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Rice Owls v UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 25 November 2026 · NCAAW · 2027

NCAAW results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Rice Owls win
94.1%
Draw
0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros win
5.9%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 73.89–56.55 74-57 0% 52% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rice Owls to score 100+ 0.4% 0.4% 1.8% 0.20× 283.28
Rice Owls to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.64× 283.35
Rice Owls to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 2.91× 283.36
Rice Owls to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 7.58× 283.36
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.71× 283.36
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.74× 283.36
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 18.95× 283.36
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 37.89× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 6.32× 283.36
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rice Owls to win H1 81.0% 83.6% 56.4% 1.48× 1.20
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros to win H1 16.0% 16.9% 39.9% 0.42× 5.93
H1 tied 3.0% 3.9% 3.7% 1.05× 25.87
H1 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 over 50.5 89.0% 87.7% 84.5% 1.04× 1.14
H1 under 74.5 88.1% 87.7% 87.2% 1.01× 1.14
H1 over 54.5 79.4% 77.4% 74.0% 1.05× 1.29
H1 under 70.5 78.3% 77.4% 78.9% 0.98× 1.29
H1 over 57.5 69.7% 67.4% 64.8% 1.04× 1.48
H1 under 67.5 68.6% 67.4% 70.4% 0.96× 1.48
H1 over 59.5 62.4% 62.7% 57.8% 1.08× 1.59
H1 under 65.5 61.2% 62.7% 63.9% 0.98× 1.59
H1 over 61.5 54.5% 52.6% 50.2% 1.05× 1.90
H1 under 63.5 53.4% 52.6% 57.1% 0.92× 1.90
H1 over 62.5 50.6% 52.6% 46.3% 1.14× 1.90
H1 under 62.5 49.4% 47.4% 53.7% 0.88× 2.11
H1 over 63.5 46.6% 47.4% 42.9% 1.10× 2.11
H1 under 61.5 45.5% 47.4% 49.8% 0.95× 2.11
H1 over 65.5 38.8% 37.3% 36.1% 1.03× 2.68
H1 under 59.5 37.6% 37.3% 42.2% 0.88× 2.68
H1 over 67.5 31.4% 32.6% 29.6% 1.10× 3.07
H1 under 57.5 30.3% 32.6% 35.2% 0.93× 3.07
H1 over 70.5 21.7% 22.6% 21.1% 1.07× 4.43
H1 under 54.5 20.6% 22.6% 26.0% 0.87× 4.43
H1 over 74.5 11.9% 12.3% 12.8% 0.96× 8.14
H1 under 50.5 11.0% 12.3% 15.5% 0.80× 8.14
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rice Owls to win H2 82.5% 79.5% 56.0% 1.42× 1.26
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros to win H2 14.8% 14.8% 40.6% 0.37× 6.75
H2 tied 2.7% 3.9% 3.4% 1.16× 25.37
H2 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 over 56.5 87.9% 85.2% 84.1% 1.01× 1.17
H2 under 80.5 87.1% 85.2% 84.0% 1.01× 1.17
H2 over 60.5 78.2% 75.8% 74.5% 1.02× 1.32
H2 under 76.5 77.4% 75.8% 75.6% 1.00× 1.32
H2 over 63.5 68.7% 66.4% 65.3% 1.02× 1.51
H2 under 73.5 68.0% 66.4% 67.1% 0.99× 1.51
H2 over 65.5 61.6% 61.6% 58.8% 1.05× 1.62
H2 under 71.5 60.9% 61.6% 61.1% 1.01× 1.62
H2 over 67.5 54.2% 52.4% 52.1% 1.00× 1.91
H2 under 69.5 53.5% 52.4% 54.8% 0.96× 1.91
H2 over 68.5 50.3% 52.4% 48.7% 1.08× 1.91
H2 under 68.5 49.7% 47.6% 51.3% 0.93× 2.10
H2 under 67.5 45.8% 47.6% 47.9% 1.00× 2.10
H2 over 69.5 46.5% 47.6% 45.2% 1.05× 2.10
H2 over 71.5 39.1% 38.4% 38.9% 0.99× 2.61
H2 under 65.5 38.4% 38.4% 41.2% 0.93× 2.61
H2 over 73.5 32.0% 33.6% 32.9% 1.02× 2.97
