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San Antonio Spurs v Houston Rockets — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 24 October 2026 · NBA · 2027

NBA results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
San Antonio Spurs win
72.2%
Draw
0.0%
Houston Rockets win
27.8%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 113.82–105.49 114-106 0% 50% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Antonio Spurs to score 100+ 88.9% 85.0% 89.3% 0.95× 1.18
Houston Rockets to score 100+ 69.2% 63.9% 85.9% 0.74× 1.57
San Antonio Spurs to score 110+ 64.7% 61.9% 67.0% 0.92× 1.62
Both sides to score 100+ 63.0% 61.9% 77.5% 0.80× 1.62
Houston Rockets to score 110+ 36.2% 35.9% 60.9% 0.59× 2.78
San Antonio Spurs to score 120+ 31.9% 31.3% 36.5% 0.86× 3.19
Houston Rockets to score 120+ 11.4% 13.8% 29.7% 0.47× 7.24
San Antonio Spurs to score 130+ 9.3% 8.8% 12.8% 0.69× 11.35
Houston Rockets to score 130+ 2.0% 0.4% 10.0% 0.04× 282.97
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Antonio Spurs to win H1 63.2% 62.2% 52.8% 1.18× 1.61
Houston Rockets to win H1 33.5% 33.1% 44.1% 0.75× 3.02
H1 tied 3.3% 3.9% 3.1% 1.25× 25.87
H1 total 34
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 over 100.5 82.3% 83.2% 86.8% 0.96× 1.20
H1 under 124.5 81.6% 83.2% 78.4% 1.06× 1.20
H1 over 98.5 82.6% 82.5% 90.0% 0.92× 1.21
H1 under 122.5 81.8% 82.5% 74.0% 1.12× 1.21
H1 over 104.5 73.3% 74.0% 78.3% 0.95× 1.35
H1 under 120.5 72.5% 74.0% 68.4% 1.08× 1.35
H1 over 102.5 73.6% 73.5% 83.0% 0.89× 1.36
H1 under 118.5 72.6% 73.5% 62.9% 1.17× 1.36
H1 over 105.5 65.5% 67.4% 75.8% 0.89× 1.48
H1 under 117.5 64.4% 63.3% 59.6% 1.06× 1.58
H1 under 115.5 64.4% 62.7% 53.6% 1.17× 1.59
H1 over 107.5 59.7% 58.2% 70.4% 0.83× 1.72
H1 under 113.5 58.6% 58.2% 47.6% 1.22× 1.72
H1 over 109.5 53.6% 52.6% 65.0% 0.81× 1.90
H1 under 111.5 52.5% 52.6% 41.0% 1.28× 1.90
H1 over 110.5 50.6% 52.6% 61.9% 0.85× 1.90
H1 over 112.5 50.5% 52.5% 55.8% 0.94× 1.90
H1 under 112.5 49.5% 47.5% 44.2% 1.07× 2.11
H1 under 110.5 49.4% 47.4% 38.1% 1.24× 2.11
H1 over 111.5 47.5% 47.4% 59.0% 0.80× 2.11
H1 under 109.5 46.4% 47.4% 35.0% 1.35× 2.11
H1 over 113.5 41.4% 41.8% 52.4% 0.80× 2.39
H1 under 107.5 40.3% 41.8% 29.6% 1.41× 2.39
H1 over 115.5 35.6% 37.3% 46.4% 0.80× 2.68
H1 over 117.5 35.6% 36.7% 40.4% 0.91× 2.72
H1 under 105.5 34.5% 32.6% 24.2% 1.34× 3.07
H1 over 118.5 27.4% 26.5% 37.1% 0.71× 3.77
H1 under 102.5 26.4% 26.5% 17.0% 1.56× 3.77
H1 over 120.5 27.5% 26.0% 31.6% 0.83× 3.84
H1 under 104.5 26.7% 26.0% 21.7% 1.20× 3.84
H1 over 122.5 18.2% 17.5% 26.0% 0.67× 5.73
H1 under 98.5 17.4% 17.5% 10.0% 1.74× 5.73
H1 over 124.5 18.4% 16.8% 21.7% 0.77× 5.96
H1 under 100.5 17.7% 16.8% 13.2% 1.28× 5.96
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Antonio Spurs to win H2 63.0% 58.8% 51.6% 1.14× 1.70
