SMU Mustangs v Grand Canyon Lopes — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 21 November 2026 · NCAAW · 2027
NCAAW results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.SMU Mustangs win
22.8%
Draw
0.0%
Grand Canyon Lopes win
77.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nba-normal | 61.95–70.15 | 62-70 0% | 49% | 0% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
Century marks 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMU Mustangs to score 100+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 0.20× | 283.36 |
| SMU Mustangs to score 110+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.64× | 283.36 |
| SMU Mustangs to score 120+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 2.91× | 283.36 |
| SMU Mustangs to score 130+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 7.58× | 283.36 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes to score 100+ | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.72× | 283.34 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes to score 110+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 4.74× | 283.36 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes to score 120+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 18.95× | 283.36 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes to score 130+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 37.89× | 283.36 |
| Both sides to score 100+ | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 6.32× | 283.36 |
H1 result 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Canyon Lopes to win H1 | 65.3% | 68.3% | 39.9% | 1.71× | 1.47 |
| SMU Mustangs to win H1 | 30.6% | 33.1% | 56.4% | 0.59× | 3.02 |
| H1 tied | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 1.05× | 25.86 |
H1 total 22
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H1 under 75.5 | 88.8% | 87.7% | 88.8% | 0.99× | 1.14 |
| H1 over 51.5 | 87.7% | 87.7% | 82.0% | 1.07× | 1.14 |
| H1 under 71.5 | 79.4% | 77.4% | 81.4% | 0.95× | 1.29 |
| H1 over 55.5 | 77.6% | 77.4% | 71.0% | 1.09× | 1.29 |
| H1 under 68.5 | 70.1% | 73.5% | 73.5% | 1.00× | 1.36 |
| H1 over 58.5 | 67.8% | 67.4% | 61.4% | 1.10× | 1.48 |
| H1 under 66.5 | 62.9% | 62.7% | 67.1% | 0.93× | 1.59 |
| H1 over 60.5 | 60.4% | 62.7% | 53.9% | 1.16× | 1.59 |
| H1 under 64.5 | 55.2% | 58.2% | 60.7% | 0.96× | 1.72 |
| H1 over 62.5 | 52.6% | 52.6% | 46.3% | 1.14× | 1.90 |
| H1 under 63.5 | 51.3% | 52.6% | 57.1% | 0.92× | 1.90 |
| H1 over 63.5 | 48.7% | 47.4% | 42.9% | 1.10× | 2.11 |
| H1 under 62.5 | 47.4% | 47.4% | 53.7% | 0.88× | 2.11 |
| H1 over 64.5 | 44.8% | 41.8% | 39.3% | 1.06× | 2.39 |
| H1 under 60.5 | 39.6% | 37.3% | 46.1% | 0.81× | 2.68 |
| H1 over 66.5 | 37.1% | 37.3% | 32.9% | 1.13× | 2.68 |
| H1 under 58.5 | 32.2% | 32.6% | 38.6% | 0.84× | 3.07 |
| H1 over 68.5 | 30.0% | 26.5% | 26.5% | 1.00× | 3.77 |
| H1 under 55.5 | 22.4% | 22.6% | 29.0% | 0.78× | 4.43 |
| H1 over 71.5 | 20.6% | 22.6% | 18.6% | 1.22× | 4.43 |
| H1 under 51.5 | 12.3% | 12.3% | 18.0% | 0.68× | 8.14 |