H2 under 63.5 31.3% 33.6% 34.7% 0.97× 2.97
H2 over 76.5 22.6% 24.2% 24.4% 0.99× 4.13
H2 under 60.5 21.8% 24.2% 25.5% 0.95× 4.13
H2 over 80.5 12.9% 14.8% 16.0% 0.93× 6.76
H2 under 56.5 12.1% 14.8% 15.9% 0.93× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rice Owls leading at half time 81.0% 83.3% 56.4% 1.48× 1.20
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros leading at half time 16.0% 17.0% 39.9% 0.43× 5.89
Level at half time 3.0% 3.8% 3.7% 1.03× 26.42
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rice Owls +14.5 99.8% 97.4% 86.7% 1.12× 1.03
Rice Owls +16.5 99.9% 97.4% 89.1% 1.09× 1.03
Rice Owls +18.5 99.9% 97.4% 91.1% 1.07× 1.03
Rice Owls +20.5 100.0% 97.4% 92.7% 1.05× 1.03
Rice Owls +12.5 99.6% 97.4% 83.8% 1.16× 1.03
Rice Owls +2.5 95.9% 97.4% 63.3% 1.54× 1.03
Rice Owls +3.5 96.7% 97.4% 65.7% 1.48× 1.03
Rice Owls +4.5 97.3% 97.4% 67.8% 1.44× 1.03
Rice Owls +5.5 97.8% 97.4% 70.1% 1.39× 1.03
Rice Owls +6.5 98.2% 97.4% 72.3% 1.35× 1.03
Rice Owls +7.5 98.6% 97.4% 74.5% 1.31× 1.03
Rice Owls +8.5 98.9% 97.4% 76.5% 1.27× 1.03
Rice Owls +9.5 99.1% 97.4% 78.7% 1.24× 1.03
Rice Owls +10.5 99.3% 97.4% 80.4% 1.21× 1.03
Rice Owls +1.5 95.1% 97.4% 61.2% 1.59× 1.03
Rice Owls −1.5 92.8% 91.1% 58.7% 1.55× 1.10
Rice Owls −2.5 91.4% 91.1% 56.7% 1.61× 1.10
Rice Owls −3.5 89.7% 85.9% 54.2% 1.58× 1.16
Rice Owls −4.5 87.9% 85.9% 52.2% 1.65× 1.16
Rice Owls −5.5 85.9% 85.9% 49.7% 1.73× 1.16
Rice Owls −6.5 83.6% 81.1% 47.6% 1.70× 1.23
Rice Owls −7.5 81.2% 81.1% 44.8% 1.81× 1.23
Rice Owls −8.5 78.6% 76.5% 42.0% 1.82× 1.31
Rice Owls −9.5 75.8% 76.5% 39.3% 1.95× 1.31
Rice Owls −10.5 72.8% 71.6% 36.8% 1.95× 1.40
Rice Owls −12.5 66.3% 66.7% 32.1% 2.08× 1.50
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros +20.5 62.3% 61.9% 82.0% 0.76× 1.62
Rice Owls −14.5 59.4% 57.1% 27.9% 2.05× 1.75
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros +18.5 55.2% 57.1% 79.3% 0.72× 1.75
Rice Owls −16.5 52.1% 52.4% 24.3% 2.16× 1.91
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros +16.5 47.9% 47.6% 75.7% 0.63× 2.10
Rice Owls −18.5 44.8% 42.9% 20.7% 2.07× 2.33
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros +14.5 40.6% 42.9% 72.1% 0.60× 2.33
Rice Owls −20.5 37.7% 38.1% 18.0% 2.12× 2.63
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros +12.5 33.7% 33.3% 67.9% 0.49× 3.01
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros +10.5 27.2% 28.4% 63.2% 0.45× 3.53
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros +9.5 24.2% 23.5% 60.7% 0.39× 4.25
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros +8.5 21.4% 23.5% 58.0% 0.41× 4.25
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros +7.5 18.8% 18.9% 55.2% 0.34× 5.29
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros +6.5 16.4% 18.9% 52.4% 0.36× 5.30
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros +5.5 14.2% 14.1% 50.3% 0.28× 7.09
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros +4.5 12.1% 14.1% 47.8% 0.30× 7.09
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros +3.5 10.3% 14.1% 45.8% 0.31× 7.09
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros +2.5 8.6% 8.9% 43.3% 0.21× 11.25
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros +1.5 7.2% 8.9% 41.3% 0.22× 11.25
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros −1.5 4.9% 2.6% 38.8% 0.07× 38.72