Houston Rockets to win H2 33.7% 36.3% 44.7% 0.81× 2.75
H2 tied 3.3% 3.9% 3.7% 1.06× 25.36
H2 total 34
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 over 96.5 82.7% 81.8% 89.3% 0.92× 1.22
H2 under 120.5 82.2% 81.8% 69.3% 1.18× 1.22
H2 over 98.5 82.3% 81.5% 86.2% 0.95× 1.23
H2 under 122.5 82.1% 81.5% 74.4% 1.10× 1.23
H2 over 102.5 73.2% 72.5% 78.5% 0.92× 1.38
H2 under 118.5 72.9% 72.5% 63.6% 1.14× 1.38
H2 over 100.5 73.6% 72.2% 82.4% 0.88× 1.39
H2 under 116.5 72.9% 72.2% 58.1% 1.24× 1.39
H2 over 103.5 65.5% 66.4% 76.2% 0.87× 1.51
H2 under 115.5 64.8% 62.6% 55.4% 1.13× 1.60
H2 under 113.5 64.7% 61.6% 50.1% 1.23× 1.62
H2 over 105.5 59.6% 57.3% 71.3% 0.80× 1.74
H2 under 111.5 58.8% 57.3% 44.7% 1.28× 1.74
H2 over 107.5 53.5% 52.4% 66.2% 0.79× 1.91
H2 under 109.5 52.7% 52.4% 39.1% 1.34× 1.91
H2 over 108.5 50.4% 52.4% 63.8% 0.82× 1.91
H2 over 110.5 50.2% 52.0% 58.1% 0.90× 1.92
H2 under 110.5 49.8% 48.0% 41.9% 1.15× 2.09
H2 under 108.5 49.6% 47.6% 36.2% 1.32× 2.10
H2 over 109.5 47.3% 47.6% 60.9% 0.78× 2.10
H2 under 107.5 46.5% 47.6% 33.8% 1.41× 2.10
H2 over 111.5 41.2% 42.7% 55.3% 0.77× 2.34
H2 under 105.5 40.4% 42.7% 28.7% 1.49× 2.35
H2 over 113.5 35.3% 38.4% 49.9% 0.77× 2.61
H2 over 115.5 35.2% 37.4% 44.6% 0.84× 2.67
H2 under 103.5 34.5% 33.6% 23.8% 1.41× 2.97
H2 over 116.5 27.1% 27.8% 41.9% 0.66× 3.59
H2 under 100.5 26.4% 27.8% 17.6% 1.58× 3.59
H2 over 118.5 27.1% 27.5% 36.4% 0.76× 3.63
H2 under 102.5 26.8% 27.5% 21.5% 1.28× 3.63
H2 over 122.5 17.9% 18.5% 25.6% 0.72× 5.41
H2 under 98.5 17.7% 18.5% 13.8% 1.34× 5.41
H2 over 120.5 17.8% 18.2% 30.7% 0.59× 5.50
H2 under 96.5 17.3% 18.2% 10.7% 1.69× 5.50
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Antonio Spurs leading at half time 63.2% 62.5% 52.8% 1.18× 1.60
Houston Rockets leading at half time 33.5% 32.8% 44.1% 0.74× 3.05
Level at half time 3.3% 3.8% 3.1% 1.22× 26.41
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Antonio Spurs +16.5 95.6% 97.4% 89.7% 1.09× 1.03
San Antonio Spurs +18.5 96.7% 97.4% 91.5% 1.06× 1.03
San Antonio Spurs +20.5 97.6% 97.4% 93.1% 1.05× 1.03
San Antonio Spurs +12.5 92.3% 91.1% 83.9% 1.09× 1.10
San Antonio Spurs +14.5 94.1% 91.1% 87.0% 1.05× 1.10
San Antonio Spurs +10.5 90.1% 91.1% 80.3% 1.14× 1.10
San Antonio Spurs +9.5 88.8% 85.9% 78.1% 1.10× 1.16
San Antonio Spurs +8.5 87.4% 85.9% 75.7% 1.13× 1.16
San Antonio Spurs +7.5 85.9% 85.9% 73.0% 1.18× 1.16
San Antonio Spurs +6.5 84.3% 81.1% 70.6% 1.15× 1.23
San Antonio Spurs +5.5 82.6% 81.1% 68.0% 1.19× 1.23
San Antonio Spurs +4.5 80.7% 81.1% 65.7% 1.23× 1.23
San Antonio Spurs +3.5 78.8% 76.5% 63.1% 1.21× 1.31
Houston Rockets +20.5 79.5% 76.5% 89.1% 0.86× 1.31
San Antonio Spurs +2.5 76.7% 76.5% 60.5% 1.26× 1.31
Houston Rockets +18.5 75.3% 76.5% 86.4% 0.89× 1.31
San Antonio Spurs +1.5 74.5% 71.6% 57.9% 1.24× 1.40
Houston Rockets +16.5 70.7% 71.6% 83.5% 0.86× 1.40
