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South Florida Bulls v Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 1 December 2026 · NCAAW · 2027

NCAAW results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
South Florida Bulls win
99.4%
Draw
0.0%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions win
0.6%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 82.05–53.84 82-54 0% 52% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
South Florida Bulls to score 100+ 3.6% 0.4% 1.8% 0.20× 282.66
South Florida Bulls to score 110+ 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.64× 283.31
South Florida Bulls to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 2.91× 283.36
South Florida Bulls to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 7.58× 283.36
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.71× 283.36
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.74× 283.36
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 18.95× 283.36
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 37.89× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 6.32× 283.36
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
South Florida Bulls to win H1 92.6% 93.4% 56.4% 1.66× 1.07
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions to win H1 5.9% 7.1% 39.9% 0.18× 14.16
H1 tied 1.5% 3.9% 3.7% 1.05× 25.88
H1 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 over 53.5 89.1% 87.7% 76.8% 1.14× 1.14
H1 under 77.5 88.5% 87.7% 91.6% 0.96× 1.14
H1 over 57.5 79.3% 77.4% 64.8% 1.19× 1.29
H1 under 73.5 78.9% 77.4% 85.6% 0.90× 1.29
H1 over 60.5 69.5% 67.4% 53.9% 1.25× 1.48
H1 under 70.5 69.2% 67.4% 78.9% 0.85× 1.48
H1 over 62.5 62.0% 62.7% 46.3% 1.35× 1.59
H1 under 68.5 61.8% 62.7% 73.5% 0.85× 1.59
H1 over 64.5 54.1% 52.6% 39.3% 1.34× 1.90
H1 under 66.5 54.0% 52.6% 67.1% 0.78× 1.90
H1 over 65.5 50.1% 52.6% 36.1% 1.46× 1.90
H1 under 65.5 49.9% 47.4% 63.9% 0.74× 2.11
H1 under 64.5 45.9% 47.4% 60.7% 0.78× 2.11
H1 over 66.5 46.0% 47.4% 32.9% 1.44× 2.11
H1 under 62.5 38.0% 37.3% 53.7% 0.69× 2.68
H1 over 68.5 38.2% 37.3% 26.5% 1.41× 2.68
H1 under 60.5 30.5% 32.6% 46.1% 0.71× 3.07
H1 over 70.5 30.8% 32.6% 21.1% 1.55× 3.07
H1 over 73.5 21.1% 22.6% 14.4% 1.57× 4.43
H1 under 57.5 20.7% 22.6% 35.2% 0.64× 4.43
H1 over 77.5 11.5% 12.3% 8.4% 1.47× 8.14
H1 under 53.5 10.9% 12.3% 23.2% 0.53× 8.14
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
South Florida Bulls to win H2 93.8% 89.4% 56.0% 1.60× 1.12
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions to win H2 5.0% 3.9% 40.6% 0.10× 25.35
H2 tied 1.2% 3.9% 3.4% 1.16× 25.38
H2 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 84.5 88.9% 85.2% 90.3% 0.94× 1.17
H2 over 60.5 86.5% 85.2% 74.5% 1.14× 1.17
H2 under 80.5 80.0% 75.8% 84.0% 0.90× 1.32
H2 over 64.5 76.0% 75.8% 62.1% 1.22× 1.32
H2 under 77.5 71.0% 72.2% 77.9% 0.93× 1.39
H2 over 67.5 66.0% 66.4% 52.1% 1.27× 1.51
H2 under 75.5 64.2% 61.6% 73.0% 0.84× 1.62
H2 over 69.5 58.6% 57.3% 45.2% 1.27× 1.74
H2 under 73.5 56.8% 57.3% 67.1% 0.86× 1.74
H2 under 72.5 52.9% 52.4% 64.1% 0.82× 1.91
H2 over 71.5 50.9% 52.4% 38.9% 1.35× 1.91
H2 under 71.5 49.1% 47.6% 61.1% 0.78× 2.10
H2 over 72.5 47.1% 47.6% 36.0% 1.32× 2.10
H2 over 73.5 43.2% 42.7% 32.9% 1.30× 2.34
H2 under 69.5 41.4% 42.7% 54.8% 0.78× 2.34
H2 over 75.5 35.8% 38.4% 27.0% 1.42× 2.61
H2 under 67.5 34.0% 33.6% 47.9% 0.70× 2.97
H2 over 77.5 29.0% 27.8% 22.1% 1.26× 3.59