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros −2.5 4.1% 2.6% 36.7% 0.07× 38.72
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros −3.5 3.3% 2.6% 34.3% 0.08× 38.73
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros −4.5 2.7% 2.6% 32.2% 0.08× 38.73
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros −5.5 2.2% 2.6% 29.9% 0.09× 38.73
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros −6.5 1.8% 2.6% 27.7% 0.09× 38.73
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros −7.5 1.4% 2.6% 25.5% 0.10× 38.73
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros −8.5 1.1% 2.6% 23.5% 0.11× 38.74
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros −9.5 0.9% 2.6% 21.3% 0.12× 38.74
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros −10.5 0.7% 2.6% 19.6% 0.13× 38.74
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros −14.5 0.2% 2.6% 13.3% 0.19× 38.74
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros −16.5 0.1% 2.6% 10.9% 0.24× 38.74
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros −18.5 0.1% 2.6% 8.9% 0.29× 38.74
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros −20.5 0.0% 2.6% 7.3% 0.35× 38.74
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros −12.5 0.4% 2.6% 16.2% 0.16× 38.74
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 72.1% 67.1% 66.7% 1.01× 1.49
1st half highest scoring 27.9% 32.9% 33.3% 0.99× 3.04
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 highest scoring 34.5% 31.9% 31.2% 1.02× 3.14
Q3 highest scoring 32.6% 31.9% 31.3% 1.02× 3.14
Q1 highest scoring 17.2% 18.3% 19.6% 0.94× 5.46
Q2 highest scoring 15.7% 18.3% 17.9% 1.02× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rice Owls at HT / Rice Owls at FT 79.0% 78.1% 48.3% 1.62× 1.28
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros at HT / Rice Owls at FT 12.5% 12.2% 9.8% 1.25× 8.17
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros at HT / UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros at FT 3.6% 2.1% 30.1% 0.07× 47.73
Rice Owls at HT / UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros at FT 2.0% 2.1% 8.2% 0.26× 47.76
Level at HT / Rice Owls at FT 2.6% 2.1% 1.9% 1.09× 47.75
Level at HT / UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros at FT 0.3% 2.1% 1.8% 1.20× 47.79
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rice Owls to win 94.1% 90.6% 59.9% 1.51× 1.10
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros to win 5.9% 9.4% 40.1% 0.23× 10.69
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rice Owls even 50.0% 50.5% 49.4% 1.02× 1.98
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros even 50.2% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
Total points odd 50.6% 50.5% 51.5% 0.98× 1.98
Rice Owls odd 50.0% 49.5% 50.6% 0.98× 2.02
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros odd 49.8% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
Total points even 49.4% 49.5% 48.5% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 97.1% 97.0% 95.6% 1.02× 1.03
Match to go to overtime 2.9% 3.0% 4.4% 0.67× 33.46
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rice Owls to win Q1 71.1% 73.7% 54.7% 1.35× 1.36
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros to win Q1 23.9% 22.1% 40.4% 0.55× 4.52
