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Stanford Cardinal v UC Davis Aggies — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 November 2026 · NCAAW · 2027

NCAAW results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Stanford Cardinal win
93.0%
Draw
0.0%
UC Davis Aggies win
7.0%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 75.81–59.57 76-60 0% 50% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Stanford Cardinal to score 100+ 0.7% 0.4% 1.8% 0.20× 283.22
Stanford Cardinal to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.64× 283.35
Stanford Cardinal to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 2.91× 283.36
Stanford Cardinal to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 7.58× 283.36
UC Davis Aggies to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.71× 283.36
UC Davis Aggies to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.74× 283.36
UC Davis Aggies to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 18.95× 283.36
UC Davis Aggies to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 37.89× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 6.32× 283.36
H1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Stanford Cardinal to win H1 79.6% 79.2% 56.4% 1.40× 1.26
UC Davis Aggies to win H1 17.3% 16.9% 39.9% 0.42× 5.92
H1 tied 3.1% 3.9% 3.7% 1.05× 25.87
H1 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 77.5 89.5% 87.7% 91.6% 0.96× 1.14
H1 over 53.5 87.0% 87.7% 76.8% 1.14× 1.14
H1 under 73.5 80.5% 82.5% 85.6% 0.96× 1.21
H1 over 57.5 76.6% 77.4% 64.8% 1.19× 1.29
H1 under 70.5 71.4% 73.5% 78.9% 0.93× 1.36
H1 over 60.5 66.5% 67.4% 53.9% 1.25× 1.48
H1 under 68.5 64.3% 62.7% 73.5% 0.85× 1.59
H1 over 62.5 59.0% 58.2% 46.3% 1.26× 1.72
H1 under 66.5 56.7% 58.2% 67.1% 0.87× 1.72
H1 under 65.5 52.8% 52.6% 63.9% 0.82× 1.90
H1 over 64.5 51.2% 52.6% 39.3% 1.34× 1.90
H1 under 64.5 48.8% 47.4% 60.7% 0.78× 2.11
H1 over 65.5 47.2% 47.4% 36.1% 1.31× 2.11
H1 over 66.5 43.3% 41.8% 32.9% 1.27× 2.39
H1 under 62.5 41.0% 41.8% 53.7% 0.78× 2.39
H1 over 68.5 35.7% 37.3% 26.5% 1.41× 2.68
H1 under 60.5 33.5% 32.6% 46.1% 0.71× 3.07
H1 over 70.5 28.7% 26.5% 21.1% 1.26× 3.77
H1 under 57.5 23.4% 22.6% 35.2% 0.64× 4.43
H1 over 73.5 19.5% 17.5% 14.4% 1.21× 5.72
H1 under 53.5 13.0% 12.3% 23.2% 0.53× 8.14
H1 over 77.5 10.5% 12.3% 8.4% 1.47× 8.14
H2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Stanford Cardinal to win H2 81.1% 79.5% 56.0% 1.42× 1.26
UC Davis Aggies to win H2 16.1% 20.4% 40.6% 0.50× 4.90