H2 under 64.5 24.0% 24.2% 37.9% 0.64× 4.13
H2 over 80.5 20.0% 24.2% 16.0% 1.52× 4.13
H2 under 60.5 13.5% 14.8% 25.5% 0.58× 6.76
H2 over 84.5 11.1% 14.8% 9.7% 1.52× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
South Florida Bulls leading at half time 92.6% 94.0% 56.4% 1.67× 1.06
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions leading at half time 5.9% 6.6% 39.9% 0.16× 15.24
Level at half time 1.5% 3.8% 3.7% 1.03× 26.44
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
South Florida Bulls +2.5 99.7% 97.4% 63.3% 1.54× 1.03
South Florida Bulls +3.5 99.7% 97.4% 65.7% 1.48× 1.03
South Florida Bulls +4.5 99.8% 97.4% 67.8% 1.44× 1.03
South Florida Bulls +5.5 99.9% 97.4% 70.1% 1.39× 1.03
South Florida Bulls +6.5 99.9% 97.4% 72.3% 1.35× 1.03
South Florida Bulls +7.5 99.9% 97.4% 74.5% 1.31× 1.03
South Florida Bulls +8.5 99.9% 97.4% 76.5% 1.27× 1.03
South Florida Bulls +9.5 100.0% 97.4% 78.7% 1.24× 1.03
South Florida Bulls +10.5 100.0% 97.4% 80.4% 1.21× 1.03
South Florida Bulls +12.5 100.0% 97.4% 83.8% 1.16× 1.03
South Florida Bulls +14.5 100.0% 97.4% 86.7% 1.12× 1.03
South Florida Bulls +16.5 100.0% 97.4% 89.1% 1.09× 1.03
South Florida Bulls +18.5 100.0% 97.4% 91.1% 1.07× 1.03
South Florida Bulls +20.5 100.0% 97.4% 92.7% 1.05× 1.03
South Florida Bulls +1.5 99.6% 97.4% 61.2% 1.59× 1.03
South Florida Bulls −2.5 99.0% 97.4% 56.7% 1.72× 1.03
South Florida Bulls −3.5 98.7% 97.4% 54.2% 1.80× 1.03
South Florida Bulls −4.5 98.3% 97.4% 52.2% 1.87× 1.03
South Florida Bulls −5.5 97.8% 97.4% 49.7% 1.96× 1.03
South Florida Bulls −6.5 97.3% 97.4% 47.6% 2.05× 1.03
South Florida Bulls −7.5 96.7% 97.4% 44.8% 2.18× 1.03
South Florida Bulls −8.5 95.9% 97.4% 42.0% 2.32× 1.03
South Florida Bulls −1.5 99.2% 97.4% 58.7% 1.66× 1.03
South Florida Bulls −9.5 95.0% 97.4% 39.3% 2.48× 1.03
South Florida Bulls −10.5 94.0% 91.1% 36.8% 2.48× 1.10
South Florida Bulls −12.5 91.5% 91.1% 32.1% 2.84× 1.10
South Florida Bulls −14.5 88.3% 85.9% 27.9% 3.08× 1.16
South Florida Bulls −16.5 84.3% 81.1% 24.3% 3.34× 1.23
South Florida Bulls −18.5 79.5% 76.5% 20.7% 3.69× 1.31
South Florida Bulls −20.5 74.0% 71.6% 18.0% 3.98× 1.40
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions +20.5 26.0% 28.4% 82.0% 0.35× 3.53
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions +18.5 20.5% 23.5% 79.3% 0.30× 4.25
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions +16.5 15.7% 18.9% 75.7% 0.25× 5.30
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions +14.5 11.7% 14.1% 72.1% 0.20× 7.09
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions +12.5 8.5% 8.9% 67.9% 0.13× 11.25
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions +10.5 6.0% 8.9% 63.2% 0.14× 11.25
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions +9.5 5.0% 2.6% 60.7% 0.04× 38.72
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions +2.5 1.0% 2.6% 43.3% 0.06× 38.74
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions +3.5 1.3% 2.6% 45.8% 0.06× 38.74
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions +4.5 1.7% 2.6% 47.8% 0.05× 38.73
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions +5.5 2.2% 2.6% 50.3% 0.05× 38.73
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions +6.5 2.7% 2.6% 52.4% 0.05× 38.73
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions +7.5 3.3% 2.6% 55.2% 0.05× 38.73
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions +8.5 4.1% 2.6% 58.0% 0.04× 38.72
