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Tennessee Volunteers v Florida State Seminoles — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 1 December 2026 · NCAAB · 2027

NCAAB results-only Prediction generated

Tennessee Volunteers
v
Florida State Seminoles

AI prediction

nba-normal No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Tennessee Volunteers win
87.4%
Draw
0.0%
Florida State Seminoles win
12.6%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
nba-normal 80.84–68.93 81-69 0% 48% 0%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

Century marks 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Volunteers to score 100+ 2.8% 0.4% 3.4% 0.10× 282.80
Tennessee Volunteers to score 110+ 0.2% 0.4% 0.7% 0.52× 283.32
Tennessee Volunteers to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4.87× 283.36
Tennessee Volunteers to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 19.47× 283.36
Florida State Seminoles to score 100+ 0.1% 0.4% 1.1% 0.33× 283.34
Florida State Seminoles to score 110+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1.95× 283.36
Florida State Seminoles to score 120+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 12.98× 283.36
Florida State Seminoles to score 130+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 38.95× 283.36
Both sides to score 100+ 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.87× 283.35
H1 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Volunteers to win H1 72.8% 73.0% 57.9% 1.26× 1.37
Tennessee Volunteers to win H1 72.7% 73.0% 57.9% 1.26× 1.37
Florida State Seminoles to win H1 23.6% 21.4% 38.2% 0.56× 4.67
Florida State Seminoles to win H1 23.5% 21.4% 38.2% 0.56× 4.67
H1 tied 3.7% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.86
H1 tied 3.7% 3.9% 3.9% 0.99× 25.86
H1 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H1 under 83.5 88.3% 87.7% 90.3% 0.97× 1.14
H1 over 59.5 85.7% 87.7% 80.7% 1.09× 1.14
H1 under 79.5 79.2% 77.4% 83.1% 0.93× 1.29
H1 under 79.5 80.0% 77.4% 83.1% 0.93× 1.29
H1 over 63.5 76.2% 77.4% 69.0% 1.12× 1.29
H1 over 63.5 75.5% 77.4% 69.0% 1.12× 1.29
H1 under 76.5 70.9% 73.5% 75.5% 0.97× 1.36
H1 under 76.5 70.3% 73.5% 75.5% 0.97× 1.36
H1 over 66.5 65.9% 67.4% 58.2% 1.16× 1.48
H1 over 66.5 66.3% 67.4% 58.2% 1.16× 1.48
H1 under 74.5 63.5% 62.7% 69.6% 0.90× 1.59
H1 under 74.5 63.9% 62.7% 69.6% 0.90× 1.59
H1 over 68.5 58.7% 58.2% 50.7% 1.15× 1.72
H1 over 68.5 59.0% 58.2% 50.7% 1.15× 1.72
H1 under 72.5 56.4% 58.2% 63.3% 0.92× 1.72
H1 under 72.5 56.2% 58.2% 63.3% 0.92× 1.72
H1 under 71.5 52.5% 52.6% 60.0% 0.88× 1.90
H1 under 71.5 52.5% 52.6% 60.0% 0.88× 1.90
H1 over 70.5 51.3% 52.6% 43.5% 1.21× 1.90
H1 over 70.5 51.3% 52.6% 43.5% 1.21× 1.90