H2 tied 2.8% 3.9% 3.4% 1.16× 25.36
H2 total 22
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 83.5 88.1% 85.2% 88.9% 0.96× 1.17
H2 over 59.5 86.2% 85.2% 77.0% 1.11× 1.17
H2 under 79.5 79.0% 75.8% 82.0% 0.92× 1.32
H2 over 63.5 76.1% 75.8% 65.3% 1.16× 1.32
H2 under 76.5 69.9% 66.4% 75.6% 0.88× 1.51
H2 over 66.5 66.4% 66.4% 55.4% 1.20× 1.51
H2 under 74.5 63.1% 61.6% 69.9% 0.88× 1.62
H2 over 68.5 59.2% 57.3% 48.7% 1.18× 1.74
H2 under 72.5 55.8% 57.3% 64.1% 0.90× 1.74
H2 over 70.5 51.7% 52.4% 42.2% 1.24× 1.91
H2 under 71.5 52.0% 52.4% 61.1% 0.86× 1.91
H2 under 70.5 48.3% 47.6% 57.8% 0.82× 2.10
H2 over 71.5 48.0% 47.6% 38.9% 1.23× 2.10
H2 over 72.5 44.2% 42.7% 36.0% 1.19× 2.34
H2 under 68.5 40.8% 42.7% 51.3% 0.83× 2.35
H2 over 74.5 36.9% 38.4% 30.1% 1.28× 2.61
H2 under 66.5 33.6% 33.6% 44.6% 0.75× 2.97
H2 over 76.5 30.1% 33.6% 24.4% 1.38× 2.97
H2 under 63.5 23.9% 24.2% 34.7% 0.70× 4.13
H2 over 79.5 21.0% 24.2% 18.0% 1.35× 4.13
H2 under 59.5 13.8% 14.8% 23.0% 0.64× 6.76
H2 over 83.5 11.9% 14.8% 11.1% 1.33× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Stanford Cardinal leading at half time 79.6% 79.7% 56.4% 1.41× 1.25
UC Davis Aggies leading at half time 17.3% 17.0% 39.9% 0.43× 5.88
Level at half time 3.1% 3.8% 3.7% 1.03× 26.42
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Stanford Cardinal +12.5 99.5% 97.4% 83.8% 1.16× 1.03
Stanford Cardinal +14.5 99.7% 97.4% 86.7% 1.12× 1.03
Stanford Cardinal +16.5 99.8% 97.4% 89.1% 1.09× 1.03
Stanford Cardinal +18.5 99.9% 97.4% 91.1% 1.07× 1.03
Stanford Cardinal +20.5 99.9% 97.4% 92.7% 1.05× 1.03
Stanford Cardinal +3.5 95.9% 97.4% 65.7% 1.48× 1.03
Stanford Cardinal +4.5 96.6% 97.4% 67.8% 1.44× 1.03
Stanford Cardinal +5.5 97.3% 97.4% 70.1% 1.39× 1.03
Stanford Cardinal +6.5 97.8% 97.4% 72.3% 1.35× 1.03
Stanford Cardinal +7.5 98.2% 97.4% 74.5% 1.31× 1.03
Stanford Cardinal +8.5 98.6% 97.4% 76.5% 1.27× 1.03
Stanford Cardinal +9.5 98.9% 97.4% 78.7% 1.24× 1.03
Stanford Cardinal +10.5 99.1% 97.4% 80.4% 1.21× 1.03
Stanford Cardinal +2.5 95.1% 97.4% 63.3% 1.54× 1.03
Stanford Cardinal +1.5 94.1% 91.1% 61.2% 1.49× 1.10
Stanford Cardinal −1.5 91.5% 91.1% 58.7% 1.55× 1.10
Stanford Cardinal −2.5 89.9% 85.9% 56.7% 1.51× 1.16
Stanford Cardinal −3.5 88.0% 85.9% 54.2% 1.58× 1.16
Stanford Cardinal −4.5 86.0% 85.9% 52.2% 1.65× 1.16
Stanford Cardinal −5.5 83.8% 81.1% 49.7% 1.63× 1.23
Stanford Cardinal −6.5 81.4% 81.1% 47.6% 1.70× 1.23
Stanford Cardinal −7.5 78.8% 76.5% 44.8% 1.71× 1.31
Stanford Cardinal −8.5 76.0% 76.5% 42.0% 1.82× 1.31