| H1 over 75.5 | 11.2% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 1.10× | 8.14 |
H2 result 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Canyon Lopes to win H2 | 66.4% | 62.7% | 40.6% | 1.55× | 1.59 |
| SMU Mustangs to win H2 | 29.8% | 31.3% | 56.0% | 0.56× | 3.19 |
| H2 tied | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.16× | 25.36 |
H2 total 22
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H2 under 81.5 | 87.7% | 85.2% | 85.8% | 0.99× | 1.17 |
| H2 over 57.5 | 86.6% | 85.2% | 82.2% | 1.04× | 1.17 |
| H2 under 77.5 | 78.3% | 75.8% | 77.9% | 0.97× | 1.32 |
| H2 over 61.5 | 76.6% | 75.8% | 71.3% | 1.06× | 1.32 |
| H2 under 74.5 | 69.2% | 66.4% | 69.9% | 0.95× | 1.51 |
| H2 over 64.5 | 67.0% | 66.4% | 62.1% | 1.07× | 1.51 |
| H2 under 72.5 | 62.3% | 61.6% | 64.1% | 0.96× | 1.62 |
| H2 over 66.5 | 59.9% | 57.3% | 55.4% | 1.04× | 1.74 |
| H2 under 70.5 | 55.0% | 52.4% | 57.8% | 0.91× | 1.91 |
| H2 over 68.5 | 52.5% | 52.4% | 48.7% | 1.08× | 1.91 |
| H2 under 69.5 | 51.2% | 52.4% | 54.8% | 0.96× | 1.91 |
| H2 over 69.5 | 48.8% | 47.6% | 45.2% | 1.05× | 2.10 |
| H2 under 68.5 | 47.5% | 47.6% | 51.3% | 0.93× | 2.10 |
| H2 over 70.5 | 45.0% | 47.6% | 42.2% | 1.13× | 2.10 |
| H2 under 66.5 | 40.1% | 42.7% | 44.6% | 0.96× | 2.35 |
| H2 over 72.5 | 37.7% | 38.4% | 36.0% | 1.07× | 2.61 |
| H2 under 64.5 | 33.0% | 33.6% | 37.9% | 0.89× | 2.97 |
| H2 over 74.5 | 30.8% | 33.6% | 30.1% | 1.12× | 2.97 |
| H2 under 61.5 | 23.4% | 24.2% | 28.7% | 0.84× | 4.13 |
| H2 over 77.5 | 21.7% | 24.2% | 22.1% | 1.10× | 4.13 |
| H2 under 57.5 | 13.4% | 14.8% | 17.8% | 0.83× | 6.76 |
| H2 over 81.5 | 12.3% | 14.8% | 14.2% | 1.04× | 6.76 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Canyon Lopes leading at half time | 65.3% | 68.4% | 39.9% | 1.71× | 1.46 |
| SMU Mustangs leading at half time | 30.6% | 32.7% | 56.4% | 0.58× | 3.06 |
| Level at half time | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 1.03× | 26.40 |
Handicap 60
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Canyon Lopes +20.5 | 99.5% | 97.4% | 82.0% | 1.19× | 1.03 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes +12.5 | 96.6% | 97.4% | 67.9% | 1.44× | 1.03 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes +14.5 | 97.8% | 97.4% | 72.1% | 1.35× | 1.03 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes +16.5 | 98.6% | 97.4% | 75.7% | 1.29× | 1.03 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes +18.5 | 99.1% | 97.4% | 79.3% | 1.23× | 1.03 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes +10.5 | 95.0% | 97.4% | 63.2% | 1.54× | 1.03 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes +8.5 | 92.9% | 91.1% | 58.0% | 1.57× | 1.10 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes +9.5 | 94.0% | 91.1% | 60.7% | 1.50× | 1.10 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes +7.5 | 91.6% | 91.1% | 55.2% | 1.65× | 1.10 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes +6.5 | 90.1% | 91.1% | 52.4% | 1.74× | 1.10 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes +5.5 | 88.4% | 85.9% | 50.3% | 1.71× | 1.16 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes +4.5 | 86.6% | 85.9% | 47.8% | 1.80× | 1.16 |