San Antonio Spurs −1.5 69.7% 66.7% 53.7% 1.24× 1.50
San Antonio Spurs −2.5 67.2% 66.7% 50.9% 1.31× 1.50
Houston Rockets +14.5 65.7% 66.7% 80.1% 0.83× 1.50
San Antonio Spurs −3.5 64.5% 61.9% 48.4% 1.28× 1.62
San Antonio Spurs −4.5 61.9% 61.9% 46.0% 1.35× 1.62
Houston Rockets +12.5 60.4% 61.9% 76.0% 0.82× 1.62
San Antonio Spurs −5.5 59.1% 57.1% 42.9% 1.33× 1.75
San Antonio Spurs −6.5 56.3% 57.1% 40.0% 1.43× 1.75
Houston Rockets +10.5 54.9% 52.4% 71.0% 0.74× 1.91
San Antonio Spurs −7.5 53.5% 52.4% 37.0% 1.41× 1.91
Houston Rockets +9.5 52.1% 52.4% 68.7% 0.76× 1.91
San Antonio Spurs −8.5 50.7% 52.4% 34.1% 1.54× 1.91
Houston Rockets +8.5 49.3% 47.6% 65.9% 0.72× 2.10
San Antonio Spurs −9.5 47.9% 47.6% 31.3% 1.52× 2.10
Houston Rockets +7.5 46.5% 47.6% 63.0% 0.76× 2.10
San Antonio Spurs −10.5 45.1% 47.6% 29.0% 1.64× 2.10
Houston Rockets +6.5 43.7% 42.9% 60.0% 0.72× 2.33
Houston Rockets +5.5 40.9% 42.9% 57.1% 0.75× 2.33
San Antonio Spurs −12.5 39.6% 38.1% 24.0% 1.58× 2.63
Houston Rockets +4.5 38.1% 38.1% 54.1% 0.70× 2.63
Houston Rockets +3.5 35.5% 38.1% 51.6% 0.74× 2.63
San Antonio Spurs −14.5 34.3% 33.3% 19.9% 1.68× 3.01
Houston Rockets +2.5 32.8% 33.3% 49.1% 0.68× 3.01
Houston Rockets +1.5 30.3% 33.3% 46.3% 0.72× 3.01
San Antonio Spurs −16.5 29.3% 28.4% 16.5% 1.72× 3.53
Houston Rockets −1.5 25.5% 28.4% 42.1% 0.67× 3.53
San Antonio Spurs −18.5 24.7% 23.5% 13.6% 1.73× 4.25
Houston Rockets −2.5 23.3% 23.5% 39.5% 0.60× 4.25
Houston Rockets −3.5 21.2% 23.5% 36.9% 0.64× 4.25
San Antonio Spurs −20.5 20.5% 23.5% 10.9% 2.16× 4.25
Houston Rockets −4.5 19.3% 18.9% 34.3% 0.55× 5.29
Houston Rockets −5.5 17.4% 18.9% 32.0% 0.59× 5.29
Houston Rockets −6.5 15.7% 18.9% 29.4% 0.64× 5.30
Houston Rockets −7.5 14.1% 14.1% 27.0% 0.52× 7.09
Houston Rockets −8.5 12.6% 14.1% 24.3% 0.58× 7.09
Houston Rockets −9.5 11.2% 14.1% 21.9% 0.65× 7.09
Houston Rockets −10.5 9.9% 8.9% 19.7% 0.45× 11.25
Houston Rockets −12.5 7.7% 8.9% 16.1% 0.55× 11.25
Houston Rockets −14.5 5.9% 8.9% 13.0% 0.68× 11.25
Houston Rockets −16.5 4.4% 2.6% 10.3% 0.25× 38.72
Houston Rockets −18.5 3.3% 2.6% 8.5% 0.30× 38.73
Houston Rockets −20.5 2.4% 2.6% 6.9% 0.37× 38.73
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1st half highest scoring 56.4% 52.6% 53.5% 0.98× 1.90
2nd half highest scoring 43.6% 47.4% 46.5% 1.02× 2.11
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 highest scoring 28.2% 27.4% 29.2% 0.94× 3.65
Q3 highest scoring 27.8% 27.4% 27.5% 1.00× 3.65
Q2 highest scoring 26.5% 27.4% 26.3% 1.04× 3.65
Q4 highest scoring 17.5% 18.3% 17.0% 1.08× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Antonio Spurs at HT / San Antonio Spurs at FT 55.1% 56.8% 40.8% 1.39× 1.76
Houston Rockets at HT / Houston Rockets at FT 18.7% 15.5% 30.9% 0.50× 6.47
Houston Rockets at HT / San Antonio Spurs at FT 14.9% 12.2% 13.3% 0.92× 8.17