Q1 tied 5.0% 5.5% 4.9% 1.11× 18.33
Q1 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 over 23.5 88.4% 87.4% 85.4% 1.02× 1.14
Q1 under 39.5 88.3% 87.4% 87.5% 1.00× 1.14
Q1 over 26.5 77.2% 76.9% 72.9% 1.06× 1.30
Q1 under 36.5 77.1% 76.9% 77.4% 0.99× 1.30
Q1 over 28.5 67.3% 67.6% 62.7% 1.08× 1.48
Q1 under 34.5 67.2% 67.6% 68.5% 0.99× 1.48
Q1 over 30.5 55.9% 58.6% 51.2% 1.14× 1.71
Q1 under 32.5 55.9% 58.6% 59.1% 0.99× 1.71
Q1 over 31.5 50.0% 52.7% 46.0% 1.14× 1.90
Q1 under 31.5 50.0% 47.3% 54.0% 0.88× 2.11
Q1 under 30.5 44.1% 41.4% 48.8% 0.85× 2.42
Q1 over 32.5 44.1% 41.4% 40.9% 1.01× 2.42
Q1 under 28.5 32.7% 32.4% 37.3% 0.87× 3.08
Q1 over 34.5 32.8% 32.4% 31.5% 1.03× 3.08
Q1 under 26.5 22.8% 23.1% 27.1% 0.85× 4.33
Q1 over 36.5 22.9% 23.1% 22.6% 1.02× 4.33
Q1 over 39.5 11.7% 12.6% 12.5% 1.01× 7.95
Q1 under 23.5 11.6% 12.6% 14.6% 0.86× 7.95
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rice Owls to win Q2 70.5% 75.1% 52.9% 1.42× 1.33
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros to win Q2 24.5% 20.1% 41.5% 0.49× 4.97
Q2 tied 5.0% 6.1% 5.7% 1.06× 16.51
Q2 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 under 39.5 89.2% 87.3% 88.4% 0.99× 1.15
Q2 over 23.5 87.4% 87.3% 84.6% 1.03× 1.15
Q2 under 36.5 78.6% 76.8% 78.7% 0.98× 1.30
Q2 over 26.5 75.7% 76.8% 71.6% 1.07× 1.30
Q2 under 34.5 69.0% 67.4% 70.1% 0.96× 1.48
Q2 over 28.5 65.5% 67.4% 61.2% 1.10× 1.49
Q2 under 32.5 57.8% 58.2% 60.8% 0.96× 1.72
Q2 over 30.5 54.0% 52.7% 49.9% 1.06× 1.90
Q2 under 31.5 51.9% 52.7% 55.7% 0.95× 1.90
Q2 over 31.5 48.1% 47.3% 44.3% 1.07× 2.11
Q2 under 30.5 46.0% 47.3% 50.1% 0.94× 2.11
Q2 over 32.5 42.2% 41.8% 39.2% 1.07× 2.39
Q2 under 28.5 34.5% 32.6% 38.8% 0.84× 3.06
Q2 over 34.5 31.0% 32.6% 29.9% 1.09× 3.06
Q2 under 26.5 24.3% 23.2% 28.4% 0.82× 4.31
Q2 over 36.5 21.4% 23.2% 21.3% 1.09× 4.31
Q2 under 23.5 12.6% 12.7% 15.4% 0.82× 7.89
Q2 over 39.5 10.8% 12.7% 11.6% 1.09× 7.90
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rice Owls to win Q3 72.4% 73.1% 53.3% 1.37× 1.37
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros to win Q3 22.8% 22.4% 41.8% 0.54× 4.46
Q3 tied 4.8% 4.3% 4.9% 0.86× 23.42
Q3 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 under 42.5 88.3% 87.2% 87.8% 0.99× 1.15
Q3 over 26.5 87.2% 87.2% 83.8% 1.04× 1.15
Q3 under 39.5 77.5% 77.3% 77.9% 0.99× 1.29
Q3 over 29.5 75.7% 77.3% 71.8% 1.08× 1.29
Q3 under 37.5 68.0% 67.8% 69.7% 0.97× 1.48
Q3 over 31.5 65.7% 67.8% 61.6% 1.10× 1.48
Q3 under 35.5 57.0% 58.4% 59.7% 0.98× 1.71
Q3 over 33.5 54.5% 52.3% 50.9% 1.03× 1.91
Q3 under 34.5 51.3% 52.3% 54.6% 0.96× 1.91
Q3 over 34.5 48.7% 47.7% 45.4% 1.05× 2.10
Q3 under 33.5 45.5% 47.7% 49.1% 0.97× 2.10
Q3 over 35.5 43.0% 41.6% 40.3% 1.03× 2.40
Q3 under 31.5 34.3% 32.2% 38.4% 0.84× 3.10
Q3 over 37.5 32.0% 32.2% 30.3% 1.06× 3.10
Q3 under 29.5 24.3% 22.7% 28.2% 0.81× 4.40
Q3 over 39.5 22.5% 22.7% 22.1% 1.03× 4.40
Q3 under 26.5 12.8% 12.8% 16.2% 0.79× 7.83
Q3 over 42.5 11.7% 12.8% 12.2% 1.05× 7.83
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rice Owls to win Q4 72.0% 66.2% 52.8% 1.25× 1.51
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros to win Q4 23.3% 29.0% 41.5% 0.70× 3.45
Q4 tied 4.7% 5.2% 5.7% 0.91× 19.28
Q4 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 under 42.5 86.7% 85.6% 86.2% 0.99× 1.17
