SMU Mustangs v Nicholls Colonels — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 15 November 2026 · NCAAW · 2027

NCAAW results-only Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 03:45 UTC

SMU Mustangs

05:00 UTC

Nicholls Colonels

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

SMU Mustangs win

55.6%

Draw

0.0%

Nicholls Colonels win

44.4%

56044

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
nba-normal	56044	64.04–62.51	64-62 0%	51%	0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SMU Mustangs to score 100+	0.0%	0.4%	1.8%	0.20×	283.35
SMU Mustangs to score 110+	0.0%	0.4%	0.6%	0.64×	283.36
SMU Mustangs to score 120+	0.0%	0.4%	0.1%	2.91×	283.36
SMU Mustangs to score 130+	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	7.58×	283.36
Nicholls Colonels to score 100+	0.0%	0.4%	0.5%	0.72×	283.36
Nicholls Colonels to score 110+	0.0%	0.4%	0.1%	4.74×	283.36
Nicholls Colonels to score 120+	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	18.95×	283.36
Nicholls Colonels to score 130+	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	37.89×	283.36
Both sides to score 100+	0.0%	0.4%	0.1%	6.32×	283.36

H1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SMU Mustangs to win H1	51.1%	51.8%	56.4%	0.92×	1.93
Nicholls Colonels to win H1	44.4%	42.7%	39.9%	1.07×	2.34
H1 tied	4.5%	3.9%	3.7%	1.05×	25.86

H1 total 22

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H1 over 48.5	88.5%	87.7%	88.8%	0.99×	1.14
H1 under 72.5	88.1%	87.7%	83.6%	1.05×	1.14
H1 over 52.5	78.8%	77.4%	79.6%	0.97×	1.29
H1 under 68.5	78.4%	77.4%	73.5%	1.05×	1.29
H1 over 55.5	69.2%	67.4%	71.0%	0.95×	1.48
H1 under 65.5	68.8%	67.4%	63.9%	1.06×	1.48
H1 over 57.5	61.9%	62.7%	64.8%	0.97×	1.59
H1 under 63.5	61.5%	62.7%	57.1%	1.10×	1.59
H1 over 59.5	54.1%	52.6%	57.8%	0.91×	1.90
H1 under 61.5	53.8%	52.6%	49.8%	1.06×	1.90
H1 over 60.5	50.2%	52.6%	53.9%	0.98×	1.90
H1 under 60.5	49.8%	47.4%	46.1%	1.03×	2.11
H1 under 59.5	45.9%	47.4%	42.2%	1.12×	2.11
H1 over 61.5	46.2%	47.4%	50.2%	0.94×	2.11
H1 under 57.5	38.1%	37.3%	35.2%	1.06×	2.68
H1 over 63.5	38.5%	37.3%	42.9%	0.87×	2.68
H1 over 65.5	31.2%	32.6%	36.1%	0.90×	3.07
H1 under 55.5	30.8%	32.6%	29.0%	1.12×	3.07
H1 under 52.5	21.2%	22.6%	20.4%	1.11×	4.43
H1 over 68.5	21.6%	22.6%	26.5%	0.85×	4.43
H1 over 72.5	11.9%	12.3%	16.4%	0.75×	8.14
H1 under 48.5	11.5%	12.3%	11.2%	1.10×	8.14

H2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SMU Mustangs to win H2	51.4%	51.2%	56.0%	0.91×	1.95
Nicholls Colonels to win H2	44.3%	43.6%	40.6%	1.07×	2.30
H2 tied	4.3%	3.9%	3.4%	1.16×	25.35