San Antonio Spurs at HT / Houston Rockets at FT 8.1% 8.3% 12.0% 0.69× 12.08
Level at HT / San Antonio Spurs at FT 2.2% 2.1% 1.7% 1.22× 47.75
Level at HT / Houston Rockets at FT 1.1% 2.1% 1.4% 1.49× 47.77
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Antonio Spurs to win 72.2% 68.7% 55.7% 1.23× 1.46
Houston Rockets to win 27.8% 31.3% 44.3% 0.71× 3.20
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Antonio Spurs even 50.0% 50.5% 49.7% 1.02× 1.98
Houston Rockets even 50.0% 50.5% 50.3% 1.00× 1.98
Total points odd 51.2% 50.5% 51.0% 0.99× 1.98
San Antonio Spurs odd 50.0% 49.5% 50.3% 0.98× 2.02
Houston Rockets odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.7% 1.00× 2.02
Total points even 48.8% 49.5% 49.0% 1.01× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 94.0% 94.0% 94.8% 0.99× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 6.0% 6.0% 5.2% 1.16× 16.66
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Antonio Spurs to win Q1 57.9% 57.3% 51.3% 1.12× 1.75
Houston Rockets to win Q1 37.5% 38.2% 44.1% 0.87× 2.62
Q1 tied 4.6% 4.2% 4.6% 0.90× 23.95
Q1 total 32
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 under 64.5 82.6% 83.2% 80.1% 1.04× 1.20
Q1 over 48.5 82.5% 83.2% 85.6% 0.97× 1.20
Q1 under 63.5 82.7% 82.8% 76.8% 1.08× 1.21
Q1 over 47.5 82.6% 82.8% 88.2% 0.94× 1.21
Q1 under 61.5 72.2% 73.1% 68.5% 1.07× 1.37
Q1 over 51.5 72.0% 73.1% 76.0% 0.96× 1.37
Q1 under 60.5 72.2% 72.7% 64.5% 1.13× 1.38
Q1 over 50.5 72.1% 72.7% 79.4% 0.92× 1.38
Q1 under 59.5 63.8% 62.3% 60.0% 1.04× 1.61
Q1 over 53.5 63.6% 62.3% 68.2% 0.91× 1.61
Q1 over 52.5 63.7% 61.7% 72.4% 0.85× 1.62
Q1 under 58.5 63.9% 61.7% 55.7% 1.11× 1.62
Q1 under 57.5 54.8% 52.7% 50.4% 1.04× 1.90
Q1 under 56.5 54.7% 52.7% 45.4% 1.16× 1.90
Q1 over 54.5 54.6% 52.7% 63.3% 0.83× 1.90
Q1 under 55.5 50.1% 52.7% 40.8% 1.29× 1.90
Q1 over 55.5 49.9% 47.3% 59.2% 0.80× 2.11
Q1 over 56.5 45.3% 47.3% 54.6% 0.87× 2.11
Q1 under 54.5 45.4% 47.3% 36.7% 1.29× 2.11
Q1 over 57.5 45.2% 47.3% 49.6% 0.95× 2.11
Q1 under 52.5 36.3% 38.3% 27.6% 1.39× 2.61
Q1 over 58.5 36.1% 38.3% 44.3% 0.86× 2.61
Q1 under 53.5 36.4% 37.7% 31.8% 1.19× 2.65
Q1 over 59.5 36.2% 37.7% 40.0% 0.94× 2.65
Q1 under 50.5 27.9% 27.3% 20.6% 1.33× 3.66
Q1 over 60.5 27.8% 27.3% 35.5% 0.77× 3.66
Q1 under 51.5 28.0% 26.9% 24.0% 1.12× 3.72
Q1 over 61.5 27.8% 26.9% 31.5% 0.85× 3.72
Q1 under 47.5 17.4% 17.2% 11.8% 1.46× 5.83
Q1 over 63.5 17.3% 17.2% 23.2% 0.74× 5.83
Q1 under 48.5 17.5% 16.8% 14.4% 1.16× 5.95
Q1 over 64.5 17.4% 16.8% 19.9% 0.84× 5.95
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Antonio Spurs to win Q2 57.8% 59.4% 49.3% 1.20× 1.68
Houston Rockets to win Q2 37.6% 35.8% 46.2% 0.77× 2.80
Q2 tied 4.6% 4.4% 4.5% 0.98× 22.89
Q2 total 32
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 under 64.5 83.3% 83.1% 80.9% 1.03× 1.20
