Saint Mary's Gaels v SMU Mustangs — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 23 November 2026 · NCAAW · 2027
NCAAW results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Saint Mary's Gaels win
76.9%
Draw
0.0%
SMU Mustangs win
23.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nba-normal | 65.20–57.04 | 65-57 0% | 51% | 0% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
Century marks 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Mary's Gaels to score 100+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 0.20× | 283.35 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels to score 110+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.64× | 283.36 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels to score 120+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 2.91× | 283.36 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels to score 130+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 7.58× | 283.36 |
| SMU Mustangs to score 100+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.71× | 283.36 |
| SMU Mustangs to score 110+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 4.74× | 283.36 |
| SMU Mustangs to score 120+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 18.95× | 283.36 |
| SMU Mustangs to score 130+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 37.89× | 283.36 |
| Both sides to score 100+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 6.32× | 283.36 |
H1 result 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Mary's Gaels to win H1 | 64.9% | 62.3% | 56.4% | 1.10× | 1.61 |
| SMU Mustangs to win H1 | 31.0% | 33.1% | 39.9% | 0.83× | 3.02 |
| H1 tied | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 1.05× | 25.86 |
H1 total 22
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 under 71.5 | 89.8% | 87.7% | 81.4% | 1.08× | 1.14 |
| H1 over 47.5 | 87.2% | 87.7% | 90.6% | 0.97× | 1.14 |
| H1 under 67.5 | 80.9% | 82.5% | 70.4% | 1.17× | 1.21 |
| H1 over 51.5 | 76.7% | 77.4% | 82.0% | 0.94× | 1.29 |
| H1 under 64.5 | 71.8% | 73.5% | 60.7% | 1.21× | 1.36 |
| H1 over 54.5 | 66.5% | 67.4% | 74.0% | 0.91× | 1.48 |
| H1 under 62.5 | 64.7% | 62.7% | 53.7% | 1.17× | 1.59 |
| H1 over 56.5 | 58.9% | 58.2% | 68.2% | 0.85× | 1.72 |
| H1 under 60.5 | 57.0% | 58.2% | 46.1% | 1.26× | 1.72 |
| H1 under 59.5 | 53.1% | 52.6% | 42.2% | 1.25× | 1.90 |
| H1 over 58.5 | 50.9% | 52.6% | 61.4% | 0.86× | 1.90 |
| H1 under 58.5 | 49.1% | 47.4% | 38.6% | 1.23× | 2.11 |
| H1 over 59.5 | 46.9% | 47.4% | 57.8% | 0.82× | 2.11 |
| H1 over 60.5 | 43.0% | 41.8% | 53.9% | 0.78× | 2.39 |
| H1 under 56.5 | 41.2% | 41.8% | 31.8% | 1.31× | 2.39 |
| H1 over 62.5 | 35.3% | 37.3% | 46.3% | 0.80× | 2.68 |
| H1 under 54.5 | 33.5% | 32.6% | 26.0% | 1.25× | 3.07 |
| H1 over 64.5 | 28.2% | 26.5% | 39.3% | 0.68× | 3.77 |
| H1 under 51.5 | 23.3% | 22.6% | 18.0% | 1.25× | 4.43 |
| H1 over 67.5 | 19.1% | 17.5% | 29.6% | 0.59× | 5.72 |
| H1 under 47.5 | 12.8% | 12.3% | 9.4% | 1.30× | 8.14 |
| H1 over 71.5 | 10.2% | 12.3% | 18.6% | 0.66× | 8.14 |