H2 total 22

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
H2 under 78.5	87.4%	85.2%	80.1%	1.06×	1.17
H2 over 54.5	86.9%	85.2%	88.0%	0.97×	1.17
H2 under 74.5	78.0%	75.8%	69.9%	1.08×	1.32
H2 over 58.5	77.0%	75.8%	79.6%	0.95×	1.32
H2 under 71.5	68.8%	66.4%	61.1%	1.09×	1.51
H2 over 61.5	67.5%	66.4%	71.3%	0.93×	1.51
H2 under 69.5	61.9%	61.6%	54.8%	1.12×	1.62
H2 over 63.5	60.4%	61.6%	65.3%	0.94×	1.62
H2 under 67.5	54.5%	52.4%	47.9%	1.09×	1.91
H2 over 65.5	53.0%	52.4%	58.8%	0.89×	1.91
H2 under 66.5	50.8%	52.4%	44.6%	1.17×	1.91
H2 over 66.5	49.2%	47.6%	55.4%	0.86×	2.10
H2 under 65.5	47.0%	47.6%	41.2%	1.16×	2.10
H2 over 67.5	45.5%	47.6%	52.1%	0.91×	2.10
H2 under 63.5	39.6%	38.4%	34.7%	1.11×	2.61
H2 over 69.5	38.1%	38.4%	45.2%	0.85×	2.61
H2 under 61.5	32.5%	33.6%	28.7%	1.17×	2.97
H2 over 71.5	31.2%	33.6%	38.9%	0.87×	2.97
H2 under 58.5	23.0%	24.2%	20.4%	1.19×	4.13
H2 over 74.5	22.0%	24.2%	30.1%	0.81×	4.13
H2 under 54.5	13.1%	14.8%	12.0%	1.23×	6.76
H2 over 78.5	12.6%	14.8%	19.9%	0.74×	6.76

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SMU Mustangs leading at half time	51.1%	51.9%	56.4%	0.92×	1.93
Nicholls Colonels leading at half time	44.4%	42.9%	39.9%	1.07×	2.33
Level at half time	4.5%	3.8%	3.7%	1.03×	26.40