| SMU Mustangs +20.5 | 86.5% | 85.9% | 92.7% | 0.93× | 1.16 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes +3.5 | 84.5% | 81.1% | 45.8% | 1.77× | 1.23 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes +2.5 | 82.3% | 81.1% | 43.3% | 1.87× | 1.23 |
| SMU Mustangs +18.5 | 82.1% | 81.1% | 91.1% | 0.89× | 1.23 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes +1.5 | 79.9% | 76.5% | 41.3% | 1.85× | 1.31 |
| SMU Mustangs +16.5 | 76.9% | 76.5% | 89.1% | 0.86× | 1.31 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes −1.5 | 74.2% | 71.6% | 38.8% | 1.85× | 1.40 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes −2.5 | 71.1% | 71.6% | 36.7% | 1.95× | 1.40 |
| SMU Mustangs +14.5 | 71.0% | 71.6% | 86.7% | 0.83× | 1.40 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes −3.5 | 67.7% | 66.7% | 34.3% | 1.95× | 1.50 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes −4.5 | 64.3% | 61.9% | 32.2% | 1.92× | 1.62 |
| SMU Mustangs +12.5 | 64.5% | 61.9% | 83.8% | 0.74× | 1.62 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes −5.5 | 60.8% | 61.9% | 29.9% | 2.07× | 1.62 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes −6.5 | 57.2% | 57.1% | 27.7% | 2.06× | 1.75 |
| SMU Mustangs +10.5 | 57.4% | 57.1% | 80.4% | 0.71× | 1.75 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes −7.5 | 53.5% | 52.4% | 25.5% | 2.06× | 1.91 |
| SMU Mustangs +9.5 | 53.8% | 52.4% | 78.7% | 0.67× | 1.91 |
| SMU Mustangs +8.5 | 50.2% | 52.4% | 76.5% | 0.69× | 1.91 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes −8.5 | 49.8% | 47.6% | 23.5% | 2.02× | 2.10 |
| SMU Mustangs +7.5 | 46.5% | 47.6% | 74.5% | 0.64× | 2.10 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes −9.5 | 46.2% | 47.6% | 21.3% | 2.23× | 2.10 |
| SMU Mustangs +6.5 | 42.8% | 42.9% | 72.3% | 0.59× | 2.33 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes −10.5 | 42.6% | 42.9% | 19.6% | 2.19× | 2.33 |
| SMU Mustangs +5.5 | 39.2% | 38.1% | 70.1% | 0.54× | 2.63 |
| SMU Mustangs +4.5 | 35.7% | 38.1% | 67.8% | 0.56× | 2.63 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes −12.5 | 35.5% | 38.1% | 16.2% | 2.34× | 2.63 |
| SMU Mustangs +3.5 | 32.3% | 33.3% | 65.7% | 0.51× | 3.01 |
| SMU Mustangs +2.5 | 28.9% | 28.4% | 63.3% | 0.45× | 3.53 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes −14.5 | 29.0% | 28.4% | 13.3% | 2.14× | 3.53 |
| SMU Mustangs +1.5 | 25.8% | 28.4% | 61.2% | 0.46× | 3.53 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes −16.5 | 23.1% | 23.5% | 10.9% | 2.16× | 4.25 |
| SMU Mustangs −1.5 | 20.1% | 23.5% | 58.7% | 0.40× | 4.25 |
| SMU Mustangs −2.5 | 17.7% | 18.9% | 56.7% | 0.33× | 5.29 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes −18.5 | 17.9% | 18.9% | 8.9% | 2.12× | 5.29 |
| SMU Mustangs −3.5 | 15.5% | 18.9% | 54.2% | 0.35× | 5.30 |
| SMU Mustangs −4.5 | 13.4% | 14.1% | 52.2% | 0.27× | 7.09 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes −20.5 | 13.5% | 14.1% | 7.3% | 1.94× | 7.09 |