Q2 over 48.5 81.4% 83.1% 84.7% 0.98× 1.20
Q2 under 63.5 83.4% 83.0% 77.5% 1.07× 1.21
Q2 over 47.5 81.6% 83.0% 87.2% 0.95× 1.21
Q2 under 61.5 73.2% 73.0% 70.4% 1.04× 1.37
Q2 over 51.5 70.7% 73.0% 74.2% 0.98× 1.37
Q2 under 60.5 73.2% 72.0% 65.7% 1.10× 1.39
Q2 over 50.5 70.9% 72.0% 78.1% 0.92× 1.39
Q2 under 59.5 65.0% 67.6% 61.9% 1.09× 1.48
Q2 under 58.5 65.0% 67.4% 57.3% 1.17× 1.49
Q2 over 53.5 62.3% 62.0% 65.8% 0.94× 1.61
Q2 over 52.5 62.4% 60.7% 70.3% 0.86× 1.65
Q2 under 56.5 56.0% 58.2% 48.3% 1.20× 1.72
Q2 under 57.5 56.1% 57.8% 52.7% 1.10× 1.73
Q2 over 54.5 53.3% 52.7% 61.1% 0.86× 1.90
Q2 under 55.5 51.4% 52.7% 43.7% 1.21× 1.90
Q2 over 55.5 48.6% 47.3% 56.3% 0.84× 2.11
Q2 under 54.5 46.7% 47.3% 38.9% 1.22× 2.11
Q2 over 57.5 43.9% 42.2% 47.3% 0.89× 2.37
Q2 over 56.5 44.0% 41.8% 51.7% 0.81× 2.39
Q2 under 52.5 37.6% 39.3% 29.7% 1.32× 2.55
Q2 under 53.5 37.7% 38.0% 34.2% 1.11× 2.63
Q2 over 58.5 35.0% 32.6% 42.7% 0.77× 3.06
Q2 over 59.5 35.0% 32.4% 38.1% 0.85× 3.09
Q2 under 50.5 29.1% 28.0% 21.9% 1.28× 3.57
Q2 over 60.5 26.8% 28.0% 34.3% 0.82× 3.57
Q2 under 51.5 29.3% 27.0% 25.8% 1.05× 3.71
Q2 over 61.5 26.8% 27.0% 29.6% 0.91× 3.71
Q2 under 47.5 18.4% 17.0% 12.8% 1.33× 5.88
Q2 over 63.5 16.6% 17.0% 22.5% 0.76× 5.88
Q2 under 48.5 18.6% 16.9% 15.3% 1.10× 5.93
Q2 over 64.5 16.7% 16.9% 19.1% 0.88× 5.93
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Antonio Spurs to win Q3 57.8% 56.8% 50.9% 1.12× 1.76
Houston Rockets to win Q3 37.6% 38.8% 44.3% 0.88× 2.58
Q3 tied 4.6% 4.3% 4.9% 0.88× 23.43
Q3 total 32
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 over 47.5 83.3% 82.3% 88.1% 0.93× 1.22
Q3 under 63.5 82.5% 82.3% 75.9% 1.08× 1.22
Q3 over 48.5 83.2% 82.2% 85.6% 0.96× 1.22
Q3 under 64.5 82.4% 82.2% 79.2% 1.04× 1.22
Q3 over 51.5 72.8% 72.5% 76.1% 0.95× 1.38
Q3 under 61.5 71.7% 72.5% 67.7% 1.07× 1.38
Q3 over 50.5 73.0% 71.8% 79.7% 0.90× 1.39
Q3 under 60.5 71.8% 71.8% 63.5% 1.13× 1.39
Q3 over 53.5 64.4% 62.6% 68.3% 0.92× 1.60
Q3 under 59.5 63.3% 62.6% 59.0% 1.06× 1.60
Q3 over 52.5 64.6% 62.0% 72.2% 0.86× 1.61
Q3 under 58.5 63.3% 62.0% 54.8% 1.13× 1.61
Q3 over 54.5 55.4% 58.4% 63.9% 0.91× 1.71
Q3 under 57.5 54.1% 52.6% 49.8% 1.06× 1.90
Q3 under 56.5 54.1% 52.3% 45.0% 1.16× 1.91
Q3 over 55.5 50.7% 52.3% 59.9% 0.87× 1.91
Q3 under 55.5 49.3% 47.7% 40.1% 1.19× 2.10
Q3 over 56.5 45.9% 47.7% 55.0% 0.87× 2.10
Q3 over 57.5 45.9% 47.4% 50.2% 0.94× 2.11
Q3 under 54.5 44.6% 41.6% 36.1% 1.15× 2.40
Q3 over 58.5 36.7% 38.1% 45.2% 0.84× 2.63
Q3 under 52.5 35.4% 38.0% 27.8% 1.37× 2.63
Q3 over 59.5 36.7% 37.4% 41.0% 0.91× 2.67
Q3 under 53.5 35.6% 37.4% 31.7% 1.18× 2.67
Q3 over 60.5 28.2% 28.2% 36.5% 0.77× 3.55
Q3 under 50.5 27.1% 28.2% 20.3% 1.39× 3.55
Q3 over 61.5 28.3% 27.5% 32.3% 0.85× 3.63
Q3 under 51.5 27.2% 27.5% 23.9% 1.15× 3.64
Q3 over 64.5 17.6% 17.8% 20.8% 0.85× 5.62