Handicap 60

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SMU Mustangs +18.5	96.3%	97.4%	91.1%	1.07×	1.03
Nicholls Colonels +20.5	95.5%	97.4%	82.0%	1.19×	1.03
SMU Mustangs +20.5	97.6%	97.4%	92.7%	1.05×	1.03
SMU Mustangs +16.5	94.6%	91.1%	89.1%	1.02×	1.10
SMU Mustangs +14.5	92.3%	91.1%	86.7%	1.05×	1.10
Nicholls Colonels +18.5	93.5%	91.1%	79.3%	1.15×	1.10
Nicholls Colonels +16.5	90.8%	91.1%	75.7%	1.20×	1.10
SMU Mustangs +12.5	89.3%	85.9%	83.8%	1.03×	1.16
Nicholls Colonels +14.5	87.4%	85.9%	72.1%	1.19×	1.16
SMU Mustangs +10.5	85.5%	85.9%	80.4%	1.07×	1.16
SMU Mustangs +9.5	83.3%	81.1%	78.7%	1.03×	1.23
Nicholls Colonels +12.5	83.3%	81.1%	67.9%	1.20×	1.23
SMU Mustangs +8.5	80.9%	81.1%	76.5%	1.06×	1.23
SMU Mustangs +7.5	78.3%	76.5%	74.5%	1.03×	1.31
Nicholls Colonels +10.5	78.3%	76.5%	63.2%	1.21×	1.31
SMU Mustangs +6.5	75.5%	76.5%	72.3%	1.06×	1.31
Nicholls Colonels +9.5	75.5%	76.5%	60.7%	1.26×	1.31
SMU Mustangs +5.5	72.6%	71.6%	70.1%	1.02×	1.40
Nicholls Colonels +8.5	72.5%	71.6%	58.0%	1.23×	1.40
SMU Mustangs +4.5	69.4%	66.7%	67.8%	0.98×	1.50
Nicholls Colonels +7.5	69.4%	66.7%	55.2%	1.21×	1.50
SMU Mustangs +3.5	66.2%	66.7%	65.7%	1.02×	1.50
Nicholls Colonels +6.5	66.1%	66.7%	52.4%	1.27×	1.50
SMU Mustangs +2.5	62.7%	61.9%	63.3%	0.98×	1.62
Nicholls Colonels +5.5	62.7%	61.9%	50.3%	1.23×	1.62
SMU Mustangs +1.5	59.2%	57.1%	61.2%	0.93×	1.75
Nicholls Colonels +4.5	59.1%	57.1%	47.8%	1.19×	1.75
Nicholls Colonels +3.5	55.5%	57.1%	45.8%	1.25×	1.75
SMU Mustangs −1.5	51.9%	52.4%	58.7%	0.89×	1.91
Nicholls Colonels +2.5	51.8%	52.4%	43.3%	1.21×	1.91
Nicholls Colonels +1.5	48.1%	47.6%	41.3%	1.15×	2.10
SMU Mustangs −2.5	48.2%	47.6%	56.7%	0.84×	2.10
SMU Mustangs −3.5	44.5%	42.9%	54.2%	0.79×	2.33
Nicholls Colonels −1.5	40.8%	42.9%	38.8%	1.11×	2.33
SMU Mustangs −4.5	40.9%	42.9%	52.2%	0.82×	2.33
Nicholls Colonels −2.5	37.3%	38.1%	36.7%	1.04×	2.63
SMU Mustangs −5.5	37.3%	38.1%	49.7%	0.77×	2.63
SMU Mustangs −6.5	33.9%	33.3%	47.6%	0.70×	3.01
Nicholls Colonels −3.5	33.8%	33.3%	34.3%	0.97×	3.01
Nicholls Colonels −4.5	30.6%	33.3%	32.2%	1.03×	3.01
SMU Mustangs −7.5	30.6%	33.3%	44.8%	0.74×	3.01
Nicholls Colonels −5.5	27.4%	28.4%	29.9%	0.95×	3.53
SMU Mustangs −8.5	27.5%	28.4%	42.0%	0.68×	3.53
Nicholls Colonels −6.5	24.5%	23.5%	27.7%	0.85×	4.25
SMU Mustangs −9.5	24.5%	23.5%	39.3%	0.60×	4.25
Nicholls Colonels −7.5	21.7%	23.5%	25.5%	0.92×	4.25
SMU Mustangs −10.5	21.7%	23.5%	36.8%	0.64×	4.25
Nicholls Colonels −8.5	19.1%	18.9%	23.5%	0.80×	5.29
Nicholls Colonels −9.5	16.7%	18.9%	21.3%	0.89×	5.29
SMU Mustangs −12.5	16.7%	18.9%	32.1%	0.59×	5.29
Nicholls Colonels −10.5	14.5%	14.1%	19.6%	0.72×	7.09
SMU Mustangs −14.5	12.6%	14.1%	27.9%	0.51×	7.09
Nicholls Colonels −12.5	10.7%	14.1%	16.2%	0.87×	7.09
SMU Mustangs −16.5	9.2%	8.9%	24.3%	0.37×	11.25
Nicholls Colonels −14.5	7.7%	8.9%	13.3%	0.67×	11.25
SMU Mustangs −18.5	6.5%	8.9%	20.7%	0.43×	11.25
Nicholls Colonels −16.5	5.4%	8.9%	10.9%	0.82×	11.25
Nicholls Colonels −18.5	3.7%	2.6%	8.9%	0.29×	38.73
SMU Mustangs −20.5	4.5%	2.6%	18.0%	0.14×	38.72
Nicholls Colonels −20.5	2.4%	2.6%	7.3%	0.36×	38.73

Highest scoring half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	71.5%	67.1%	66.7%	1.01×	1.49
1st half highest scoring	28.5%	32.9%	33.3%	0.99×	3.04

Highest scoring quarter 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q4 highest scoring	34.2%	31.9%	31.2%	1.02×	3.14
Q3 highest scoring	32.4%	31.9%	31.3%	1.02×	3.14
Q1 highest scoring	17.4%	18.3%	19.6%	0.94×	5.46
Q2 highest scoring	15.9%	18.3%	17.9%	1.02×	5.46

HT/FT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SMU Mustangs at HT / SMU Mustangs at FT	39.0%	37.8%	48.3%	0.78×	2.65
Nicholls Colonels at HT / Nicholls Colonels at FT	30.3%	33.2%	30.1%	1.10×	3.01
Nicholls Colonels at HT / SMU Mustangs at FT	14.1%	12.2%	9.8%	1.25×	8.17
SMU Mustangs at HT / Nicholls Colonels at FT	12.1%	12.2%	8.2%	1.49×	8.18
Level at HT / SMU Mustangs at FT	2.4%	2.1%	1.9%	1.09×	47.75
Level at HT / Nicholls Colonels at FT	2.0%	2.1%	1.8%	1.20×	47.76