H2 result 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Mary's Gaels to win H2 | 65.9% | 62.7% | 56.0% | 1.12× | 1.59 |
| SMU Mustangs to win H2 | 30.1% | 36.3% | 40.6% | 0.89× | 2.76 |
| H2 tied | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.16× | 25.36 |
H2 total 22
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H2 over 52.5 | 87.4% | 85.2% | 91.3% | 0.93× | 1.17 |
| H2 under 76.5 | 87.6% | 85.2% | 75.6% | 1.13× | 1.17 |
| H2 under 72.5 | 78.2% | 75.8% | 64.1% | 1.18× | 1.32 |
| H2 over 56.5 | 77.4% | 75.8% | 84.1% | 0.90× | 1.32 |
| H2 under 69.5 | 69.0% | 66.4% | 54.8% | 1.21× | 1.51 |
| H2 over 59.5 | 67.8% | 66.4% | 77.0% | 0.86× | 1.51 |
| H2 under 67.5 | 62.0% | 61.6% | 47.9% | 1.29× | 1.62 |
| H2 over 61.5 | 60.6% | 61.6% | 71.3% | 0.86× | 1.62 |
| H2 under 65.5 | 54.5% | 52.4% | 41.2% | 1.27× | 1.91 |
| H2 over 63.5 | 53.1% | 52.4% | 65.3% | 0.80× | 1.91 |
| H2 under 64.5 | 50.7% | 52.4% | 37.9% | 1.38× | 1.91 |
| H2 over 64.5 | 49.3% | 47.6% | 62.1% | 0.77× | 2.10 |
| H2 under 63.5 | 46.9% | 47.6% | 34.7% | 1.37× | 2.10 |
| H2 over 65.5 | 45.5% | 47.6% | 58.8% | 0.81× | 2.10 |
| H2 under 61.5 | 39.4% | 38.4% | 28.7% | 1.34× | 2.61 |
| H2 over 67.5 | 38.0% | 38.4% | 52.1% | 0.74× | 2.61 |
| H2 under 59.5 | 32.2% | 33.6% | 23.0% | 1.46× | 2.97 |
| H2 over 69.5 | 31.0% | 33.6% | 45.2% | 0.74× | 2.97 |
| H2 under 56.5 | 22.6% | 24.2% | 15.9% | 1.53× | 4.13 |
| H2 over 72.5 | 21.8% | 24.2% | 36.0% | 0.67× | 4.13 |
| H2 under 52.5 | 12.6% | 14.8% | 8.7% | 1.70× | 6.76 |
| H2 over 76.5 | 12.4% | 14.8% | 24.4% | 0.61× | 6.76 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Mary's Gaels leading at half time | 64.9% | 62.5% | 56.4% | 1.11× | 1.60 |
| SMU Mustangs leading at half time | 31.0% | 32.7% | 39.9% | 0.82× | 3.06 |
| Level at half time | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 1.03× | 26.40 |
Handicap 60
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Mary's Gaels +20.5 | 99.5% | 97.4% | 92.7% | 1.05× | 1.03 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels +12.5 | 96.7% | 97.4% | 83.8% | 1.16× | 1.03 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels +14.5 | 97.8% | 97.4% | 86.7% | 1.12× | 1.03 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels +16.5 | 98.6% | 97.4% | 89.1% | 1.09× | 1.03 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels +18.5 | 99.1% | 97.4% | 91.1% | 1.07× | 1.03 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels +10.5 | 95.1% | 97.4% | 80.4% | 1.21× | 1.03 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels +8.5 | 92.9% | 91.1% | 76.5% | 1.19× | 1.10 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels +9.5 | 94.0% | 91.1% | 78.7% | 1.16× | 1.10 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels +7.5 | 91.5% | 91.1% | 74.5% | 1.22× | 1.10 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels +6.5 | 90.0% | 91.1% | 72.3% | 1.26× | 1.10 |