H1 under 70.5 48.7% 47.4% 56.5% 0.84× 2.11
H1 under 70.5 48.7% 47.4% 56.5% 0.84× 2.11
H1 over 71.5 47.5% 47.4% 40.0% 1.19× 2.11
H1 over 71.5 47.5% 47.4% 40.0% 1.19× 2.11
H1 over 72.5 43.8% 41.8% 36.7% 1.14× 2.39
H1 over 72.5 43.6% 41.8% 36.7% 1.14× 2.39
H1 under 68.5 41.3% 41.8% 49.3% 0.85× 2.39
H1 under 68.5 41.0% 41.8% 49.3% 0.85× 2.39
H1 over 74.5 36.6% 37.3% 30.4% 1.23× 2.68
H1 over 74.5 36.1% 37.3% 30.4% 1.23× 2.68
H1 under 66.5 34.1% 32.6% 41.8% 0.78× 3.07
H1 under 66.5 33.7% 32.6% 41.8% 0.78× 3.07
H1 over 76.5 29.7% 26.5% 24.5% 1.08× 3.77
H1 over 76.5 29.1% 26.5% 24.5% 1.08× 3.77
H1 under 63.5 24.5% 22.6% 31.0% 0.73× 4.43
H1 under 63.5 23.8% 22.6% 31.0% 0.73× 4.43
H1 over 79.5 20.8% 22.6% 16.9% 1.34× 4.43
H1 over 79.5 20.0% 22.6% 16.9% 1.34× 4.43
H1 under 59.5 14.3% 12.3% 19.3% 0.64× 8.13
H1 over 83.5 11.7% 12.3% 9.7% 1.26× 8.14
H2 result 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Volunteers to win H2 74.4% 67.6% 57.5% 1.18× 1.48
Tennessee Volunteers to win H2 74.4% 67.6% 56.9% 1.19× 1.48
Florida State Seminoles to win H2 22.2% 26.8% 38.5% 0.70× 3.73
Florida State Seminoles to win H2 22.1% 26.8% 38.9% 0.69× 3.73
H2 tied 3.4% 3.9% 4.1% 0.97× 25.36
H2 tied 3.4% 3.9% 4.2% 0.95× 25.36
H2 total 40
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 under 91.5 86.7% 85.2% 85.5% 1.00× 1.17
H2 over 67.5 84.6% 81.8% 80.0% 1.02× 1.22
H2 under 87.5 78.2% 75.8% 81.2% 0.93× 1.32
H2 under 87.5 77.6% 75.8% 77.7% 0.98× 1.32
H2 over 71.5 75.2% 75.8% 66.4% 1.14× 1.32
H2 over 71.5 74.6% 72.2% 68.8% 1.05× 1.39
H2 under 84.5 69.3% 66.4% 74.1% 0.90× 1.51
H2 under 84.5 68.8% 66.4% 70.5% 0.94× 1.51
H2 over 74.5 65.8% 66.4% 57.0% 1.16× 1.51
H2 over 74.5 65.4% 66.4% 60.0% 1.11× 1.51
H2 under 82.5 62.7% 61.6% 68.9% 0.89× 1.62
H2 under 82.5 62.3% 61.6% 65.3% 0.94× 1.62
H2 over 76.5 58.9% 57.3% 50.3% 1.14× 1.74
H2 over 76.5 58.7% 57.3% 53.4% 1.07× 1.74
H2 under 80.5 55.6% 57.3% 62.9% 0.91× 1.74
H2 under 80.5 55.4% 57.3% 59.2% 0.97× 1.74
H2 over 78.5 51.7% 52.4% 43.6% 1.20× 1.91
H2 under 79.5 52.0% 52.4% 59.8% 0.88× 1.91
H2 over 78.5 51.6% 52.4% 47.0% 1.11× 1.91
H2 under 79.5 51.9% 52.4% 56.2% 0.93× 1.91
H2 under 78.5 48.3% 47.6% 56.4% 0.84× 2.10
H2 over 79.5 48.0% 47.6% 40.3% 1.18× 2.10
H2 under 78.5 48.4% 47.6% 53.0% 0.90× 2.10
H2 over 79.5 48.1% 47.6% 43.8% 1.09× 2.10
H2 over 80.5 44.4% 42.7% 37.1% 1.15× 2.34
H2 over 80.5 44.6% 42.7% 40.8% 1.05× 2.34
H2 under 76.5 41.1% 42.7% 49.7% 0.86× 2.34
H2 under 76.5 41.3% 42.7% 46.6% 0.92× 2.34
H2 over 82.5 37.3% 38.4% 31.1% 1.23× 2.61
H2 over 82.5 37.7% 38.4% 34.7% 1.11× 2.61
H2 under 74.5 34.6% 33.6% 40.0% 0.84× 2.97
H2 under 74.5 34.2% 33.6% 43.0% 0.78× 2.97
H2 over 84.5 30.7% 33.6% 25.9% 1.30× 2.97
H2 over 84.5 31.2% 33.6% 29.5% 1.14× 2.97