Moneyline 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SMU Mustangs to win	55.6%	55.2%	59.9%	0.92×	1.81
Nicholls Colonels to win	44.4%	44.8%	40.1%	1.12×	2.23

Odd/Even 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Total points odd	51.8%	50.5%	51.5%	0.98×	1.98
SMU Mustangs even	50.0%	50.5%	49.4%	1.02×	1.98
Nicholls Colonels even	50.1%	50.5%	50.1%	1.01×	1.98
SMU Mustangs odd	50.0%	49.5%	50.6%	0.98×	2.02
Nicholls Colonels odd	50.0%	49.5%	49.9%	0.99×	2.02
Total points even	48.2%	49.5%	48.5%	1.02×	2.02

Overtime 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No overtime	93.9%	94.0%	95.6%	0.98×	1.06
Match to go to overtime	6.1%	6.0%	4.4%	1.35×	16.66

Q1 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SMU Mustangs to win Q1	49.2%	47.6%	54.7%	0.87×	2.10
Nicholls Colonels to win Q1	44.6%	43.0%	40.4%	1.06×	2.33
Q1 tied	6.1%	5.5%	4.9%	1.11×	18.31

Q1 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q1 over 22.5	88.1%	87.4%	88.8%	0.98×	1.14
Q1 under 38.5	88.3%	87.4%	84.8%	1.03×	1.14
Q1 under 35.5	77.3%	76.9%	73.2%	1.05×	1.30
Q1 over 25.5	76.8%	76.9%	77.6%	0.99×	1.30
Q1 under 33.5	67.5%	67.6%	64.0%	1.06×	1.48
Q1 over 27.5	66.9%	67.6%	67.7%	1.00×	1.48
Q1 under 31.5	56.2%	58.6%	54.0%	1.09×	1.71
Q1 over 29.5	55.5%	58.6%	56.9%	1.03×	1.71
Q1 under 30.5	50.3%	52.7%	48.8%	1.08×	1.90
Q1 over 30.5	49.7%	47.3%	51.2%	0.92×	2.11
Q1 under 29.5	44.5%	41.4%	43.1%	0.96×	2.42
Q1 over 31.5	43.8%	41.4%	46.0%	0.90×	2.42
Q1 under 27.5	33.1%	32.4%	32.3%	1.00×	3.08
Q1 over 33.5	32.5%	32.4%	36.0%	0.90×	3.08
Q1 under 25.5	23.2%	23.1%	22.4%	1.03×	4.33
Q1 over 35.5	22.7%	23.1%	26.8%	0.86×	4.33
Q1 under 22.5	11.9%	12.6%	11.2%	1.12×	7.95
Q1 over 38.5	11.7%	12.6%	15.2%	0.83×	7.95

Q2 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SMU Mustangs to win Q2	49.2%	47.1%	52.9%	0.89×	2.13
Nicholls Colonels to win Q2	44.8%	43.9%	41.5%	1.06×	2.28
Q2 tied	6.0%	6.1%	5.7%	1.07×	16.49

Q2 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q2 under 38.5	89.2%	87.3%	85.6%	1.02×	1.15
Q2 over 22.5	87.1%	87.3%	87.4%	1.00×	1.15
Q2 under 35.5	78.7%	76.8%	74.6%	1.03×	1.30
Q2 over 25.5	75.4%	76.8%	76.2%	1.01×	1.30
Q2 under 33.5	69.1%	67.4%	65.6%	1.03×	1.48
Q2 over 27.5	65.1%	67.4%	66.7%	1.01×	1.49
Q2 under 31.5	58.1%	58.2%	55.7%	1.04×	1.72
Q2 over 29.5	53.7%	52.7%	55.8%	0.94×	1.90
Q2 under 30.5	52.2%	52.7%	50.1%	1.05×	1.90
Q2 over 30.5	47.8%	47.3%	49.9%	0.95×	2.11
Q2 under 29.5	46.3%	47.3%	44.2%	1.07×	2.11
Q2 over 31.5	41.9%	41.8%	44.3%	0.94×	2.39
Q2 under 27.5	34.9%	32.6%	33.3%	0.98×	3.06
Q2 over 33.5	30.9%	32.6%	34.4%	0.95×	3.06
Q2 under 25.5	24.6%	23.2%	23.8%	0.98×	4.31
Q2 over 35.5	21.3%	23.2%	25.4%	0.91×	4.31
Q2 under 22.5	12.9%	12.7%	12.6%	1.01×	7.89
Q2 over 38.5	10.8%	12.7%	14.4%	0.88×	7.90

