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Southern Illinois Salukis v Richmond Spiders — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 12 November 2026 · NCAAB · 2027

NCAAB results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Southern Illinois Salukis win
71.2%
Draw
0.0%
Richmond Spiders win
28.8%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 74.19–68.40 74-68 0% 50% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Southern Illinois Salukis to score 100+ 0.5% 0.4% 3.4% 0.10× 283.26
Southern Illinois Salukis to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% 0.52× 283.35
Southern Illinois Salukis to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.87× 283.36
Southern Illinois Salukis to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 19.47× 283.36
Richmond Spiders to score 100+ 0.1% 0.4% 1.1% 0.33× 283.34
Richmond Spiders to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1.95× 283.36
Richmond Spiders to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 12.98× 283.36
Richmond Spiders to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 38.95× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.87× 283.36
H1 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Southern Illinois Salukis to win H1 60.6% 62.2% 57.9% 1.07× 1.61
Southern Illinois Salukis to win H1 60.6% 62.2% 57.9% 1.07× 1.61
Richmond Spiders to win H1 35.1% 37.8% 38.2% 0.99× 2.65
Richmond Spiders to win H1 35.1% 37.8% 38.2% 0.99× 2.65
H1 tied 4.3% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.86
H1 tied 4.3% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.86
H1 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 over 55.5 87.0% 87.7% 89.4% 0.98× 1.14
H1 under 79.5 87.1% 87.7% 83.1% 1.06× 1.14
H1 over 59.5 78.0% 77.4% 80.7% 0.96× 1.29
H1 under 75.5 78.3% 77.4% 72.8% 1.06× 1.29
H1 over 59.5 77.3% 77.4% 80.7% 0.96× 1.29
H1 under 75.5 77.5% 77.4% 72.8% 1.06× 1.29
H1 over 62.5 68.5% 67.4% 72.0% 0.94× 1.48
H1 under 72.5 68.8% 67.4% 63.3% 1.06× 1.48
H1 under 72.5 68.3% 67.4% 63.3% 1.06× 1.48
H1 over 62.5 67.9% 67.4% 72.0% 0.94× 1.48
H1 over 64.5 61.3% 62.7% 65.3% 0.96× 1.59
H1 under 70.5 61.6% 62.7% 56.5% 1.11× 1.59
H1 over 64.5 60.9% 62.7% 65.3% 0.96× 1.59
H1 under 70.5 61.3% 62.7% 56.5% 1.11× 1.59
H1 over 66.5 53.7% 52.6% 58.2% 0.90× 1.90
H1 under 68.5 54.1% 52.6% 49.3% 1.07× 1.90
H1 under 68.5 53.9% 52.6% 49.3% 1.07× 1.90
H1 over 66.5 53.6% 52.6% 58.2% 0.90× 1.90
H1 under 67.5 50.2% 52.6% 45.6% 1.15× 1.90
H1 under 67.5 50.2% 52.6% 45.6% 1.15× 1.90
H1 over 67.5 49.8% 47.4% 54.4% 0.87× 2.11
H1 over 67.5 49.8% 47.4% 54.4% 0.87× 2.11
H1 under 66.5 46.4% 47.4% 41.8% 1.13× 2.11