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions +1.5 0.8% 2.6% 41.3% 0.06× 38.74
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions −2.5 0.3% 2.6% 36.7% 0.07× 38.74
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions −3.5 0.3% 2.6% 34.3% 0.08× 38.74
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions −4.5 0.2% 2.6% 32.2% 0.08× 38.74
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions −5.5 0.1% 2.6% 29.9% 0.09× 38.74
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions −6.5 0.1% 2.6% 27.7% 0.09× 38.74
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions −7.5 0.1% 2.6% 25.5% 0.10× 38.74
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions −8.5 0.1% 2.6% 23.5% 0.11× 38.74
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions −9.5 0.0% 2.6% 21.3% 0.12× 38.74
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions −10.5 0.0% 2.6% 19.6% 0.13× 38.74
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions −12.5 0.0% 2.6% 16.2% 0.16× 38.74
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions −14.5 0.0% 2.6% 13.3% 0.19× 38.74
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions −16.5 0.0% 2.6% 10.9% 0.24× 38.74
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions −18.5 0.0% 2.6% 8.9% 0.29× 38.74
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions −20.5 0.0% 2.6% 7.3% 0.35× 38.74
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions −1.5 0.4% 2.6% 38.8% 0.07× 38.74
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 72.9% 67.1% 66.7% 1.01× 1.49
1st half highest scoring 27.1% 32.9% 33.3% 0.99× 3.04
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 highest scoring 34.8% 31.9% 31.2% 1.02× 3.14
Q3 highest scoring 33.0% 31.9% 31.3% 1.02× 3.14
Q1 highest scoring 16.9% 18.3% 19.6% 0.94× 5.46
Q2 highest scoring 15.3% 18.3% 17.9% 1.02× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
South Florida Bulls at HT / South Florida Bulls at FT 92.4% 94.0% 48.3% 1.95× 1.06
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at HT / South Florida Bulls at FT 5.6% 8.3% 9.8% 0.85× 12.10
Level at HT / South Florida Bulls at FT 1.4% 2.1% 1.9% 1.09× 47.77
South Florida Bulls at HT / Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at FT 0.2% 2.1% 8.2% 0.26× 47.79
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at HT / Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at FT 0.3% 2.1% 30.1% 0.07× 47.79
Level at HT / Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at FT 0.0% 2.1% 1.8% 1.20× 47.79
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
South Florida Bulls to win 99.4% 97.5% 59.9% 1.63× 1.03
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions to win 0.6% 2.5% 40.1% 0.06× 39.82
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
South Florida Bulls even 50.0% 50.5% 49.4% 1.02× 1.98
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions even 50.3% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
Total points odd 50.1% 50.5% 51.5% 0.98× 1.98
South Florida Bulls odd 50.0% 49.5% 50.6% 0.98× 2.02
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions odd 49.7% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
Total points even 49.9% 49.5% 48.5% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 99.1% 97.0% 95.6% 1.02× 1.03
Match to go to overtime 0.9% 3.0% 4.4% 0.67× 33.60
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
South Florida Bulls to win Q1 82.7% 85.7% 54.7% 1.57× 1.17