| SMU Mustangs +20.5 | 87.4% | 85.9% | 82.0% | 1.05× | 1.16 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels +5.5 | 88.3% | 85.9% | 70.1% | 1.23× | 1.16 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels +4.5 | 86.5% | 85.9% | 67.8% | 1.27× | 1.16 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels +3.5 | 84.4% | 81.1% | 65.7% | 1.23× | 1.23 |
| SMU Mustangs +18.5 | 83.1% | 81.1% | 79.3% | 1.02× | 1.23 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels +2.5 | 82.1% | 81.1% | 63.3% | 1.28× | 1.23 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels +1.5 | 79.6% | 76.5% | 61.2% | 1.25× | 1.31 |
| SMU Mustangs +16.5 | 78.0% | 76.5% | 75.7% | 1.01× | 1.31 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels −1.5 | 73.8% | 71.6% | 58.7% | 1.22× | 1.40 |
| SMU Mustangs +14.5 | 72.1% | 71.6% | 72.1% | 0.99× | 1.40 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels −2.5 | 70.6% | 71.6% | 56.7% | 1.26× | 1.40 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels −3.5 | 67.2% | 66.7% | 54.2% | 1.23× | 1.50 |
| SMU Mustangs +12.5 | 65.5% | 66.7% | 67.9% | 0.98× | 1.50 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels −4.5 | 63.7% | 61.9% | 52.2% | 1.19× | 1.62 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels −5.5 | 60.1% | 61.9% | 49.7% | 1.25× | 1.62 |
| SMU Mustangs +10.5 | 58.4% | 57.1% | 63.2% | 0.90× | 1.75 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels −6.5 | 56.4% | 57.1% | 47.6% | 1.20× | 1.75 |
| SMU Mustangs +9.5 | 54.8% | 52.4% | 60.7% | 0.86× | 1.91 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels −7.5 | 52.7% | 52.4% | 44.8% | 1.17× | 1.91 |
| SMU Mustangs +8.5 | 51.1% | 52.4% | 58.0% | 0.90× | 1.91 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels −8.5 | 48.9% | 47.6% | 42.0% | 1.13× | 2.10 |
| SMU Mustangs +7.5 | 47.3% | 47.6% | 55.2% | 0.86× | 2.10 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels −9.5 | 45.2% | 47.6% | 39.3% | 1.21× | 2.10 |
| SMU Mustangs +6.5 | 43.6% | 42.9% | 52.4% | 0.82× | 2.33 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels −10.5 | 41.6% | 42.9% | 36.8% | 1.17× | 2.33 |
| SMU Mustangs +5.5 | 39.9% | 38.1% | 50.3% | 0.76× | 2.63 |
| SMU Mustangs +4.5 | 36.3% | 38.1% | 47.8% | 0.80× | 2.63 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels −12.5 | 34.5% | 33.3% | 32.1% | 1.04× | 3.01 |
| SMU Mustangs +3.5 | 32.8% | 33.3% | 45.8% | 0.73× | 3.01 |
| SMU Mustangs +2.5 | 29.4% | 28.4% | 43.3% | 0.66× | 3.53 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels −14.5 | 27.9% | 28.4% | 27.9% | 1.02× | 3.53 |
| SMU Mustangs +1.5 | 26.2% | 28.4% | 41.3% | 0.69× | 3.53 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels −16.5 | 22.0% | 23.5% | 24.3% | 0.97× | 4.25 |
| SMU Mustangs −1.5 | 20.4% | 23.5% | 38.8% | 0.61× | 4.25 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels −18.5 | 16.9% | 18.9% | 20.7% | 0.91× | 5.29 |
| SMU Mustangs −2.5 | 17.9% | 18.9% | 36.7% | 0.52× | 5.29 |
| SMU Mustangs −3.5 | 15.6% | 18.9% | 34.3% | 0.55× | 5.30 |
| SMU Mustangs −4.5 | 13.5% | 14.1% | 32.2% | 0.44× | 7.09 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels −20.5 | 12.6% | 14.1% | 18.0% | 0.78× | 7.09 |
| SMU Mustangs −5.5 | 11.7% | 14.1% | 29.9% | 0.47× | 7.09 |