| SMU Mustangs −5.5 | 11.6% | 14.1% | 49.7% | 0.28× | 7.09 |
| SMU Mustangs −6.5 | 9.9% | 8.9% | 47.6% | 0.19× | 11.25 |
| SMU Mustangs −7.5 | 8.4% | 8.9% | 44.8% | 0.20× | 11.25 |
| SMU Mustangs −8.5 | 7.1% | 8.9% | 42.0% | 0.21× | 11.25 |
| SMU Mustangs −9.5 | 6.0% | 8.9% | 39.3% | 0.23× | 11.25 |
| SMU Mustangs −10.5 | 5.0% | 2.6% | 36.8% | 0.07× | 38.72 |
| SMU Mustangs −12.5 | 3.4% | 2.6% | 32.1% | 0.08× | 38.73 |
| SMU Mustangs −14.5 | 2.2% | 2.6% | 27.9% | 0.09× | 38.73 |
| SMU Mustangs −16.5 | 1.4% | 2.6% | 24.3% | 0.11× | 38.73 |
| SMU Mustangs −18.5 | 0.9% | 2.6% | 20.7% | 0.12× | 38.74 |
| SMU Mustangs −20.5 | 0.5% | 2.6% | 18.0% | 0.14× | 38.74 |
Highest scoring half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 72.2% | 67.1% | 66.7% | 1.01× | 1.49 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 27.8% | 32.9% | 33.3% | 0.99× | 3.04 |
Highest scoring quarter 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 highest scoring | 34.5% | 31.9% | 31.2% | 1.02× | 3.14 |
| Q3 highest scoring | 32.7% | 31.9% | 31.3% | 1.02× | 3.14 |
| Q1 highest scoring | 17.2% | 18.3% | 19.6% | 0.94× | 5.46 |
| Q2 highest scoring | 15.7% | 18.3% | 17.9% | 1.02× | 5.46 |
HT/FT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Canyon Lopes at HT / Grand Canyon Lopes at FT | 58.4% | 56.8% | 30.1% | 1.88× | 1.76 |
| SMU Mustangs at HT / Grand Canyon Lopes at FT | 15.9% | 15.4% | 8.2% | 1.89× | 6.47 |
| SMU Mustangs at HT / SMU Mustangs at FT | 14.7% | 12.2% | 48.3% | 0.25× | 8.17 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes at HT / SMU Mustangs at FT | 7.0% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 0.85× | 12.09 |
| Level at HT / Grand Canyon Lopes at FT | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.20× | 47.74 |
| Level at HT / SMU Mustangs at FT | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.09× | 47.77 |
Moneyline 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Canyon Lopes to win | 77.2% | 75.1% | 40.1% | 1.87× | 1.33 |
| SMU Mustangs to win | 22.8% | 24.9% | 59.9% | 0.42× | 4.01 |
Odd/Even 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total points odd | 51.4% | 50.5% | 51.5% | 0.98× | 1.98 |
| SMU Mustangs even | 50.1% | 50.5% | 49.4% | 1.02× | 1.98 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes even | 50.0% | 50.5% | 50.1% | 1.01× | 1.98 |
| SMU Mustangs odd | 49.9% | 49.5% | 50.6% | 0.98× | 2.02 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes odd | 50.0% | 49.5% | 49.9% | 0.99× | 2.02 |
| Total points even | 48.6% | 49.5% | 48.5% | 1.02× | 2.02 |
Overtime 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No overtime | 94.8% | 94.0% | 95.6% | 0.98× | 1.06 |
| Match to go to overtime | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 1.35× | 16.66 |
Q1 result 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Canyon Lopes to win Q1 | 59.0% | 57.3% | 40.4% | 1.42× | 1.75 |
| SMU Mustangs to win Q1 | 35.1% | 38.2% | 54.7% | 0.70× | 2.62 |
| Q1 tied | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 1.11× | 18.32 |