Q4 over 26.5 86.0% 85.6% 82.6% 1.04× 1.17
Q4 under 39.5 75.9% 76.9% 77.0% 1.00× 1.30
Q4 over 29.5 74.7% 71.5% 70.8% 1.01× 1.40
Q4 under 37.5 66.7% 67.4% 68.8% 0.98× 1.48
Q4 over 31.5 65.2% 67.4% 61.1% 1.10× 1.48
Q4 under 35.5 56.3% 58.4% 59.4% 0.98× 1.71
Q4 over 33.5 54.6% 52.5% 50.4% 1.04× 1.91
Q4 under 34.5 50.8% 52.5% 54.4% 0.96× 1.91
Q4 over 34.5 49.2% 47.5% 45.6% 1.04× 2.11
Q4 under 33.5 45.4% 47.5% 49.6% 0.96× 2.11
Q4 over 35.5 43.7% 41.6% 40.6% 1.03× 2.40
Q4 under 31.5 34.8% 32.6% 38.9% 0.84× 3.07
Q4 over 37.5 33.3% 32.6% 31.2% 1.04× 3.07
Q4 under 29.5 25.3% 28.5% 29.2% 0.98× 3.51
Q4 over 39.5 24.1% 23.1% 23.0% 1.00× 4.33
Q4 under 26.5 14.0% 14.4% 17.4% 0.83× 6.95
Q4 over 42.5 13.3% 14.4% 13.8% 1.04× 6.95
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros under 67.5 87.9% 83.9% 65.6% 1.28× 1.19
Rice Owls under 84.5 86.2% 83.9% 88.9% 0.94× 1.19
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros over 47.5 86.2% 83.9% 88.4% 0.95× 1.19
Rice Owls over 64.5 84.8% 80.7% 58.4% 1.38× 1.24
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros under 64.5 80.1% 80.7% 56.9% 1.42× 1.24
Rice Owls under 81.5 78.0% 75.1% 84.6% 0.89× 1.33
Rice Owls over 67.5 76.1% 75.1% 48.7% 1.54× 1.33
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros over 50.5 76.6% 75.1% 83.1% 0.90× 1.33
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros under 62.5 73.4% 70.7% 51.0% 1.39× 1.41
Rice Owls under 79.5 71.3% 70.7% 81.3% 0.87× 1.41
Rice Owls over 69.5 69.1% 66.4% 42.6% 1.56× 1.51
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros over 52.5 68.9% 66.4% 78.5% 0.85× 1.51
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros under 60.5 65.7% 66.4% 44.4% 1.50× 1.51
Rice Owls under 77.5 63.7% 61.2% 77.4% 0.79× 1.63
Rice Owls over 71.5 61.3% 61.2% 37.0% 1.65× 1.63
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros over 54.5 60.4% 61.2% 73.5% 0.83× 1.63
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros under 58.5 57.3% 57.1% 37.9% 1.51× 1.75
Rice Owls under 75.5 55.5% 57.1% 73.2% 0.78× 1.75
Rice Owls over 73.5 53.0% 52.3% 31.5% 1.66× 1.91
Rice Owls under 74.5 51.3% 52.3% 70.7% 0.74× 1.91
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros over 56.5 51.6% 52.3% 68.0% 0.77× 1.91
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros under 57.5 52.9% 52.3% 34.9% 1.50× 1.91
Rice Owls under 73.5 47.0% 47.7% 68.5% 0.70× 2.09
Rice Owls over 74.5 48.7% 47.7% 29.3% 1.63× 2.09
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros under 56.5 48.4% 47.7% 32.0% 1.49× 2.09
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros over 57.5 47.1% 47.7% 65.1% 0.73× 2.09
Rice Owls over 75.5 44.5% 42.9% 26.8% 1.60× 2.33
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros over 58.5 42.7% 42.9% 62.1% 0.69× 2.33
Rice Owls under 71.5 38.7% 38.8% 63.0% 0.62× 2.58
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros under 54.5 39.6% 38.8% 26.5% 1.47× 2.58
Rice Owls over 77.5 36.3% 38.8% 22.6% 1.72× 2.58
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros over 60.5 34.3% 33.6% 55.6% 0.60× 2.98
Rice Owls under 69.5 30.9% 33.6% 57.4% 0.59× 2.98
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros under 52.5 31.1% 33.6% 21.5% 1.56× 2.98
Rice Owls over 79.5 28.7% 29.3% 18.7% 1.57× 3.42
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros over 62.5 26.6% 29.3% 49.0% 0.60× 3.42