| SMU Mustangs −6.5 | 10.0% | 8.9% | 27.7% | 0.32× | 11.25 |
| SMU Mustangs −7.5 | 8.5% | 8.9% | 25.5% | 0.35× | 11.25 |
| SMU Mustangs −8.5 | 7.1% | 8.9% | 23.5% | 0.38× | 11.25 |
| SMU Mustangs −9.5 | 6.0% | 8.9% | 21.3% | 0.42× | 11.25 |
| SMU Mustangs −10.5 | 5.0% | 2.6% | 19.6% | 0.13× | 38.72 |
| SMU Mustangs −12.5 | 3.3% | 2.6% | 16.2% | 0.16× | 38.73 |
| SMU Mustangs −14.5 | 2.2% | 2.6% | 13.3% | 0.19× | 38.73 |
| SMU Mustangs −16.5 | 1.4% | 2.6% | 10.9% | 0.24× | 38.73 |
| SMU Mustangs −18.5 | 0.9% | 2.6% | 8.9% | 0.29× | 38.74 |
| SMU Mustangs −20.5 | 0.5% | 2.6% | 7.3% | 0.35× | 38.74 |
Highest scoring half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 70.9% | 67.1% | 66.7% | 1.01× | 1.49 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 29.1% | 32.9% | 33.3% | 0.99× | 3.04 |
Highest scoring quarter 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 highest scoring | 34.0% | 31.9% | 31.2% | 1.02× | 3.14 |
| Q3 highest scoring | 32.2% | 31.9% | 31.3% | 1.02× | 3.14 |
| Q1 highest scoring | 17.7% | 18.3% | 19.6% | 0.94× | 5.46 |
| Q2 highest scoring | 16.2% | 18.3% | 17.9% | 1.02× | 5.46 |
HT/FT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Mary's Gaels at HT / Saint Mary's Gaels at FT | 57.8% | 56.8% | 48.3% | 1.18× | 1.76 |
| SMU Mustangs at HT / Saint Mary's Gaels at FT | 16.1% | 15.5% | 9.8% | 1.58× | 6.47 |
| SMU Mustangs at HT / SMU Mustangs at FT | 14.9% | 12.2% | 30.1% | 0.41× | 8.17 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels at HT / SMU Mustangs at FT | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 1.01× | 12.09 |
| Level at HT / Saint Mary's Gaels at FT | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.09× | 47.74 |
| Level at HT / SMU Mustangs at FT | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.20× | 47.77 |
Moneyline 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Mary's Gaels to win | 76.9% | 75.1% | 59.9% | 1.25× | 1.33 |
| SMU Mustangs to win | 23.1% | 24.9% | 40.1% | 0.62× | 4.01 |
Odd/Even 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total points odd | 51.4% | 50.5% | 51.5% | 0.98× | 1.98 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels even | 50.0% | 50.5% | 49.4% | 1.02× | 1.98 |
| SMU Mustangs even | 50.2% | 50.5% | 50.1% | 1.01× | 1.98 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels odd | 50.0% | 49.5% | 50.6% | 0.98× | 2.02 |
| SMU Mustangs odd | 49.8% | 49.5% | 49.9% | 0.99× | 2.02 |
| Total points even | 48.6% | 49.5% | 48.5% | 1.02× | 2.02 |
Overtime 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No overtime | 94.8% | 94.0% | 95.6% | 0.98× | 1.06 |
| Match to go to overtime | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 1.35× | 16.66 |
Q1 result 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Mary's Gaels to win Q1 | 58.7% | 57.3% | 54.7% | 1.05× | 1.75 |
| SMU Mustangs to win Q1 | 35.4% | 38.2% | 40.4% | 0.95× | 2.62 |
| Q1 tied | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 1.11× | 18.32 |
Q1 total 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 over 21.5 | 88.6% | 87.4% | 91.5% | 0.96× | 1.14 |