Q1 total 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 under 40.5 | 90.2% | 91.1% | 89.9% | 1.01× | 1.10 |
| Q1 over 24.5 | 85.9% | 87.4% | 81.8% | 1.07× | 1.14 |
| Q1 under 37.5 | 80.2% | 82.8% | 81.6% | 1.02× | 1.21 |
| Q1 over 27.5 | 73.6% | 72.7% | 67.7% | 1.07× | 1.38 |
| Q1 under 35.5 | 71.0% | 72.7% | 73.2% | 0.99× | 1.38 |
| Q1 over 29.5 | 63.1% | 61.7% | 56.9% | 1.09× | 1.62 |
| Q1 under 33.5 | 60.2% | 61.7% | 64.0% | 0.96× | 1.62 |
| Q1 under 32.5 | 54.4% | 52.7% | 59.1% | 0.89× | 1.90 |
| Q1 over 31.5 | 51.5% | 52.7% | 46.0% | 1.14× | 1.90 |
| Q1 under 31.5 | 48.5% | 47.3% | 54.0% | 0.88× | 2.11 |
| Q1 over 32.5 | 45.6% | 47.3% | 40.9% | 1.16× | 2.11 |
| Q1 over 33.5 | 39.8% | 38.3% | 36.0% | 1.06× | 2.61 |
| Q1 under 29.5 | 36.9% | 38.3% | 43.1% | 0.89× | 2.61 |
| Q1 over 35.5 | 29.0% | 27.3% | 26.8% | 1.02× | 3.66 |
| Q1 under 27.5 | 26.4% | 27.3% | 32.3% | 0.85× | 3.66 |
| Q1 over 37.5 | 19.8% | 17.2% | 18.4% | 0.93× | 5.82 |
| Q1 under 24.5 | 14.1% | 12.6% | 18.2% | 0.69× | 7.95 |
| Q1 over 40.5 | 9.8% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 0.88× | 11.19 |
Q2 result 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Canyon Lopes to win Q2 | 58.8% | 59.4% | 41.5% | 1.43× | 1.68 |
| SMU Mustangs to win Q2 | 35.5% | 35.7% | 52.9% | 0.68× | 2.80 |
| Q2 tied | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 1.07× | 16.50 |
Q2 total 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 under 39.5 | 88.3% | 87.3% | 88.4% | 0.99× | 1.15 |
| Q2 over 23.5 | 88.0% | 87.3% | 84.6% | 1.03× | 1.15 |
| Q2 under 36.5 | 77.3% | 76.8% | 78.7% | 0.98× | 1.30 |
| Q2 over 26.5 | 76.7% | 76.8% | 71.6% | 1.07× | 1.30 |
| Q2 under 34.5 | 67.5% | 67.4% | 70.1% | 0.96× | 1.49 |
| Q2 over 28.5 | 66.8% | 67.4% | 61.2% | 1.10× | 1.49 |
| Q2 under 32.5 | 56.3% | 58.2% | 60.8% | 0.96× | 1.72 |
| Q2 over 30.5 | 55.4% | 58.2% | 49.9% | 1.17× | 1.72 |
| Q2 under 31.5 | 50.4% | 52.7% | 55.7% | 0.95× | 1.90 |
| Q2 over 31.5 | 49.6% | 47.3% | 44.3% | 1.07× | 2.11 |
| Q2 under 30.5 | 44.6% | 41.8% | 50.1% | 0.84× | 2.39 |
| Q2 over 32.5 | 43.7% | 41.8% | 39.2% | 1.07× | 2.39 |
| Q2 under 28.5 | 33.2% | 32.6% | 38.8% | 0.84× | 3.06 |
| Q2 over 34.5 | 32.5% | 32.6% | 29.9% | 1.09× | 3.06 |
| Q2 under 26.5 | 23.3% | 23.2% | 28.4% | 0.82× | 4.31 |
| Q2 over 36.5 | 22.7% | 23.2% | 21.3% | 1.09× | 4.31 |
| Q2 over 39.5 | 11.7% | 12.7% | 11.6% | 1.09× | 7.89 |
| Q2 under 23.5 | 12.0% | 12.7% | 15.4% | 0.82× | 7.89 |
Q3 result 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Canyon Lopes to win Q3 | 59.8% | 56.8% | 41.8% | 1.36× | 1.76 |
| SMU Mustangs to win Q3 | 34.5% | 33.8% | 53.3% | 0.63× | 2.96 |
| Q3 tied | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 1.07× | 18.97 |
Q3 total 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 over 26.5 | 87.8% | 87.2% | 83.8% | 1.04× | 1.15 |
| Q3 under 42.5 | 87.3% | 87.2% | 87.8% | 0.99× | 1.15 |
| Q3 over 29.5 | 76.7% | 77.3% | 71.8% | 1.08× | 1.29 |
| Q3 under 39.5 | 76.1% | 77.3% | 77.9% | 0.99× | 1.29 |
| Q3 over 31.5 | 67.0% | 67.8% | 61.6% | 1.10× | 1.48 |