Stanford Cardinal −9.5 73.1% 71.6% 39.3% 1.82× 1.40
Stanford Cardinal −10.5 69.9% 66.7% 36.8% 1.81× 1.50
UC Davis Aggies +20.5 65.2% 66.7% 82.0% 0.81× 1.50
Stanford Cardinal −12.5 63.3% 61.9% 32.1% 1.93× 1.62
UC Davis Aggies +18.5 58.2% 57.1% 79.3% 0.72× 1.75
Stanford Cardinal −14.5 56.2% 57.1% 27.9% 2.05× 1.75
UC Davis Aggies +16.5 51.0% 52.4% 75.7% 0.69× 1.91
Stanford Cardinal −16.5 49.0% 47.6% 24.3% 1.96× 2.10
UC Davis Aggies +14.5 43.8% 42.9% 72.1% 0.60× 2.33
Stanford Cardinal −18.5 41.8% 42.9% 20.7% 2.07× 2.33
UC Davis Aggies +12.5 36.7% 38.1% 67.9% 0.56× 2.63
Stanford Cardinal −20.5 34.8% 33.3% 18.0% 1.85× 3.01
UC Davis Aggies +10.5 30.1% 33.3% 63.2% 0.53× 3.01
UC Davis Aggies +9.5 26.9% 28.4% 60.7% 0.47× 3.53
UC Davis Aggies +8.5 24.0% 23.5% 58.0% 0.41× 4.25
UC Davis Aggies +7.5 21.2% 23.5% 55.2% 0.43× 4.25
UC Davis Aggies +6.5 18.6% 18.9% 52.4% 0.36× 5.29
UC Davis Aggies +5.5 16.2% 18.9% 50.3% 0.38× 5.30
UC Davis Aggies +4.5 14.0% 14.1% 47.8% 0.30× 7.09
UC Davis Aggies +3.5 12.0% 14.1% 45.8% 0.31× 7.09
UC Davis Aggies +2.5 10.1% 14.1% 43.3% 0.33× 7.09
UC Davis Aggies +1.5 8.5% 8.9% 41.3% 0.22× 11.25
UC Davis Aggies −1.5 5.9% 8.9% 38.8% 0.23× 11.25
UC Davis Aggies −2.5 4.9% 2.6% 36.7% 0.07× 38.72
UC Davis Aggies −3.5 4.1% 2.6% 34.3% 0.08× 38.72
UC Davis Aggies −4.5 3.4% 2.6% 32.2% 0.08× 38.73
UC Davis Aggies −5.5 2.7% 2.6% 29.9% 0.09× 38.73
UC Davis Aggies −6.5 2.2% 2.6% 27.7% 0.09× 38.73
UC Davis Aggies −7.5 1.8% 2.6% 25.5% 0.10× 38.73
UC Davis Aggies −8.5 1.4% 2.6% 23.5% 0.11× 38.73
UC Davis Aggies −9.5 1.1% 2.6% 21.3% 0.12× 38.74
UC Davis Aggies −10.5 0.9% 2.6% 19.6% 0.13× 38.74
UC Davis Aggies −12.5 0.5% 2.6% 16.2% 0.16× 38.74
UC Davis Aggies −14.5 0.3% 2.6% 13.3% 0.19× 38.74
UC Davis Aggies −16.5 0.2% 2.6% 10.9% 0.24× 38.74
UC Davis Aggies −18.5 0.1% 2.6% 8.9% 0.29× 38.74
UC Davis Aggies −20.5 0.1% 2.6% 7.3% 0.35× 38.74
Highest scoring half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 72.8% 67.1% 66.7% 1.01× 1.49
1st half highest scoring 27.2% 32.9% 33.3% 0.99× 3.04
Highest scoring quarter 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 highest scoring 34.7% 31.9% 31.2% 1.02× 3.14
Q3 highest scoring 33.0% 31.9% 31.3% 1.02× 3.14
Q1 highest scoring 16.9% 18.3% 19.6% 0.94× 5.46
Q2 highest scoring 15.4% 18.3% 17.9% 1.02× 5.46
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Stanford Cardinal at HT / Stanford Cardinal at FT 77.3% 78.0% 48.3% 1.62× 1.28
UC Davis Aggies at HT / Stanford Cardinal at FT 13.0% 12.2% 9.8% 1.25× 8.17