H2 under 71.5 25.4% 27.8% 31.2% 0.89× 3.59
H2 under 71.5 24.8% 24.2% 33.6% 0.72× 4.13
H2 over 87.5 22.4% 24.2% 22.3% 1.08× 4.13
H2 over 87.5 21.8% 24.2% 18.8% 1.29× 4.13
H2 under 67.5 15.4% 18.2% 20.0% 0.91× 5.50
H2 over 91.5 13.3% 14.8% 14.5% 1.02× 6.76
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Volunteers leading at half time 72.7% 73.5% 57.9% 1.27× 1.36
Florida State Seminoles leading at half time 23.6% 21.0% 38.2% 0.55× 4.77
Level at half time 3.7% 3.8% 3.9% 0.97× 26.41
Handicap 60
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Volunteers +16.5 99.6% 97.4% 94.0% 1.04× 1.03
Tennessee Volunteers +18.5 99.8% 97.4% 95.4% 1.02× 1.03
Tennessee Volunteers +20.5 99.9% 97.4% 96.5% 1.01× 1.03
Tennessee Volunteers +6.5 95.6% 97.4% 78.8% 1.24× 1.03
Tennessee Volunteers +7.5 96.4% 97.4% 81.0% 1.20× 1.03
Tennessee Volunteers +8.5 97.1% 97.4% 83.3% 1.17× 1.03
Tennessee Volunteers +9.5 97.7% 97.4% 85.3% 1.14× 1.03
Tennessee Volunteers +10.5 98.1% 97.4% 87.2% 1.12× 1.03
Tennessee Volunteers +12.5 98.8% 97.4% 89.9% 1.08× 1.03
Tennessee Volunteers +14.5 99.3% 97.4% 92.2% 1.06× 1.03
Tennessee Volunteers +5.5 94.7% 91.1% 76.4% 1.19× 1.10
Tennessee Volunteers +3.5 92.3% 91.1% 70.8% 1.29× 1.10
Tennessee Volunteers +4.5 93.6% 91.1% 73.7% 1.24× 1.10
Tennessee Volunteers +2.5 90.9% 91.1% 68.0% 1.34× 1.10
Tennessee Volunteers +1.5 89.2% 85.9% 65.4% 1.31× 1.16
Tennessee Volunteers −1.5 85.1% 85.9% 60.8% 1.41× 1.16
Tennessee Volunteers −2.5 82.6% 81.1% 57.7% 1.41× 1.23
Tennessee Volunteers −3.5 79.9% 76.5% 54.1% 1.41× 1.31
Florida State Seminoles +20.5 78.4% 76.5% 86.5% 0.88× 1.31
Tennessee Volunteers −4.5 77.1% 76.5% 50.7% 1.51× 1.31
Tennessee Volunteers −5.5 74.0% 71.6% 47.0% 1.52× 1.40
Florida State Seminoles +18.5 72.5% 71.6% 83.9% 0.85× 1.40
Tennessee Volunteers −6.5 70.7% 71.6% 44.3% 1.62× 1.40
Tennessee Volunteers −7.5 67.3% 66.7% 41.3% 1.61× 1.50
Florida State Seminoles +16.5 65.9% 66.7% 80.7% 0.83× 1.50
Tennessee Volunteers −8.5 63.7% 61.9% 38.5% 1.61× 1.62
Tennessee Volunteers −9.5 60.1% 61.9% 35.5% 1.75× 1.62
Florida State Seminoles +14.5 58.7% 57.1% 77.2% 0.74× 1.75
Tennessee Volunteers −10.5 56.3% 57.1% 32.6% 1.75× 1.75
Florida State Seminoles +12.5 51.2% 52.4% 72.4% 0.72× 1.91
Tennessee Volunteers −12.5 48.8% 47.6% 27.6% 1.72× 2.10
Florida State Seminoles +10.5 43.7% 42.9% 67.4% 0.64× 2.33
Tennessee Volunteers −14.5 41.3% 42.9% 22.8% 1.88× 2.33
Florida State Seminoles +9.5 39.9% 38.1% 64.5% 0.59× 2.63
Florida State Seminoles +8.5 36.3% 38.1% 61.5% 0.62× 2.63
Tennessee Volunteers −16.5 34.1% 33.3% 19.3% 1.72× 3.01
Florida State Seminoles +7.5 32.7% 33.3% 58.7% 0.57× 3.01
Florida State Seminoles +6.5 29.3% 28.4% 55.7% 0.51× 3.53
Tennessee Volunteers −18.5 27.5% 28.4% 16.1% 1.76× 3.53