| Q3 under 37.5 | 66.4% | 67.8% | 69.7% | 0.97× | 1.48 |
| Q3 over 33.5 | 56.1% | 58.4% | 50.9% | 1.15× | 1.71 |
| Q3 under 35.5 | 55.4% | 58.4% | 59.7% | 0.98× | 1.71 |
| Q3 over 34.5 | 50.4% | 52.3% | 45.4% | 1.15× | 1.91 |
| Q3 under 34.5 | 49.6% | 47.7% | 54.6% | 0.87× | 2.10 |
| Q3 over 35.5 | 44.6% | 41.6% | 40.3% | 1.03× | 2.40 |
| Q3 under 33.5 | 43.9% | 41.6% | 49.1% | 0.85× | 2.40 |
| Q3 over 37.5 | 33.6% | 32.2% | 30.3% | 1.06× | 3.10 |
| Q3 under 31.5 | 33.0% | 32.2% | 38.4% | 0.84× | 3.10 |
| Q3 over 39.5 | 23.9% | 22.7% | 22.1% | 1.03× | 4.40 |
| Q3 under 29.5 | 23.3% | 22.7% | 28.2% | 0.81× | 4.40 |
| Q3 over 42.5 | 12.7% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 1.05× | 7.83 |
| Q3 under 26.5 | 12.2% | 12.8% | 16.2% | 0.79× | 7.83 |
Q4 result 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Canyon Lopes to win Q4 | 59.6% | 52.1% | 41.5% | 1.25× | 1.92 |
| SMU Mustangs to win Q4 | 34.8% | 37.4% | 52.8% | 0.71× | 2.67 |
| Q4 tied | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 1.02× | 17.26 |
Q4 total 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 over 26.5 | 86.6% | 85.6% | 82.6% | 1.04× | 1.17 |
| Q4 under 42.5 | 85.7% | 85.6% | 86.2% | 0.99× | 1.17 |
| Q4 over 29.5 | 75.8% | 76.9% | 70.8% | 1.09× | 1.30 |
| Q4 under 39.5 | 74.6% | 71.5% | 77.0% | 0.93× | 1.40 |
| Q4 over 31.5 | 66.5% | 67.4% | 61.1% | 1.10× | 1.48 |
| Q4 under 37.5 | 65.2% | 67.4% | 68.8% | 0.98× | 1.48 |
| Q4 over 33.5 | 56.1% | 58.4% | 50.4% | 1.16× | 1.71 |
| Q4 under 35.5 | 54.7% | 52.5% | 59.4% | 0.88× | 1.91 |
| Q4 over 34.5 | 50.7% | 52.5% | 45.6% | 1.15× | 1.91 |
| Q4 under 34.5 | 49.3% | 47.5% | 54.4% | 0.87× | 2.11 |
| Q4 over 35.5 | 45.3% | 47.5% | 40.6% | 1.17× | 2.11 |
| Q4 under 33.5 | 43.9% | 41.6% | 49.6% | 0.84× | 2.40 |
| Q4 over 37.5 | 34.8% | 32.6% | 31.2% | 1.04× | 3.07 |
| Q4 under 31.5 | 33.5% | 32.6% | 38.9% | 0.84× | 3.07 |
| Q4 over 39.5 | 25.4% | 28.5% | 23.0% | 1.24× | 3.51 |
| Q4 under 29.5 | 24.2% | 23.1% | 29.2% | 0.79× | 4.33 |
| Q4 over 42.5 | 14.3% | 14.4% | 13.8% | 1.04× | 6.95 |
| Q4 under 26.5 | 13.4% | 14.4% | 17.4% | 0.83× | 6.95 |
Team total 44
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMU Mustangs under 72.5 | 86.6% | 83.9% | 65.7% | 1.28× | 1.19 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes under 80.5 | 86.4% | 83.9% | 91.0% | 0.92× | 1.19 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes over 60.5 | 85.5% | 83.9% | 55.6% | 1.51× | 1.19 |
| SMU Mustangs over 52.5 | 84.4% | 80.7% | 87.7% | 0.92× | 1.24 |
| SMU Mustangs under 69.5 | 78.7% | 75.1% | 57.4% | 1.31× | 1.33 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes under 77.5 | 78.0% | 75.1% | 87.2% | 0.86× | 1.33 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes over 63.5 | 76.9% | 75.1% | 46.1% | 1.63× | 1.33 |
| SMU Mustangs over 55.5 | 75.3% | 75.1% | 81.6% | 0.92× | 1.33 |
| SMU Mustangs under 67.5 | 72.1% | 70.7% | 51.3% | 1.38× | 1.41 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes under 75.5 | 71.1% | 70.7% | 84.1% | 0.84× | 1.41 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes over 65.5 | 69.9% | 66.4% | 40.2% | 1.65× | 1.51 |