UC Davis Aggies at HT / UC Davis Aggies at FT 4.3% 2.1% 30.1% 0.07× 47.72
Stanford Cardinal at HT / UC Davis Aggies at FT 2.4% 2.1% 8.2% 0.26× 47.75
Level at HT / Stanford Cardinal at FT 2.7% 2.1% 1.9% 1.09× 47.75
Level at HT / UC Davis Aggies at FT 0.4% 2.1% 1.8% 1.20× 47.79
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Stanford Cardinal to win 93.0% 90.6% 59.9% 1.51× 1.10
UC Davis Aggies to win 7.0% 9.4% 40.1% 0.23× 10.66
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Stanford Cardinal even 50.0% 50.5% 49.4% 1.02× 1.98
UC Davis Aggies even 50.1% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
Total points odd 50.6% 50.5% 51.5% 0.98× 1.98
Stanford Cardinal odd 50.0% 49.5% 50.6% 0.98× 2.02
UC Davis Aggies odd 49.9% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
Total points even 49.4% 49.5% 48.5% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 96.9% 97.0% 95.6% 1.02× 1.03
Match to go to overtime 3.1% 3.0% 4.4% 0.67× 33.45
Q1 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Stanford Cardinal to win Q1 69.9% 72.3% 54.7% 1.32× 1.38
UC Davis Aggies to win Q1 24.9% 22.2% 40.4% 0.55× 4.51
Q1 tied 5.1% 5.5% 4.9% 1.11× 18.33
Q1 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q1 over 24.5 88.5% 87.4% 81.8% 1.07× 1.14
Q1 under 40.5 87.9% 87.4% 89.9% 0.97× 1.14
Q1 over 27.5 77.5% 76.9% 67.7% 1.14× 1.30
Q1 under 37.5 76.7% 76.9% 81.6% 0.94× 1.30
Q1 over 29.5 67.6% 67.6% 56.9% 1.19× 1.48
Q1 under 35.5 66.7% 67.6% 73.2% 0.92× 1.48
Q1 over 31.5 56.4% 58.6% 46.0% 1.27× 1.71
Q1 under 33.5 55.4% 58.6% 64.0% 0.92× 1.71
Q1 over 32.5 50.5% 52.7% 40.9% 1.29× 1.90
Q1 under 32.5 49.5% 47.3% 59.1% 0.80× 2.11
Q1 over 33.5 44.6% 41.4% 36.0% 1.15× 2.42
Q1 under 31.5 43.6% 41.4% 54.0% 0.77× 2.42
Q1 over 35.5 33.3% 32.4% 26.8% 1.21× 3.08
Q1 under 29.5 32.4% 32.4% 43.1% 0.75× 3.08
Q1 over 37.5 23.3% 23.1% 18.4% 1.26× 4.33
Q1 under 27.5 22.5% 23.1% 32.3% 0.71× 4.33
Q1 over 40.5 12.1% 12.6% 10.1% 1.25× 7.95
Q1 under 24.5 11.5% 12.6% 18.2% 0.69× 7.95
Q2 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Stanford Cardinal to win Q2 69.4% 68.4% 52.9% 1.29× 1.46
UC Davis Aggies to win Q2 25.5% 27.7% 41.5% 0.67× 3.62
Q2 tied 5.1% 6.1% 5.7% 1.06× 16.51
Q2 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q2 under 40.5 88.9% 87.3% 90.8% 0.96× 1.15
Q2 over 24.5 87.5% 87.3% 80.7% 1.08× 1.15
Q2 under 37.5 78.2% 76.8% 82.3% 0.93× 1.30
Q2 over 27.5 75.9% 76.8% 66.7% 1.15× 1.30
Q2 under 35.5 68.5% 67.4% 74.6% 0.90× 1.49
Q2 over 29.5 65.8% 67.4% 55.8% 1.21× 1.49
Q2 under 33.5 57.4% 58.2% 65.6% 0.89× 1.72