Florida State Seminoles +5.5 26.0% 28.4% 53.0% 0.54× 3.53
Florida State Seminoles +4.5 22.9% 23.5% 49.3% 0.48× 4.25
Tennessee Volunteers −20.5 21.6% 23.5% 13.5% 1.75× 4.25
Florida State Seminoles +3.5 20.1% 23.5% 45.9% 0.51× 4.25
Florida State Seminoles +2.5 17.4% 18.9% 42.3% 0.45× 5.29
Florida State Seminoles +1.5 14.9% 14.1% 39.2% 0.36× 7.09
Florida State Seminoles −1.5 10.8% 14.1% 34.6% 0.41× 7.09
Florida State Seminoles −2.5 9.1% 8.9% 32.0% 0.28× 11.25
Florida State Seminoles −3.5 7.7% 8.9% 29.3% 0.30× 11.25
Florida State Seminoles −4.5 6.4% 8.9% 26.3% 0.34× 11.25
Florida State Seminoles −5.5 5.3% 8.9% 23.6% 0.38× 11.25
Florida State Seminoles −6.5 4.4% 2.6% 21.2% 0.12× 38.72
Florida State Seminoles −7.5 3.6% 2.6% 19.0% 0.14× 38.73
Florida State Seminoles −8.5 2.9% 2.6% 16.7% 0.16× 38.73
Florida State Seminoles −9.5 2.3% 2.6% 14.7% 0.18× 38.73
Florida State Seminoles −10.5 1.9% 2.6% 12.8% 0.20× 38.73
Florida State Seminoles −12.5 1.2% 2.6% 10.1% 0.26× 38.74
Florida State Seminoles −14.5 0.7% 2.6% 7.8% 0.33× 38.74
Florida State Seminoles −16.5 0.4% 2.6% 6.0% 0.43× 38.74
Florida State Seminoles −18.5 0.2% 2.6% 4.6% 0.57× 38.74
Florida State Seminoles −20.5 0.1% 2.6% 3.5% 0.75× 38.74
Highest scoring half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
H2 highest scoring 79.6% 71.6% 70.4% 1.02× 1.40
2nd half highest scoring 78.1% 71.6% 72.5% 0.99× 1.40
1st half highest scoring 21.9% 28.4% 27.5% 1.03× 3.53
H1 highest scoring 20.4% 28.4% 29.6% 0.96× 3.53
HT/FT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Volunteers at HT / Tennessee Volunteers at FT 68.6% 68.3% 48.6% 1.41× 1.47
Florida State Seminoles at HT / Tennessee Volunteers at FT 15.8% 15.4% 12.4% 1.25× 6.47
Florida State Seminoles at HT / Florida State Seminoles at FT 7.8% 8.3% 25.8% 0.32× 12.09
Tennessee Volunteers at HT / Florida State Seminoles at FT 4.2% 2.1% 9.3% 0.22× 47.72
Level at HT / Tennessee Volunteers at FT 3.0% 2.1% 2.3% 0.92× 47.74
Level at HT / Florida State Seminoles at FT 0.6% 2.1% 1.6% 1.28× 47.78
Moneyline 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Volunteers to win 87.4% 85.5% 63.2% 1.35× 1.17
Florida State Seminoles to win 12.6% 14.5% 36.8% 0.39× 6.91
Odd/Even 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Volunteers even 50.0% 50.5% 50.1% 1.01× 1.98
Florida State Seminoles even 50.0% 50.5% 50.4% 1.00× 1.98
Total points odd 51.0% 50.5% 51.6% 0.98× 1.98
Tennessee Volunteers odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.9% 0.99× 2.02
Florida State Seminoles odd 50.0% 49.5% 49.6% 1.00× 2.02
Total points even 49.0% 49.5% 48.4% 1.02× 2.02
Overtime 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No overtime 94.5% 94.0% 94.2% 1.00× 1.06