H1 under 66.5 46.3% 47.4% 41.8% 1.13× 2.11
H1 over 68.5 45.9% 47.4% 50.7% 0.93× 2.11
H1 over 68.5 46.1% 47.4% 50.7% 0.93× 2.11
H1 under 64.5 38.7% 37.3% 34.8% 1.07× 2.68
H1 over 70.5 38.4% 37.3% 43.5% 0.86× 2.68
H1 under 64.5 39.1% 37.3% 34.8% 1.07× 2.68
H1 over 70.5 38.7% 37.3% 43.5% 0.86× 2.68
H1 under 62.5 32.1% 32.6% 28.0% 1.16× 3.07
H1 under 62.5 31.5% 32.6% 28.0% 1.16× 3.07
H1 over 72.5 31.2% 32.6% 36.7% 0.89× 3.07
H1 over 72.5 31.7% 32.6% 36.7% 0.89× 3.07
H1 under 59.5 22.7% 22.6% 19.3% 1.17× 4.43
H1 over 75.5 22.5% 22.6% 27.2% 0.83× 4.43
H1 under 59.5 22.0% 22.6% 19.3% 1.17× 4.43
H1 over 75.5 21.7% 22.6% 27.2% 0.83× 4.43
H1 under 55.5 13.0% 12.3% 10.6% 1.16× 8.14
H1 over 79.5 12.9% 12.3% 16.9% 0.73× 8.14
H2 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Southern Illinois Salukis to win H2 61.6% 58.8% 56.9% 1.03× 1.70
Southern Illinois Salukis to win H2 61.5% 58.8% 57.5% 1.02× 1.70
Richmond Spiders to win H2 34.3% 36.3% 38.5% 0.94× 2.75
Richmond Spiders to win H2 34.3% 36.3% 38.9% 0.93× 2.75
H2 tied 4.1% 3.9% 4.2% 0.95× 25.35
H2 tied 4.1% 3.9% 4.1% 0.97× 25.35
H2 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 87.5 86.3% 85.2% 77.7% 1.10× 1.17
H2 over 63.5 85.1% 85.2% 88.2% 0.97× 1.17
H2 under 83.5 77.0% 75.8% 68.0% 1.11× 1.32
H2 under 83.5 77.6% 75.8% 71.6% 1.06× 1.32
H2 over 67.5 75.9% 75.8% 78.2% 0.97× 1.32
H2 over 67.5 75.3% 75.8% 80.0% 0.95× 1.32
H2 under 80.5 68.6% 66.4% 62.9% 1.06× 1.51
H2 under 80.5 68.2% 66.4% 59.2% 1.12× 1.51
H2 over 70.5 66.6% 66.4% 69.8% 0.95× 1.51
H2 over 70.5 66.1% 66.4% 71.9% 0.92× 1.51
H2 under 78.5 61.6% 61.6% 53.0% 1.16× 1.62
H2 under 78.5 61.9% 61.6% 56.4% 1.09× 1.62
H2 over 72.5 59.7% 57.3% 63.4% 0.90× 1.74
H2 over 72.5 59.4% 57.3% 65.9% 0.87× 1.74
H2 under 76.5 54.7% 52.4% 46.6% 1.12× 1.91
H2 under 76.5 54.8% 52.4% 49.7% 1.05× 1.91
H2 over 74.5 52.4% 52.4% 60.0% 0.87× 1.91
H2 over 74.5 52.5% 52.4% 57.0% 0.92× 1.91
H2 under 75.5 51.1% 52.4% 43.6% 1.20× 1.91
H2 under 75.5 51.2% 52.4% 46.6% 1.12× 1.91
H2 over 75.5 48.9% 47.6% 56.4% 0.84× 2.10
H2 over 75.5 48.8% 47.6% 53.4% 0.89× 2.10
H2 under 74.5 47.6% 47.6% 40.0% 1.19× 2.10
H2 under 74.5 47.5% 47.6% 43.0% 1.11× 2.10
H2 over 76.5 45.3% 47.6% 53.4% 0.89× 2.10
H2 over 76.5 45.2% 47.6% 50.3% 0.95× 2.10
H2 under 72.5 40.3% 42.7% 36.6% 1.17× 2.35
H2 under 72.5 40.6% 42.7% 34.1% 1.25× 2.35
H2 over 78.5 38.4% 38.4% 47.0% 0.82× 2.61
H2 over 78.5 38.1% 38.4% 43.6% 0.88× 2.61
H2 under 70.5 33.4% 33.6% 30.2% 1.11× 2.97
H2 under 70.5 33.9% 33.6% 28.1% 1.20× 2.97
H2 over 80.5 31.8% 33.6% 40.8% 0.82× 2.97
H2 over 80.5 31.4% 33.6% 37.1% 0.91× 2.97
H2 under 67.5 24.1% 24.2% 21.8% 1.11× 4.13
H2 under 67.5 24.7% 24.2% 20.0% 1.21× 4.13