Q3 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SMU Mustangs to win Q3	49.5%	47.6%	53.3%	0.89×	2.10
Nicholls Colonels to win Q3	44.6%	42.3%	41.8%	1.01×	2.37
Q3 tied	5.9%	5.3%	4.9%	1.07×	18.96

Q3 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q3 under 41.5	88.6%	87.2%	85.1%	1.03×	1.15
Q3 over 25.5	86.5%	87.2%	86.9%	1.00×	1.15
Q3 under 38.5	78.0%	77.3%	73.9%	1.05×	1.29
Q3 over 28.5	74.8%	71.8%	76.4%	0.94×	1.39
Q3 under 36.5	68.6%	67.8%	64.6%	1.05×	1.48
Q3 over 30.5	64.8%	62.0%	66.8%	0.93×	1.61
Q3 under 34.5	57.8%	58.4%	54.6%	1.07×	1.71
Q3 over 32.5	53.6%	52.3%	56.1%	0.93×	1.91
Q3 under 33.5	52.1%	52.3%	49.1%	1.07×	1.91
Q3 over 33.5	47.9%	47.7%	50.9%	0.94×	2.10
Q3 under 32.5	46.4%	47.7%	43.9%	1.09×	2.10
Q3 over 34.5	42.2%	41.6%	45.4%	0.92×	2.40
Q3 under 30.5	35.2%	38.0%	33.2%	1.15×	2.63
Q3 over 36.5	31.4%	32.2%	35.4%	0.91×	3.11
Q3 under 28.5	25.2%	28.2%	23.6%	1.19×	3.55
Q3 over 38.5	22.0%	22.7%	26.1%	0.87×	4.40
Q3 under 25.5	13.5%	12.8%	13.1%	0.98×	7.83
Q3 over 41.5	11.4%	12.8%	14.9%	0.86×	7.83

Q4 result 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SMU Mustangs to win Q4	49.5%	47.6%	52.8%	0.90×	2.10
Nicholls Colonels to win Q4	44.7%	43.1%	41.5%	1.04×	2.32
Q4 tied	5.8%	5.8%	5.7%	1.02×	17.25

Q4 total 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Q4 under 41.5	87.0%	85.6%	83.6%	1.02×	1.17
Q4 over 25.5	85.3%	85.6%	86.1%	0.99×	1.17
Q4 under 38.5	76.5%	76.9%	73.1%	1.05×	1.30
Q4 over 28.5	73.9%	71.5%	75.1%	0.95×	1.40
Q4 under 36.5	67.3%	67.4%	64.3%	1.05×	1.48
Q4 over 30.5	64.3%	61.4%	66.3%	0.93×	1.63
Q4 under 34.5	57.0%	58.4%	54.4%	1.07×	1.71
Q4 over 32.5	53.8%	52.5%	55.4%	0.95×	1.91
Q4 under 33.5	51.7%	52.5%	49.6%	1.06×	1.91
Q4 over 33.5	48.3%	47.5%	50.4%	0.94×	2.11
Q4 under 32.5	46.2%	47.5%	44.6%	1.07×	2.11
Q4 over 34.5	43.0%	41.6%	45.6%	0.91×	2.40
Q4 under 30.5	35.7%	38.6%	33.7%	1.14×	2.59
Q4 over 36.5	32.7%	32.6%	35.7%	0.91×	3.07
Q4 under 28.5	26.1%	28.5%	24.9%	1.14×	3.51
Q4 over 38.5	23.5%	23.1%	26.9%	0.86×	4.33
Q4 under 25.5	14.7%	14.4%	13.9%	1.04×	6.95
Q4 over 41.5	13.0%	14.4%	16.4%	0.88×	6.95

