warriors under 112.5	59.5%	57.1%	48.5%	1.18×	1.75
Phoenix Suns over 111.5	58.1%	57.1%	61.1%	0.93×	1.75
Phoenix Suns under 115.5	55.3%	57.1%	51.6%	1.11×	1.75
Golden State Warriors over 108.5	54.0%	52.3%	64.0%	0.82×	1.91
Phoenix Suns over 113.5	51.5%	52.3%	54.3%	0.96×	1.91
Phoenix Suns under 114.5	51.9%	52.3%	48.6%	1.07×	1.91
Golden State Warriors under 110.5	52.8%	52.3%	42.1%	1.24×	1.91
Golden State Warriors over 109.5	50.6%	52.3%	60.9%	0.86×	1.91
Golden State Warriors over 111.5	50.0%	52.2%	54.6%	0.96×	1.91
Golden State Warriors under 111.5	50.0%	47.8%	45.4%	1.05×	2.09
Golden State Warriors under 109.5	49.4%	47.7%	39.1%	1.22×	2.09
Phoenix Suns under 113.5	48.5%	47.7%	45.7%	1.04×	2.09
Phoenix Suns over 114.5	48.1%	47.7%	51.4%	0.93×	2.09
Golden State Warriors over 110.5	47.2%	47.7%	57.9%	0.83×	2.09
Golden State Warriors under 108.5	46.0%	47.7%	36.0%	1.33×	2.09
Phoenix Suns over 115.5	44.7%	42.9%	48.4%	0.89×	2.33
Phoenix Suns under 111.5	41.9%	42.9%	38.9%	1.10×	2.33
Golden State Warriors over 112.5	40.5%	42.9%	51.5%	0.83×	2.33
Phoenix Suns over 117.5	38.2%	38.8%	42.2%	0.92×	2.58
Golden State Warriors under 106.5	39.3%	38.8%	31.1%	1.25×	2.58
Phoenix Suns under 109.5	35.4%	38.8%	33.0%	1.18×	2.58
Golden State Warriors over 114.5	34.1%	33.6%	44.5%	0.76×	2.98
Phoenix Suns over 119.5	31.9%	33.6%	36.5%	0.92×	2.98
Golden State Warriors under 104.5	32.9%	33.6%	25.0%	1.35×	2.98
Phoenix Suns under 107.5	29.4%	29.3%	27.3%	1.07×	3.42
Golden State Warriors over 116.5	28.1%	29.3%	38.5%	0.76×	3.42
Golden State Warriors under 102.5	27.0%	29.3%	20.3%	1.44×	3.42
Phoenix Suns over 121.5	26.1%	29.3%	30.4%	0.96×	3.42
Golden State Warriors over 118.5	28.1%	28.2%	32.6%	0.86×	3.55
Phoenix Suns under 104.5	21.3%	24.9%	20.2%	1.23×	4.02
Golden State Warriors over 119.5	20.2%	24.9%	29.7%	0.84×	4.02
Golden State Warriors under 101.5	20.3%	21.7%	18.0%	1.20×	4.60
Golden State Warriors over 121.5	20.4%	21.7%	25.3%	0.86×	4.60
Golden State Warriors under 99.5	19.2%	19.3%	14.1%	1.37×	5.18
Phoenix Suns over 124.5	18.6%	19.3%	23.2%	0.83×	5.18