Q3 under 48.5 16.8% 17.8% 14.4% 1.23× 5.63
Q3 over 63.5 17.5% 17.7% 24.1% 0.73× 5.66
Q3 under 47.5 16.7% 17.7% 11.9% 1.49× 5.66
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Antonio Spurs to win Q4 57.6% 52.1% 48.3% 1.08× 1.92
Houston Rockets to win Q4 37.7% 42.4% 46.4% 0.91× 2.36
Q4 tied 4.7% 5.2% 5.3% 0.98× 19.28
Q4 total 32
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 under 61.5 83.7% 82.0% 77.5% 1.06× 1.22
Q4 over 45.5 80.6% 82.0% 84.6% 0.97× 1.22
Q4 under 62.5 83.7% 81.9% 80.4% 1.02× 1.22
Q4 over 46.5 80.3% 81.9% 81.7% 1.00× 1.22
Q4 under 59.5 73.8% 72.3% 70.2% 1.03× 1.38
Q4 under 58.5 73.7% 71.5% 66.2% 1.08× 1.40
Q4 over 48.5 69.7% 67.4% 75.5% 0.89× 1.48
Q4 under 56.5 65.7% 67.4% 57.2% 1.18× 1.48
Q4 over 49.5 69.4% 66.7% 72.3% 0.92× 1.50
Q4 under 57.5 65.9% 66.6% 61.9% 1.08× 1.50
Q4 over 51.5 61.0% 61.6% 64.7% 0.95× 1.62
Q4 over 50.5 61.3% 61.4% 68.5% 0.90× 1.63
Q4 under 54.5 56.9% 58.4% 48.6% 1.20× 1.71
Q4 under 55.5 57.1% 57.4% 52.9% 1.09× 1.74
Q4 under 53.5 52.4% 52.5% 44.3% 1.18× 1.91
Q4 over 52.5 52.2% 52.5% 60.4% 0.87× 1.91
Q4 over 53.5 47.6% 47.5% 55.7% 0.85× 2.11
Q4 under 52.5 47.8% 47.5% 39.6% 1.20× 2.11
Q4 over 55.5 42.9% 42.6% 47.1% 0.90× 2.35
Q4 over 54.5 43.1% 41.6% 51.4% 0.81× 2.40
Q4 under 50.5 38.7% 38.6% 31.5% 1.23× 2.59
Q4 under 51.5 39.0% 38.4% 35.3% 1.09× 2.61
Q4 over 57.5 34.1% 33.4% 38.1% 0.88× 3.00
Q4 under 49.5 30.6% 33.3% 27.7% 1.20× 3.00
Q4 over 56.5 34.3% 32.6% 42.8% 0.76× 3.07
Q4 under 48.5 30.3% 32.6% 24.5% 1.33× 3.07
Q4 over 58.5 26.3% 28.5% 33.8% 0.84× 3.51
Q4 over 59.5 26.2% 27.7% 29.8% 0.93× 3.61
Q4 under 46.5 19.7% 18.1% 18.3% 0.99× 5.53
Q4 over 62.5 16.3% 18.1% 19.6% 0.92× 5.53
Q4 under 45.5 19.4% 18.0% 15.4% 1.17× 5.56
Q4 over 61.5 16.3% 18.0% 22.5% 0.80× 5.56
Team total 58
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Antonio Spurs under 124.5 81.5% 80.7% 76.8% 1.05× 1.24
Houston Rockets under 115.5 80.6% 80.7% 58.6% 1.38× 1.24
Houston Rockets over 95.5 80.1% 80.7% 91.9% 0.88× 1.24
Houston Rockets under 118.5 79.4% 78.3% 67.4% 1.16× 1.28
San Antonio Spurs over 104.5 78.8% 75.1% 79.8% 0.94× 1.33
Houston Rockets over 101.5 72.2% 71.8% 82.0% 0.88× 1.39
San Antonio Spurs under 121.5 73.9% 70.7% 69.6% 1.02× 1.41
Houston Rockets under 112.5 72.9% 70.7% 48.5% 1.46× 1.41
Houston Rockets over 98.5 72.2% 70.7% 87.6% 0.81× 1.41
San Antonio Spurs over 107.5 70.7% 70.7% 72.7% 0.97× 1.41
Houston Rockets over 103.5 66.4% 66.6% 77.5% 0.86× 1.50
Houston Rockets under 113.5 65.8% 66.6% 52.0% 1.28× 1.50
San Antonio Spurs under 119.5 68.1% 66.4% 63.5% 1.05× 1.51
Houston Rockets over 100.5 66.2% 66.4% 84.1% 0.79× 1.51
Houston Rockets under 110.5 66.9% 66.4% 42.1% 1.58× 1.51
San Antonio Spurs over 109.5 64.7% 61.2% 67.0% 0.91× 1.63
San Antonio Spurs under 117.5 61.8% 61.2% 57.8% 1.06× 1.63