| SMU Mustangs over 57.5 | 68.1% | 66.4% | 77.2% | 0.86× | 1.51 |
| SMU Mustangs under 65.5 | 64.7% | 61.2% | 44.7% | 1.37× | 1.63 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes under 73.5 | 63.3% | 61.2% | 80.2% | 0.76× | 1.63 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes over 67.5 | 62.0% | 61.2% | 34.4% | 1.78× | 1.63 |
| SMU Mustangs over 59.5 | 60.1% | 61.2% | 72.2% | 0.85× | 1.63 |
| SMU Mustangs under 63.5 | 56.6% | 57.1% | 38.5% | 1.48× | 1.75 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes over 69.5 | 53.6% | 52.3% | 28.8% | 1.82× | 1.91 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes under 71.5 | 54.9% | 52.3% | 76.1% | 0.69× | 1.91 |
| SMU Mustangs over 61.5 | 51.8% | 52.3% | 66.9% | 0.78× | 1.91 |
| SMU Mustangs under 62.5 | 52.4% | 52.3% | 35.7% | 1.46× | 1.91 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes under 70.5 | 50.7% | 52.3% | 73.7% | 0.71× | 1.91 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes over 70.5 | 49.3% | 47.7% | 26.3% | 1.81× | 2.09 |
| SMU Mustangs under 61.5 | 48.2% | 47.7% | 33.1% | 1.44× | 2.09 |
| SMU Mustangs over 62.5 | 47.6% | 47.7% | 64.3% | 0.74× | 2.09 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes under 69.5 | 46.4% | 47.7% | 71.2% | 0.67× | 2.09 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes over 71.5 | 45.1% | 47.7% | 23.9% | 1.99× | 2.09 |
| SMU Mustangs over 63.5 | 43.4% | 42.9% | 61.5% | 0.70× | 2.33 |
| SMU Mustangs under 59.5 | 39.9% | 38.8% | 27.8% | 1.39× | 2.58 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes under 67.5 | 38.0% | 38.8% | 65.6% | 0.59× | 2.58 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes over 73.5 | 36.7% | 38.8% | 19.8% | 1.96× | 2.58 |
| SMU Mustangs over 65.5 | 35.3% | 38.8% | 55.3% | 0.70× | 2.58 |
| SMU Mustangs under 57.5 | 31.9% | 33.6% | 22.8% | 1.47× | 2.98 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes under 65.5 | 30.1% | 33.6% | 59.8% | 0.56× | 2.98 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes over 75.5 | 28.9% | 29.3% | 15.9% | 1.84× | 3.42 |
| SMU Mustangs over 67.5 | 27.9% | 29.3% | 48.7% | 0.60× | 3.42 |
| SMU Mustangs under 55.5 | 24.7% | 24.9% | 18.5% | 1.35× | 4.02 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes under 63.5 | 23.1% | 24.9% | 53.9% | 0.46× | 4.02 |
| SMU Mustangs over 69.5 | 21.3% | 24.9% | 42.6% | 0.58× | 4.02 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes over 77.5 | 22.0% | 24.9% | 12.8% | 1.94× | 4.02 |
| SMU Mustangs under 52.5 | 15.6% | 19.3% | 12.3% | 1.56× | 5.18 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes under 60.5 | 14.5% | 16.1% | 44.4% | 0.36× | 6.21 |
| SMU Mustangs over 72.5 | 13.4% | 16.1% | 34.3% | 0.47× | 6.21 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes over 80.5 | 13.6% | 16.1% | 9.0% | 1.79× | 6.21 |
Total points 30
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 112.5 points | 91.1% | 88.8% | 83.6% | 1.06× | 1.13 |
| Under 152.5 points | 91.1% | 88.8% | 88.1% | 1.01× | 1.13 |