Total points 52

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 246.5 points	86.2%	85.5%	82.0%	1.04×	1.17
Over 206.5 points	85.1%	85.5%	86.7%	0.99×	1.17
Over 203.5 points	86.3%	85.0%	89.8%	0.95×	1.18
Under 243.5 points	86.0%	85.0%	78.2%	1.09×	1.18
Under 241.5 points	79.5%	78.1%	75.5%	1.03×	1.28
Over 211.5 points	78.1%	78.1%	79.7%	0.98×	1.28
Over 208.5 points	79.5%	75.6%	84.1%	0.90×	1.32
Under 238.5 points	79.1%	75.6%	70.9%	1.07×	1.32
Under 236.5 points	71.0%	71.0%	67.3%	1.06×	1.41
Under 233.5 points	70.5%	70.8%	61.4%	1.15×	1.41
Over 213.5 points	70.9%	70.8%	76.4%	0.93×	1.41
Over 216.5 points	65.1%	65.9%	71.6%	0.92×	1.52
Over 219.5 points	63.6%	61.8%	66.1%	0.93×	1.62
Under 231.5 points	61.4%	61.7%	57.4%	1.08×	1.62
Under 230.5 points	64.6%	61.5%	55.4%	1.11×	1.63
Over 218.5 points	61.0%	61.5%	67.8%	0.91×	1.63
Under 228.5 points	60.4%	61.5%	51.3%	1.20×	1.63
Under 226.5 points	56.2%	56.5%	47.3%	1.20×	1.77
Over 220.5 points	56.8%	56.5%	64.2%	0.88×	1.77
Over 221.5 points	59.6%	56.0%	62.2%	0.90×	1.79
Under 229.5 points	57.3%	56.0%	53.3%	1.05×	1.79
Over 222.5 points	52.5%	52.3%	60.4%	0.87×	1.91
Under 224.5 points	51.9%	52.3%	43.5%	1.20×	1.91
Over 223.5 points	50.2%	52.3%	58.3%	0.90×	1.91
Under 227.5 points	53.1%	52.2%	49.4%	1.06×	1.92
Over 225.5 points	51.2%	52.2%	54.7%	0.95×	1.92
Under 225.5 points	48.8%	47.8%	45.3%	1.05×	2.09
Over 227.5 points	46.9%	47.8%	50.6%	0.94×	2.09
Under 223.5 points	49.8%	47.7%	41.7%	1.14×	2.10
Under 222.5 points	47.5%	47.7%	39.6%	1.20×	2.10
Over 224.5 points	48.1%	47.7%	56.5%	0.84×	2.10
Over 229.5 points	42.7%	44.0%	46.7%	0.94×	2.27
Under 221.5 points	40.4%	44.0%	37.8%	1.16×	2.27
Over 226.5 points	43.8%	43.5%	52.7%	0.82×	2.30
Under 220.5 points	43.2%	43.5%	35.8%	1.21×	2.30
Over 228.5 points	39.6%	38.5%	48.7%	0.79×	2.60
Under 218.5 points	39.0%	38.5%	32.2%	1.20×	2.60
Over 230.5 points	35.4%	38.5%	44.6%	0.86×	2.60
Over 231.5 points	38.6%	38.3%	42.6%	0.90×	2.61
Under 219.5 points	36.4%	38.2%	33.9%	1.13×	2.61
Under 216.5 points	34.9%	34.1%	28.4%	1.20×	2.93
Over 233.5 points	29.5%	29.2%	38.6%	0.75×	3.43
Under 213.5 points	29.1%	29.2%	23.6%	1.24×	3.43
Over 236.5 points	29.0%	29.0%	32.7%	0.89×	3.45
Over 238.5 points	20.9%	24.4%	29.1%	0.84×	4.10
Under 208.5 points	20.5%	24.4%	15.9%	1.53×	4.10
Under 211.5 points	21.9%	21.9%	20.3%	1.08×	4.57
Over 241.5 points	20.5%	21.9%	24.5%	0.89×	4.57
Over 243.5 points	14.0%	15.0%	21.8%	0.69×	6.68
Under 203.5 points	13.7%	15.0%	10.2%	1.47×	6.68
Under 206.5 points	14.9%	14.5%	13.3%	1.10×	6.88
Over 246.5 points	13.8%	14.5%	18.0%	0.81×	6.88

Win both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Phoenix Suns to win both halves	28.9%	27.2%	25.2%	1.08×	3.68
Golden State Warriors to win both halves	14.6%	14.1%	17.8%	0.79×	7.11

Winning margin 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Phoenix Suns by 1-5	14.0%	12.3%	12.8%	0.96×	8.11
Phoenix Suns by 6-10	13.6%	12.3%	13.9%	0.88×	8.11
Golden State Warriors by 1-5	12.5%	12.3%	12.3%	1.01×	8.11
Phoenix Suns by 11-15	11.7%	12.3%	10.8%	1.14×	8.11
Golden State Warriors by 6-10	10.0%	7.5%	12.3%	0.61×	13.40
Phoenix Suns by 16-20	8.9%	7.5%	7.3%	1.02×	13.40
Golden State Warriors by 11-15	7.1%	7.5%	8.0%	0.93×	13.40
Phoenix Suns by 26+	7.2%	7.5%	6.2%	1.21×	13.40
Phoenix Suns by 21-25	6.1%	7.5%	4.7%	1.58×	13.40
Golden State Warriors by 16-20	4.5%	2.0%	4.9%	0.42×	49.29
Golden State Warriors by 21-25	2.5%	2.0%	3.0%	0.67×	49.31
Golden State Warriors by 26+	2.1%	2.0%	3.9%	0.53×	49.31

Phoenix Suns v Golden State Warriors — Prediction, Odds & Stats

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