Houston Rockets under 108.5 60.5% 61.2% 36.0% 1.70× 1.63
Houston Rockets under 111.5 59.5% 57.9% 45.4% 1.28× 1.73
Houston Rockets over 102.5 59.7% 57.1% 79.7% 0.72× 1.75
San Antonio Spurs over 111.5 58.2% 57.1% 61.1% 0.93× 1.75
San Antonio Spurs under 115.5 55.2% 57.1% 51.6% 1.11× 1.75
Houston Rockets under 106.5 53.8% 52.3% 31.1% 1.68× 1.91
Houston Rockets over 104.5 53.0% 52.3% 75.0% 0.70× 1.91
San Antonio Spurs over 113.5 51.5% 52.3% 54.3% 0.96× 1.91
San Antonio Spurs under 114.5 51.9% 52.3% 48.6% 1.07× 1.91
Houston Rockets under 105.5 50.4% 52.3% 28.1% 1.86× 1.91
Houston Rockets over 107.5 53.6% 52.2% 66.6% 0.78× 1.91
Houston Rockets under 109.5 53.0% 52.2% 39.1% 1.34× 1.91
Houston Rockets over 109.5 47.0% 47.8% 60.9% 0.78× 2.09
Houston Rockets under 107.5 46.4% 47.8% 33.4% 1.43× 2.09
Houston Rockets over 105.5 49.6% 47.7% 71.9% 0.66× 2.09
Houston Rockets under 104.5 47.0% 47.7% 25.0% 1.91× 2.09
San Antonio Spurs under 113.5 48.5% 47.7% 45.7% 1.04× 2.09
San Antonio Spurs over 114.5 48.1% 47.7% 51.4% 0.93× 2.09
Houston Rockets over 106.5 46.2% 47.7% 68.9% 0.69× 2.09
San Antonio Spurs over 115.5 44.8% 42.9% 48.4% 0.89× 2.33
San Antonio Spurs under 111.5 41.8% 42.9% 38.9% 1.10× 2.33
Houston Rockets under 102.5 40.3% 42.9% 20.3% 2.11× 2.33
Houston Rockets over 111.5 40.5% 42.1% 54.6% 0.77× 2.38
San Antonio Spurs over 117.5 38.2% 38.8% 42.2% 0.92× 2.58
Houston Rockets over 108.5 39.5% 38.8% 64.0% 0.61× 2.58
San Antonio Spurs under 109.5 35.3% 38.8% 33.0% 1.18× 2.58
Houston Rockets under 100.5 33.8% 33.6% 15.9% 2.12× 2.98
Houston Rockets over 110.5 33.1% 33.6% 57.9% 0.58× 2.98
San Antonio Spurs over 119.5 31.9% 33.6% 36.5% 0.92× 2.98
Houston Rockets over 113.5 34.2% 33.4% 48.0% 0.70× 2.99
Houston Rockets under 103.5 33.6% 33.4% 22.5% 1.48× 2.99
San Antonio Spurs under 107.5 29.3% 29.3% 27.3% 1.07× 3.42
Houston Rockets over 112.5 27.1% 29.3% 51.5% 0.57× 3.42
Houston Rockets under 98.5 27.8% 29.3% 12.4% 2.37× 3.42
San Antonio Spurs over 121.5 26.1% 29.3% 30.4% 0.96× 3.42
Houston Rockets under 101.5 27.8% 28.2% 18.0% 1.56× 3.55
San Antonio Spurs under 104.5 21.2% 24.9% 20.2% 1.23× 4.02
Houston Rockets over 118.5 20.6% 21.7% 32.6% 0.67× 4.60
Houston Rockets under 95.5 19.9% 19.3% 8.1% 2.39× 5.18
Houston Rockets over 115.5 19.4% 19.3% 41.4% 0.47× 5.18
San Antonio Spurs over 124.5 18.5% 19.3% 23.2% 0.83× 5.18
Total points 48
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 243.5 points 86.0% 85.5% 78.2% 1.09× 1.17
Over 203.5 points 85.3% 85.5% 89.8% 0.95× 1.17
Under 239.5 points 86.4% 85.0% 72.5% 1.17× 1.18
Over 199.5 points 85.9% 85.0% 93.0% 0.91× 1.18
Under 238.5 points 79.2% 78.1% 70.9% 1.10× 1.28
Over 208.5 points 78.4% 78.1% 84.1% 0.93× 1.28
Under 234.5 points 79.5% 75.6% 63.3% 1.19× 1.32
Over 204.5 points 79.0% 75.6% 88.9% 0.85× 1.32
Under 233.5 points 70.8% 71.0% 61.4% 1.16× 1.41