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions to win Q1 13.7% 11.5% 40.4% 0.28× 8.72
Q1 tied 3.7% 4.2% 4.9% 0.85× 23.98
Q1 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 under 41.5 89.9% 87.4% 91.9% 0.95× 1.14
Q1 over 25.5 86.9% 87.4% 77.6% 1.13× 1.14
Q1 under 38.5 79.7% 76.9% 84.8% 0.91× 1.30
Q1 over 28.5 74.8% 72.7% 62.7% 1.16× 1.38
Q1 under 36.5 70.2% 72.7% 77.4% 0.94× 1.38
Q1 over 30.5 64.4% 61.7% 51.2% 1.20× 1.62
Q1 under 34.5 59.2% 58.6% 68.5% 0.86× 1.71
Q1 under 33.5 53.3% 52.7% 64.0% 0.82× 1.90
Q1 over 32.5 52.7% 52.7% 40.9% 1.29× 1.90
Q1 under 32.5 47.3% 47.3% 59.1% 0.80× 2.11
Q1 over 33.5 46.7% 47.3% 36.0% 1.31× 2.11
Q1 over 34.5 40.8% 41.4% 31.5% 1.31× 2.42
Q1 under 30.5 35.6% 38.3% 48.8% 0.78× 2.61
Q1 over 36.5 29.8% 27.3% 22.6% 1.21× 3.66
Q1 under 28.5 25.2% 27.3% 37.3% 0.73× 3.67
Q1 over 38.5 20.3% 23.1% 15.2% 1.52× 4.33
Q1 under 25.5 13.1% 12.6% 22.4% 0.56× 7.95
Q1 over 41.5 10.1% 12.6% 8.1% 1.56× 7.95
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
South Florida Bulls to win Q2 81.9% 84.9% 52.9% 1.61× 1.18
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions to win Q2 14.4% 7.9% 41.5% 0.19× 12.74
Q2 tied 3.7% 4.4% 5.7% 0.77× 22.92
Q2 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 over 24.5 88.9% 87.3% 80.7% 1.08× 1.15
Q2 under 40.5 88.1% 87.3% 90.8% 0.96× 1.15
Q2 over 27.5 77.9% 76.8% 66.7% 1.15× 1.30
Q2 under 37.5 76.8% 76.8% 82.3% 0.93× 1.30
Q2 over 29.5 68.0% 67.4% 55.8% 1.21× 1.49
Q2 under 35.5 66.8% 67.4% 74.6% 0.90× 1.49
Q2 over 31.5 56.6% 58.2% 44.3% 1.31× 1.72
Q2 under 33.5 55.3% 58.2% 65.6% 0.89× 1.72
Q2 over 32.5 50.6% 52.7% 39.2% 1.34× 1.90
Q2 under 32.5 49.4% 47.3% 60.8% 0.78× 2.11
Q2 over 33.5 44.7% 41.8% 34.4% 1.22× 2.39
Q2 under 31.5 43.4% 41.8% 55.7% 0.75× 2.39
Q2 over 35.5 33.2% 32.6% 25.4% 1.29× 3.06
Q2 under 29.5 32.0% 32.6% 44.2% 0.74× 3.06
Q2 over 37.5 23.2% 23.2% 17.7% 1.31× 4.31
Q2 under 27.5 22.1% 23.2% 33.3% 0.70× 4.31
Q2 over 40.5 11.9% 12.7% 9.2% 1.38× 7.89
Q2 under 24.5 11.1% 12.7% 19.3% 0.66× 7.90
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
South Florida Bulls to win Q3 84.2% 85.8% 53.3% 1.61× 1.17
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions to win Q3 12.4% 11.3% 41.8% 0.27× 8.82
Q3 tied 3.4% 4.3% 4.9% 0.86× 23.47
Q3 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 under 44.5 89.6% 87.2% 92.1% 0.95× 1.15
Q3 over 28.5 86.0% 87.2% 76.4% 1.14× 1.15
Q3 under 41.5 79.4% 77.3% 85.1% 0.91× 1.29
Q3 over 31.5 73.9% 71.8% 61.6% 1.17× 1.39
Q3 under 39.5 70.2% 71.8% 77.9% 0.92× 1.39
Q3 over 33.5 63.5% 62.0% 50.9% 1.22× 1.61
Q3 under 37.5 59.5% 58.4% 69.7% 0.84× 1.71
Q3 under 36.5 53.7% 52.3% 64.6% 0.81× 1.91
Q3 over 35.5 52.1% 52.3% 40.3% 1.30× 1.91
Q3 under 35.5 47.9% 47.7% 59.7% 0.80× 2.10
Q3 over 36.5 46.3% 47.7% 35.4% 1.35× 2.10
Q3 over 37.5 40.5% 41.6% 30.3% 1.37× 2.40
Q3 under 33.5 36.5% 38.0% 49.1% 0.78× 2.63
Q3 over 39.5 29.8% 28.2% 22.1% 1.28× 3.55
Q3 under 31.5 26.1% 28.2% 38.4% 0.73× 3.55
Q3 over 41.5 20.6% 22.7% 14.9% 1.53× 4.40
Q3 under 28.5 14.0% 12.8% 23.6% 0.54× 7.83
Q3 over 44.5 10.4% 12.8% 7.9% 1.63× 7.83
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
South Florida Bulls to win Q4 83.7% 74.9% 52.8% 1.42× 1.34
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions to win Q4 12.9% 17.8% 41.5% 0.43× 5.63
Q4 tied 3.4% 5.2% 5.7% 0.91× 19.31
Q4 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 under 44.5 88.0% 85.6% 90.6% 0.95× 1.17
Q4 over 28.5 84.8% 82.0% 75.1% 1.09× 1.22