H2 over 83.5 23.0% 24.2% 32.0% 0.76× 4.13
H2 over 83.5 22.4% 24.2% 28.4% 0.85× 4.13
H2 under 63.5 15.0% 14.8% 11.8% 1.25× 6.76
H2 over 87.5 13.7% 14.8% 22.3% 0.66× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Southern Illinois Salukis leading at half time 60.6% 62.5% 57.9% 1.08× 1.60
Richmond Spiders leading at half time 35.1% 37.8% 38.2% 0.99× 2.64
Level at half time 4.3% 3.8% 3.9% 0.97× 26.40
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Southern Illinois Salukis +14.5 97.0% 97.4% 92.2% 1.06× 1.03
Southern Illinois Salukis +16.5 98.1% 97.4% 94.0% 1.04× 1.03
Southern Illinois Salukis +18.5 98.8% 97.4% 95.4% 1.02× 1.03
Southern Illinois Salukis +20.5 99.3% 97.4% 96.5% 1.01× 1.03
Southern Illinois Salukis +12.5 95.5% 97.4% 89.9% 1.08× 1.03
Southern Illinois Salukis +10.5 93.3% 91.1% 87.2% 1.05× 1.10
Southern Illinois Salukis +8.5 90.6% 91.1% 83.3% 1.09× 1.10
Southern Illinois Salukis +9.5 92.0% 91.1% 85.3% 1.07× 1.10
Richmond Spiders +20.5 91.3% 91.1% 86.5% 1.05× 1.10
Southern Illinois Salukis +7.5 88.9% 85.9% 81.0% 1.06× 1.16
Southern Illinois Salukis +6.5 87.0% 85.9% 78.8% 1.09× 1.16
Richmond Spiders +18.5 87.9% 85.9% 83.9% 1.02× 1.16
Southern Illinois Salukis +5.5 84.9% 81.1% 76.4% 1.06× 1.23
Richmond Spiders +16.5 83.6% 81.1% 80.7% 1.01× 1.23
Southern Illinois Salukis +4.5 82.6% 81.1% 73.7% 1.10× 1.23
Southern Illinois Salukis +3.5 80.0% 81.1% 70.8% 1.15× 1.23
Southern Illinois Salukis +2.5 77.3% 76.5% 68.0% 1.13× 1.31
Richmond Spiders +14.5 78.5% 76.5% 77.2% 0.99× 1.31
Southern Illinois Salukis +1.5 74.3% 71.6% 65.4% 1.10× 1.40
Richmond Spiders +12.5 72.6% 71.6% 72.4% 0.99× 1.40
Southern Illinois Salukis −1.5 67.7% 66.7% 60.8% 1.10× 1.50
Richmond Spiders +10.5 65.9% 66.7% 67.4% 0.99× 1.50
Southern Illinois Salukis −2.5 64.1% 61.9% 57.7% 1.07× 1.62
Richmond Spiders +9.5 62.4% 61.9% 64.5% 0.96× 1.62
Southern Illinois Salukis −3.5 60.4% 61.9% 54.1% 1.14× 1.62
Richmond Spiders +8.5 58.7% 57.1% 61.5% 0.93× 1.75
Southern Illinois Salukis −4.5 56.6% 57.1% 50.7% 1.13× 1.75
Richmond Spiders +7.5 54.9% 52.4% 58.7% 0.89× 1.91
Southern Illinois Salukis −5.5 52.7% 52.4% 47.0% 1.11× 1.91
Richmond Spiders +6.5 51.1% 52.4% 55.7% 0.94× 1.91
Southern Illinois Salukis −6.5 48.9% 47.6% 44.3% 1.07× 2.10
Richmond Spiders +5.5 47.3% 47.6% 53.0% 0.90× 2.10
Southern Illinois Salukis −7.5 45.1% 47.6% 41.3% 1.15× 2.10
Richmond Spiders +4.5 43.4% 42.9% 49.3% 0.87× 2.33
Southern Illinois Salukis −8.5 41.3% 42.9% 38.5% 1.12× 2.33
Richmond Spiders +3.5 39.6% 38.1% 45.9% 0.83× 2.63
Southern Illinois Salukis −9.5 37.6% 38.1% 35.5% 1.07× 2.63
Richmond Spiders +2.5 35.9% 38.1% 42.3% 0.90× 2.63