| Q1 under 37.5 | 88.2% | 87.4% | 81.6% | 1.07× | 1.14 |
| Q1 over 24.5 | 77.4% | 76.9% | 81.8% | 0.94× | 1.30 |
| Q1 under 34.5 | 77.0% | 76.9% | 68.5% | 1.12× | 1.30 |
| Q1 over 26.5 | 67.5% | 67.6% | 72.9% | 0.93× | 1.48 |
| Q1 under 32.5 | 67.1% | 67.6% | 59.1% | 1.14× | 1.48 |
| Q1 over 28.5 | 56.1% | 58.6% | 62.7% | 0.94× | 1.71 |
| Q1 under 30.5 | 55.7% | 58.6% | 48.8% | 1.20× | 1.71 |
| Q1 over 29.5 | 50.2% | 52.7% | 56.9% | 0.93× | 1.90 |
| Q1 under 29.5 | 49.8% | 47.3% | 43.1% | 1.10× | 2.11 |
| Q1 over 30.5 | 44.3% | 41.4% | 51.2% | 0.81× | 2.42 |
| Q1 under 28.5 | 43.9% | 41.4% | 37.3% | 1.11× | 2.42 |
| Q1 over 32.5 | 32.9% | 32.4% | 40.9% | 0.79× | 3.08 |
| Q1 under 26.5 | 32.5% | 32.4% | 27.1% | 1.20× | 3.08 |
| Q1 over 34.5 | 23.0% | 23.1% | 31.5% | 0.73× | 4.33 |
| Q1 under 24.5 | 22.6% | 23.1% | 18.2% | 1.27× | 4.33 |
| Q1 over 37.5 | 11.8% | 12.6% | 18.4% | 0.68× | 7.95 |
| Q1 under 21.5 | 11.4% | 12.6% | 8.5% | 1.49× | 7.95 |
Q2 result 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Mary's Gaels to win Q2 | 58.4% | 59.4% | 52.9% | 1.12× | 1.68 |
| SMU Mustangs to win Q2 | 35.8% | 35.7% | 41.5% | 0.86× | 2.80 |
| Q2 tied | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 1.07× | 16.50 |
Q2 total 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 under 37.5 | 89.0% | 87.3% | 82.3% | 1.06× | 1.15 |
| Q2 over 21.5 | 87.6% | 87.3% | 90.2% | 0.97× | 1.15 |
| Q2 under 34.5 | 78.3% | 76.8% | 70.1% | 1.10× | 1.30 |
| Q2 over 24.5 | 76.0% | 76.8% | 80.7% | 0.95× | 1.30 |
| Q2 under 32.5 | 68.7% | 67.4% | 60.8% | 1.11× | 1.49 |
| Q2 over 26.5 | 65.8% | 67.4% | 71.6% | 0.94× | 1.49 |
| Q2 under 30.5 | 57.5% | 58.2% | 50.1% | 1.16× | 1.72 |
| Q2 over 28.5 | 54.3% | 52.7% | 61.2% | 0.86× | 1.90 |
| Q2 under 29.5 | 51.6% | 52.7% | 44.2% | 1.19× | 1.90 |
| Q2 over 29.5 | 48.4% | 47.3% | 55.8% | 0.85× | 2.11 |
| Q2 under 28.5 | 45.7% | 47.3% | 38.8% | 1.22× | 2.11 |
| Q2 over 30.5 | 42.5% | 41.8% | 49.9% | 0.84× | 2.39 |
| Q2 under 26.5 | 34.2% | 32.6% | 28.4% | 1.15× | 3.06 |
| Q2 over 32.5 | 31.3% | 32.6% | 39.2% | 0.83× | 3.06 |
| Q2 under 24.5 | 24.0% | 23.2% | 19.3% | 1.21× | 4.31 |
| Q2 over 34.5 | 21.7% | 23.2% | 29.9% | 0.78× | 4.31 |
| Q2 under 21.5 | 12.4% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 1.30× | 7.89 |
| Q2 over 37.5 | 11.0% | 12.7% | 17.7% | 0.72× | 7.90 |
Q3 result 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Mary's Gaels to win Q3 | 59.5% | 56.8% | 53.3% | 1.07× | 1.76 |
| SMU Mustangs to win Q3 | 34.8% | 33.8% | 41.8% | 0.81× | 2.96 |
| Q3 tied | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 1.07× | 18.97 |
Q3 total 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 under 40.5 | 88.7% | 87.2% | 81.9% | 1.07× | 1.15 |
| Q3 over 24.5 | 86.8% | 87.2% | 89.9% | 0.97× | 1.15 |
| Q3 under 37.5 | 78.1% | 77.3% | 69.7% | 1.11× | 1.29 |
| Q3 over 27.5 | 75.1% | 77.3% | 80.0% | 0.97× | 1.29 |
| Q3 under 35.5 | 68.7% | 67.8% | 59.7% | 1.14× | 1.48 |
| Q3 over 29.5 | 65.0% | 62.0% | 71.8% | 0.86× | 1.61 |