Match to go to overtime 5.5% 6.0% 5.8% 1.04× 16.66
Team total 44
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Volunteers under 91.5 86.0% 83.9% 89.7% 0.94× 1.19
Florida State Seminoles under 79.5 86.9% 83.9% 76.3% 1.10× 1.19
Tennessee Volunteers over 71.5 83.5% 80.7% 63.7% 1.27× 1.24
Florida State Seminoles over 59.5 83.7% 80.7% 84.5% 0.96× 1.24
Tennessee Volunteers under 88.5 78.0% 75.1% 84.8% 0.89× 1.33
Florida State Seminoles under 76.5 79.0% 75.1% 67.9% 1.11× 1.33
Tennessee Volunteers over 74.5 74.8% 70.7% 54.1% 1.31× 1.41
Florida State Seminoles over 62.5 74.7% 70.7% 76.6% 0.92× 1.41
Florida State Seminoles under 74.5 72.5% 70.7% 61.7% 1.15× 1.41
Tennessee Volunteers under 86.5 71.5% 70.7% 80.8% 0.88× 1.41
Tennessee Volunteers over 76.5 67.8% 66.4% 47.7% 1.39× 1.51
Florida State Seminoles over 64.5 67.5% 66.4% 70.7% 0.94× 1.51
Florida State Seminoles under 72.5 65.1% 66.4% 55.3% 1.20× 1.51
Tennessee Volunteers under 84.5 64.1% 61.2% 76.1% 0.80× 1.63
Tennessee Volunteers over 78.5 60.1% 61.2% 41.6% 1.47× 1.63
Florida State Seminoles over 66.5 59.6% 57.1% 64.7% 0.88× 1.75
Florida State Seminoles under 70.5 57.1% 57.1% 48.7% 1.17× 1.75
Tennessee Volunteers under 82.5 56.2% 57.1% 70.8% 0.81× 1.75
Tennessee Volunteers over 80.5 52.0% 52.3% 35.1% 1.49× 1.91
Tennessee Volunteers under 81.5 52.1% 52.3% 67.9% 0.77× 1.91
Florida State Seminoles over 68.5 51.3% 52.3% 58.4% 0.89× 1.91
Florida State Seminoles under 69.5 52.9% 52.3% 45.2% 1.16× 1.91
Tennessee Volunteers under 80.5 48.0% 47.7% 64.9% 0.74× 2.09
Tennessee Volunteers over 81.5 47.9% 47.7% 32.1% 1.49× 2.09
Florida State Seminoles under 68.5 48.7% 47.7% 41.6% 1.15× 2.09
Florida State Seminoles over 69.5 47.1% 47.7% 54.8% 0.87× 2.09
Tennessee Volunteers over 82.5 43.8% 42.9% 29.2% 1.47× 2.33
Florida State Seminoles over 70.5 42.9% 42.9% 51.4% 0.84× 2.33
Florida State Seminoles under 66.5 40.4% 42.9% 35.3% 1.22× 2.33
Tennessee Volunteers under 78.5 39.9% 38.8% 58.4% 0.66× 2.58
Tennessee Volunteers over 84.5 35.9% 38.8% 23.9% 1.63× 2.58
Florida State Seminoles over 72.5 34.9% 33.6% 44.7% 0.75× 2.98
Tennessee Volunteers under 76.5 32.2% 33.6% 52.3% 0.64× 2.98
Florida State Seminoles under 64.5 32.5% 33.6% 29.3% 1.15× 2.98
Tennessee Volunteers over 86.5 28.5% 29.3% 19.2% 1.53× 3.42
Florida State Seminoles over 74.5 27.5% 29.3% 38.3% 0.76× 3.42
Tennessee Volunteers under 74.5 25.2% 29.3% 45.9% 0.64× 3.42
Florida State Seminoles under 62.5 25.3% 29.3% 23.4% 1.25× 3.42
Tennessee Volunteers over 88.5 22.0% 24.9% 15.2% 1.64× 4.02
Florida State Seminoles over 76.5 21.0% 24.9% 32.1% 0.78× 4.02
Tennessee Volunteers under 71.5 16.5% 19.3% 36.3% 0.53× 5.18
Florida State Seminoles under 59.5 16.3% 19.3% 15.5% 1.24× 5.18