Southern Illinois Salukis −10.5 34.1% 33.3% 32.6% 1.02× 3.01
Richmond Spiders +1.5 32.3% 33.3% 39.2% 0.85× 3.01
Southern Illinois Salukis −12.5 27.4% 28.4% 27.6% 1.03× 3.53
Richmond Spiders −1.5 25.7% 28.4% 34.6% 0.82× 3.53
Richmond Spiders −2.5 22.7% 23.5% 32.0% 0.73× 4.25
Southern Illinois Salukis −14.5 21.5% 23.5% 22.8% 1.03× 4.25
Richmond Spiders −3.5 20.0% 18.9% 29.3% 0.65× 5.29
Richmond Spiders −4.5 17.4% 18.9% 26.3% 0.72× 5.29
Southern Illinois Salukis −16.5 16.4% 18.9% 19.3% 0.98× 5.30
Richmond Spiders −5.5 15.1% 18.9% 23.6% 0.80× 5.30
Richmond Spiders −6.5 13.0% 14.1% 21.2% 0.66× 7.09
Southern Illinois Salukis −18.5 12.1% 14.1% 16.1% 0.87× 7.09
Richmond Spiders −7.5 11.1% 14.1% 19.0% 0.74× 7.09
Richmond Spiders −8.5 9.4% 8.9% 16.7% 0.53× 11.25
Richmond Spiders −9.5 8.0% 8.9% 14.7% 0.61× 11.25
Southern Illinois Salukis −20.5 8.7% 8.9% 13.5% 0.66× 11.25
Richmond Spiders −10.5 6.7% 8.9% 12.8% 0.69× 11.25
Richmond Spiders −12.5 4.6% 2.6% 10.1% 0.26× 38.72
Richmond Spiders −14.5 3.0% 2.6% 7.8% 0.33× 38.73
Richmond Spiders −16.5 1.9% 2.6% 6.0% 0.43× 38.73
Richmond Spiders −18.5 1.2% 2.6% 4.6% 0.57× 38.74
Richmond Spiders −20.5 0.7% 2.6% 3.5% 0.75× 38.74
Highest scoring half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 highest scoring 78.4% 71.6% 70.4% 1.02× 1.40
2nd half highest scoring 76.9% 71.6% 72.5% 0.99× 1.40
1st half highest scoring 23.1% 28.4% 27.5% 1.03× 3.53
H1 highest scoring 21.6% 28.4% 29.6% 0.96× 3.53
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Southern Illinois Salukis at HT / Southern Illinois Salukis at FT 51.8% 51.1% 48.6% 1.05× 1.96
Richmond Spiders at HT / Richmond Spiders at FT 18.6% 15.5% 25.8% 0.60× 6.47
Richmond Spiders at HT / Southern Illinois Salukis at FT 16.5% 15.5% 12.4% 1.25× 6.47
Southern Illinois Salukis at HT / Richmond Spiders at FT 8.8% 8.3% 9.3% 0.89× 12.08
Level at HT / Southern Illinois Salukis at FT 2.9% 2.1% 2.3% 0.92× 47.74
Level at HT / Richmond Spiders at FT 1.4% 2.1% 1.6% 1.28× 47.77
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Southern Illinois Salukis to win 71.2% 68.7% 63.2% 1.09× 1.46
Richmond Spiders to win 28.8% 31.3% 36.8% 0.85× 3.20
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Total points odd 51.7% 50.5% 51.6% 0.98× 1.98
Southern Illinois Salukis even 50.0% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
Richmond Spiders even 50.0% 50.5% 50.4% 1.00× 1.98
Southern Illinois Salukis odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
Richmond Spiders odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.6% 1.00× 2.02
Total points even 48.3% 49.5% 48.4% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 92.7% 94.0% 94.2% 1.00× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 7.3% 6.0% 5.8% 1.04× 16.65