Q4 under 41.5 77.8% 76.9% 83.6% 0.92× 1.30
Q4 over 31.5 73.0% 71.5% 61.1% 1.17× 1.40
Q4 under 39.5 68.8% 67.4% 77.0% 0.88× 1.48
Q4 over 33.5 63.1% 61.4% 50.4% 1.22× 1.63
Q4 under 37.5 58.6% 58.4% 68.8% 0.85× 1.71
Q4 under 36.5 53.1% 52.5% 64.3% 0.82× 1.91
Q4 over 35.5 52.4% 52.5% 40.6% 1.29× 1.91
Q4 under 35.5 47.6% 47.5% 59.4% 0.80× 2.11
Q4 over 36.5 46.9% 47.5% 35.7% 1.33× 2.11
Q4 over 37.5 41.4% 41.6% 31.2% 1.33× 2.40
Q4 under 33.5 36.9% 38.6% 49.6% 0.78× 2.59
Q4 over 39.5 31.2% 32.6% 23.0% 1.41× 3.07
Q4 under 31.5 27.0% 28.5% 38.9% 0.73× 3.51
Q4 over 41.5 22.2% 23.1% 16.4% 1.41× 4.33
Q4 under 28.5 15.2% 18.0% 24.9% 0.72× 5.56
Q4 over 44.5 12.0% 14.4% 9.4% 1.53× 6.95
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions under 65.5 88.9% 83.9% 59.8% 1.40× 1.19
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions over 45.5 86.8% 83.9% 91.3% 0.92× 1.19
South Florida Bulls over 72.5 85.4% 83.9% 34.3% 2.44× 1.19
South Florida Bulls under 92.5 85.7% 83.9% 95.7% 0.88× 1.19
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions under 62.5 81.4% 80.7% 51.0% 1.58× 1.24
South Florida Bulls over 75.5 76.8% 75.1% 26.8% 2.80× 1.33
South Florida Bulls under 89.5 77.3% 75.1% 93.9% 0.80× 1.33
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions over 48.5 76.4% 75.1% 86.7% 0.87× 1.33
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions under 60.5 74.9% 70.7% 44.4% 1.59× 1.41
South Florida Bulls under 87.5 70.5% 70.7% 92.3% 0.77× 1.41
South Florida Bulls over 77.5 69.9% 66.4% 22.6% 2.94× 1.51
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions over 50.5 68.2% 66.4% 83.1% 0.80× 1.51
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions under 58.5 67.3% 66.4% 37.9% 1.75× 1.51
South Florida Bulls over 79.5 62.1% 61.2% 18.7% 3.27× 1.63
South Florida Bulls under 85.5 62.8% 61.2% 90.2% 0.68× 1.63
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions over 52.5 59.3% 57.1% 78.5% 0.73× 1.75
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions under 56.5 58.8% 57.1% 32.0% 1.79× 1.75
South Florida Bulls over 81.5 53.9% 52.3% 15.4% 3.39× 1.91
South Florida Bulls under 83.5 54.6% 52.3% 87.7% 0.60× 1.91
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions under 55.5 54.4% 52.3% 29.2% 1.79× 1.91
South Florida Bulls under 82.5 50.4% 52.3% 86.2% 0.61× 1.91
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions over 54.5 50.2% 52.3% 73.5% 0.71× 1.91
South Florida Bulls over 82.5 49.6% 47.7% 13.8% 3.47× 2.09
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions under 54.5 49.8% 47.7% 26.5% 1.80× 2.09
South Florida Bulls under 81.5 46.1% 47.7% 84.6% 0.56× 2.09
South Florida Bulls over 83.5 45.4% 47.7% 12.3% 3.88× 2.09
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions over 55.5 45.6% 47.7% 70.8% 0.67× 2.09
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions under 52.5 40.7% 42.9% 21.5% 1.99× 2.33
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions over 56.5 41.2% 42.9% 68.0% 0.63× 2.33
South Florida Bulls under 79.5 37.9% 38.8% 81.3% 0.48× 2.58
South Florida Bulls over 85.5 37.2% 38.8% 9.8% 3.96× 2.58
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions under 50.5 31.8% 33.6% 16.9% 1.99× 2.98
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions over 58.5 32.7% 33.6% 62.1% 0.54× 2.98
South Florida Bulls under 77.5 30.1% 33.6% 77.4% 0.43× 2.98
South Florida Bulls over 87.5 29.5% 29.3% 7.7% 3.81× 3.42