| Q3 under 33.5 | 57.8% | 58.4% | 49.1% | 1.19× | 1.71 |
| Q3 over 31.5 | 53.7% | 52.3% | 61.6% | 0.85× | 1.91 |
| Q3 under 32.5 | 52.1% | 52.3% | 43.9% | 1.19× | 1.91 |
| Q3 over 32.5 | 47.9% | 47.7% | 56.1% | 0.85× | 2.10 |
| Q3 under 31.5 | 46.3% | 47.7% | 38.4% | 1.24× | 2.10 |
| Q3 over 33.5 | 42.2% | 41.6% | 50.9% | 0.82× | 2.40 |
| Q3 under 29.5 | 35.0% | 38.0% | 28.2% | 1.35× | 2.63 |
| Q3 over 35.5 | 31.3% | 32.2% | 40.3% | 0.80× | 3.11 |
| Q3 under 27.5 | 24.9% | 22.7% | 20.0% | 1.14× | 4.40 |
| Q3 over 37.5 | 21.9% | 22.7% | 30.3% | 0.75× | 4.40 |
| Q3 under 24.5 | 13.2% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 1.27× | 7.83 |
| Q3 over 40.5 | 11.3% | 12.8% | 18.1% | 0.70× | 7.83 |
Q4 result 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Mary's Gaels to win Q4 | 59.3% | 52.1% | 52.8% | 0.99× | 1.92 |
| SMU Mustangs to win Q4 | 35.1% | 42.3% | 41.5% | 1.02× | 2.36 |
| Q4 tied | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 1.02× | 17.25 |
Q4 total 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 under 40.5 | 87.1% | 85.6% | 80.6% | 1.06× | 1.17 |
| Q4 over 24.5 | 85.6% | 85.6% | 89.0% | 0.96× | 1.17 |
| Q4 under 37.5 | 76.5% | 76.9% | 68.8% | 1.12× | 1.30 |
| Q4 over 27.5 | 74.1% | 71.5% | 78.9% | 0.91× | 1.40 |
| Q4 under 35.5 | 67.4% | 67.4% | 59.4% | 1.14× | 1.48 |
| Q4 over 29.5 | 64.5% | 61.4% | 70.8% | 0.87× | 1.63 |
| Q4 under 33.5 | 57.0% | 58.4% | 49.6% | 1.18× | 1.71 |
| Q4 over 31.5 | 53.9% | 52.5% | 61.1% | 0.86× | 1.91 |
| Q4 under 32.5 | 51.6% | 52.5% | 44.6% | 1.18× | 1.91 |
| Q4 over 32.5 | 48.4% | 47.5% | 55.4% | 0.86× | 2.11 |
| Q4 under 31.5 | 46.1% | 47.5% | 38.9% | 1.22× | 2.11 |
| Q4 over 33.5 | 43.0% | 41.6% | 50.4% | 0.83× | 2.40 |
| Q4 under 29.5 | 35.5% | 38.6% | 29.2% | 1.32× | 2.59 |
| Q4 over 35.5 | 32.6% | 32.6% | 40.6% | 0.80× | 3.07 |
| Q4 under 27.5 | 25.9% | 28.5% | 21.1% | 1.35× | 3.51 |
| Q4 over 37.5 | 23.5% | 23.1% | 31.2% | 0.74× | 4.33 |
| Q4 under 24.5 | 14.4% | 14.4% | 11.0% | 1.31× | 6.95 |
| Q4 over 40.5 | 12.9% | 14.4% | 19.4% | 0.74× | 6.95 |
Team total 44
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMU Mustangs over 47.5 | 87.2% | 83.9% | 88.4% | 0.95× | 1.19 |
| SMU Mustangs under 67.5 | 86.7% | 83.9% | 65.6% | 1.28× | 1.19 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels over 55.5 | 85.7% | 83.9% | 81.6% | 1.03× | 1.19 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels under 75.5 | 85.3% | 83.9% | 73.2% | 1.15× | 1.19 |
| SMU Mustangs over 50.5 | 77.9% | 75.1% | 83.1% | 0.90× | 1.33 |
| SMU Mustangs under 64.5 | 78.5% | 75.1% | 56.9% | 1.32× | 1.33 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels over 58.5 | 77.2% | 75.1% | 74.7% | 1.01× | 1.33 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels under 72.5 | 76.8% | 75.1% | 65.7% | 1.14× | 1.33 |
| SMU Mustangs under 62.5 | 71.6% | 70.7% | 51.0% | 1.39× | 1.41 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels over 60.5 | 70.4% | 70.7% | 69.5% | 1.02× | 1.41 |