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Southern Illinois Salukis under 84.5 85.2% 83.9% 76.1% 1.10× 1.19
Richmond Spiders under 78.5 85.6% 83.9% 73.7% 1.14× 1.19
Richmond Spiders over 58.5 84.8% 80.7% 86.2% 0.94× 1.24
Southern Illinois Salukis over 64.5 84.2% 80.7% 83.3% 0.97× 1.24
Southern Illinois Salukis under 81.5 76.9% 75.1% 67.9% 1.11× 1.33
Richmond Spiders over 61.5 76.2% 75.1% 79.3% 0.95× 1.33
Richmond Spiders under 75.5 77.4% 75.1% 64.7% 1.16× 1.33
Southern Illinois Salukis over 67.5 75.7% 75.1% 75.9% 0.99× 1.33
Southern Illinois Salukis under 79.5 70.2% 70.7% 61.6% 1.15× 1.41
Richmond Spiders under 73.5 70.6% 70.7% 58.3% 1.21× 1.41
Southern Illinois Salukis over 69.5 68.9% 66.4% 69.6% 0.95× 1.51
Richmond Spiders over 63.5 69.3% 66.4% 73.9% 0.90× 1.51
Southern Illinois Salukis under 77.5 62.7% 61.2% 55.4% 1.10× 1.63
Richmond Spiders under 71.5 63.1% 61.2% 51.8% 1.18× 1.63
Southern Illinois Salukis over 71.5 61.4% 61.2% 63.7% 0.96× 1.63
Richmond Spiders over 65.5 61.5% 61.2% 67.8% 0.90× 1.63
Southern Illinois Salukis under 75.5 54.8% 52.3% 49.0% 1.07× 1.91
Richmond Spiders under 69.5 55.0% 52.3% 45.2% 1.16× 1.91
Southern Illinois Salukis over 73.5 53.4% 52.3% 57.4% 0.91× 1.91
Richmond Spiders over 67.5 53.4% 52.3% 61.6% 0.85× 1.91
Southern Illinois Salukis under 74.5 50.7% 52.3% 45.9% 1.14× 1.91
Richmond Spiders under 68.5 50.8% 52.3% 41.6% 1.26× 1.91
Southern Illinois Salukis over 74.5 49.3% 47.7% 54.1% 0.88× 2.09
Richmond Spiders over 68.5 49.2% 47.7% 58.4% 0.82× 2.09
Southern Illinois Salukis under 73.5 46.6% 47.7% 42.6% 1.12× 2.09
Richmond Spiders under 67.5 46.6% 47.7% 38.4% 1.24× 2.09
Southern Illinois Salukis over 75.5 45.2% 47.7% 51.0% 0.94× 2.09
Richmond Spiders over 69.5 45.0% 47.7% 54.8% 0.87× 2.09
Southern Illinois Salukis under 71.5 38.6% 38.8% 36.3% 1.07× 2.58
Richmond Spiders under 65.5 38.5% 38.8% 32.2% 1.21× 2.58
Southern Illinois Salukis over 77.5 37.3% 38.8% 44.6% 0.87× 2.58
Richmond Spiders over 71.5 36.9% 38.8% 48.2% 0.81× 2.58
Southern Illinois Salukis under 69.5 31.1% 33.6% 30.4% 1.10× 2.98
Richmond Spiders under 63.5 30.7% 33.6% 26.1% 1.29× 2.98
Southern Illinois Salukis over 79.5 29.8% 29.3% 38.4% 0.76× 3.42
Richmond Spiders over 73.5 29.4% 29.3% 41.7% 0.70× 3.42
Southern Illinois Salukis under 67.5 24.3% 24.9% 24.1% 1.03× 4.02
Southern Illinois Salukis over 81.5 23.1% 24.9% 32.1% 0.78× 4.02
Richmond Spiders under 61.5 23.8% 24.9% 20.7% 1.20× 4.02
Richmond Spiders over 75.5 22.6% 24.9% 35.3% 0.71× 4.02
Southern Illinois Salukis under 64.5 15.8% 19.3% 16.7% 1.16× 5.18