Q2 over 31.5 54.4% 52.7% 44.3% 1.19× 1.90
Q2 under 32.5 51.5% 52.7% 60.8% 0.87× 1.90
Q2 over 32.5 48.5% 47.3% 39.2% 1.21× 2.11
Q2 under 31.5 45.6% 47.3% 55.7% 0.85× 2.11
Q2 over 33.5 42.6% 41.8% 34.4% 1.22× 2.39
Q2 under 29.5 34.2% 32.6% 44.2% 0.74× 3.06
Q2 over 35.5 31.5% 32.6% 25.4% 1.29× 3.06
Q2 under 27.5 24.1% 23.2% 33.3% 0.70× 4.31
Q2 over 37.5 21.8% 23.2% 17.7% 1.31× 4.31
Q2 under 24.5 12.5% 12.7% 19.3% 0.66× 7.89
Q2 over 40.5 11.1% 12.7% 9.2% 1.38× 7.90
Q3 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Stanford Cardinal to win Q3 71.2% 73.0% 53.3% 1.37× 1.37
UC Davis Aggies to win Q3 23.9% 22.5% 41.8% 0.54× 4.45
Q3 tied 4.9% 4.3% 4.9% 0.87× 23.42
Q3 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q3 under 43.5 87.6% 87.2% 90.2% 0.97× 1.15
Q3 over 27.5 87.5% 87.2% 80.0% 1.09× 1.15
Q3 under 40.5 76.6% 77.3% 81.9% 0.94× 1.29
Q3 over 30.5 76.3% 77.3% 66.8% 1.16× 1.29
Q3 under 38.5 67.0% 67.8% 73.9% 0.92× 1.48
Q3 over 32.5 66.5% 67.8% 56.1% 1.21× 1.48
Q3 under 36.5 56.0% 58.4% 64.6% 0.90× 1.71
Q3 over 34.5 55.5% 58.4% 45.4% 1.29× 1.71
Q3 under 35.5 50.3% 52.3% 59.7% 0.88× 1.91
Q3 over 35.5 49.8% 47.7% 40.3% 1.18× 2.10
Q3 under 34.5 44.5% 41.6% 54.6% 0.76× 2.40
Q3 over 36.5 44.0% 41.6% 35.4% 1.17× 2.40
Q3 under 32.5 33.5% 32.2% 43.9% 0.73× 3.10
Q3 over 38.5 33.1% 32.2% 26.1% 1.23× 3.10
Q3 under 30.5 23.7% 22.7% 33.2% 0.69× 4.40
Q3 over 40.5 23.4% 22.7% 18.1% 1.25× 4.40
Q3 over 43.5 12.4% 12.8% 9.8% 1.30× 7.83
Q3 under 27.5 12.5% 12.8% 20.0% 0.64× 7.83
Q4 result 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Stanford Cardinal to win Q4 70.9% 66.2% 52.8% 1.25× 1.51
UC Davis Aggies to win Q4 24.3% 29.1% 41.5% 0.70× 3.44
Q4 tied 4.8% 5.2% 5.7% 0.91× 19.28
Q4 total 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Q4 over 27.5 86.3% 85.6% 78.9% 1.09× 1.17
Q4 under 43.5 86.1% 85.6% 88.6% 0.97× 1.17
Q4 over 30.5 75.4% 76.9% 66.3% 1.16× 1.30
Q4 under 40.5 75.1% 76.9% 80.6% 0.95× 1.30
Q4 over 32.5 66.0% 67.4% 55.4% 1.22× 1.48
Q4 under 38.5 65.7% 67.4% 73.1% 0.92× 1.48
Q4 over 34.5 55.6% 58.4% 45.6% 1.28× 1.71
Q4 under 36.5 55.3% 58.4% 64.3% 0.91× 1.71
Q4 over 35.5 50.1% 52.5% 40.6% 1.29× 1.91
Q4 under 35.5 49.9% 47.5% 59.4% 0.80× 2.11
Q4 over 36.5 44.7% 41.6% 35.7% 1.17× 2.40
Q4 under 34.5 44.4% 41.6% 54.4% 0.76× 2.40
Q4 under 32.5 34.0% 32.6% 44.6% 0.73× 3.07
Q4 over 38.5 34.3% 32.6% 26.9% 1.21× 3.07
Q4 over 40.5 24.9% 23.1% 19.4% 1.19× 4.33
Q4 under 30.5 24.6% 23.1% 33.7% 0.68× 4.33
Q4 over 43.5 13.9% 14.4% 11.4% 1.26× 6.95