| SMU Mustangs over 52.5 | 70.5% | 70.7% | 78.5% | 0.90× | 1.41 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels under 70.5 | 69.9% | 66.4% | 60.3% | 1.10× | 1.51 |
| SMU Mustangs under 60.5 | 63.8% | 61.2% | 44.4% | 1.38× | 1.63 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels over 62.5 | 62.7% | 61.2% | 64.3% | 0.95× | 1.63 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels under 68.5 | 62.1% | 61.2% | 54.4% | 1.12× | 1.63 |
| SMU Mustangs over 54.5 | 62.2% | 61.2% | 73.5% | 0.83× | 1.63 |
| SMU Mustangs under 58.5 | 55.3% | 57.1% | 37.9% | 1.51× | 1.75 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels over 64.5 | 54.5% | 52.3% | 58.4% | 0.89× | 1.91 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels under 66.5 | 53.9% | 52.3% | 48.2% | 1.09× | 1.91 |
| SMU Mustangs over 56.5 | 53.5% | 52.3% | 68.0% | 0.77× | 1.91 |
| SMU Mustangs under 57.5 | 50.9% | 52.3% | 34.9% | 1.50× | 1.91 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels over 65.5 | 50.3% | 52.3% | 55.3% | 0.95× | 1.91 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels under 65.5 | 49.7% | 47.7% | 44.7% | 1.07× | 2.09 |
| SMU Mustangs under 56.5 | 46.5% | 47.7% | 32.0% | 1.49× | 2.09 |
| SMU Mustangs over 57.5 | 49.1% | 47.7% | 65.1% | 0.73× | 2.09 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels under 64.5 | 45.5% | 47.7% | 41.6% | 1.15× | 2.09 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels over 66.5 | 46.1% | 47.7% | 51.8% | 0.92× | 2.09 |
| SMU Mustangs over 58.5 | 44.7% | 42.9% | 62.1% | 0.69× | 2.33 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels under 62.5 | 37.3% | 38.8% | 35.7% | 1.09× | 2.58 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels over 68.5 | 37.9% | 38.8% | 45.6% | 0.85× | 2.58 |
| SMU Mustangs under 54.5 | 37.8% | 38.8% | 26.5% | 1.47× | 2.58 |
| SMU Mustangs over 60.5 | 36.2% | 38.8% | 55.6% | 0.70× | 2.58 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels over 70.5 | 30.1% | 33.6% | 39.7% | 0.85× | 2.98 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels under 60.5 | 29.6% | 29.3% | 30.5% | 0.96× | 3.42 |
| SMU Mustangs under 52.5 | 29.5% | 29.3% | 21.5% | 1.36× | 3.42 |
| SMU Mustangs over 62.5 | 28.4% | 29.3% | 49.0% | 0.60× | 3.42 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels under 58.5 | 22.8% | 24.9% | 25.3% | 0.98× | 4.02 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels over 72.5 | 23.2% | 24.9% | 34.3% | 0.72× | 4.02 |
| SMU Mustangs under 50.5 | 22.1% | 24.9% | 16.9% | 1.48× | 4.02 |
| SMU Mustangs over 64.5 | 21.5% | 24.9% | 43.2% | 0.58× | 4.02 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels under 55.5 | 14.3% | 16.1% | 18.5% | 0.87× | 6.21 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels over 75.5 | 14.7% | 16.1% | 26.8% | 0.60× | 6.21 |
| SMU Mustangs under 47.5 | 12.8% | 16.1% | 11.6% | 1.39× | 6.21 |
| SMU Mustangs over 67.5 | 13.3% | 16.1% | 34.4% | 0.47× | 6.21 |
Total points 30
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 103.5 points | 91.7% | 88.8% | 93.6% | 0.95× | 1.13 |
| Under 143.5 points | 91.8% | 88.8% | 76.7% | 1.16× | 1.13 |