| Under 147.5 points | 84.5% | 80.6% | 82.3% | 0.98× | 1.24 |
| Over 117.5 points | 84.1% | 80.6% | 75.3% | 1.07× | 1.24 |
| Under 142.5 points | 75.2% | 75.6% | 75.1% | 1.01× | 1.32 |
| Over 122.5 points | 74.5% | 70.8% | 65.6% | 1.08× | 1.41 |
| Under 139.5 points | 68.5% | 65.9% | 69.9% | 0.94× | 1.52 |
| Over 125.5 points | 67.5% | 65.9% | 59.5% | 1.11× | 1.52 |
| Under 137.5 points | 63.7% | 61.5% | 66.2% | 0.93× | 1.63 |
| Over 127.5 points | 62.5% | 61.5% | 55.1% | 1.12× | 1.63 |
| Under 135.5 points | 58.6% | 56.5% | 62.4% | 0.91× | 1.77 |
| Over 129.5 points | 57.3% | 56.5% | 50.5% | 1.12× | 1.77 |
| Under 133.5 points | 53.3% | 52.3% | 58.0% | 0.90× | 1.91 |
| Over 131.5 points | 52.0% | 52.3% | 46.1% | 1.14× | 1.91 |
| Under 132.5 points | 50.6% | 52.3% | 56.0% | 0.94× | 1.91 |
| Over 132.5 points | 49.4% | 47.7% | 44.0% | 1.08× | 2.10 |
| Under 131.5 points | 48.0% | 47.7% | 53.9% | 0.88× | 2.10 |
| Over 133.5 points | 46.7% | 47.7% | 42.0% | 1.14× | 2.10 |
| Under 129.5 points | 42.7% | 43.5% | 49.5% | 0.88× | 2.30 |
| Over 135.5 points | 41.4% | 43.5% | 37.6% | 1.16× | 2.30 |
| Under 127.5 points | 37.5% | 38.5% | 44.9% | 0.86× | 2.60 |
| Over 137.5 points | 36.3% | 38.5% | 33.8% | 1.14× | 2.60 |
| Under 125.5 points | 32.5% | 34.1% | 40.5% | 0.84× | 2.93 |
| Over 139.5 points | 31.5% | 34.1% | 30.1% | 1.13× | 2.93 |
| Under 122.5 points | 25.5% | 29.2% | 34.4% | 0.85× | 3.43 |
| Over 142.5 points | 24.8% | 24.4% | 24.9% | 0.98× | 4.10 |
| Under 117.5 points | 15.9% | 19.4% | 24.7% | 0.79× | 5.15 |
| Over 147.5 points | 15.5% | 19.4% | 17.7% | 1.10× | 5.15 |
| Under 112.5 points | 8.9% | 11.2% | 16.4% | 0.68× | 8.96 |
| Over 152.5 points | 8.9% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 0.94× | 8.96 |
Win both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Canyon Lopes to win both halves | 40.8% | 40.6% | 20.4% | 1.99× | 2.46 |
| SMU Mustangs to win both halves | 6.9% | 8.8% | 36.0% | 0.25× | 11.32 |
Winning margin 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Canyon Lopes by 6-10 | 18.2% | 16.8% | 10.3% | 1.63× | 5.97 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes by 1-5 | 16.4% | 16.8% | 10.2% | 1.65× | 5.97 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes by 11-15 | 16.6% | 16.8% | 7.6% | 2.20× | 5.97 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes by 16-20 | 12.4% | 12.3% | 4.8% | 2.60× | 8.11 |
| SMU Mustangs by 1-5 | 11.2% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 1.21× | 8.11 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes by 21-25 | 7.6% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 2.79× | 13.40 |
| SMU Mustangs by 6-10 | 6.6% | 7.5% | 12.9% | 0.58× | 13.40 |
| Grand Canyon Lopes by 26+ | 5.9% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 1.62× | 13.40 |
| SMU Mustangs by 11-15 | 3.2% | 2.0% | 10.8% | 0.19× | 49.30 |
| SMU Mustangs by 16-20 | 1.3% | 2.0% | 8.0% | 0.25× | 49.32 |
| SMU Mustangs by 21-25 | 0.4% | 2.0% | 5.4% | 0.38× | 49.32 |
| SMU Mustangs by 26+ | 0.1% | 2.0% | 12.6% | 0.16× | 49.33 |