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions over 60.5 25.1% 29.3% 55.6% 0.53× 3.42
South Florida Bulls under 75.5 23.2% 24.9% 73.2% 0.34× 4.02
South Florida Bulls over 89.5 22.7% 24.9% 6.1% 4.05× 4.02
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions under 48.5 23.6% 24.9% 13.3% 1.87× 4.02
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions over 62.5 18.6% 19.3% 49.0% 0.39× 5.18
South Florida Bulls under 72.5 14.6% 16.1% 65.7% 0.25× 6.21
South Florida Bulls over 92.5 14.3% 16.1% 4.3% 3.71× 6.21
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions under 45.5 13.2% 16.1% 8.7% 1.86× 6.21
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions over 65.5 11.1% 16.1% 40.2% 0.40× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 117.5 points 92.7% 88.8% 75.3% 1.18× 1.13
Under 157.5 points 91.9% 88.8% 92.1% 0.96× 1.13
Over 122.5 points 85.6% 85.0% 65.6% 1.30× 1.18
Under 152.5 points 85.5% 85.0% 88.1% 0.97× 1.18
Under 147.5 points 76.4% 75.6% 82.3% 0.92× 1.32
Over 127.5 points 75.3% 75.6% 55.1% 1.37× 1.32
Under 144.5 points 69.7% 65.9% 78.1% 0.84× 1.52
Over 130.5 points 67.9% 65.9% 48.3% 1.36× 1.52
Under 142.5 points 64.8% 61.5% 75.1% 0.82× 1.63
Over 132.5 points 62.6% 61.5% 44.0% 1.40× 1.63
Under 140.5 points 59.5% 56.5% 71.8% 0.79× 1.77
Over 134.5 points 57.1% 56.5% 39.8% 1.42× 1.77
Under 138.5 points 54.1% 52.3% 67.9% 0.77× 1.91
Over 136.5 points 51.5% 52.3% 35.8% 1.46× 1.91
Under 137.5 points 51.3% 52.3% 66.2% 0.79× 1.91
Over 137.5 points 48.7% 47.7% 33.8% 1.41× 2.10
Under 136.5 points 48.5% 47.7% 64.2% 0.74× 2.10
Over 138.5 points 46.0% 47.7% 32.1% 1.49× 2.10
Under 134.5 points 42.9% 43.5% 60.2% 0.72× 2.30
Over 140.5 points 40.5% 43.5% 28.2% 1.54× 2.30
Under 132.5 points 37.4% 38.5% 56.0% 0.69× 2.60
Over 142.5 points 35.2% 38.5% 24.9% 1.55× 2.60
Under 130.5 points 32.1% 34.1% 51.7% 0.66× 2.93
Over 144.5 points 30.3% 34.1% 21.9% 1.56× 2.93
Under 127.5 points 24.7% 24.4% 44.9% 0.54× 4.10
Over 147.5 points 23.6% 24.4% 17.7% 1.37× 4.10
Under 122.5 points 14.4% 15.0% 34.4% 0.43× 6.68
Over 152.5 points 14.5% 15.0% 11.9% 1.26× 6.68
Over 157.5 points 8.1% 11.2% 7.9% 1.41× 8.96
Under 117.5 points 7.3% 11.2% 24.7% 0.45× 8.97
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
South Florida Bulls to win both halves 86.6% 86.1% 36.0% 2.39× 1.16
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions to win both halves 0.1% 3.0% 20.4% 0.15× 33.84
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
South Florida Bulls by 26+ 57.3% 62.3% 12.6% 4.94× 1.60
South Florida Bulls by 21-25 16.7% 16.8% 5.4% 3.11× 5.97
South Florida Bulls by 16-20 12.4% 12.3% 8.0% 1.53× 8.11
South Florida Bulls by 11-15 7.6% 7.5% 10.8% 0.69× 13.40
South Florida Bulls by 6-10 3.8% 2.0% 12.9% 0.16× 49.29
South Florida Bulls by 1-5 1.6% 2.0% 10.2% 0.20× 49.31
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions by 1-5 0.4% 2.0% 10.2% 0.20× 49.32
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions by 6-10 0.1% 2.0% 10.3% 0.20× 49.33
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions by 11-15 0.0% 2.0% 7.6% 0.27× 49.33
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions by 16-20 0.0% 2.0% 4.8% 0.43× 49.33
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions by 21-25 0.0% 2.0% 2.7% 0.76× 49.33
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions by 26+ 0.0% 2.0% 4.6% 0.44× 49.33
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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