Rice Owls under 67.5 23.9% 24.9% 51.3% 0.48× 4.02
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros under 50.5 23.4% 24.9% 16.9% 1.48× 4.02
Rice Owls over 81.5 22.0% 24.9% 15.4% 1.61× 4.02
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros over 64.5 19.9% 19.3% 43.2% 0.45× 5.18
Rice Owls under 64.5 15.2% 19.3% 41.6% 0.46× 5.18
Rice Owls over 84.5 13.8% 16.1% 11.1% 1.45× 6.21
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros under 47.5 13.8% 16.1% 11.6% 1.39× 6.21
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros over 67.5 12.1% 16.1% 34.4% 0.47× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 111.5 points 91.9% 88.8% 85.1% 1.04× 1.13
Under 151.5 points 91.6% 88.8% 87.3% 1.02× 1.13
Under 146.5 points 85.1% 85.0% 80.9% 1.05× 1.18
Over 116.5 points 84.8% 80.6% 77.2% 1.04× 1.24
Under 141.5 points 76.0% 75.6% 73.4% 1.03× 1.32
Over 121.5 points 74.7% 70.8% 67.7% 1.05× 1.41
Under 138.5 points 69.2% 65.9% 67.9% 0.97× 1.52
Over 124.5 points 67.6% 65.9% 61.5% 1.07× 1.52
Under 136.5 points 64.3% 61.5% 64.2% 0.96× 1.63
Over 126.5 points 62.4% 61.5% 57.4% 1.07× 1.63
Under 134.5 points 59.2% 56.5% 60.2% 0.94× 1.77
Over 128.5 points 57.1% 56.5% 52.8% 1.07× 1.77
Under 132.5 points 53.8% 52.3% 56.0% 0.94× 1.91
Over 130.5 points 51.6% 52.3% 48.3% 1.08× 1.91
Under 131.5 points 51.1% 52.3% 53.9% 0.97× 1.91
Over 131.5 points 48.9% 47.7% 46.1% 1.03× 2.10
Under 130.5 points 48.4% 47.7% 51.7% 0.92× 2.10
Over 132.5 points 46.2% 47.7% 44.0% 1.08× 2.10
Under 128.5 points 42.9% 43.5% 47.2% 0.92× 2.30
Over 134.5 points 40.8% 43.5% 39.8% 1.09× 2.30
Under 126.5 points 37.6% 38.5% 42.6% 0.90× 2.60
Over 136.5 points 35.7% 38.5% 35.8% 1.08× 2.60
Under 124.5 points 32.4% 34.1% 38.5% 0.89× 2.93
Over 138.5 points 30.8% 34.1% 32.1% 1.06× 2.93
Under 121.5 points 25.3% 29.2% 32.3% 0.90× 3.43
Over 141.5 points 24.0% 24.4% 26.6% 0.92× 4.10
Under 116.5 points 15.2% 19.4% 22.8% 0.85× 5.15
Over 146.5 points 14.9% 15.0% 19.1% 0.78× 6.68
Under 111.5 points 8.1% 11.2% 14.9% 0.75× 8.96
Over 151.5 points 8.4% 11.2% 12.8% 0.88× 8.96
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rice Owls to win both halves 65.5% 66.7% 36.0% 1.85× 1.50
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros to win both halves 1.3% 3.0% 20.4% 0.15× 33.76
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Rice Owls by 26+ 21.9% 24.0% 12.6% 1.90× 4.17
Rice Owls by 16-20 18.1% 16.8% 8.0% 2.08× 5.97
Rice Owls by 11-15 17.0% 16.8% 10.8% 1.55× 5.97
Rice Owls by 21-25 15.8% 16.8% 5.4% 3.11× 5.97
Rice Owls by 6-10 13.1% 12.3% 12.9% 0.95× 8.11
Rice Owls by 1-5 8.3% 7.5% 10.2% 0.73× 13.40
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros by 1-5 3.7% 2.0% 10.2% 0.20× 49.30
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros by 6-10 1.5% 2.0% 10.3% 0.20× 49.31
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros by 11-15 0.5% 2.0% 7.6% 0.27× 49.32
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros by 16-20 0.1% 2.0% 4.8% 0.43× 49.33
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros by 21-25 0.0% 2.0% 2.7% 0.76× 49.33
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros by 26+ 0.0% 2.0% 4.6% 0.44× 49.33
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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