Under 229.5 points 71.0% 70.8% 53.3% 1.33× 1.41
Over 209.5 points 70.3% 70.8% 82.9% 0.86× 1.41
Over 213.5 points 69.7% 66.6% 76.4% 0.87× 1.50
Under 230.5 points 65.1% 66.6% 55.4% 1.20× 1.50
Under 226.5 points 65.2% 65.9% 47.3% 1.39× 1.52
Under 228.5 points 61.0% 61.7% 51.3% 1.20× 1.62
Over 212.5 points 64.5% 61.5% 77.8% 0.79× 1.63
Under 224.5 points 61.1% 61.5% 43.5% 1.41× 1.63
Over 214.5 points 60.4% 61.5% 75.1% 0.82× 1.63
Over 216.5 points 56.1% 56.5% 71.6% 0.79× 1.77
Under 222.5 points 56.8% 56.5% 39.6% 1.43× 1.77
Over 218.5 points 51.8% 52.3% 67.8% 0.77× 1.91
Under 220.5 points 52.5% 52.3% 35.8% 1.46× 1.91
Under 219.5 points 50.4% 52.3% 33.9% 1.54× 1.91
Under 223.5 points 50.6% 52.2% 41.7% 1.25× 1.92
Over 223.5 points 49.4% 47.8% 58.3% 0.82× 2.09
Over 219.5 points 49.6% 47.7% 66.1% 0.72× 2.10
Under 218.5 points 48.2% 47.7% 32.2% 1.48× 2.10
Over 220.5 points 47.5% 47.7% 64.2% 0.74× 2.10
Under 216.5 points 43.9% 43.5% 28.4% 1.53× 2.30
Over 222.5 points 43.2% 43.5% 60.4% 0.72× 2.30
Under 214.5 points 39.6% 38.5% 24.9% 1.55× 2.60
Over 224.5 points 38.9% 38.5% 56.5% 0.68× 2.60
Under 212.5 points 35.5% 38.5% 22.2% 1.74× 2.60
Over 228.5 points 39.0% 38.3% 48.7% 0.79× 2.61
Over 226.5 points 34.8% 34.1% 52.7% 0.65× 2.93
Over 230.5 points 34.9% 33.4% 44.6% 0.75× 2.99
Under 213.5 points 30.3% 33.4% 23.6% 1.42× 3.00
Under 209.5 points 29.7% 29.2% 17.1% 1.70× 3.43
Over 229.5 points 29.0% 29.2% 46.7% 0.62× 3.43
Over 233.5 points 29.2% 29.0% 38.6% 0.75× 3.45
Under 204.5 points 21.0% 24.4% 11.1% 2.19× 4.10
Over 234.5 points 20.5% 24.4% 36.7% 0.66× 4.10
Under 208.5 points 21.6% 21.9% 15.9% 1.37× 4.57
Over 238.5 points 20.8% 21.9% 29.1% 0.75× 4.57
Under 199.5 points 14.1% 15.0% 7.0% 2.13× 6.68
Over 239.5 points 13.6% 15.0% 27.5% 0.54× 6.68
Under 203.5 points 14.7% 14.5% 10.2% 1.43× 6.88
Over 243.5 points 14.0% 14.5% 21.8% 0.67× 6.88
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Antonio Spurs to win both halves 37.8% 36.3% 25.2% 1.44× 2.76
Houston Rockets to win both halves 9.5% 8.9% 17.8% 0.50× 11.30
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
San Antonio Spurs by 1-5 13.1% 12.3% 12.8% 0.96× 8.11
San Antonio Spurs by 6-10 14.0% 12.3% 13.9% 0.88× 8.11
San Antonio Spurs by 11-15 13.3% 12.3% 10.8% 1.14× 8.11
San Antonio Spurs by 26+ 12.1% 12.3% 6.2% 1.99× 8.11
San Antonio Spurs by 16-20 11.2% 12.3% 7.3% 1.68× 8.11
Houston Rockets by 1-5 10.4% 12.3% 12.3% 1.01× 8.11
San Antonio Spurs by 21-25 8.4% 7.5% 4.7% 1.58× 13.40
Houston Rockets by 6-10 7.5% 7.5% 12.3% 0.61× 13.40
Houston Rockets by 11-15 4.8% 2.0% 8.0% 0.25× 49.29
Houston Rockets by 16-20 2.7% 2.0% 4.9% 0.42× 49.30
Houston Rockets by 21-25 1.4% 2.0% 3.0% 0.67× 49.32
Houston Rockets by 26+ 1.0% 2.0% 3.9% 0.53× 49.32
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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