Richmond Spiders under 58.5 15.2% 19.3% 13.8% 1.40× 5.18
Southern Illinois Salukis over 84.5 14.8% 16.1% 23.9% 0.67× 6.21
Richmond Spiders over 78.5 14.4% 16.1% 26.3% 0.61× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 122.5 points 89.7% 85.0% 91.3% 0.93× 1.18
Under 162.5 points 89.3% 85.0% 79.4% 1.07× 1.18
Over 127.5 points 82.8% 80.6% 85.8% 0.94× 1.24
Under 157.5 points 82.4% 80.6% 71.6% 1.13× 1.24
Over 132.5 points 73.7% 70.8% 78.3% 0.90× 1.41
Under 152.5 points 73.1% 70.8% 62.7% 1.13× 1.41
Over 135.5 points 67.2% 65.9% 72.9% 0.90× 1.52
Under 149.5 points 66.7% 65.9% 56.3% 1.17× 1.52
Over 137.5 points 62.5% 61.5% 69.0% 0.89× 1.63
Under 147.5 points 62.0% 61.5% 52.2% 1.18× 1.63
Over 139.5 points 57.7% 56.5% 64.6% 0.87× 1.77
Under 145.5 points 57.2% 56.5% 48.2% 1.17× 1.77
Over 141.5 points 52.8% 52.3% 60.4% 0.87× 1.91
Under 143.5 points 52.2% 52.3% 43.7% 1.20× 1.91
Over 142.5 points 50.3% 52.3% 58.3% 0.90× 1.91
Under 142.5 points 49.7% 47.7% 41.7% 1.14× 2.10
Under 141.5 points 47.2% 47.7% 39.6% 1.20× 2.10
Over 143.5 points 47.8% 47.7% 56.3% 0.85× 2.10
Under 139.5 points 42.3% 43.5% 35.4% 1.23× 2.30
Over 145.5 points 42.8% 43.5% 51.8% 0.84× 2.30
Over 147.5 points 38.0% 38.5% 47.8% 0.81× 2.60
Under 137.5 points 37.5% 38.5% 31.0% 1.24× 2.60
Under 135.5 points 32.8% 34.1% 27.1% 1.26× 2.93
Over 149.5 points 33.3% 34.1% 43.7% 0.78× 2.93
Over 152.5 points 26.9% 29.2% 37.4% 0.78× 3.43
Under 132.5 points 26.3% 29.2% 21.7% 1.34× 3.43
Under 127.5 points 17.2% 19.4% 14.2% 1.37× 5.15
Over 157.5 points 17.6% 19.4% 28.4% 0.68× 5.15
Under 122.5 points 10.3% 15.0% 8.7% 1.72× 6.69
Over 162.5 points 10.7% 15.0% 20.6% 0.73× 6.69
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Southern Illinois Salukis to win both halves 33.8% 31.3% 33.2% 0.94× 3.20
Richmond Spiders to win both halves 8.9% 8.8% 14.5% 0.61× 11.30
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Southern Illinois Salukis by 1-5 18.4% 16.8% 16.2% 1.03× 5.97
Southern Illinois Salukis by 6-10 18.7% 16.8% 14.4% 1.16× 5.97
Southern Illinois Salukis by 11-15 15.3% 16.8% 11.6% 1.45× 5.97
Richmond Spiders by 1-5 13.7% 12.3% 13.2% 0.94× 8.11
Southern Illinois Salukis by 16-20 10.1% 12.3% 7.6% 1.62× 8.11
Richmond Spiders by 6-10 8.5% 7.5% 10.8% 0.69× 13.40
Southern Illinois Salukis by 21-25 5.4% 7.5% 5.6% 1.34× 13.40
Richmond Spiders by 11-15 4.2% 2.0% 6.1% 0.34× 49.29
Richmond Spiders by 16-20 1.7% 2.0% 3.3% 0.61× 49.31
Southern Illinois Salukis by 26+ 3.4% 2.0% 7.9% 0.26× 49.30
Richmond Spiders by 21-25 0.6% 2.0% 1.9% 1.06× 49.32
Richmond Spiders by 26+ 0.2% 2.0% 1.6% 1.30× 49.33
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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