Q4 under 27.5 13.7% 14.4% 21.1% 0.68× 6.95
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
UC Davis Aggies under 70.5 88.1% 83.9% 73.7% 1.14× 1.19
Stanford Cardinal under 86.5 86.6% 83.9% 91.2% 0.92× 1.19
Stanford Cardinal over 66.5 84.3% 80.7% 51.8% 1.56× 1.24
UC Davis Aggies over 50.5 84.7% 80.7% 83.1% 0.97× 1.24
UC Davis Aggies under 67.5 80.4% 80.7% 65.6% 1.23× 1.24
Stanford Cardinal under 83.5 78.5% 75.1% 87.7% 0.86× 1.33
Stanford Cardinal over 69.5 75.5% 75.1% 42.6% 1.76× 1.33
UC Davis Aggies over 53.5 75.2% 75.1% 76.3% 0.98× 1.33
UC Davis Aggies under 65.5 73.9% 70.7% 59.8% 1.18× 1.41
Stanford Cardinal under 81.5 71.9% 70.7% 84.6% 0.84× 1.41
Stanford Cardinal over 71.5 68.4% 66.4% 37.0% 1.79× 1.51
UC Davis Aggies over 55.5 67.6% 66.4% 70.8% 0.94× 1.51
UC Davis Aggies under 63.5 66.3% 66.4% 53.9% 1.23× 1.51
Stanford Cardinal under 79.5 64.3% 61.2% 81.3% 0.75× 1.63
Stanford Cardinal over 73.5 60.5% 61.2% 31.5% 1.94× 1.63
UC Davis Aggies over 57.5 59.3% 57.1% 65.1% 0.88× 1.75
UC Davis Aggies under 61.5 58.1% 57.1% 47.9% 1.19× 1.75
Stanford Cardinal under 77.5 56.2% 57.1% 77.4% 0.74× 1.75
UC Davis Aggies under 60.5 53.7% 52.3% 44.4% 1.18× 1.91
Stanford Cardinal over 75.5 52.2% 52.3% 26.8% 1.95× 1.91
Stanford Cardinal under 76.5 52.0% 52.3% 75.4% 0.69× 1.91
UC Davis Aggies over 59.5 50.6% 52.3% 58.8% 0.89× 1.91
UC Davis Aggies under 59.5 49.4% 47.7% 41.2% 1.16× 2.09
Stanford Cardinal under 75.5 47.8% 47.7% 73.2% 0.65× 2.09
Stanford Cardinal over 76.5 48.0% 47.7% 24.6% 1.94× 2.09
UC Davis Aggies over 60.5 46.3% 47.7% 55.6% 0.86× 2.09
Stanford Cardinal over 77.5 43.8% 42.9% 22.6% 1.90× 2.33
UC Davis Aggies over 61.5 41.9% 42.9% 52.1% 0.82× 2.33
UC Davis Aggies under 57.5 40.7% 42.9% 34.9% 1.23× 2.33
Stanford Cardinal under 73.5 39.5% 38.8% 68.5% 0.57× 2.58
Stanford Cardinal over 79.5 35.7% 38.8% 18.7% 2.07× 2.58
UC Davis Aggies over 63.5 33.7% 33.6% 46.1% 0.73× 2.98
Stanford Cardinal under 71.5 31.6% 33.6% 63.0% 0.53× 2.98
UC Davis Aggies under 55.5 32.4% 33.6% 29.2% 1.15× 2.98
Stanford Cardinal over 81.5 28.1% 29.3% 15.4% 1.90× 3.42
UC Davis Aggies over 65.5 26.1% 29.3% 40.2% 0.73× 3.42
Stanford Cardinal under 69.5 24.5% 24.9% 57.4% 0.43× 4.02
UC Davis Aggies under 53.5 24.8% 24.9% 23.7% 1.05× 4.02
Stanford Cardinal over 83.5 21.5% 24.9% 12.3% 2.02× 4.02
UC Davis Aggies over 67.5 19.6% 19.3% 34.4% 0.56× 5.18
Stanford Cardinal under 66.5 15.7% 19.3% 48.2% 0.40× 5.18
UC Davis Aggies under 50.5 15.3% 19.3% 16.9% 1.14× 5.18
Stanford Cardinal over 86.5 13.4% 16.1% 8.8% 1.83× 6.21