Tennessee Volunteers over 91.5 14.0% 16.1% 10.3% 1.56× 6.21
Florida State Seminoles over 79.5 13.1% 16.1% 23.7% 0.68× 6.21
Total points 30
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 170.5 points 90.2% 88.8% 88.6% 1.00× 1.13
Over 130.5 points 88.7% 85.0% 81.5% 1.04× 1.18
Under 165.5 points 83.7% 80.6% 83.4% 0.97× 1.24
Over 135.5 points 81.4% 80.6% 72.9% 1.11× 1.24
Under 160.5 points 74.8% 70.8% 76.4% 0.93× 1.41
Over 140.5 points 72.0% 70.8% 62.8% 1.13× 1.41
Under 157.5 points 68.5% 65.9% 71.6% 0.92× 1.52
Over 143.5 points 65.3% 65.9% 56.3% 1.17× 1.52
Under 155.5 points 63.9% 61.5% 68.1% 0.90× 1.63
Over 145.5 points 60.6% 61.5% 51.8% 1.19× 1.63
Under 153.5 points 59.2% 56.5% 64.6% 0.87× 1.77
Over 147.5 points 55.7% 56.5% 47.8% 1.18× 1.77
Under 151.5 points 54.3% 52.3% 60.6% 0.86× 1.91
Under 150.5 points 51.7% 52.3% 58.4% 0.90× 1.91
Over 149.5 points 50.7% 52.3% 43.7% 1.20× 1.91
Under 149.5 points 49.3% 47.7% 56.3% 0.85× 2.10
Over 150.5 points 48.3% 47.7% 41.6% 1.15× 2.10
Over 151.5 points 45.7% 47.7% 39.4% 1.21× 2.10
Under 147.5 points 44.3% 43.5% 52.2% 0.83× 2.30
Over 153.5 points 40.8% 43.5% 35.4% 1.23× 2.30
Under 145.5 points 39.4% 38.5% 48.2% 0.80× 2.60
Over 155.5 points 36.1% 38.5% 31.9% 1.21× 2.60
Under 143.5 points 34.7% 34.1% 43.7% 0.78× 2.93
Over 157.5 points 31.5% 34.1% 28.4% 1.20× 2.93
Under 140.5 points 28.0% 29.2% 37.2% 0.78× 3.43
Over 160.5 points 25.2% 29.2% 23.6% 1.23× 3.43
Under 135.5 points 18.6% 19.4% 27.1% 0.72× 5.15
Over 165.5 points 16.3% 19.4% 16.6% 1.17× 5.15
Under 130.5 points 11.3% 15.0% 18.5% 0.81× 6.69
Over 170.5 points 9.8% 11.2% 11.4% 0.98× 8.96
Win both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Volunteers to win both halves 51.6% 50.4% 33.2% 1.52× 1.99
Florida State Seminoles to win both halves 3.2% 3.0% 14.5% 0.20× 33.65
Winning margin 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tennessee Volunteers by 11-15 18.7% 16.8% 11.6% 1.45× 5.97
Tennessee Volunteers by 6-10 17.6% 16.8% 14.4% 1.16× 5.97
Tennessee Volunteers by 16-20 16.1% 16.8% 7.6% 2.20× 5.97
Tennessee Volunteers by 1-5 13.4% 12.3% 16.2% 0.76× 8.11
Tennessee Volunteers by 21-25 11.1% 12.3% 5.6% 2.22× 8.11
Tennessee Volunteers by 26+ 10.4% 12.3% 7.9% 1.56× 8.11
Florida State Seminoles by 1-5 7.3% 7.5% 13.2% 0.57× 13.40
Florida State Seminoles by 6-10 3.5% 2.0% 10.8% 0.19× 49.30
Florida State Seminoles by 11-15 1.3% 2.0% 6.1% 0.34× 49.32
Florida State Seminoles by 16-20 0.4% 2.0% 3.3% 0.61× 49.32
Florida State Seminoles by 21-25 0.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.06× 49.33
Florida State Seminoles by 26+ 0.0% 2.0% 1.6% 1.30× 49.33
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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