Team total 44

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SMU Mustangs under 74.5	86.0%	83.9%	70.7%	1.19×	1.19
Nicholls Colonels over 52.5	86.4%	83.9%	78.5%	1.07×	1.19
Nicholls Colonels under 72.5	85.6%	83.9%	78.2%	1.07×	1.19
SMU Mustangs over 54.5	84.6%	80.7%	83.8%	0.96×	1.24
SMU Mustangs under 71.5	77.8%	75.1%	63.0%	1.19×	1.33
Nicholls Colonels over 55.5	77.9%	75.1%	70.8%	1.06×	1.33
Nicholls Colonels under 69.5	77.1%	75.1%	71.2%	1.05×	1.33
SMU Mustangs over 57.5	75.8%	75.1%	77.2%	0.97×	1.33
SMU Mustangs under 69.5	71.1%	70.7%	57.4%	1.23×	1.41
Nicholls Colonels over 57.5	70.9%	70.7%	65.1%	1.09×	1.41
Nicholls Colonels under 67.5	70.1%	70.7%	65.6%	1.08×	1.41
SMU Mustangs over 59.5	68.8%	66.4%	72.2%	0.92×	1.51
SMU Mustangs under 67.5	63.6%	61.2%	51.3%	1.19×	1.63
Nicholls Colonels over 59.5	63.1%	61.2%	58.8%	1.04×	1.63
Nicholls Colonels under 65.5	62.3%	61.2%	59.8%	1.02×	1.63
SMU Mustangs over 61.5	61.1%	61.2%	66.9%	0.91×	1.63
SMU Mustangs under 65.5	55.5%	57.1%	44.7%	1.28×	1.75
Nicholls Colonels over 61.5	54.7%	52.3%	52.1%	1.00×	1.91
Nicholls Colonels under 63.5	53.9%	52.3%	53.9%	0.97×	1.91
SMU Mustangs over 63.5	52.9%	52.3%	61.5%	0.85×	1.91
SMU Mustangs under 64.5	51.3%	52.3%	41.6%	1.26×	1.91
Nicholls Colonels over 62.5	50.4%	52.3%	49.0%	1.07×	1.91
Nicholls Colonels under 62.5	49.6%	47.7%	51.0%	0.94×	2.09
SMU Mustangs under 63.5	47.1%	47.7%	38.5%	1.24×	2.09
SMU Mustangs over 64.5	48.7%	47.7%	58.4%	0.82×	2.09
Nicholls Colonels under 61.5	45.3%	47.7%	47.9%	1.00×	2.09
Nicholls Colonels over 63.5	46.1%	47.7%	46.1%	1.04×	2.09
SMU Mustangs over 65.5	44.5%	42.9%	55.3%	0.78×	2.33
SMU Mustangs under 61.5	38.9%	38.8%	33.1%	1.17×	2.58
SMU Mustangs over 67.5	36.4%	38.8%	48.7%	0.80×	2.58
Nicholls Colonels under 59.5	36.9%	38.8%	41.2%	0.94×	2.58
Nicholls Colonels over 65.5	37.7%	38.8%	40.2%	0.96×	2.58
SMU Mustangs under 59.5	31.2%	33.6%	27.8%	1.21×	2.98
SMU Mustangs over 69.5	28.9%	29.3%	42.6%	0.69×	3.42
Nicholls Colonels under 57.5	29.1%	29.3%	34.9%	0.84×	3.42
Nicholls Colonels over 67.5	29.9%	29.3%	34.4%	0.85×	3.42
SMU Mustangs under 57.5	24.2%	24.9%	22.8%	1.09×	4.02
Nicholls Colonels over 69.5	22.9%	24.9%	28.8%	0.86×	4.02
SMU Mustangs over 71.5	22.2%	24.9%	37.0%	0.67×	4.02
Nicholls Colonels under 55.5	22.1%	24.9%	29.2%	0.85×	4.02
SMU Mustangs under 54.5	15.4%	19.3%	16.2%	1.19×	5.18
Nicholls Colonels over 72.5	14.4%	16.1%	21.8%	0.74×	6.21
SMU Mustangs over 74.5	14.0%	16.1%	29.3%	0.55×	6.21
Nicholls Colonels under 52.5	13.6%	16.1%	21.5%	0.75×	6.21