| Under 138.5 points | 85.4% | 85.0% | 67.9% | 1.25× | 1.18 |
| Over 108.5 points | 84.5% | 80.6% | 88.9% | 0.91× | 1.24 |
| Under 133.5 points | 76.4% | 75.6% | 58.0% | 1.30× | 1.32 |
| Over 113.5 points | 74.2% | 70.8% | 81.9% | 0.87× | 1.41 |
| Under 130.5 points | 69.7% | 65.9% | 51.7% | 1.28× | 1.52 |
| Over 116.5 points | 67.1% | 65.9% | 77.2% | 0.85× | 1.52 |
| Under 128.5 points | 64.8% | 61.5% | 47.2% | 1.30× | 1.63 |
| Over 118.5 points | 61.9% | 61.5% | 73.6% | 0.84× | 1.63 |
| Under 126.5 points | 59.7% | 56.5% | 42.6% | 1.33× | 1.77 |
| Over 120.5 points | 56.5% | 56.5% | 69.8% | 0.81× | 1.77 |
| Under 124.5 points | 54.4% | 52.3% | 38.5% | 1.36× | 1.91 |
| Under 123.5 points | 51.7% | 52.3% | 36.7% | 1.43× | 1.91 |
| Over 122.5 points | 51.1% | 52.3% | 65.6% | 0.80× | 1.91 |
| Under 122.5 points | 48.9% | 47.7% | 34.4% | 1.39× | 2.10 |
| Over 123.5 points | 48.3% | 47.7% | 63.3% | 0.75× | 2.10 |
| Over 124.5 points | 45.6% | 47.7% | 61.5% | 0.78× | 2.10 |
| Under 120.5 points | 43.5% | 43.5% | 30.2% | 1.44× | 2.30 |
| Over 126.5 points | 40.3% | 43.5% | 57.4% | 0.76× | 2.30 |
| Under 118.5 points | 38.1% | 38.5% | 26.4% | 1.46× | 2.60 |
| Over 128.5 points | 35.2% | 38.5% | 52.8% | 0.73× | 2.60 |
| Under 116.5 points | 32.9% | 34.1% | 22.8% | 1.50× | 2.93 |
| Over 130.5 points | 30.3% | 34.1% | 48.3% | 0.71× | 2.93 |
| Under 113.5 points | 25.8% | 29.2% | 18.1% | 1.61× | 3.43 |
| Over 133.5 points | 23.6% | 24.4% | 42.0% | 0.58× | 4.10 |
| Under 108.5 points | 15.5% | 19.4% | 11.1% | 1.75× | 5.15 |
| Over 138.5 points | 14.6% | 15.0% | 32.1% | 0.47× | 6.68 |
| Under 103.5 points | 8.3% | 11.2% | 6.4% | 1.74× | 8.96 |
| Over 143.5 points | 8.2% | 11.2% | 23.3% | 0.48× | 8.96 |
Win both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Mary's Gaels to win both halves | 40.0% | 40.6% | 36.0% | 1.13× | 2.46 |
| SMU Mustangs to win both halves | 7.0% | 8.8% | 20.4% | 0.43× | 11.32 |
Winning margin 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Mary's Gaels by 6-10 | 18.5% | 16.8% | 12.9% | 1.30× | 5.97 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels by 1-5 | 16.8% | 16.8% | 10.2% | 1.64× | 5.97 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels by 11-15 | 16.7% | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.55× | 5.97 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels by 16-20 | 12.3% | 12.3% | 8.0% | 1.53× | 8.11 |
| SMU Mustangs by 1-5 | 11.5% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 1.21× | 8.11 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels by 21-25 | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 1.39× | 13.40 |
| SMU Mustangs by 6-10 | 6.7% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 0.72× | 13.40 |
| Saint Mary's Gaels by 26+ | 5.3% | 7.5% | 12.6% | 0.59× | 13.40 |
| SMU Mustangs by 11-15 | 3.2% | 2.0% | 7.6% | 0.27× | 49.30 |
| SMU Mustangs by 16-20 | 1.2% | 2.0% | 4.8% | 0.43× | 49.32 |
| SMU Mustangs by 21-25 | 0.4% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 0.76× | 49.32 |
| SMU Mustangs by 26+ | 0.1% | 2.0% | 4.6% | 0.44× | 49.33 |