UC Davis Aggies over 70.5 11.9% 16.1% 26.3% 0.61× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 156.5 points 91.8% 88.8% 91.3% 0.97× 1.13
Over 116.5 points 90.7% 88.8% 77.2% 1.15× 1.13
Under 151.5 points 85.5% 85.0% 87.3% 0.97× 1.18
Over 121.5 points 83.3% 80.6% 67.7% 1.19× 1.24
Under 146.5 points 76.5% 75.6% 80.9% 0.93× 1.32
Over 126.5 points 73.3% 70.8% 57.4% 1.24× 1.41
Under 143.5 points 70.0% 70.8% 76.7% 0.92× 1.41
Over 129.5 points 66.2% 65.9% 50.5% 1.30× 1.52
Under 141.5 points 65.2% 65.9% 73.4% 0.90× 1.52
Over 131.5 points 61.1% 61.5% 46.1% 1.33× 1.63
Under 139.5 points 60.1% 61.5% 69.9% 0.88× 1.63
Over 133.5 points 55.8% 56.5% 42.0% 1.35× 1.77
Under 137.5 points 54.9% 52.3% 66.2% 0.79× 1.91
Under 136.5 points 52.2% 52.3% 64.2% 0.81× 1.91
Over 135.5 points 50.5% 52.3% 37.6% 1.39× 1.91
Under 135.5 points 49.5% 47.7% 62.4% 0.76× 2.10
Over 136.5 points 47.8% 47.7% 35.8% 1.33× 2.10
Over 137.5 points 45.1% 47.7% 33.8% 1.41× 2.10
Under 133.5 points 44.2% 43.5% 58.0% 0.75× 2.30
Over 139.5 points 39.9% 38.5% 30.1% 1.28× 2.60
Under 131.5 points 38.9% 38.5% 53.9% 0.71× 2.60
Over 141.5 points 34.8% 34.1% 26.6% 1.28× 2.93
Under 129.5 points 33.8% 34.1% 49.5% 0.69× 2.93
Over 143.5 points 30.0% 29.2% 23.3% 1.25× 3.43
Under 126.5 points 26.7% 29.2% 42.6% 0.68× 3.43
Over 146.5 points 23.5% 24.4% 19.1% 1.28× 4.10
Under 121.5 points 16.7% 19.4% 32.3% 0.60× 5.15
Over 151.5 points 14.5% 15.0% 12.8% 1.17× 6.68
Under 116.5 points 9.3% 11.2% 22.8% 0.49× 8.96
Over 156.5 points 8.2% 11.2% 8.7% 1.29× 8.96
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Stanford Cardinal to win both halves 63.1% 60.7% 36.0% 1.68× 1.65
UC Davis Aggies to win both halves 1.7% 3.0% 20.4% 0.15× 33.74
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Stanford Cardinal by 26+ 19.9% 16.8% 12.6% 1.33× 5.97
Stanford Cardinal by 16-20 17.8% 16.8% 8.0% 2.08× 5.97
Stanford Cardinal by 11-15 17.3% 16.8% 10.8% 1.55× 5.97
Stanford Cardinal by 21-25 14.9% 12.3% 5.4% 2.29× 8.11
Stanford Cardinal by 6-10 13.9% 12.3% 12.9% 0.95× 8.11
Stanford Cardinal by 1-5 9.2% 7.5% 10.2% 0.73× 13.40
UC Davis Aggies by 1-5 4.3% 2.0% 10.2% 0.20× 49.29
UC Davis Aggies by 6-10 1.8% 2.0% 10.3% 0.20× 49.31
UC Davis Aggies by 11-15 0.7% 2.0% 7.6% 0.27× 49.32
UC Davis Aggies by 16-20 0.2% 2.0% 4.8% 0.43× 49.33
UC Davis Aggies by 21-25 0.0% 2.0% 2.7% 0.76× 49.33
UC Davis Aggies by 26+ 0.0% 2.0% 4.6% 0.44× 49.33
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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