Total points 30

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 147.5 points	91.7%	88.8%	82.3%	1.08×	1.13
Over 107.5 points	90.6%	88.8%	90.2%	0.99×	1.13
Under 142.5 points	85.3%	85.0%	75.1%	1.13×	1.18
Over 112.5 points	83.4%	80.6%	83.6%	0.96×	1.24
Under 137.5 points	76.3%	75.6%	66.2%	1.14×	1.32
Over 117.5 points	73.4%	70.8%	75.3%	0.94×	1.41
Under 134.5 points	69.7%	65.9%	60.2%	1.10×	1.52
Over 120.5 points	66.4%	65.9%	69.8%	0.94×	1.52
Under 132.5 points	64.9%	61.5%	56.0%	1.10×	1.63
Over 122.5 points	61.3%	61.5%	65.6%	0.94×	1.63
Under 130.5 points	59.8%	56.5%	51.7%	1.09×	1.77
Over 124.5 points	56.1%	56.5%	61.5%	0.92×	1.77
Under 128.5 points	54.6%	52.3%	47.2%	1.11×	1.91
Under 127.5 points	52.0%	52.3%	44.9%	1.17×	1.91
Over 126.5 points	50.8%	52.3%	57.4%	0.91×	1.91
Under 126.5 points	49.2%	47.7%	42.6%	1.12×	2.10
Over 127.5 points	48.0%	47.7%	55.1%	0.87×	2.10
Over 128.5 points	45.4%	47.7%	52.8%	0.90×	2.10
Under 124.5 points	43.9%	43.5%	38.5%	1.13×	2.30
Over 130.5 points	40.2%	43.5%	48.3%	0.90×	2.30
Under 122.5 points	38.7%	38.5%	34.4%	1.12×	2.60
Over 132.5 points	35.1%	38.5%	44.0%	0.87×	2.60
Under 120.5 points	33.6%	34.1%	30.2%	1.13×	2.93
Over 134.5 points	30.3%	34.1%	39.8%	0.86×	2.93
Under 117.5 points	26.6%	29.2%	24.7%	1.18×	3.43
Over 137.5 points	23.7%	24.4%	33.8%	0.72×	4.10
Under 112.5 points	16.6%	19.4%	16.4%	1.19×	5.15
Over 142.5 points	14.7%	15.0%	24.9%	0.60×	6.68
Under 107.5 points	9.4%	11.2%	9.8%	1.14×	8.96
Over 147.5 points	8.3%	11.2%	17.7%	0.63×	8.96

Win both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SMU Mustangs to win both halves	23.4%	23.1%	36.0%	0.64×	4.34
Nicholls Colonels to win both halves	16.8%	18.9%	20.4%	0.93×	5.30

Winning margin 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
SMU Mustangs by 1-5	18.3%	16.8%	10.2%	1.64×	5.97
Nicholls Colonels by 1-5	17.0%	16.8%	10.2%	1.65×	5.97
SMU Mustangs by 6-10	15.6%	16.8%	12.9%	1.30×	5.97
Nicholls Colonels by 6-10	12.9%	12.3%	10.3%	1.20×	8.11
SMU Mustangs by 11-15	10.9%	12.3%	10.8%	1.14×	8.11
Nicholls Colonels by 11-15	8.0%	7.5%	7.6%	0.98×	13.40
SMU Mustangs by 16-20	6.3%	7.5%	8.0%	0.93×	13.40
Nicholls Colonels by 16-20	4.1%	2.0%	4.8%	0.43×	49.29
SMU Mustangs by 21-25	2.9%	2.0%	5.4%	0.38×	49.30
Nicholls Colonels by 21-25	1.7%	2.0%	2.7%	0.76×	49.31
SMU Mustangs by 26+	1.5%	2.0%	12.6%	0.16×	49.31
Nicholls Colonels by 26+	0.7%	2.0%	4.6%	0.44×	49.32

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